WUWT readers may recall seeing this article last week:
Arctic temperature is still not above 0°C – the latest date in fifty years of record keeping
In that article, Joe D’Aleo presented a graph from the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) that showed that the area above 80 degrees north had still not climbed above freezing point of fresh water. Granted sea water doesn’t freeze until around -4°C, but that not is what was most interesting. It was the flat-top appearance of the graph which when you go back though the years provided on the DMI web page, doesn’t seem to have appeared before.
This is the the DMI graph (annotated by WUWT) from yesterday’s data, July 1st, which appeared today. There is a one day update lag. The original graph is available here at DMI.
I also provided a 2x magnified inset of the current period of interest.
The current temperature derivation (T799) is in red, while the 1958-2002 mean from their data is in green. I had expected by now that the “flat-top” would be growing into a rise similar to the top of the mean curve, but it has remained flat.
Again, this flat-top doesn’t seem to be found in any of the older data. If I were of a Mannian mood, I might be tempted to label this as “unprecedented” since record keeping began.
But there may be some other explanations. As we’ve seen with NSIDC, they’ve had some sensor problems, while that is unconnected here, the possibility of such things exists not only in the input data, but also in the processing of the data. There may be a software change or some other contributing factor.
The floating ice buoy I referenced in my last post, the “North Pole Cam” operated by NOAA (Link is here: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/gallery_np.html )still has air temperatures from its two probes below the freezing mark, ~ minus 2°C which you can see here:
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/weather_data/2009/07100_hdr.wx
So the data may very well be real. Notice also that the trend in DMI plots for the last few years since 2000 has been ever so slightly below the mean. Since the sea ice melt may be driven more by wind and currents, what effect it may have on the 2009 sea ice melt season remains to be seen. I think it would be safe to say though, that NSIDC’s director, Mark Serreze won’t be issuing an “ice free north pole” soundbite this year.
I’m putting the DMI temperature plot into the “widgets” section of the WUWT sidebar, as I expect there will be continuing interest.
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I will be very surprised if that turns out not to be a measurement or processing problem.
Are you sure the sensor is not snow/ice covered!
If you do a Mannian preferred component analysis to remove data values you did not expect, isn’t there unprecedented warming underway up there?
Presenting actual data that has not been properly filtered can only mislead readers, don’t you think?
The link on the – appreciated – widget is not functioning (yet?)
Regards
Theo Richel
REPLY: Live editing, try now – A
Go, Baby Ice, Go
==========
How do you test data collection? There could have been a few sensors that recieved warmer water at the time the graph reached zero that brought the average upward early.
Is there a surface temperature station in the vicinity that can confirm this lack of temperatures above freezing?
I did a little check at noaa – FWIW http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/temperature/global_temp_accum.shtml
Northern Canada appears above average
Northern Alaska appears below average
Spitsbergen appears above average
“North pole” data, still below zero though … as it should, see the other years …
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/gallery_np_weatherdata.html
JUNE (month end averages) NSIDC
1980 Southern Hemisphere = 13.2 million sq km
1980 Northern Hemisphere = 12.3 million sq km
Total = 25.5 million sq km
2008 Southern Hemisphere = 14.5 million sq km
2008 Northern Hemisphere = 11.4 million sq km
Total = 25.9 million sq km
2009 Southern Hemisphere = 14.4 million sq km
2009 Northern Hemisphere = 11.5 million sq km
June Total = 25.9 million sq km
May Total = 24.8 million sq km –Northern Hemisphere = 13.4 million sq km
Mark Serreze won’t be issuing an “ice free north pole” soundbite this year.
He’s probably on the back foot after the way the “ice death spiral” soundbite worked out.
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/latest/noaa1.jpg
Well compared to what we saw at this time last year (with melt patches appearing), it does look colder up there.
It’s a cool NH year. I wonder if anyone else heard that it was below freezing in Edmonton a few nights ago (-0.6C), and that is at 53° 34′ N. As usual, I offer the disclaimer that even though SOME people think Canada is a land of igloos and dog sleds over tundra, it’s not. An overnight below freezing at this time of year is potentially devastating to crops.
Here in Calgary, it’s almost Stampede week… usually that is the sign that we can definitely rely on summer temperatures (most often with a daily thunderstorm). So far we’ve only seen a bare handful of days you could call “warm”, and the few thunderboomers wandering by have been relatively anemic.
I know, I know, it’s all anecdotal and non-scientific. Too bad. The last year I remember being like this was 1992, and we all know what happened then.
As I recall the ‘Arctic Cam’ last year had both the internal and external temperature shown, this year only the internal (which is +2.5C in the latest photo and seemed to be 2-4C higher than the external temp). Any reason they stopped showing the ‘external’ temp?
What about the Catlin exp?haven’t heard much about results lately…
Have to keep in mind too that there have been at least three volcanic eruptions with ‘cooling’ effects. Im not suprised its cooler this year.
This magical air temperature gets another post? Obviously, the air temperature being at/or below zero is not a good measure of whether the ice is melting, because it is anyway- on par with last year.
Water temperature probably is more important since ice mainly melts from below.
What’s up with the ice-free north pole comments? It’s perfectly normal for that to occur; it has and will continue to happen. This very blog recently has a post on it. So if WUWT says it happens, then it’s fine, but if someone non-WUWT makes a comment, it’s grounds for belittlement?
While it’s debatable that warmer temperatures are a sign of AGW, I am absolutely certain that cooler temps are not!
Still, I’m sure somebody will find an ‘adjustment’ to make it all go away.
The temps. just………flatlined.
Whether or not it’s because of Redoubt and Serychev, it really does seem like there’s the start of cooler times at the pole.
And we do know it’s not because of the world’s factories and cars, as a matter of fact Iceagenow recently observed that the CO2 level is still rising at the same pace with no dip or slow-down because of the major global recession.
If it gets any warmer….
Mannian
Hope you don’t mind, but I just submitted this to Urban Dictionary. It was just too good.
Once you’ve begun the death spiral of the arctic, there’s no stopping it. Unless of course, it doesn’t get above freezing.
I’d be willing to bet that sensor is laying in a pool of water on top of the ice, that would explain constant 0°C temps (if air temps were high enough to melt water that is)
Here is up to date tepms at pole
http://www.uni-koeln.de/math-nat-fak/geomet/meteo/winfos/synNNWWarctis.gif
and atmospheric pressure
http://www.uni-koeln.de/math-nat-fak/geomet/meteo/winfos/arcisoTTPPWW.gif
No mulfuction of the sensors .
at the end of may occasinaly there was +2C
Webside updates 4 times per day
I love the way snarkiness appears as if from elsewhere as soon as a metric formerly supporting alarmism wanders from the fold and anyone has the temerity to report it where it can be digested by many thousands of possible converts. The sound of tables turning.
You do know that we, on this side of your non-debate, have remained even tempered and polite in the face of threatening behaviour and demeaning name calling, amongst other “things”, when we have dared to question credo?
This was one of the pointers that made me seek a deeper truth than that presented by climate scientists and the mainstream media. Also one of the main reasons that has made me angrier than a trapped wasp and determined to see this through to the end.
Please stop acting as if you are right. There is still no evidence that CO2 did it, does it or will do it.
In addition to the temperature charts, I generally look at the webcam a couple of times a day. One thing I have noticed this year is the lack of sunny days up there. It seems like they get overcast skies for days at a time and then only partial sunshine.
George Tobin (10:29:43) :
If you do a Mannian preferred component analysis to remove data values you did not expect, isn’t there unprecedented warming underway up there? Presenting actual data that has not been properly filtered can only mislead readers, don’t you think?
PCA – Preferred Component Analysis
That about sums AGW up, doesn’t it? Valuable addition to the discourse, George. 🙂