By Caleb Jasso
Two weeks ago, I was caught in Dubai for a layover when the war suddenly became very real. While driving back from a pleasant sunset walk along Dubai Creek, my Uber driver suddenly yelled, “Brother, look at the sky!” Peering through the windshield, we watched as the UAE air defense system lit up the sky orange as it intercepted multiple drones, one of which we would later learn struck near the U.S. consulate in Dubai, causing a fire; fortunately, it was quickly extinguished, and there were no fatalities. To say that war in the Middle East has become a state of normality would be a profound and unfortunate understatement. As drones and missiles fly overhead, the majority of which are intercepted, people go about their day as if nothing has changed. In Dubai, I had the privilege of witnessing an exceptional demonstration of resilience, an unwillingness to give in to fear as the very clear and present danger grows with each passing day, the conflict escalates.
Operation Epic Fury is ongoing and will have long-lasting impacts that will reverberate not only across the region but also worldwide. Iran is one of the world’s largest producers of crude oil and has some of the largest known reserves. Decades of sanctions have left the country with a very limited customer base for its oil, with the majority of it going to China at heavily discounted prices. For this reason, with the possibility of regime change in Iran, China stands to lose a significant portion of its discounted oil supply, especially when combined with the shift in political direction in Venezuela, another vital source of heavily discounted seaborne imports for the Chinese Communist Party. Additionally, as the Strait of Hormuz is not effectively closed, a halt of up to a fifth of the global oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) supply, which comes from the other major regional suppliers like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait, is now beginning to take its toll on energy prices across the world.
Why the Strait of Hormuz Matters
Serving as the bridge between the Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, the Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important strategic chokepoints in the world. With an astounding 20% of global petroleum liquid products flowing through the Strait, it plays a vital role in both the global economy and the economies of the Gulf states. For example, of the total oil that moves through the Strait, 38% is sourced from Saudi Arabia, a nation where 53.4% of the government’s revenue came from oil in 2025. Furthermore, Qatar exports all of its 9.3 billion cubic feet per day of LNG through the Strait, accounting for most of the LNG transiting through it. These nations are heavily dependent on revenues earned from oil and gas exports, which is why Iran is targeting both the Strait and the Gulf nations’ energy supply chains. Unable to strike the U.S. mainland, Iran is attacking the Gulf states that support the ongoing U.S. military presence in the region.
Pain will continue to be felt by those in the region that exports oil and gas, but it will not be limited to the region. With a substantial amount of exports destined for Asia, upwards of 83% in 2024, including China, South Korea, Japan, India, and Taiwan, the cost of energy in these countries is at risk of rising, which, given the sizable amount of manufacturing that takes place there, could lead to price rises for multiple sectors. For this reason, China is pressuring Iran to allow for tankers to pass through and to continue shipments, given that China has not yet fully diversified its seaborne oil supply chain away from Iran. Closure of the Strait of Hormuz, even if not by blockade but simply by shippers unwilling to take the risk of asset loss and rising insurance costs, will remain a global market issue rather than a regional challenge. The lack of transit through the Strait of Hormuz and the possibility that the Houthis in Yemen begin impeding transit through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea in solidarity with Iran will lead to higher costs for everything shipped from the region and manufactured in East Asia.
Attacking Energy Infrastructure
Part of Iran’s strategy involves a willingness to openly attack any Gulf state with a connection to the U.S., with new attacks expanding to include Azerbaijan and reaching as far as Cyprus. Iran is doing so with a particular focus on energy infrastructure, recognizing the importance of the energy sector to the regional economy. Multiple attacks have taken place targeting infrastructure in Qatar, impacting up to 17% of its LNG export capacity, the UAE, whose Shah gas field was struck, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia, which is putting pressure on a vital part of these countries’ economies. If Iran is allowed to continue to inflict severe damage on the energy infrastructure of the Gulf states, while depleting their defensive stockpiles with a steady flow of drones and ballistic missile attacks, they will be placed into an even more vulnerable position both economically and militarily.
China’s Reliance on Iranian Oil
China imports almost all of the oil Iran exports, over of 80% of it. The strategy is simple: purchase oil from a heavily sanctioned country with few or no other customers and enjoy a significant discount. The same strategy was implemented with Venezuela, though not to the same extent as with Iran, in terms of the volume of oil purchased. The combination of Iranian and Venezuelan seaborne oil imports regularly accounts for 17% of China’s seaborne imports; 13.4% from Iran and 4% to 4.5%. If the war continues to escalate, or perhaps if Kharg Island’s energy infrastructure, which processes 90% of Iran’s oil for export, is attacked or occupied, China could potentially lose close to 20% of its seaborne imports. If the war leads to a regime change in Iran more favorable toward the West, or Iran’s ability to export discounted oil to China is impacted by either military action or the lifting of sanctions, it will be forced to aggressively diversify its seaborne oil imports.
Conclusion
I am fortunate to be concluding this piece from the comfort of my home in Arizona after an evacuation flight to San Fransico, a commuter flight to Los Angeles, and a final long drive home. Operation Epic Fury has effectively disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, unleashed waves of attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure, and driven sharp increases in worldwide energy prices.
China stands to lose up to 20% of its discounted seaborne oil imports from Iran and Venezuela, while Asian economies face higher manufacturing costs that will be passed on to global consumers. The resilience I saw in Dubai, where life continued amid ongoing attacks, now faces an even greater test as the global energy supply chain is under strain. With escalation showing no signs of abating, volatility in oil, LNG, and gasoline prices has become the new normal, underscoring how deeply interconnected our world’s energy security truly is.
Caleb Jasso is a Senior Policy Advisor at the Institute for Energy Research.
This article was originally published by RealClearEnergy and made available via RealClearWire.
Drones over Dubai? That’s nothing. Wait until you see orange man over Britain-
Britain’s housing crisis has just blown up – and Trump is to blame
Fans of Rachel Reeves.
Makes a change from blaming Brexit, I suppose.
And the moral is that King George should not have raised those taxes on tea.
And King George’s military should have invited George Washington to join them with a Royal appointment rather than just an appointment as an officer into the VA militia. He never forgave them for that insult.
Of course- Trump is to blame for every problem in the solar system. /s
He’s everywhere…he’s everywhere…. under the tinfoil and turbans and inside their exploding heads.
The influence Trump has
on world affairs pales in significance to the influence he has on so many minds.
Nothing about the UK decision to not produce gas in their own backyard.
If Trump is truly omnipotent, does that mean…OMG! lol
Toast just fell butter side down – and Trump is to blame?
I have an ingrown toenail. Trump!
Operation Epic Confusion.
That gets worse with Keith Stalin
every war is epic confusion
Sun Tzu wrote that chaos creates opportunities.
(I note that Trump was reported as using those words recently. Wonder where he finds tips about dealing with adversaries,?)
It’s interesting that in that entire discussion there is no mention of Israel. I suppose the author is just relaying his experience in Dubai but I wonder about his motivations for this omission.
It would appear that that author is blaming Iranian attacks on its neighbors because they have some connection to the U.S., and because Iran is unable to launch missiles that could hit the U.S. mainland. Poor Iran.
And China is both a victim and beneficiary of U.S. sanctions on Iran, Venezuela. Poor China, poor Venezuela. Maybe I’m reading it wrong.
I read a report that Israel begin in the early 1980s pestering US presidents to join them in an attack on Iran, the objective of which was to cut off support to Hamas and the many other militant groups constantly attacking Israel. All the presidents starting with George Bush rejected their proposal. What did Israel offer President Trump to get him to start a war with Iran?
Maybe they threatened to use their nukes against Iran if The Donald didn’t join in…
“What did Israel offer President Trump … ”
My take: The Israelis appear to have better information about what goes on in Iran than the Iranians do. They shared that information with “The Donald” and his gut-feeling told him something like “I can do this now instead of watching nuclear missiles fly out of Iran toward American interests and America.”
Prove me wrong.
Not Israel. Iran’s Imminent threat. Read my other post.
Imminent threat does not require a missile on the pad, spooled up, awaiting final launch codes. Imminent threat is not the commonly understood definition.
All those presidents were politicians. Trump is not. He sees a problem that effects America and tries to fix it.
Iran’s been a problem for the US (and the world) going back to Carter and the hostage crisis.
Iran’s brand of Islam is dangerous and nuts!
Even most Muslims despise Iran.
Israel paved the way for the U.S. to enter the war.
The reason the two allies now have air superiority over all of Iran is because Israel wiped out Iran’s air defenses during the 12-Day war.
The threat of Islamic fanatics acquiring nuclear weapons is what brought Trump into the fray. Israel did not have to talk Trump into anything.
Yes, the Israel Air Force cleared the way and the U.S. played cleanup with a Big Stick.
Nuclear weapons in the hands of religious fanatics is being taken off the table by Israel and Trump. Thank God for that!
Iran was 4 years closer to putting nuclear weapons on top of rockets that could reach the US.
International relations is always mysterious since every nation lies. And of course the winner will write the history.
Why should he mention Israel?(especially as he didn’t mention Gaza)
He also didn’t mention Iran and the 1000s of Bombs Israel and its lackey dropped on them where the situation is way worse than in Dubai – as the Israelis deliberately attack schools and hospitals ( never change a tactic that works so well in your concentration camp)
or deliberately target oil depots with massively overpowered missiles in a way to blow up as much oil as possible into the air to cause an environmental catastrophy.
(that’s what the chronically innocent are doing when they don’t film,dance or try to blow up nuclear facilities with stuxnet or missiles)
Israel on the other hand has the Iron Doom Dubai does not have and vassal states with interceptors in between – and it works officially so well that there is not so much news to be found and if there is on rare occasions than “Israel does not allow us to show the footage ” Erin Burnett, CNN(US MSM is as free as US politics ).
You can’t talk about something that ain’t happening.
” Iranian neighbors some connections to the USA ”
Now that’s funny:
They don’t only have some connections:
They have US Military bases there.
These bases are used to attack Iran.
(Just to make it easier for you to understand and harder to pretend :
imagine what the US, a country that destroys other countries for no reasons, would do to a country that helps an enemy that way.Let’s use Cuba(another victim)Crisis as example where the Russian wanted to deploy some rockets after the US did so in Turkey)
These Arabs are paying for those US bases( Saudi Arabia 500 mio).
Now I could even tell you why those US occupation forces are there, especially as Americans are hated so much in those regions (except for the dictators, who rely on US military to stay in power), but we’d need to go back to the Petro Dollar, the Sykes – Picot conspiracy and to those who actually put those regimes into power back then.
But this would be a waste of time like talking to a tree.
Oh – and don’t forget:
Revenge for USS Liberty.
Those 200 Americans that were killed and wounded in one of their many false flag attack (the I.raniens painted their jet black to blame egypt) must be avanged just as the failed Lavon affair and the coming false flag on Al Aqsa.
Thank you for this forensic analysis of what’s behind all the hostilities in the ME, Baghdad Bob.
No reason.
I am not going to bother as you have already closed your mind.
“No reason” is in response to the why question.
Is there any lie so vile that you won’t eagerly repeat it.
Why would there be a mention of Israel.
He discussed his first hand experiences.
He discussed global oil trade.
Save alluding to the political aspects of the oil trade, he did not delve into politics.
FYI, Iran is very close, or was assuming the targeting was successful, to having missiles that can hit the USA mainland. Fun fact: ICBMs are space launch vehicles with alternate payloads.
Iran successfully launched its hypersonic missile, a 2 stage, solid fuel, truck launched vehicle. Solid fuel rockets require significant less time to prep and launch. Truck launchers are mobile platforms. This means advanced warning of the launch is minimal. What makes the hypersonic missile especially scary is not the speed or how quickly it can be deployed and launched, but that it has a guided warhead. Most missile interceptors depend on the incoming weapon to stay on a ballistic trajectory. A guided warhead is extremely difficult to intercept with the assets currently deployed.
FYI, Iran is very close, or was assuming the targeting was successful, to having an atomic warhead.
Fun fact: According to the IAEA, Iran possesses/possessed 450 kg of 60% enriched uranium with a substantial quantity (estimated 11 warhead’s worth) of 80% enriched uranium. 90% is needed for an atomic warhead and the time, given the centrifuges are in operation to get from 80% to 90% is days. Only a couple weeks to get a new centrifuge installed and operating. Also according to IAEA, the enrichment level for energy generation and medical applications is 3% to 5%. IAEA is not a US organization.
60% enriched uranium placed in a high explosive (aka TNT or similar) warhead creates a radiological weapon. It is a terror weapon that does not inflict atomic weapon level damage but does cause equivalent radioactive fallout. While the word nuclear is commonly used, nuclear warheads required plutonium and are fusion, not fission bombs.
Disclosure. I have and/or am currently working in these areas. What I wrote is from public publications only. I cannot provide a deeper dive into the topic without violating security protocols.
“Iran successfully launched its hypersonic missile, a 2 stage, solid fuel, truck launched vehicle. Solid fuel rockets require significant less time to prep and launch. Truck launchers are mobile platforms. This means advanced warning of the launch is minimal. What makes the hypersonic missile especially scary is not the speed or how quickly it can be deployed and launched, but that it has a guided warhead. Most missile interceptors depend on the incoming weapon to stay on a ballistic trajectory. A guided warhead is extremely difficult to intercept with the assets currently deployed.”
It might not be so difficult for the Mad Mullahs to hit the United States mainland hard.
The Mad Mullahs could take a mobile launch system like you describe and hide it on a cargo ship, which could sail near the East Coast of the United States, where the launch system could be brought on deck and launched towards the U.S.
The nuclear warhead could be detonated in an air burst that would destroy the electricity grids on the East Coast and many miles inland.
The same thing could be done simultaneously off the West Coast of the United States destroying their electrical grids, too.
It would kill many Americans and would take years to repair.
How likely is this scenario? Who knows.
Nuclear weapons in the wrong hands (people with a death wish) can have dire consequences for a lot of people.
Trump is trying to fix this problem before it gets out of hand.
I was refreshed not to see an Israel reference. It inspired me to ask “who is this author I’m reading?”
I found:
“The Jasso last name is a Spanish and Basque surname, with strong roots in Mexico and Spain, often pronounced “Hasso” in Mexican Spanish. It is considered a variant of Jaso, likely originating from a place name in Navarre or Aragon, or derived from Basque words meaning “high,” “to rise,” or potentially a variant of the Greek name Jason, meaning “healer”.
So the author’s surname implies (I did not verify) Basque Spanish history which implies Catholic and Islamic which made the absence of Israel references extra-plus special. The specialness comes from insight that the world is bigger than the ancient battles that have simmered in the Middle East for my entire life. I like that China is referenced instead. China has its own historical problems, like I’ve been hearing that some day they’ll invade Taiwan for most of my life, but they;re relevant to today.
This is Trump’s Vietnam / Afghanistan; yes, he’ll win a few battles, but it’s a war he can’t ever win.
Iran has 93 million people, and 80 million of them will fight to keep American influence out.
For weeks, he’s kept claiming all the Iranian military has been destroyed, & each time they reply with another salvo.
He went in with no battle plan or exit strategy, and he won’t allow criticism, even from his own military; now he’s alienated so many former staunch allies, who wisely don’t want to be dragged into Netanyahu’s ‘Holy war’, a bit of a loser.
So as not to lose face, he’ll probably bomb some more infrastructure, kill a few thousand, declare victory & walk away (then he’ll probably claim another peace prize), leaving a generational mess & guess who will offer to help …
… China, in return for oil.
“80 million of them
will fight to keep American influence outhate the Mullahs and IRGC”Fixed it for you.
“He went in with no battle plan or exit strategy”
Nonsense. The American military works non stop developing war plans of all sorts. So you would prefer to see that nation of 80 M people with a nuclear bomb- so that it can have a nuclear war with Israel. Clearly, Iran wants to be a major regional power in the Middle East- dominating it and all that oil- and you consider this to be just peachy. Instead, America will dominate the oil business all over the planet other than a soon to be shrunken Russian Empire. Once Russia fails in Ukraine, we’ll let them pump all the oil they want but they’ll have to behave.
And that’s why countries work hard to get away from oil.
You fail to realize that America has done a lot for the planet. A brilliant constitution which can set an example, save the world from Nazis and Imperial Japan, developed much of the science that we all love so much, trying to prevent nuclear war in the Middle East, kept the Russians from dominating Europe, etc. There is always going to be one dominant nation- better America than Russia or China or Japan or Germany.
But, you say that’s why countries work hard to get away from oil? I thought it was to save the planet from roasting and the oceans from boiling.
You are absolutely correct.
It took me while (decades) to realize it, but to the left it’s always about the ends justify the means. That’s how they can go, for example, from being for voter ID or against genital mutilation of children or open borders, to the opposite.
For as long as I can remember, they always wanted energy prices to be high. e.g. Obama’s “electricity rate should necessarily skyrocket.”
Now they are suddenly against rising fuel costs. Never let a good crisis go to waste.
The left never forgave Reagan for laying the ground work for defeating the Soviet Union.
Too bad the Constitution has been broken,
Not broken- that sounds final. More like cracked and misused. But, it’s resilient.
The Constitution, in context of the Iranian conflict, most definitely has not been broken.
Not to worry. Former FBI Director, James Comey, is being investigated by a Grand Jury in Florida.
The breakers of the U.S. Constitution like Comey will be brought to Justice eventually.
Maybe a conspiracy charge for Comey as part of it. I wonder who Comey might have conspired with? I have a few guesses.
Your mistaken. You confuse your prefered endpoint w agency.
The US wants to dominate. It did for a while until time caught up and so did technology. And now it lashes out proving to other countries they cant be trusted. The more force the US put in the more its perceived enemies binded together. The petrodollar system is about to crack. That means western finance is about to break.
Russia and China play the long game. Iran has learned to do that ever since the 1980s and Perzia long long long before that.
But this ‘renewable’ business you hang onto? Total side show. It is tanking Europe atm. Fast. I have deep disagreements w the Trumpers on this forum but on this subject i am in total agreement. You clearly haven’t thought things through..
The US maintained dominance through soft power, something Trump and his followers don’t seem to understand. Just look at how they celebrated gutting USAID.
Renewables are what is keeping Europe afloat; without them, the entire Ukraine war would have looked very different.
Renewables are not a sideshow; they are one of the primary drivers behind the events we are witnessing.
You are right about the petrodollar. We are seeing the death throes of the old petrostate powers as ‘electrostates’ rise. However, the US economy will likely take the biggest hit from the petrodollar’s decline.
China is playing the long game, as they always have. Look at their decades of investment into renewables and EVs to reach their current position. Now, the West is crying foul because they missed their chance.
Russia, on the other hand, is likely to become China’s lap dog.
Well, i can now safely put you in the delusional camp, ironically the same as the Forever Trump ones.
It’s peculiar (or maybe not) to see a desired endpoint influence the perception of facts as well as the cherry picking that takes place.
I always try to be as unbiased as possible AND reasonable. We cannot help but be persuaded by algoritms.
Therefor you always need to strongarm opposition views to see if they stick. Many clearly have some way to go..
Opinions stated as facts.
You’re nuts. I’ll avoid any further conversation with such a nut job. I suggest others here may also want to avoid Belly Nelly and FoolishUserNameReloaded.
And yet more peak lie spewing from our current peak lie spewer.
As many have pointed out, they only need to repeal the laws of conservation and thermodynamics.
So, you have finally given up on pushing the global warming nonsense.
You’re delusional, as always.
OK BellyNelly.
He is looking in a mirror again.
“Nonsense. The American military works non stop …”
I wonder what the “no-plan folks” think the big building in Arlington, VA is used for.
081014-D-FW736-001C.JPG (1280×853)
I watch a dozen or so YouTube channels dedicated to the war. Most are retired military. They say that the Pentagon has made plans going back over 40 years for every conceivable possibility. Of course a real war will have unexpected events- but if you don’t think hard about it for years, you won’t be able to adjust to the reality.
[ “He went in with no battle plan or exit strategy”
Nonsense. The American military works non stop developing war plans of all sorts.]
Indeed, they do, but Trump is an egotistical bully who doesn’t bother to listen to
underlings, he is convinced that his is the only way.
Trump claimed to have completely destroyed the Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025, ( “we wiped it out,” “We hear it was obliteration. It was a virtual obliteration.” ), so why does he now feel the need to bomb schools, shopping centres, hospitals, apartment blocks ??
[ America will dominate the oil business all over the planet ]
America tends to think ALL oil on the planet belongs to America, and you consider this to be just peachy; trouble is, others don’t.
Well, whoever is running this war is doing a magnificent job. Maybe one of the most flawless military attacks in world history. I can’t think of one that has gone better.
Trump is not bombing civilians on purpose, that is only in your fevered imagination. Right out of Mad Mullahs propaganda. You require evidence on the subject of climate change. You should do the same with Mad Mullah propaganda.
America looks at things a lot of different ways. You have a very simplistic, incorrect view of the United States.
Well, Mohamed, you had better have some evidence that Trump decided to bomb those civilian sites- but of course you can’t. Also, when it comes trying to be dominant on this planet, America is doing it pretty well. If others don’t like it, well, too bad. Somebody’s gonna do it. Russia once said its Marxist system would dominate the world. China never made such a claim but it certainly wants to dominate East Asia- after all, it’s always claimed to be The Middle Kingdom. Given that the European nations have become dwarfs, America is going to rise to dominance and stay there. It’s called Realpolitik.
The issue is that he is caught in the Vietnam trap, wishing that any subsequent force will shift the balance ( the LBJ trap). And when it doesnt then more is needed.
This point of view is very similar to the Climate Alarmists one.
There’s the irony, completely lost on the Forever Trumpers/ Israel
And this comment solidifies the truth that this ” blinkered idiots and ideoloques.” perfectly describes you.
Nope. I can make an argument for the opposition. If it doesnt conform to the truth it doesnt fly.
The problem you lot have is that you let the desired outcome colour yr perception and data. Which doesnt seem to bother you. In fact, you seem to be proud of it. That is why you are idiots and you prove it again and again. Keep going guys, you are going…nowhere.
The truth? You can’t handle the truth.
— A few Good Men
Nothing you post conforms to the truth, little ideologue.
The Iran conflict does not compare to the Viet Nam police action.
You can try all you want, but you fail.
What Vietnam trap? The U.S. military won the war. Don’t you read history?
What happened to South Vietnam after the Paris Peace Accords were signed had nothing to do with the U.S. military, since U.S. combat forces were not in South Vietnam at the time. The war was over for them.
What led to South Vietnam’s loss was the actions of the anti-war Democrats in the U.S. Congress.
South Vietnam was maintaining its security after U.S. troops left, even though North Vietnam was violating the Peace Treaty and resumed attacking South Vietnam.
South Vietnam was successful in repelling the North Vietnamese attacks until the no-good, anti-war Democrats started cutting South Vietnam’s military support to the point that the South Vietnamese military lost heart and turned and ran away rather than fight.
The Vietnam war was not lost by U.S. troops being unable to defeat the enemy, as you imply. South Vietnam was lost by Stupid Democrats who wouldn’t even give the South Vietnamese what they needed to defend themselves. The Democrats, including Joe Biden and Edward Kennedy threw South Vietnam to the communist wolves.
Democrats are the cause for all the problems we have experienced in all our wars since World War II. They caused the loss of South Vietnam, and Afghanistan and the partial loss of the Iraq war. Any time appeaser Democrats get involved in war making decisionmaking, there is going to be trouble. Democrats are not trustworthy when it comes to the national interest and national security. Their first instinct is to run away from adversity. Their mental illness and fear has resulted in the death and displacement of literally millions of innocent people over the decades.
The Democrats are not fit to defend this nation. They just won’t do it. Look at what they are doing now with the Iran War. They are trying to undermine the effort at every opportunity. They do this every time. Every war we have, we have to fight the foreign enemy, and we also have to fight the Domestic Enemy, the Delusional Democrats.
Seems like the cardboard Ayatollah has been silent on the issue.
Trump said he wasn’t sure if the replacement Mullah was still alive or not. Nobody has seen him since his father, the head Mad Mullah, was killed when the war started.
What is funny is he was apparently in the building moments before the strike package came in, took a “walk” at the last minute. Wonder how long he was on Mossad’s payroll?
I would personally curry favor with the Artesh and give it 444 days.
I don’t believe Trump has said that a goal is to cause regime change – he said that is for the Iranian people. Others have put that goal forward. Eliminate the nuclear capacity, eliminate the long range missle program, find and secure the enriched uranium and now reopen the strait.
Yes, Trump says his goal is not necessarily regime change, but he would like to see it happen.
Trump should start targeting the Revolutionary Guard and the local Gestapo of the Mad Mullahs.
How to do that without putting American troops on the ground?
Well, if it was me, I would encourage the Iranian Kurds to declare their territory as free from the Mullahs, and invite others to come and escape the murdering Mullahs.
I would think that in such a situation, the Mullahs would send in troops to put down this rebellion, and that would be just what we want them to do. Once they are gathered together in large combat formations, they are sitting ducks for American AirPower. The Mullahs ground troops won’t survive the encounter.
That way the Americans reduce the numbers of the regime that are oppressing the Iranian people.
If the Mullahs troops remain in hiding, as they are now, then any rebellion not suppressed will swell quickly out of the control of the Mullahs.
Vietnam and Afganistan are so different in motive, execution, cost, duration,.. really every factor except USA entering armed conflict in a smaller nation. What does it mean “This is Trump’s Vietnam / Afghanistan“? May as well have written this is Trump’s Antietam / Somme.
Trump should have listened to my granny, who said, “Never pick a fight you can’t win”
I think Trump does listen to people like your granny.
I think Trump thinks he can win this fight. I do, too. You don’t? What gives you that impression?
“Part of Iran’s strategy involves a willingness to openly attack any Gulf state with a connection to the U.S., with new attacks expanding to include Azerbaijan and reaching as far as Cyprus.”
The upside to that is that all those missiles and drones aren’t aimed at Israel. If they were, Israel might nuke Iran. And, perhaps, though not likely, the Arab nations might now have a more favorable opinion of Israel as they are currently allies in the battle.
If this operation results in the ouster of the mad mullahs, I suspect that there will be a number of other countries looking to join Trump’s Abraham accords.
Right. Maybe the Arabs will finally decide to accept Israel’s right to exist- their distant relatives no less. If they had done this when Israel began in the ’40s- just think of how much different the entire Middle East and the world would be today. Maybe they’ll do it without liking it- but that’s a problem we all face.
the writer needs to remind themselves who started this whole western sheetshow and how the Iranians are simply replying asymmetrically, fully in line with International Law.
It’s about time the Empire of Lies got a good kicking.
Iran War & Strait of Hormuz Energy Crisis Reveal Decline of U.S. Empire: Historian Alfred McCoy
Who started this? Iran in 1979.
US in 1951 (or so)
Wrong.
Iran attack on the US embassy in 1979 was an overt act of war.
1951 involved the British.
1953 is the alleged M16/CIA-backed coup that ousted Mosaddegh, which does not seem to be an overt act of war.
I have not done a deep dive into this history. Just a quick check of dates.
Lacking investigation I can neither confirm nor disprove anything about the events back then.
Fun fact: British Petroleum (BP) back then was the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company. A lot of angst over the Iranian nationalization of oil was at the root of a lot of this.
Why do you think the CIA was involved in all this and still is?
Because it saves the US declaring war or committing acts of war. Part overt part covert. But the plan is regime change. If not possible destroy the country, including its population.
However, the US IS committing acts of war. Openly. And it doesn’t care if it follows the law or established rules of engagement. Might is right…right?
But it is getting clearer that the US might is overstated. Everybody can see that.
You can state: ‘mission accomplished’ for a nice photoshoot but it doesn’t answer the inevitable ‘and then what..’?
You actually make the opposition stronger. An unintended consequence. But the people in the circus don’t care as long as the moneytrain keeps rolling past their door. They will perform their act accordingly.
Yeah, Trump is making the Mad Mullahs stronger every day by wiping them off the face of the Earth.
The Democrats always say we shouldn’t go to war because it just makes the enemy stronger. This is the Democrat way of justifying running away from confrontation.
Democrats and other appeasers are afraid to confront murderous dictators. Democrats almost let the Mad Mullahs get hold of nuclear weapons because the Democrats were afraid to confront them.
Trump is not afraid to confront them.
Mentioning ‘mad mullahs’ in a post= certified idiot.
The writer is misinformed. Iran is only blocking pro western countries. Chinese, Indian and other neutrals willing to pay in other currencies than the petrodollar do get through.
This idea that it will significantly hurt China is nonsense.
DJT is fast becoming LBJ. It will end in tears for the US, subsequently denied by the blinkered idiots and ideoloques.
“blinkered idiots and ideoloques.” Describes you perfectly.
Prove to me where i display anything resembling an ‘ideologue’.
You can’t.
But you need me to be one so you can put me on an opposing team.
Idiot..
You assume too much.
Ah. Perfect. Opinions stated as fact!
I should add: iran have left some spanish ships through. It seems anybody opposing the US/ Israeli aggression and not letting their military land/ fuel is good to go.
There is a clear objective here. It should be obvious.
The question which truly needs answered is why are the Gulf States not helping remove the Mad Mullahs of Iran?
They probably listen to their military advisors who tell them attacking Iran is a bad idea. Trump didn’t and we can see how that works.
You know for a fact that DJT did not listen to his military advisors?
Provide the evidence of this.
Caine warned him that it will be a prolonged war and Hormuz will be a problem.
But of course some random general has no idea about warfare compared to a new york nepo baby.
You won’t believe what happened next…
You left out the word “could.”
Gen. Caine is the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
That’s 1. You said advisors, which is plural. Name the rest.
FYI:
“Caine has not expressed either support or opposition to the strikes; he is merely raising concerns about how a military campaign would unfold, as he is legally obligated to do in his role as the president’s senior military adviser.”
Today, everyone, especially media, is playing Monday morning quarterback and few, if any, have sufficient intel to do a proper job of it.
In my opinion, the time for appeasement and giving skid loads of cash, is over.
FYI, your post did not provide any evidence.
Slacker.
Yes, we are. And love your dedication to remaining WUWT’s peak lie spewer.
Maybe the Mullahs hold the codes to the stashes of eager 72 virgins waiting in
paradisetheir dreams?NO, it’s just one 72-year-old virgin !!
( With false teeth)
72 raisins, I think you’ll find. Oops!
Raisins !!
I’d prefer juicy Sultanas, both the fruit & the woman (:-))
( Sultana, the wife, concubine, or female relative of a sultan )
Each of those Gulf States is evaluating that proposition as we watch and wait. Each has different criteria for their country’s decision. The “Gulf States” is not a single country or a unified government.
They are still performing cost-risk-benefit analyses. It is also possible they have perceptions we do not have and do not see this extending in time long enough for an effective military response. They are playing defense at the moment. There are no good reasons to think they will go on offense in the near term. Nor are there any good reason to think they will not.
“They are still performing cost-risk-benefit analyses.”
Pity Trump didn’t do any, but it’s not his style; he seems to like giving a good ultimatum in the morning … & a different one in the afternoon.
The Trumpers will always say that is part of the plan. Which means they assume that he has one and that it is super smart/ 3d 5d chess etc.
If not they would have to admit the insanity of it all…which they of course never will otherwise that bubble will burst and their pride and arrogance won’t let them.
Well, we are all still waiting for the omelette and just hear the eggs breaking.
Have you noticed this Utopia is always some time in the future? Much like the Climate Alarmists.
‘Short term pain for long term gain’.
It’s the ffin same line!!!
And for sure Trump’s final line when it all tumbles down will be:’ mistakes were made…but not by me’.
I can guarantee you that ( not that it matters).
Well, Trump picked his team. He is ultimately responsible for the mess.
More funds for wars. Yep, pretty much the opposite of what was said.
We have to amend his line:’no more forever wars’…to ‘forever war’.
He is like the clown actor in charge of the sad circus of the maladjusted in need of constant attention and captured by a foreign state.
No one expected it to be this bad.
The only friends he has left are the ones pulling his strings and he has no awareness of this. I can see it in his eyes. A sad but dangerous character.
At least Lyndon Johnson had some brains and background knowledge.
Lord help us..
[ No one expected it to be this bad.]
Some of us did !! (:-((
Knowing his track record & background, I’m astonished that anyone voted for him. You’d have probably been in safer hands with a random wino off Skid Row.
Sadly, it will take at least a generation to repair the damage Trump has done to the world’s view of the USA.
You’re right about the pride and arrogance
(Pride and arrogance come before a fall, but are usually the cause of the fall.)
The thing w Trump is that at the start it at least opened up a possibility of his intuition resisting deep state operations and standard US geo politics. He seemed to back off when faced w strong opposition, the hallmark of a bully and pick on smaller opponents.
But when he picked his admin i knew where it was actually going. I consider his stance on climate policy and migration a healthy change. RKJ and Tulsi were strong additions. Many were positive in the first few months. JD Vance seemed to have some good ideas.
But geopolitic wise he went even further than Biden in terms of aggression. The zionist backers pushing the rudder their way. So, he did NOT end the support f Ukraine and the conflict. Went on a rampage considering Greenland and Canada breaking as many eggs as he could. His tariff stance WAS expected.
It is safe to say that many official and unofficial experts warned about the dangers of trying to force the Iran issue. This goes back decades. It was pretty clear that after Iraq it would be insane.
But..the uber zionists got his ear, propped him up w lies, filled his Ego w images of the King maker and the Top Dog, answerable to no one, as he said himself. Put Rubio and Hegseth in the mix and chose some politically inexperienced ‘negotiators’ in there and here we are, a total mess with arrogance and false pride steering the ship. And constant lying ( 8 or 10 oil ships as a gift by Iran(!)). It seems JD Vance is really uneasy. Like Trump before him he is NOT in favour of this Iran move.
Some voices that talked about Trump being taking hostage by Israel through the Epstein files, which i dismissed, now seem at least plausible.
And that is why i said that nobody expected it to be this bad. Well, some did but that looked like an extreme position..
And you consider yourself objective.
Not when it comes to Trump or the United States.
The reality is that the gulf countries could have added to pipeline capacity crossing SA to the Red Sea but didn’t want to spend the money. Instead they wasted it on the tallest skyscraper and a wall in the desert for the Prince.
Saudi Arabia does have a pipeline to the Red Sea.
There are now talks about further bypassing the Strait of Hormuz using pipelines and rail.