Emulation, ±4 W/m² Long Wave Cloud Forcing Error, and Meaning

Guest post by Pat Frank My September 7 post describing the recent paper published in Frontiers in Earth Science on GCM physical error analysis attracted a lot of attention, consisting of both support and criticism. Among other things, the paper showed that the air temperature projections of advanced GCMs are just linear extrapolations of fractional…

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Temperature and TOA Forcing

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I’ve been thinking about temperature and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) forcing. TOA forcing is the imbalance between the TOA upwelling and downwelling radiation. The CERES satellite dataset contains observations of the TOA radiation imbalance on a gridcell-by-gridcell basis. It is calculated as the downwelling solar radiation for that month by gridcell, minus…