Robert Vislocky, Ph.D.
An article published in Nature Communications (“Rapid Flips Between Warm and Cold Extremes in a Warming World”) has been making its rounds recently in several climate forums on social media even though it was published a year ago (see link below). In the article the authors claim that flips between warm and cold extremes are becoming more frequent and intense in a warming world.
According to the authors, rapid extreme temperature flips “allow a very short time for human and ecosystem preparedness to respond and adapt” and “can increase the risk of severe and even irreversible impacts on human health, infrastructure, air quality, and plant phenology.”
Of course the news media swarmed all over the article like a fly to honey and pimped up the scare. Check out some of the dire headlines below:
“Sweating to Shivering: Study Finds Rapid Swings in Temperature Have Increased”https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/22/climate/temperature-swings-climate-change.html
“Study Finds Sudden Weather Whiplash Events on the Rise”
https://www.usu.edu/today/story/study-finds-sudden-weather-whiplash-events-on-the-rise
“From boiling hot to freezing cold: Climate crisis sparks sudden temperature changes”
Now it’s time for the reality check. Figure 1 below from the article shows the trends in the frequency (a, b), intensity (c, d) and transition duration (e, f) of extreme warm-to-cold and cold-to-warm flips for the period 1961 to 2023. The global trend is shown in the smaller embedded charts while the regional trends are shown as shaded areas on the maps. Extreme flips are defined as going from at least one standard deviation above normal to at least one standard deviation below normal (or vice-versa).
Figure 1. Trends in the frequency (a, b), intensity (c, d) and transition duration (e, f) of extreme warm-to-cold and cold-to-warm flips. Wu, S., Luo, M., Lau, G.NC. et al. Rapid flips between warm and cold extremes in a warming world. Nat Commun 16, 3543 (2025).
Now brace yourselves, according to their charts the number of extreme warm-to-cold flips increased from about 1.64 flips per year in 1961 to a whopping 1.82 flips per year sixty-two years later in 2023 (Fig 1a). That’s an increase of 0.29 extra extreme flip days per century! The number of extreme cold-to-warm flips increased from about 1.43 flips per year in 1961 to a colossal 1.51 flips per year in 2023 (Fig 1b). That’s an increase of 0.12 extreme flip days per century. With that kind of change I don’t know how life could possibly adjust (tongue-in-cheek humor).
While the authors may be able to show statistical significance of these frequency trends, in reality they are meteorologically and physically insignificant to the point where no human, animal, or plant would even notice the change (even if such change was real).
In addition to the flip frequency, the authors claim that the transition duration is decreasing too. This is the time it takes in days to go from a warm extreme to a cold extreme (or vice-versa). In the graphs it appears the average flip between extremes takes a little over four days or roughly 100 hours. After a whole century of warming the average flip between extremes would be about 2.5 hours less based on their trend lines (Figs 1e, 1f). Again, this change is entirely meaningless as is the intensity increase of 0.15 standard deviations per century (Figs 1c, 1d).
On top of the meaningless trends in observed extreme temperature flips, there are several questionable aspects of the study that raise red flags for concern. For starters, why did the authors begin their analyses in 1961? The temperature datasets that they used in the study all go back much further than 1961 (e.g., 1940 for the ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis dataset, 1940 for the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset, and 1850 for Berkeley Earth). So why not start the trend in 1940, for example, in line with when the reanalysis data sets begin? Maybe it’s because the trends disappeared or reversed when longer datasets are utilized? Interestingly, although the 1961-2023 data shows a tiny increase in flip frequency, the data since 1980 shows absolutely no trend according to their charts in (Figs 1a and 1b). So it’s quite possible the 1961 start date was cherry picked to show a positive trend in flip frequency.
But wait, there’s more! The authors apply CMIP6 climate model simulations using four different emission scenarios out to 2100 (see Figure 2a to 2f below). Under SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0 scenarios the authors show roughly a 7% increase in the frequency and intensity of flips between extreme warm and extreme cold temperatures (and vice-versa) by the end of this century. Accompanying those results is the usual appeal to emotions that these flips will disproportionately affect poorer nations. Nonetheless, both of those high emission scenarios have been recently declared unrealistic by the IPCC. Under more realistic emission scenarios that were tested by the authors, no meaningful trends in extreme flips are shown out to 2100. What’s even more interesting is that the historical climate model simulation from 1961 to 2023 that they use as a baseline actually shows a slightly declining frequency of extreme temperature flips during this period (Figs 2a, 2b, gray curve), which is contrary to their observational study in Figure 1 that showed a tiny increase.
The bottom line is this is a perfect example of another study from the climate community that presents very marginal results with significant red flags but is sensationalized by the news & social media who refuse to bat a critical eye at the study along with an apparently forgiving peer review.
The rain is never gunna fall and what does won’t be enough to even fill our dams-
Month of rain in a day, two states smashed
We’ll all be rooned-
Said Hanrahan – John O’Brien Poet
Measured where… Urban heat islands ??
And climate models …. WOW… must be true 😉
“Extreme flips are defined as going from at least one standard deviation above normal to at least one standard deviation below normal (or vice-versa).”
I would have defined “normal” as the average for the period plus/minus two standard deviations (95% confidence interval iirc).
Our “normal” April temperatures here are 6.4 +/- 3.0°C, which makes those fiery red anomoly depictions look kind of silly.
“but is sensationalized by the news & social media “
But you won’t see any of the forum’s climate trolls come out to say that it is sensationalised garbage science. 😉
Gulp! How could we have missed it and Gaia has snuck up on us?
AMOC is breaking down – and Europe is first in line | Watch
Freezing European refugees are going to pour into the warmer ME causing woke friction with the rightful indigenous inhabitants and we’ll all be rooned.
The only “flipping out” I see are climate alarmists losing their minds over nothing.
Just like always, or at least since 1988.
As a coastal resident, I notice extreme temperature flips everytime the fog comes in. It can be 85 degrees all day and drop to 55 instantly.
Wow! The mainstream media have discovered there is a big difference between peak summer conditions and the depths of winter in some parts of the world.
Earth shaking news.
BTW, it is quite nice down here in Australia with a vast crescent of land blessed by a Mediterranean climate, clean air, lovely clean water and power to waste in air-conditioning set to cooling and warming as required.
I’m almost tempted to read the referees’ reviews (assuming Nature, as usual, includes them), but I have laundry to sort when I get home from my current trip. I do wonder if the authors can provide a mechanism for the flips? I assume such would be incorporated into the modeling. Or the model was gamed to produce the desired results, which, apparently it could not actually accomplish. What an embarrassment. I doubt one could submit a discussion article that points out the shortcomings of the study and expect it to be accepted for publication. Nature: All the Science that is Consistent with Preconceptions.
“From boiling hot to freezing cold: Climate crisis sparks sudden temperature changes”
Right off the bat, I knew this was garbage. Greater temperature extremes, flip-flops of temperature, and stronger weather systems are more common and impacting when there’s a strong pole-to-equator temperature gradient. If the world is warming, this should be less and less so.
Even in Kenya, I highly doubt the ambient air temperature gets hot enough to boil water. And it likely doesn’t get to freezing all that often either.
“ I highly doubt the ambient air temperature gets hot enough to boil water”
If it did, no one would be living there.
Coober Peby comes close.
Coober Pedy.
Been there. Yup.
I don’t know anywhere in the world, where one standard of deviation from “normal” temperatures is enough to get to “boiling hot” or “freezing cold”.
No place on the planet gets “boiling hot”
Many places get freezing cold.. Some, all year around. !
Funny that the highs being higher and the lows being lower cancel proving no global warming.
;-))
I don’t know. Here in NE Ohio, yesterday and today we had temps 85-ish. Tonight by 7pm it goes to 71 and well into the 50’s overnight. Tomorrow’s high is forecast to be 55! Damn, they are right!
Or, that’s not uncommon here. Oh well….
The global boiling dooming is over and blown away by the real human problem-
Japan has 9 million empty homes – and it’s getting worse fast | Watch
Notice how it begins in the regions and will ultimately spread to the cities and the last thing you want is watermelons telling the new generation they’re a scourge on Gaia.
All those scientists panic merchants and portenders of doom were barking up the wrong tree-
The Hidden Truth About Our Collapsing Birth Rates – Mads Larsen
The bi-polar disorder of the climate alarmist.
THere are indeed to poles.
Typo… two, not to poles.
Humor lost is humor lost.
Point and laugh lads. The inanity just increases in this best of all possible worlds.
Just wanted to point out that flies don’t swarm to honey…
Yes, although time flies like an arrow, while fruit flies like a banana.
I just want to point my middle finger and “flip” them off.
flies do swarm to BS , though !! 😉
I know, right? For instance, this morning the temperature is around 55F, but will be going up to about 91F this afternoon, an extreme “temperature flip”. How will I ever survive.
Today and tomorrow, then the max is 30 F lower. How can I survive this? Run around, panic, panic.
Oh wait, it’s going to rain. The sky is falling! The sky is falling!
The use of highly truncated graphs to make insignificant changes look large is completely deceptive.
DENIER!!!
Heresy!
Ah. “Climate Whiplash” is back in the conversation.
I think I shall get another cup of coffee.
From the above article:
“Now brace yourselves, according to their charts the number of extreme warm-to-cold flips increased from about 1.64 flips per year in 1961 to a whopping 1.82 flips per year sixty-two years later in 2023 (Fig 1a).”
Now wait just one minute! Whatever happened to the standard two (2.00) warm vs. cold flips per year that have been happening over the last 100 million or so years . . . you know, what we call the SEASONS on Earth?
For the temperate and polar zones of both Earth’s northern and southern hemispheres, temperatures vary significantly from warm-to-cold-and-back-to-warm over the course of one year in each hemisphere, summer versus winter.
This, from Google’s AI bot:
“The cities with the greatest difference between average summer highs and average winter lows are located in the interior of Eastern Siberia (Russia) and Mongolia . . .
— Verkhoyansk, Russia: avg Jan low: -49°F; avg July high +68°F; Difference = 117°F
— Yakutsk, Russia: avg Jan low: -44°F; avg July high +76°F; Difference = 120°F
— Oymyakon, Russia: avg Jan low: -55°F; avg July high +70°F; Difference = 125°F“
To the best of my knowledge and belief, the humans and flora and fauna in these cities don’t suffer severe, let alone irreversible, “impacts on human health, infrastructure, air quality, and plant phenology” as a result of these temperature swings.
It appears that the editors at Nature Communications need a reality check.
Around here, strong cold fronts often have a strong southerly wind ahead of them and a strong northerly wind behind them.
For us having a spike in temperatures followed by a plunge in temperatures is normal.
We call it spring.
> “The number of extreme cold-to-warm flips increased from about 1.43 flips per year in 1961 to a colossal 1.51 flips per year in 2023…”
The massive increase in input data means extremes that were previously missing or smoothed are now captured.
1940s–1950s: Data relies primarily on ground-based weather stations, radiosondes, and early ships. During this period, synoptic coverage is robust in the Northern Hemisphere but sparser elsewhere, resulting in higher model uncertainty.
1970s–1980s: The introduction of widespread satellite observations led to a massive expansion of ingested data.
2000s–Present: The system ingests an enormous amount of varied telemetry, scaling from about 17,000 daily observations in 1940 to over 25 million daily observations in recent years.
Bob Dylan said as much:
You’re a Big Girl Now, from Blood on the Tracks, 1975
On November 11, 1911 a ‘blue norther’ came down from the north west across the plains. Three cities recorded their ‘highest ever’ and ‘lowest ever’ temperatures within 24 hours of each other. Two have since set ‘higher’ records. Lost that article in a hard drive crash several years ago otherwise I could name the cities involved. From memory: a 70°F drop in a couple of hours.