Cold event setups in atmospheric circulation patterns are aligning. Two days ago I brought to your attention that there was a strong downspike in the Arctic Oscillation Index and that the North Atlantic Oscillation Index was also negative. See The Arctic Oscillation Index goes strongly negative
Yesterday, Senior AccuWeather meteorologist Joe Bastardi let loose with this stunning prediction on the AccuWeather premium web site via Brett Anderson’s Global warming blog:
What is facing the major population centers of the northern hemisphere is unlike anything that we have seen since the global warming debate got to the absurd level it is now, which essentially has been there is no doubt about all this. For cold of a variety not seen in over 25 years in a large scale is about to engulf the major energy consuming areas of the northern Hemisphere. The first 15 days of the opening of the New Year will be the coldest, population weighted, north of 30 north world wide in over 25 years in my opinion.
The Climate Prediction Center discussion for their forecast also concurs with both of the above:
THE AO INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN VERY STRONGLY NEGATIVE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN VALUE BUT REMAIN STRONGLY NEGATIVE THROUGH DAY 14. TODAYS BLEND CHART INDICATES BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS, AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH A STRONGLY NEGATIVE AO.
Here are two of the CPC forecast maps for the days covered by Bastardi’s forecast. It is fairly typical to see an above average temperature in the west when we get a cold deep jet stream in the east:
I was going to include some Met Office forecasts here but after trying to find something useful at their web site and failing to find anything, I gave up looking.
If you live in these areas: bundle up, stock up. Get ready.
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The first 15 days of the opening of the New Year will be the coldest, population weighted, north of 30 north world wide in over 25 years in my opinion.
Which will be trumpeted by the Usual Suspects as further proof of AGW…
Got about an inch of “warming” on the ground outside my front door right now. I live about two blocks from the Idaho/Oregon border in Weiser, ID.
“Above average” temps in the west? Not here! This area usually gets snow around two or three times each winter, though once in a while it gets a lot of snow. Already above average/normal for the year now.
We have seen snow here in Houston two years in a row. That has not happened before in recorded history. I think we will see snow one more time before winter ends. Houston has not seen a temperature of 19F or lower since Dec. 1990 (at the reporting stations at least). I bet we will see that this winter. I remember back in the 80’s and early 90’s it was cold all the time. I’ve had several friends, co-worker and family members comment to me that they can’t remember it being this cold, this long since the 80’s.
I think this has more to do with the volcanoes that went off last year than anything else. They were high latitude volcanoes, so maybe the study about them has some merit. The El Nino is playing some part, but Joe Bastradi has been saying, the El Nino is not driving the pattern, rather it is being driven by the pattern.
Anthony the reason you probably didn’t find anything from the UK Met Ofiice is because they are still trying to get the egg off their face from the big snow storm that came through the UK. The Telegraph has an article with a comment from the Met Office
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100020868/the-uk-meterological-office-slightly-less-reliable-than-tea-leaves-or-cock-entrails/
Ok ok, WUWT readers/authors. You’ve proved your point. Global warming has stopped, and it’s very cold outside. We get it. You win. Now quit whatever it is you are doing to make it so #%^$ cold. Turn off your ‘Gore effect’. I can’t stand any more freezing weather, and it’s only December!
Anthoney I come here often but don’t post as I’m not an expert but really enjoy this place – I’m in Tampa and freezing my ass off already but those maps sure look like I better get some more firewood – just say’in
I think I’m right can anybody help out
Piers Corbyn has also forecast extreme cold, something along these same lines.
Not to worry. Field engineers are busy fitting weather monitoring stations with thermometer calibration jackets connected back to the IPCC modelling centres. Temperatures will continue to be as predicted.
Well, it took me a little while to find it (now, they couldn’t be trying to hide it, SURELY?) but here is the MET Office’s forecast dated 27 November 2009. (That’s right, just over a month ago!)
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/seasonal/2009/winter/?zoneid=79042
It is also confirmed by:-
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1231668/Forecasters-predict-mild-winter-Britain-Prince-Charles-visits-flood-hit-Cockermouth.html
Not to mention:-
http://www.energyhelpline.com/news/article.aspx?aaid=18801304&y=2008&m=9&w=4&pid=1
(Gosh! Cheap energy bills! Brilliant!)
You will see that after their previous fiasco last year:-
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2008/pr20080925.html
The MET Office’s prediction THIS time round gives 50% chance of a mild winter, 30% chance of a near average winter and 20% chance of a colder winter. Is that what’s called spread betting? I’ve got a small coin! I can do that! “Give us a job!”
And what have Joe Bastardi and Piers Corbyn been predicting? Gosh, and they haven’t got a £30 Million Super computer which is so clever that it says just what the climate will be doing in 90 years time!
Hey, I pay my taxes!
Can I have my share of £30 Million back, towards my “cheaper” energy bills?
For europe its here
http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp
See that nice warm spot in the upper left corner? I’m happily sitting in it. 🙂
Cheers!
Nevermind I figured out B means go buy firewood at any cost before its gone
Congrats on 30 mill – I also found Russ at NC Media Watch from here and have had fun there – Happy New Year Anthony
Warm is good, benign even, cold very bad, and often malign.
In Uk in the winter of 62/3, my father, who had a construction business, with a large workforce, kept his people on standard pay for thirteen solid weeks of the freeze. It did not bankrupt him, but his business never recovered it’s former liquidity, and over the years there were many layoffs, and disapointments.
Cold periods can have all sorts of unusual consequences, and may have effects for many years.
Urged by the Met Office warm prediction for this winter, Highway Authorities have not stocked up with salt perhaps as much as they should have done, and whilst major highways have been cleared, sidewalks have not, nor local roads, and many folk have had falls, some minor, but for the elderly, very serious. Consequences which are not measured by the AGW crowd.
Make no mistake about it, Joe B is right, it’s going to continue to be cold.
In mid September, I predicted this when I spotted the Sea Ice extent for this year had made its turn from minimum, two weeks earlier than in 2007. If someone like me can draw a reasonable conclusion from this, then why does the Met Office continue with its ridiculous predictions? Frankly I wouldn’t believe their prediction for sunrise…………
For those in the UK that cannot rely on accurate and unbiased Met Office forecasts, an excellent resource is the Stormsurf pages which give jetstream predictions out to seven days.
Western Europe
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=natla_250
Worldwide
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=glob_250
The current model is showing an arctic blast descending on western europe for the forecast period.
So much for the CRU predictions of ‘tropical’ winters in the UK. Hopefully the policy makers are looking out of their windows and realising that nature and reality trumps the eco-fascist alarmist frenzy. AGW is over.
It’s a national shame and a scandal that on average, 20,000 people die of the cold each winter, most of them old state pensioners who can’t afford to heat their homes properly.
This winter, pensioners plight will be worsened by the huge increases in the cost of electricity and gas over the last 18 months. If they decide to escape their freezing homes and go to sit in the local pub or library, they risk breaking a hip on the icy pavements which have remained ungritted since the big freeze on Dec 18th.
What is happening to my country? Why do we tolerate the fools we allow to lead us?
Time for change.
We (in the Scottish highlands) have already had a week of very cold weather, when it has been -15C most nights, and rarely above -8C during the day. The Met Office are saying it will rise to 0C today and 4C tomorrow, but they usually over estimate our temperature by at least 4 or 5C in the winter, so I will beleive it when I see it. I suspect that the 40cm of snow we have will be here for long while yet. As I said to a friend last week, this winter so far, and last winter are much more reminiscent of the winters we had in the early 80s. He quickly made the link with the change in the NAO – he is a walking encyclopedia of the environmental sciences so ahead of the game as usual.
Ok, we’ll note this on our calendars and see how it all pans out.
but … even the comments in Nature magazine are saying…
NOBODY BELIEVES YOU ANY MORE!
Holy Climate Turbulence, Batman! Better buy some offsetting carbon credits.
Sure, this is only a weather event. At least that’s what you’ll hear from the warmists, other than their utter silence.
But remember, as Anthony mentioned a day or two ago, these things were sopposed to be rare and be out of the picture by now – that according to the world renowned and authoritive MetOffice.
This morning here in northern Germany we woke up to another snow cover. And the 15-day computer forecast by MeteoGroup says more is on the way, and that we’ll be entering the deep-freezer by this weekend. Joe Bastardi was right.
Forget the Met! Go to Joe!
A lot has been made of Greenland ice melting.
South Greenland, if Met office numbers are to be believed, is still in the range (winter) or below (summer) temperatures reached in 1930/40’s.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/Sth_Greenland.gif
You Britons have to rise up and speak out against this huge waste of money, national symbol of incompetence and arrogance called the MetOfiice. They’ve become the laughing stock of the western weather world. (GISS is right behind them).
I feel a lot better now.
The Met Office is a joke. It must be born in mind that it is a public body, staffed by rent-seekers who do the least work possible. It regularly issues “forecasts” after the onset of the period to which they pertain. Its accuracy is risible, regularly failing to predict events beyond twelve hours in advance, and being wrong for whole days at a time, although it has unsurprisingly biased its performance targets to its own lowest expectations. It has been appropriated by the alarmist agenda and continually seeks – and receives, unfortunately – funding for its “climate” work, at the expense of its core functions, which are produced to the bare minimum it can get away with.
http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-demand.asp?video=19668940001&title=Bitter%20Cold%20Blast%20All%20the%20Way%20to%20Florida%20for%20the%20New%20Year!
buy some orange juice futures ?
It is set to turn brutal in the UK as well. “Turn”?
Well we had two weeks of sub zero temperatures around Christmas, it has now gone “mild” – ie, above zero. However from New Year’s Day I do not expect to see a return to positive temperatures for a long time thanks to a plunge of Arctic air invading across northern Europe.
We now know the Met Office’s forecast for a mild winter is shown to be an incompetent sham, and their credibility is in complete tatters. Better that they man up and admit that factoring AGW into their seasonal forecasts has meant they have all been busted recently.
From BBQ Summers to dreamed up Mild Winters, they do not come close to the skill of the likes if Piers Corbyn or Joe Bastardi.