Utility-Scale Solar: The Grim News Begins (Blue Ridge “Wind-Down’)

From MasterResource

By Robert Bradley Jr.

“… this was one of the hottest and most promising job sectors in the country at the end of 2024. Now, clean energy job growth is at serious risk – and with it, our overall economy.” (-Bob Keefe, below)

Solar construction firm Blue Ridge Power issues mass worker layoff in North Carolina,” read the article in pv magazine. “The utility-scale solar engineering, procurement and construction firm filed a WARN act with the state, cutting over 500 jobs.”

Much of the rooftop solar industry is in liquidation mode, and now the central station “utility scale” solar industry is in trouble. Expect more of the same in the next months as solar subsidies and local opposition (the environmental grassroots) grows. The delayed end of the Investment Tax Credit (30 percent credit) and the Production Tax Credit (2.8 cents/kWh) will cause a rush to the exits before the credits expire at the end of 2027 (with credits at risk for projects not started by July 4, 2026).

Blue Ridge is a primary industrial solar installer in South and North Carolina, with 8,000 MW installed and 1,200 MW under construction in 14 states. Some quotations from Ryan Kennedy‘s September 23, 2025, recap:

“Blue Ridge Power has experienced market headwinds similar to those impacting the entire renewable energy industry, requiring Pine Gate Renewables to dedicate significant resources to support the organization. After reviewing numerous options to find a path forward, Pine Gate made the difficult decision to conduct an orderly wind-down of Blue Ridge Power,” said Pine Gate Renewables in a statement.

And on the macro situation:

E2 research shows that since January 2025, businesses cancelled more than $22 billion of planned clean energy factories and projects that were expected to create 16,500 jobs. Analysis by Energy Innovation suggests that more than 830,000 jobs could be lost due to policy rollbacks created by the Trump Administration’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

The U.S. clean energy workforce now stands at 3.56 million. In 2024, 7% of all new jobs in the United States were in clean energy, and clean energy represented 82% of all new energy sector jobs. However, approximately 50,000 fewer jobs were created in 2024 as compared to 2023.

“What these numbers show is that this was one of the hottest and most promising job sectors in the country at the end of 2024,” said Bob Keefe, E2’s executive director. “Now, clean energy job growth is at serious risk – and with it, our overall economy.”

Final Comment

Solar as grid electricity is a government-created industry. It would not exist without the large tax credits that began with the 10 percent ITC in 1978, which was extended six times (1980, 1986, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991). Then came the 30 percent credit in the Energy Policy Act of 1992, itself extended seven times (2006, 2008, 2009, 2016, 2018, 2019, and 2022).

That’s a total of thirteen extensions if you are counting. So much for an ‘infant’ industry, which was not infant to begin with.

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Bryan A
October 9, 2025 10:14 pm

What these numbers show is that this was one of the hottest and most promising job sectors in the country at the end of 2024

What the numbers, and the subsequent reduction in workforce shows is that Solar (renewables in general) CANNOT SURVIVE on it’s own merits and without Government intervention. Much like anything that is basically worthless from the start producing nothing of value but farming subsidies.

SxyxS
Reply to  Bryan A
October 10, 2025 1:29 am

It would not be necessary for the cabal to scream all the time how great and cheap renewables are if they were cheap and reliable.

Whenever someone tries to sell you something so much and comes along with the best of intentions and praise and how necessary it is, than you can be 100% that it is shit.
And the real problem here is that solar is actually the best out of all renewables as it can help people to get off the grid and has a decent lifespan – but only in sunny regions.

atticman
Reply to  SxyxS
October 10, 2025 4:56 am

Precisely!

Reply to  SxyxS
October 10, 2025 5:24 am

Even in sunny regions it is expensive, deadly bull shit, as recently proven by Spain.
It provides no synchronous inertia to the grid, as do ALL traditional fossil power plants

Bryan A
Reply to  wilpost
October 10, 2025 10:09 am

Solar works well if…
You have no grid access
AND
You can convert your lifestyle to DC instead of AC

Reply to  Bryan A
October 10, 2025 1:57 pm

You better have a big battery and generator

MarkW
Reply to  SxyxS
October 10, 2025 6:46 am

20 years is not a “decent lifespan”
Even in sunny regions it still takes massive subsidies in order to survive.

KevinM
Reply to  MarkW
October 10, 2025 9:33 am

Almost never give MarkW a downvote, but SxyxS was talking residential. The standard residential electric warranty is 20 years. Plus eg while an actual Smart meter will last 20 years, the radio network equipment it needs to stay “smart” has historically lasted about 10. Not many 3G phone networks around from the early 2000’s.

Fran
Reply to  KevinM
October 10, 2025 9:55 am

The 20 year warranty is only good if the company lasts that long. The big collapse of domestic solar will be when warranty claims increase.

Bryan A
Reply to  KevinM
October 10, 2025 10:11 am

Most anything electronic seems to have a built-in obsolescence so you need to replace it rather than repair it

KevinM
Reply to  Bryan A
October 10, 2025 10:21 am

Sounds like a better philosophy for solar plants than natgas plants. (Is every hailstorm an opportunity to upgrade?) Whether the argument fits depends on whether it’s supposed to be a capital-intensive big metal industry or a throw-away little plastic industry.

KevinM
Reply to  KevinM
October 10, 2025 10:27 am

Are the solar companies supposed to be throw-away little plastic companies?
Are the employees of those companies supposed to be throw-away little plastic employees?

The root problem is… 8 billion people: what do they all do? Is there enough for them to do? The problem/idea comes up in history repeatedly and seems to end in wars.

Bryan A
Reply to  SxyxS
October 10, 2025 10:07 am

Yep solar is a good option IF you don’t have Grid Access. But if you do, Grid is the best option when reliably powered.

Gregg Eshelman
Reply to  SxyxS
October 12, 2025 4:27 am

Solar is at its best in distributed, point of use installations. In other words right at each building using the electricity to avoid the transmission losses. But then the utility companies and governments can’t make money off of nor tax the electrons.

Reply to  Bryan A
October 10, 2025 5:19 am

The solar and wind projects are giant tax shelters for the already rich, creating by lobbyists and the Congress, with the normal grifting and grafting, falsely using CO2 as the villain, all at the expense of us suckers, who are TAXPAYERS AND RATEPAYERS WITH THE REST ADDED TO THE NATIONAL DEBT

AT NIGHT THERE IS NO SOLAR
IN THE EARLY MORNING AND EARLY EVENING THERE IS NO SOLAR
WITH SNOW AND ICE ON THE PANELS THERE IS NO SOLAR

SOLAR IS A SUPER EXPENSIVE TRAGEDY

KevinM
Reply to  Bryan A
October 10, 2025 9:27 am

Conflict isn’t about solar power – it’s about “what is a job”.
IF solar power does not work(yet?) then what do solar power workers do to pay the mortgage on their nice house in the suburbs?

Bryan A
Reply to  KevinM
October 10, 2025 10:13 am

Get a real job where they do something that actually contributes to society.

youcantfixstupid
Reply to  KevinM
October 10, 2025 11:53 am

As humans we can have empathy for these people BUT had it not been for the green scam these same people could be working in forestry (logging, drivers, silvaculture in general) or the related industries making things from the raw materials, or the oil/gas/coal industry that would have grown more…and yes even nuclear…this scam wasted TRILLIONS of dollars in economic output and trained a bunch of people in unnecessary skills…

Meisha
Reply to  KevinM
October 10, 2025 1:16 pm

“IF solar power does not work(yet?) then what do solar power workers do to pay the mortgage on their nice house in the suburbs?”

The answer is simple and difficult and the same for millions of other people who get laid off or fired from jobs that have nothing to do with solar….they go find another job, which may mean moving and/ or retooling themselves for different work. Life, including employment, isn’t guaranteed, nor should it be.

Opportunity requires risk. Think about our pioneer forebears and the “no guarantee” lives they led because they saw opportunity–many young lost their lives as a result, not merely lost a job–endeavoring to make their lives and those of their families better.

Reply to  Leon de Boer
October 10, 2025 2:19 am

Funny how neither of these stories have made it to MSM outlets in GB.

KevinM
Reply to  Leon de Boer
October 10, 2025 9:42 am

Raises question:
If kicking a big rock would break one bone in my foot and break three bones in my competition’s foot, should I kick the rock? What if everybody thought that way?

Am I willing to accept an absolutely larger but relatively smaller piece of an absolutely larger pie?
-or-
Am I willing to accept an absolutely smaller but relatively larger piece of an absolutely smaller pie?
-and-
Does solar investment make my pie absolutely larger or smaller?

I don’t really know, but it seems like enough time has passed to call it a bad idea.
Why TF don’t we build big honking 1980’s nuke plants with 2020’s safety technology? Seems so… obvious.

Bryan A
Reply to  KevinM
October 10, 2025 10:18 am

News flash…Solar makes you NO PIE at night.
Solar makes you a 4 hour pie that lasts 15 years
Coal/Gas makes you a 24/7/365 pie that lasts between 40-60 years
Nuclear makes you a 24/7/365 pie that lasts upwards of 80 years

KevinM
Reply to  Bryan A
October 10, 2025 11:20 am

Agreed.
IF power generation is not based on disposable upgrade hardware like cell phones and diapers THEN solar loses and nuclear wins.

October 9, 2025 11:35 pm

“Now, clean energy job growth is at serious risk – and with it, our overall economy.”

Ah, what a beautiful twist of words and reality…our overall economy is at risk BECAUSE the growth of “clean energy jobs”. I would compare the latter like a tumor within an otherwise healthy body (the overall economy). Useless, harmful and if not properly contained/treated deadly on the long run.

More need to be said?

SxyxS
Reply to  varg
October 10, 2025 1:31 am

There is no green job growth.

For every green job they create they destroy 10 jobs elsewhere.
10 real jobs for a phony one.

joe-Dallas
Reply to  SxyxS
October 10, 2025 5:03 am

its not an issue of destroying jobs –

The issue is more jobs to produce the same output or to produce less output is a sign of less economic efficiency. If it takes 10 people to produce the same amount of electricity, that it used to take 1 person, then the production process is less efficient.

Reply to  joe-Dallas
October 10, 2025 5:31 am

Yes, wind and solar, etc., are reducing jobs in other sectors because consumers are spending more on energy, which ADVERSELY affects EVERYTHING

Reply to  SxyxS
October 10, 2025 5:28 am

As Germany and the UK have proven, already for 10 years

Reply to  varg
October 10, 2025 5:27 am

The US job market is doing fine in almost all sectors, except wind, solar and heat pumps, none of which would exist without federal and state subsidies

John Hultquist
Reply to  wilpost
October 10, 2025 8:51 am

RE: heat pumps
In a rural area with no gas-line near, heating one’s house is via electricity, propane**, or wood. Heat pumps are the better electric choice, with auxiliary resistance elements in cold regions.
**Search images for “painted home propane tanks”

Reply to  John Hultquist
October 10, 2025 2:03 pm

I have 3 heat pumps costing $24000 installed 4 years ago.
I save about $200/year on energy bills
Amortizing the heat pumps over 15 years costs over $2000/year.
WHERE ARE MY SAVINGS?

KevinM
Reply to  wilpost
October 10, 2025 9:45 am

The US job market is doing fine in almost all sectors
Check that with Internet search.

Bryan A
Reply to  KevinM
October 10, 2025 10:21 am

And of course…if it’s on the internet, it must be true.
If it’s provided by Main Stream Media outlets, it must be true.

KevinM
Reply to  Bryan A
October 10, 2025 11:21 am

Gotta trust -something- accessible. Is this message board somehow different in character than all others?

Bryan A
Reply to  KevinM
October 10, 2025 2:20 pm

Many people here can be trusted others (BSers) more often than not get called out within minutes of posting

youcantfixstupid
Reply to  KevinM
October 10, 2025 12:09 pm

As someone who has been seriously looking for a job for a couple of months I can honestly say the US job market is HUGE…not all in my particular skill set & experience but its there..luckily a few jobs have popped up recently directly applicable to me so I hope to be working again soon but just in general.

Hell you want a guaranteed job, go to school and get a degree in Medical Physics, you’ll have a guaranteed, embarrassingly well paid job for life or at least long enough that if you invest well you’ll be extremely well off. Similarly there are all kinds of jobs for CT/MRI/PET/medical imaging ‘techs’…unfortunately in many of these industries ‘regulatory capture’ has set in such that they require you to be ‘certified’ which means going through YEARS of unnecessary training and seriously limits the pool of available candidates (which is also why they are embarrassingly well paid)…

Heck, here’s one for you, take a 4 week course to get your CDL A drivers license and become a trucker almost overnight. Tough job sure, but you can quickly make more than just ‘hanging on living wages’…trust me, I’ve had to seriously consider this as a fallback option…

October 10, 2025 12:42 am

Rooftop solar in Australia is on a tear. It is the only energy transition in play in Australia. And Blackout wonders why there are no private investors wanting to build wind and solar farms.

In South Australia, the “renewables” poster child of the world, grid solar is now economically curtailing more energy than the energy it sells. Wind is not yet that bad but it is getting there.

Australia’s urban sprawl and ubiquitous sunlight has made rooftops the clear winner – no land acquisition, no environmental approvals, no first nations approval, no new roadways and no new transmission lines. But the most significant comp[etitive advantage is captive demand, That is where rooftops are winning.

Grid costs are through the roof because the capacity requirement for essential generation from coal and gas has not declined but their volume is way down. Hence they have charge huge unit cost for periods when they can supply. That cost is not going away.

corev
Reply to  RickWill
October 10, 2025 4:33 am

Grid costs are through the roof because their volume is way down. They Must charge huge unit cost for periods when they ARE REQUIRED to BACKUP renewables. That cost will not ever go away. (There fixed for you)

Reply to  RickWill
October 10, 2025 5:32 am

Australia is an economic basket case. People are escaping to Tasmania and New Zealand.

Mr.
Reply to  wilpost
October 10, 2025 9:18 am

er, Tasmania is a state of Australia.

Reply to  wilpost
October 10, 2025 12:17 pm

Actually that is totally incorrect.

The main internal migration in Australia is from NSW to Queensland

Interstate-net-migration-five-years-before-the-Census-by-state-and-territory-2011-2016-and-2021
Bryan A
Reply to  RickWill
October 10, 2025 10:23 am

What would happen to rooftop solar if the rooftop owner were not allowed to resell surplus power to the grid?

Graeme4
Reply to  Bryan A
October 10, 2025 4:46 pm

With an export value of only A$0.07/kWh, not much. Doesn’t significantly impact my home solar payback period.

Graeme4
Reply to  Graeme4
October 10, 2025 6:15 pm

Hmm, need to amend that comment. Export value is 41% of annual savings, so losing the export WILL significantly impact my payback period.

Reply to  Bryan A
October 11, 2025 1:17 am

They buy a battery. Or, in the case of Australia, they use OPM and some of their own to buy a battery.

Household battery sales in September were the highest ever by as big margin. People love using OPM to leverage their buying power..

Reply to  RickWill
October 13, 2025 3:28 am

Whose OPM? How does that work?

Reply to  Bryan A
October 13, 2025 3:27 am

The Dutch are now charging €0.115/kWh for domestic solar exports. That hurts pretty quickly.

Rod Evans
October 10, 2025 1:57 am

At some point the principle of pump priming to get the thing working meets the realty of nature.
You can’t make solar work at night and shining spot lights on them is kidding no one.
when the dust settles and it always does the arrays just aren’t economic options for grid scale needs or security.
Spain has already found it does not work. Others will quickly come to the same conclusion.

D Sandberg
Reply to  Rod Evans
October 10, 2025 5:02 am

The city of Berlin, Germany requires rooftop solar on all new and renovated construction. How less than wise is that?
Copilot
During the winter months (December, January, and February), the average solar capacity factor in Berlin, Germany is quite low due to limited sunlight and frequent cloud cover. Based on detailed solar PV analysis for Berlin:
Average daily energy production per kW of installed solar capacity in winter: 0.91 kWh/day. [profilesolar.com]
To convert this into a capacity factor, we use the formula:
“Capacity Factor”=”Actual Output” /”Maximum Possible Output” =0.91″ kWh/day” /24″ kWh/day” ≈3.8%

So, the solar capacity factor in Berlin during winter is approximately 3.8%..

Reply to  D Sandberg
October 10, 2025 5:35 am

The destructive ENERGIEWENDE was started by Merkel, who has a PhD in Physics, in 2000

KevinM
Reply to  wilpost
October 10, 2025 9:53 am

who has a PhD in Physics, in 2000
Yipes. That’s new info to me. I’ve met dozens of German engineers and most of them were very capable, made me feel sheepish and grasp at post-WW2 worldviews for moral support. Given I don’t buy the easy excuse, political opponents are dummies, the only place I can go is – she must have known what she was saying was nonsense. So why?

youcantfixstupid
Reply to  KevinM
October 10, 2025 12:16 pm

Just because she has a degree in Physics doesn’t make her intelligent. Consider that if her Physics degree actually meant something she probably wouldn’t have gone in to politics.

I have an M.Sc. in Physics too, it taught me how to look at the world, address reality and at least try to think logically and with reason…all the attributes that make a HORRIBLE politician, at least not if you actually want to win an election.

joe-Dallas
Reply to  D Sandberg
October 10, 2025 11:50 am

yes Actual winter capacity is around 7%-9% in germany due to the shorter days. Also should be noted that as heating is converted to electric heat, the demand for electricity will increase much faster than the population growth – Win Win or lose lose – Higher demand lower supply!

MarkW
Reply to  Rod Evans
October 10, 2025 6:50 am

If pump priming actually worked, it wouldn’t require government money to do it.

rovingbroker
October 10, 2025 4:31 am

Every photon of sunlight absorbed by a solar collector/solar cell is a photon not absorbed by a green plant which would use it to split global warming CO2 into carbon and oxygen.

The horror! The horror!
Apologies to Joseph Conrad

Reply to  rovingbroker
October 10, 2025 5:38 am

Plus that photon heats the panel making it hot and less efficient
Giant solar heat islands affecting the weather.
If you want to screw a country, go wind and solar.
We are so lucky to have Trump to put an end to all that crap

Graeme4
Reply to  wilpost
October 10, 2025 4:50 pm

Surprisingly, my 5200W panels don’t seem to be impacted that much when the temperature rises from 30C to 40C. Have noted the output of two similar cloudless summer days, only difference being temp, and total power output not significantly impacted.

KevinM
Reply to  rovingbroker
October 10, 2025 9:55 am

Every photon of sunlight absorbed by a solar collector/solar cell is a photon not absorbed by a green plant…

Only true if the Earth’s surface is 100 percent green plants.
(…and only true if the solar collector/solar cell is on Earth)

Bryan A
Reply to  KevinM
October 10, 2025 10:29 am

Solar works the best everywhere … that no other option exists

Reply to  rovingbroker
October 11, 2025 4:10 am

Broker, please can you give me a link to the proof that CO2 causes global warming?

ResourceGuy
October 10, 2025 5:01 am

I suggest you listen to and read the quarterly earnings report of First Solar on Oct 30 to learn something about the best of breed in utility scale solar and the market. Also read the Q&A call transcript. Knowledge is key.

MarkW
Reply to  ResourceGuy
October 10, 2025 6:53 am

People who make solar are pumping it.
People who use solar are dumping it.

Which to believe?

ResourceGuy
Reply to  MarkW
October 10, 2025 10:15 am

Okay, you win. Keep the blinders on.

joe-Dallas
Reply to  ResourceGuy
October 10, 2025 11:52 am

Absolutely knowledge is Key!

Comprehensive knowledge is the real Key, not the cherrypicked advocacy knowledge.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  joe-Dallas
October 10, 2025 1:34 pm

It’s American patents, American R&D innovation, American factory additions, and Biden/DJT protection against forced labor in western China.

observa
October 10, 2025 6:08 am

Caution winding down-
Orsted Will Reduce Its Workforce By One-Quarter By
Japan’s Conventional Solar Stock Tumbles After Takaichi
Orange lights flashing everywhere after all the reds and the greens

antigtiff
October 10, 2025 6:34 am

China provides most of the wind/solar and China is the enemy of the West. China creates pollution to manufacture the wind/solar and sells the stuff to the west – China sells the west the rope it will use to hang the west. Don’t buy China made.

KevinM
Reply to  antigtiff
October 10, 2025 10:00 am

Could outsourcing alternative energy production jobs to SE Asia have been a way to set up SE Asia for a fall? THAT would be a multi-national, multi-party maniacal conspiracy theory master plan worthy of novelization.

Bryan A
Reply to  KevinM
October 10, 2025 10:31 am

Just blame Trump…like all the other TDS sufferers do

MarkW
October 10, 2025 6:44 am

Loosing a subsidy is not a “market headwind”.
At best you could consider it loosing a tailwind. More accurately it’s eliminating a market distortion.

Tom Halla
October 10, 2025 6:47 am

The whole industry is subsidy mining.

Reply to  Tom Halla
October 10, 2025 6:56 am

We need real mining, not subsidy mining for faux useless, expensive energy which puts us in the poorhouse, as proven by Germany and Spain and the UK

Bryan A
Reply to  Tom Halla
October 10, 2025 10:33 am

Yep
Wind Subsidy Farm (plant forests of Wind Trees and farm subsidies)
Solar Subsidy Farm (plant rows of Solar Hedges and farm subsidies)

mleskovarsocalrrcom
October 10, 2025 7:32 am

Any business that requires government subsidies is not a business but a charity.

Petey Bird
October 10, 2025 8:01 am

The market value of solar electricity is negative. That is a huge hurdle to viability.

KevinM
October 10, 2025 9:22 am

I had a TI solar powered calculator with a square root button 40 years ago. Kids used to point the LCD upside down so we could spell “Boobs” with 58008 as the punchline of a dumb joke told during calculation.
Point: 40 years later, you can still get solar calculators with LCD screens – and not much else

Science fiction book “Wolf and Iron” from 30 years ago had a scientist fleeing global doom on a solar recharged bicycle. Engineering competition “SunRayce” has had university teams recruiting lightweight solar car pilots for 30 years.

At some point you have to stand back and say “Airplanes? Impossible. Humans will never fly.”
Point: Sometimes the Wright brothers strap an engine to some wings and make it happen, sometimes nuclear fusion is still 20 years away.

Bryan A
Reply to  KevinM
October 10, 2025 10:36 am

You’ve just discovered exactly what Solar Power IS the best at…
TI Calculators
Recharging batteries
That’s it.

Kevin Kilty
October 10, 2025 10:14 am

Solar Energy is nothing to the consumer but electrical energy no different than electrical energy from any other generating sources except that it cannot be counted on to show up when needed.

Notwithstanding its unreliability, if clean energy really is the hottest industry for job growth, and these are high paying jobs, then the entire idea that solar/wind generated electricity is cheapest is suspect. Cheapness of anything is the result of reducing inputs to production to whatever is the currently attainable minimum.

These advocacy groups will say anything to advance their clientele’s interests — truthful or not. Do not take their word for anything.

KevinM
Reply to  Kevin Kilty
October 10, 2025 11:25 am

if … these are high paying jobs, then the entire idea that solar/wind generated electricity is cheapest is suspect
A+, I’d like to delete all my other comments and keep this one.

youcantfixstupid
October 10, 2025 11:38 am

“Now, clean energy job growth is at serious risk – and with it, our overall economy.”…was this an article in the Babylon Bee? Had to be ’cause it caused me a ‘spit-take’…surely the funniest thing I’ve read this week…

October 10, 2025 2:43 pm

NEW COAL ELECTRICITY LESS COSTLY, AVAILABLE NOW, NOT PIE IN THE SKY, LIKE EXPENSIVE FUSION AND SMALL MODULAR NUCLEAR  
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/coal-electricity-less-costly-available-now-not-pie-in-the-sky

It is very easy for coal to compete with wind and solar
In the US, Utilities are forced to buy offshore wind electricity for about 15 cents/kWh. 
That price would have been 30 cents/kWh, if no 50% subsidies.
.
Offshore wind full cost of electricity FCOE = 30 c/kWh + 11 c/kWh = 41 c/kWh, no subsidies
Offshore wind full cost of electricity FCOE = 15 c/kWh + 11 c/kWh = 26 c/kWh, 50% subsidies
The 11 c/kWh is for various measures required by wind and solar. Power plant to landfill cost basis. 
This compares with 7 c/kWh + 2 c/kWh = 9 c/kWh from existing gas, coal, nuclear, large reservoir hydro plants.
.
Coal gets very little direct subsidies in the US.
Here is an example of the lifetime cost of a coal plant.
The key is running steadily at 90% output for 50 years, on average 
.
Assume mine-mouth coal plant in Wyoming; 1800 MW (three x 600 MW); turnkey-cost $10 b; life 50 y; CF 0.9; no direct subsidies.
Payments to bank, $5 b at 6% for 50 y; $316 million/y x 50 = $15.8 b
Payments to Owner, $5 b at 10% for 50 y; $504 million/y x 50 = $21.2 b
Lifetime production, base-loaded, 1800 x 8766 x 0.9 x 50 = 710,046,000 MWh
.
Wyoming coal, low-sulfur, no CO2 scrubbers needed, at mine-mouth $15/US ton, 8600 Btu/lb, plant efficiency 40%, Btu/ton = 2000 x 8600 = 17.2 million
Lifetime coal use = 710,046,000,000 kWh/y x (3412 Btu/kWh/0.4)/17,200,000 Btu/US ton = 353 million US ton 
Lifetime coal cost = $5.3 billion
.
The Owner can deduct interest on borrowed money, and can depreciate the entire plant over 50 y, or less, which helps him achieve his 10% return on investment.
Those are general government subsidies, indirectly charged to taxpayers and/or added to government debt. 
.
Other costs: 
Fixed O&M (labor, maintenance, insurance, taxes, land lease)
Variable O&M (water, chemicals, lubricants, waste disposal)
Fixed + Variable, newer plants 2 c/kWh, older plants up to 4 c/kWh
.
Year 1 O&M cost = $0.02/kWh x 710,046,000 MWh/50 y x 1000 kWh/MWh = $0.284 b
Year I Coal cost = $15/US ton x 353 million US ton/50 y = 0.106 b
Year 1 Bank/Owner cost = (15.8, Bank + 21.2, Owner)/50 y= 0.740 b
Year 1 Total cost = 1.130 b
Year 1 Revenue = $0.08/kWh x 710,046,000 MWh/50 x 1000 kWh/MWh = $1.136 b
Total revenue equals total cost at about 8 c/kWh
Banks and Owners get 0.74/1.136 = 65% of the project revenues   

For lower electricity cost/kWh, borrow more money, say 70%
Traditional Nuclear has similar economics; life 60 to 80 y; CF 0.9 in the US.

Gregg Eshelman
October 12, 2025 4:30 am

I foresee a coming massive availability of slightly used solar panels from all these huge solar farms. What will be nice about that is they’ll already have the large early output degradation completed so using them on a house etc won’t require a 15% over-capacity to account for that much loss in the first 5 years. Past 5 years the loss is very slow.

Bob
October 13, 2025 12:36 pm

Wind, solar and storage don’t work, if they did they wouldn’t contract every time government money is withdrawn or decreased. Let’s spend our money on stuff that works and doesn’t depend on government handouts to keep our people employed. This is not a hard concept.