excerpts:
From Joe’s European Weather Blog:
The current unseasonable cold across northwest Europe is not the only place where the arctic hound is calling as yet another blast of reality gets lobbed into the base camp of agenda driven warmingistas, who of course refuse to see anything that could possibly challenge their false idols. I will not say that the cold that has been occurring is a sign an ice age it is on the way, but it is a sign that people worldwide had better wake up to the idea that the “science is in” crowd does not want them to see facts.
First of all, cries out of the U.S. government-based NOAA of “Here comes El Nino” are 5 months late to a party I starting throwing last winter. They are out of touch on this being a warm year unless of course they get to skew the data worldwide. The satellites which measure temps without instrument bias have been seeing the cooling. But here we find the private sector saying something 5 months before, and now the U.S. government mets are suddenly seeing it and issuing a) el nino watches and then b) taken the nonsensical step of saying we will have a hot time because of it. The El Nino is coming while the PDO is cold, and a winter more harsh than last year may be shaping up for Europe.
And from an AccuWeather article on lightning, Joe says parts of the US may have a year without a summer”:
According to Long Range Expert Joe Bastardi, areas from the northern Plains into the Northeast will have a “year without a summer.” The jet stream, which is suppressed abnormally south this spring, is also suppressing the number of thunderstorms that can form.
Yikes!
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day forecast says it is already shaping up to be a cold June:
and the 30 day CPC forecast here
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Joe Bastardi!!
I’ve always liked him. And I have wished to see some guest posts from him here!!!
small typo thats year not ear without a summer
REPLY: Thanks fixed. – Anthony
In PHX AZ it was 90 degrees today and the cool weather started last Friday. This is Arizona in June where it is never this cool for any more than a day. Clouds have been in the sky just about every day for a couple of weeks as well. As an AZ native of 34 years, this weather does not happen here.
A good example of the way two different organizations operate:
Accuweather is a for-profit entity – they’ve got to get it right else they won’t be in business for long. So they stick their necks out long before NOAA ever mumbles anything about an El Niño.
The impression I used to have is that NOAA’s NWS was the ‘gold standard’ in weather forecasting; it’s now looking more like fool’s gold as the impression I’m getting is that they look at how the data conforms to their models. Probably fallout from the poor scientific methods being practiced these days by the closed climate science community.
And in fifty years, this era of the AGW belief system will be looked on as a silly mass movement rooted in nothing but mass hysteria.
The phrase “year without a summer” has been used to describe a particular historic period that was quite severe and followed the explosion of Mount Tambora. I don’t sense that this post is suggesting anything quite so drastic although maybe that is the idea. Maybe a clarification is possible.
I wouldn’t take those seasonal models to seriously. My understanding is that they have poor performance.
Here in Minnesota, “summer” so far was two days in May that hit record warms in the 90s. Other than that, it’s mostly been unseasonably cool, sometimes with highs in the 50s in June!
If anybody could find anymore on the “year without a summer” comment, I’d be most grateful. I’ve been looking around accuweather, and elsewhere, but can’t find anything. Maybe it was a private comment. I don’t know.
“The satellites which measure temps without instrument bias have been seeing the cooling. ”
Does he mean the global cooling since 2008?
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:2008/plot/rss/from:2008/trend
or in the last 12 months?
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/last:12/plot/rss/last:12/trend
REPLY: why don’t you write and ask him the question directly instead of your snark? He puts his email address right on his blog, reposted here for your convenience:
bastardi@accuweather.com
I suspect he may be correct about the northern plains. I just checked the records for my locale here in SE MN and since the start of May we’ve had 9 days where the daily aver temp had a positive departure from normal, 1 in the last 18 days. The numbers for daily highs and lows are comparable, with one daily record low in May. Evidently Mr. Waxman was right and all that evaporating ice has caused the arctic tundra to raise up enough to ramp all that cold down here to the lower 48. BTW, Joe Bastardi? Ain’t he the guy who killed Kenny? Sorry, couldn’t help myself. He’s probably heard that one as often as I’ve heard Hey Wendt, where’d you go?
part 2, Joe Bastardi on global warming. Starts at 2:05 of video :
Leon Brozyna (22:04:06) : “…And in fifty years, this era of the AGW belief system will be looked on as a silly mass movement rooted in nothing but mass hysteria.”
This era will also be looked on as the time when the mass media wrote themselves full tilt into social irrelevance and financial suicide.
Stuck weather patterns.
The West is stuck with an unusually far south Low.
Last year it was the winds. Windstorms.
People are noticing.
In Sacramento, in June, you go to work dressed for hot weather.
Not this year. Don’t put that sweather away just yet.
2.5 years into this minimum, and this is what the most prevalent active regions on the sun graph out like: http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/2006_9a.JPG
Don’t hold your breath expecting the 2nd quarter of 09 to be that much different than the 1st quarter.
We’ve had a few spots, the flux is up, but other than that, this graphic tells a lot about how strong things are:
http://www.solen.info/solar/images/swind1.gif
Correlation? Yes.
Causation? Does it really matter??
If nothing changes, expect more of the same.
Accuweather in general and Joe Bastardi in particular have an excellent reputation with the investing crowd. I’ve seen him on at least two, and I think it may have been three (!) competing financial channels in the same week. They don’t waste their time on other sources. He talks, and the futures traders place bets. It’s that simple.
Millions of dollars move in minutes. I remember last year when a hurricane was headed into the gulf. He predicted what it would do to oil facilities (where it would hit) and prices moved in sync. There was maybe a 2 minute lag from when he spoke to when prices moved. Even the floor brokers had to be watching (or had a feed into the ear bug…).
He is right far more often than not. I have tremendous respect for the man and anything he says.
Also: At least you all can see The Big Blue Blob sitting on top of my head…
If you draw a line from the “kink” in California where it wraps around Nevada to the bottom edge of the “ear” that is San Francisco bay, I’m at the earlobe 😉 more or less…
See, I wasn’t just griping with no good reason… I was griping with a perfectly good reason 8-{
And it looks like we’re “special” enough to stay under The Big Blue Blob for the next 30 days. Oh Joy. /sarcoff>
Somebody tell Pamela to start trialing Barley cultivars and looking for a local mill / purchaser or brewpub that malts their own… Or maybe oats…
Maybe the UK Met is operating on the axiom that if you just keeping predicting the same thing, eventually you’re bound to be right.
Pofarmer (22:35:49) :
The year without a summer was 1816.
In Europe, the summer was cold, wet, dark & gloomy.
In the Northern US, it was the “year without the summer”. Killing frosts occured in every month, and crops were widely ruined.
In Ohio, it was known as Eighteen Hundred and froze to death.
In New England, it was known as “The Mackerel Year” (they ate fish because everything else failed !!).
Do keep in mind that 1816 was in the middle of SC6. The 2nd bum cycle in the Dalton Minimum. We’ve a long way to go… provided SC24 gets off the ground. No guarantees.
The cold extends from the northern plains into southern Alberta, where even the most cautious gardener has been hammered this spring. Sub-zero temperatures in the cities of Calgary and Lethbridge rarely occur beyond the May 24 long weekend. This year, Calgary has seen snow in June, and Lethbridge has had 4 days below zero Celsius in June (after 10 sub-zero nights in May), including the coldest temperature ever recorded in the month of June (all-time). 30 cm of snow was reported in parts of the SE corner of Alberta and the SW corner of Saskatchewan on June 6. It has been undeniably out-of-the-ordinary, with nothing similar in the climate record in nearly sixty years, and with all-time records commonplace. In northern Montana, a huge snowstorm affected the plains in May, and the plains turned white yet again in many regions – this time in June. Above normal temperatures are finally predicted by Friday, but the region has had below normal temperatures in most months during the past two years. I, for one, am sick of the negative PDO and the extended solar minimum, or whatever the heck is causing this.
Flanagan, I suspect he’s looking at the bigger picture
Click Here
You [snip -ad hom] if you believe a 1 year plot will argue your [snip] cause….
Joe telling it like it is. It doesn’t get any better than this. Gee whiz, no post for Joe on “Real Climate”?
Re: Accuweather in general and Joe Bastardi in particular have an excellent reputation with the investing crowd.
Half baked baloney from a trash talking simpleton. E.M.Smith, try doing science instead of spin.
Global temperatures for Flanagan:
http://www.klimadebat.dk/forum/vedhaeftninger/glotempmay092.gif
El nino is 5 overlapping seasons at or above +.5 .. Considering it hasnt even gone positive yet, and 4 out of 5 of the last ‘seasons’ were La Nina conditions broken only by this last one at -0.1, isn’t it a little soon to be crowing about a El Nino this year?
You will be glad to know the winter in New Zealand so far has also been shaping up to be colder normal – but its just weather of course!
I’m in Singapore (1 degree north of the equator) for a few days. The maximum temperature here today was 32 degrees C. The maximum temperature here is always around 30-32 C.
My question for the global warmongers is this: Surely if we have been having global warming, the average temperature in Singapore should also be rising?
I’ve been reading Joe’s European blog for about a year.
I agree – I think it’d be great to have him as a guest writer! But I’m sure he has plenty on his plate already.
In any case I hope to hear more of his views, like this one here.
I think his forecasts have been more accurate than those from the UK MET circus.
@Just want results,
thanks for the clip.