Guest post by Steven Goddard
Two days ago I questioned how Antarctic ice could be both “melting faster than expected” and “expanding” at the same time. Yet (as WUWT has noted before) the answer is obvious – according to NASA, most of Antarctica is both cooling rapidly and heating rapidly at the same time.
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=6502
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/WilkinsIceSheet/images/wilkins_avh_2007.jpg
Since nearly the entire continent is both cooling and heating simultaneously, it makes perfect sense (using AGW logic) that the ice would be rapidly expanding and rapidly retreating simultaneously. In 2004, NASA thought that Antarctica was cooling by as much as 15 degrees C per century. But after three more years of cooling, they changed the map to show a warming trend in 2007.
The hot red warming trend seen in the second map has a stated uncertainty of “between 2-3 degrees Celsius” which means that it might actually represent a rapid cooling trend, rather than a warming trend. Vostok is averaging -96F this week. Does that make anyone think of hot, red colors?
Penguins trying to keep cool in NASA’s rapidly warming world
Nylo posted a link to an excellent parody of the state of Antarctic climate science, written by Dr. John Christy.
“What we believe,” Dr. Frost told ecoEnquirer, “is that a new paradigm is needed in scientific thought. Since mutually exclusive sets of scientific results usually are published in respected scientific publications, we suggest that they are both true. There is a higher level of physical understanding that must be developed, one where the Yin and Yang of scientific findings are reconciled, better understood, and appreciated.”
Good to see tax dollars hard at work, supporting serious and coherent science from the same organisation which put men on the moon – 40 years ago this July.
Shakespeare apparently saw AGW coming:
Much Ado About Nothing
The Comedy of Errors
All’s Well That Ends Well
Measure for Measure A Midsummer Night’s Dream The Tempest
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Oh!
Now I understand.
Thanks NASA!
Great to see that tax dollars are being used wisely.
This looks like the Antarctic Oceanic Oscillation to me. It seems to have tightened around the continent and warmed up. Could this be a heat pump bringing warm ocean temps to this tight circle of water, that is then released into the atmosphere and out through a blanketless hole? Could also explain the snow down there. I am guessing the water vapor levels are high.
Thanks for the article.
You only have to take a look at http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/ and read the articles to know that this organization is fully embedded in the Scare Scheme of Global Warming, fully paid by tax revenues.
Shame on them.
I remember the days when NASA was a well-respected body, capable of putting men on the moon and bringing them safely back to earth. I would say of ‘climate research’ that it’s not rocket science, but we know NASA is no longer capable of rocket science so it’s not surprising that it is not capable of doing ‘climate science’ either. What a sad state of affairs it is to see NASA having become such a pathetic organisation.
Now, finally, I know what they mean by “Climate Chaos”.
I’m pretty sure that ecoInquirer is the parodic work of Roy Spencer and not John Christy
Is this anything less than insanity? They pretend to be serious and expect to be taken so? Must be climate science 101, and psychotropic stimulation is necessary to ‘grok’ this. (my apologies to R. Heinlein for absconding his word)
And the number of actual observation poiints (measurement sites!) and their locations that these two “opposed” trends come from are ……. ?
More to the point: Are the people mesuring and recording and evaluating and exaggerating these trends are ….
Accurate?
Unbiased?
Dispassionate?
Analytical?
Critical?
Curious?
Interested?
Passionate?
Inept?
Inaccurate?
Disciples?
Promoters?
Evangelists?
No Bull Prize aspirants?
Noble Peace Prize aspirants?
The anomaly should be depicted as a lighter shade of blue-say Cobalt v.s. Sky blue?
I get really tired of a slight difference being shown as if there are palm trees growing in Antacrtica-now..
Help me understand this, the legend on the graph goes -0.1, -0.05, 0, 0.05, 0.1, plus or minus 2 or 3 whole degrees???
This agency put men on the moon? I’m starting to see why that old conspiracy theory about the lunar landings being faked is still kicking around. If we keep getting more nonsense like that graph with that legend yet such a huge uncertainty interval in the fine print, I’m going to start questioning EVERYTHING they’ve ever claimed.
Or at least start looking for some fineprint to read before I take anything they say at their word.
It’s the cognitive dissonance of a collapsing paradigm. It’s only going to get worse.
Another example. Yesterday, when Gore was questioned about his motivations he tried to grab the high ground with squeals about donating his profits to ‘charity’. Then he slipped up and asked his questioner if she was ‘anti-business’. That’s having your cake and eating it, too. It is especially so when the ‘charity’ involved is his huge ad campaign, peddling the false prospecti for his businesses. There oughta be a law.
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“…There is a higher level of physical understanding that must be developed, one where the Yin and Yang of scientific findings are reconciled, better understood, and appreciated.”
Ahhhh — now I understand.
Aristotelian logic is out and the higher realms of Platonic understanding are in.
…
That is quite an indictment of the (formerly) hard sciences.
Hey that’s climate chaos and it’s AGW in action. .
That’s the message from the Thom Hartmans and RFK Jrs on left wing radio.
I hear that all the time.
They’ve adopted all things varried in weather as signs of AGW.
Wetter, drier, cooler, warmer, flooding, burning.
Chaos is the default excuse as the climate is turning.
No poem intended.
You know Big Al’s got to be in trouble when he recycles his tired hackery about moon landings and Arizona movie sets, when he projects Madoff like fraud on to the skeptics, and when he tries to pretend his motivations are pure and his finances eleemosynary. What a joke. We may have to make a law especially for him, and it won’t be Cap and Trade. It’ll have criminal sanctions for his weapons of mass destruction.
Oh, yes, the topic du jour. Well, rising ice at both poles must really grind him.
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The second fiery looking map has a rang of .2 degrees c per/yr and and accuracy of 2-3 degrees C .
I guess that is suppose to make sense
It makes no sense to consider Antarctica to be a single climate. It’s a continent, for goshsakes (technical term)! It is quite possible and to be expected that some regions of Antarctica are warming while others are cooling. After all, the climate is supposed to change and the range of natural variability is probably greater than many people have been misled to believe.
If we indulge the fallacy of of single climate for Antarctica as a whole, it can’t be both warming and cooling, can it? Certainly it can, if we’re talking year to year, but not if we’re talking longer periods of measurement. Another issue here may be in trying to create a long-term trend from the data when no such clear trend actually exists. The noise-to-signal ratio is also too high, with the margin of error being greater than any of the noted change in climate.
Still, I can’t help but be puzzled when it’s all ‘consistent with the models’.
“What we believe,” Dr. Frost told ecoEnquirer, “is that a new paradigm is needed in scientific thought
Exactly, this is what Greenspan said about the new paradigm in innovative financial products, such as subprime mortgages:
“Innovation has brought about a multitude of new products, such as subprime loans and niche credit programs for immigrants. Such developments are representative of the market responses that have driven the financial services industry throughout the history of our country … With these advances in technology, lenders have taken advantage of credit-scoring models and other techniques for efficiently extending credit to a broader spectrum of consumers. … Where once more-marginal applicants would simply have been denied credit, lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately. These improvements have led to rapid growth in subprime mortgage lending; indeed, today subprime mortgages account for roughly 10 percent of the number of all mortgages outstanding, up from just 1 or 2 percent in the early 1990s.” With these advances in technology, lenders have taken advantage of credit-scoring models and other techniques for efficiently extending credit to a broader spectrum of consumers. The widespread adoption of these models has reduced the costs of evaluating the creditworthiness of borrowers, and in competitive markets cost reductions tend to be passed through to borrowers. Where once more-marginal applicants would simply have been denied credit, lenders are now able to quite efficiently judge the risk posed by individual applicants and to price that risk appropriately. These improvements have led to rapid growth in subprime mortgage lending; indeed, today subprime mortgages account for roughly 10 percent of the number of all mortgages outstanding, up from just 1 or 2 percent in the early 1990s.”
There is NO NEW PARADIGM in science. Unfortunately, just like in financial services, there is simply a “boom” in snake oil and outright liars. Like the Madoff lies, dishonesty in science is just as unsustainable….eventually you get caught and the fraud is exposed.
Madness… pure madness.
ecoEnquirer, eh? Any relation to the Enquirer at the supermart checkout?
There’s a reasonable response for scientific situations like this, and that’s to admit we don’t have a good handle on what’s happening. Or that we need to do more research … or that we are just plain puzzled by the data.
There are good reasons why mental states like denial or hysteria have a bad reputation, and it’s because they then to lead to progressively deteriorating performance. They’re not stable.
As we are cautioned in our early schooling, drugs like alcohol affect the higher levels of judgement, first. So it often appears to be with denial & hysteria, too: One’s capacity for the finer aspects of sensible judgement … just starts going haywire.
This seems to me an important distinction between classic religious lifestyles, and a lot of the contemporary environmental, Green, AGW quasi-religion: The former have achieved ongoing stability, whereas the latter are more like a slow-motion social train-wreck.
Sorry for the OT, but I’m on the ferry on my way to survey the Olga, WA USHCN site. It’s overcast and a nippy 46f according to my car thermometer, but looks like it might be clearing ahead.
The ferry is about to dock at Lopez Island, then it’s on to Orcas Island and Olga.
Hopfully I can locate the MMTS, the Google Earth image is very low res for that particular area. It looks to be at the end of a cul de sac.
I’m currently surrounded by a couple hundred cyclists who are about to disembark at Lopez.
Wish me luck!
I would add that the quote from Greenspan was from Feb 2004. So just like in financial services it takes a while for the fraud to be exposed. Sadly, this is despite the obvious fact that any intelligent rational person could have a worked out that subprime (giving loans to people who could not afford them on the premise that house prices would forever go up and they could re-mortgage) was based on faulty logic.
I believe the same is true for AGW. Although the science is a little more complex and it is much harder for the average person to immediately see the scam for what it is.
I wonder how much damage will be done before people realize that the world is not about to end and it isn’t getting dramatically warmer.
Kim – “Oh, yes, the topic du jour. Well, rising ice at both poles must really grind him.”
I’ve never actually met an environmentalist who actually cared what the facts were, and they certainly don’t let it both them. If they did DDT, Global Warming and Nuclear power bans would have never happened.
Oh and millions of humans, mostly children would be alive today, but again silly facts, ignore.
You have to wonder if Dr. Frost could be partially right, at least in the context of Stephen Hawkin’s statement that “Science doesn’t advance by replacing wrong answers with right answers but by replacing wrong answers with those that are more subtly wrong”.
It seems that I have read that the Antarctic Penninsula is a site of volcanic activity. Am I missing the point that the penninsula could be warming while the rest of the continent is remaining the same or even cooling. Mcintyre’s analysis of Steig’s work would seem to indicate this.
If so, wouldn’t this be an example of:
“Since mutually exclusive sets of scientific results usually are published in respected scientific publications, we suggest that they are both true. There is a higher level of physical understanding that must be developed, one where the Yin and Yang of scientific findings are reconciled, better understood, and appreciated.”
The NASA cohort that put men on the moon were 85% engineers. Engineers got Apollo 13 home.
If engineers were measuring Antarctic, or global, temperatures, we’d know what’s happening. AGWers would never permit that to happen.
John A,
You are correct. EcoEnquirer is Roy Spencer’s site, not John Christy.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/20/AR2006052001151.html
Apologies to all for the misinformation.