What a difference a year makes: Another record month for WUWT

30 09 2008

Today at 00 GMT (5PM PST) a new month started. Every time a new month of statistics starts being logged by WordPress for Watts Up With That, I say to myself, “there’s no way I’ll get this sort of traffic again”. And yet, again I’m surprised that WUWT not only met last months stats, but significantly exceeded them.

Thank you again, loyal readers.


Click for full sized image

It was one year ago that I moved from the Typepad blog to WordPress, and as you can see from above, the growth has been steady, except for one month, April. which had a slight dip.

For September 2008 the total was 846,193 page views, up from 667,215 page views in August 2008.

But there is a caveat, I think the real numbers are just shy of 800,000, because on the weekend of 09/20 and 09/21 I got quite a bit of unexpected traffic that I’m not sure is real or not. During that time, we got a lot of Spam on one particular older entry comparing UAH, RSS, HadCRUT, and GISS, but not anywhere near the numbers specific to that post, shown below: Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 63 Comments »

Categories : Announcements

Here’s the problem with the sun

30 09 2008

Newly discovered evidence that polar bears, CO2, climate change, and the sun are intimately connected in ways never envisioned.

No wonder the sun seems to be slowing down. Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 40 Comments »

Categories : fun_stuff

NASA: Sun is “blankety blankest” it’s been in the Space Age

30 09 2008

From NASA Science News h/t to John-X

Spotless Sun: 2008 is the Blankest Year of the Space Age

Sept. 30, 2008: Astronomers who count sunspots have announced that 2008 is now the “blankest year” of the Space Age.

As of Sept. 27, 2008, the sun had been blank, i.e., had no visible sunspots, on 200 days of the year. To find a year with more blank suns, you have to go back to 1954, three years before the launch of Sputnik, when the sun was blank 241 times.

“Sunspot counts are at a 50-year low,” says solar physicist David Hathaway of the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. “We’re experiencing a deep minimum of the solar cycle.”

see caption

Above: A histogram showing the blankest years of the last half-century. The vertical axis is a count of spotless days in each year. The bar for 2008, which was updated on Sept. 27th, is still growing. [Larger images: 50 years, 100 years] Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 160 Comments »

Categories : Science, solar

BS Alert: Polar bear hearing affected to due global warming?

30 09 2008

From the BBC, a video report so absurd, you wonder if it is an April fools joke. The premise? Noise from excessive ice calving  and cracking due to “climate change” would affect the bear’s hearing. I wonder what agency was gullible enough to provide a grant for this load of rubbish? Like polar bears have never heard ice floes cracking and calving before? Give me a break. Plus, the polar bear they are using for a test subject isn’t in it’s natural environment, it’s at a zoo and who’s to say this bear establishes a credible baseline hearing test? This is just unbelievable stupidity in the guise of bad science. What next? Hearing aids for polar bears? A hat tip to Tony B in the UK for alerting me to this story. – Anthony

How to test a bear’s hearing


Click preview image above for link to video story
Scientists in California are testing the hearing of polar bears to try to find out whether the noises associated with melting Arctic ice could affect their ability to survive.

The BBC’s Peter Bowes goes to SeaWorld in San Diego to meet Charly, a 12-year-old polar bear taking part in the experiment – and his trainer Mike Price.


Comments : 55 Comments »

Categories : Uncategorized

Quote of the week

30 09 2008

This sums the banking issue well.

“Is anyone even paying attention to these Wing Nut AGW people? With 1/2 of America worried about having to eat cat food during their retirement, global warming is the last thing on their mind.”

From “Jeff” in comments


Comments : 61 Comments »

Categories : Uncategorized

NBC film crew stranded in Arctic on icebreaker 3 weeks

30 09 2008

It never ceases to amaze me how people think when it comes to the Arctic. Somehow there is this pervasive belief that “if we just go there and document it, we’ll be able to demonstrate how climate change is affecting the arctic”.  This is the second team with such dubious aspirations this year, the first being failed kayaker Lewis Gordon Pugh who spun his dismal and embarrassing failure into an “accomplishment”, and then would not even take valid questions about his false claim of being the person who “kayaked furthest north”.

I have no sympathy for these people. Nature is teaching them hard lessons, let us hope they retain the material. – Anthony

STUCK IN THE ARCTIC FOR THREE WEEKS…AND COUNTING

Posted: Friday, September 26, 2008 8:20 AM by Jen Brown

From Peter Alexander, TODAY correspondent

So, here we are. In the Arctic. Day 23. Good times!

Producer Paul Manson and I, along with cameraman Callan Griffiths and soundman Ben Adam, were sent here on assignment to report on climate change and the Arctic for an upcoming broadcast. The primary news peg — and one reason for our visit — is that for only the second time in recorded history the Northwest Passage is ice free, effectively clearing this shortcut between Europe and Asia.

Our intention was to stay on board for 10 days, shooting video and interviews.  Mother Nature, apparently, had other plans. Inclement weather, along with an emergency search and rescue mission, has spoiled all five of our attempts to leave the ship.  Getting stuck in the Arctic is not uncommon; getting stuck five times is like punishment.

Joining the team
We left NYC Sept. 3, joining up with a team of scientists from ArcticNet on board the Canadian Coast Guard icebreaker, Amundsen. (In Canada, the Coast Guard is civilian, not military. It is part of the country’s Department of Oceans and Fisheries.) This particular Coast Guard ship has been dedicated to scientific research and outfitted with all the necessary tools. In a unique partnership, the scientists work side-by-side with the Coast Guard crew. For example, the scientists are testing water samples and sediment samples (from the ocean floor) as well as mapping uncharted territories in this remote part of the world. There are 40 scientists, 40 Coast Guard members and the four of us. By now we’re part of the team, learning to help on deck, in the lab and at dinner.

We boarded the Amundsen Thursday, Sept. 4, in Resolute Bay, a small Inuit village, along the Northwest Passage. The plan was to fly off by helicopter at the northern most civilian community in North America, Grise Fjord, and then begin our long journey home. Freezing rain and harsh weather kept our chopper grounded both Monday and Tuesday. The ship kept going and our chance to get off passed. We continued North with the expedition along the coasts of the Canadian Arctic and Greenland, coming within 900 miles of the North Pole.

Over the next couple weeks, we would make three more attempts to fly to land. Each one failed due to weather. Unbelievably, on Thursday our absolute best chance to get off the ship failed, too. The ship was diverted back north to assist a search and rescue mission, something the crew says has only happened once or twice in the last couple years.  From the beginning, we were warned that the ships primary mission was science. The cost of operating this icebreaker and moving the expedition forward is $50,000 a day. While we’ve been welcomed guests on board, we knew the ship wouldn’t be stopping for us. Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 52 Comments »

Categories : Uncategorized

Comments thread – AIRS Team satellite CO2 paper published

29 09 2008
AIRS has higher resolution tracking of global CO2

AIRS has higher resolution tracking of global CO2 - click for image

I’m going to make a formal post on this later, but I wanted to bring it up for discussion now since many people have been waiting for this paper to be published. For my previous perspectives and replies from authors, see this post here:

An encouraging response on satellite CO2 measurement from the AIRS Team

Hat tip to F Rasmin who writes with a link to the new paper:

Hello Anthony. Is this the awaited paper from the AIRS TEAM? ‘Satellite remote sounding of mid-tropospheric CO2′, published 9 September 2008 at:

http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/gl0817/2008GL035022/

REPLY: Yes it is. This was on my list of things to check this week, thanks for the tip! I’ll write it up sas soon as I can read it. In the meantime, feel free to post more comments on it in this thread.


Comments : 48 Comments »

Categories : Science, climate_change

Small sunspecks emerging on both solar hemispheres

29 09 2008

In comments, Jonn-X wondered:

Dead pixels or new sunspecks (pore-ettes) ?

At first I was pretty sure I was looking at nothing, then I saw the official NOAA bulletin

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/forecast.html

and the usual phrase, “The visible disk was spotless,” was omitted – typical practice when there’s something there, but too small to be “officially noticed.”

Anybody else see anything?

I do. I know where the dead pixels are, and have labeled them below in the SOHO MDI image. Note that there are two very small sunspecks, possibly soon to be sunspots, emerging on both sides of the equator.


Click for a full sized image

For those that don’t know. The SOHO spacecraft sensor does have some stuck pixels, and these can sometimes be cured in a “bake off” where they heat up the sensor for a few hours.

Our resident official solar physicist, Dr. Leif Svalgarrd will confirm or refute my suspicions on the categorizations of SC23 and SC24 I’m sure. For comparisons, you can also see the SOHO magnetogram.

I’ve included it also below:

UPDATE: The specks are fading, so far no observation agency has assigned a region or counted them that I know of, see the updated SOHO MDI. Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 112 Comments »

Categories : Science, solar

Will September be the month the sun truly transitions to Cycle 24?

28 09 2008

Solar cycle 23 as seen from SOHO - click for larger image

Below is a note forwarded to me by John Sumption from Jan Janssens. For those who do not know him, Jan runs a very comphrehensive solar tracking website here.

Jan included the caveat:

This topic’s sure to start another heated discussion on the solar blogs

So I’m happy to oblige by posting it here. Jansen makes some good points about the possible first month that cylce 24 spots exceed cycle 23 spots. But when you are in a deep minimum like this one, it is hard to pinpoint the transition, because next month may bring the reverse condition. He writes:

Prior to August 2008, only 3 SC24-sunspot groups appeared. This was in January, April and May. During these 3 months, SC23-activity was higher than SC24-activity. Based on the NOAA-numbering, there were respectively (SC23 to SC24) 2 to 1, 2 to 1, and 4 to 1 sunspotgroups visible.

In August, there were no sunspotgroups numbered by NOAA. However, on 21-22 August “something” was visible well enough to be seen by several observers and to prompt the SIDC to give a (preliminary) non-zero sunspotnumber for those days. Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 114 Comments »

Categories : Science, solar

Convenience stores under attack by global warming zealots

28 09 2008

Now I’ve heard everything. Talk about your “Kyoto protocol”. The original source of this silliness comes from the city of Kyoto. In June, in a bid to reduce greenhouse gases and perhaps become a nationally designated “model environmental city,” the municipal government indicated it would request convenience stores to “voluntarily refrain” from staying open all night.

No Slushee for you!

You can read the complete story here in Japan Today. The worst part about this is the complete lack of understanding about where the major energy use is. Closing the store may result in some energy savings from lighting, but the main power use, refrigeration systems, and that Slushee machine, will still operate.

No more midnight Slushee! Maybe the real reason is the “exploitation of the polar bear” on the cup.

Here is more, a response from the Japan Franchise Association

Convenience stores defend 24-hour operations

September 27th, 2008 by Jame, Japanprobe.com

Facing attack from critics that want convenience stores to shut down at night as a measure to prevent global warming, the Japan Franchise Association has responded by stating that convenience stores play a crucial role as safe havens for lost children and victims of crime: Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 47 Comments »

Categories : climate_change, ridiculae

Former director of International Arctic Research Center says: “Global warming has paused”

27 09 2008

We still need to study nature’s contribution to trend

Syun-Ichi Akasofu, Community Perspective

Published Saturday, September 27, 2008, Fairbanks AK News-Miner


Photo by Anthony – not part of original article

Recent studies by the Hadley Climate Research Center (UK), the Japan Meteorological Agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the University of East Anglia (UK) and the University of Alabama Huntsville show clearly that the rising trend of global average temperature stopped in 2000-2001. Further, NASA data shows that warming in the southern hemisphere has stopped, and that ocean temperatures also have stopped rising.

The global average temperature had been rising until about 2000-2001. The International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) and many scientists hypothesize rising temperatures were mostly caused by the greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide (CO2), and they predicted further temperature increases after 2000. It was natural to assume that CO2 was responsible for the rise, because CO2 molecules in the atmosphere tend to reflect back the infrared radiation to the ground, preventing cooling (the greenhouse effect) and also because CO2 concentrations have been rapidly increasing since 1946. But, this hypothesis on the cause of global warming is just one of several.

Unfortunately, many scientists appear to forget that weather and climate also are controlled by nature, as we witness weather changes every day and climate changes in longer terms. During the last several years, I have suggested that it is important to identify the natural effects and subtract them from the temperature changes. Only then can we be sure of the man-made contributions. This suggestion brought me the dubious honor of being designated “Alaska’s most famous climate change skeptic.” Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 204 Comments »

Categories : Science, climate_change

NASA JPL on Heatwaves: “it’s the asphalt, not the atmosphere”

26 09 2008

UPDATE: Former California State climatologist Jim Goodridge presents some data that suggests that ocean temperature may be an equal or greater driving force behind Los Angeles Temperature increases, see graph below.


Source: NASA JPL

UPDATE: Sea surface temperature anomaly versus Los Angeles air temperature:


Source: Former California State climatologist Jim Goodridge – click for larger image

Perhaps the adjuster should adjust the adjustments a bit. This press release from NASA Jet Propulsion Lab says that most of the increase in temperature has to do with ubanization:

[NASA's JPL Bill] Patzert says global warming due to increasing greenhouse gases is responsible for some of the overall heating observed in Los Angeles and the rest of California. Most of the increase in heat days and length of heat waves, however, is due to a phenomenon called the “urban heat island effect.”

Heat island-induced heat waves are a growing concern for urban and suburban dwellers worldwide. According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, studies around the world have shown that this effect makes urban areas from 2 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit (1 to 6 degrees Celsius) warmer than their surrounding rural areas.

Patzert says this effect is steadily warming Southern California, though more modestly than some larger urban areas around the world. “Dramatic urbanization has resulted in an extreme makeover for Southern California, with more homes, lawns, shopping centers, traffic, freeways and agriculture, all absorbing and retaining solar radiation, making our megalopolis warmer,” Patzert said.

Then there’s station siting issues, like this station on a rooftop of a fire station in Santa, Ana, CA. Note the air conditioner units all around. Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 91 Comments »

Categories : climate_change, weather_stations

Kum Ba Yah

26 09 2008

by John Goetz

I just ran across the following news article from Pitchfork Media:

Jarvis, Feist Sail to Arctic to Investigate Global Warming

Laurie Anderson, Robyn Hitchcock, Martha Wainwright, and Ryuichi Sakamoto too!

Feist, Jarvis Cocker, and a bunch of other artists board a ship to the Arctic to investigate climate change. It sounds like a strange reality show, but it’s actually straight-up reality.

Yesterday (September 25), a crew of scientists, artists, engineers, and journalists boarded a science research vessel in Kangerlussuaq, Greenland bound for Disko Bay. Soon, they’ll travel across the front of the Jakobshavn Glacier, “one of Greenland’s largest glaciers moving at a faster rate than ever before, losing 20 million tons of ice every day,” according to the description from expedition organizers Cape Farewell.

The point of the trip, in addition to scientific research, is “to inspire the creative team to respond to climate change both in the Arctic and on their return.” Apparently, at the airport, “Feist checked her guitar (Robyn Hitchcock requested that everybody who has one bring it for a little Arctic jam).”

In addition to Feist and Jarvis Cocker, the list of musicians on board includes Robyn Hitchcock, Martha Wainwright, Ryuichi Sakamoto, KT Tunstall, Laurie Anderson, and…Vanessa Carlton. How fitting!

I admit I am not hip. I have never heard of these artists. But it appears this trip includes a veritable who’s who of today’s influential artists. Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 58 Comments »

Categories : climate_change, politics, ridiculae

The Day The Earth Cooled

26 09 2008

This is a familar set of issues in one article. – Anthony

By INVESTOR’S BUSINESS DAILY | Posted Thursday, September 25, 2008 4:20 PM PT

Environment: The solar wind is slowing, but Al Gore is still spewing hot air. The Oscar winner is promoting civil disobedience to stop energy and economic growth as the first U.S. emissions cap-and-trade program begins.

Speaking before Bill Clinton’s Global Initiative, junk science advocate Gore called on young people to take the law into their own hands because the climate, he claims, is a-changin’. He told the gathering in New York City that “the world has lost ground to the climate crisis” and the time for action is now.

“If you’re a young person looking at the future of this planet and looking at what is being done right now, and not done, I believe we have reached the stage where it is time for civil disobedience to prevent the construction of new coal plants that do not have carbon capture and sequestration,” Gore said to loud applause.

His comments come two weeks after a British jury acquitted six Greenpeace activists accused of causing property damage at a power plant. The jury felt the “protest” was acceptable because the “protesters” feared the plant would contribute to global warming. Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 116 Comments »

Categories : Uncategorized

Wind power

25 09 2008

I was in a conversation today at lunch with a fellow who told me that “wind power is better than anything we’ve ever done for generating electricity”. That made me wonder, how reliable (beyond the constancy of wind issues) is it?

Whenever I drive through Techachapi or Altamont passes here in California I note that there always seems to be a fair number of these three blade windmills that are out of commission. Perhaps failure is more common than one would expect. I found a couple of examples:

And this one also, though I don’t know what the ending for it was like the one above… Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 220 Comments »

Categories : Technology, fun_stuff

NAS reports: 50 million year cooling trend

25 09 2008

Warming in a global cool period

By Peter N. Spotts| Staff Writer for The Christian Science Monitor/ September 25, 2008 edition


Graph above added by Anthony – not part of original article

With all the focus on human-triggered global warming, it may be hard to imagine that the world is riding a 50-million-year-long cooling trend.

But it is, and blame the trend on a continental-scale collision, say geophysicists Dennis Kent of Rutgers University and Giovanni Muttoni of the University of Milan in Italy.

Researchers say there is strong evidence that increases in atmospheric CO2 contributed to a warm spell 50 million years ago dubbed the Early Eocene climate optimum – the warmest period in 65 million years. But over the following 15 million years, deep sea temperatures fell by about 10.8 degrees F., reflecting a significant cooling at the surface. This cooling ultimately allowed the cycle of ice ages to emerge.

Drs. Kent and Muttoni have mined paleomagnetic and other data and suggest that atmospheric CO2 dropped because India collided with Eurasia, shutting down a productive, natural CO2 factory.

Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 118 Comments »

Categories : Science, climate_change

Global Warming causing Cannibalism

24 09 2008

by John Goetz

OK, I know the catchy headline and picture of Hannibal Lecter got you worrying a little about that neighbor of yours who is stocking up on fava beans and chianti. But the headline is misleading, as is this one posted yesterday (September 23) at cnn.com:

Polar bears resort to cannibalism as Arctic ice shrinks

By Marsha Walton, CNN

I was looking for a good, sensational read. I really thought the article would be about the many ways in which global warming was causing cannibalism amongst polar bears in the arctic. I searched for the heart-wrenching stories about how increasing temperatures forced mom to bop pops on the head when he was not looking and toss daddy-kibble to the kids to keep them from starving to death. Instead, the story began as follows:

Summer is over in the northern hemisphere, but it’s been another chilling season for researchers who study Arctic sea ice.

“It’s definitely a bad report. We did pick up little bit from last year, but this is over 30 percent below what used to be normal,” said Walt Meier, a research scientist with the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado.

This past summer, the Arctic sea ice dwindled to its second lowest level. Arctic sea ice is usually 1 to 3 meters, or as much as 9 feet thick. It grows during autumn and winter and shrinks in the spring and summer.

Scientists have monitored sea ice conditions for about 50 years with the help of satellites. Changes in the past decade have been alarming to climate researchers and oceanographers.

“It is the second lowest on record. … If anything, it is reinforcing the long-term trend. We are still losing the ice cover at a rate of 10 percent per decade now, and that is quite an increase from five years ago,” Meier said. “We are still heading toward an ice cover that is going to melt completely in the summertime in the Arctic.”

Huh? This was not at all what I expected. Where was the blood and gore?

Then I noticed something in the upper left part of the page. Those rascals at CNN got me again! Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 74 Comments »

Categories : climate_change, ridiculae

Rubber Duckie

24 09 2008

by John Goetz

Rubber Duckie, you’re the one,
You make bathtime lots of fun,
Rubber Duckie, I’m awfully fond of you;

Woo woo be doo

From the Sydney (Australia) Morning Herald:

NASA uses rubber ducks to fight global warming

September 23, 2008 – 10:27AM

Rubber ducks are the latest weapons in the fight against global warming, according to NASA.

NASA scientists have dropped 90 of the ducks into holes in the Jakobshavn glacier – Greenland’s fastest moving glacier – in a bid to understand why glaciers speed up in the summer in their march to the sea.

The toys have been labelled [sic] “science experiment” and “reward” in three languages, and carry an email address.

The ducks, if found by someone who emails NASA about their discovery, could tell scientists how melting water moves through ice, Alberto Behar of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California, said.

“It’s a beautiful place to visit. You can watch these icebergs continuously march across and fall into the ocean,” Mr Behar said.

“Right now it’s not understood what causes the glaciers themselves to surge in the summer.”

That’s where the rubber ducks come in, along with a probe about the size of a football loaded with a GPS transmitter and instruments that can tell much about the glacier’s innards.

Mr Behar said he hoped a fisherman or hunter might find a duck or the probe but so far nothing had turned up.

Perhaps the reason glaciers “speed up in the summer” is because it is warmer in the summer and ice melts faster when it is warmer and water under ice helps reduce friction, thereby improving speed?

Just guessing.


Comments : 54 Comments »

Categories : climate_change, fun_stuff, ridiculae

Adjusting Pristine Data

23 09 2008

by John Goetz

On September 15, 2008, Anthony DePalma of the New York Times wrote an article about the Mohonk Lakes USHCN weather station titled Weather History Offers Insight Into Global Warming. This article claimed, in part, that the average annual temperature has risen 2.7 degrees in 112 years at this station. What struck me about the article was the rather quaint description of the manner in which temperatures are recorded, which I have excerpted here (emphasis mine):

Mr. Huth opened the weather station, a louvered box about the size of a suitcase, and leaned in. He checked the high and low temperatures of the day on a pair of official Weather Service thermometers and then manually reset them…

If the procedure seems old-fashioned, that is just as it is intended. The temperatures that Mr. Huth recorded that day were the 41,152nd daily readings at this station, each taken exactly the same way. “Sometimes it feels like I’ve done most of them myself,” said Mr. Huth, who is one of only five people to have served as official weather observer at this station since the first reading was taken on Jan. 1, 1896.

That extremely limited number of observers greatly enhances the reliability, and therefore the value, of the data. Other weather stations have operated longer, but few match Mohonk’s consistency and reliability. “The quality of their observations is second to none on a number of counts,” said Raymond G. O’Keefe, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Albany. “They’re very precise, they keep great records and they’ve done it for a very long time.”

Mohonk’s data stands apart from that of most other cooperative weather observers in other respects as well. The station has never been moved, and the resort, along with the area immediately surrounding the box, has hardly changed over time.

Clearly the data collected at this site is of the highest quality. Five observers committed to their work. No station moves. No equipment changes according to Mr. Huth (in contrast to the NOAA MMS records). Attention to detail unparalleled elsewhere. A truly Norman Rockwell image of dedication.

After reading the article, I wondered what happened to Mr. Huth’s data, and the data collected by the four observers who preceded him. What I learned is that NOAA doesn’t quite trust the data meticulously collected by Mr. Huth and his predecessors. Neither does GISS trust the data NOAA hands it. Following is a description of what is done with the data.

Read the rest of this entry »


Comments : 104 Comments »

Categories : Science, weather_stations

Latest Cycle 24 Sunspot: here today, gone tomorrow

23 09 2008

I decided to make an animated GIF of the latest cycle 24 sunspot, dubbed number 1002, which was literally a “flash in the pan”.


Credit: SOHO/MDI

One thing that has been common so far with all cycle 24 sunspots this year is that they have been small and very short lived. This one lived just slightly more than a whole day, a mere blip in solar time, where some sunspots will survive for a whole solar rotation (27 days) or more.


Comments : 139 Comments »

Categories : Science, solar

« Previous Entries