While I have reservations about the GISS dataset due to the many adjustments it endures, the GISS global temperature anomaly data for March 2009 has been published.
The March 2009 global anomaly is 0.47 °C, making it the coldest March since the year 2000.
As Luboš Motl points out:
That is also colder than March 1990 and 1998, That puts March 2009 out of the “top ten”. Also, the March 2009 global mean temperature differed by 0.03 °C only from the March 1981 figure – from a month when the ENSO/ONI index was pretty much equal to the current value. This cherry-picked monthly comparison would suggest that there may have been 0.03 °C of warming in 30 years.
Another blogger, Lucia plotted long term GISS trends and got some interesting results.
- 20 year (240 month) trends with end points going back in time and
- Trends starting on Jan 1979 and ending “N” months ago. So, N=0 ends in March 09, N=1 ends in February 09 and so on.
Here they are:
Figure 1: GISSTemp longish trends.
She notes:
- The trend computed from 1979 to now is higher than the trend computed from 1979 to 2001. (This fact is true as can be seen by comparing the trend represented red square that intersects the yellow line indicating Jan 2001 to the red square representing a trend ending in March 2009.)
- The 20 year trend ending with the month of Dec 2000 is higher than the 20 year trend computed now. (This is a true fact, as seen by comparing the blue diamond intersecting the yellow line to the blue diamond ending representing the trend ending in March 2009.)
- Both facts are supposed to convince us that global warming neither stalled nor ended in 2001.
Well…. I’ve haven’t claimed global warming stopped or stalled in 2001. (In any case I’m not sure precisely what those terms are supposed to mean. If all they mean is temperature trends are down since 2001…. well, they are! If they mean that GHG’s don’t tend to cause warming and warming won’t resume… Well, the data don’t mean that.)
While GISS went up a tiny bit, from 0.41 in February 09 to 0.47 °C in March 09, you could figure that .06 °C to be essentially unchanged month to month and part of the “noise”. The lack of any real increase in trends since 2001 is the most interesting part of the GISS story.
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Just the other day, Dr. James Hansen said that within 1 to 2 years we will again face record temperatures.
So, March was the tenth warmest this century. At least that is what I expect some of our warmies to publish at time now.
Speaking of the ENSO index, the SOI index according to bom.gov has been slowly going up since the beginning of this month and right now is almost to +5, it’s not a surge upward like other cases but it makes it look like a lot of ENSO models could be wrong again if it continues. SST anomolies look as if the easternmost part of the ENSO region is cooling down again which may be driving the SOI up.
Imagine what the anomaly would be without the cooking of data at GISS!!
Obviously James got it right! Atwenty year low is some sort of a record
What I want to know is the error bar. The max shown in the graph is 0.020 degree trend per year and that is one fiftieth of a degree per year in the real world.
Well, unless he actually said “record HIGH temperatures, he is probably safe.
GISSTemp ahead: Pass at your own risk!
The pesty Eurasian hotspot is still there in March, though it does appear to be shifting around a little.
March 2009 map of GISTEMP global temperature anomalies:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/do_nmap.py?year_last=2009&month_last=03&sat=4&sst=1&type=anoms&mean_gen=03&year1=2009&year2=2009&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=1200&pol=reg
And the February 2009 map of GISTEMP global temperature anomalies:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/do_nmap.py?year_last=2009&month_last=03&sat=4&sst=1&type=anoms&mean_gen=02&year1=2009&year2=2009&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=1200&pol=reg
If those links don’t work, here’s the main map generation page:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/
Dr. James Hansen said that within 1 to 2 years we will again face record temperatures. Or 3 to 4 or 5 to 6
or some future year to some future year
He is certain. The science is clear.
Well, that settles it.
You have got to be kidding me. 0.47C above normal at the end of a La Nina and with a severe protracted solar minimum and we are still pretending it’s not “warming”.
The days of wiggle watching are numbered. As the sun awakens and El Nino returns one can only guess how HOT the planets going to get.
If the cold had not persisted in North Dakota and Minnesota there would have been even more record flooding due to Global Warming. Dr. Hansen seems absolutely sincere and unfortunately fundamentally wrong.
“The 20 year trend ending with the month of Dec 2000 is higher than the 20 year trend computed now.”
From what I see, the 20-year trend in Dec 2000 was 0.013 degC/year and is now a little more than 0.018 degC/year.
But anyway, a nice article debunking the oft repeated statement that global warming stopped in 2001.
Imagine if they figured out that an “anomaly” really isn’t, except in their cherry-picking world of “my time frame is better than your time frame”.
Is the HADCrut data for March out?
According to GISS, of the 129 Marches for which there is global temperature, only 10 have been warmer than the one just past. They are (in order of increasing temperature): 2003, 2001, 1998, 2006, 2004, 2007, 2008, 1990, 2005, and 2002
I think there is something rather striking and obvious about the years which have been warmer. What do you think?
If you are going to refer to data back to 1979, and a 20 year trend – shouldn’t the graph start before 1996?
I would like to see it with my eyes.
Thanks graeme
How can man survive the terrible whipsaw of up and down absolute temperatures depicted in this graph?
http://junkscience.com/GMT/NCDC_absolute.gif
Tom P,
Careful with that word, ‘debunking.’ It works both ways.
GISS took their 1999 temperatures and “adjusted” them. Here’s a blink gif showing the result: click
I have always believed the fundamental question is the accuracy of all the temperature data. I find it difficult to believe and counter productive to use any graph which has units of 0.002C. The accuracy of GISS data does not allow any comment to be made that temperatures are rising or falling over this period. The temperature data has never been sensitve enough to make decisions that “will alter civilization as we know it”. Now that temperatures appears to be falling- we should not use statistically flawed GISS information to “prove” the point. AGW relied on statistically questionable temperature data to make its claim- we do ourselves a disservice to use the same questionable data to prove that AGW is false.
According to this I wouldn’t expect any continued warming probably up to next June, a month’s SST readings usually determines where the global temp. goes up to several months after
http://i41.tinypic.com/210njvs.jpg
And I checked the SOI index, the value is now higher than at any time during the last period where there was no El Nino or La Nina, it’s still early to tell whether or not it’ll continue going up and we get another La Nina, this could make a dent in April’s SST reading depending on whether there’s ocean cooling in other areas for the rest of the month and SOI keeps climbing (though slowly).
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
March 2009 is The Coldest March of the Millenium!
DJ (15:49:22) :
“You have got to be kidding me. 0.47C above normal at the end of a La Nina and with a severe protracted solar minimum and we are still pretending it’s not “warming”.
The days of wiggle watching are numbered. As the sun awakens and El Nino returns one can only guess how HOT the planets going to get.”
DJ – Your faith is strong. The force will be with you.
The temp trends for most of midwest US and western Canada seem too warm. Does anyone else see anything that stands out from their part of the world?