Extreme Attribution Gets a National Academies Upgrade: But the Weakest Link Problem Remains

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine has released a new report, Attribution of Extreme Weather and Climate Events and Their Impacts, accompanied by a press release announcing that the science of extreme-event attribution has "advanced considerably" and can now make increasingly confident statements about the influence of human-caused climate change on individual weather events. That press release is the sales pitch, big on hype, low on science. The report itself is more ...

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41 Comments
July 17, 2026 2:05 pm

As usual, wuwt employs an uneducated blogger to trash a top tier science report. Is it any wonder they call wuwt the home of Climate Denial.

DipChip
Reply to  Warren Beeton
July 17, 2026 2:26 pm

What is Climate Denial? I have been living with climate my entire life; it’s like many other components of life, they seem to be with me where ever I am.

Reply to  DipChip
July 18, 2026 4:43 am

They can never say what we actually “deny”, that they have any real scientific proof for.

Walter Sobchak
Reply to  Warren Beeton
July 17, 2026 3:18 pm

The ad hominem fallacy rides again.

Phillip Chalmers
Reply to  Warren Beeton
July 17, 2026 4:20 pm

You did not read the report and you use the utterly nonsensical word “denial” to people who are in absolutely no doubt that the climate of planet earth, and Mars and Venus for that matter, changes and has always changed under influences mostly already documented in the sun and the solar system.

It is a consensus study by a committee and what have they emphasised in the report – MORE MONEY FOR MORE STUDIES

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Warren Beeton
July 17, 2026 5:47 pm

Obviously some strange usage of “top tier” that I hadn’t previously been aware of.

h/t A. Dent

Reply to  Warren Beeton
July 17, 2026 6:44 pm

Warren:
Please enlighten us to your credentials so we can ascertain whether you are the actual “uneducated blogger”.
Note that your ad hominem attacks & appeals to authority need some type of validation to be believable – without it you are just another internet troll.

Reply to  B Zipperer
July 17, 2026 7:41 pm

It seems that Beeton is actually saying Anthony Watts is “uneducated”. !!!

leefor
Reply to  Warren Beeton
July 17, 2026 9:52 pm

What “science” does the report employ? Hint: models are not science.

bobclose
Reply to  Warren Beeton
July 18, 2026 5:22 am

Welcome to reality Warren, if the report deserves to be trashed it will be for good scientific reasons, as any good scientist knows humans are not causing global climate change, just local warming mainly in cities. This urban warming has nothing to do with CO2 emissions, it is a result of modern industrialisation, technology, city infrastructure and buildings.

Laws of Nature
Reply to  Warren Beeton
July 18, 2026 5:36 am

Well, I haven’t read the original article nor the blog here, but I happen to know for sure and without any doubt, that global climate models have uncertainties not discussed in publications like that.

And you can too by just looking into it, it’s not really hidden or complicated.

For example G. Schmidt’s blog about arctic sea ice trends from a year ago:
https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2025/05/predicted-arctic-sea-ice-trends-over-time/
Do you see these areas around the trend lines? Do you see them discussed in any way in the article? Has a trend discussion without their uncertainty any scientific merit at all?
Once you have your answer for these easy to find out questions, you can apply them to the results of these attribution runs as well.. like I said not complicated at all!

There is the big issue that the uncertainties as shown in the article are way too small, for example the transition from CMIP5 to CMIP6 in particular has revealed massive problems for older models not discussed at their time and there is good evidence that CMIP6 models have big scientific holes, but you actually don’t need that to understand that the attribution results as precented in the article above are deeply flawed.

Like I said, it is very easy to see and I believe anybody reading my opinion here no matter sceptic or alarmist should have a look at G. Schmidt’s blog. It only takes a few minutes and teaches you all about global climate model uncertainty attribution you will ever need to know.

MarkW
Reply to  Warren Beeton
July 18, 2026 6:40 am

The standard left wing trope: Anyone who disagrees with me is an idiot.
Plus: Any paper that I agree with is a “top tier science report”.

Note how the troll doesn’t even attempt to refute anything written, he just starts insulting those with the audacity to disagree with the party line.

Reply to  Warren Beeton
July 18, 2026 4:29 pm

When you make a demonstrably false statement, it devastates whatever credibility you may have had.

Bob Weber
July 17, 2026 2:28 pm

Extreme event attribution as presented by NASEM is the ultimate capstone of confirmation bias.

Their physical understanding of the climate has not progressed enough to make their claims.

It is a most sophisticated way to lie to themselves, thinking they know what is ‘counterfactual’.

Laws of Nature
Reply to  Bob Weber
July 18, 2026 5:48 am

Alarmists like F. Otto have published results using RCP8.5 based models quite extensively and actively seeking media attention while doing do
As these scenarios is now deemed unlikely, it seems essential to revisit these publications and either correct or withdraw them.

As these “experts” apparently too busy to do that correction by themselves (just like Mann, Bradley and Hughes are seemingly too busy to address valid criticism to their 1998 hockey stick publication), sceptics, press and politics should keep calling them out… at least in a sane rational world..

dbakerber
July 17, 2026 3:01 pm

Invariably the attributions I have seen lack one requirement that is absolutely scientifically required to be able to claim climate change is making a particular weather event more likely. That is an increasing frequency of said event. Without that increasing frequency any claim of increasing likelihood is simply unscientific, unsupportable speculation.

Phillip Chalmers
Reply to  dbakerber
July 17, 2026 4:24 pm

yes, there has not been one attribution along with cries of crisis which has not been proven by actual observation to be wrong.
All analyses which give results that do not match observation are spurious, that means they are not fit for purpose.

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  dbakerber
July 17, 2026 5:48 pm

But they’re gotten worserer! Or something…

Laws of Nature
Reply to  dbakerber
July 18, 2026 5:57 am

Why would a drawing of a trendline showing such an increase by a four year old child not be considered valid science?
Because it is very doubtful if all relevant factors and their uncertainties were considered with the necessary depth/resolution.

So, actually I disagree with your statement and say, that a series of models generating such a trend still don’t produce any scientific information just like that imaginary child or ANY existing attribution run!

hdhoese
July 17, 2026 4:09 pm

NAS lost it near the end of the last century when they started doing value judgements, on turtles best as I recall. Attribution is not much different from blaming someone.
https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/weather/these-are-striking-forecasts-super-el-nino-keeps-getting-even-more-likely-and-it-could-bring-a-humanitarian-crisis?utm_source=firefox-newtab-en-us
“Dynamical models now assign a 90% chance of the 2026-2027 El Niño being an all-time record event, sending temperatures in the Pacific Ocean up to around 3.6 degrees Celsius (6.5 degrees Fahrenheit) above average, according to an analysis by Zeke Hausfather, a research scientist at Berkeley Earth and an author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Seventh Assessment Report.”

John Hultquist
Reply to  hdhoese
July 17, 2026 5:12 pm

an all-time record event
I think this means “since 1950”. Folks may differ on the concept of “all-time”.

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  John Hultquist
July 17, 2026 5:49 pm

Hence the myopic nature of climate science.

Reply to  hdhoese
July 18, 2026 4:42 pm

The instrumental world-record, terrestrial Tmax has stood for 113 years. Terrestrial temperatures have a standard 2m measurement height. What is the standard depth for ocean surface temperature measurements?

Reply to  hdhoese
July 18, 2026 4:48 pm

The unstated assumption made by Hausfather is that CO2 is responsible for the Sea Surface Temperatures (of unspecified and inconsistent depths) and that El Niños are the result of “hidden heat.”

Phillip Chalmers
July 17, 2026 4:15 pm

~.~ Researchers use a combination of observational data, weather and climate models, and statistical models to make these comparisons and quantify the effect of climate change on the extreme event.

The report is spurious at its core. If, by extraordinary chance some weather events are demonstrated to change frequency in line with the slight slow natural warming this group and this work give absolutely no proof or evidence that the warming is caused by human activity.
The “human caused global warming” is gloss.
The report does not contain what it claims.

Reply to  Phillip Chalmers
July 17, 2026 4:42 pm

Climate attribution is akin to using two different sets of tarot cards, or different cups of tea leaves, and assigning probabilities to the difference.

That is how utterly unscientific it is.

Denis
July 17, 2026 4:42 pm

If “extreme events” are being influenced by the release of CO2 to the Earth’s atmosphere, which ones are? Are the. event increasing detectably? For hurricanes and cyclones the answer is clearly no. How about floods, droughts, hail storms, property damage (corrected for inflation and population growth)? Just which ones are increasing in number, strength or other consequences? I would really like to know.

J Boles
Reply to  Denis
July 17, 2026 5:10 pm

We have PASSED the tipping point, so now everywhere is warming twice as fast as every other place!

Capt Jeff
July 17, 2026 5:18 pm

Given the history of heatwaves and high temperature records dominate in the early part of the 20th century in the US, that anyone can claim a single recent heatwave event is caused by climate change is nuts!
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/07/flawed-heatwave-report-leads-to-false.html

Jeff Alberts
July 17, 2026 5:46 pm

What is a “climate event”?

Mr.
Reply to  Jeff Alberts
July 18, 2026 4:52 am

Mainly, it’s a taxpayer-paid holiday at some exotic location where the main activity is participating in a bullshitting contest.

July 17, 2026 7:12 pm

Nice work Anthony!
And the Chart should be roadmap for future WUWT posts regarding each box’s major uncertainties since we are going to be inundated wth “attribution science” in the run-up to AR7. The better we understand what happens behind the curtain the better we can call-out the climate misinformation.
In the May 2026 issue of Physics Today [p20] the “coordinating lead author on regional and extreme weather” for AR7, Friederike Otto, made made it clear that attribution will be front & center. After all, she is a co-founder of World Weather Attribution.
Quoting her: “I also work with legal scholars on how to translate scientific evidence into legal evidence…”. Roger Pielke Jr has documented that this legal emphasis was part of the reason for the founding of the WWA. [aka climate lawfare]
Clearly, she will be a continual source of motivated thinking & biased science misinformation. Very sad!

Reply to  B Zipperer
July 17, 2026 7:38 pm

Otto actually stated that her bogus “attribution studies” were specifically designed to help climate litigation.



Laws of Nature
Reply to  bnice2000
July 18, 2026 6:05 am

In an answer above I just used her as an example for a scientist who urgently needs to correct or withdraw any of her work using RCP 8.5 scenarios!

(Such scenarios are no longer recommend to be used as they are too unrealistic.. an attribute highly relevant for attribution studies)

Laws of Nature
Reply to  Laws of Nature
July 18, 2026 7:02 am

Uhm… I was curious to see how many of her publications are impacted by the rcp8.5 removal and got into a discussion with Google Gemini.

It was interesting to see it flip-flopping from her being a noble being saving the planet to most of her previous work needing revisions.
Also the question if she should serve in any policy advising role drew an initial praise of needed expertise and diversity (which I agree on in principle btw), followed by enforced strict logic that dubious persons are not needed in any significant roles, especially if they demonstrated the will to push their opinions over facts!

I can’t wait to see a lawyer using such an argument in court, because as it stands I believe the vast majority of her 217 publications are in need of major revisions after RCP8.5 is no longer fit to be used!

Rod Evans
July 17, 2026 10:54 pm

When a weather event is glibly assigned to ‘climate change’ that automatically triggers a sceptical response gene somewhere deep in my core.
The easy Guardian/BBC option of blaming climate change for everything saves them having to do the difficult bit of studying. When your organisation has advised man made climate change is settled science that eliminates the need for any query or questioning of the attribution.
When It is all man made, it makes reporting so much simpler and the spin out programs become prime time fillers too. Cue, David Attenborough.
Climate is certainly changing. The average global recorded temperature suggests the atmosphere at lower levels has warmed about one degree Celsius over the past 150 years, thankfully.
The challenge is for scientists to accurately describe what is the cause of the change? Is it in any way significant, is it potentially damaging for life? Is the change normal, within previously observed changes, or is it abnormal?
The ultimate question once an understanding has been achieved and accepted is, what action to take?
The UK is enjoying the second settled hot sunny summer in a row. This is abnormal, my boundary brook has dried up for only the second year in my lifetime. Is this the early stages of a climate catastrophe or is it simply variation within normal limits? The water companies are already in crisis. The energy industry particularly wind generators are in trouble due to high pressure lingering around the country. Solar have never had it so good but that is unlikely to persist beyond the next month.
Making sense of a chaotic system is so hard, maybe I should write to the BBC to let them know?

Reply to  Rod Evans
July 18, 2026 4:57 pm

I think that the unstated assumption for the claim about heatwaves is that “A rising tide floats all boats.” Yet, the world record for Tmax has stood for 113 years. The average is rising because it appears to be driven by increases in Tmin, which is driven by UHI and possibly increasing humidity.

July 18, 2026 5:56 am

Nice article Anthony. You have broken down the piece parts and their uncertainty. Uncertainty will become the next biggest issue in climate science. If climate science has advanced appreciatively, then uncertainty reduction plays a large part. If uncertainty remains large, then all the studies claiming to be able to pinpoint attribution are simply guesses.

What I couldn’t ascertain from your essay is whether the frequency of severe events or the severity is expected to increase, or perhaps both. These are two different things and must have different scientific evidence to prove them.

Thanks.

Reply to  Jim Gorman
July 18, 2026 5:01 pm

Jim, did you and your brother get my recent email about statistics?