The WUWT Hot Sheet for Monday Sept 23rd, 2013

WUWT_hot_sheet5

UN panel opens Stockholm meet on global warming

“I’m looking forward to working with you in the next four days to deliberate and approve (this report) line by line,” [Pachauri] said.

More at GlobalPost

From the IPCC press release:

“Our assessment draws on millions of measurements which permit an unprecedented and unbiased view of the state of the Earth System . Millions of billions of bytes of numerical data form the foundation for estimates of possible futures of our climate. We have produced a Summary for Policymakers that presents the findings in the clearest possible manner, a document with no comp romises to scientific accuracy. ” said Thomas Stocker, the other Co-Chair of Working Group I.”

IPCC press release – pr_130923_opening_ceremony.pdf

(FYI In the interest of public discourse and scrutiny, I will be posting the full widely “leaked” draft SPM later today, so that there can be comparisons worldwide of what the politicians have morphed it to – Anthony)

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The great dilemma for climate science

Andrew Montford writes at Bishop Hill:

I have an article up at the Spectator’s Coffee House blog on that awful dilemma for the IPCC:

It will not be an easy task. However the IPCC chooses to deal with the problem the repercussions are unpleasant. They might try to explain away the warming hiatus in some way: the in-vogue explanation is that the heat that should have been in the atmosphere has escaped, undetected, to the deep oceans.

Evidence to support this idea is, however, scant at best, and going down this route is going to involve the IPCC admitting that there is much about the climate system that is not yet understood. This will be a hard act to carry off while simultaneously claiming that they are certain that mankind caused most of the recent warming.

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Delusions of ….something?

Dr. Kerry Emanuel seems to think his job is super important

You could, however, sum its findings up in just four words: “the world is defrosting”. This is how Prof Neville Nicholls of Monash University, Australia, put it. Human impacts, according to a leaked draft of the report, are changing the planet in ways “unprecedented in hundreds of thousands of years”.

…“The decisions we make in the next decade or so are decisions that will determine the fate of the planet for thousands of years,” says Prof Kerry Emanuel of MIT in Boston.

…The scenario of acidified, oxygen-starved oceans teeming with jellyfish and almost nothing else is edging from science fiction to climate science fact.

Climate panel set to reiterate bleakest of messages – Environmental News | The Irish Times – Mon, Sep 23, 2013

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I wonder what the Germans will say about the IPCC report?

Germany’s Green Party Takes A Beating In National Elections – Climate, Fear No Longer Important Issues

With climate change losing importance in Germany as an issue and the Energiewende (transition to renewable energy) turning into a chaos that threatens the country’s economic stability, the Greens, who were polling near 16% earlier in the year, have since lost almost half of their voter base.

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Mike Mann’s “Curry derangement syndrome” Tweet

mann-curry-tweet

Well, at least he didn’t throw in “#Kochtopus

This is what Dr. Mann is ranting about:

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/policy/climate-consensus-skewing-science/story-e6frg6xf-1226724080490

Dr. Curry says pretty much what we all think of Dr. Mann:

curry-derangement-tweet

We’ll check back on the credibility issue after IPCC AR5 SPM has been released, in the meantime, I’m sure Mike will keep us entertained.

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Pure BS from Oxford Professor Myles Allen:

…This point was backed by Professor Myles Allen at Oxford University. “We have examined the forecasts made by climate scientists over the past three decades and they have been absolutely spot on in terms of predicting subsequent levels of global warming,” he said. “Our climate models are robust and working well.”

[Professor Jonathan Bamber of Bristol University] “One recent study found a way to assess sea ice cover in the Arctic over the past 1,600 years. At no point in that time were levels found to be as low as they are today. The current drop is probably the handiwork of human beings.”

Climate change: IPCC cites global temperature rise over last century | Environment | The Observer

h/t to Tom Nelson

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Maslowski “ice free Arctic in 2013”, falsified:

Sea Ice News Volume 4 Number 6: Arctic sea ice has most definitely turned the corner – Maslowski is falsified

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Jimmy Haigh.

Looks like total and complete desperation from Climate Central. Last throw if the dice kind of stuff. Last gasp saloon. All or nothing at all. Hitler’s bunker.

Ian W

…This point was backed by Professor Myles Allen at Oxford University. “We have examined the forecasts made by climate scientists over the past three decades and they have been absolutely spot on in terms of predicting subsequent levels of global warming,” he said. “Our climate models are robust and working well.”
=======
“A propaganda technique…. ……. The use of a lie so “colossal” that no one would believe that someone “could have the impudence to distort the truth so infamously.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Lie

oldseadog

Home delivery of jumbo popcorn order with case of bottles of Irn Bru expected in next half hour.
How long will it last before a repeat order is required?

Latitude

“the world is defrosting”.
===
The default setting for this planet is colder…..a lot colder

Theo Goodwin

‘ “Our assessment draws on millions of measurements which permit an unprecedented and unbiased view of the state of the Earth System . Millions of billions of bytes of numerical data form the foundation for estimates of possible futures of our climate.’
Back in the Sixties, we would have asked what this guy was smoking. Today, we simply point out that the statement is “downright childish.” Nothing more can be said. I do give him credit for aping Sagan, but why did he not go to trillions – to be true to Sagan, I guess. He is not in touch with reality. The common office secretary knows that he/she is dealing with billions of bytes daily. The ordinary gamer views billions of bytes as not ready for prime time.

Kaboom

Fantastic job hindcasting arctic sea ice when there is absolutely no data for most of that 1600 year period. You can basically just throw out any number you want and only have to curve-fit the last forty years.

Theo Goodwin

‘Human impacts, according to a leaked draft of the report, are changing the planet in ways “unprecedented in hundreds of thousands of years”.’
Notice how they deal in tautologies that sound ominous but are simple definitional truths stating nothing of importance. Of course human impacts are unprecedented in hundreds of thousands of years. Humans have had an impact for maybe 70 years. Dimwit.

Theo Goodwin

Jimmy Haigh. says:
September 23, 2013 at 7:38 am
Spot on. They will be throwing “Hail Marys” the whole game.

Theo Goodwin

Let’s see, Michael Mann vs. Judith Curry. We have the explosive, vitriolic, and hostile propagandist for imminent doom going against the cool, rational, and gentle scientist. I just cannot wait to discover who supports Mann in this debate.

Scarface

@Jimmy Haigh
This will turn into a very nasty last fight. The ‘war on skeptics’ has now been declared. That’s all they have left, because the facts have proved them wrong and deep down they know it’s lost. But the money will buy them more time than that

Alan Robertson

…unprecedented and unbiased view of the state of the Earth System
said Thomas Stocker, the other Co-Chair of Working Group I.
———————————–
(FYI In the interest of public discourse and scrutiny, I will be posting the full widely “leaked” draft SPM later today, so that there can be comparisons worldwide of what the politicians have morphed it to – A.W.)
______________________
That's like a delicious item on a menu posted in the window of a restaurant in the theater district… the opera's over and we're hungry and the line is getting shorter.

Alan Robertson

mods: Would it be possible to change the ‘?’ to ‘/’ in preceding post?

Alan Robertson

oops- never mind- still got it wrong- ‘>’
pimf

Scarface

oops,
…than one might think it will last. It will be years if not another decade.

The Ghost Of Big Jim Cooley

Could the more-knowledgable among you please take a look at this BBC web page graph and tell me if it’s true. I try to follow the climate debate, but this graph is a new one to me:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24204323
Thanks for your help.

dp

I’m surprised that Mann would introduce integrity and credibility into the conversation. Having none of his own I presume he’s learned of it through 3rd parties or possibly seen it on TV and so I’d need to see his cites regards his sources. This is fully consistent with what I’ve come to expect from Penn State, an institution that seems prepared to stand behind any form of bad behavior from its staff.

Liberal Skeptic

The Ghost Of Big Jim Cooley :
It looks like they’ve put the instrument temperature record onto the end of a smoothed trend line which is probably based on proxy measurements which inherently lack the resolution to pick up temperature changes we’ve seen recently.
In other words, it may be accurate at showing what it can, but it doesn’t mean it’s an accurate representation of the situation.
Pure propaganda.
I’m losing patience with these sorts of tricks now.

Alan Robertson

The Ghost Of Big Jim Cooley says:
September 23, 2013 at 8:43 am
Could the more-knowledgable among you please take a look at this BBC web page graph and tell me if it’s true. I try to follow the climate debate, but this graph is a new one to me:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24204323
Thanks for your help.
________________________________
Think “hockey stick”.

TomRude

From Reuters:
“One of the hardest issues for the IPCC may be accounting for why temperatures have not risen much this century. “Fifteen-year-long hiatus periods are common,” in historical climate records, an accompanying 127-page technical summary says.
A combination of natural variations, including a cyclical dip in energy emitted by the sun, and factors such as volcanic eruptions – which send ash into the atmosphere and help block sunlight – have caused the hiatus, it says, predicting a resumption of warming in coming years.”
Yet we were told over and over that the sun had no influence on warming. So how could the sun have now an influence on cooling? Through what newly discovered process? /sarc

The Ghost Of Big Jim Cooley

Alan, the Hockey Stick was only 1,500 years. I wasn’t aware of this Marcott paper.

Alan Robertson

JC,
The same idea applies- take Liberal Skeptic’s statement, visualize Mann’s or any or all of the hockey sticks and graft them onto the end of a long time line and compress it to the point of no resolution- et voila…

Bill

Big Jim,
The authors themselves said the 20th century part of the reconstruction “was not robust”.
This was not in his thesis so some speculate that perhaps a reviewer suggested they
add that as part of getting it published? This paper has been debunked (parts of it) several times
but I do not have the link handy. Both on WUWT and possible by Steve McIntyre?

Lance Wallace

The Ghost Of Big Jim Cooley says:
September 23, 2013 at 8:43 am
That’s the Marcott graph which the author himself said was not correct (not “robust”) in answer to critics (S McIntyre, I think), because his method does not allow periods as short as 50 years to be discerned.

Eliza

Ghost Jim Cooley
The Graph
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24204323 is unprecendented for the BBC to show on their news site. Shows no significant warming since 1850? I think they have decided that the AGW is a scam and are doing their best to get out of it. Good on them! The tide is REALLY TURNING now. I doubt that the IPPC will last more than a year or two. I believe that only the real “climate scientists” (who actually knew that it was fraud) fraudsters need to be prosecuted. People like Gore, Cook etc are really just “climate” ignorant bystanders who properly never understood climate etc and should not be pursued. Unfortunately for the fraudsters MSM will now turn against them for one reason only: There is no a fascinating story to be sold to the public about the whole scam since Lord Stern started this whole thing in the 70’s.

Kaboom

With Pachauri announcing that he is not running again for Chairman in 2015, the apparatchik trough dwellers are now battling on two fronts: against the facts and against each other for the top job. Can’t wait for shark week with all that blood in the water.

Eliza

Should read: There is now a fascinating story to be sold to the public about the whole scam since Lord Stern started this whole thing in the 70′s.

performixbiz

“Evidence to support this idea is, however, scant at best, and going down this route is going to involve the IPCC admitting that there is much about the climate system that is not yet understood.”
The IPCC has repeatedly admitted that. In each report they boast about how much more has been learned about each topic since the previous report. Everyone ignores that they’re also saying that they didn’t know much when they produced the previous authoritative report.

davidmhoffer

The Ghost Of Big Jim Cooley says:
September 23, 2013 at 8:43 am
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The Marcott paper has been so completely debunked it is sad. The published graphs don’t even match the ones in the thesis itself. It gets worse from there. Search for “Marcott” in the WUWT search box, there were multiple threads shredding the credibility of this paper.

Neil Jordan

Re The Ghost Of Big Jim Cooley says: September 23, 2013 at 9:00 am
Re Alan Robertson says: September 23, 2013 at 8:54 am
The Ghost Of Big Jim Cooley says:
September 23, 2013 at 8:43 am
That’s the Marcott variant of the Hockey Stick, from:
http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2013/03/were-screwed-11-000-years-worth-of-climate-data-prove-it/273870/
and reviewed by WUWT here:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/04/01/the-marcott-gong-show-before-in-the-unquestioning-press-and-after-the-blogosphere-review-as-told-by-ross-mckitrick/
For a thorough background, use the WUWT search box for “Marcott” and “Shakun”.

Eliza

The graphs shown on this current BBC news page
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24173504 show NO significant warming since 1880 (not 1850 as I posted before) that’s for land, ocean, or both. If someone can see any type of trend please advise! What is surprising is that mainstream BBC News has decided to show it.

Robert of Ottawa

From the IPCC press release: ““Our assessment draws on millions of measurements which permit an unprecedented and unbiased view of the state of the Earth System…
which they do not understand, no one does at present.

Julian In Wales

Evidence to support this idea is, however, scant at best, and going down this route is going to “involve the IPCC admitting that there is much about the climate system that is not yet understood. This will be a hard act to carry off while simultaneously claiming that they are certain that mankind caused most of the recent warming.”
Where is warms up some deep water at the rate of a few hundreths of a degree a year……and will be gradually dispersed in the surrounding waters and become even harder to find and measure…… until it is completely unnoticeable or measurable
This new theory should be embraced.

Theo Goodwin

Regarding the Bishop’s article, may I explain that empirical research must replace the “radiation-only” theory of warming; that is, it must if Trenberth’s idea of heat sequestered in the deep oceans makes sense. Whether or not there is evidence to support Trenberth’s idea, the idea itself violates the fundamental assumption of all Alarmists, namely, that climate science is correct to use a “radiation-only” theory of warming. If the oceans can sequester significant amounts of heat that would otherwise have warmed Earth and prevented “the pause,” the next questions are “how much” and “how long?: Those are empirical questions that must be investigated in the deep oceans and independently of Earth’s radiation balance. Specifically, Trenberth must find mechanisms in the oceans that are characteristic of the oceans but not caused by changes in temperature or radiation at the ocean’s surface. Otherwise, Trenberth would be arguing that radiation or heat forces its way into the deep oceans and does so as a linear function of what impinges the surface. However, if mechanisms in the oceans can sequester heat for decades or centuries then the “radiation-only” account is not just deeply flawed but false. Research must turn to empirical work on Trenberth’s ocean mechanisms and the plethora of empirical phenomena that together determine Earth’s temperature. That work could be relatively complete in a century. Computer models will be helpful in this research but unnecessary.

KNR

‘, a document with no comp romises to scientific accuracy’
you have to see if that is exact copy its both hilarious to make such a basic mistake and quite poignant given their claim of ‘accuracy’

Louis Hooffstetter

The Ghost Of Big Jim Cooley says:
September 23, 2013 at 8:43 am
Shaun Marcott is/was a grad student who got duped by his ‘advisors’ (members of the ‘Real Climate’ hockey team) into publishing a Climastrology paper so bad Steve McIntyre blew it out of the water before the ink was dry. Marcott was ultimately forced to retract the main assertion of the paper (that it validated Michael Mann’s hockey stick), and only herculean efforts of ‘the Team’ prevented the paper from being retracted. The wonky data splicing and bizarre statistical analysis (that produce yet another hockey stick temperature reconstruction from garbage) was so suspiciously reminiscent of Michael Mann’s work, there’s been speculation that Mann ‘assisted’ with this paper. You can read all about it here:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/?s=Marcott
If the IPCC is rolling out the Marcott graph in preparation for AR5, it indicates ‘they got nuthin’.

oldseadog

Just saw Andrew Montford on the BBC News – nice one.
He is on again on the Ten O’Clock News (unless the piece is pulled) – try to watch it.

CRS, DrPH

Wise words from Dr. Curry:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/policy/climate-consensus-skewing-science/story-e6frg6xf-1226724080490

“A strongly held prior belief can skew the total evidence that is available subsequently in a direction that is favourable to itself,” Professor Curry said. “The consensus-building process has been found to generally act in the direction of understating the uncertainty associated with a given outcome.”

Greg Goodman

KNR, I was going to point that out too.
I’m sure they would like to add they are making no compromises to truth and integrity either. LOL

DirkH

Millions of billions of carefully adjusted measurements.

Brian H

Stolen comment: “Global Warming is what the Earth does between Ice Ages.”

Greg Goodman

…This point was backed by Professor Myles Allen at Oxford University. “We have examined the forecasts made by climate scientists over the past three decades and they have been absolutely spot on in terms of predicting subsequent levels of global warming,” he said. “Our climate models are robust and working well.”
Hey, looks like they really know that game is up.
This may all come apart a lot quicker than I thought.

Mario

The BBC just did a piece on the upcoming IPCC report. It was quite well balanced with a nice bit of input from Bishop Hill.

‘virtually certain’, ‘very likely’, ‘likely’ etcetera and the very careful definitions that are attached to them, are an excellent way of communicating the uncertainties.’ I’m “virtually certain” you’re “very likely” a fool but you are entitled to the remaining uncertainty to assuage your ego.

michael hart

The Ghost Of Big Jim Cooley says:
September 23, 2013 at 8:43 am
Could the more-knowledgable among you please take a look at this BBC web page graph and tell me if it’s true. I try to follow the climate debate, but this graph is a new one to me:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24204323
Thanks for your help.

JC, the Marcott Hockey-Stick has been commented on extensively at Climate Audit:
http://climateaudit.org/2013/03/13/marcott-mystery-1/
That is, I think, the first of over half a dozen posts covering this attempt at a hockey stick. I doubt if Shukman, Harrabin, or McGrath, at the BBC has even read, much less attempted to understand, any of them.
My one line summary:
You wouldn’t buy a second hand car that was made from two insurance-write offs welded into one vehicle, and nor should you buy ‘scientific data’ that has been treated the same way.

Me as a Stockholmer happened to attend ANOTHER seminar this day, held in the same building. as by the IPCC thing but wasn’t let in (wasn’t too interested, like being an atheist going to a religious ceremony). They had two lines, for “delegates” and one for pre-registered “media” (nothing for concerned public). Managed to grab a copy of their folder, containing nothing about their proceedings – but eg a PR sheet about the new ABBA museum: Hear:
I don’t wanna talk
About things we’ve gone through
Though it’s hurting me
Now it’s history
I’ve played all my cards
And that’s what you’ve done too
Nothing more to say
No more ace to play
The winner takes it all
The loser’s standing small
The “loser” is the IPCC as far as I know. Nothing more to say. No more ace to play. The winner takes it all. The loser’s standing small.
–Ahrvid

Greg Goodman

the Marcott Hockey-Stick has been commented on extensively at Climate Audit:
http://climateaudit.org/2013/03/13/marcott-mystery-1/
also known as the Marcott-Shakun-Mix method. 😉 No, really. I don’t see why Marcott is the only author to get the “credit”.

NZ Willy

Eliza says about BBC graphs: “http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-24173504 show NO significant warming since 1880 … If someone can see any type of trend please advise!”
That is a “trend” graph, that is, a first-derivative graph. Any points above y=0 shows a positive trend. It’s quite a good graph, but not what the public is used to.

‘Millions of billions of bytes of numerical data”
That would make it at least 2 petabytes. I find that very hard to believe.

If I can get this to work (I’m not too comfortable with Flickr yet) some pics from the IPCC meeting in Stockholm. It so happened that I by pure coincidence was going to ANOTHER meeting in the same building, The yearly meeting of the semi-government organization Vetenskap & Allmänhet (Science & Public) and I’ve been attending their meetings for years. They are reasonably interesting, I met some nice old friends there and they treat you with some light food and wine… Anyway, after I had registered for it, I only learned during the weekend before that IPCC would be in the same building.
In a break during my meeting I went up a pair of stairs and around a corner to check out the IPCC. I thought the place would be more or less under siege. It wasn’t. The unimpressive entrance was rather desolate:
file://localhost/C:/Users/Ahrvid/Desktop/Bluetooth/Bilder/IPCC/Photo034_3.jpg
The place was the Munchenbryggeriet (The Munich Brewery) which hasn’t been used for beer manufacturing for a long time, but is now a medium-level conference site a bit off (maybe 2 miles away) from downtown Stockholm. This was the door:
file://localhost/C:/Users/Ahrvid/Desktop/Bluetooth/Bilder/IPCC/Photo036_3.jpg
There weren’t many people around. Having such a less than top level site may be seen as a fall from grace of the IPCC. I went in to the reception area. Some lonely people stood around. It looked like, well, I don’t know – the reception for a high school exhibition perhaps:
file://localhost/C:/Users/Ahrvid/Desktop/Bluetooth/Bilder/IPCC/Photo035_3.jpg
Well, I didn’t go further. I saw signs for two lines: delegates and media. Nothing for the concerned public. I was there for another meeting – maybe I could have talked my way further in, but I had to go back to my real meeting with Science & Public. I was rather satisfied with documenting the not too impressive surroundings of the Biggest Science Hype and Now Slip of the Last Decades.
I grabbed a copy of the IPCC welcome folder, which had nothing about science (doubt they had much more science elsewhere), but PR stuff about Stockholm tourist sights. Including the new ABBA museum, here shown on top of the IPCC folder:
file://localhost/C:/Users/Ahrvid/Desktop/Bluetooth/Bilder/IPCC/Photo002_5.jpg
Twist your head, like the IPCC tries to twist things around. Some lines from ABBA seems fitting:
Nothing more to say
No more ace to play
The winner takes it all
The loser standing small
–Ahrvid
Ps. The Science & Public meeting was attended by one government minister, one former minister, a parliament education committee chairman and one of two leaders of the Environmentalist Party. It felt much hotter than the IPCC thing…

Hm, as said, I’m not comfortable with how Flickr works. It seems my attempt gave links pointing to my local disk – which is no good at all. Here’s (I hope) all the pictures as a “set” viewable on the net:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/101505368@N08/sets/72157635817095953
I local visits the IPCC in Stockholm.
I hope it works better. Descriptions as in my previous posting.
–Ahrvid