Essay by Eric Worrall
The Norwegian ruling coalition government just collapsed due to public anger at energy exports to Britain driving up domestic Norwegian prices.
Blackout Britain threat rises on collapse of Norwegian government
Hannah Boland
Sat, February 1, 2025 at 12:07 AM GMT+10Britain risks being left more vulnerable to blackouts as a political row in Norway over power exports escalates.
The Norwegian government collapsed this week following a row over EU green energy laws. A junior coalition partner in the government quit in protest at plans to implement the policies, amid a broader rise in energy nationalism in the country.
Experts said the collapse raised questions over Britain’s reliance on Norwegian energy imports to keep the lights on. Last weekend, Norway accounted for 4pc of the UK’s power, coming via cables that run under the North Sea.
…
Britain is expected to become increasingly reliant on electricity imports under Ed Miliband’s net zero push as Labour seeks to decarbonise the grid by switching to intermittent renewables, with wind power forming a crucial pillar of its plans.
…
Electricity exports have become a flashpoint in Norway, where the public has been facing soaring energy prices in recent years. Critics have claimed the undersea interconnector cables force prices higher.
…
Read more: https://www.yahoo.com/news/blackout-britain-threat-rises-collapse-140740392.html
This Norwegian development is a disaster for the British economy, an economy which is already dancing on the brink of a recession.
At the very least Norway will likely demand a savage price increase which allows the Norwegian government to subsidise domestic prices from profits made by exporting electricity. At worst Britain will permanently lose 4% of its electricity supply.
Britain’s only hope of overcoming the imminent electricity shortfall is to activate demand management plans – shutting down factories and other businesses during peak periods – and to purchase expensive electricity from hospitals and other facilities which have their own diesel generators, who have agreed to act as a backup supply. Either of these options would be expensive for the British economy.
I am not in any way blaming Norway for wanting a better deal. The Norwegian Government’s first duty is to the people of Norway, and if shutting down the interconnector to Britain can help achieve a better outcome for ordinary Norwegians, this is what the government of Norway should do.
But Britain has been caught with its pants down by this latest development, thanks to their insane pursuit of unreliable renewables backed by unreliable imported electricity.
I’m sure the politicians whose energy illiterate policies made Britain vulnerable to external interruptions of supply won’t suffer blackouts, nor will they personally suffer the financial consequences of coming energy price increases. Ordinary British people might not be so lucky.
The Net Zero advocates will eventually reach a “torches and pitchforks” level of civil unrest. The Conservatives are nearly as much at fault, so a general political upheaval will be inevitable.
Politicians of all hues across several decades are absolutely at fault.
The sceptical side of this farce has been warning of the perils of so-called renewable electricity for donkey years.
You’re too kind to The Conservatives by using the word nearly in your last sentence.
Not only exports to Britain but to Germany too are the reasons for the collapse of the Norvegian gouvernement.
Germany’s role in the European energy crisis has been under scrutiny, particularly after the country shut down its last three nuclear power plants in 2023 under former Chancellor Angela Merkel’s policies. Critics claim the move has exacerbated price volatility across the continent.
Harry Wilkinson, head of policy at the Global Warming Policy Foundation, previously noted, “Electricity interconnectors mean that high prices from one country can spread to others, and this risk is prompting the rise of energy nationalism. Norway, which has cheap electricity from hydropower, is understandably reluctant to subsidize Germany’s risky experiment with renewables and bonkers nuclear phase-out.”
Wilkinson described Germany and the UK’s energy strategies as “akin to economic suicide,” warning that governments must lower energy costs to maintain stability.
https://yournews.com/2025/01/31/3184141/norwegian-government-collapses-amid-dispute-over-eu-renewable-energy-policies/
Akin? It is suicide.
“reluctant to subsidize”
Subsidize? They are the seller. Sellers do not complain of high prices.
When you sell something to an external country you are increasing demand.
And if you remember anything about the supply and demand relationship you my be aware what this extra demand will do for domestic pricing.
Or are you being obtuse?
Norway is the seller, and benefits from high prices. Norway consumers may well complain of higher prices, but the government can subsidise locals and still come out well ahead.
The government does not own all the generating and distribution assets so the other owners pocket fat profits and the various government agencies at various levels of government become bloated rather then redistributing all the benefits of high prices. The consumers pay.
A 5 minute shoqwer in southern Norway costs EUR4.30 now. Charging a modest 50kWh car battery costs EUR43 – so much for cheap fuel.
The assets are owned by state enterprises. Consumers are protected by a price cap (strømstøtte)
Yes, but NO! The private consumers will get a price cap for their primary residence. Not for summer homes etc. And, more importantly. Companies do not get this price caps, so industry is getting f**ked! But I kind of think you knew that allready Nick?
Companies pay less than elsewhere.
You are wrong. My company pays 0,17€/kWh today. For my private consumption I pay 10% of everything over 0,08€/kWh. So my company pays double. Today. Who has told you otherwise?
And where else in Europe do companies pay less?
So where else in Europe could your company get cheaper electricity?
“For my private consumption I pay 10% of everything over 0,08€/kWh.”
Sounds like a pretty good deal.
The supply and demand in Norway determines the price in Norway.
The demand in another nation will set the price for electricity imported from Norway. Assuming Norway has spare capacity to sell.
US drug companies generally sell prescription drugs for higher prices in the US than in other countries. But that fact has no effect on the high prices in the US. I wish it did.
Corporations have two pricing goals: Cosider the competition and chose a price that maximizes profits in the long run.
It is very surprising that 40% to 50% of US exchange listed corporations do not earn a GAAP profit. Tesla was not profitable for 17 years.
Also wrong. The weather in central Europe determines the price in Norway. It is not “spare capacity” that is sold – ALL the power is sold to the highest bidder. Leaving the people of Norway in the cold and dark. But the coffers of the government and the power brokers overflowing.
But you said just above that the price you pay is 10% of everything over 0,08€/kWh. That sounds like close to a fuxed price, and will not leave people in the cold and dark.
0,08€ is about 8 US cents, or 6.7p UK
Nick this is not what you said when we were discussing energy exports in Australia. Your opinion seems to blow with the wind which is too bad because it discredits you when we’re talking actual physics.
Exactly what I thought. Nick’s arguments are diametrically opposed to each other, depending on whatever supports his agenda.
When has Stokes ever argued in good faith?
Doublethink?
I’m just pointing out facts. Exporting makes money for the country, but raises prices for the local consumers. That isn’t an opinion.
Need some numbers. Your argument is that it is more profitable to export and then use the proceeds to subsidize than to stop exporting. To achieve the same level of prices in Norway.
No idea if that is true, but it seems doubtful, because they are not stupid, and this question of exports has caused the fall of a government. Lets see the numbers if there are any anywhere.
I tried to follow your link on price caps, but don’t speak Norwegian. I can make out bits of it from knowing Flemish and German, but not enough to get anything definite out of it to form any opinion.
The underlying point of the piece as regards the UK is valid. Miliband is partially depending on imports to cope with intermittency. A big chunk of these imports will have to come from Norway. Whether rightly or wrongly this is a politically contentious issue in Norway and its looking quite likely that these imports will not be there.
Yet again we come back to the UK issue: its 2030, January, 6pm, the Europe wide calm has lasted several days and 90GW of wind is producing about 5GW. Solar is zero, this being January and after sunset. The current gas plant has reached end of life and not been replaced. Nuclear mostly went offline in 2027-8. Demand has risen from 45GW to north of 60GW because of EVs and heat pumps. People are about to start cooking, heating, recharging their cars.
Inquiring minds want to know: where is that 60GW coming from? Tell us!
Norway gets 90% from hydro reservoir plants and 10% from west coast windmills.
.
Because of long distances, there is little connection between the north and south grid.
.
Any draw by the UK during W/S underproduction affects the south grid.
.
A little W/S is awful. A lot of W/S is disastrous
.
The grid is pumped by generators with 50 cycle electromagnetic waves which travel at near the speed of light.
Electrons do not travel. They just vibrate at 50 Hz
.
Any UK underproduction, resulting in voltage drops, is immediately sensed, and compensated for, by opening the water valves to turbines in Norway.
.
A few years ago, Norway oversupplied Germany and the UK, which resulted in much higher wholesale prices in the south grid, low water levels in reservoirs, rationing, aka blackouts/brownouts, and lots of people being p..d off.
It was just another straw on their backs that broke it.
This time it happened again, and the government fell, just like that.
INSTANT DEMOCRACY.
We should have it in the US, instead of endless lying and obfuscation for up to 4 years, or, God forbid, 8 years
NOTE: I lived in Norway for 3 years. My brother in law worked at Norsk Hydro, which provides almost all hydro power in Norway. We talk shop
In New England, we have Net Zero nut cases as well.
.
They know nothing about energy systems but have lots of nonsense to say.
Keep it in the ground they say. All from wind and solar they say.
.
When presented with numbers their eyes glaze over, or they start ranting and rioting.
NEW ENGLAND ELECTRICITY 100% FROM WIND AND SOLAR by 2050?
New England would need a minimum of 10 TWh of DELIVERABLE electricity from batteries to the HV grid
Daily W/S output would be fed to the batteries, 140 TWh/y
Daily demand would be drawn from the batteries, 115 TWh/y in 2024
Roundtrip losses would be 25 TWh/y, more with aging
The battery system would cover any multi-day W/S lulls throughout the year
.
Batteries would supplement wind and solar, as needed, 24/7/365
Wind and solar would charge excess output into the batteries, 24/7/365
.
Tesla recommends not charging to more than 80% full and not discharging to less than 20% full, to achieve normal life of 15 years and normal aging at 1.5%/y.
.
The INSTALLED battery capacity would need to be at least 10 TWh / (0.6, Tesla factor x aging factor x 0.9, outage factor) = 18.5 TWh, delivered as AC at battery outlet.
.
The turnkey cost would be about $600/installed kWh, delivered as AC at battery outlet, 2024 pricing, or $600/kWh x 18.5 billion kWh = $11.1 trillion, about every 15 years.
.
THE ANNUAL ACHIEVABLE THROUGHPUT IN REAL LIFE IS AT MOST 40%
At 40% throughput, the cost of sending electricity through the batteries is about 38 c/kWh, 2024 pricing
.
This is on top of the cost of wind and solar going through the battery.
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/battery-system-capital-costs-losses-and-aging
Norway is not used for balancing (that is done by gas, batteries and pumped storage). It provides baseload supply at full capaciy of its interconnector to the UK most of the time.
Not true, says my brother-in-law, who used to work at Norsk Hydro as a general manager, for his entire career.
The hydro plants have large reservoirs
The balancing is done by varying the flow through hydro turbines.
No batteries are used
No pumped storage is used
Quebec does the same as Norway.
That is balancing internally in Norway: the North Sea Link interconnector is used as baseload.
“Need some numbers.”
Well, it is what they are doing. But it is obvious. Suppose you have a situation where you are supplying the local market at what is considered a satisfactory price. Then you have the opportunity to export more electricity at a higher price, while still keeping the local supply. That has to make money.
Suppose you don’t have enough water flow? Then you can import when prices are low (wind blowing) and export when high, if necessary keeping the net zero.
“don’t speak Norwegian”
Nor do I. Just use Google translate. Right click in Chrome
Lots of data here. Norway imports about 1/3 of what it exports.
Miliband is hoping that the X links a 4000km sub sea cable connected to a 1500 square mile solar, wind and battery facility in Morocco will be up and running without any problems.
What could possibly go wrong?
What could possibly go right with a project like that?
US exports a lot of oil and gas. How does that raise oil and gas prices in the US?
It does not.
Recent US Prices
WTI crude oil dropped $2.13, or 2.9%, to $72.53 last week (up 1% in 2025).
Gasoline increased 0.5% last week (up 2% in 2025)
Natural Gas fell 24.4% to $3.04 last week (down 16% in 2025)
Mr. hoffer: Precisely! I recall a recent article predicted this, and Mr. Stokes asserted it would not happen because Norway makes money selling electricity. His comments here show a profound misunderstanding of what motivates Norway’s electricity customers. He seems to think he knows better what they want than they do! His view is that Norwegians are acting irrationally, but he dances around the obvious- they are reacting to raised prices. His comments lately are just green talking points.
“His view is that Norwegians are acting irrationally”
Norwegians are not acting irrationally. They are exporting power, and will continue to do so. A minor euroskeptic party is trying to burnish its populist credentials before the election.
Norway has already found excuses not to export power at times. Plus it has been openly talking about not renewing interconnector contracts. The one with the Netherlands is the first to come up quite soon, and it is expected it will terminate without renewal.
They refused to continue with the project to build an extra interconnector to Scotland.
Wrong. Norway consumes around 125TWh: there is no way there is sufficient profit to restore prices to the levels before interconnectors imported high prices. Norway’s exports are about 17TWh.
http://pfbach.dk/firma_pfb/references/pfb_france_is_back_as_europes_main_power_exporter_2024_01_26.pdf
Most of production is owned by the state. They profit not only from the rise in export price, but the flow through rise in local prices too. They can give that back.
And they are proposing to do just that. A fixed price for residents of 0.04 euro/KWh, starting October 2025.
Thanks for the useful chart.
You omitted to note:
Given the great instability in the European power markets, the Government does not want Norway to align itself more closely with the European energy system. We are therefore saying no to new electricity interconnectors, and we will not be adopting the EU’s controversial market rules,’ said Minister of Energy Terje Aasland.
Also
Statnett is to continue its work to ascertain what should be done about the two oldest power cables between Norway and Denmark (SK1 and 2) at the end of their technical lifetime.
Whether the EU will readily accept this remains to be seen. Norway is distancing itself from closer ties.
Of course they are subsidizing Germany.
Prices in Germany would be astronomically higher if they had to pay the true cost of destroying their own grid and expecting others to bail them out.
Buying in power is obviously a lot cheaper than actually demonstrating that wind and solar with backup actually works.
They are volumtarily choosing to sell to Germany at high prices. That is not subsidy. Of course, Germany also chooses to buy, else prices there would be higher. Win-win. That is what trade is about.
Norway has been persuaded to accept EU rules on power trading – a decision they bitterly regret – as part of having access to EU markets and supply of other goods and services on EEA terms. They did not forsee just how damaging opening their market to EU prices would be. It was the opening of he German interconnector that did the damage back in 2020.
The first connection to Denmark (500 MW) was in 1977. That surely long preceded any EU rules. They have been trading with Sweden since last century too.
Norway is not damaged. They get high prices for their exports, which earned $2.68B in 2023.
Norway residents are well protected. They currently pay 0.08 euros per Kwh plus 10% of any excess price – so in the range of 0.09-0.1 euros. But the government has proposed a fixed charge of 0.04 euros (as an option) starting October 2025.
As Ihave pointed out, Norway was able to trade profitably with Denmark: what caused the import of high prices was connection to Germany with German closures of nuclear and lignite leaving them a net importer. Here’s what happened as the Germans got connected:
https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/fLVEo/2/
The sellers are not complaining, the Norwegian buyers are. Because the UK and Germany are willing to pay very high prices when their own intermittent generation fails the price for Norwegian consumers has gone from something like US $0.06/kwh to about $0.55/kwh in just 4 years. That’s a 900% increase. That’s a problem.
Sweden also has issues with selling electricity to Germany.
The Swedish government turned down the 700 MW Hansa PowerBridge project linking Sweden to Germany, citing the inefficiency of the German market
https://energynews.pro/en/sweden-rejects-cross-border-network-project-with-germany/
I think several countries in Europe are frustrated with Germany’s energiewende which has resulted in volatile market conditions for them due to the instability of German wind and solar output.
Nick Stokes – determined to instruct the Norwegian government how to run its energy policy and resource distribution.
I think the Norwegian government is running its energy policy just fine. It is the folk here who think they know better.
Mr. Stokes: You think Norway doing it fine. News demonstrates beyond any dispute that Norwegians think they know better than you. “What people here think” is that you got this exactly wrong. Again.
The news here is just about what a minor Euroskeptic party thinks. The electricity is still flowing.
Are you daft? The folks here have not caused the collapse of the government. Increasing prices of electricity to the common folk has done it.
The government did not collapse.
But the government fell!
Just for kicks?
Obviously not, as the government has just collapsed over it. But you know better, as usual, and refuse to accept the blindingly obvious.
The government has not collapsed. A minor euroskeptic party just did what it was always going to do. The opposition parties back exports, as they did when they were in power pre 2021.
LOL. It’s a disaster and its reverberations are a seismic shock to an already shaky EU. It’s yet another demonstration of a failing NetZero agenda.
When Germany and the UK are sucking from the Norwegian grid, prices are high because of shortages.
Both are major net importers.
That draws down Norwegian reservoirs, in winter, when all EVs need much more kWh/mile, and heat pumps need much more kWh/Btu to the room.
That leads to brownouts in Norway, one of the richest countries in the world
All this is happening under the socialist, leftist, woke Labor party, which has been ousted.
The US Damnocrats love Norwegian Labor
This will have major impacts on elections in Germany
People are finally waking up.
They are tired of taking cold showers
Especially after Trump trounced the Damnocrats out of the government
For about 25 years, I have been saying A LITTLE WIND IS AWFUL, A LOT OF WIND IS DISASTROUS
Norway’s exports:
Norway-> UK 1.4GW North Sea Link
Norway-> Denmark 1.6GW ->UK 1.4GW Viking Link
Norway->Netherlands 0.7GW ->UK 1 GW BritNed
Norway-Germany 1.4GW ->UK 1.4GW NeuConnect from 2028
The UK has ~5GW of supply at stake if Norway cuts exports.
That doesn’t even take a policy change: all it needs is a bad snow year limiting hydro production down from ~140TWh to under 110TWh. Bad snow years seem often to come in pairs, too. Then Norway becomes a net importer.
The only thing that threatens Labour’s delusion is reality. Starmer is a lawyer first and foremost, not a political leader; Chagos, anyone?
Who will prevail in the far, far left Labour Party? Starmer and Reeves or the Milibands and Khans etc?
Pass the popcorn.
Starmer and Miliband are Marxists who hate their country, its people, and their culture.
Do What!!!
Say what you like about Starmer and Milliband… er, that’s it, say what you like.
There is no “green energy transition”. As Mr. Istvan aptly put it, it’s all Smoke and Mirrors. Yes, we’ve reached the tipping point of reliable energy vs. blackouts and the people are feeling the pain in their pocket books and daily lives. Even propaganda can’t turn back the clock.
Of course there is a green energy transition or why would we oppose it?
The Transition
(1) Wasting a lot of money
(2) Reducing CO2 emissions slightly
The transition continues until the money runs out, hopefully before the grids are broken…
Starmer and Miliband are worse than Biden and Harris because they are more “competent” at ruining an economy! Biden fought the US oil and gas industry, but that industry won.
I don’t know why this got down votes
Mr. Vorlich: Mr. Greene proclaims that he comments here to harvest down votes, and some here accommodate him. Here, his comment is sensible. Above, he says export goods doesn’t raise price at home, showing profound economic ignorance.
P.S. I don’t use those vote things, if the folks here let me type words then I use words.
The left always runs out of money or inflates it into worthlessness just like a cancer runs out of body.
Why did Norway build the interconnector if it didn’t have sustainably excess electricity that would otherwise have been wasted?
With respect to Germany, simply to make money. When Germany has an excess of wind, they ‘sell’ the excess to Norway at a negative price, enabling Norway to conserve hydro. When Germany has a wind shortfall, Norway turns up the hydro and sells it to Germany at very high prices.
German grid would be unstable without Norway hydro, so Norway charges both ways for providing stability.
Yes
So Rud gets up votes for pointing out facts and Nick gets down votes for agreeing with him?
C’mon people. I know you don’t like Nick, I know I don’t, but that’s absurd.
And that process all works fine until the demand exceeds your excesses. Hydro can only supply so much before you run out of water.
There are limits to all supply and demand relationships, domestically you can only accept so much free power, there is an upper limit. And on the supply side, when the water is gone, it’s gone.
I think the Norwegians saw this as a great deal when it was just playing around with a few percent of the domestic load but now there are numerous countries in Europe who depend on them and see them as a bottomless piggy bank. They’re not, hence the domestic price rises.
TANSTAAFL. Unfortunately for everybody.
“Hydro can only supply so much before you run out of water.”
As Rud said, the interconnectors run both ways. Norway can buy when it is cheap (wind), sell when prices high. That is exploiting storage; quite possibly no extra drain on the dams at all. Tasmania does the same here. There is only one interconnector, and the flow each way is about equal.
So can you explain, if this is such an obviously good deal for everyone involved, why its led to the fall of the government in Norway and why there is such strong and rising opposition to it?
Are they just all financially illiterate up there and cannot see your one sentence explanation of its merits for themselves?
The government has not fallen. Mr Støre remains Prime Minister. After the last election a euroskeptic party was induced to enter a coalition government with Labour. There is an election due in September, and they want to fight it from opposition. Exactly the same happened four years ago with the conservative coalition, which the Progressives left.
Exporting power has been long standing policy of all governments. After all, they built the interconnectors, which are not cheap.
From the Web
Most Norwegian pumped hydro schemes were designed for seasonal storage…water is pumped up to reservoirs in the upper part of the catchment areas during the snow-melting season. This takes advantage of the country’s topography, with steep slopes and high plateaus, and existing natural lakes are typically used, with dams constructed to contain the water. Tunnel systems connect the reservoirs to an underground generating station. It is common practice to have several brook intakes along the headrace and tailrace tunnels to collect water from smaller secondary water streams.
The round-trip efficiency for the 10 pumped hydro plants varies between 65% and 80%. Since they were designed primarily for seasonal storage and pumping of water during the spring and autumn high flow seasons, the pumps tend to have time-consuming and cumbersome start-up processes, ranging from 6.5 minutes to several hours, although recently upgraded plants can achieve pump start up times of under 3 minutes. Only half of the plants can start up in under 10 minutes. The Herva hydro plant has such a time-consuming procedure for the coupling of the pump runner, that the pump is only operated once a year for a few weeks during flood season. By comparison, the pumps and turbines at the UK’s largest pumped hydro power station, Dinowig can reach full operation in 16 seconds.
There is very little pumped storage in Norway, partly because it is 100% efficient to stop generating rather than endure a 75% round trip efficiency for pumped storage, and secondly because pumped storage requires an adequate lower reservoir as well as an upper one: that is often not a topographic possibility.
The lack of a large enough lower reservoir on El Hierro is why the hydro there is mainly used to provide grid stabilisation in a recirculating mode. There isn’t enough water in the lower reservoir to pump uphill to provide a larger energy store, so water often simply flows back down the twin penstock.
The flow is not equal for Norway these days. They get to import high prices and rarely get cheap supply.
So why will the price of power in Norway rise by selling power to the UK? Doesn’t make any sense.
Supply and demand? The UK frequently needs electricity at the same time Germany does. We get dunkleflaute at the same time. High pressure systems are nasty that way. They can affect an area from Shetland to Bavaria.
Hydro in Norway is also dependent on precipitation. That varies year on year. Reduced precipitation during dunkleflaute.
Because it increases demand which then raises prices until the market clears at a higher price level than before the increased demand hit.
If all of a sudden New Yorkers start buying lots of sugar in New Jersey – who knows why – the effect will be to rise prices in New Jersey to a level where supply and demand balance.
Its what you get from living in a common market. The effect of interconnect regime is that they are living in a common market for energy.
The fundamental problem is no wind. Because of the common market, it means that the effects of the lack of wind, a shortage, spread raised prices across the market, whether you are dependent on wind yourself or not.
Germany destroys its generating capacity and tries to move to wind. This raises prices. But owing to the interconnect regime, it spreads these rises across the whole market. If you like, its making Norway subsidize the insanities of UK and German net zero, even though Norway doesn’t participate in them. Or not much.
“making Norway subsidize”
Again, this is just silly. Norway is selling. It benefits from higher prices.
Norway actually has a scheme for capping prices for domestic users (strømstøtte).
Look, the point of the story is that whether it makes sense for Norway or not to restrict sales, this is something that is very much on the cards, being talked about as a political issue. You may say the government has not fallen, but its a minority government now, subject to losing a vote at any moment, which it was not before.
So the question remains. The UK under Miliband is betting its energy provision substantially on interconnect, and one of the main sources of iinterconnect has just given notice that this is not reliable.
The question remains, and it has no answer either from you or the UK authorities: where is the 60GW+ peak supply going to come from in 2030? And how reliable are the sources, if you are counting interconnect as one of them, in the light of political developments in Norway.
The issue is not so much are the Norwegians right or wrong about their objections to exports, its that their exports are something the UK can be a lot less confident about now than previously.
So focus on the real issue: where is the UK’s reliable source of generation, ones they can count on, on that calm dark winter evening in 2030?
“but its a minority government now, subject to losing a vote at any moment, which it was not before.”
It was a minority government before. Norway has had many years of successful minority government. You are thinking of the binary British system. Norway has a multi-party parliament elected by proportional representation. It is not a big deal for a government to lose a vote.
I see no likelihood that the UK will be unable to buy Norse power. It may be harder to build new interconnectors.
Take your blindfolds off. You may be able to see better.
You are fixated on the question of whether technically the government has fallen. Something significant has happened regardless of what you call it: the loss of a coalition partner over this issue.
You may see no likelihood of the UK being able to buy Norwegian power. But that is not the way a significant voice in Norwegian politics sees it and the risk of it happening has just risen.
But again, answer the real question. How is the UK going to assure reliable production of peak 60GW+ in 2030? You may be sure that Norway (and the other interconnects) can and will continue to supply, but you have no skin in the game. Would you, if your own well being depended on it, place the bet that it will not be interrupted?
You should answer my question. Where is the power going to come from in 2030 when demand hits 60GW+ on the third or fourth cold dark winter evening in a row, and when 90GW of wind (assuming they can even get that much installed) is doing less than 5GW?
There is insufficient profit from exports to neutralise the cost to Norwegians.
Germany destroys its generating capacity.
That’s the problem. The interconnection between states is planned for emergencies and not for commercial use. Every state should be able, under normal circumstances, to produce its own consumption.
The fundamental problem is inadequate dispatchable capacity in Germany thanks to nuclear and coal closures, leaving them as net importers instead of their former role as exporters of lignite fuelled power and power from cheap Russian gas.
Here is an anlogy. There are two countries, A and B, getting along fine and growing all the wheat they need. A decides to cut back on wheat area planted to save the planet, and so its wheat crop falls, so it buys up wheat from B with whom it has open borders. This raises prices in B.
B’s politicians then come under pressure from voters, and look at what has happened, and say why are we having to live with higher prices just because you idiots in B cut back your own production? We are closing the borders, no more exports, go get your wheat someplace else. And if you want high prices, fine, have them, but don’t expect us to have higher prices because of your stupidity.
This of course happens. A bad season in A, farmers in B do very well. The economy of B looks good. If the problems in A persist, farmers in B will respond to the higher prices by shifting land use to grow more wheat. B is better off. And of course they are very happy to sell to A or anyone else.
If you generate power in Norway you can choose whether to sell it for export or into the local market. If there is a higher price for export, that will bid supply away from the domestic market unless it matches in price. Only if interconnector demand saturates the export capacity can there be a lower price in the domestic market. However, increased production also pushes you further up the supply merit curve, potentially into much higher cost generation.
So Norway better not change to wind and solar. You know those ‘greens’ hate dams in river systems.
But the problem is that it isn’t often a two way street. With Germany having closed nuclear and coal capacity they became a net importer of energy instead of an exporter. PLease see P-F Bach’s excellent map and table of European international electricity flows here:
http://pfbach.dk/firma_pfb/references/pfb_france_is_back_as_europes_main_power_exporter_2024_01_26.pdf
The round trip economics they had when they were balancing the Danes and Germany was an exporter no longer apply.
The weather may not end up been kind for the UK’s clueless government during February. For today it’s Candlemas Day and weather has been sunny and bright.
Which according to old weather lore means winter will live for a other fight.
Temperatures agree.
The Met Office forecast for a stormy and warm February is certainly looking likely to fall flat. As l can see temps remaining mostly below average for the south and east of England for the first half of February. While during the second half of the month there are hints of a bitterly cold spell of weather for most of the UK.
The Groundhog, Puxatony Phil predicted today that there would be six more weeks of winter.
Maybe for the Northeast U.S., but I don’t think that is going to apply to the rest of the nation, from the way the weather looks now. The southern jet stream is bringing in the mild air from west to east across the U.S.
If he sees his shadow it is six weeks, if not it is a month and a half.
Thanks for that clarification. 🙂
Or it’s bullshit.
Mr. Alberts: Please respect the science! Based on observation, the fat vole causes climate! You don’t seem to grasp climate science and the effect of CO2 at all!
/s/
The rodents emit CO2. Just through normal biological respiration.
Funny how Feb 2nd is almost exactly 6 weeks from the Spring equinox.
So…either…
6 more weeks of winter
OR
6 weeks until spring
Am not expecting 6 more weeks of winter.
But when a spell of anticylonic weather sets in at the start of February then it can hang around for quite a while. Its this what this piece of weather lore hints at.
You can look at the jet streams here:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2025/02/03/0000Z/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-108.05,53.87,422
The polar jet stream is running along the southern Canadian border keeping the really cold air confined to its north, except it dips down into the northeast U.S., and the subtropical jet stream is coming across the center of the U.S. from west coast to east coast bringing mild, moist air with it.
It looks like mild weather for most of the U.S. for a little while, right during the coldest part of the year normally. This is not an unprecedented winter, I’ve seen these kinds of winters before. I like these kinds of winters.
In my neck of the woods, it has been fairly warm this winter with temperatures not going below freezing too much but we did have one day where the low temperature got down to seven degrees F, and wouldn’t you know it, my water pipe froze and broke!
I would bet money it won’t get that cold around here again this winter.
Yeah, one seven degree day and pop! goes the water pipe! Two days later the high temperature is in the 60’s.
Oh well, all’s well that ends well.
Here’s where the cold air is located:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2025/02/03/0000Z/wind/isobaric/500hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-108.05,53.87,422
The prognosticating rodents were split 50-50. NE USA 6 weeks. Middle and west USA 2 weeks.
Flip a coin.
We have a groundhog weather man
Six weeks before the official end of winter it allegedly predicts winter will end in six weeks. Right every year.
Except when the rodents do not.
The Epoch times had a slightly different spin: the Norway government collapsed over net zero.
https://www.theepochtimes.com/world/norways-government-collapses-over-eu-net-zero-energy-policies-dispute-5801964?ea_src=frontpage&ea_cnt=a&ea_med=top-news-2-top-stories-0-title-0
Short version of their story is that Norweigians don’t want to adopt EU net zero policies. But as we are instructed by the new White House press secretary, two things can be true at the same time.
The advantage of goin’ with their version is that we don’t have to see the sick puppy face of the inane Milli(meter)band.
According to the old one, two mutually exclusive things could be true at the same time!
Joe being senile as f,,k, but also at the top of his game.
At first I thought this was an article about Wallace from Wallace and Gromit. Then I put on my specs and realised it was just about wallies, and one in particular.
LOL 🙂
I wanted to post a similar picture of Wallace and Gromit, but I can’t find the button for posting images.
I don’t get an image button either.
Maybe the UK shouldn’t rely on others for their electricity supply.
That would be unacceptably logical.
And so it begins!
Exactly…grabbing my popcorn…
Grabbing my candles and warm clothing
“Britain risks being left more vulnerable to blackouts as a political row in Norway over power exports escalates.”
Wrong!!!! Britain is vulnerable because of its ignorant self serving piece of crap government. What is it going to take for the British people to throw these bums out. The Brits have no one to blame but themselves.
Fire up all fossil fuel and nuclear generators. Build new fossil fuel and nuclear generators. Remove all wind and solar from the grid.
“The Brits have no one to blame but themselves.” Not wishing to attempt self-exoneration, Bob, but I would point out that we have had the Pythonesque choice between “The People’s Front of Judea” and “The Judean People’s Front” for many years. Our entire ruling elite class is so inadequately intellectually blessed that they have totally fallen for the AGW hoax. Successive Conservative and Labour governments have zealously pursued net zero in blind faith.
Unfortunately the UK will require a countrywide blackout with days, perhaps weeks, of lack of supply, cold, dark and with excess deaths before we can rid ourselves of these inadequates. A new “climate denying” party waits in the wings, hopefully they will be prepared.
You get what you vote for. Lying, manipulative, controlling and opportunistic political parties are not great reservoirs of sane and ethical leaders. Time to wake up.
Peter, I understand how frustrating it is to have no real choice at the ballot box. My hometown is a liberal cesspool. My point is that I don’t believe the issue will be settled at the ballot box. Not nearly enough effort is being given to educate the average guy, if we can educate the average guy and he realizes how bad he is being screwed he won’t stand for it for very long. To hell with the political and academic leaders, they know what they are doing and clear evidence that they are wrong is meaningless to them. Educate the masses, sooner or later the masses will hold their leaders responsible which is as it should be.
The British People are beginning to wake up and rebel as the Reform Party is currently leading the other two parties in the latest opinion polls. A major policy of Reform is the abandonment of Net Zero.
Unfortunately for Scotland they have the SNP, socialists in disguise. This is observation not my opinion.
The Tories fell from grace when they made Scotland the Poll Tax test bed. Then the Brexit result set back what gains that had been made in recent years. Starmer has had the same effect in Scotland as in England. The Lib Dems are regional as in England.
So it looks like SNP despite all their issues and shenanigans will get even more votes unless something major happens to change that.
I’d have thought there are a few time bombs for the SNP to navigate: the trial of Nicola for one.
Yes. Naturally, the quality of the democracy delivered is dependent on the quality of the voters and that includes their ethics and education. So it is that modern democracies have compulsory and free education. Essential minimum for basic democracy.
It seems to me that democracy is often taken as an absolute and single concept when in reality is is anything but. It can range from ‘in name only’ to ‘something not yet achieved’. The world has a long way to go.
January 2026 is my guess.
Key word: “more” vulnerable.
This could get interesting in a hurry if the UK is hit with another winter high, meaning no wind.
A wind drought is a mixed blessing as it means thousands more migrants from Somalia, Afghanistan and other backward hellholes will be arriving in Dover by dinghy or courtesy of the RNLI.
For God’s sake get the UK lunatic-left out of UK energy decision making. Net -Zero (in particular) is a lunatic idea now totally (NO, TOTALLY) discredited.
As a UK citizen, it is clear that any and all energy exports to the UK from Norway should (and must) benefit Norway.
Quite possibly – but the article focused on Britain’s problems. I don’t know how this will impact Norway.
“The Norwegian ruling coalition government just collapsed due to public anger at energy exports to Britain driving up domestic Norwegian prices.”
As often, heavy spin. The government didn’t collapse, the coalition did. A small euroskeptic party left the coalition. The Labour government continues.
The situation is quite analogous to LNG exports in the US and Australia. If you export, then if not subsidised, local consumers will find themselves paying the world prices, which they won’t like. However, the country as a whole makes more money. Since in this case the electricity is owned by the government, it is well able to subsidise local prices. That will be far less costly than losing the export income.
I think you are missing the point. If energy continues to be available to Britain, Britain will have to pay more. And that can’t be good for an economy struggling with high energy prices hurting manufacturing.
Eric,
As always, there is a market price. Norway can’t unilaterally raise that, while still participating in the market (else they would have already).
Is this the same Nick who argued Australia should impose export restrictions on natural gas, to reduce domestic prices? But on a serious note, it doesn’t matter whether Norway is acting in its own best interests, what I was writing about was the impact on Britain.
“Is this the same Nick”
Yes. I argued that if you wanted to reduce domestic prices, you have to impose export restrictions, or else somehow subsidise local users (eg by reservation). And as I said elsewhere, this is exactly the choice facing Norway, although at least they don’t have to worry about the finiteness of the resource. All true.
But they must follow EU rules. No can do.
Back in the day, we used to say, “Could the last person leaving the UK, kindly turn off the lights?”.
The way things are going, there’ll be no lights to turn off.
“The Labour government continues.”
But it no longer has a majority, and is behind the rational-right parties in the opinion polls leading to a September election.
Yer, right Nick
The story of how John Howard and the elites sold Australian LNG to China at rock-bottom prices is here: https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/how-australia-blew-its-future-gas-supplies-20170928-gyqg0f.html
If you can read you will see that prices did not reflect the market. Neither does Australia’s domestic prices reflect world prices, rather it reflects scarcity of supply created by China’s insatiable demand. Not to mention the pure gluttony of market players supplying from the NW shelf.
No such a thing as “free trade”.
Cheers,
Bill Johnston
http://www.bomwatch.com.au
,
Bill,
Yes, that deal by Howard was a very bad give-away. But to put it in perspective, it covered 300 Mtons LNG, which is about 3 petajoules a year. We now export over 4000 pJ/year.
Our East Coast price has to reflect world price; locals are just bidders in a market. So is China (a big one).
Which ever way you look at it Nick the market is distorted.
That Australians can buy back previously exported Aust LNG at below current Aust market price says it all.
That Andrew (H2) Forrest has his pinkie in the pie adds additional perspective into how the so-called market operates.
Do you want wind turbine subsidies with that, solar, green steel … EVs … Snowy2 …
For dogs that wag the market tail how about “Turnbull Renewables” (https://www.turnbullrenewables.com.au/).
Cheers,
b
When a government collapses it collapses no matter how it is made up and regardless of whether it is a minority or majority..
Mr Stokes needs to go back to primary school and learn what the word government means. In my books it has at least four meanings and so which one did Mr Stokes settle upon and why?
When a government collapses, you don’t have a government any more. There has to be an election or some such.
Mr Støre was the PM. Mr Støre is still the PM.
That is one of the many definitions of collapse.
Without a majority coalition, the government is nonfunctional, legislatively speaking. That is a form of collapse, too.
There was not a majority coalition previously, and the government functioned.
There will be a new PM after the election. In the mean time, there is no effective government. Something that the Dutch and Belgians have experienced regularly – even after an election, since there is endless haggling before a government can be formed, and sometimes it doesn’t happen without another election at least in between.
And the Dutch and Belgians get on fine. They can achieve consensus, as I’m sure Norway can.
The Belgians rarely reach consensus. The Dutch are also becoming polarised.
You haven’t done the maths. Profit on 17TWh doesn’t pay a subsidy on 125TWh.
I didn’t say it did. The state, as supplier, profits from high prices, internally and externally.
Thanks God, we in France have cured all the cracks epidemic in our aging nuclear plant pipes, with the help of a number of nuclear qualified welders from the US (!)
In 2024 never had France exported so much electric energy, mainly to GB, Germany, Belgium, Italy and Spain.
I guess there is no possibility the French government is operating old plants which should be shut down because they are desperate for money. Surely not.
But what about the cracks in the brain of your ageing President?
“But Britain has been caught with its pants down by this latest development”
They had pants? Who knew?
Mommy, why is the king naked?
Were they skinny pants?
I wish organizations that report on energy/climate would stop referring to the ideology of politicians. This really about old fashioned greed by elite politicians who can make a great deal of money in initial investing as can their tony friends. If there were a way to prevent them from investing and getting government subsidies they would stop so fast it would give you whiplash. What needs to be done is ALL government subsidies ended. Period. All they do is make corruption more possible and probable. And the benefits to the environment are nil. You really have to be a scientific illiterate to support this stuff or a scientist looking for millions in grants.
We need to keep Minibrain away from any decision making regarding energy before he does his homework. He also needs to to put the welfare of the UK first for a change.
It is not just about electricity prices..
Eurosceptic party quits Norway’s government, almost half of cabinet departs | Reuters
So we have the same situation as elsewhere.. A leftist party wanting to grovel to the marxist climate bureaucrats..
… the common-sense Centrist party says…. no thanks!
January 2025
Climate Whiplash
February
Climate Whiplash worse than previously thought
March
Climate whiplash worse than worse than previously thought
April
Climate whiplash endangerment finding
May
Climate whiplash tipping point determined
June
IPCC declares climate whiplash must be stopped, or Manhattan will be underwater by 2050. Subway trains will have to be replaced by submarines. Taxis will have to be replaced by gondolas. IPCC confidence level 105%
The 105% cinches it. Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated.
It’s the Exterminate! directive you should truly fear. THey’re a load of Daleks.
Maybe pay the Russian and Chinese tankers to drag the seafloor with more anchors and solve the neighbor’s little reality spa between the UK and Norway.
Maybe hold down electricity prices in Norway by cutting down and shipping all the trees in Norway to burn in UK power plants. They know how to do this with North American trees.
Maybe they could sell it to Trump!
The relevance of your post is beyond questionable.
For now we still get a Norwegian tree at Christmas for Trafalgar Square. But if they are burning them in their own log burners because they can’t afford to run their heat pumps, that may no longer happen.
In some ways I have to sympathize with British consumers because I could be caught in the same sinking ship if Canada didn’t derive nearly 60% of its electricity from hydro power. In my own province of Manitoba it’s over 95%, the vast majority of which is exported to Saskatchewan, Minnesota and Wisconsin. But if the country continues to be led by the inept and unrealistic Liberal Party, we also would be foolish enough to try to depend on guaranteed unreliability; namely, wind and solar, as we would continue to pursue the mirage of Net Zero. Yet the British in some ways are deserving of their fate because they should have smelled a rat as the Keir administration was never able to point to another country that is currently able to come close to depending on renewables for its energy supply.
…and now for the good news. EV fans have solved the public charger wait time problem-
‘Everyone should have one’: This hack could save arguments at the charger
….while some party poopers remain skeptical of such simple analogue solutions-
New approach for better utilisation of the Nordic electricity grid
Grid Unlock | Kwetta
I had to check the date… 🙂