I’m sure WUWT readers will recall this excellent guest post at WUWT just over one year ago:
Now published in E&E Volume 21, Number 4 / August 2010
The thunderstorm thermostat hypothesis: How clouds and thunderstorms control the Earth’s temperature
Authors
Willis Eschenbach
Abstract
The Thunderstorm Thermostat Hypothesis is the hypothesis that tropical clouds and thunderstorms actively regulate the temperature of the earth. This keeps the earth at an equilibrium temperature regardless of changes in the forcings. Several kinds of evidence are presented to establish and elucidate the Thermostat Hypothesis-historical temperature stability of the Earth, theoretical considerations, satellite photos, and a description of the equilibrium mechanism.
See it here, PDF is available (£18.00 worthwhile to support E&E in my opinion). Or, read the WUWT version here:
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[snip] to ‘tips and notes’ please. 😉 RT-mod
Congratulations on your publication, Willis.
Great article. I am watching thermals and a rapid thunderstorm build up in the last 30 minutes. When the storm hits, it will remove a lot of heat. Wind sheers are examples of redistribution of heat.
Nice, approachable paper. My biggest beef with the modelers that produce catastrophes (like Greenland ice collapse in 400 years with CO2 at 400ppm! see http://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/4/233/2010/tcd-4-233-2010.html) is that they cannot model local convection because of lack of resolution. When they parametrize the convective activity they get the answer they want like Greenland melting with CO2 at 400ppm.
I wonder if a more quantitative follow-on paper could include measurements of areal coverage of thunderstorms (or some other measurement of convective activity).
congratulations Willis
Hearty congrats Willis. Well done!
Very interesting hypothesis. It requires a meticulous read.
I also think the tandem of tropics and poles are the key. One aspect which needs further consideration is that polar temperatures (at least in the Arctic have oscillated to a higher degree than the global estimate, as verified by large coal deposits in Spitsbergen, not to mention huge oil reserves notably in the Alaska’s North Slope etc.
The Arctic’s ability to reradiate all the excess thermal energy from the tropics is limited and has resulted in temperatures rise there, which also may be currently the case. Transport of the thermal energy is mainly by the Gulf Stream current; since there is a high correlation between the arctic temperatures and the strength of the arctic magnetic field, it can be speculated that the efficiency of the energy transfer is a function of the the Earth’s magnetic field strength.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/NFC1.htm
“However, this would imply a gradual decrease in GHG forcing which exactly matched the incremental billion-year increase in solar forcing to the present value. This seems highly unlikely.
A much more likely candidate is some natural mechanism which has regulated the earth’s temperature over geological time”
Why?
Some sweeping statements here without substantiation
My congratulations also!
This is the paper presented on video by Willis Eschenbach at the 4th conference:
Part 1
Part 2
Video is mightier than the pen!
OT but please let through!
There has been a real debate going on for the last several days at Bishop Hill around Tamino’s review of Andrew Montford’s The Hockey Illusion. Both sides have been active. Judith Curry weighed in with a very pointed response to the review that is well worth reading. The thread may be found at
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2010/7/22/tamino-on-the-hockey-stick-illusion.html#comments
Enjoy, all.
Oops. Meant Tamino’s review of THI on Real Climate.
Here’s a clickable link to the discussion of “The Hockey Stick Illusion” that RayG linked to:
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2010/7/22/tamino-on-the-hockey-stick-illusion.html#comments
Congratulations, Willis! I remember when you first posted this on WUWT, it is an impressive and thoughtful analysis.
I’ve long been impressed with the power & function of atmospheric cells, especially the Hadley Cells, and your logical argument comparing these systems to a heat engine is very compelling. Natural systems tend to be rather simple once you understand the basics; however, the climate-change crowd seem very focused upon their narrow areas of expertise, and downplay all others. Imagine that.
Dr. Joel Norris of Scripps Institution gave a very good colloquium presentation on cloud feedbacks to Fermilab on 12 May, 2010, please see the video archive and powerpoint slides at:
http://www-ppd.fnal.gov/EPPOffice-w/colloq/colloq.html
He also challenged conventional thinking of the modeling crew! Cheers & best.
Nicely done Willis. As an amateur scientist, you should feel proud of your achievement. I look forward to reading your paper in detail, or at least watching the above referenced videos. I remember reading your post about this and had a few questions about it. Undoubtedly, thunderstorms do act to control excessive temperature buildup from solar insolation, and so are at least a local and regional “thermostat” in this regard, and if thunderstorms (i.e. cumulonimbus) were the only kind of cloud in the world, and only came out during the heat of the day, and never formed at night, etc. then life would be even more simple.
Anyway, congrats.
Congratulations Willis. Thank you Amino Acids, for putting up the two videos of a really excellent presentation. It’s great to be able to put a face to the name. Looks like there’s hope for us self-taughters yet.
Congrats Willis.
I’d sit down and read it now, but I’ve got to get ready for a gig tonight. Tomorrow??? I’ll be hiking Yosemite! Monday read it is!
Mike
Obsolete atmospheric circulation model.
Read Leroux “dynamic analysis of weather and climate” 2ed, springer 2010
Congratulations! Very interesting read!
When I read this, one thought comes to mind; Surely, SURELY most, or at least some of this is in meteorology text-books already?
Surely ? I would think that some of it is not, and some is mentioned here to “educate” the reader? Like the “Governor” talk?
In that case, it would be nice to know which parts are actually “the new idea” ?
(Sorry, I am not a meteorologist)
Thanks.
Congratulations Willis.
I was very impressed with your thermostat post last year, and happy to hear that it has been published. An elegant explanation of natural regulation which does not require the coincidence of forcing balance that Darkinbad alludes to above.
Is there a silver lining in the clouds? Only time will tell.
————-
Willis,
i love especially your way of visualizing the distribution of thunderstorms by using the perspective from the sun, a very ingenious step! Congrats!
Very good Willis-might I add I see someone who has experienced that heat engine from
say, the bridge or a mast of a Boat or Ship or the Cockpit of an Aircraft. I’ve had similar thoughts over the years fighting fire from a Four-Engine Douglas, not nearly so reasoned or articulate, great job!