JPL’s Patzert: “It’s actually eroding the credibility of long-range forecasters and climatologists”

The 2009 “super El Nino” predicted by some may be a “fizzle” according reports attributed to NASA JPL’s Climatologist Bill Patzert. I wonder who he might be referring to when he says “eroding the credibility”? Hansen’s prediction perhaps?

GONE? The reddish-orange satellite markings visible at the equator during a class El Nino seem to have disappeared, says JPL. The red spots shown here, above the equator, depict a current.

GONE? The reddish-orange satellite markings visible at the equator during a class El Nino seem to have disappeared, says JPL. The red spots shown here, above the equator, depict a current. Image courtesy of NASA.

Excerpts from three different articles below:

This year’s El Nino expected to be mild

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-09/21/content_12086294.htm

LOS ANGELES, Sept. 20 (Xinhua) — This year’s El Nino would be mild, resembling the pattern of 2006 and 2007, weather experts said in remarks published on Sunday.

The oscillation of hot water in the eastern Pacific Ocean is going to be a let-down, in terms of precipitation over a parched California, Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) researcher Bill Patzert told the San Diego Union-Tribune.

“This El Nino is definitely puny,” Patzert said , adding that this year’s pattern resembles the mild El Nino of 2006-2007, which left California’s snowpack and reservoirs short of what water experts had coveted: an end to five years of drought.

Although the jet stream pattern still shows that California might get a wet winter, the likelihood of floods and massive rains is diminishing, the paper quoted climatologists as saying.

“We’re planning for a dry 2010,” said Elissa Lynn, senior meteorologist for the state Department of Water resources, in an interview with the paper.

El Nino is the name given to a change in Pacific currents that moves the jet stream and storm track from their normal vectors. Strong El Ninos can see Southern California’s coastal plains get triple the normal 10-12 inches of annual rainfall.

This year’s El Nino appeared to be off to a strong start, but has fizzled.

Patzert said it’s time to find a new name for mild El El Niño, so that the public is not confused.

“You have to reserve the name ‘El Niño’ for the real big events that only happen every 12 to 14 years,” he said.

“It’s actually eroding the credibility of long-range forecasters and climatologists.”

=====

From the SD Union Tribune article:

Forecasters have struggled to assess this year’s El Niño, he said. Initially, one report suggested it would become the second-strongest episode on record. Now, some say El Niño has peaked and is already fading.

The atmosphere is not behaving as weather models predicted in the early summer, said Mike McPhaden, a senior scientist at the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory in Seattle. El Niño has “developed in fits and starts,” he said.

Patzert said weak and moderate El Niños shouldn’t even be labeled El Niños.

“You have to reserve the name ‘El Niño’ for the real big events that only happen every 12 to 14 years,” he said. “It’s actually eroding the credibility of long-range forecasters and climatologists.”

=====

From The Orange County register “Science Dude” Blog:

Bill Patzert, a climatologist at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory who studies El Niño and advises CPC, says in an email, “There is considerable uncertainty among scientists as to whether this event will have the staying power to deliver the dramatic impacts that were seen during the last intense El Niño episode, which happened in 1997-1998.”

Recent satellite images show that the distinct signature of El Niño that appears directly along the equator has faded, and that the system may have slipped into neutral status.

“At this time, it is a long shot for this El Nino to expand and intensify into the fall and elevate the present weak to moderate El Niño episode to a stronger event,” Patzert says. “For comparison, the August 21, 1997, TOPEX/Poseidon image of the macho 1997-1998 El Niño is included here. In size and intensity it dwarfs the present conditions.”

Note the sea surface heat signature at the equator.Note the sea surface heat signature at the equator.
h/t to WUWT reader Suzanne Smart

95 thoughts on “JPL’s Patzert: “It’s actually eroding the credibility of long-range forecasters and climatologists”

  1. Where are the paleoclimatologists on this one? It’s no secret, historically, California has always been a semi arid state. Droughts as long as several decades to a century have been recorded (which probably means the El Nino and La Nina events have always been around). Without the dams which were built during the early 20th century, we’d be having huge problems delivering water to our current population.

  2. I knew it! I saw this back when it appeared to fade in July.I was online back in ’97/’98
    and communicated with John Daly occasionally on that nasty bugger’s impact on the
    South Coast of Oregon.This is not a big one. El Nino is dead! Long Live the Ice Queen-La
    Nina! (Where its always winter but no Christmas…)
    Getting firewood this week…
    Finishing the Greenhouse too…

  3. Ok…do I buy a new snowblower, or not?
    Do I buy 2 tons of pellets?…or 3?
    Do I buy a ton of salt/sand?…or just fill 5gal buckets at the town garage?
    Do I need a new winter coat, or can I make do with last decade’s?
    Do I book my vacation flights 3 days early, or not?

    They’re driving me nuts.

    Farmer’s Almanac calls for increased cold and snowfall in the Northeast…I think that’s the one I’m going with.

    JimB

    JimB

  4. If this potential El Nino continues to fail to get going soon, looks like we’re in for a cold NH winter. I wonder if our currently quiet sun could be part of the cause?

  5. No El Nino, increasing polar ice? Time to prepare some ocean acidification horror scenarios in time for Copenhagen…

  6. “The atmosphere is not behaving as weather models predicted in the early summer, said Mike McPhaden….”

    Imagine that.

  7. Oh, I’ve forgotten that earlier this year we’ve had several volcanoes erupting in the Pacific – Siberia and Alaska. Could they have been responsible for the weakening of El Nino? I believe we’re definitely are due for a colder winter because of those volcano eruptions.

  8. One report suggested it would become the second-strongest episode on record

    Even an ordinary farmer leaning over fence knows, that strong El Nino does not happen during the cold PDO mode. It is literally decomposing during last few weeks, despite NOAA report (those chaps who know, manage and predict everything) saying it will strengthen in fall 2009:

    http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

    The atmosphere is not behaving as weather models predicted

    Ouch, who would say that :-o

    Now guess what usually comes after wannabe El Nino..

  9. Speaking of the sun that ‘big’ sunspot is supposed to be visible from Earth today, only problem is it’s not as big as people were hyping it to be according to this website, and also suggesting this won’t break the solar minimum

    http://spaceweather.com/


  10. “We’re planning for a dry 2010,” said Elissa Lynn, senior meteorologist for the state Department of Water resources, in an interview with the paper.”

    Shouldn’t all in such a position always do exactly that?
    As a meteorologist she should very well know why?

  11. Also, the SOI is also not showing any sign of a true El Nino event (it’s above 0 again) despite a warmer anomaly beneath the surface towards South America, Unisys is also showing anomalies cooler than what NOAA is showing, we’re seeing consistantly below average high temps. here most days, but lows are near average.

    Arctic temps. according to DMI also continue to run colder than last year after the summer peak, Intellicast is also forecasting a serious drop in temps in Greenland on their global forecast maps.

  12. JimB (09:40:29) :

    Ok…do I buy a new snowblower, or not?
    Do I buy 2 tons of pellets?…or 3?
    Do I buy a ton of salt/sand?…or just fill 5gal buckets at the town garage?
    Do I need a new winter coat, or can I make do with last decade’s?
    Do I book my vacation flights 3 days early, or not?

    They’re driving me nuts.

    Farmer’s Almanac calls for increased cold and snowfall in the Northeast…I think that’s the one I’m going with.

    JimB

    These are precisely the kinds of questions I wish the climate modelers could answer with some reasonable accuracy – unfortunately, they can’t…

  13. To avoid confusion with the real thing, perhaps a “weak” El Nino should be renamed “El Ninny” (in honor of those who think we can predict climate a hundred years in advance).

  14. 21 August 1997 image : “Note the sea surface heat signature at the equator.”

    Who wouldn’t note that super-El Nino!? What a beauty.

    “Patzert said weak and moderate El Niños shouldn’t even be labeled El Niños.”

    Perhaps ‘El Niño tendencies/conditions’ or ‘Pseudo-Niños’?

    This reminds me of the much anticipated (wanna-be) spot which has shown itself to be useless for now. ( May 05-10 2009 all over again),, [ PS: Leif we are still waiting for solar flux to shoot up to 80 today like you promised ;).]

  15. “Patzert said it’s time to find a new name for mild El El Niño, so that the public is not confused.”

    El Niñoito

  16. Oh dear! The Copenhageners just can’t seem to catch a break. One could almost feel sorry for them. Almost. We can look forward to Olympic-level feats of spin, backpedaling, wailing, and gnashing of teeth. Bring popcorn.

  17. Had a warmist co-worker slap the earlier NOAA prediction on my desk-“See!
    Hansen is right! _It’s a Super EL Nino!”_upon hearing that I had an image of AlGore and Hansen in Superman oufits.I said-“it’s weak and will be neutral or gone by winter.”
    “You don’t trust _Scientists_?” “I trust what I see and know,and Science this isn’t…”
    he looked at me like “Unbeliever!” and left me alone-which is what I wanted…

  18. Adam from Kansas (10:06:43) :
    “Speaking of the sun that ‘big’ sunspot is supposed to be visible from Earth today, only problem is it’s not as big as people were hyping it to be..”

    To refresh your memory go check out the Farside images from 05-07 May 2009 and the GONG Earthside images from 10-13 May 2009… first what appeared to be two large SC 24 regions exploding violently, visible on the backside. Oh and how the celebrations began among solar circles, finally minimum was over! But alas when the two regions came round, both were corpses! (One produced a Tiny Tim later on). This is nothing new. Who knows.. maybe 1026 will be ripper!

  19. Adam from Kansas (10:06:43) :

    It’s not a big deal, Adam, I can step outside my office, project it’s faded grey form, and tell you firsthand that it’s not. There’s 4x as much white light faculae than there is sunspot.

  20. I have to laugh my ass off at the global warming conspiracy deniers when I see what the Sun is denying them every day. No sunspots for them for a very long time till they learn a lesson they will never forget, HAHA. The lesson includes, you can’t trick the world into accepting global energy rations and Rothschild style control of the energy markets through junk climate science.

    Watch this 1990 documentary, it proves the on-going conspiracy to control the entire world through global taxation of the energy markets.

    The Greenhouse Conspiracy

  21. “The atmosphere is not behaving as weather models predicted in the early summer, said Mike McPhaden….”

    …. depends on who you talk to – it is behaving exactly as Joe Bastardi at Accuwx said it would – and he made that prediction many months ago when it was just developing.

    So, you have a private sector forecaster who’s only motivation is to get the forecast right – as his clients are depending on it (they will find a better forecaster if he messes up) and you have many grant-supported forecasters who only get their money if they scare people….. is it any wonder why one gets it right & the other gets it wrong. Cynical… maybe…. but I dont think it is coincidence …

    OT- 1st snow of the season this morning here in the foothills outside Denver – 1 inch of mash potatoes and 36 deg at 6100 ft.

  22. Juraj V. (10:04:50) :
    saying it will strengthen in fall 2009…If there is such a thing to be called fall. The same happens in the SH with such a thing called “springtime”.

  23. I couple of weeks ago I mentioned that I didn’t see any El Nino developing. Lately it appears the moderate one we’ve had is now fading.

  24. Jeff L (11:02:28) :

    OT- 1st snow of the season this morning here in the foothills outside Denver – 1 inch of mash potatoes and 36 deg at 6100 ft.

    Good thing Jeff, since some people in your area actually believe global warming will bring the “death of skiing”…

    http://www.examiner.com/x-5720-Denver-Skiing-Examiner~y2009m5d13-Global-warming-The-death-of-skiing

    Now that I think of it, ski resorts will probably use global warming as a reason to raise lift ticket prices!

  25. We can call the little El Niño events El Pequeño Niño. I don’t know much Spanish, but I do know pequeño means little. And that rhymes, which is what I like. (I always forget which types of adjectives go before or after the noun in Spanish. Except color, I know color goes after the noun.)

    (P.S.Thanks for letting me copy the ñ letter. It isn’t on my keyboard.)

  26. In the record of El Ninos going back to 1871, there is about 20 big El Ninos (over 1.5C anomaly) and there is only 2 which had a stall period like this one.

    The build-up period can still take over a year or, more commonly, 5 or 6 months but the stalling El Ninos seem to only get to about 1.0C.

    So, odds-wise, this will not get stronger but there is still time and possibilities available. None of the usual drivers are pushing this one higher right now however.

  27. Three Q’s:

    Q #1 What is a climatologist doing at the “Jet Propulsion Laboratory”?

    Q #2 Can we not consilidate the climatological duties at GISS with those at JPL?

    Q #3 Am I paying for this redundancy?
    .
    .

  28. JimB (09:40:29) :

    Farmer’s Almanac calls for increased cold and snowfall in the Northeast…I think that’s the one I’m going with.

    So is the Old Farmer’s Almanac. Last year Joe D’Aleo help set them on their decades of cooling tack, so I’ll go with them.

    http://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange says for the northeast

    Winter will be colder than normal, on average, primarily due to persistent cold temperatures in January, with only brief thaws. Other cold periods will occur in mid-December and mid-February. Precipitation and snowfall will be below normal. Watch for a snowstorm around Thanksgiving, with other snowy periods in mid- and late December and mid- and late January.

    They’re calling for a very cold March in several regions, that will be interesting if it verifies.

  29. El Nono?

    A SUPER el NINO was forcast only because is seemed most likely due to the fact that current temperature is below the IPCC predicted values. A SUPER el NINO would boost the temperature back up to predicted values. The warmist needed this SUPER el NINO to proove their theory. Too bad all they get is an el NONO.

  30. This is so typical of you people, maintaining your ignorant Denialism, when everyone knows the situation is getting worse much faster than predicted.
    Global temperatures are rising faster than predicted.
    CO2 in the atmosphere is rising faster than predicted.
    Arctic sea ice is declining faster than predicted.
    The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are “collapsing” faster than predicted.
    Glaciers everywhere are disappearing faster than predicted.
    Hurricanes are increasing faster than predicted.
    The Oceans are all turning into vinegar faster than predicted.
    Everything, everywhere on the planet is getting worse faster than predicted.
    When are you people going to wake up and realize there isn’t a moment to lose to act to save us from our doomed fate.
    Or as Emily Litella used to say “Never Mind”.

  31. I called this about 3 months ago, but it might be a little early for my victory dance. We are still in El Nino conditions, fading or not, and they have declined several times this summer.

    From my 7-23 snowmobiling blog posting, “The ENSO models have it lasting through winter. I’d put 20 on it that it doesn’t.”

    From August 13th..”The real scientists and I have some pretty wide disagreement on how we think that winter will go down. They are saying a mild to moderate El Nino year and they are pretty sure of it. I am thinking more along the lines of a mild La Nina on up to a mild El Nino.”

    If it works out, it will be the third year in a row that I outguessed the guessers. I need a grant so’s I can get a model too..

    NOAA/CPC is sticking to their guns even as their El is turning into a La and the SOI is going positive. As of Sept. 10th…. “Synopsis: El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-2010. ” http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

    Yes eventually their credibility will be called into question like the Met’s is with their BBQ summers forecast.

    As far as renaming it, I don’t know. Right now the convention seems good enough if it is reported that it needs to dwell for a certain length of time to be an official El Nino. Some people don’t either because they don’t know about it, or they may be invested in the AGW/warming oceans theory.

  32. Speaking of eroded credibilities, here is the response of senior Senator Feinstein to an email from me, which was sent over a year ago. The stack was really deep, or the Senator is in short supply of interns.

    Some of you may have read Dr. Bob Carter’s The Futile Quest for Climate Control, http://www.quadrant.org.au/magazine/issue/2008/451/the-futile-quest-for-climate-control, In which Dr. Carter postulates: Climate change knows three realities: science reality, which is what working scientists deal with every day; virtual reality, which is the wholly imaginary world inside computer climate models; and public reality, which is the socio-political system within which politicians, business people and the general citizenry work.

    Senator Feinstein’s email is an example of the political reality of several years of bogus scientific propaganda..
    ————————————————————-
    Dear Mr. Scott:

    Thank you for writing to express your views about global warming. I appreciate hearing your thoughts, and I welcome the opportunity to respond.

    I believe that there is convincing scientific evidence that global warming is happening and has already begun to change the world as we know it. Eight of the Earth’s nine warmest years on record have occurred since 2001, and these rising temperatures are shrinking snow packs and glaciers, changing patterns of drought and flooding, and increasing the frequency and intensity of wildfires.

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – whose work reflects the consensus view of more than 600 leading scientists from 42 countries around the world – released its Fourth Assessment Report in 2007, which stated that human activity has “very likely” caused the earth’s temperature to rise more than 1 degree Fahrenheit over the last century alone. Scientific experts predict that this warming trend will continue in the decades to come and agree that greenhouse gas emissions produced by human activity – such as the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, and agriculture – are the leading cause of that warming.

    In order to avoid potentially catastrophic climate change, I believe that the United States must take swift action to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels, decrease greenhouse gas emissions, and make a permanent shift toward clean, renewable energy and energy efficient technologies. The cost of failing to act to address climate change far exceeds the cost of taking the necessary steps to slow it. A recent study by researchers at Tufts University found that inaction could cost the U.S. economy as much as 3.6 percent of the gross domestic product, or $3.8 trillion annually by 2100.

    Again, thank you for writing. Although we may not agree on this subject, I hope you will continue to keep in touch on matters of importance to you. Should you have any further questions or comments, please contact my Washington, DC office at (202) 224-3841. Best regards.

    Sincerely yours,

    Dianne Feinstein
    United States Senator

  33. I’m surprised to learn that long-range forecasters have any credibility left. I obtained a BS in meteorology/climatology in 1996. Upon graduation, I had the distinct impression that the science of climate was a young science and that it was impossible, given what we knew about the earth’s climate at the time, to predict long-term patterns with any reasonable degree of accuracy. Now, 13 years later, I am supposed to believe that all of the mysteries of climate have been resolved and neatly accounted for in computer models. Give me a break!

  34. _Jim (12:03:48) :

    Three Q’s:

    Q #1 What is a climatologist doing at the “Jet Propulsion Laboratory”?

    A: Providing balance between the west coast and the east coast.

    Q #2 Can we not consilidate the climatological duties at GISS with those at JPL?

    A: Absolutely not, unless the offices are merged in the center of the country.
    Otherwise we will reach a tipping point and the country will fall into the
    ocean.

    Q #3 Am I paying for this redundancy?

    A: Yes.

    This reminds me – I haven’t heard the term “tipping point” lately. Perhaps
    the tippers are getting concerned that the temperature isn’t tipping?

  35. _Jim (12:03:48) :

    “Three Q’s:

    […] Q #3 Am I paying for this redundancy?”

    Paying and paying and paying and paying and paying…

  36. There is no ‘tipping point,’ except in the minds of Al Gore’s true believers. There is a concerted effort by people in government, in academia, and by their enablers in the major media to game the system to promote their AGW agenda. Prof Richard Lindzen:

    Public perceptions, under the influence of extensive, deceptive, and one-sided publicity, can become disconnected from reality. For example, Alabama has had a pronounced cooling trend since 1935. Nevertheless, a poll among professionals in Alabama found that about 95 percent of the participants believed that the climate had been warming over the past fifty years and that the warming was due to the greenhouse effect. Public misperceptions coupled with a sincere desire to “save the planet” can force political action even when politicians are aware of the reality. [source]

    What Prof Lindzen describes is pure rent-seeking, based on deliberately false propaganda. By the time the general public catches on to what’s happening, their standard of living will be substantially reduced and their freedom restricted by unaccountable bureaucrats. And for what? For the mendacious demonization of an entirely beneficial trace molecule.

  37. I don’t see the link with el nino want to be strong believing and saying: you see AGW! If there would be a supernino and the overal temps are lower than 98 then agw is busted.

  38. How much do you need to twist and jump in order to avoid telling the truth about what will be? They won’t say it… that the planet is cooling.

  39. This year’s El Nino appeared to be off to a strong start, but has fizzled.

    “It’s actually eroding the credibility of long-range forecasters and climatologists.”

    Now thats not good is it? Would it further erode the credibility of long-range forecasters and climatologists if the world started cooling instead of warming?

    We dont want the credibility of those guys to be eroded just because they are proved wrong.

  40. God forbid! Forecasters and climatologists losing credibility, get used to it.

    Actually, without wishing to appear arrogant, I predicted a ‘still born’ El Nino months ago just using the power of my intuitive intellect.

  41. Can somebody fault me on my logic here, please.
    According to the carbon cycle, ~220 Gtons of Carbon equivalent goes up into the atmosphere each year. There’s about 770Gtons up there already, which at 385 ppm, would infer that 2Gtons = 1ppm. About 1.4ppm is being added each year, which means about 3Gtons more is staying up than is falling down.
    Allowing for volumetric to mass conversions, this means about 98% of the CO2 that goes up falls straight back down again within the year, which seems about right since CO2 is 1.5 times heavier than air.
    Further, the nub of the argument is how much warming is as a result of CO2, and how much is natural variability. The IPCC puts it at 2.5-4degC per doubling of CO2, whereas the skeptics, at least the ones I read, put it at 0.6-1degC.
    My best guess is that we will have a slightly warmer year next year (but not as warm as 1998) as a result of El Nino, and then a slow cooling for 20 years, in line with previous coolings, probably reversing about 1/3rd of the recent warming.
    If it does that temps will be about 0.8degC warmer than 1850. It will also have given us six cycles of PDO warm and cool (3 each), so whatever amount above the levels we were at in 1850, could probably be said to be as a result of greenhouse gas forcing.
    We’ve gone from 280 ppm in 1850 to about 420ppm by the end of the next cool phase, if the current trend persists. So that would suggest to me that 1.2-1.4degC (because GHG forcing is logarithmic) would be the amount of forcing per doubling, all other things being equal.
    Anthropogenic CO2 constitutes about 3-4% of total CO2 emissions. The atmosphere is not God, it cannot decide to keep human produced CO2 up and let the naturally produced CO2 fall to Earth, so logically speaking, human emissions of CO2 cannot possibly result in catastrophic climate change, yes?
    Paul

  42. Barry L. (12:28:38) :

    El Nono. yep,that’s a winner,pard.
    Like a lot better than El Midoki or whatever…

  43. Hey! Wait a minute ~ eroding credibility of long-range forecasters? When did forecasters & climatologists have credibility much beyond a day or two out?

  44. Wait! Hold it! Let the experts talk:

    El Nono =”Granpa” in Italian , no cigar here…
    “Niñoito” no such word in Spanish
    El Niñito = could be, is diminutive of Niño

    Diminutives and aumentaitves are additive in Spanish:

    Niñitito = a much smaller niñito.
    Niñón = a big Niño;
    Niñazo = a much bigger Niño,

    and as we say in Córdoa, Argentina: “Niñazón” –or the biggest you can ever imagine: “Niñazononón”.

    PS: Dave Wendt: You recite of the Green Litany was pathetically funny! You forgot to include: Ora pro nobis, et cum spiritu tuo…

  45. Climate experts no longer spend time in the open, it would seem. I’m on the mid-coast NSW, and, yes, it’s been a very mild, dry winter and early spring. But this winter had something in common with the two previous winters, which were wet, long and cold: namely, the winds are still predominantly ocean-influenced, more north/south, less westerly, if I can put it that way.

    This is a very striking climate feature of the last three years, and something quite at odds with the trend of the last thirty years. Personally, I’m not sure what to make of it. We may have El Nino, we certainly have drought…but this is not the dry, windy, positive-ion charged springs I’ve known for the last few decades. It’s sappy and kind of European.

    Yes, we still get westerlies, but not for long and not for three days with great force. What’s happening? Am I the only one to observe this? Too anecdotal to be part of any “model”?

  46. Eduardo Ferreyra (16:18:31) :

    I like: “Niñitito = a much smaller niñito” for this one.

    But why don’t we just call it ‘a Hansen’?

  47. “David: An expected warming event that does not pan out should be named “El Goreo”

    More accurately: “El Gorreado” (means someone who’s been trumped by his wife. The traditional French “cocú”).

  48. Ric Werme (13:01:28) :

    “This reminds me – I haven’t heard the term “tipping point” lately. Perhaps
    the tippers are getting concerned that the temperature isn’t tipping?”

    Isn’t Al Gore’s wife called ‘Tipper’?… She might be getting worried.

  49. This is what happens when you crown experts out of individuals who have no track record of forecasting the ENSO. Or very little at the most. You bring down the creditability of the forecasting community as whole. Even those who have had success. And a long one at that.

    The bottom line…. Hansen should have never been labled an expert ENSO forecaster. And his forecasts should have never been given the spotlight.

  50. Dave Wendt (12:29:21)

    “. . . Everything, everywhere on the planet is getting worse faster than predicted . . .”

    Dear Dave,

    Thanks for the tongue in cheek spoof of AGW scaremonger rhetorical checklist. Your superb parroting puts the real AGW hysterics to shame. Incidentally, I am truly impressed by your fluency with the language of the apocalypse that prophesies the impending demise of the mankind: it is worthy of any experienced roadside revival preacher (perhaps another job is waiting in the wings?).

    The language is indeed frightening–it sounds as though we are well on our way on a rollercoaster ride to hell. How do I repent, stop drinking carbonated beverages, or stop breathing all together? Would more assiduous soft drink container recycling and frequent use of breath fresheners do the trick? I certainly hope so: I am too addicted to carbon–I am afraid that I might die without it.

    All the best

  51. … I think we are paying our bureaucrats too much money for bad service and advice….. Time to vote for politicians who have a mindset of reviewing performance, before employing or funding.

  52. NAO,PDO and AMO are all now positive. No sign of major cool weather ahead here in the near term[next three months]. However, the Southern Hemisphere SST has been cooling . If this continues watch for cooler weather 6-8 months down the line . I see cooler weather starting in the latter part of 2010 as the long term trend of NAO[WINTER],PDO and AMO are all negative or cool.

  53. There is a very large amount of money to be made from a climate model with even reasonably accurate predictions 3 to 24 months out.

    Such a model could well exist already and its creator making a great deal of money trading natural gas and commodity futures.

    I know that NG futures are good predictors of temperatures a couple of weeks out. Whether they a good predictor over longer time periods is hard to determine because so many factors come into play.

  54. Did you all notice the source of the first report cited above:

    “LOS ANGELES, Sept. 20 (Xinhua) — This year’s El Nino would be mild, resembling the pattern of 2006 and 2007, weather experts said in remarks published on Sunday.”

    Xinhua, which used to be called, in English, the New China News Agency, is the official news service of the Chinese Communist Party. I find it interesting that they are putting out an article that provides a counter-balancing news story that differs from the “OMG we are all going to die” stuff put out by most of the Legacy Media.

    And who said that having an undergraduate degree in Chinese Mandarin wouldn’t be useful?

    Cheers,

    John

  55. We could rename La Nina and El Nino cycles as follows.

    La Nina = Bada Bing

    El Nino = Bada Boom

    So it’ll either be Bada Bing or Bada Boom all the time…

  56. I love the pic of the Hurricane off the Eastern seaboard…. its about 1/3 the size of the continental United States. Category 7 storm?

  57. Well the Japanese Marine and Space Agency initially said way back in March that the El Nino would be barely an El Nino, and their statement flew in the face of most other weather bureau predictions (including our own here in Australia – the BoM). The the Japanese seemed to have got caught up in the hype of forecasting an El Nino. But it appears they’ve stuck to their word and are saying it will be a mild one. Our Bureau of Met here in Oz can’t seem to work it out, and their commentary on their fortnightly ENSO Wrap Up is trying to have a bet both ways.

    If you look at the latest SOI values of the past 6-8 weeks, if anything we could be headed for another La Nina episode!

  58. Mike Bryant (12:18:40) :

    Little El Niño = El Niñito
    Super El Niño = El Niñon

    Little El Niño = El Niñito
    Super El Niño = El Niñote
    Stronger El Niño = El Niñonón
    Current El Niño = El… Errr… Niño-Niña

    ;)

  59. Re: paulhan 15:43:33 Yes, a molecule of CO2 has a lot more mass than a mixed molecule of air (about 80% nitrogen, and about 20% oxygen). But that does not lead to CO2 separating out and falling to the surface by earth’s gravitation. Brownian movements of the molecules keep them pretty well mixed. To separate the two by using the mass difference, you would need something like the gas centrifuges used to separate uranium hexafluoride isomers, where the g-forces are many times that of earth.

  60. “Niñoito” no such word in Spanish

    Yeah, but I was going for a diminutive of “El Niño”, not the diminutive of “Niño”. Of course, then we’d be teaching bad Spanish to millions.

    I’m also tempted by “Nacho Libre”, but more tickled with a diminutive of “Bada Bing” whatever it might be (“Bada Bing Bada?”).

  61. Retired BChe (20:04:21) :

    Thanks.
    Do CO2 molecules actually bind to other molecules in the air? I had this vision of CO2 getting released into the atmosphere, and then getting carried up on air currents, whereupon they then start to descend. More heat would tend to keep them up a little longer, and less heat allow them to fall quicker. I appreciate this is simplistic, but is this not how it works?
    Paul

  62. I’ve got a better idea. We keep calling them El Nino and La Nina (because that’s what they are) but we just stop making ridiculous Armageddon-like predictions concerning them.

  63. OT: Some corrections from a Spaniard:

    La Niña = The child (female)
    El Niño = The child (male). The oceanic pattern got this name referencing little child Jesus because it usually gets stronger around Christmas.
    Niñito / Niñín = little child (male).
    Niño chiquitín = very little child (male).
    Niñato = nasty child (male)
    Niñazo = big child (male) / a hit using a child (any sex) as the hitting tool.

    Niñón / Niñote: also posible as “big child”, but not in use, at least in Spain.

    “Nono” doesn’t exist. However “Ñoño” is an adjective that means both “prudish” and “dull”.

    Regarding the noun-adjective order in spanish, first-noun-then-adjective is normally the preferred order, but it is not mandatory and the opposite is also correct in most cases (it only sounds a bit strange). However a few adjectives change their form depending on where they are put: Niño grande = Gran niño.

  64. Who was forecasting a Super El Nino? I don’t recall any agency predicting one earlier this year. Hansen shouldn’t count – he isn’t a forecaster; he doesn’t work for a forecasting agency (GISS, as far as I know doesn’t issue forecasts), and he shouldn’t be issueing forecasts in any event. Did NOAA’s LRF guys predict a Super El Nino earlier this year? Everyone I know from Joe Bastardi to Anthony Watts were expecting this years El Nino as far back as last autumn, but I can’t recall anyone forecasting a Super El Nino.

    When I forecasted the weather many moons ago, one of the first things an old salt told me is to never forecast record events and stay with persistence until you have enough concrete evidence to support going against it. I would take quite a bit of hard concrete data for forecasters to predict a Super El Nino.

  65. Wade (12:00:54) :
    We can call the little El Niño events El Pequeño Niño. I don’t know much Spanish, but I do know pequeño means little. And that rhymes, which is what I like. (I always forget which types of adjectives go before or after the noun in Spanish. Except color, I know color goes after the noun.)

    Hence “pikininny” in pidjin – little child

  66. JP:
    From NOAA in July: “NOAA expects this El Niño to continue developing during the next several months, with further strengthening possible. The event is expected to last through winter 2009-10. . . . NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth’s environment . . .”
    From Climate Progress: “NOAA says “El Niño arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10″ — and that means record temperatures are coming and this will be the hottest decade on record.”
    From NOAA in September: NEW YORK (Reuters) – The U.S. Climate Prediction Center said Thursday the El Nino weather anomaly should strengthen this fall and through the 2009/10 northern hemisphere winter.

  67. Mike McMillan (12:59:40) :

    La Nada.

    Indeed. Two or three of the required 5 running 3 month averages equals nada. Thank you for participating, NOAA. What size T-Shirt would you like?

  68. re: JP (05:00:41):
    “Who was forecasting a Super El Nino?”

    I also could not find any agency/forecaster predicting a “super” el nino this year. Even the reference to Hansen’s prediction at the top of the post was for the 2006/2007 season…

  69. AnonyMoose (21:30:56) :

    “Niñoito” no such word in Spanish

    Yeah, but I was going for a diminutive of “El Niño”, not the diminutive of “Niño”. Of course, then we’d be teaching bad Spanish to millions.

    I’m also tempted by “Nacho Libre”, but more tickled with a diminutive of “Bada Bing” whatever it might be (”Bada Bing Bada?”).

    AnonyMoose is correct; the correct way would be El Niño-ito for a little “El Niño”. If we were referring to a little boy in Spanish, it should be “el niñito” or “el chiquillo”.

  70. Adam (10:14:25) : “. . . the reference to Hansen’s prediction at the top of the post was for the 2006/2007 season…”

    Actually GISS has persisted in a forecast of a strong El Nino. From GISS Jan. 13, 2009: “Given our expectation of the next El Niño beginning in 2009 or 2010, it still seems likely that a new global temperature record will be set within the next 1-2 years . . .” If you wish to be picky, yes, GISS did not use the word “super” in their website, but I remember many references to a strong El Nino a fe months ago, with reiteration that we will have new temperature records.

    BTW: I wonder what kind of fool would bet against the house, when house gets to announce what is in its hand without verification.

  71. “The 2009 “super El Nino” predicted by some may be a “fizzle” according reports attributed to NASA JPL’s Climatologist Bill Patzert.

    It’s difficult to take this article seriously when it doesn’t even cite one single instance of anyone predicting a 2009 ‘super El Niño’.

  72. An Inquirer (17:44:28) : “Actually GISS has persisted in a forecast of a strong El Nino. From GISS Jan. 13, 2009: “Given our expectation of the next El Niño beginning in 2009 or 2010, it still seems likely that a new global temperature record will be set within the next 1-2 years . . .” If you wish to be picky, yes, GISS did not use the word ‘super’…”

    It’s not exactly being picky, is it? They predicted an El Niño in 2009 or 2010 and they were right. They are predicting a new global temperature record in the next 1 – 2 years and we will have to wait and see if they are right on that one too.

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