I’m having a free day today in Brisbane, after an intensive week of travel and presentations. I feel zorched, but I still hope to catch up on correspondences and posts. If you have not booked into the tour yet, there are two weeks left in the tour. Details here.
The other candidate for QOTW via NSIDC’s Dr. Mark Serreze merited its own story here.
National Geographic used to be one of my favorite magazines and television programs. I don’t subscribe anymore and I can hardly bear to watch the TV programs because they have so much alarmism in them. I had an ad popup on my MSN messenger which spieled gloom and doom for us puny humans, so I decided to check it out. While it is certainly true that we could see another “Carrington Event” and given our dependence on i-everythings and satellites in orbit these days, such a disruption could be more globally problematic than in the past.
But the NatGeo quote describing the video made me chuckle, not for the visions of dead iPhones, but for doing the very thing we skeptics get accused of, confusing weather and climate.
Here’s the quote from National Geographic Videos:
Just as the sun allows our atmosphere to remain stable, so too can it destroy civilization.
Ummm, confusing weather with climate there guys? From day to night, the atmosphere is anything but stable. In fact it is quite dynamic. Just ask anyone in Kansas about right now.
Plus, cycle 24 so far doesn’t look like a barn burner. That’s not to say we can’t get a big flare/CME, but the likelihood is lower with a quieter sun.
Watch the video by clicking below:
One of the slides from David Archibald’s presentation during our joint tour suggests a weakening solar cycle 24 and 25. Globally, that could be far more troublesome than some dead iPhones and power outages.
We can do without iPhones, but hungry masses due to declining growing zones tend to get a bit more testy than texters gone wild.
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If we are wrongfooted into mitigating a warming that isn’t happening instead of adapting to a cooling that is happening, there’ll be Hell to pay, and it will feature stampedes of apocolyptic horses; hunger, plagues, and war.
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Hi Anthony,
I have been following the solar cycle updates on this blog for a while. It seems like the sun had been quiet for a while now.
Still the global temps as reported by Dr. Roy for the last few months are still close to the highest on our [limited] records.
What is going on? When should we expect the global temparatures to be affected? Looking backwards, how long was the lag between the Dalton minimum kicking-in till the tempratures actually dropped?
REPLY: See the next post is a few hours – lag time – A
A new explanation is needed, and the most logical one is here:
http://www.holoscience.com/news.php?article=74fgmwne
“I feel zorched,…”
lol But it beats feeling rorted!
Hope you are managing to have some fun down there, what with all the travel etc. Lots of nice Sheilas down there I reckon!
Dr. Raymond Stantz:
What he means is Old Testament, Mr. Mayor. Real wrath of God type stuff! Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies! Rivers and seas boiling!
Dr. Egon Spengler:
Forty years of darkness, earthquakes, and volcanos!
Winston Zeddemore:
The dead rising from the grave!
Dr. Peter Venkman:
Human sacrifices, dogs and cats living together! Mass hysteria!
Wait a sec…the sky is falling again?
Just as the sun allows our atmosphere to remain stable, so too can it destroy civilization.
Humm. I am thinking it would be good to honour a difference between the terms ‘stable’ and terms for equilibrium and static (not dynamic). One of the marvellous things Ian Stewart taught me about chaos theory is that dynamical systems can be stable but in dis-equilibrium. If we honour this distinction, and recognise something like this in the dynamics of climate systems, then we dont have to make the distinction between weather and climate – which is entirely indistinct anyway.
“One of the slides from David Archibald’s presentation during our joint tour suggests a weakening solar cycle 24 and 25.”
Dr Leif seems more inclined towards a kind of cycle 14 scenario. After reading more than a few of his papers, I am inclined to agree. Not that I know anything more than the next armchair solar physicist wannabee… However, should Archibald prove correct we will “have some ‘splainin to do”.
Cheers!
Who will be the first to complain about comparing current solar cycles to past ones?
😉
I feel the same way about NatGeo. Used to like articles and documentaries, but not now. Guess they have gone too far to change now.
Layman routinely graphs SC 14 and SC 5 vs this one. He calls it more like SC 5, and I have to agree based on the data so far.
http://www.landscheidt.info/?q=node/50
Hu Duck Xing says:
June 20, 2010 at 4:25 pm
Is your Ghostbusters reference due the fact that the Sta-Puft Marshmallow man was your best friend as a child and is now the destroyer of the world? That’s quite a stream of consciousness you have going there. :b
Joe Bastardi on the hysteria about “huge space storm” from the sun. He talks too about the forecast for Solar Cycle 24 being revised:
http://www.accuweather.com/video/96827541001/run-hide-the-sun-is-coming-to-get-you-%28if-you-trust-nasa%29.asp?channel=vbbastaj
Warning: for those sensitive about Theodor Landscheidt you may not want to watch the video. 😉
Here’s the quote from National Geographic Videos:
“Just as the sun allows our atmosphere to remain stable, so too can it destroy civilization.”
=============
Is this a threat ?
It would be very prudent to design expensive and vital electrical equipment to resist damage from such an event. Our existing power delivery infrastruction should be shielded as soon as practical. If a large number of these transformers were destroyed simultaneously it would be months, and could be years until they could be replaced. I don’t think we should scream and runs for the hills, but it is an issue that should be addressed. Of course, our illustrious congress will do nothing because you can’t buy votes spending money that way.
Bruce King says:
June 20, 2010 at 4:43 pm
I feel the same way about NatGeo. Used to like articles and documentaries, but not now.
Me as well, can’t stand it anymore.
I dont have a mobile or any I-things, I grow alot of my own food, I have a woodburner for heat and cooking and trees for fuel, I have a gas cooker and a store of gas, I have a stove kettle and a charcoal BBQ, theres plently of game around, I have a backup rainwater water tank. I think I could manage ok for a few weeks at least- its good to know I am not dependant on others, call me paranoid, but in an earthquake and tsunami prone country living next to a dormant volcanoe, I think its not that bad an idea (civil defence even encourages it).
To many people today are reliant on technology for day to day living and hence we are suceptible. Dont become to reliant on others!
Hu Duck Xing says:
June 20, 2010 at 4:25 pm
Dr. Raymond Stantz:
What he means is Old Testament, Mr. Mayor. Real wrath of God type stuff! Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies! Rivers and seas boiling!
Dr. Egon Spengler:
Forty years of darkness, earthquakes, and volcanos!
Winston Zeddemore:
The dead rising from the grave!
Dr. Peter Venkman:
Human sacrifices, dogs and cats living together! Mass hysteria!
So, you were ‘channeling’ Al Gore, then?
I note some comments about a blogger canelling his subscription to National Geographic. In Australia we have a magazine, Australian Geographic, which I once subscribed to. To a small degree it was similar to NG, but was heavily into advertising. It did stories, in many instances about the nuts and bolts of Australian life. It also did stories with international significance.
Recently it had an article about a Greenland glacier and you can guess the rest. The story was lifted from a Greenpeace article, but it was evident that AG had made some attempt for impartiality, by minor adjustments in the text. However, the “doozie” was that they had to include, in the top right hand corner of the page a picture of a polar bear (mind you the picture of the polar bear had nothing to do with the article) with the caption “Casualty of Change”.
I sent them a letter telling them that I was not going to renew my subscription. It is a pity, as by and large, the magazine was quite good.
“u.k.(us) says:
June 20, 2010 at 5:19 pm
Here’s the quote from National Geographic Videos:
“Just as the sun allows our atmosphere to remain stable, so too can it destroy civilization.”
=============
Is this a threat ?”
The fun thing is, you know, the sun allows our atmosphere to be stable, the sun can also destroy civilization, but what it can’t do is: cause climate change. No. That’s something only humans can do.
Atmosphere is anything but stable here in Kansas tonight. Take it from me–I live here.
So, let’s see. All those Roman I-PADS, version II.0, were the cause of the destruction of the Roman Empire, via an evil Carrington blast?
I have a question for Leif Svalgaard if he checks this thread.
What is the probability of any single large CME/flare event being pointed close enough to the Earth to actually cause a disruption to our electrical systems/devices? A ball park figure would be sufficient.
If the telegraph stations burst into flame back in 1850, how about today’s windmills? Can you imagine a range of hills at night, with long rows of flaming windmills?
It will not, however, cause my wood stove to burst into flame. My 1980 Econoline Van (with no computerized parts) will not be seriously effected, as long as it continues to sit in the back yard and annoy the neighbors. Also I have an old tube radio, which ought work fine after the super-solar-storm, especially if it isn’t plugged in and turned on, during the storm. My goats will likely continue to give milk, and my garden will continue to grow.
In other words, a super-solar-storm will turn me from an anachronism, into a person-ahead-of-the-curve, in the twinkling of an eye.
I just went to check on the effect of the Dalton Minimum and saw this graph on Wikipedia here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:2000_Year_Temperature_Comparison.png
and now I’m totally confused, as I thought the literature says that the MWP was 2 degs warmer than now. This graph shows quite the opposite.
However, since I came across a Wikipedia entry which was total fiction about my father running drugs across the NZ alps in small aircraft, I have totally lost faith in it.
Has this bloke Connolley been at this too?