Climate models – worse than we thought

Observations Now Inconsistent with Climate Model Predictions for 25 (going on 35) Years By Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger and Patrick J. Michaels Question: How long will the fantasy that climate models are reliable indicators of the earth’s climate evolution persist in face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary? Answer: Probably for as long as there…

Advertisements

Statistical Analyses of Surface Temperatures in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

Guest essay by Douglas J. Keenan Temperatures on Earth’s surface—i.e. where people live—are widely believed to provide evidence for global warming.  Demonstrating that those temperatures actually provide evidence, though, requires doing statistical analysis. All such statistical analyses of the temperatures that have been done so far are fatally flawed.  Astoundingly, those flaws are effectively acknowledged…

The WUWT Hot Sheet for Monday October 7th, 2013

AR5 heralds the beginning of the end It’s the beginning of the end. Watch the Giant with Feet of Clay crumble. A train wreck in slow motion. There’s more sense being said about AR5 than would have been imaginable eighteen months ago when drafts were available. In fact some of the media coverage (e.g. Newsnight)…

You don't want to see sausage or climate policy being made

Tom Nelson points this out – IPCC sausage-making details: Saudi Arabia cautioned against “giving policy makers the message that CO2 drives global warming” Summary of the Twelfth Session of the IPCC WGI and IPCC-36, 23-26 September 2013, Stockholm, Sweden Saudi Arabia proposed clarifying that evidence of future climate change is based on models and simulations…

Confidence tricks between IPCC AR4 and AR5

Patrick Carlberg writes: I can’t assess the validity of the values from the climate models presented in AR5 (mostly due to lack of time). But I can tell you there are tricks used in the way they interpret the statistical inference. One of the key points in the new IPCC report is that the CO2…

To the IPCC: Forget about "30 years"

IPCC has never waited for 30-year trends, and they were right. Guest essay by Barry Brill Under pressure at a media conference following release of its Summary for Policymakers, AR5 WG1 Co-Chair Thomas Stocker is reported to have said that “climate trends should not be considered for periods less than 30 years”. Some have seen…