Climate “Twilight of the Gods”

From National Review online, the story a modern opera, though not by Wagner.

Climate Götterdämmerung
File:Twilight cloud Lorraine 2006-07-11.jpg
Image from Wikimedia

Exaggeration and alarmism have been a chronic weakness of environmentalism since it became an organized movement in the 1960s. Every ecological problem was instantly transformed into a potential world-ending crisis, from the population bomb to the imminent resource depletion of the “limits to growth” fad of the 1970s to acid rain to ozone depletion, always with an overlay of moral condemnation of anyone who dissented from environmental correctness. With global warming, the environmental movement thought it had hit the jackpot — a crisis sufficiently long-range that it could not be falsified and broad enough to justify massive political controls on resource use at a global level. Former Colorado senator Tim Wirth was unusually candid when he remarked in the early days of the climate campaign that “we’ve got to ride the global-warming issue. Even if the theory of global warming is wrong, we will be doing the right thing — in terms of economic policy and environmental policy.” (Not surprisingly, after Wirth left the Senate and the Clinton administration he ended up at the United Nations.)

The global-warming thrill ride looks to be coming to an end, undone by the same politically motivated serial exaggeration and moral preening that discredited previous apocalypses. On the heels of the East Anglia University “Climategate” scandal have come a series of embarrassing retractions from the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) regarding some of the most loudly trumpeted signs and wonders of global warming, such as the ludicrous claim that Himalayan glaciers would disappear within 30 years, that nearly half of the Amazon jungle was at imminent risk of destruction from a warming planet, and that there was a clear linkage between climate change and weather-related economic losses. The sources for these claims turned out to be environmental advocacy groups — not rigorous, peer-reviewed science.

Read the complete essay at National Review Online

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87 thoughts on “Climate “Twilight of the Gods”

  1. For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction (a simplification of course).
    The backlash on this one is snowballing.
    Amplification factors are at work here, and no, they are not the claimed scientific ones, they are of the mass-rejection reactionary type.
    Every gamble has it’s price of failure.

  2. With global warming, the environmental movement thought it had hit the jackpot — a crisis sufficiently long-range that it could not be falsified and broad enough to justify massive political controls on resource use at a global level.’

    This is what angers me the most. Their irresponsible evangelical zeal is costing the west its economy. They should all be in gaol.

  3. I don’t believe it has run its course. Politicians are continuing as if nothing has happened. They are ignoring the current realities and continuing to use “saving the planet” as a lever to get their programs adopted, many of which have nothing to do with “saving the planet” and are simply social engineering according to their political ideology. They use environmentalism as a lever to get people to buy into their programs with are not environmentalist at all. Many of them are nothing more than international redistribution of wealth, or the setting up of cronies to make billions in new markets that they create.

  4. From FoxNews: In Thursday’s issue of the journal Nature, four IPCC authors call for reform, including Christy, who suggests the outright dumping of the panel itself in favor of an effort modeled after Wikipedia (my italics), the online encyclopedia. A fifth author, writing in Nature, argues the IPCC rules are fine but need to be better enforced.

    ———————————————————-

    There seems to be a battle brewing between various countries who have recently announced (or will announce in the near future ) their own versions of the IPCC. So I’d expect there will be a long running dispute over who’s “Climate Research Center” is to be believed. A pox on all their houses.

  5. Many readers know that the Club of Rome, which became an elitist organization seeking to use CO2, global warming and other “threats” to promote one-world government as a solution to the “tragedy of the commons,” was the moral imperative behind Maurice Strong, Al Gore, and yes, Obama.

    Now that the real climate is not cooperating with them, will they use the on-coming several decades of cooling as their next imperative disaster to put them in charge of our destinies?

    You might note that two of the original founders of the Club of Rome we highly egalitarian, and quit in disgust when the organization moved towards what was best for the elites!

  6. Talk about couting chickens!

    It is not the end of climate alarmism yet.
    Nor is it the beginning of the end,
    but it is the end of the beginning of the dark light of perverted climate science.

  7. Here is an example reported on by ABC news. 80% of the money spent on “green” energy projects goes directly overseas.

    http://abcnews.go.com/WN/wind-power-equal-job-power/story?id=9759949

    “According to our estimates, about 6,000 jobs have been created overseas, and maybe a couple hundred have been created in the U.S.”

    This is “redistribution of wealth” as would be along the lines of international socialism but “green jobs” is a big selling point for the politicians involved. The problem is that they are not providing “green jobs” in the areas where their constituents live, the jobs are created overseas.

  8. What is tragic here is that there are some areas that do have an environmental problem due to land management issues, but the blame was put on AGW instead. If the land management issue had been addressed, instead of the imaginary boggy man, a lot of folks would be better off. These manias are sadly diverters of valuable resources that could have been much more wisely spent. But Charles Mackay put it all down in black and white in 1839 and not much has changed since.

  9. “we’ve got to ride the global-warming issue. Even if the theory of global warming is wrong, we will be doing the right thing ”

    Reminds me very much of a scene from “The Oulaw Josey wales” when Captain Redlegs states ” doin good aint got no end” in reference to the murder of southern men, women and children…..and we all know what happened to him.
    Lets hope global climate warming cooling change goes the same way as Redlegs.

  10. “The next frontier is likely to be a fresh debate about basic climate sensitivity itself. There have been several recent peer-reviewed papers suggesting much lower climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases than the IPCC “consensus” computer models predict. And alternative explanations for observed climate change in the Arctic and elsewhere, such as shifts in ocean currents and wind patterns, should receive a second look.”

    They key question is specific humidity in the radiative zone.  If it doesn’t go up, CO2 based global warming is toast.  Latest papers (e.g. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/news/2010/stratospheric_water_vapor_impacts_global_warming.html  ) indictate that specific humidity has gone down as CO2 has gone up indicating strong negative feedbacks.

    Arctic sea ice extent went down in previous years due to wind and currents.  So what’s next?  Scientist will be empowered to speak the truth?  Weren’t they already?  Science needs a backbone transplant.

    Mike Ramsey

  11. You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time.

    Abraham Lincoln.

  12. The warmers will not give up easily. They are too heavily invested in their cause. I would not expect them to give an inch. They will explain away any contradiction to their beliefs. You have heard it all, “that was discredited long ago, that is not peer reviewed, who is paying you, you are a denier, you are a polluter, this is weather, not climate, maybe it will cool for 20 years…this will just give us more time to prepare for the inevitable warming” and such.

    These people, or at least some of them, have an end game in mind, the complete and radical ‘change’ of society and our political system as we know it. Global warming is a means to this end for some.

    The word ‘change’ is often used by our President. He announced Monday his desire to create a new climate (global warming) department. It did not matter at all to him that Washington DC. where this announcement was made, had its biggest snow storm in history, with over 32 inches recorded at Dulles Airport, and that Washington was only inches away from the most snow in any one season in the history of our Capital.

    Expect a long and hard fight, much like our victory over Germany and Japan in the War.

  13. Scientists seek better way to do climate report
    Feb 10 01:00 PM US/Eastern

    WASHINGTON (AP) – Some climate scientists are calling for drastic changes in how future United Nations climate reports are done.

    The proposals to reform the International Panel on Climate Change are published in Thursday’s issue of the journal Nature. The suggested changes come after four embarrassing but small errors have popped up recently in one of the panel’s four reports.

    The climate change panel is working on its fifth set of reports, to be published in 2013. The panel won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007 for documenting climate change and projecting global warming’s future effects.

    A better way to do it?

    At this point, last I heard, it is only the lack of ability to generate truly random numbers that is keeping us from doing a “million monkeys with a million typewriters” computer simulation. Somewhere in the output should be something more accurate and scientific with no politics. Any recent developments on the randomness?

    Besides, this could be helpful in preventing job loss. The UK Met office may soon be facing layoffs, and they have lots of people with modeling experience plus support staff for the supercomputer(s). Might as well put them to good use, at last.

  14. I like this part of this post the most:

    “The global-warming thrill ride looks to be coming to an end…”

    I will read and cherish this forever, and pass it on to my grandchildren, reminding them that this is what “conservatives” of the early 21st century thought of global warming. It will either be a tesimony to the rationality of conservativism, or a testimony to the danger of not seeing beyond the politics of an issue to the basic science underneath. It gets more difficult for the average citizen, not well schooled in the basics of science, to cut through the BS on both sides, and see the underlying physics, which are actually quite simple. Either the earth is taking in more net energy from the sun each day than it is emitting back into space or it is not and if it is not, then either that imbalance is being caused by an increasingly dense blanket of CO2 and methane or it is not, and if is, then either that dense blanket of CO2 is human caused or it is not. These are simple questions, and have nothing to do with political leanings…

  15. We are seeing systematic desensitization to the larmist claims. None of the tragedies have occured. If we do get one, it could be that we ignore it.

    Last week I visited a building show. There was a “detect radon” vendor.
    I haven’t heard much about the radon scare lately.

  16. “R. Gates (12:42:59) :
    [...]
    the BS on both sides, and see the underlying physics, which are actually quite simple.”

    Two words: Ferenc Miskolczi.

  17. Anthropogenic Global Warming is REAL… but only in cities according to how NOAA computes global temperatures. They shouldn’t tax CO2, in fact they should tax concrete and asphalt.

  18. The beautiful thing about global warming was the alleged cause from burning fossil fuels. That’s an environmentalist’s hat trick!

  19. geoff pohanka (12:41:12) :

    “The warmers will not give up easily. They are too heavily invested in their cause.”

    I would rephrase that to say “ WE are too heavily invested in their cause.”

    As long as millions billions of taxpayer dollars flow to these government and academic “research” organizations, there will be no end to climate alarmism.

  20. geoff pohanka (12:41:12) – It also didn’t matter that the announcement had to be made over the telephone , as no one could get to the National Press Club for the news conference . This is even better than Hanson’s coal plant demonstration getting snowed out last year . In March .

  21. I think you guys are dellusional if you think the global warming political movement is dead. The politicians from all stripes are playing games with you and the civil war is near, repent! Buy carbon credits…

  22. 1. Does this mean that AGW has reached a tipping point?

    2. Re KeithGuy (12:39:26) :

    “You can fool some of the people all of te time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time.

    Abraham Lincoln.”

    There is a 4th point that Lincoln didn’t say and that is

    If caught trying to fool people then all of your pronouncements will be viewed in that light

  23. Politicians needn’t fear but both science and environmentalism are likely to take foundation shaking hits.

  24. The facts do not matter!!
    For those who believe (or hope) that Cap and Trade is dead this year go to:
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/02/09/AR2010020903526.html
    We need to keep in mind that once the government get their greedy hands on our energy supply with a scaled back program, they will in time expand the program and take total control along the lines of the House bill with the ultimate ruin of our economy along the lines of other Countries (think of other countries that have nationalized their energy supply like Cuba, Russia, Mexico, Venzuela, etc).
    Congress, including some naive Republicans, are deaf as to what is happening with the CRU and IPCC reports because the MSM continues to ignore and cover up Climategate and IPCC distortions.

    We need to be proactive to stop all cap and trade initiatives or carbon tax.

  25. Well I listen to a lot of radio; and they interview a lot of “politicians” and a lot of Republicans (dems too); even some “Conservatives”, and it never ceases to amaze me, that these people (all of them) just keep charging ahead; as if the only problem is that it is “a bit alarmist”.

    Yes we’ve had some warming; we’ll continue to have some warming, and some cooling; and some things humans do aren’t very good for the environment; and all of that will continue; and nothing much we do or can do, will have ny real influence.

    But too many people will continue to believe that “the science is settled”, and too many others think they just haven’t got the statistics quite right yet; maybe an adjustment of the trend line slope; tweak that R^2 a little bit, and pretty soon we will have it right.

    Well I think the science is quite wrong; it’s the water stupid; and almost nothing else matters very much, so long as the sun continues to rise in the east, and set in the west.

    I’m sick of those who think we just don’t have the story quite right; and even sicker of those who think government tinkering can influence the outcome. Well they can destroy economies; but they can’t influence the climate.

  26. R. Gates (12:42:59) :
    …see the underlying physics, which are actually quite simple. Either the earth is taking in more net energy from the sun each day than it is emitting back into space or it is not and if it is not, then either that imbalance is being caused by an increasingly dense blanket of CO2 and methane or it is not, and if is, then either that dense blanket of CO2 is human caused or it is not. These are simple questions, and have nothing to do with political leanings…

    In a lab, the science behind CO2’s behavior as a GHG is quite simple. Applying it to our atmosphere is not. In fact, by most accounts, an increase in CO2 by itself would cause a minor increase in equilibrium temperature.

    BUT, that is not what Hansen/Patchouli/RC/CRU/IPCC/etc is saying. They are saying that it could cause run away warming (tipping point theory) or, at least, an increase many times over what the simple science would say due to forcings. There is also not a comprehensive, proven, energy budget as you describe today.

    If it were as simple as you think it is, the AGW/CAGW crowd would not have to rely on computer models to support their theories

  27. “Exaggeration and alarmism” are traits of organised environmentalism,says the first sentence.

    The second sentence claims: “Every” ecological issue was “instantly transformed into a potential world-ending crisis”.

    Who was supposed to be exaggerating,again?

  28. R. Gates, I’m not a “conservative” nor a “liberal” nor a “republican” nor a “democrat” nor any other political label, not even “independent” fits since most “independents” compromise their principles too much.

    I stand for political decisions informed by hard science facts not wishful thinking driven by monied or fear based agendas nor doomsaying by soothsayers using digital tree ring entrails in their future casting predictions of doom.

    Show the proof of the alleged AGW hypothesis or quit the wining about doom and gloom as if it’s true and certain.

    There are billions of doom scenarios that could befall the planet, do we worry about them all? Nope. Why should we fear nonsense doom and gloom that has no substantial evidence?

    As far as I can tell asteroids, even small ones, are a much bigger concern and the monies wasted on the alleged AGW hypothesis could be better spent on building up surveillance and possible asteroid defense infrastructure so that we are prepared for the next big strike asteroid to hit Earth. Maybe it will hit your city?

    If you actually read the materials at this site and others you’d have answers to some of the big questions you ask, or at least some serious clues. The Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) has some very interesting and potent results that you might want to look into. See the articles here about it.

    After years of looking I see zero conclusive evidence of the alleged AGW Hypothesis. If you have such evidence please show it.

    A basic principle in the scientific method is that those that put forward a hypothesis (or those that support the hypothesis) must prove it and this is the case especially when they are using their hypothesis to scare the entire planet into global carbon fear based hysteria and attempting global political domination with a literal “carbon taxing and enforcement new world order government” as they attempted for Copenhagen.

    So far nada peep of solid evidence that the alleged “blanket of C02″ can do what is claimed of it or that it’s man made. Actually the ERBE shows it doesn’t work the way that the scientists making the dire predictions thought.

    Proving causation is much more difficult than showing a correlation.

    The planet is NOT a simple equation. It is a set of very complex interacting systems that can’t be predicted due to the fact that it’s component systems generate internal randomness – aka chaos – which makes prediction impossible.

    Simple and complex systems that generate internal randomness have been proven to be impossible to predict by Dr. Stephen Wolfram (see chapter two of A New Kind of Science). The only way to know their outcome is to observe them in real time as they unfold. This is the result of internal randomness which can’t be predicted.

    Once you understand that then you can see that when you mix all of the sub-systems that make up the planet Earth’s eco-system (and the influences of the Moon, Sol and surprisingly even the Milky Way via cosmic rays influencing clouds which along with other forms of water form over 85% of the greenhouse effect on Earth) you might be able to grasp the futility of attempting to predict the future of the environment… it ends up being no different than soothsaying with entrails… all due to randomness generated within simple and complex systems.

    Chaos ruins all predictions of the future climate of Earth… simple fact of life that no computer program or equation will ever solve. Not ever, because you must let the systems with internally generated randomness run in order to know their outcome – and that’s a mathematically proven fact.

    pwl

    http://www.PathsToKnowledge.net?s=soothsaying

  29. From the article, “…. these revelations do not in and of themselves mean that the idea of ……….. is false.” Amazing statement that, for they made it right after acknowledging the Tim Wirth statement: “we’ve got to ride the global-warming issue. Even if the theory of global warming is wrong, we will be doing the right thing — in terms of economic policy and environmental policy.” The revelation of the falsification of science or the use of non-scientific data to prove a theory of course does not on to its self falsify the theory! But taken in the context of the elitist attitude that the means justifies the ends, as expressed by Tim Wirth and others of his ilk, wouldn’t it be prudent to assume ALL their theoretical models are flawed , ALL their assumptions are faulty, and ALL their outrageously exaggerated claims are – – well, just that and throw the whole bag of worms in the trash – – and start over?
    In other words, based on EVERYTHING that has been exposed by all the opened “gates” we KNOW that, at best, they do NOT KNOW that humans/CO2 have any effect on global environments and at worst, they know we/it does NOT! But hey, we here (mostly) know it’s NEVER been about the science or even the theory. It’s about power and the flow of money and how policy defines each, as so clearly stated by Mr. Wirth! That’s the REAL story and why the house of cards will eventually collapse. It’s the essence of the difference between the truth and the facts – “The truth is (always) more important than the facts.” Frank Lloyd Wright

  30. Can anyone provide a link to the Tim Wirth quote above in the post? I’ve seen it quoted on the blogs, but have never seen the interview it was in. I didn’t see it in the link–did I just miss it?

  31. John of Kent (12:20:13) :

    “Talk about couting chickens! It is not the end of climate alarmism yet.”

    There are other forces at work that may make the ‘Climate Debate’ a moot point.
    I.E. Chinese coal production had been increasing at an exponential rate. It appears that the production rate may not be sustainable.

    China’s massive investment in nuclear power as well as massive investment in wind as well as massive investments in replacing 27% efficient coal fired plants with 44% efficient coal fired plants would tend to confirm this.

    Europes coal mines with the exception of Ukraine,Kazakstan and Russia are in decline.

    The ‘doomsday’ scenarios were all based on
    A) An unrestrained growth of CO2 emissions
    B) Strong climate feedback mechanisms

    Condition ‘A’ currently appears unlikely to happen looking at what investments the Chinese are making for purely economic reasons.

    Condition ‘B’ is continually being whittled down by ‘better science’.

  32. “NickB. (13:18:16) :
    [...]
    If it were as simple as you think it is, the AGW/CAGW crowd would not have to rely on computer models to support their theories.”

    Also, they would not have to sex up the “most heavily scrutinized document in the history of mankind” (the IPCC AR4) with spurious claims.

  33. The middle of the road stance is, surely, adaptation. And there are some unlikely allies in this: read Stewart Brand’s latest ‘Whole Earth Discipline‘, and it is clear that there is a splintering of the entire movement from within.

    Brand advocates moving to cities (concentrate service delivery, allow opportunity, release women from rural idiocy, and generate real wealth), nuclear power (deal with concentrated waste instead of millions of smokestacks) and generally drives a Sherman tank through a whole bunch of environmental shibboleths.

    Add to this the ‘Resilient Community‘ effort from John Robb and crew, and we have a large part of the adaptation recipe right there before us.

    The analogy here should be to the Reformation, which blew apart a corrupt and arrogant medaeival Catholic Church for ever. Climategate is about 1517 on that scale: the nailing up of Luther’s theses. There’s a bit of water to go under the bridge until we get to the 1520’s, when Henry VIII figured out that he could get a twofer: his old marriage declared null, and (by declaring himeself head of the Church in England), he could clip the ticket on the Church’s takings. Which he finally got, 100%, by the dissolution of the monasteries, in 1536-8.

    The AGW frenzy is fed by funding, just as was the Catholic Church. It’s fun and cathartic to do the iconoclastic stuff – tear down the brazen images, paint over the elaborate frescoes, and generally try to eradicate the outward vestiges of the belief system.

    But it’s a better ploy, after that emotion subsides, to go after the AGW funding. Cut off the oxygen. The neat thing is, it makes better economic sense, too. Instead of wasting a lot of scarce dollars on researching ‘the effects of climate change on the mating habits of the Greater Nebraskan Loon’, it would be better use of that dosh to get one of Henry VIII’s twofers: say, accelerate production of electric cars/build many small-scale nuclear plants And stop giving petrodollars to unfriendly regimes.

    Oh wait. ‘Accelerate’. My bad. Work on the braking software, too.

  34. “Ray (13:27:41) :

    DirkH (12:53:11) :

    Here is the analysis of the paper by the people at Real Climate:

    http://www.realclimate.org/wiki/index.php?title=Ferenc_Miskolczi

    It would really take a few physicists to review that paper and see if the guys at RC are right or wrong.”

    Ray, i don’t consider RealClimate impartial in any way. And no, thank you, won’t go there, it’s a waste of time. It’s as censored as it gets over there.

  35. Engiiner (12:19:54) :

    Many readers know that the Club of Rome, which became an elitist organization seeking to use CO2, global warming and other “threats” to promote one-world government as a solution to the “tragedy of the commons,” was the moral imperative behind Maurice Strong, Al Gore, and yes, Obama.

    There is also GLOBE International, a trans-national quango of politicians fixing UN climate policy behind closed doors.

  36. Oh BTW Ray , Gavin Schmidt proudly boasted that F. Miskolczi had made glaring mathematical errors that Gavin would not expose just yet but give it to some students to find and debunk. That’s quite a while ago now and of course nothing came after that announcement.

    Don’t know if i read that on the RC thread you mentioned -i might have visited in december or not, i’m not sure- or in the WUWT thread for discussion of Miskolczi that you funnily didn’t mention and that you may find by entering Miskolczi in that little search box up there.

    RC really looks like the emperor’s new clothes to me.

  37. No, I don’t believe its over. But it doesn’t hurt to continue to point out the fallacies of some of the recent adventures of our quasi-scientific environmentalists. It would be a great help now if some were made accountable. IMHO

  38. DirkH (13:34:20) :

    I know how bent they are at RC but their wiki page is a nice place to know exactly what their arguments are… to better refute them.

    As Cap. Kirk said once… “I’ve never trusted Klingons, and I never Will”

  39. True environmentalism most definitely does not equate with climate alarmism.

    Any fake “environmentalists” who want to argue with me, be forewarned: I am a true hardcore environmentalist – (i.e. not of the flaky climate freak variety). You folks are threatening nature by generating massive instability – you’re creating a backlash against fake environmentalism that threatens legitimate (i.e. true) environmentalism – next thing you know the backlash will start going after our rivers & parks …and I’ll place the blame right where it belongs: on you.

    When they come after the bully, they will bring baseball bats. Why did you instigate this? Time to smarten up & start being sober. Offload the climate freaks – & get back to being pure. Deny ongoing incentive to leverage control away with more boom-&-bust bubble-cycles by being sensible. Think of the trees and realize that stability in human society is good for the longevity of parks – (just think what one nuke would do [& not only to humans]). Stability in human civilization is good for trees & parks.

    Paul Vaughan
    Ecologist

  40. R. Gates:

    see the underlying physics, which are actually quite simple. Either the earth is taking in more net energy from the sun each day than it is emitting back into space or it is not and if it is not, then either that imbalance is being caused by an increasingly dense blanket of CO2 and methane or it is not, and if is, then either that dense blanket of CO2 is human caused or it is not.

    There is a diminishing effectiveness as thickness is added to the blanket. (Logarithmic effect.) The blanket is diffuse and amounts to a coarse net. Thus there will be nothing to worry about unless there are positive feedbacks, which are a far-fetched concept supported mostly by models, and contravened, mostly, by observations.

    The earth is more likely to have a built-in thermostat (negative feedbacks) in the form of clouds. So the “simple underlying physics” is a misleading half-story. If that was All there was to it there would be no debate.

  41. Tim Wirth ended his political career here in Colorado when he challenged the press to catch him messing around with his other woman. They promptly did and put an end to Colorado politics for him, I guess it was on to bigger and better things at the U.N. Come to think of it, he fits in perfectly .

  42. It is obvious that the authors of the IPCC AR4 Summary for policymakers never read or completely ignored AR4 WG1. The Section ( 8.6) in Wg1 on forcings feedbacks and climate sensitivity concludes:

    ” Moreover it is not yet clear which tests, are critical for constraining future projections,consequently a set of model metrics that might be used to narrow the range of plausible climatefeedbacks and climate sensitivities has yet to be developed.”

    What could be clearer – the IPCC science section itself admits that we dont yet even know how to test climate models let alone make accurate future temperature projections. ( Not even predictions)
    This makes WG2 and Wg3 and the Summary merely idle speculations because at this time the anthropogenic CO2 – Climate sensitivty can’t be calculated.
    Yet the summary happily proceeds to produce temperature predictions out to 2100 and attributes a human influence “with a high degree of confidence”.
    The whole AGW scare is a complete farce put forward for political ends (power and taxes) and profits for the Carbon traders.
    Hardly anyone on either side seems actually to read WG1.

  43. The ‘tipping point’, so beloved of climate alarmists, will indeed occur: but it will be in politics not in the climate. Once politicians see that >50% of the voters reject the alarmism they will ‘tip’.

  44. rbateman (12:03:38) : For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction (a simplification of course). The backlash on this one is snowballing.

    Book of Revelation (Christian Bible) says “The dragon was getting angry because he knew his time would shortly be up” – oh yes, the dragon who had conned the whole world, with “miracles” – read “sleights-of-hand with data” in this context

    What were Churchill’s words? “this is not the end, not even the beginning of the end. But it is the end of the beginning” – right on I think for this situation.

  45. Name one religion that could vanish without hot spots here and there. Even if we removed all the priests-er-warmists scientists, I shudder to think of the wreckage lying around. And show would we keep bits and pieces from
    entering the mainstream. We need IPCC and the UN out of the climate projection business. If we set up a “Climate” organization from scratch, perhaps we could minimize the number of warmists without setting up anorganization that could
    readily evolve into an upposite tyrany. After World War Two, we tried something like that and it was partially auccessful, even if unqualified personnel sometimes
    held positions.

  46. The words of former Colorado senator Tim Wirth show the elitist thinking of those who use science as a propaganda tool to control the world:

    “. . . we’ve got to ride the global-warming issue. Even if the theory of global warming is wrong, we will be doing the right thing — in terms of economic policy and environmental policy.”

    Are citizens to be manipulated by politicians and scientists?
    Do the citizens have any right to know the truth?
    What happened to self-governance?
    Fascism? Communism?
    Stalin? Hitler?

    What a sad state of affairs,
    Oliver K. Manuel
    Emeritus Professor of
    Nuclear & Space Science
    Former NASA PI for Apollo

  47. Roger Knights (14:21:46) :

    The earth is more likely to have a built-in thermostat (negative feedbacks) in the form of clouds. So the “simple underlying physics” is a misleading half-story. If that was All there was to it there would be no debate.
    ————
    Reply:
    And, by extension, the earth probably wouldn’t be hospitable to life as we know it. What they fear would already have happened.

  48. “Roger Knights (14:21:46) :
    [...]
    There is a diminishing effectiveness as thickness is added to the blanket. (Logarithmic effect.) The blanket is diffuse .”

    Forget “blanket”. Using CO2 as a blanket doesn’t work. You don’t build a greenhouse by building it without a roof and replace the roof with a warming layer of CO2. Why not? Because convection will make your layer of CO2 go away. Convection, not radiation, is the cooling mechanism of the atmosphere. A greenhouse stops convection with glass panels. CO2 diffuses. It’s not even remotely a blanket. As the russian climatologist with the name i can’t remember says: Hot greenhouse gases rise in the atmosphere. He’s got a point there. I wonder if any GCM models updrifting CO2.


  49. Harry (13:31:12) :

    I.E. Chinese coal production had been increasing at an exponential rate.

    Harry, Harry, Harry, THAT’S not really possible (just hyperbole from a lawyer) …

    .
    .

  50. @geoff pohanka (12:41:12) :

    “…The warmers will not give up easily….Expect a long and hard fight, much like our victory over Germany and Japan in the War….”

    Exactly. ClimateGate and IPCCGate are equivalent to say, the battles of Midway and Guadalcanal. There are many more battles, islands to be taken, massive invasions, etc. to be fought in all this. Obama and the EPA remain resolute, but there is hope on our side.

    The “nuclear option” in this war is to figure out how to take the politics and the money awarded to those who side with the politics, out of the equation. How can scientists win grants to do science that isn’t responsive to some political objective?

  51. R. Gates (12:42:59) :

    I will read and cherish this forever, and pass it on to my grandchildren

    You have bred offspring? How very selfish of you, don’t you realise in your philosophy humanity is the problem and you have added to it?

    Either the earth is taking in more net energy from the sun each day than it is emitting back into space or it is not and if it is not, then either that imbalance is being caused by an increasingly dense blanket of CO2 and methane or it is not, and if is, then either that dense blanket of CO2 is human caused or it is not. These are simple questions, and have nothing to do with political leanings…

    The simple answer is that the planet appear to be radiating heat just fine.

    The “warming” measured ( is that 0.8C er 1.4F? ) over the last 100 years appears to be within the margin of error of the measuring method and that is without the egregious manipulation of the data.

    Another poster has pointed you at the fascinating work that has been done by Ferenc Miskolczi, ( it has been published in a peer review journal despite your kinds’ best efforts ).

    You have started pointing at natural factors like PDO, AO, GCR’s and the activity of the sun to try to bolster your argument despite the preposterous claim that these factors have no discernible long term effect on climate.
    [snip -] [easy now.R.T. - Mod]

  52. In late 2001 I attended a UN conference in which the keynote speaker read a cryptic statement before concluding. It was something to the effect that: “Exaggeration leads the coalition of disbelief.”

    We have discovered that computer models and cries of catastrophe are a poor substitute for the real world. You would think that hard-core environmentalists would be the first to reject artifice. Computer sims, robotic mantras, illusory crises. Oddly, they embraced it, like saccharin and RP Gaming software.

    The sad result is the distrust of things green and ecological. Exaggeration, the campaign that cried wolf, has damaged societal will to preserve wilderness, wildlife and forests. Militant marxism infiltrated the conservation movement caring little about environment and certainly not energy independence. Their political agenda replaced conservation with global control, NWO and “behavior modification.”

    When warned this approach would fail as it was an affront to human nature – the reaction was hostile. Intractable. The Algores and Soroses, MoveOns and Schmidts, knew what human beings needed, and it was a strong dose of totalitarian control. When these early efforts repeatedly failed the team refused to accept their mistakes, insisting that they would force the agenda down our throats if necessary. Admitting error to a common man was beneath grandiose conjurers of the arcane.

    And so in the end it is their pride that undoes climate scientists. Had they re-configured the campaign and tempered their approach – they may have won the hearts and minds of men. They did no such thing and so are now… discredited. Pride. Not just human frailty; the Achilles heel of gods.

    That’s robust.

  53. Every ecological problem was instantly transformed into a potential world-ending crisis, from the population bomb to the imminent resource depletion of the “limits to growth” fad of the 1970s to acid rain to ozone depletion, always with an overlay of moral condemnation of anyone who dissented from environmental correctness.

    Ain’t dat da truth.

    I still well remember how alarmist they were in the run up to the Clean Air and Water Act of 1970. Now, that act has been a really good thing. Our air sucked back then, and our rivers and lakes were not being taken care of very well.

    However, the one total freaking exaggeration that still has me fuming over those lousy stinking lying SOB tree-huggers.

    I lived in Cleveland, and the mantra was that if we didn’t put one more drop of pollutants into Lake Erie for TEN THOUSAND YEARS, only then would the lake clear itself up from all the pollutants that were already in it.

    Well, the exaggerations worked. The bill was passed into law.

    TEN SINGLE YEARS LATER, with the pollution entering the lake still at 25% of what had been going into it before, lo and behold! The lake had cleaned itself up 90%! It was a MIRACLE!

    That was one alarmist lie that I will never forgive those bastards for. Zero pollutants for 10,000 years vs 75% reduction for 10 years. They can kiss my arse now. I don’t believe a word they say unless it is vetted to high heaven.

    And the thing is, I am basically on their side. But liars are liars, and I don’t trust them.

  54. DirkH (15:26:23) :

    Forget “blanket”. Using CO2 as a blanket doesn’t work. You don’t build a greenhouse by building it without a roof and replace the roof with a warming layer of CO2. Why not? Because convection will make your layer of CO2 go away. Convection, not radiation, is the cooling mechanism of the atmosphere. A greenhouse stops convection with glass panels. CO2 diffuses. It’s not even remotely a blanket. As the russian climatologist with the name i can’t remember says: Hot greenhouse gases rise in the atmosphere. He’s got a point there. I wonder if any GCM models updrifting CO2.

    I have A scientific paper that argues this, but it is not a Russian. It is two German scientists, Gerhard Gerlich and Ralf D. Tscheuschner (2007), entitled Falsifi cation Of The Atmospheric CO2 Greenhouse Effects Within The Frame Of Physics.

    Perhaps a Russian also wrote this up.

    While I agree with the points made in the paper, I honestly am not sure they are correct in the overall premise. I THINK so, but it is something I’d have to see in order to be convinced.

  55. I think, and hope, that the CAGW scare is dead scientifically and politically. Now my greatest fear is what this will do to the layperson’s belief in science and legitimate environmental concerns. Environmentalism as practiced for most of the last 30 years has been mostly religious zealotry but may God help us all if we completely ignore what we are, or could be, doing to the earth or each other via careless use.

    I fear the backlash against science and real environmentalism.

  56. geoff pohanka (12:41:12) : “The warmers will not give up easily. They are too heavily invested in their cause.”

    Agreed. This is far from over.

    “These people, or at least some of them, have an end game in mind, the complete and radical ‘change’ of society and our political system as we know it. Global warming is a means to this end for some.”

    And if “global warming/climate change/climate chaos” loses its cachet, then it will be ocean acidification, depletion of resources, overpopulation, or some other boogeyman that “forces” an elite group of self-styled saviors to rescue us from ourselves. CAGW is only the latest ailment to be “cured” by the snake oil salesmen; there will be others. The same skepticism we’ve developed toward CAGW should be applied in every aspect of our lives.

  57. But it won’t stop until we, the taxpayers, the people, stop giving the political classes, our money.

    Government is almost stealing tax money under false pretenses now. Government is wasting so much money it is criminal…. If that money was left in the pockets of the motivated people it originally came from… it would do ten times the work and benefit.

    It’s amazing that in this age of enlightenment, we still yearn for a political class to rule over us and to bow to….

    A government is not society…. its people are. Time we took responsibility.

  58. crosspatch (12:21:12) :

    Yes, I caught the 80cents of every green stimulus dollar going overseas.
    Maybe we should call it Tap and Charade, instead of Cap and Trade.
    We now have a working example of where the money from the C02 Energy legislation will end up. The goal of the Bill is to attach our economy for the purpose of growing our competitors economies.

  59. Deforestation is a problem worldwide. Brazil has declared itself in a state of national emergency over its situation with deforestation. Over half of the worlds rainforests have been estimated to be cleared and from satellite observations the amount of the Amazon which has been cleared was shown to be about double what scientists had expected. There is a real emergency when it comes to the amount of forest clearance has occurred and it does not in any way do us good to allow it to continue. It is a requirement that we have solutions to real problems such as these where global warming can take a back seat to the immediate and obvious problems associated with such easily measurable and solvable situations. Global warming doesn’t cause the destruction of the forests… cattle ranching does, and a minor contributor is logging.

  60. Its the end. Every reasonable person who has questioned this global warming thing, has been viciously attacked and hysterically acused of hating the planet,. at some point or other.It hurts.We remember being assured that the science was overwhelming,but we must be too stupid to understand it.Well now we know,the science made no sense,because there is no science supporting the central claims.The claims from authority are doomed,the lying is now exposed and the backlash is starting.My govt is complicit or stupid (probably both) in a failure to protect the national interest. Propoganda attacks on citizens. Horrific waste of tax dollars.And thats just the global warming scam. I am so sick of climate change, that term is as useful as water wet or rock=hard.Its meaningless,climate is a process,that always changes. My thanks to the regulars of this site,I have learnt alot over the last years and have been encouraged by the sanity and willingness to list the data by you who post here.The civility and striving for truth has made WUWT stand out from the activist and “official” websites. For those like me who normally just browse thro,the tip jar is above, its thro paypal .Give . Without these guys we would be about to give a whole lot more. JRR Canada

  61. The history political of environmentalism in the ultra conservative Nazi Party, whose idealists like Himmler, Hesse and Darre which wanted to destroy modern industrial civilisation.

    The philosophy is still alive today amongst the global elites like the British royal family and aristocracy (who supported Hitler pre WWII).

    It is also popular amongst useful idiots like James Hansen

    James Hansen recently endorsed an extreme eco fascist book by Keith Farnish calling for the end of industrial civilisation.

    Farnish writes

    The only way to prevent global ecological collapse and thus ensure the survival of humanity is to rid the world of Industrial Civilization

    Hansen wrote

    Keith Farnish has it right: time has practically run out, and the ‘system’ is the problem. Governments are under the thumb of fossil fuel special interests – they will not look after our and the planet’s well-being until we force them to do so, and that is going to require enormous effort. –Professor James Hansen, GISS, NASA

    I think we can all imagine what ‘system’ Hansen would like to see, and it wouldn’t be democracy.

    Nazis and environment links here

    http://homepage.ntlworld.com/sealed/gw/greennazis.htm

  62. Rm gates .
    Hansen in the foi(us emails) said something along the lines of “there is no detectable agw signal in the us and there may not be for 20-40 years. Cet in the uk, no agw signal. Susan soloman and her water vapour accounting for 30% of the warming,Miskolczi, a further climateologist stated in jan that “some unknown variation is masking the agw signal(despite all variations being included in the models,our variable star . Yet you persist in believing that 4 out of every 10000 molecules can influence the other 9996, and man is responsible for less than 10% of that. Those co2 molecules that we emit must be super molecules taking on allcomers and kicking their asses, a bit like Neo and all the agent smiths. Agw theory is toast, had its 30 years in the light time to go back under the rock.

  63. Marvin: Global warming doesn’t cause the destruction of the forests… cattle ranching does, and a minor contributor is logging.

    Add Global Warming Scare to that list – it has done real damage to rain forests (through bio fuels, e.g. palm oil in Indonesia).

  64. R. Gates (12:42:59) :

    I like this part of this post the most:

    “The global-warming thrill ride looks to be coming to an end…”

    I will read and cherish this forever, and pass it on to my grandchildren, reminding them that this is what “conservatives” of the early 21st century thought of global warming.

    It’s interesting that you choose that particular statement as the object of your ire. FYI, it isn’t just conservatives who are able to see the falsity of AGW doctrine, but truth-seekers of all types. The fact that the whole monstrosity is now falling apart is evident to all but the most blinkered of Believers. In the future, your grandkids will more than likely be reading of how mankind, for a time went into a sort of hysterical insanity wherein he actually thought his burning of fossil fuels was bringing imminent doom to mankind and to this planet. They will know that instead of “saving the planet”, the doomsayers were only hurting mankind, and in many cases of actually causing environmental damage. They will know that C02 was in no way harmful, but actually benefiting both man and the environment. In fact, instead of being hated, feared, and called a “pollutant”, it will be looked upon as no more “harmful” than oxygen. They will laugh and be amazed at those who thought otherwise. This time period will be likened with the Salem Witch Trials, the difference being the AGW mania was pretty much a world-wide phenomenon, with much greater, and more damaging effects.

  65. DirkH (15:26:23) :

    “Roger Knights (14:21:46) :
    [...]
    There is a diminishing effectiveness as thickness is added to the blanket. (Logarithmic effect.) The blanket is diffuse .”

    Forget “blanket”. Using CO2 as a blanket doesn’t work. You don’t build a greenhouse by building it without a roof and replace the roof with a warming layer of CO2. Why not? Because convection will make your layer of CO2 go away. Convection, not radiation, is the cooling mechanism of the atmosphere. A greenhouse stops convection with glass panels. CO2 diffuses. It’s not even remotely a blanket.

    That’s why I wrote, “The blanket is diffuse and amounts to a coarse net.

    Lucy Skywalker (14:39:44) :

    btw the article says The Guardian is turning on the climate campaigners with deserved vengeance but I don’t see an inch of that here

    But check out the scorcher here: “Climategate e-mails reveal strenuous efforts by climate scientists to censor their critics”: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/feb/09/peer-review-block-scientific-papers

  66. The politics of global warming are dead. The science of global warming, which depended critically on the politics, is coming undone. However, one would never know this – any of it – from reading the New York Times.

    See “Global warming and the New York Times”:

  67. Back in the 70’s a certain cult was calling for the end of the world on say Aug. 15 at 2:00 pm,1976.(my memory is slightly fuzzy on that date, btw) I was
    working as a printer’s helper. just about finished with University studies.The
    assistant manager was a high poobah in this cult. One thing, he was admant
    about the world ending,so admant,he quit,his wife,daughter and his followers
    all sold their homes, possesions, and bought white clothing to await the arrival
    of one of the following:The Mothership,the Unkown Prophet,(could explain why
    they had this paper bag fetish),the arrival of the darkness of doom, or whatever.
    Well, 2:00 arrived then 3:00, then they stayed up all night.On a hilltop in NE
    Oregon,the stars came out the Coyoties howled, No Mother ship,no Prophet,
    and the sun came up as it has over the high lonesome for untold aeons.
    Poobah found a use for that paper bag….

  68. As everyone here is so well aware, there are very few things in life that are either purely “black or white” (pick your own opposites). Everyone of us on this planet are various shades of the two and many have some very big dark freckles and gleeming light spots. To glumb all AGW or Anti-AGW folks into a homogenious group is nie on impossible.

    Extreme caution should be exercised when dealing with any AGW type these days – for their sake as well as your own. There are many who will turn on their betrayers and stand beside you against all comers in the future, if you give them the chance. If you ridicule them they will turn into a life long enemy. Leave the door open. We didn’t win. The radicals just went too far and shot themselves in the head. Their followers are now stunned and assessing all options.

  69. The sources for these claims turned out to be environmental advocacy groups — not rigorous, peer-reviewed science.

    So, seems to me that us deniers should use the word rigorous and let the alarmists keep their robusts. As in, “I’ll call your three robust articles and raise you two rigorous”.

  70. Paul Vaughan (14:19:33) :

    True environmentalism most definitely does not equate with climate alarmism.

    Any fake “environmentalists” who want to argue with me, be forewarned: I am a true hardcore environmentalist – (i.e. not of the flaky climate freak variety). You folks are threatening nature by generating massive instability – you’re creating a backlash against fake environmentalism that threatens legitimate (i.e. true) environmentalism – next thing you know the backlash will start going after our rivers & parks …and I’ll place the blame right where it belongs: on you.

    When they come after the bully, they will bring baseball bats. Why did you instigate this? Time to smarten up & start being sober. Offload the climate freaks – & get back to being pure. Deny ongoing incentive to leverage control away with more boom-&-bust bubble-cycles by being sensible. Think of the trees and realize that stability in human society is good for the longevity of parks – (just think what one nuke would do [& not only to humans]). Stability in human civilization is good for trees & parks.

    Paul Vaughan
    Ecologist

    Don’t blame us. If you are fundamentalist evangelical hardcore caped-crusading environmentalist, then go and dig the filth out of your own back yard. As for the planet, it’s as tough as old boots, and will outlast us all.

    Just think of the car drivers who are always having accidents, and it’s always the other guy’s fault.

    Allan Morgan
    One-time fundamentalist evangelical religious type, happily saved now. But the cape doesn’t suit me.

  71. Douglas DC (08:05:09) :

    Back in the 70’s a certain cult was calling for the end of the world on say Aug. 15 at 2:00 pm,1976.(my memory is slightly fuzzy on that date, btw) I was
    working as a printer’s helper. just about finished with University studies.The
    assistant manager was a high poobah in this cult. One thing, he was admant
    about the world ending,so admant,he quit,his wife,daughter and his followers
    all sold their homes, possesions, and bought white clothing to await the arrival
    of one of the following:The Mothership,the Unkown Prophet,(could explain why
    they had this paper bag fetish),the arrival of the darkness of doom, or whatever.
    Well, 2:00 arrived then 3:00, then they stayed up all night.On a hilltop in NE
    Oregon,the stars came out the Coyoties howled, No Mother ship,no Prophet,
    and the sun came up as it has over the high lonesome for untold aeons.
    Poobah found a use for that paper bag….

    See also: When Prophecy Fails by Leon Festinger

  72. Allan M (08:03:09) “[...] If you are fundamentalist evangelical hardcore caped-crusading environmentalist [...] As for the planet, it’s as tough as old boots, and will outlast us all.”

    You’ve seriously misinterpreted.

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