Guest Post by Kenneth Schrupp
Editor’s Note: California has long been the poster child for bad energy policy. Its policy and regulatory responses to climate change have contributed to energy prices there being higher than in any state outside of Hawaii, and power shortfalls and blackouts in California have become a regular feature of life there each summer. As the state encourages people to buy electric vehicles (EV) and appliances, indeed mandating such purchases in the near future, it has been regularly forced to ask EV owners not to charge their vehicles at certain times to keep the lights on. The guest post below shows that Heartland is not the only organization who recognizes California’s untenable power supply situation.
In a recent study, The Heartland Institute detailed problems utilities face, some of which they have created for themselves, in the push to adopt net zero emission goals. California is a harbinger of things to come if utilities continue to place fighting climate change ahead of providing dispatchable, reliable, affordable power. California’s utilities don’t have that choice with their power supply decisions being driven by the progressive state legislature and regulatory agencies. The rest of the nation need not be California, however.
(The Center Square) – An international regulatory authority issued a warning that California’s energy grid is at risk of energy shortfalls in 2029, noting increased electrification of buildings and transportation is driving high energy demand growth as reliable, baseline power from natural gas is replaced with less reliable solar energy.
“Demand growth and planned generator retirements cause energy adequacy risks to re-emerge in future years,” wrote the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, a federally designated international power grid regulator, in its latest grid reliability report. “With a resource portfolio that includes a substantial amount of solar [panels], the risk of supply shortfall is associated with summer evening periods when demand is high and solar output is diminished.”
The NERC report noted that even though the grid covering most of California, and parts of Nevada and Baja Mexico, has new energy coming online from solar and batteries, the retirement of natural gas power that can run any time of day, regardless of weather, could cause shortfalls.
“The analysis assumes forecasted demand growth of 3.5 GW, substantial resource additions (4.6 GW of solar PV, 7.6 GW in batteries, and 0.8 GW of natural-gas fired generation imported from repowered coal units in Utah), and the retirement of over 3 GW of gas-fired generation,” continued NERC. “As demand grows and the resource mix becomes increasingly variable, periods of supply shortfalls can emerge.”
The report says that the area will not have enough reserve capacity over the reference margin level — the amount of excess power generation available above peak demand to ensure reliable operations — after 2034 unless new planned resources are added. It also says that if new resources do not come online on time, that in 2029 the region will need to import more energy from elsewhere, which could be a problem if other regions are also having growing pains from transitioning to intermittent energy.
“The peak hour for total internal demand is expected to grow from about 56.4 GW in 2024 to 69.1 GW in 2034, a 22.5% load growth over the forecast horizon,” wrote NERC. “Transportation and building electrification are the primary drivers of demand growth.”
The report says California is most likely to face grid problems annually in September between the hours of 5:00 and 8:00 PM, when the sun isn’t providing as much energy but demand is still high.
According to a Berkeley study, California must spend $20 billion upgrading its transmission system to be able to deliver power to electric vehicles, a figure that does not include further upgrades from building electrification; in 2026, most new residential parking spaces will need to have EV chargers, and in 2035, all new vehicles in the state must be zero-emission.
Starting in 2035, all new vehicles in the state must be zero-emission. Starting in 2026, most new residential parking spaces will need to have EV chargers.
One major round of grid upgrades will come from a $15 billion Department of Energy loan to Pacific Gas and Electric — which serves 19 million Californians, or about half the state’s population — for transmission, battery storage, and hydropower upgrades. According to the California Public Utilities Commission, which oversees the state’s utilities, PGE has raised energy prices by 127% between January 2014 and 2024.
With PGE rates now at 40 cents per kilowatt hour, they will soon hit the 50 cent per kilowatt hour break-even point when it costs more to drive a Tesla Model 3 with electrons than it does to drive a Toyota Camry with gasoline.Originally posted at The Center Square, reposted with permission.
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A few nice long “black” grid periods “might”, just maybe, wake Californians up to reality.
But deep-seated brain-hosing can be hard to get around, once it gets to the oozing green sludge stage.
We already face, nearly annually, either rolling blackouts or curtailment periods (public safety power shutoffs) for “bad weather”
Just so everyone is clear. California energy practices are about centralized command and control. Energy being just the hammer. The time is coming when your EV will be assigned authorized charging periods and caps. And forget any fantasies about being off-grid. Tie-ins will be mandatory. And when the needs of the collective demand, you shouldn’t be surprised when that grid draws down some of your storage for the greater good.
“And when the needs of the collective demand, you shouldn’t be surprised
when that grid draws down some of your storage for the greater good.”
______________________________________________________________________________
And if you try to isolate your stored power, you can expect armed men with
guns to show up at your door.
I prefer armed men without guns.
Unarmed Men WITH guns might prove equally useless
You will buy the biggest battery for your EV than your transport needs and be magnanimously happy!
The CA government seems to be on a path to push middle income families out of the State and to facilitate the increase of no income or low income families.
The demographics and socio-economic situation in 2035 should be fairly clear. I suppose scholars in the universities are studying the trends and modeling the changes. However, I have neither looked for nor encountered reports.
A dependency class is a compliant class.
Typically, this article has bounced around the internet without, AFAICS, any link to the actual report. It is here.And of course the quotes are very selective. Here is one example where the Heatland quote is in green, but the parts in red tell a very different story:
Heartland quotes this highlight:
““The peak hour for total internal demand is expected to grow from about 56.4 GW in 2024 to 69.1 GW in 2034, a 22.5% load growth over the forecast horizon,” wrote NERC. “Transportation and building electrification are the primary drivers of demand growth.””
but omits the preceding one:
“Starting in Summer 2029 onward, CA/MX shows a shortfall of existing-certain and net firm transfers. However, with planned generation resource additions the shortfalls are eliminated. Imports may be necessary if the new resources were to be significantly delayed. LOLH and EUE are mitigated over the assessment horizon with the addition of Tier 2 resources and primarily correspond with the evening down ramp of solar and lingering demand after peak. “
Without the very selective quoting, it is quite a positive report.
So, adding more weather-dependent generation gets rid of the shortfalls? Now with EV heavy vehicles being mandated? Pull the other one.
This is the report Heartland chose to highlight. And that is what it said.
But you are highlighting the “optimistic” parts, which simply aren’t believable.
So why are the parts carefully selected by Heartland believable?
Poor Nick, still doesn’t grasp the difference between reality and wishful thinking !
Nick still thinks that there is a country out there, somewhere, in which large amounts of solar and wind have reduced the price at the meter! Next he’ll be vouching for the existence of unicorns and leprechauns; the better to power the grid with their magically delicious $h&T!
At least we know what he’s been smoking!
I would guess that Heartland understands the difference between ‘capacity’ and ‘output’, which you clearly don’t.
You don’t seem to be able to understand who is writing what. I said nothing myself about capacity and output. I just quoted Heartland’s link.
Well for one Nick, citing the nameplate capacity of added solar and batteries is quiet senseless. Solar produces about 1/4 of nameplate capacity and that only at high local noon with no clouds. Batteries can have lots of capacity but must be charged (by what being unstated) and work only for a few hours.
“So why are the parts carefully selected by Heartland believable?”
Because they’ve been demonstrated to be.
Hmmm.
I have to ask…
“…found only a small occurrence (<1 hour) of resources falling below margin levels for reliability in the 2028 year study…”
Just how in the world does one study a year that has yet to occur?
Are they still using Models as DATA??
Or do they have a 1981 DMC Delorean parked somewhere with a Flux Capacitor on the rear wall and a Mr Fusion connected to the power unit???
THere is no DATA about 2028. If you want to figure what might happen, you have to use a model.
ie.. GUESS. !
The model with say whatever you program into it, no matter how ridiculous.
The 2028 system assumes….
“The analysis assumes forecasted demand growth of 3.5 GW, substantial resource additions (4.6 GW of solar PV, 7.6 GW in batteries, and 0.8 GW of natural-gas fired generation imported from repowered coal units in Utah), and the retirement of over 3 GW of gas-fired generation.”
Evening peak demand, the solar PV growth will be zero.
And batteries need two ratings, one in GW to say what instantaneous output they can achieve, and one in GWh that allows you to calculate how long for.
This is a drop in the amount of reliable electricity supply.
Assuming they mean 7.6 GWh, then that’s about $4bn in today’s money. But they might mean 7.6GW of output capacity without telling us how long they think they need them to run, which would cost way more.
Noted, the only new supply that can be counted on is the 2.2GW Diablo Canyon expansion
5GW of batteries is meaningless without storage capacity in GWh
I read quite a lot of the report. The article as repeated above in WUWT does not, to my mind, represent the report very well. The article concentrates on California’s electricity deficit well into the 2030s with a mention of 2029, whereas the cited report is full of various regions hitting shortfalls in 2025, 2026 and 2027. The report is basically saying that things are going to go very wrong very soon.
” things are going to go very wrong very soon” – – – and from Bryan A below: “charges residential customers 54-56¢/KWh “
I think something has already gone very wrong. In central WA State, I pay about 11¢ and just 25 miles east of me the charge is 1/2 mine. That is the cost all year all 24 hours of each day. It won’t change until early fall 2025.
Beyond that, the PNW sends electrons to CA via the Pacific DC Intertie.
Heartland explained what was said in the quotes you complain were left out. “The report says that the area will not have enough reserve capacity over the reference margin level — the amount of excess power generation available above peak demand to ensure reliable operations — after 2034 **unless new planned resources** are added. It also says that **if new resources do not come online on time**, that in 2029 the region will need to import more energy from elsewhere.”
PG&E already charges residential customers 54-56¢/KWh during peak demand hours. When will the typical EV owner be plugging in to recharge at (hint: after returning from work and before leaving for work the next day) Evening Peak.
10M residential customers recharging 1/7 of 20M EVs nightly will shift Peak Usage Time from the demand placed on recharging 3M EVs after 6pm.
With todays forecast for massive polar vortex outbreak that will hit much
of the country might we see a repeat of the Texas Blackout of 2021? I hope
not but am getting ready as it looks and sounds serious. Will we go from
the warmest year on record to the coldest in memory? Speaking
of grid reliability.
On average, we’re looking at something like 16 years (shortest 10 yrs, longest period 22 yrs) between events of this magnitude as happened based on events occurring in Texas in the years 1989, 2011 and 2021 so far. Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future happenings or results, but those are the statistics we have to work with to date.
PS. I am a Tx resident and have witnessed each and every one of these events having been subjected to weather events going back before 1980.
California has a problem.
Their PV is aging and they are topped out on wind (they must go offshore). Demand will double due to battery vehicles, AI, etc. In less than 10 years, their PV reaches the end of operational life. Then, from where is CA to get all the money to demolish, recycle, and then build twice the sized PV fleet again?
AI won’t be an issue. Big tech will look after themselves with their own nuclear power. Only humans will face shortfalls, and the media will just tell them that they are imagining it or that they need to change when they turn things on. And it’s coal’s fault.
NERC reliability assessments use average weather so heat waves could make things worse sooner.
re: ” International Regulatory Authority Says California Grid at Risk of Energy Shortfalls ”
.
The GOVERNMENT solution – Time Shifting!!
LIKE we do with ‘Daylight Saving Time’ – MOVE the actual 5 PM hour forward by 3 hours! PROBLEM SOLVED!!
(I hope all appreciate this is sarcasm. And I do not like DST.)
California is not unique because all the grids in the net zero world are on the way to the “wind drought trap.”
The trap is set slowly over several years as subsidised and mandated unreliable energy displace conventional power without being able to replace it.
https://www.flickerpower.com/index.php/search/categories/renewables/21-7-intermittent-solar-and-wind-power-can-displace-coal-but-cannot-replace-it
Britain and Germany demonstrate the end game of the process.
https://newcatallaxy.blog/2023/07/11/approaching-the-tipping-point/
Government meteorologists worldwide’ incompetence or negligence allowed this situation to develop because they didn’t issue wind drought warnings, even though they knew full well that high-pressure systems cause low winds, sometimes for days on end.
Consequently, the Dunkelflautes came as a surprise in Europe although mariners and millers must have experienced them for centuries.
https://www.flickerpower.com/images/The_endless_wind_drought_crippling_renewables___The_Spectator_Australia.pdf
The plot thickens when we discover that the World Meteorological Organization must have known about wind droughts. The IPCC’s first Assessment report recommended a survey of the world’s wind resources to assess the prospects for large-scale wind power. The WMO, working with official meteorologists around the world, would have led that survey.
Moreover, the WMO was a pioneer in the UN climate alarm campaign, and all the Met Offices have been hyperactive in supporting the scare by tampering with temperature records and attributing extreme weather events to climate change.
The climate alarmists in the UN set out to wreck the capitalist economies of the west (to save the planet) and they have practically achieved that objective in Britain and Germany where the lights are kept on precariously with imported power while they deindustrialize to reduce demand.
Australia is on the cusp, and it remains to be seen how long the old coal burners can continue to operate until nuclear power becomes available at scale.
Turning to the United States, there is no time to waste to avoid the trap by saving coal and gas generators from the impending EPA regulations that were designed to close them down.
COLLECTED BRIEFING NOTES OF THE ENERGY REALISTS OF AUSTRALIA
https://www.flickerpower.com/index.php/search/categories/general/list-of-briefing-notes
SERIES OF ARTICLES IN THE AUSTRALIAN SPECTATOR
https://www.flickerpower.com/index.php/search/categories/general/the-energy-crisis-how-we-got-here-and-how-to-move-on
Meanwhile offshore wind in Oz remains effectively dead-
(The Australian Dec29 2024)
An application with federal environmental regulators for the almost $2bn SA offshore wind farm project – also known as the Kingston project – was withdrawn without explanation this month…..
The apparent demise of the project makes it the latest in a string of failed wind proposals around Australia, despite the Albanese government’s advocacy for the sector and its reliance on wind power to help meet its 2030 renewable energy target.
In October, UK-headquartered RES Group formally withdrew its proposal to develop the 63-turbine, 441 megawatt Barneys Reef wind farm north of Gulgong in central NSW……
And in July, Korea Zinc subsidiary Ark Energy pulled its plans for a 430MW, 54-turbine Doughboy wind farm between Armidale and Coffs Harbour, in northern NSW, after determining that the project was “no longer viable”.
Back to fighting the NIMBYs onshore with the fickles factories.
$20bn for extra transmission doesn’t even touch the sides of the extra distribution investment required if electrification is to proceed. It’s probably more instructive to try to work out what population can be supported from the existing assets, and thence estimate outward migration from the state. Real climate policy refugees.
Speaking of power outages- just had one this morning here in north central Wokeachusetts. No storm, so I have no idea what caused it. Just while I’m planning on installing a generator. I ordered it and it should be here in several days and my electrician will install it ASAP.
Maybe a drunk hit a pole!
“Cause and effect, chain of events
All of the chaos makes perfect sense
When you’re spinnin’ ’round, things come undone
Welcome to Earth, third rock from the sun”
[Chorus: Third Rock From The Sun – Joe Diffie]
Given that actual failure is required to dislodge the national adoption of the globalist religion, California is just the place.
Another “I told you so” moment.
All I can say is California is damn lucky I can’t be put in charge of their power. I wouldn’t go on a spree of building new reliable power generators, I would make California live with the decisions they are currently making. No imported fossil fuel, hydro or nuclear generated electricity. All new vehicles purchased will only be battery electric starting tomorrow. No imported petroleum, gasoline, diesel, oil or oil derivatives. My guess is all of California’s power issues would be solved in a couple weeks to a month. If you really want to help someone force them to accept what they are asking for.
By 2035 most all ESG, DEI, CC, and Net Zero will be officially promoted and considered to be Net Nonsense. The Truth can not be hidden from the public for another Ten Years.
The net Zero Narratives are all exploding like July 4th fireworks. The pieces are all falling on the elite faculty members of our premier educational institutions.