The Climate Driven Migration Map Hidden in Ancient DNA

Charles Rotter Every so often I find a climate paper that is a pleasure to read because it is not trying to sell me anything. No policy prescription, no call to action, no press release warning that we have five years to save the planet. Just four researchers, three of them at Harvard, asking a genuinely interesting question and answering it with a method that did not exist a decade ago. The paper is "Climate and Prehistoric Migration," a June working paper from the National Bureau of Economic R...

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7 Comments
strativarius
July 3, 2026 6:24 am

Migration isn’t what I would call welcome at this time.

A TOTAL of 83 asylum seekers are to be moved into £250,000 homes on an estate dubbed “Migrant Street”. 
Twenty-one smart newbuild houses have been earmarked for the families.  

Never mind the thousands on the waiting list.

Go to 8:20

Scissor
Reply to  strativarius
July 3, 2026 6:33 am

Imagine if immigration policy was meant to benefit one’s citizens.

Scissor
July 3, 2026 6:32 am
Reply to  Scissor
July 3, 2026 6:37 am

Good point. I updated the link the actual PDF, not the description.

Bob Weber
July 3, 2026 6:37 am

“Huybers is a serious climate scientist, not a man with a skeptical axe to grind.”

This is not an either/or situation, as someone can be both.

Bob Weber
July 3, 2026 7:34 am

This is a fascinating topic, but what are the error bars are on the DNA analysis and temperatures?

I’m not convinced a 0.4°C change in temperature is always significant everywhere to migration.

That relatively small change has already been exceeded since 1850 while the world’s growing climates have been pretty stable, if not expanding from more CO2, warmth, and rain. Crops have not largely been displaced or decreased through the latest 0.4°C change, albeit crop production since 1850 has also been a matter of petroleum energy and technology, not just nature.

Perhaps crop migrations/changes are naturally less sensitive to ‘changes’ and are more a non-linear function of absolute temperature range. Maybe the study could be made better and more useful by including absolute temperature ranges.

A growing population will inevitably diffuse outward in preferential directions as it grows, after most of the nearby lands are taken up from population growth and use. Thus many migrations will naturally follow after long periods of population growth fed by good growing conditions. This would indicate population density is a factor in migration.

I’m also not convinced South Americans are presently ‘migrating’ to North America, specifically the USA, to escape climate change in South America – it is politically and economically imposed.

Or do a certain percentage of people through history always have a bad case of wanderlust?

Scarecrow Repair
July 3, 2026 7:38 am

You read the bad stuff so we don’t have to.
You read the good stuff so we can too.