New paper: climate models short on 'physics required for realistic simulation of the Earth system'

I’m pleased to have had a chance to to review this new paper just published in the Journal of Climate: An Evaluation of Decadal Probability Forecasts from State-of-the-Art Climate Models Suckling, Emma B., Leonard A. Smith, 2013: An Evaluation of Decadal Probability Forecasts from State-of-the-Art Climate Models*. J. Climate, 26, 9334–9347. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00485.1 The lead…

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Hindcasting climate shifts in the Pacific

From the Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (GEOMAR) The potential for successful climate predictions Hindcast experiments capture long-term climate fluctuations Will there be rather warm or cold winters in Germany in the coming years? We may have a long way to go before reliable forecasts of this kind can be achieved. However, marine scientists,…

Paper suggests a decrease of tropical cyclones ahead

More inconvenient results for Al Gore and the mouthpiece of “Forecast the Facts” Brad Johnson who like to claim that tropical storms will increase due to global warming. A paper published last week in the Journal of Climate projects a 3-15% decrease of tropical cyclones throughout the 21st century, which seems to be inline with…

Some sense about sensitivity

Excerpts from The Register, coverage of the Nic Lewis paper. This graph below from Bishop Hill shows that it isn’t just one paper, but several now that show lower climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2. =============================================================== More and more likely that double CO2 means <2°C: New study Yes, it warms the planet – just…

Gergis et al hockey stick paper withdrawn – finally

Between this withdrawal and the Esper et al paper showing the MWP and RWP warmer than today, Mike Mann must be having a really, really, bad day. Even SuperMandia in tights can’t help. Thanks to Richard Tol (and Marc Morano) for this tip: Readers may recall Steve McIntyre’s evisceration of Gergis et al. Steve’s question…

The Very Model Of A Modern Major Problem

Reposted from The GWPF by Dr. David Whitehouse There has been some discussion about a paper in Nature Climate Change by Gleckler et al that says they detect “a positive identification (at the 1% level) of an anthropogenic fingerprint in the observed upper-ocean temperature changes, thereby substantially strengthening existing detection and attribution evidence.” What they’ve done…

Revkin on the Gergis et al 'on hold' affair

I promised Andrew Revkin yesterday that I’d give his post on Gergis et all some attention, because he’s done a good job of summarizing it all, plus getting some other angles, such as that of Retractionwatch. I was especially pleased to note that he reports that the blogosphere is becoming increasingly important as a tool…