Guest essay by Larry Hamlin
The climate alarmist media seems to act as though the year 2024 Northen Hemisphere hurricane season involves nothing but the Atlantic Ocean and apparently is unaware that the Pacific Ocean, which is over twice the size of the Atlantic, is not cooperating with their politically driven propaganda schemes.
Shown below are the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Projects ACE data for both the Northeast Pacific Ocean and the Northwest Pacific Ocean through October 9, 2024.
It is obvious from this data that the huge Pacific Ocean ACE levels have fallen flat and have no intention in cooperating with the media’s climate alarmist propaganda campaign that is so focused on pushing election year hype based solely on exaggerating events occurring on the Atlantic Ocean while ignoring the rest of the World’s Northern Hemisphere Oceans.
The World is about 75% through the year 2024 hurricane season with the combined Pacific Ocean basins being only about 41% of the to date total average season ACE level with, of course, not a peep from the climate alarmist propaganda media cabal.
The Northern Hemisphere year 2024 ACE levels are only about 70% of where the 30 year average to date profile resides as shown below as of October 9th.
The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane season has an ACE value as of October 9th of 127.6 as shown below and found here.
The North Atlantic Basin archives from Colorado State University show that the 6 highest ever ACE values for this region are as follows: year 1933 at a value of 258.6, 2005 at 245.3, 1926 at 229.6, 2004 at 226.9, 2017 at 224.9 and 1950 at 211.3.
The present North Atlantic ACE value for year 2024 is 127.8 is less than half of the highest ever recorded value in 1933 meaning that year 2024 is not going to set anything close to record ACE value outcome.
Some of the claims being made about the impacts of the year 2024 Atlantic hurricane season are just astounding with an example discussed below dealing with the recent Asheville flood damage.
In an L A Times op-ed piece published on October 9, 2024, the writer bemoans the loss of Asheville as “a climate haven” because of the impact of Hurricane Helene noting:
“But Asheville was considered a climate haven. I’ve always told family members we can never sell our homes there. It is utterly unfathomable that it would be devastated first by one of the worst climate disasters in U.S. history”.
In fact, there are many such media articles that have referred to Asheville as a “climate haven” that somehow is being proclaimed as never having been touched by weather extremes.
This claim is completely false as addressed in the article here and shown below which addresses the Atlantic’s 1916 Major Hurricane which resulted in horrific flood damage to Asheville from this 108 year old major hurricane that has absolutely nothing to do with climate alarmists claims of “climate change”.
But that reality will never be published by the climate alarmist mainstream media – at least not in an election year.
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ACE = Accumulated Cyclone Energy
How is the ACE measured?
Thank you.
All dem cat sixes about boil the oceans.
A Cat 6 hurricane would be a “Mann-tastic” storm. 😉
Poor Kamala, when she discusses Marxist ideas she seems lucid, but crazy. When she has to discuss non Marxist ideas she is dumb as a stump.
She will be wealthy though if all goes to plan.
Along with the others (more wealthy, that is) who are implementing the plan …….
The author is attempting the impossible – putting data ahead of hyperbole. Hyperbole is newsworthy, Data is just data.
This is a good article with one exception that few people seem to know about
The ACE index is unreliable before the year 2000
Before 2000 it undercounts tropical storms that did not reach hurricane force. That means the usual comparison of the current year with the “Yearly climatology from historical 1991-2020” which Ryan Maue calls “Normal” is inaccurate and should be ignored.
Paul Homewood in the UK has written about this inaccuracy (Not a Lot of People Know That website) but I can’t think of anyone else. I have no idea how to find a link to that Homewood article.
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/comparison_table.html
ACE” – Accumulated Cyclone Energy = An index that combines the numbers of systems, how long they existed and how intense they became. It is calculated by squaring the maximum sustained surface wind in the system every six hours that the cyclone is a Named Storm and summing it up for the season.It is expressed in 10 to the 4th kt**2.
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/science/explainers/ace-accumulated-cyclone-energy-measure-a-hurricane-seasons-ferocity
Even with all those undercounted Tropical storms 1926, 1933, and 1950 landed in the top six.
The IPCC was correct to say storms haven’t increased.
Also we measure wind speeds differently than we did 10,20,30,40+ years ago
This false claim has already been exposed but just to close the loop – you don’t have a clue.
Hamlin has always been an inaccurate author and does not disappoint this time
The percentage change of the current ACE versus the pre-2000 “normal” average is always overstated.
Don’t get angry with me because you fail to analyze and understand the data you promote.
Dickie Greene has always been a totally dumb evidence -free commenter, and does not disappoint… ever.
Stuck with his AGW-cult ignorance and a basic lack of comprehension and scientific knowledge.
He really doesn’t have a clue and is totally jealous of anyone with more knowledge than his pitiful offerings..
Angry with you ?? 😀
You have special senceof humor, we are laughing loud about your comments. 😀
For another dog that didn’t bark in the night, it might be informative to look at the weather systems those few East Pacific storms were part of. The Colorado basin has received substantial amounts of rain since September 2023, with both lakes Mead and Powell gaining over the overhyped “permanent drought” of the last five years or so. Powell jumped up 85 feet in just a few months, earlier this year, and Arizona and Utah had rain almost every month. With highland snow already accumulating in the North, everything looks good for a (desert) wet fall and winter.
Tropical storms in the Gulf of California and East Pacific often indicate good news for the Colorado and Rio Grande watersheds. Maybe we could use a couple more..
But don’t look for it on the MSM.
We don’t seem to hear much about Pacific storms in the US, but my company has a division in the Philippines and the storms are common enough that it seems like we lose folks due to power outages from storms for a day or 2 about every 3-4 weeks. A recent storm (Typhoon Gaemi in July) even sank an oil tanker in Manila Harbor, but despite googling showing small articles in the NYT and on CNN, I saw nary a peep about it from the greenies. 48 dead in PH, 11 in Taiwan, 49 in PRC, and 18 in VN, billions in damages or that one. And there’ve been more since, with the most recent being Julian/Krathon at the end of September/beginning of October.
My Pinoy co-workers treat it as completely normal, saying they usualy get hit by 15-20 storms per year, so they’ve learned to just roll with it.
A more general comment concerning this post’s information.
As we go back in time, any information about ‘climate’ becomes significantly less reliable. There are a number of very easily proven reasons.
So a lot of the climate alarm future trend extrapolations are based on an inherent observational ‘high’ bias that cannot be corrected. So climate models ‘validated’ by parameter tuning for best 30 year hindcasts must also be ‘high biased’. This is now proven by basic ‘model predictions’ over 30 year ‘climate’ time spans.
Yea, but…you know…I was watching Katherine Hayhoe interviewed today on CNN and she warned all of us that some people didn’t believe in Climate Change, and…..maybe it’s too late…unless we vote for Camala.
Ho-hum and the Kamal… vacuousity squared !!
We get the same “cyclone” hype down under, with the BoM saying Cat 3,4,5 might get stronger
Australia faces more severe tropical cyclones despite ‘average’ season forecast, BOM warns (msn.com)
But then you look at the data…
Found this interesting tid-bit
“But then you look at the data…”
You upstart !!!
You’re not supposed to look at the data …
Not only that, but you should believe ( without question ) everything your caring, benevolent & glorious leaders tell you to believe, via the completely honest & trustable media.
Read the handbook, it’s entitled … ‘1984’ .
How else are we going to save the planet from the latest unprecedented threat.??
… provided by the BoM and CSIRO to the IPCC in 2020, and the Australian public in 2022.
.
At the top of page 1586 of the AR6, WG-I, you will find (in section 11.7.1.2, “Observed Trends”, where section 11.7.1 = “Tropical Cyclones”) :
Chapter 12 of AR6, WG-I, gives the “Regional Impact” summaries.
Section 12.4.3 is reserved for “Australasia”. In sub-section 12.4.3.3, “Wind”, on page 1810 you will find a “Tropical cyclone” paragraph that starts :
.
The WG-I contribution to the AR6 document cycle was released in May 2021, and it turns out that “CSIRO and BOM, 2020” reference underlined above is to the biennial (once every two years) “State of the Climate” report jointly authored by Australia’s CSIRO and BoM organisations.
We are still waiting for the 2024 version, but the most recent (2022) update can be found at the following link.
http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-climate/
While the “Key Points” section of that webpage limits itself to saying that
the “Tropical cyclones” section of the “State of the Climate 2022” report, on page 10 of the 28 page PDF file, clearly states
Who knew that the BoM (and CSIRO) were actually perfectly well aware of all that ?
‘I’m a Cali Cartel Drug Dealer. I promise you, I’m here to help you….’
It takes naivety on a par of believing the above statement to continue to be taken in by MSM climate lying.
I believe the Pacific is about to take a big jump into the typhoon stakes, there is a huge low developing in the Gulf of Alaska currently at 962hPa, winds are relatively low at the moment 65kph along the associated front.
The Colorado EDU data lists via “named storms”, not taking into account many more storms are named today than in the past, never mind that many storms today are detected and tracked that 80 years ago would not have been seen much less tracked. They name storms in 2024 that in 1934 or even 1984 would not have been named. For example “Daniel” in August 2024 – 35kt winds and 1008mb pressure? That’s a cloudy day.
Names storms is NOT a scientific metric.