Essay by Eric Worrall
h/t maurmike: “… The Trump administration’s efforts to boost oil and natural gas production and suppress renewable energy … were enough to postpone the plateau …”
TURNING POINT
Global greenhouse emissions will soon flatten or decline—a historic moment driven by China’s surge in renewable energy
21 NOV 2025 2:45 PM ET
BYPAUL VOOSEN…
To arrest warming, humanity will have to quickly drive the emissions curve down to zero. … “If it doesn’t stop going up, we’re shot.”
…
… “There’s a long history of people saying we’ve reached peak emissions,” Andrew says.
So far, they’ve always been wrong.
…
With peak carbon emerging as a possibility, the Climate TRACE team, at its July meeting, tried to identify sectors where emissions were down …
…
BY SEPTEMBER, the Climate TRACE team was all but certain: Global CO2 emissions this year would once again inch up just a bit and the world would miss peak carbon. “It feels like the warmup for a bigger story later,” McCormick says.
It appeared the Trump administration’s efforts to boost oil and natural gas production and suppress renewable energy in the U.S., although accounting for just a sliver of global CO2 output, were enough to postpone the plateau, McCormick said in a call at the time. “The margin does look like U.S. politics more than explains it.”
…
Even when human emissions peak, “natural” sources of greenhouse gases, aided and abetted by anthropogenic warming, will grow: Forest fires, thawing permafrost, and warming tropical swamps could delay a true peak in carbon emissions for years, if not longer. …
…
Read more: https://www.science.org/content/article/global-carbon-emissions-will-soon-flatten-or-decline
What a bunch of dial watchers. President Trump isn’t “suppressing” renewable energy, without massive government support renewable energy collapses by itself under its own commercial absurdity.
We also won’t be “shot” if emissions continue to rise, because the other way researchers have been wrong is the continuous stream of doomsday predictions, dating back to 1989.
Even if the world does warm, there is no evidence a warmer planet would hurt humans, quite the opposite. Our monkey ancestors first appeared in the fossil record when the world was 5-8C hotter than today, and colonised forests all the way to Greenland, only retreating when the return of colder conditions drove them from their new homes. If a bunch of monkeys with brains the size of match boxes could thrive in such conditions, I’m sure we could manage.
The world today is far from the benign hothouse world our monkey ancestors knew, and is not in any sense overheating. Our world has been locked in the Late Cenzoic Ice Age for the last 34 million years, one of only a handful of extreme cooling events which can be identified in the geological record of the last billion years. The immense geological forcings which are keeping our planet in the ice box are not going to overturned by burning a bit of coal.
Will emissions peak in the near future? I suspect everyone, including likely me, is underestimating the impact of AI. Yes the current AI boom is a bubble which will pop, but AI isn’t going away, any more than Amazon’s web store went away after the DotCom Bust. As new consumer AI devices emerge, automatic vacuum cleaners which don’t get stuck under the sofa, automatic garden tools which are actually useful, and machines which eliminate household chores, CO2 emissions and AI energy use are going to surge like nothing the world has ever seen before.
Blaming Trump for the failures of the COP
reductions is reminiscent of Stalinists blaming “wreckers” for the latest failure in the Five Year Plan.
“accounting for just a sliver of global CO2 output,”
So, the slight increase in US CO2 is by itself responsible for the lack of a “plateau,” not the increases from China, India, Indonesia, etc.
Apparently, Trump and CO2 have one thing in common. They cause everything.
President Trump’s Fault CO2 Emissions Are Still Rising
And even if… 🥳
See above. CO” is a good gas. Man made quantities are harmless.
Story tip : German court slaps down climate activists. https://europeanconservative.com/articles/news-corner/lufthansa-climate-activists-lawsuit-ruling-one-million-euros-damages-legal-costs/
Do you remember?
‘Two Years as a Climate Activist, 4m Euros in Debt’
Judith Beadle has glued herself to surfaces, endured painful holds, and committed crimes. In the fight against climate change, she has risked a great deal—and lost almost everything.
Mental case or too much illegal drugs?
Both are becoming more common, partly because education of children is falling to horribly low standards that are often built into packages sold to schools as captive clients to replace what teachers used to do better.
Geoff S
The only mention of China is in the context of crediting them for a flattening or decline. Crock.
It seems that there is no model and prediction that these people can ever get right.
Even the most constant and obvious things that have been going on for decades and centuries
will be messed up in favor of the great narrative by making predictions that completely ignore obvious trends.
And no – neither Trump,nor Putin or Hitler have the ability to influence the level of emissions that much within a few months.
Things have to be planned,built and started etc. before any relevant increase can happen.
On the other hand China and India account for almost 90% of new coal power plants this year.
And Chinese buying 30% more cars now than in 2020
while Americans buy less than they did 20 years ago ,
may give us a hint that 3 billion asian people have more impact on co2 emissions than a single Trump.
But that’s a wild guess on my side as I’m no expert.
“President Trump isn’t “suppressing” renewable energy, without massive government support renewable energy collapses by itself under its own commercial absurdity.”
Perhaps there is a bit of suppression, a good thing, concerning offshore wind. Yes, that is what a vote for Trump was intended to do.
“To arrest warming, humanity will have to quickly drive the emissions curve down to zero. … “If it doesn’t stop going up, we’re shot.””
I’ve tried to be helpful to quantify the effectiveness of trying to “drive the emissions curve down to zero” for all those who truly believe it would work:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1knv0YdUyIgyR9Mwk3jGJwccIGHv38J33/view?usp=drive_link
There. See the thickness of the “zero” tick on the vertical scale? The “net zero” idea proposes to apply a mitigating influence on the “climate” system that is a small fraction of that value in W/m^2.
It may take a few more years for this to be more widely re-discovered, but the atmosphere operates as the compressible working fluid of its own circulation. Lorenz described what happens as a consequence. ERA5 computes it. The radiative influence of even 2XCO2 is vanishingly weak when considered in the proper context of dynamic energy conversion.
More here as a full explanation.
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1PDJP3F3rteoP99lR53YKp2fzuaza7Niz?usp=drive_link
Thank you for your attention to this matter.
“but the atmosphere operates as the compressible working fluid of its own circulation.”
FINALLY someone gets it !! 🙂
CO2 is little more than a flea on an elephant’s back end.
My lilies and roses would like more CO2.
Speaking of “impact of AI”
this from The Babylon Bee –
Experts Say AI Could Replace The Jobs Of Not Only Humans, But Also Lawyers
Every day I check my Bee mail first and then off to Steve Kruiser’s ‘Everything’s not awful’ fun stuff on the morning briefing page at PJM.
Preventive maintenance for my sanity.
https://www.damiencharlotin.com/hallucinations/?sort_by=-date&states=USA&period_idx=0
This database tracks legal decisions1 in cases where generative AI produced hallucinated content – typically fake citations, but also other types of AI-generated arguments. It does not track the (necessarily wider) universe of all fake citations or use of AI in court filings.
btw, I know what The Babylon Bee is 👍
AI is alienating children from their parents, and enabling children to commit suicide, and lying about innocent people, accusing them of crimes they never committed, and on and on.
There are a lot of reasons to be very wary of AI. It is not the cure to all ills.
An AI Perry Mason just wouldn’t be the same.
(Would GalBot replace Della Street?) 😎
TDS. Temp Derangement Syndrome.
Not to be confused with Trump Derangement Syndrome.
(Although, in this case, they do overlap.)
Do you really believe Trump is suffering from TDS?
We know you are. !
Thank you, now I know what I’m dealing with, I’ll keep it simple from now on, so you might catch on.
I am not a Trump supporter, but any degrading of the environment is in fact OUR collective fault. Trump might spout a lot of hot air, but it will have little effect on the climate.
What degrading? The world is growing measurably greener so the environment is growing more benign for life.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/06/06/global-greening-from-higher-co2-hits-striking-new-heights-but-the-mainstream-media-wont-tell-you-about-it/
Eric, in case you have missed it we have seas of floating plastic, toxic seepage from landfill, in some areas a decline in potable water. Added to this many are facing a food shortage and you think all is well?
Please tell me more about food shortage,
as all statistics,totally debunking the climate crisis narrative, show that food production is increasing( despite efforts to reduce farming, mass culling of chicken),
and absolutely no efforts by the believers to increase food production capacities to counter climate crisis.
Plastic? – true.
But George Carlin said everything that need to be said about this decades ago.
Lack of Water?- where are all the dams and desalination plants and pipeline that are a must if someone believes in AGW to counter the negative effects?
“Please tell me about the food shortage” well to start with a food shortage isn’t’ just about production, it is also about distribution, which to some degree is related to cost. Which is why I mentioned “many are facing a food shortage”, I hope that clarifies the issue?
And, of course, food distribution Cost is Most influenced directly by Energy Cost. Higher energy prices in the distribution chain, higher food prices. FF energy costs far less.
The only places where food distribution is problematic, is in those areas where governments are interfering with it. Usually for political reasons.
All I see are fat people.
Carlin was truly a sage. “Ask the people frozen in lava in Pompeii if they feel like a threat to the planet today.”
Jon,
Could you try to place concerns in perspective and concentrate on the big ones?
Since the western world was conned by propaganda to give “conservation of the environment” a God-like status, many trivial concerns have suddenly assumed importance quite at odds with reality.
For example, the deadly status wrongly given to many environmental toxins is not real, when compared to the numbers of people hospitalized or killed by the alleged toxin.
Do not let yourself be worried by propaganda that is false. Geoff S
Perhaps you could highlight some of issues you see as “trivial concerns”?
Then we could all see what you regard as “the big ones”, I await your response.
The big ones all generally involve government and the use of force to implement policy. Just about all of our problems would be made smaller by less of it.
And with a food shortage as stated…
Why tear down rainforests to plant palm oil?
Why turn produce into fuel when it could feed people?
Why diminish crop potential by eliminating FF derived fertilizer?
Why eliminate airable crop land by covering it with useless Subsidy Farms?
Why spend Trillions tilting at Wind Turbines that produce nothing 60% of the Year?
Why spend Trillions on Solar Panels that produce nothing usable for 18 hours every day?
Perhaps if you woke up and joined the real world.
There never were seas of floating plastic, that has always been nothing more than a myth.
Please list the places where toxins are leaking from landfills. It isn’t happening anywhere in the developed world. If it is happening in the developing world, that’s a problem that is easily solve able.
Shortages of potable water, only happening because in a few areas demand exceeds supply. It’s also easily solvable by using water more efficiently as well as de-desalinization.
The only places where there are food shortages, are places where government actions are causing it.
Every thing you have stated relates to GROWTH and for that I thank you.
The fact that you limit yourself to “the developed world” yet claim it is “easily solvable” suggest you know nothing! No not surprised.
So you accept there is a water shortage, but again claiming it is :easily solvable”, although you seem to admit such a shortage is a result of “demand exceeding supply” that’s a result of GROWTH isn’t it?
Growth is the reason why we have the wealth to deal with these non-issues.
If you want to solve the few pollution problems that still exist, the only option is growth and the wealth that comes with it.
Yes, lots of water is wasted because it is cheap. If water were to become truly scarce, then it would get more expensive and less of it would be wasted.
Basic economics.
I’m guessing you are one of those people who actually believes that doubling GDP means doubling trash.
I’d suggest it depends on how you doubled the GDP, some ways would be good and some would be detrimental, remember bnice2000 may be reading this, so keep it simple.
Ahh misanthrope spotted.
Whoa, a Traitor Joe Dementia supporter! Whoops. I mean Camel-a. Or is it Nanny Pelosi? Al Gorilla? I mean, since it’s so important for you to state publicly in a boomer-esque fashion that you Do Not, repeat Do Not support Trump, please pray tell us whom is it in the Leftish pantheon that you Do support? Inquiring minds etc.
Seeing as you asked, I am not a supporter of any particular political persuasion. The simple fact, is people get the governments they vote for and America got Trump.
Places suffering water shortages are mostly having problems because their kleptocratic leaders stole the water budget. Pollution is a problem limited to small localised areas. As for floating garbage, I live near the shore of the Pacific Ocean, I’ve yet to see that big pile of garbage greens claim is out there.
Eric, it is good to see you accept some suffer water shortages and I am equally pleased you don’t have to live in a polluted area, but sadly some do.
Potable water shortage is a political decision not to allow engineers to the necessary work to ensure supply.
Absolutely correct. All it takes to increase water supply is political will and money, the engineering is already available. I speak as a civil engineer with 60 years of experience including a great deal of water supply experience; storage, treatment and distribution. The water hasn’t gone anywhere.
A couple of points.
The water hasn’t gone anywhere, while true on the surface, water diversions have taken place. A non-issue in and of itself.
The water hasn’t gone anywhere. True but the population and industrial demands on the water supply have increased. Since it was not properly addressed, this created localized shortages.
Elsewise, I concur.
Typical non-answer from someone who’s only interest is muddying the water.
If you want to solve pollution, the only answer is growth.
“If you want to solve pollution, the only answer is growth.”
I disagree. Neither growth nor degrowth solve the problem.
Solving pollution problems requires behavioral modifications on all levels from individual to governments and corporations.
The technology is there. Is the will to tackle this? That is the real problem.
There was one, repeat one, floating “island” of plastic, in the Pacific as I recall.
Volunteers cleaned it up.
There is a case of a sea floor/cavern area that is covered with plastic waste.
Those are the only cases I know of.
Yes, because America VOTED FOR TRUMP! Smart Americans!
If you vote, you might get the government you want.
If you don’t vote, you will get the Government you Deserve!
“and America got Trump.”
And aren’t they oh so lucky that happened.
They could have ended up with the Kamal word-salad, and the Walz muppet.
Of someone like Albo and Bow-wow in Australia.
“And aren’t they oh so lucky that happened.”
I certainly think so. 🙂
Electing a Democrat would have been a disaster. This will also be the case in the future.
The United States now has a president who has set himself the mission of correcting all the stupid mistakes past American politicians have made.
I think he has made a good start.
“America got Trump.” and we are ever so lucky to have him instead of the alternative. 😉 👍
America got Trump.
Thank God.
I am not going to judge your post. Just to be clear.
Every president from Trump back to Roosevelt had/has policies I agree with and those I don’t. No perfect agenda by any of them. Likewise there have been implementations I agree with and others not.
Perfection is unobtainium.
We the people were given a choice and we made that choice at the ballot box.
Some are not happy. Of course.
The first time Trump was elected, people wanted political disruption. The good old boys we had suffered under needed to be ousted.
The second election was a re-affirmation of the desires of the first.
The difference? This time around Trump is approaching things with a philosophy of in order to get real (and necessary) change, one must disrupt the status quo. He is doing that in spades. Again, some I agree with, some not.
The other difference? The country has become extremely polarized. Activists have replaced advocates. And it is extremely binary. If you are not my friend, you are my enemy. If you do not agree with me on every point, you are not my friend and I can call you whatever fashionable insult I wish.
A house divided against itself cannot stand. This is where we are. This is worse than the 1860s or the 1960s. Too many issues that are not having adult, mature conversations.
Jon,
Have you thought about your negative attitude to Donald Trump being caused by his superior intellect?
I readily concede that he is far better than I am in many aspects of Life.
Geoff S
You are incorrect, I don’t have a “negative attitude” to Trump, in fact I am very positive in my dislike of his actions.
How dare a mere politician get between socialists and their insatiable desire for other people’s stuff.
I upvoted purely due to your humor.
Just another dubious case of TDS.
I will give you a pass by assuming CO2 degrading of the environment it not a point of your post.
Indonesia nickel mining and Congo cobalt mining are degrading the environment.
Too much going into landfills when recycling possibilities are ignored is degrading.
Too much stuff going to the side of the road or waterways/oceans is degrading.
There are many ways much more important than regulating the harmless CO2 that we should focus on. Perhaps that is your real point?
Fault – he should be praised for increasing plant food which the world and its inhabitants need more of
CO2 emissions do not matter. CO2 is a good gas , essential to life and does negligible harm.
They seek blame for the demise of the highest cost, highest tax credit dependent, and highest lobbyist dependent renewable energy segments. That’s in addition to the UN and others still running silent on the forced labor in western China making 60 percent of the silicon solar supply chain.
I doubt that your prediction regarding automatic vacuums will not come true. As we all know, nature abhors a vacuum and would never allow it.
Delete the “not.”
Yeah you got me 🙂
That’s OK, they’d probably Suck.
Electrolux?
I don’t know what to say, how can these people possibly justify this?
Delusional people justify a lot of crazy things in their minds.
Interesting graph at the top of the article. It shows a definite drop in emissions due to COVID-19. Yet every chart I’ve seen shows CO² marching up without missing missing a beat. So when are they going to cancel the panic?
It like this quote:
“If a bunch of monkeys with brains the size of match boxes could thrive in such conditions, I’m sure we could manage.”
It may be a good thing our monkey ancestors, with their matchbox brains, weren’t smart enough to realize how horrible a warming world was. They’d have panicked, quit having baby monkeys and we wouldn’t be here. An example of low intelligence being a good thing?
“ with their matchbox brains”
A lot of these “climate wonks” seem to match that description.
I voted for this! Damned right I did.
Not quite 11 months of Trump in office has ruined all 40 years of world wide CO2 mitigation?
That’s a grandiose claim.
Grandiose claims require grandiose evidence.
Though my knowledge of climate this is limited and this site is illuminating and has added to my basic knowledge.
I though find that such entitles as jonangel have added to the sub humorous plot running in many threads and seems to outpace Nick Stokes and the missing TheFinalNail, not to mention the late griff.
I will admit that I do suffer BBDS (Blackout Bowen Derangement Syndrome) and ADS, (Albo Derangement Syndrome). I tell you these medical conditions were forced on me by the Goberment and no Medicare card will help.
Anyone that thinks emissions are going down must be smoking something. In addition to the increase in the developed world’s growth, there are 600 million people without electricity in the developing world. They all have cell phones and can see how the other world lives and they will demand access to electricity and energy sooner than we think.
Cell phones require access to electricity to charge the batteries. 🙂