An earthquake near the Fordow nuclear enrichment facility in Qom Province on June 20, 2025 has created a lot of speculation and worry. The earthquake in question, which occurred near Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility, was reported with varying magnitudes (5.1 to 5.5) across news sources. Based on available information from news reports, seismic data, and expert analyses, here’s an assessment of the likelihood that this event was related to nuclear weapons testing or a nuclear accident:
Analysis of Likelihood: Nuclear Weapons Test or Nuclear Accident?
1. Nuclear Weapons Test
The likelihood of the earthquake being caused by a nuclear weapons test is very low based on available evidence. Here’s why:
- Seismic Characteristics: Nuclear tests typically produce seismic signatures distinct from natural earthquakes, with a sharp onset and a lower depth (often less than 1–2 km for tests). The reported earthquake had a depth of 10 km, which is too deep for a typical nuclear test. Experts on X have noted that a 10 km depth is inconsistent with nuclear test signatures.
- Magnitude: A 5.1–5.5 magnitude is within the range of a small nuclear test (e.g., North Korea’s 2006 test was ~4.3), but natural earthquakes of this size are common in Iran, a seismically active region. A similar event in October 2024 was investigated and confirmed as a natural earthquake, not a test.
- Lack of Official Evidence: No credible reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), or other monitoring agencies suggest a nuclear test. Iranian media acknowledged the quake but didn’t mention tests, and unverified claims (e.g., on Telegram or X) lack substantiation.
- Geopolitical Context: Iran’s nuclear program is under intense scrutiny, and a test would likely trigger detectable radiation or international condemnation. U.S. intelligence assesses Iran hasn’t decided to build a bomb, though it has enriched uranium close to weapons-grade. A test now would be a major escalation, inconsistent with Iran’s cautious approach.
- Speculation on X: Some X posts speculated about a test, citing the quake’s proximity to Semnan (home to missile facilities) or Fordow. However, these claims are inconclusive, often based on unverified sources or misinterpretations of seismic data.
2. Nuclear Accident
The likelihood of a nuclear accident causing the earthquake is extremely low. Here’s the reasoning:
- Nature of Accidents: Nuclear accidents (e.g., reactor meltdowns or explosions) don’t typically generate seismic events of this magnitude. They might cause localized damage or radiation leaks, but no reports indicate such an incident.
- Fordow’s Design: The Fordow facility is an underground uranium enrichment site, not a reactor or weapons assembly plant. It’s hardened against attacks and buried deep in a mountain, reducing the chance of an accident causing a 5.1–5.5 quake.
- No Radiation Reports: An accident would likely release detectable radiation, which would be picked up by global monitoring networks. No such reports exist from the IAEA or other sources.
- Context of Israeli Strikes: The quake occurred amid Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites, raising fears of damage to Fordow. However, the IAEA reports no significant damage to Fordow from recent strikes, and the quake’s timing appears coincidental.
3. Natural Earthquake
The most likely explanation is a natural earthquake. Iran is on several tectonic fault lines, and earthquakes of this magnitude are frequent. The USGS and Iranian authorities reported the event as a natural quake, with no evidence suggesting otherwise.
4. Other Considerations
- Unverified Claims: A Telegram post by an Iranian blogger and some X users suggested Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) “testing” caused the quake. These claims are unverified and lack supporting evidence from credible sources.
- Regional Tensions: The quake’s proximity to Fordow and the timing of Israeli strikes fueled speculation. However, similar rumors about a quake in October 2024 were debunked, suggesting a pattern of overinterpretation.
- Seismic Monitoring: Global seismic networks are designed to detect nuclear tests, and no alerts have been raised. The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) would likely flag suspicious activity, but no such reports exist.
Conclusion
- Nuclear Weapons Test: <5% likelihood. The depth, regional seismicity, lack of radiation, and absence of official confirmation make a test highly improbable. Speculation on X and Telegram is not credible without corroboration.
- Nuclear Accident: <1% likelihood. No evidence supports an accident, and Fordow’s design and function make this scenario implausible.
- Natural Earthquake: >95% likelihood. The seismic characteristics and Iran’s tectonic setting strongly favor a natural event.
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Alternative: the Israelis have done the dirty deed.
the good deed
I don’t know what the purpose of setting off a bomb 10 km underground would be.
How do you dig that far down anyway?
Petroleum drilling goes very deep.
If so, I’m guessing that it wasn’t “dirt cheap”.
Well the Americans have just taken it out anyway.
Or, going on this, the Iranians did?
”
“The United States Has Bombed Iran
June 21, 2025 | Sundance | 9 Comments”
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2025/06/21/the-united-states-has-bombed-iran/ “
Story tip
The 32C heat that will be endured by people in the south-east of England on Saturday will have been made 100 times more likely by the climate crisis, scientists said on Friday.
…
This real-time analysis reveals the hidden toll of heatwaves and we want it to help raise the alarm
The Guardian
Cor phew, what a bore.
This real-time analysis reveals the hidden toll of heatwaves and we want it to help raise the alarm[ism]
A hot air plume coming north to the UK in summer sourced from the Sahara? I saw a rare Comma Butterfly in my garden in Edinburgh yesterday. More evidence of The 30-year meridional phase of the natural 60-year climate cycle in action.
32C?
Shirtsleeve weather.
Let them try Port Sudan in August. Easy to fry eggs on the deck but the Europeans still coped fine with the heat and no problems for the locals either.
It’s a crisis they say.
Not only did they say that, they also said that the crisis is what is causing heatwaves.
And here I thought it was summer that was doing it.
LOL, that around our 24 hour low temperature for where I live. Granted we don’t have the humidity. Although that was not true a few days ago we had dew points in the 80F range and went over 100F during the day.
Wait: you are talking about my favourite comic (aka The GroanAid)!
It reached 28c in Sussex where I live, lovely day. 20c tomorrow, a 12 hour mini heatwave.
Wait! Did you feel that? Felt like a bunker buster!
Yep, just used the toilet!
Oy vey.
TMI
Hmmmm, the Navy (China Lake) ran a SNORT rocket sled test a few days ago. It feels like a low intensity earthquake of a few seconds duration. It sounds like a rocket launch. It’s been many years from the last test, I wonder what they are testing – penetrator against concrete is a classic.
A ten kilometer deep test site?
I’m wondering if Iran even needs to test a nuclear weapon.
They can buy the nuclear bomb hardware from North Korea so all the Mad Mullhas need is the enriched uranium to put in the bomb.
I won’t be too surprised if they have managed to make a bomb.
What we really need in Iran is Regime Change. I know that strikes fear in the hearts of a lot of lilly-livered Americans, but it’s the only choice. We can’t leave the Mad Mullahs in charge, otherwise they will just continue murdering innocent people and pursuing nuclear weapons.
Fortunately, it shouldn’t take much to get the Iranian people to oust the Mad Mullahs as the Mad Mullahs only have about 20 percent approval and the rest of the country hates them.
I see where the Israelis are striking the Iranian forces that are tasked with suppressing the Iranian people. That’s what needs to be done, reducing those forces to the point that the people can overpower them.
The United States should be (and probably are) talking to the Iranian resistance and telling them the United States will have their backs when they start their revolution against the Mad Mullahs. The Iranian people want to be free of the maniacs that govern them. We should give them all the help they need.
It will be a whole new world with the Mad Mullahs gone from the scene. Take them down, Trump! Drop one of those 30,000 pound bombs on Khamenei’s house. The Iranian people will come out in the streets then. Right now, they are waiting for the bombs to stop dropping.
The Mad Mullahs are screwed. If you can’t stop your enemy from flying over the top of you, then you are going to lose the war. And the Mad Mullahs cannot stop the Israelis from flying over the top of them. If you control the air, you control the war.
The last regime change we sponsored in Iran in 53 didn’t work out to well for the Iranian people, and word is a son of the old shah is just waiting in the wings to lead the Savic back into action. I’m not saying that life is great in Iran, but it is no more our business than those other 6 countries we destroyed for the Zionists.
Iran is definitely our business. The Mad Mullahs are leading an insane Death Cult with the United States in their sights and they would just love to nuke us.
If you don’t believe that, you don’t understand the situation.
Zionists, huh. Well, we know whose side you are on, don’t we, and this is even more evidence that you don’t understand the situation.
Drinking an awful lot of the neocon flavored koolaid, eh?
Zionism was invented by a jewish dude, in Europe in1897 .Theodor Herzl.
He suggested Madagascar or similar.
Amish/mennonites seem quite happy wherever and dont want to return to the ‘old country’ in germany
If I were a Mad Mullah, I would have sent as many terrorist operatives into the United States as possible during the Traitor Joe Biden’s Open Border policy.
There are over two million “got-aways” that came into the United States and who we have no idea who they are or what they are up to. These people *paid* the Mexican cartels to smuggle them over where they wouldn’t be identified. Why did they do that? Obviously, they are trying to avoid contact with American authorities.
Just as Israeli agents slipped into Iran and created a drone manufacturing enterprise which they used to build and arm drones and then used these drones to knock out essential defense facilities and weapons of the Mad Mullahs.
Iranian agents could very easily do the same thing in the United States. Probably do so, much easier than trying to do the same thing in totalitarian Iran.
So what are the chances that Iranian terrorists will hit the White House with a drone attack? I would say they are not zero. And I think we have no defense against these drones if they were launched in an attack. The White House might have some special protection, I don’t know, but all our other infrastructure and people are vulnerable to this kind of attack. We have no defense. The Chicoms could do the very same thing. Tens of thousands of military-aged Chinese males entered the United States illegally during Traitor Biden’s four years. I wonder if any of them had drone warfare training?
I see where the Ukranians are using 12-gauge shotguns as one of their anti-drone weapons now. Perhaps the troops guarding the White House should get themselves some “street sweepers” just in case.
Definition:
AI Overview
The “Street Sweeper” is a slang term for a type of 12-gauge shotgun with a revolving cylinder, originally the Armsel Striker. It was designed for military and riot control purposes, but due to its high capacity and rapid firing capability, it was deemed a “destructive device” by the ATF in 1994 and is heavily regulated.”
“Experts on X have noted that a 10 km depth is inconsistent with nuclear test signatures.”
It doesn’t take an expert on X to know that. I’m glad I didn’t bother to check my seismograph to see if I caught it (or more sensibly, other RaspberryShake units closer to the epicenter).
I’d be more interested in seismic maps of faults and past earthquake in the mideast than speculation on this event.
Nevertheless, I don’t fancy being down in those underground facilities in an earthquake.
best place to be . because of the way earthquakes move surface structures are most at risk. Think of how submarines arent affected by surface waves compared to boats or even tsunami
In light of the announcement that Trump authorized a bunker-buster attack, it will be interesting to compare the times to see if a small earthquake might have been triggered by the attack.
Was this AI generated?
“a test would likely trigger detectable radiation or international condemnation.”
Perhaps “and” rather than “or”.
More speculation and bollocks
There was a 5.5 magnitude quake felt when I was in Tehran on or about June 19 1978. People did not react to it by going from buildings to open spaces because such events were frequent.
This is an example of non-information of a type that consumes far too much Internet space and time. What AI can and will do remains emergent.
Geoff S
Other possibilities:
Iran destroyed the facility so Israeli operatie could not infiltrate and get evideneIsraeli operatives destroyed the facility by infiltratingBut 10km seems far too deep for buried facilities.
This guy does a pretty good job of discussing geology, especially around quakes and vulcanism.
Iran Earthquake Update; Nuclear Test? Geologist Analysis