By P Gosselin
Aroused by every model forecast heat wave
I don’t know how it’s been in other countries so far this year, but in Germany it seems a number of German weathermen have been getting acutely aroused every time a model sees a heat wave in the pipeline 2 weeks out. The media make headlines out of them.
Image generated by Grok
Of all people, you’d think meteorologists would know the huge uncertainties these models have beyond 7 days. But, when you’re desperate for attention, you might succumb to the temptation to take them as being real enough and have yourself quoted in the press.
Germany has seen an unusually dry spring this year. This has likely raised hopes of a hot summer. The DWD German national Weather Service reports that spring 2025 in Germany was 0.9°C warmer than the 1991-2020 reference period. One reason for the warmth was unusually sunny weather. Spring 2025 in Germany saw 695 hours of sunshine, around 33% more than the reference period 1991-2020 (522 hours) mean.
The plentiful sunshine meant lower precipitation. Spring 2025 in Germany was the third driest on record. Only 96 liters of rain fell per square meters.
Spring has aroused forecasters
The warm dry weather has definitely aroused many of Germany’s weathermen, who are now caught up in full blown record-heatwave summertime fantasies. Lost from memory are the months of heavy rainfall seen from late 2023 to the end of 2024.
Over at German Weather Channel here, Jan Schenk suddenly warned of “a 100-year summer” with temps soaring to 40°C in Germany. “One of the hottest summers ever is in the cards at 70 to 100%.”… “The previous summer of the century in 2003 could soon be replaced.” … “Over the course of the summer, a heat dome will form over south-eastern Europe, which will also spread to Germany. This means that we can expect a lot of high pressure and sunshine – and little rain. The highs will not stop at 30 or 35 degrees. We can already assume that the 40 degree mark will be exceeded several times in the summer of 2025. And the first heatwave in Germany will already appear in June.”
It’s important to point out that many weathermen today no longer forecast the weather, but instead simply report spectacular scenarios that models invariably churn out.
20°C could mean 40°C!
Over at Wetter.net, meteorologist Dominik Jung said the European Weather Model (ECMWF) is showing a“massive high altitude heat” for June 9, “Down on the ground, that would mean more than 35 degrees, maybe 38, 39, maybe almost 40 degrees,” says Jung.
So far, however, the ECMWF model is showing no such heat for early June. We can only speculate that Jung’s forecast has its origins in overly active fantasies.
So what will become of Germany’s summer? A hot one of course cannot be excluded. But to claim a near record hot summer is 70-100% sure is nothing but meteorological attention seeking and headline-grabbing.
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It’s just the same propaganda in the UK. A sunny and dry spring, which the Met Office, BBC and all other alarmists are blaming on “climate change” and we must do something about it. Most people have been enjoying the fine weather (which is now reverting to the usual cloudy, wet and windy summer).
And far from ‘hot’.
Well it’s the first time in the entire CET that the average Spring maximum temperature has exceeded 16C.
Spring 2025 ranked number one in the CET by average mean temperature too.
Interestingly Spring 2024 ranks number 2 but the average maximum temperature was only about 14.4C, the minimums were consistently higher.
8 of the 10 warmest Springs in the CET are 2007 or later!
I’m a climate skeptic but refusing to accept the weather outturn and manifestly obvious climate trends is just silly.
When the weather trend is favorable we need to rejoice, not whine. 🙂
Yes, schadenlying is everywhere.
Well interestly l have totalled my recording of max temps for the spring months here in Scunthorpe’ North Lincolnshire, and the mean maximum temp for this spring has been 14.66C. Still the highest total max temp for Spring, but nothing like as warm as the Met Office is trying to claim.
Also l understand the reason for the difference in totals. It’s been due to the high number of fine sunny days during this spring. Combined with the fact that the Met Office records their temperature data with electonic thermometers housed in Stevenson screens. Which typically overstate the daytime maximum temperatures during fine sunny weather by anything between 1C to 3C. This been especially the case when these thermometers are housed in smaller or poorly maintained Stevenson screens.
Ray Sanders has shown that a large proportion of Met sites are basically just garbage.
Its almost as if they were doing everything possible to create fake warm readings. !!.
If you have time, you can look at some of his many take-downs of Met sites at Tallblokes blog
May 2025 in Britain has indeed been very sunny and quite warm – a very pleasant climate.
We were warned this would happen!
I was under the impression from reading articles here, that a large portion 30%+ of the temperature measuring stations are not fit for purpose. Also that many readings are from stations that don’t exist.
61 F is considered COLD in my region!
In a few days will be over 90F (32C) which no one will suffer from.
Haw Haw Haw Haw Haw…..
Measured where ???
Anything using Met surface sites, which are to a large extent totally unfit for purpose, is essentially void of any meaning.
And I doubt that German surface sites are any better.
Yes l noticed that BBC weather have been trying to link the dry sunny spring with climate change. Claiming that the high pressure blocking that caused the fine spring, will increase due to manmade climate change.
What these clueless clowns have forgotten is that if this same type of blocking had been sitting over the northern Atlantic instead. Then the UK would have suffered with a cold and wet spring instead of the fine spring we had.
As when you look back into history. Then the cause of the european ‘year without a summer’ in 1816, was in a large part l believe caused by persistent blocking over the northern Atlantic.
And also the eruption of Mount Tambora in 1815, when the climate met its Waterloo.
I think there was a study done some years ago that linked the formation of these blocking highs with the Mount Tambora eruption.
Yes, the weather is controlled by how high pressure and low pressure systems are situated. A high pressure system sitting right on top of you brings warmth. A high pressure system sitting to your west can bring cold temperatures down from the north.
There is no evidence that CO2 has any connection to how high and low pressure systems establish themselves.
There is no evidence that CO2 has any influence on how the jet streams behave.
High and Low Pressure systems and the Jet Streams are what determine what kind of regional temperatures we experience. Not CO2.
The last 2 occasions on which the UK Met. Office forecast “a barbecue Summer” we had 2 miserably cool and wet ones consecutively. Looks like they’re at it again; the BBC were talking this morning about a forthcoming hot one and my heart sank…
Apply the socialist motto: This time we will get it right.
STORY TIP – from the Financial Times:
“German asset manager divests Exxon shares over ‘insufficient’ climate commitment”
I only have the headline as I cancelled my FT subscription but German speakers can probably find mention in other papers.
Hopefully whoever is in control of my 401K, is taking note of this, and is buying Exxon shares.
Looking deep into my crystal ball, I see money coming, a tall dark stranger, . . . and wait . . . hot weather coming! Hang on, looking deeper, it might be cold weather coming.
No refunds.
You mean the Sun is nearing its highest point in the sky ?
Spain the same. It is all ‘Climate Emergency’. TV3 is one of the worse.
And the drought we had for the last 2 summers which would be forever because of climate change, is now over after a very wet spring..
The term ‘Swan Song’ comes to mind.
Chop down the forests and replace them with wind turbines and solar panels and get your neighbours to build row after row of wind turbines to slow the onshore air.
Is is any surprise Germany is a desert in the making.
Truly amazing since the Germans have been famous for loving their forests.
We are getting the same alarmist crap here in the UK, thanks to the Met Office and the BBC.
They seem to think just because we have had a long spell of fine weather during the spring, then this will mean we are in for a hot summer. The weather in the UK does simply not work like this. As the same type of weather patterning rarely extends beyond 3 month’s and so its more likely that during the first half of the summer at least. We will see plenty of unsettled weather cropping up here in the UK. As because between 2007 to 2012 the UK had a run of springs with long spells of fine weather, but they were followed by mostly wet and poor summer’s.
Records are not made in the future; they’re made in the present by comparing with the past. Publicly anticipating records that in all liklihood will never be set is just one of the tricks these people use to plant false ideas in the minds of the gullible.
In the Netherlands, the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment has just releases the National Heatwave Plan evaluation
There is substantial attenuation in risk of dying from heat since 2010
However the article doesn’t clearly state why that is.
Also: there is no National Coldwave Plan. Thats’s bad because around 10 times more people die of cold than of heat.
https://www.rivm.nl/en/news/national-heatwave-plan-evaluation-substantial-attenuation-in-risk-of-dying-from-heat-since
That’s why the (real)Dutch go to Greece and Spain and Italy in summer. It is a lot cooler in those countries that time of the year.
“German weathermen have been getting acutely aroused every time a model sees a heat wave..”
If the “model” is the 2 legged version, I can appreciate that. 🙂
Especially if this “heat wave” causes an outbreak of extremely skimpy bikinis for said models.
I recall a sketch from The Frost Report in which Ronnie Corbett is dressed as a masked burglar outside a house window behind which a very attractive young lady is slowly shedding layers of clothing proclaiming “It’s so hot!” before each shed. Finally she is just standing there in underwear, at which point Corbett jemmies the window and says “and your bra and panties”
From the article: “Germany has seen an unusually dry spring this year. This has likely raised hopes of a hot summer. The DWD German national Weather Service reports that spring 2025 in Germany was 0.9°C warmer than the 1991-2020 reference period. One reason for the warmth was unusually sunny weather. Spring 2025 in Germany saw 695 hours of sunshine, around 33% more than the reference period 1991-2020 (522 hours) mean.”
Yes, a recent NASA study claims that all the temperature increases since the 1980’s have been caused by reduced cloud cover during that time period.
It would make sense that if it is hotter, it is also drier. Both apparently caused by reduced cloud cover.
A weather forecaster cannot give a presentation without emphasizing a “record” at some point, nowadays. They present the weather as being unique, when it is not.
Tom Abbott:
My prediction is that the weathermen will be proven to be correct.
Burl, I have a comment for you over on the latest “Open Thread” about SO2.
I was commenting about your claim that SO2 caused a slight warming effect from 1937 to 1940, and after that, the temperatures cooled, supposedly because of increased SO2, according to your theory.
So, if slight differences in SO2 levels can mean the difference between SO2 warming and SO2 cooling, as you claim happened during the period from 1937 to 1940, then it looks like tome that you have possibly found the SO2 “tipping point” where the amount of SO2 causes the temperatures to go from warming to cooling.
What was the concentration of SO2 for the period 1937 to 1940?
In the 1970’s, the temperatures had been cooling since the 1940’s, and then, around 1980, the temperatures started to warm up, and have been warming ever since.
What was the SO2 level in 1980? Was it comparable to the SO2 levels in 1937, when the temperatures switched from cooling to warming? If so, that would seem to validate your theory.
Two things your theory has going for you: It is established that a large volcanic eruption can cause temperatures to cool slightly (about 0.5C), for a short period of time, and a NASA study recently says that all the temperature increases since 1980, can be attributed to reduced cloud cover during this period.
What amount of SO2 causes the temperatures to switch from cooling to warming? Were they at the same levels in 1937, and 1980, when temperatures in both time periods started to warm?
In Spain we had much more cloud cover during Spring 2025 . All the water reservoirs are full again.
“Yes, a recent NASA study claims that all the temperature increases since the 1980’s have been caused by reduced cloud cover during that time period.”
You got a link to that claim Tom?
Data shows that to be fact based.
Very pretty graph… but I didn’t ask you for anything…. and it’s not what Tom claimed and that is “a recent NASA study claims that all the temperature increases since the 1980’s have been caused by reduced cloud cover during that time period.”
So if you have the NASA study, I’d love to see it. You got it?
And while you are at it, have you got the list of scientists who agree with you that El Nino is the cause of the warming (or part there of)?
“And while you are at it, have you got the list of scientists who agree with you that El Nino is the cause of the warming (or part there of)?”
I think that article I linked to above mentions El Nino as being part of the warming.
El Nino is not and never has been the cause of the warming. It’ like a child saying “look these high heeled shoes make me grow faster.” No they don’t, they make you taller but they don’t make you grow. Take El Nino and La Nina out of the figures and there is a clear increase in temperature being caused by something else. And the fact that these two have been around for thousands of years (at least) clearly shows they are not the cause of our recent warming.
But while I have you Tom, do you have a link to back up your statement that “a NASA study recently says that “all” the temperature increases since 1980, can be attributed to reduced cloud cover during this period.”?
I did a search and did not see the NASA study listed, but I didn’t look very deep.
I did find this:
https://phys.org/news/2025-02-cloud-decline-earth-temperatures.html
Thank you for this. It is clear reading this that there is no good news here. These guys are saying that as clouds reduce (as the world warms) the world is on course to reach the high end of the IPCC predictions. This loop is what many have warned us about.
Maybe, but we don’t know what is causing the reduction in clouds. I don’t see how CO2 is involved. There is a possibility that SO2 is involved.
Time will tell. 🙂
Time will tell just hope you and I are around long enough to see. Have a nice day.
Well here in N Lincolnshire we are enjoying a current heatwave of 18C. ☺️
Is that the sun reflecting off all the solar panels that are replacing agriculture in the county? 🙂
“every time a model sees a heat wave in the pipeline 2 weeks out”
And even if thts summer turns out to be marvelously average, by next year, a sizable fraction of the population will remember the massive number of heat waves that were suffered this year.
After all, didn’t the weathermen spend all their time talking about heat waves?
The weather will be the weather except when it’s the weather.
“Over at Wetter.net”
They should change that to BedWetter…
“Of all people, you’d think meteorologists would know the huge uncertainties these models have beyond 7 days.”
7 days?? That’s laughable. In my experience, 1 day is maybe doable, maybe. And even if they get that 7th day “right”, most of the days in between will be way off. The 7th is just the broken clock theory.
In my experience, here in Missouri, the weather wienies (as my wife calls them) can maybe, sometimes, get a 1 day forecast right. They’ve started listing forecasting models-this one says this, that one differs, and here’s one that…whatever. Really doesn’t matter, they are almost always wrong; but they ignore that on the next broadcast. Just all entertainment it seems, with smiles and giggles. Sad waste of a once good science.
Story tip:
Here’s the Met Office making similar claims
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/uk-twice-as-likely-to-have-hot-summer-this-year-says-met-office/ar-AA1FSzlu
Twice as likely than what?
So, high temperatures due to a lack of rain…. on the ag side. lack of spring rains brings crop failures and more German inflation! German farmers suffer from the weather just as much as American farmers. The whole idea about weather reports are to let farmers know what is coming so that they can plan for it. False reports, false planning, kaboom.
maybe 38, 39, maybe almost 40 degrees,” says Jung.
I always thought 39 was almost 40
If it wasn’t for the high-pressure dome, the sky would fall.