NOAA Criteria Suggest Full-Fledged La Niña Unlikely in 2024 – Even A Single La Niña Threshold Unlikely During the Indian Southwest Monsoon
Enso Status on 8th August 2024
Ashok Patel’s Analysis & Commentary :
ONI Data has been obtained from CPC – NWS – NOAA available here
The current data indicates that the Second ENSO Neutral thresh hold has been established at the end of July 2024, thereby Enso Neutral conditions continues. The ONI has dropped to +0.2°C for MJJ2024 season. Nino3.4 SST for June 2024 is 0.18°C and for July 2024 is 0.10°C and so for ONI of JJA2024, the combined total of three months Nino3.4 SST for June, July & August 2024 should at least go down to -1.36°C, so as to get ONI for JJA2024 as -0.5°C by rounding to one decimal.
Since Nino3.4 SST for June is 0.18°C and July is 0.10°C, it would mean that the Nino3.4 SST for August should theoretically go down to -1.64°C, so that the three months total reaches -1.36°C to make JJA2024 ONI -0.5°C to achieve La Nina thresh hold. Observing the Weekly Nino3.4 data, it is highly unlikely that Nino3.4 SST for August 2024 can go down to -1.64°C. Hence, ENSO Neutral condition is expected to continue for JJA2024 season.
Concluding from the above analysis, Enso Neutral conditions will prevail for JJA2024 and at the end of August, since only four months will be left in the current year 2024 full-fledged La Nina cannot be established, even if La Nina thresh hold is achieved in any of the four months remaining.
First conclusion is that La Nina thresh hold will not be achieved during the Indian Southwest Monsoon and Second conclusion is that a Full Fledged La Nina will not materialize during 2024, using the NOAA criteria.
The second conclusion as discussed is that since a La Nina thresh hold for JJA 2024 is not going to be achieved, the earliest La Nina thresh hold if at all it can be achieved is JAS2024, which is when the Indian Summer Monsoon ends.
How ONI is determined:
The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO. Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of further improved homogeneous historical SST analyses (Extended Reconstructed SST – ERSST.v5).
NOAA Operational Definitions for El Niño and La Niña, El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC. La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.
CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST departures meet or exceed +/- 0.5ºC along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecast to persist for 3 consecutive months.
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is a United States Federal Agency that is one of the NECP, which are a part of the NOAA
Latest Oceanic Nino Index Graph Shows Enso Neutral
Conditions Prevail At The End Of July 2024
The Table below shows the monthly SST of Nino3.4 Region and the Climate adjusted normal SST and SST anomaly from February 2023. Climate Base 1991-2020. ERSST.v5
Period Nino3.4 ClimAdjust YR MON Temp.ºC Temp.ºC ANOM ºC 2023 2 26.30 26.76 -0.46 2023 3 27.19 27.29 -0.11 2023 4 27.96 27.83 0.14 2023 5 28.40 27.94 0.46 2023 6 28.57 27.73 0.84 2023 7 28.31 27.29 1.02 2023 8 28.21 26.86 1.35 2023 9 28.32 26.72 1.60 2023 10 28.44 26.72 1.72 2023 11 28.72 26.70 2.02 2023 12 28.63 26.60 2.02 2024 1 28.37 26.55 1.82 2024 2 28.28 26.76 1.52 2024 3 28.42 27.29 1.12 2024 4 28.60 27.83 0.78 2024 5 28.17 27.94 0.24 2024 6 27.91 27.73 0.18 2024 7 27.39 27.29 0.10
Indications and analysis of various International Weather/Climate agencies monitoring Enso conditions is depicted hereunder:
Summary by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP Dated 8th August 2024
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch
Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is expected to continue for the next several months, with La Niña favored to emerge during September-November (66% chance) and persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (74% chance during November-January).
Note: Statements are updated once a month (2nd Thursday of each month) in association with the ENSO Diagnostics Discussion, which can be found by clicking here.
Recent (preliminary) Southern Oscillation Index values as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government.
30 Days average SOI was -5.83 at the end of July 2024 and was -8.85 on 6th August 2024 as per The Long Paddock – Queensland Government and 90 Days average SOI was -3.06 on 6th August 2024.
As per BOM – Australia 6th August 2024
ENSO is neutral; a possibility of La Niña development during spring (Southern Hemisphere)
The ENSO Outlook is currently at La Niña Watch, meaning there are some signs that a La Niña may form in the Pacific Ocean later in 2024. A La Niña Watch does not guarantee that a La Niña will develop. The La Niña Watch is based on climate model forecasts and current atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the Pacific. Atmospheric and oceanic indicators are currently within ENSO-neutral thresh holds. While ENSO is likely to remain neutral until at least early spring. From October, 3 of 7 climate models suggest the
possibility of SSTs cooling to the La Niña threshold (below −0.8 °C). The remaining models suggest a continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions throughout the forecast period.
Note: All Seasons mentioned by BOM are with respect to Southern Hemisphere.
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The plume to the west of Ecuador is currently rather cool:
Javier Vinos not only successfully predicted that Sunspot Cycle 25 would be stronger than the prior cycle (contrary to many believing we’re going into the next GSM), but Javier also suggested that the there would be no La Nina because of the unprecedented 2024 heating spike due to the Tonga submarine volcano. Here is his Tonga video … https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W7GN96BUCEo
Javier has a strong grip on reality, unlike AGW proponents.
The solar cycle effect on ENSO modifies the chances of La Niña and Neutral years. This solar effect on ENSO is a denied fact that greatly decreases the chances to correctly predict ENSO by NOAA and BOM.
The ascending part of the solar cycle is very prone to La Niña, but once solar activity is approaching the solar cycle maximum, the probability of neutral years becomes higher for the next 5 years.
Thank you for the sunspot correlation clarification.
Javier:
What nonsense!
The ONLY thing that causes a La Nina to form is increased levels of SO2 aerosol pollution in our atmosphere from a VEI4 or higher volcanic eruption or rising levels of industrial SO2 aerosol pollution. NOTHING to do with solar cycles.
I said already in May that a La Niña this year was improbable, and since then NOAA has been delaying and reducing the chances of a La Niña.
From my Spanish channel:
The last figure in the post suggests the relevant central Pacific ocean models are not very good.
Fun observation. These are still plotted as SST anomalies. Absolute model divergence would be much worse, as with GAST tuned hindcasts in CMIP ensembles.
As far as I know there is no model of vertical ocean circulation much less to the scale of ENSO. So we have no idea what the physics is, but I do not see stratospheric water involved, or solar input fonr that matter. Water is very heavy and oceans very cold.
This all sounds like a bunch of La Nada to me.
It will certainly be interesting if there is no big cooling as there has been every time before. I am skeptical.
Except … during today’s history of instrument measurements, there has NEVER been an “every time” event regarding an unprecedented submarine volcano like TONGA. Terrestrial volcanoes cause cooling, while submarine volcanoes cause warming – which apparently is inhibiting La Nina formation – as suggested by others.
That triple dip La-Nina preceding this HT induced El-Nino is not an ENSO cycle, it has an artificial source.
I prefer the notion that what is happening now has never happened before, is therefore unique, and whatever similarities may appear to be present should be treated with caution. We all learn from noticing the differences rather than just toting up the similarities. It also stops consensus in its tracks.
test comment
About 18 months and the UAH temp will be back down within .2 degrees of where the El Nino spike started….as per past excursions.
It is obvious these excursions are NOT CAUSED by CO2, rather surface sloshing of the Pacific ocean in the trade winds. The Pacific is really really big. Long term changes (hundreds of years in duration) in the Pacific’s currents probably control the planet’s temperature much more than a measley 1 degree per CO2 doubling.
El Niños, Hunga Tonga Volcanic Eruption, and the Tropics
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/hunga-tonga-volcanic-eruption
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/natural-forces-cause-periodic-global-warming
Near the Equator, just north of New Guinea, is a 9000-m deep plateau, where several tectonic plates slide over each other. There are hundreds of vents and lava eruptions.
The causes of the increased sliding is mostly gravitational pull of the moon. See URLs
The forces must be enormous to move around so much water every 24 hours.
Just as the oceans react with tides, the floating land masses react as well, but with much smaller amplitudes, except at weak points, such as the 9000-m deep plateau. The Pacific Rim has many weak points, with vents and eruptions, as does the mid-Atlantic rift.
That is the normal situation, but every 3 to 7 years additional sliding occurs on the plateau. This causes additional venting and eruptions and additional heating of the already warmish water; the onset of an El Nino, rated weak to very strong. This water rises, and with pre-vailing currents, arrives at Peru. That process takes several months.
Near the Equator, the sun shines on the Pacific surface nearly vertically, while the water travels, causing much evaporation and huge cloud formation.
As the water vapor and warm air rises, other air flows in to fill the “vacuum”. This causes winds, which ripple the surface, which causes greater rates of evaporation, which causes increased winds and waves, which causes even greater rates of evaporation, etc.
Now comes along a a rare event, the very large Hunga Tonga eruption on January 15, 2022, which sent 146 million metric ton of water vapor into the upper atmosphere and stratosphere within a few DAYS, equivalent to a 10 to 15% increase in total water vapor in the atmosphere.
Water vapor is a strong green house gas (CO2 is a weak greenhouse gas), so the El Niño process likely would GRADUALLY heat the lower atmosphere, aka troposphere, by say 0.5 C (measured from the start of 2023, blue line), as shown by NASA satellite measurements. The Hunga Tonga eruption likely would add another 0.5 C (measured from the start of 2023, blue line), for a total of 1.0 C, as shown on Image 2
It takes about 2 to 3 years for the increased water vapor to dissipate, and while this happens, the lower atmosphere would have elevated temperatures, which would gradually decrease to more normal levels.
Image 1, updated monthly, is 45 years of temperatures of the lower atmosphere, based on satellite measurements by NASA.
It shows the peak of the El Nino of 2019 – 2020 and the low-point of the La Nina of January 2022, but does not yet show the up/down spikes of the subsequent El Nino/La Nina. Those spikes have nothing to do with CO2 emissions, manmade and natural, all of which are gradually increasing, due to increased world wide greening, increased use of fossil fuels, and other causes.
You will never find the above explanation in newspapers and on TV, because those entities follow the scare-mongering “guidance” of the IPCC and thousands of associated entities.
I hope this is clear enough for you to explain to other people.
Click on red text to see image 1
Image 2 is available on this site.
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https://ecp.yusercontent.com/mail?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstorage.ning.com%2Ftopology%2Frest%2F1.0%2Ffile%2Fget%2F12374831653%3Fprofile%3DRESIZE_710x&t=1723559396&ymreqid=af722cab-cd40-ccdf-1c6a-cb0005011300&sig=0mZbef1qwo7djN982GATVQ–~D
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Image 2. Here is the latest graph. You can see the temps in 2024 have peaked, and will continue decreasing in 2024, even though CO2 is gradually increasing.
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My understanding is that Tonga increased the water vapor content in the stratosphere 10%-15% not the atmosphere.
The atmosphere holds an estimated 2E13 tonnes. Tonga injected 1.46E8 tonnes.
Seems likely it was the stratosphere.
Per NASA the Tonga water affects solar irradiance onto earth’s surface and has a staying power of over 5 years.
We are approaching the peak of the grand solar maximum that is coupled with the largest solar storm in 23 years. Certainly we can expect to be a tad warmer and that has nothing to do with CO2, real or imagined.
In my article is a calculation and image that shows the WV ppm increased 17% above 20 km, so 10 to 15% for the whole atmosphere is about right.
This calculation is based on measurements
Five years of gradual decrease is even longer than the 2 to 3 years I assumed. Yikes.
The 10 to 15% is an enormous increase, compared to a few percent variations on a daily or weekly basis
We must not forget, the quick addition of WV caused additional atmosphere heating and evaporation, likely adding more WV than was thrown up. That additional WV would be added to the troposphere
Hunga Tonga Underwater Eruption
Now comes along a rare event, the very large Hunga Tonga eruption on January 15, 2022, which sent 146 million metric ton of WV into the upper atmosphere and stratosphere within a few DAYS, which caused a 10 – 15% increase in total WV in the atmosphere, which had a minimal impact on worldwide WV ppm, but a major impact on local Pacific WV ppm.
WV is a strong green house gas (CO2, a trace gas, is a weak greenhouse gas), so the El Niño process (rated strong) likely would GRADUALLY heat the lower atmosphere, aka troposphere, by say 0.5 C (measured from the start of 2023, blue line), as shown by NASA satellite measurements, which means the troposphere can hold additional WV.
The Hunga Tonga eruption likely would add another 0.5 C (measured from the start of 2023, blue line), which means the troposphere can hold even more additional WV.
The total temperature increase due to the two events was about 1.0 C, which enabled the atmosphere to hold 7% more WV, or about 0.07 x 4037 = 282.6 ppm more, which is 282.6/0.0457 = 6185 times greater than the 0.0457 ppm increase due to the 146 million metric ton WV of the Hunga Tonga eruption.
This shows the magnifying power of the sun creating additional WV after the onset of the two events.
See Image 2 and below section “Hunga Tonga Type Eruptions are Weather Influencers”
It may take up to 5 years for the increased WV to dissipate, and while this happens, the lower atmosphere would have elevated temperatures, gradually decreasing, to more normal levels.
There was a rare event that occurred during 2019 – 2020, that caused the globe to cool about 0.5C in 8 months, which likely triggered HT.
What was that rare event?
HT put 35 billion gallons of water into the mid stratosphere. Global aviation is up to around 98 billion gallons into the lower stratosphere each year. The Covid 19 lockdown and travel ban, cut that number down to 45 billion for one year. Up until then global aviation was only increasing since the 60’s, with the occasional lull like Obamas recession, etc..
I have modeled it, remove that trend and Earths temperature correlates with solar activity, very well. Stop flying, and it will come crashing down to temperatures of the 1800’s. That stupid paper that analyzed the 911 contrails (lack of) and determined the nighttime warming and daytime reflection of sun light canceled each other out.
The geniuses did not give one thought about the radiative properties of the water vapor molecules of the contrails once they sublimate.
And it gets worse, almost every major Earthquake happens on a rapid down slope of SST temperatures. The current rumbling around Japan and California are not a coincidence. The Earth is cooling from HT, (and accelerated by the Canadian forest fire particulates (not even on the radar of NOAA) that caused rapid cooling through July) which means the crust is shrinking, ever so slightly, but the current multi decade warming trend has relieved the pressure at the plate boundaries since Pinatubo cooling. A recession / depression which sees a significant reduction in flights or another travel ban, will cause more Texas killer freezes, hurricanes and Earthquakes until an equilibrium is reached. Physics and History dictate that a cooling world is not a good place to feed 7 billion people, and China cannot feed it’s population without major purchases of crops from Brazil and the US.
The dark ages may be upon us, almost as if it was planned.
Thats what the data indicates…
Belief is not a factor.
Thank you for your explanation.
It looks like several events will make it cooler.
I think the book on climate needs to be rewritten, one of the coolest decades of modern times (the 60’s), should have been the warmest.