As shown by the indicators on WUWT’s new ENSO/SST page there is a deeping of the La Niña that is starting to rival 2008 in depth. While it hasn’t yet reached the level of the 2008 event, indications are that it is possible to match or even exceed it.
The graph above from Australia’s BoM took a dip just today, going from last week’s value of approximately -0.9 to -1.4C.
Other NINO index indicators show similar recent drops:
For those unfamiliar with what these index graphics represent, here is a map that shows the regions covered:
The combined 3.4 index has been deemed a useful metric to gauge El Niño and La Niña events and thus you’ll see it more commonly referenced than the other indices.
Of course a picture is worth a thousand words:
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
As a complete beginner with sea temperatures – where does the warm water go during a La Nina?
I has not cooled, as that would take longer than this.
It cannot sink, as it is warm.
Has it just moved north, rather like an equatorial hurricane, which drifts north as it turns into an Atlantic depression and eventually dissipates?
That Sumatran volcanoes could really go off in the next few months, adding to the cold 😛
There has been talk of La Nina 3.4 SST going as long as -3 by November 2010 (if I remember correctly from Joe Bastardi). SST anomaly map already shows some areas within this range;
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif
We certainly now see more of a bias towards La Nina than we did in the late 20th century.
This will be the first period when we can observe in enough detail to disentangle the seperate global implications of each mode of the Pacific Oscillations for the air cicrculation systems.
Additionally the early 21st Century is already the first period when we can observe in enough detail to disentangle the seperate effects on the Polar Oscillations (and consequently all the air circulation systems) of different levels of solar activity.
I think we are going to see just how independent those oceanic and solar influences can each be.
I recommend that we watch how the air circulation systems move poleward or equatorward depending on which influence is the more dominant at any given time.
The oceans may be more powerful but the level of solar activity working via the polar oscillations seems to set limits on the oceanic effects as regards how far poleward the oceanic influences can push the air circulation systems.
Doesn’t La Nina bring warm winters to the U.S.?
Brad says:
August 31, 2010 at 3:43 am
There is a graphic on the new:
ENSO/Sea Level/Sea Surface Temperature Page
http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/ensosea-levelsea-surface-temperature-page/
Which is titled: Reference for El Niño and La Niña weather pattern effects
The graphic illustrates general patterns associated with El Niño and La Niña.
Actually Ralph the warm water isn’t there anymore, that was what El Nino was. The best place I found on the Web to have SST’s, Enso, PDO and other phenomena explained is to visit Bob Tisdales site. It is almost exclusively dedicated to the way the Oceans interact with Climate and Weather. Example here is what you are looking for in a nutshell:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2010/08/introduction-to-enso-amo-and-pdo-part-1.html
So you see during El Nino the warm water heads north to be cooled off and La Nina is actually when it recharges. However I recommed you venture over to Bob’s site and read the full article and peruse his archives and you will get caught up on SST’s very quickly.
Hurry up folks, we have to collect some firewood before the winter 🙂
On the other hand it is interesting that during El Nino time there was a hard winter in Europe last year.
I can find no link however, MSM TV news broadcasts at least on channels 7 and 10 in Australia are reporting Sydney has just had its coldest winter in 12-13 years (Depending on the channel). It was interesting a weatherman on channel 7 was saying over the last several weeks that the “winters of old are back”, interesting.
I doubt it’s directly correlated with La Niña or the voclanoes but ice extent has Increased the last couple of days!
Brad says:
August 31, 2010 at 3:43 am
Doesn’t La Nina bring warm winters to the U.S.?
It depends on exactly where that blocking High in the NE Pacific sits, and I imagine that the ‘Variable’ in the Polar Jet Stream is a monkey wrench too.
What I am most impressed with, right now, is the general state of the Southern Oceans. They are genuinely quite cool and growing colder. From watching the motions, a lot of the cold water appears to be feeding up from Antarctica.
The little girl is being most cooperative!
Ralph says: “As a complete beginner with sea temperatures – where does the warm water go during a La Nina?”
During a La Niña, the trade winds in the tropical Pacific renew and strengthen (they had weakened and reversed during the El Niño) and push the “leftover” warm water from the El Niño back to the western tropical Pacific. Ocean currents carry it north and south into the western North and South Pacific.
Ralph, you self-described yourself as “a complete beginner with sea temperatures.” I prepared the following Introduction to El Niño/La Niña for newcomers, so if you would, please let me know how and if I could improve it:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2010/08/introduction-to-enso-amo-and-pdo-part-1.html
twawki says: “There has been talk of La Nina 3.4 SST going as long as -3 by November 2010…”
The weekly NINO3.4 SST anomalies dropped below -1.5 deg C last week.
http://i37.tinypic.com/x3iscm.jpg
Right now they’re rivalling the levels of the 1988/89 La Nina which had the lowest values during the satellite era.
http://i38.tinypic.com/2u6lmv8.jpg
The graphs are from my Preliminary August 2010 SST Update:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2010/08/preliminary-august-2010-sst-anomaly.html
boballab (August 31, 2010 at 4:28 am): Thanks for the link and kind words.
Casper says: “Hurry up folks, we have to collect some firewood before the winter :)”
I’ve had to rake leaves already this summer, and I hate raking leaves (The electric motor on the leaf blower decided to start smoking after 2 minutes and that left 95% of the job to be done the old-fashioned way.)
What is noticeable is how steep the drop is this year compared to 2008, does that mean that it is likely to go lower before pulling out of it’s nosedive?
Hello Bob,
I’m trying to tease out the chicken and egg problem as regards the Trade Winds and SSTs.
I see that you take the view that the El Nino with it’s higher SSTs weakens the Trade Winds and the La Nina with it’s lower SSTs strengthens them.
I would say that the El Nino by expanding the tropical air masses pushes poleward the air circulation patterns that cause the Trade Winds so that they fade away whereas the La Nina by allowing the tropical air masses to contract again allows the air circulation systems that cause the Trade Winds to sink back equatorward so that theose winds resume once more.
I think both descriptions are consistent with your observations are they not ?
As expected this La Nina is on track, the northern hemisphere in parts can expect severe conditions this winter. The AAO is assisting the La Nina downtrend along with the general PDO state. The next PDO reading should be interesting.
The low solar output will compound these issues with the expected changes to the winter jet stream via low EUV. But there may be worse news to follow, a new type of sunspot that has emerged over the past 2 months that has a polarity reversing tendency actually reduces F10.7 Flux & EUV. Its early days but one metric to watch.
http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/196
In the last few weeks, the source of cooler water for a La Nina, the subsurface circulation pattern shown in this graphic.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream/tropics/images/la.jpg
…. has cooled off even further. Generally, it is 3C to 9C below normal and will slowly make its way to the surface (and/or cool off the water at the surface) so this La Nina is now certain to cool off even further and become a large event.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso/wkteq_xz.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif
There has never been a Super La Nina (more than -2.5C in the Nino 3.4 index, the largest was -2.24C) but this one now has the potential to get there. Expect the forecasts to reflect this cooling of the subsurface in the next forecasts.
Someone asked where does the warm water go during a La Nina? It piles up against the shallow Indonesian Islands at the equator to form the Pacific Warm Pool. Some of this warmer water then flows through the Islands into the Indian Ocean, some goes northwest towards Japan (and eventually warms up the north Pacific) AND some of it gets pushed downward, just north of New Guinea, to re-enter this subsurface circulation system where it is now forming the next El Nino for about 1 year from now (unless this La Nina gets big enough to form a 2 year event). One can now see this warm water from the last El Nino in the animations above. It is a continuous circulation that speeds up and slows down and moves around a little; in other words, an oscillation.
My theory is that abnormally warm water in the tropical Pacific ends up in the Arctic ocean where it appears to go into the latent heat of fusion in Arctic ice melt. It takes 144 BTUs to turn one pound of ice at 32F into one pound of water at 32F. A BTU is the amount of energy it takes to raise one pound of water by 1 degree F. Most interesting is that this heat is called “latent” because it doesn’t register on a thermometer so when we look at sea surface temperatures the warm water just disappears like magic with no thermometer able to find it. In the few years following the 1998 El Nino, which was one of the largest on record, the Arctic ice cap shrunk by 1 million square kilometers and has stayed shrunken by that amount since then.
2011 will be cooler then 2008….
SOI for August is still strongly positive finishing at 17.09.
http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/
Sorry off topic but just to wish you all the best Mr Watts.