In June 2019, when New York passed its Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA), it all seemed so easy. Back then, everyone knew that “renewables” were cheaper than fossil fuels for making electricity; it was only the nefarious machinations of evil oil and gas companies that stood in the way of an effortless energy transition. New York would assume the mantle of climate leadership to show everyone the way. And even as recently as December 2022, New York’s path to energy utopia still seemed clear. That’s when the state issued what it called the Final Scoping Plan under the CLCPA, laying out the simple steps to achieve the goal. Just keep putting one foot in front of the other, and by 2030 we would have 70% of our electricity from renewables.
In the just over two years since then, things have fallen apart with remarkable speed. Yesterday, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum ordered a halt to all construction work on a project called Empire Wind, an offshore wind project located about 20 miles South of Long Island and just East of New York City. This is close to a final stake through the heart of the energy transition program outlined in the Scoping Plan. We have gone from what seemed a clear path to energy transition to being nowhere and with no plan forward. It’s fair to say that New York’s leaders have no idea what their next move is — other than the usual “Sue Trump!”
For some perspective, I’ll summarize the history up to yesterday’s development.
The linchpin of the Scoping Plan was the planned construction of some 9000 MW of off-shore wind capacity, said to be sufficient to supplant most of the existing fossil fuel electricity generation in the state. According to the Scoping Plan, as of 2022 some 4300 MW of that was already under “active development.”
Of the various off-shore wind projects constituting the 4300 MW in active development in 2022, three were the farthest advanced: the 816 MW first phase of a project called Empire Wind, and a second 924 MW capacity facility called Sunrise Wind, and a third much smaller (130 MW) project off Eastern Long Island called South Fork Wind. An agency called New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) is responsible for developing all of the projects except South Fork Wind (which got off the ground under a different agency, Long Island Power Authority, before the CLCPA process got going). According to the website of NYSERDA, in October 2019 a contract to develop Empire Wind 1 had been finalized with Norway’s Equinor, and another one for Sunrise Wind had been finalized with Denmark’s Ørsted. The NYSERDA announcement of the contracts touted the projects’ “cost-effectiveness”:
The Empire Wind and Sunrise Wind projects have an average all-in development cost of $83.36 per megawatt hour (2018 dollars) . . . . The average bill impact for residential customers will be less than a dollar per month per customer – approximately $0.73.
One could quibble about exactly how “cost-effective” that $83.36/MWh was — after all, it was a wholesale cost at the generation facility, and for intermittent power, when a modern natural gas plant can probably achieve a wholesale cost of around $50/MWh, and for dispatchable power. But anyway it was all a fantasy. As I reported in a post on October 5, 2023, in September of that year essentially all the developers of off-shore wind projects for New York had canceled their contracts and demanded huge price increases. These cancelations included not just Empire Wind 1, but also Empire Wind 2, Sunrise Wind, and several other projects aggregating to the 4300 MW of “active development.” For Empire Wind 1, the new demanded price was $159.64, and for the project’s second phase, Empire Wind 2, the new demanded price was $177.84.
As was then inevitable, the state put the contracts out for bid again. The bidding process resulted in new contracts involving a minor reduction in the previously demanded increases. Here is NYSERDA’s announcement from February 29, 2024, stating that with the new contracts “Empire Wind 1 and Sunrise Wind are now on a path to project completion,” and that the “weighted average all-in development cost of the awarded offshore wind projects over the life of the contracts is $150.15 per megawatt-hour.” The price increase had been in excess of 80%.
These two projects are both situated in federal off-shore waters, and therefore required permits from the federal government to proceed. The Biden Administration was fully committed to getting the maximum amount of off-shore wind capacity built as quickly as possible, and during 2024 quickly granted permits for both Empire Wind 1 and Sunrise Wind. The developer of Sunrise Wind was apparently eager to proceed. According to a July 17 release from NYSERDA here, Sunrise Wind got its federal permit from the Interior Department’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management on June 21 and started construction on July 17. At Empire Wind 1, things did not proceed quite as quickly.
And then, on January 20, 2025, came the Trump administration tsunami. One of Trump’s first Executive Orders, on January 20 itself, had the title “Temporary Withdrawal of All Areas on the Outer Continental Shelf from Offshore Wind Leasing and Review of the Federal Government’s Leasing and Permitting Practices for Wind Projects.” Suddenly, all the offshore wind projects that did not already have final permits were thrown into limbo — probably never to leave that state again, at least until a Democrat gets elected President.
And then yesterday came Interior Secretary Doug Burgum’s memo to the Acting Director of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management respecting the Empire Wind project. The Washington Free Beacon has a full story here, complete with a copy of the Burgum memo. Key text from the Burgum memo:
The matters identified thus far suggest that approval for the [Empire Wind] project was rushed through by the prior Administration without sufficient analysis or consultation among the relevant agencies as relates to the potential effects from the Project. In light of these revelations and consistent with the President’s instructions, I am directing you to exercise your authority to order Empire Wind to cease all construction activities. . . .
Today, New York Governor Kathy Hochul reacted as you would expect. A source called Marine Log has a report:
“As Governor, I will not allow this federal overreach to stand,” said New York State Gov. Kathy Hochul . ‘’I will fight this every step of the way to protect union jobs, affordable energy and New York’s economic future. . . . Empire Wind 1 is already employing hundreds of New Yorkers, including 1,000 good-paying union jobs as part of a growing sector that has already spurred significant economic development and private investment throughout the state and beyond. This fully federally permitted project has already put shovels in the ground before the President’s executive orders—it’s exactly the type of bipartisan energy solution we should be working on.”
Hochul used the phrase “shovels in the ground,” but it’s not clear if she is talking literally or only figuratively. Equinor has not proceeded as eagerly as its compatriot Ørsted over at Sunrise, and has apparently only begun preparing the seabed for the turbines (by unloading some tons of rocks from ships) within the past few days. The link goes to an April 13 Tweet from something called SaveLBI (Long Beach Island) saying:
HAPPENING NOW: The Netherlands-flagged Nordnes is dropping rocks 19 miles off Monmouth County, NJ—prepping the seabed for 54 massive wind turbines at the 80,000-acre Empire Wind site.
Hochul has a small problem that the turbines she is hoping to get built are in federal waters and so the federal government is going to have the main say.
The bottom line is that of New York’s grandiose plans for 9000 MW of off-shore wind projects, only South Fork Wind (130 MW) is actually finished, and only Sunrise Wind (924 MW) is actually legitimately under construction. Empire Wind and all the rest have gone into limbo, probably never to come out.
So how is New York supposed to get to the goal of 70% of electricity from renewables by 2030? It has no remaining plan for that. Somehow, Governor Hochul left that issue out of today’s remarks.
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How Very Strange. That’s exactly the same language that George Wallace told his constituents too. Apparently, she has now become a huge supporter of states rights, a position northern democrats have not adopted up to now.
Yes, I remember watching National Guard troops escorting black kids into George Wallace’s schools, integrating them, despite what Governor Wallace had to say. George Wallace’s rhetoric was just an empty gesture, just like Hochul’s.
Bad example of ‘state’s rights’, as racial segregation is a violation of Constitutionally protected civil rights. If New Yorkers are stupid enough to elect the likes of Kathy Hochul, that’s their problem, provided, of course, that she builds her little boondoggle in NYS waters with NYS funding.
Hochul reacted the same way when the state lost Bruen.
Great work in meticulously recording all of this
These projects are typical of green tech fantasies, constant price hikes above the original bids to the point where it seems totally insane to continue and spunk so much money up the wall
Then there is the inevitable delays. None seem to be even remotely on schedule
This one is going to be a major blow to the green blob, because it’s so high profile, and so embarrassing
The wheels have literally come of the green juggernaut. I was confident it would collapse in the end, but didn’t expect it to be so violently
Anyway, no complaints from me
Love it! The collapse can’t come soon enough.
It’s time to put the Net Zero Subsidy Farmers out of business.
Thousands of state and federal pseudo-enviro, leftist, woke bureaucrats will have nothing to keep busy with until lucrative retirement with full benefits.
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They will have to be shovel-ready to immediately dislodge themselves from the government tit.
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It is long overdue to get those leftist, woke Democrat governors replaced with sane Republicans to MAGA the US.
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Increased CO2 ppm is an absolutely essential life gas for increased growth of green flora that supports abundant fauna, and increased crop yields to feed 8 billion people
Net zero by 2050 to reduce CO2 is a super-expensive suicide pact
You have to look at A-to-Z costs, cradle to hazardous graveyard.
HIGH COST/kWh OF W/S SYSTEMS FOISTED ONTO A BRAINWASHED PUBLIC
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/high-cost-kwh-of-w-s-systems-foisted-onto-a-brainwashed-public
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What is generally not known, the more weather-dependent W/S systems, the less efficient the other, traditional generators, as they inefficiently counteract the increasingly larger ups and downs of W/S output. See URL
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/fuel-and-co2-reductions-due-to-wind-energy-less-than-claimed
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W/S systems add great cost to the overall delivery of electricity to users; the more W/S systems, the higher the cost/kWh, as proven by the UK and Germany, with the highest electricity rates in Europe, and near-zero, real-growth GDPs
At about 30% W/S, the entire system hits an increasingly thicker concrete wall, operationally and cost wise.
The UK and Germany are hitting the wall, more and more hours each day.
The cost of electricity delivered to users increased with each additional W/S/B system
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Base-load nuclear, gas and coal plants are the only rational way forward, plus the additional CO2 is very beneficial for additional flora and fauna growth and increased crop yields to feed hungry people.
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/we-are-in-a-co2-famine
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Subsidies shift costs from project Owners to ratepayers, taxpayers, government debt:
1) Federal and state tax credits, up to 50% (Community tax credit of 10 percent – Federal tax credit of 30 percent – State tax credit and other incentives of up to 10%);
2) 5-y Accelerated Depreciation write off of the entire project;
3) Loan interest deduction
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Utilities pay 15 c/kWh, wholesale, after 50% subsidies, for electricity from fixedoffshore wind systems
Utilities pay 18 c/kWh, wholesale, after 50% subsidies, for electricity from floating offshore wind
Utilities pay 12 c/kWh, wholesale, after 50% subsidies, for electricity from larger solar systems
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Excluded costs, at a future 30% W/S annual penetration on the grid, based on UK and German experience:
– Onshore grid expansion/reinforcement to connect distributed W/S systems, about 2 c/kWh
– A fleet of traditional power plants to quickly counteract W/S variable output, on a less than minute-by-minute basis, 24/7/365, which leads to more Btu/kWh, more CO2/kWh, more cost of about 2 c/kWh
– A fleet of traditional power plants to provide electricity during 1) low-wind periods, 2) high-wind periods, when rotors are locked in place, and 3) low solar periods during mornings, evenings, at night, snow/ice on panels, which leads to more Btu/kWh, more CO2/kWh, more cost of about 2 c/kWh
– Pay W/S system Owners for electricity they could have produced, if not curtailed, about 1 c/kWh
– Importing electricity at high prices, when W/S output is low, 1 c/kWh
– Exporting electricity at low prices, when W/S output is high, 1 c/kWh
– Disassembly on land and at sea, reprocessing and storing at hazardous waste sites, about 2 c/kWh
Some of these values exponentially increase as more W/S systems are added to the grid
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The economic/financial insanity and environmental damage of it all is off the charts.
No wonder Europe’s near-zero, real-growth economy is in de-growth mode.
That economy has been tied into knots by inane people.
YOUR tax dollars are building these projects so YOU will have much higher electric bills.
Remove YOUR tax dollars using your vote, and none of these projects would be built, and YOUR electric bills would be lower..
NY should give up on off shore wind and just switch to their DEFRs (Dispatchable Emissions Free Resources) that their plan called for to deal with the intermittentcy issue. Since they’re dealing in fantasy energy systems why not go all in?
…..$150.15 per megawatt-hour….
$150 for intermittent supply fluctuating with the wind? And there are still people who claim, including Nick Stokes on these forums, that wind is cheaper than gas because the wind is free?
The whole thing is pure fantasy. And that $150 does not even take into account the costs of adapting the remainder of the system to accept the intermittent supply.
These people, whether they are in New York or the little town of Thetford in the UK, have lost touch with reality. Electricity is a small part of NY emissions. NY emissions are a small part of US emissions, Which are in turn a small part of global emissions.
Its attempting the impossible, which even were it possible would be unaffordable, and even were it both possible and affordable would be totally ineffective.
“These people, whether they are in New York or the little town of Thetford in the UK, have lost touch with reality.”
Yes, I think that is the case. It explains their bizarre behavior.
I think people on the Left of the political spectrum live in a bizarro fantasy world of their own creation, otherwise, they wold be sensible conservatives.
That bizarre world was created by experts in mis-information, who used the huge foghorn of the government-subsidized Corporate Media to brainwash people for many decades, certainly since 1945.
‘Which are in turn a small part of global emissions.’
Which in turn have little, if any, impact on climate.
Nick and all of his cronies seem blissfully unaware that even though wind is ‘free’, so are oil, gas, and coal. The cost of energy is the cost of getting the free resources to the customers where and when they need them, in the form they can use them.
Yes, wild ocean fish are “free” too, but the costs of getting them to market make fresh fish almost unaffordable.
“These people, whether they are in New York or the little town of Thetford in the UK, have lost touch with reality.”
That’s the way it appears on the surface, but if you know their true goal, the de-industrialization of the West, then it all makes perfect sense.
Funny how they always say the opposite of the truth. “I will fight this every step of the way to protect union jobs, affordable energy and New York’s economic future. . . . Empire Wind 1 is already employing hundreds of New Yorkers, including 1,000 good-paying union jobs as part of a growing sector that has already spurred significant economic development and private investment“. $160+/Mwh electricity is “affordable energy”??? Government subsidies are “private investment”???
It would be more cost-effective for “economic development” and “union jobs” to just hire gangs to run around town smashing windows.
Don’t give them ideas.
A good paying job? It ain’t any good if it only last a few months- regardless of hourly wage. Also, most union jobs result in overpaying for that labor.
Smashing Teslas?
From the article: “So how is New York supposed to get to the goal of 70% of electricity from renewables by 2030? It has no remaining plan for that. Somehow, Governor Hochul left that issue out of today’s remarks.”
Hochul could solve her State’s energy problems by allowing natural gas pipelines to come into, and cross her State, use the natural gas to power natural gas power plants, and Drill, Baby, Drill! for that natural gas sitting there underneath New York.
Like the article says, New York cannot depend on off-shore windmills now. It will be at least four years before that will change, if ever, and investors can’t wait that long and will move on to other things.
Industrial Windmills are one of the dumber things human beings have pursued.
Some of our leaders are not as smart as we would hope.
“Drill, Baby, Drill! for that natural gas sitting there underneath New York”
Isn’t there a vast amount of gas underneath NY? If that was tapped in large scale it would really result in extremely cheap energy for the people of the state- and nearby states, like here in Wokeachusetts which has one of the highest cost of living in America.
I wish it were so simple. But it’s not that they are stupid, it’s that they are evil and think that we are stupid.
The shale gas will be there when energy is needed really badly…
Dropping rocks on the sea bed? Don’t win turbines at sea also need gigantic cement foundations like those on land? (other than those that float). If they do need cement foundations, what’s the purpose of all those rocks? (I obviously know almost zero about construction)
The big rocks are to prevent currents from removing soil near the pylons. Commonly done in areas with currents and unstable soils. Of course, that kills existing habitats, but who cares when we are saving the WORLD from evil fossil fuels fuels.
It likely took several months of hush-hush, secret operations to:
Find qualified contractors,
Quarry and transport the right, very big rocks to a loading dock,
Contract the specialized Dutch ship to carry these rocks,
Contract the cranes to load the Dutch ship, and
Carrying/spreading these rocks to each future windmill site.
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And the US public just found out.
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All construction activities have been halted by the US Department of Interior
Related story tip: Utah, Texas, and Louisiana are suing the Nuclear Regulatory Agency over obstacles to SMR development. That is one I hope does get legs.
Louisiana joins Utah, Texas in suit on nuclear reactors
In what can be labeled as an anti-nuclear legal action,Texas is also suing the NRC for granting approval to a private corporation to site an above-ground spent nuclear fuel interim storage facility in Texas.
The US Supreme Court is now reviewing that lawsuit. A central issue at stake here is what the term ‘interim’ means under the original law which created the Atomic Energy Commission seventy years ago and a later law from 1982/1987 which enacted the Nuclear Waste Policy Act.
The NRC says it has authority under current law to approve an interim above-ground SNF storage facility, Texas says that it doesn’t.
It is likely that all the spent nuclear fuel being generated in the US will remain at the plant sites until a day comes decades in the future that the SNF can be economically reused and/or reprocessed. This includes any SNF which might be generated by new-build SMR’s in Texas.
The only downside is that they have a talking point to use. “It would have worked except for that evil Trump”. Many if not most will believe that.
This is very true. My pro net zero New York relatives will be doing just that. As for Donald Trump, it takes some bit of gumption for a native New Yorker to knowingly take the blame from millions of New Yorkers for the sin of saving those millions of New Yorkers from themselves.
Nice work Francis. Fire up all fossil fuel and nuclear generators. Build new fossil fuel and nuclear generators. Remove all wind and solar from the grid. Maintain the grid.