Essay by Eric Worrall
The study authors have apparently never heard of swimming.
Rising global temperatures ‘eroding’ the world’s ability to exercise
Sarah Newey
Tue, March 17, 2026 at 10:16 PM GMT+10A 9am park run on a Saturday in London might seem anti-social, but in Bangkok it would be unbearable. By 7am the Thai capital’s polished parks are packed with people, as the weekend run clubs set off early to beat the heat – even in the cool season, the city’s November marathon begins at 3am.
Across much of the globe, heat already complicates exercise. But as the world warms, soaring temperatures will make it more difficult – even dangerous – to spend time outside.
According to a modelling study in the Lancet Global Health, physical activity is set to drop as temperatures rise – and the shift could lead to more than half a million deaths every year by 2050.
It’s a “crucial yet overlooked casualty of a warming planet,” said researchers Dr Ding Ding of the University of Sydney and Prof Eun-Young Lee of Queen’s University, Kingston.
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They found that each additional month with an average temperature above 27.8C would correspond to an average increase in inactivity of 1.5 percentage points worldwide – rising to 1.85 points in low and middle income countries.
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Read more: https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/rising-global-temperatures-eroding-world-121619484.html
The abstract of the study;
Effects of climate change on physical inactivity: a panel data study across 156 countries from 2000 to 2022
Christian García-Witulski, PhDa,b,c christian_garcia@uca.edu.ar ∙ Mariano Rabassa, PhDa ∙ Oscar Melo, PhDd ∙ Juliana Helo Sarmiento, PhDe
Summary
Background
Climate change is amplifying heat exposure worldwide; however, its consequences for global physical inactivity, and the resulting effects on mortality and economic burden, remain unquantified.
Methods
We analysed a longitudinal dataset spanning 156 countries from 2000 to 2022 using a binned fixed-effects panel regression model. The model examined the relationship between the primary outcome—the age-standardised prevalence of physical inactivity in adults (aged ≥18 years)—and annual exposure to different temperature ranges. Estimated exposure coefficients and climate projections under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) were used to forecast future physical inactivity. Using relative-risk estimates for all-cause mortality, we converted projected physical inactivity into excess deaths and valued lost productivity using a friction-cost approach calibrated to each country’s gross domestic product and labour participation rates.
Findings
Each additional month with a mean temperature >27·8°C increased physical inactivity by 1·44 (95% CI 0·49–2·39) percentage points globally and 1·85 (0·62–3·08) percentage points in low-income and middle-income countries. By 2050, the prevalence of physical inactivity is projected to rise by 0·98 (0·47–1·49) percentage points under SSP1–2.6, 1·22 (0·58–1·85) percentage points under SSP2–4.5, and 1·75 (0·84–2·66) percentage points under SSP5–8.5, with hotspots exceeding 4 percentage points in Central America, the Caribbean, eastern sub-Saharan Africa, and equatorial southeast Asia. By 2050, these increases translate into an additional 0·47–0·70 million deaths and Intl$2·40–3·68 billion in annual productivity losses.
Interpretation
Rising temperatures are projected to increase the prevalence of physical inactivity, translating into additional premature deaths and productivity losses, especially in tropical regions. Prioritising heat-adaptive urban design, subsidised climate-controlled exercise facilities, and targeted heat-risk communication is essential to mitigate these emerging health and economic burdens, in addition to ambitious emissions reductions.
Funding
Wellcome Trust 304972/Z/23/Z (Lancet Countdown Latin America).
Read more: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(25)00472-3/fulltext
This has got to be one of the most absurd climate studies I’ve ever reviewed.
People don’t give up on physical activity during hot weather, they change their physical activity. As the weather warms, football gives way to Baseball or Cricket or swimming or building sand castles or whatever. People spend more time at the beach, jumping in the water to cool off when they overheat. In Thailand, they host the marathon a few hours early, to avoid the daytime heat.
People adapt to conditions.
India and Africa are good examples. Cricket is pretty much the national sport of India, and parts of tropical Africa and the Caribbean – I’ve never met an Indian who can’t tell you their half dozen favourite players, or everything which is happening in the latest T20 series. Even in the hottest weather, Indians are out playing cricket, because like Baseball, Cricket is a game well suited to summer heat.
The only time I’ve ever seen people reluctant to go outside is when it is freezing cold or raining.
More nice weather will encourage physical activity, not diminish it.
