something I notice- others haven’t commented in the media – it looks to me that Trump turned his head a spit second before he got hit- facing the direction of the shooter- if he hadn’t turned quickly it would have hit him directly- maybe I’m wrong- just looks that way to me
Could anyone who knows anything about ballistics believe that the little scratch on Trump’s ear was made by a tumbling 223 bullet?
The spooks have learned the lesson of the grassy knoll – eliminate the patsy before he can open his mouth.
Who knows what the aim was, how about a shared Consulate of two doddering geysers, where their handlers can run the country however they want?
Trump couldn’t act his way out of paper bag. George Bush was much more convincing during 911.
Think – murdered Kuwaiti Premies. Supposedly the entire US Intelligence community was taken in by a hoax created by the teenaged niece of the Kuwaiti Ambassador, allowing the “allies” to massacre the helpless Iraqui troops starnded without fuel or ammunition in the desert, while riding a high moral horse. Where was the United Nations and its Geneva Conventions then?
I meant the collective “we” as a nation. Not everyone chose the path, but we have collectively been driven down the path whether we wanted to or not.
Sad thing is, I saw this coming more than 20 years ago. And for the last 10 I’ve said that I don’t see a peaceful end – the division is too great, and there is too much hate. Not wishing for anything, just looking at reality.
In my opinion all political parties inhabit the left and they all nurture division because that is their sustenance. Choosing independents means choosing real and harmless people over ideology.
In such extreme moments … a person’s true character is reveled.
Trump’s true character is one of defiance and that of the un-cowed – the very qualities that anyone would want as a President of the United States.
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It wont be a 1972 Nixon result (60.7% of the popular vote 520-17 electoral college votes) – but it’ll be closer…
Don’t underestimate the widespread, systematic, built-in cheating, such as with corrupt voter registration roles.
The voting rules are designed to enable and incentity massive cheating, such as early voting, mail in, and drop boxes
The US Constitution explicitly declares you have to a US citizen to vote in a Presidential Election, in fact, any election for federal office, such as House and Senate representatives of the US people.
Those enforceable requirements are not just optional suggestions
The Department of Injustice arbitrarily decided, after pushing by the Biden cabal, it would be a burden to show proof of citizenship, so therefore states are not required to ask, and in some states election workers are FORBIDDEN BY LAW to ask, such as Vermont, the impoverished SOCIALIST state.
Such rules are incitements to chaos, frustration and violence, make the US look like a banana republic, the laughing stock.
The US Supreme Court should immediately rule each voter is required to show proof of citizenship, to ensure the US Constitution is upheld BEFORE any voting and counting of ballots.
The U.S. House of Representatives passed the “Safe Act” last week, that requires that a person has to be an American citizen in order to vote in an American federal election.
President Biden has vowed to veto the law if it comes to his desk.
Democrats are not democratic, they are authoritarian.
It takes a minor cynic to believe, the Deep State aided/abetted the assassination attempt on Trump, by recruiting a weak, impressionable mind to do the dirty work, then snuff him out immediately after he fired about 9 shots.
Why was that roof, with a clear line of sight of the podium, available to an assassin with a rifle, and not occupied by police?
Why did police and Secret Service ignore a warning by a spectator, someone was climbing on that roof with a rifle?
Investigators, including of the Secret Service, will undertake to investigate the assassination attempt.
These same investigators have moved heaven and earth to harass Trump legally and politically for much of the last eight years.
Is there any evidence, Merritt Garland’s Justice Department has been fair and impartial about anything, especially regarding Trump?
As always, the investigators will double dog dare anyone to question their integrity. The lapdog Media will be enlisted to help out.
No need for minor cynics, just a fully functional mind.
Have you seen the photo of the “shooter”? It shows someone who doesn’t even know how to hold a rifle, let alone aim it.
His firearm (if that’s what it is) is pointing up, not down. Whatever he’s “aiming” at, it can’t be Trump. There’s no evidence of a riflescope, and no amateur would-be sniper would use a stock AR15 for a 100 yard head shot, nor would he be wearing glasses and unbound long hair.
The only picture I’ve found doesn’t have enough detail to distinguish the alleged AR15’s stock from the action. but if the stock is visible, he doesn’t have it against his shoulder. and if it’s the action, he’s got his cheek on it. I don’t think he’d get more than one shot off like that, and be lucky to hit anything except the ground or the roof.
At least three of the shots were fired in burst mode, ie. not from a stock civilian AR15, unless it had a bump-stock, which they would have mentioned.
As for Trump’s ear wound, my guess is it’s self-inflicted, probably facilitated by a shot of local anesthetic before the show began.
As the old saying goes – who benefits? Certainly not Biden, unless he’s sold out and is in on it. Have to wonder whether the three collateral hits were random (like the thousands of Palestinians), or a side dish of score settling?
There was definitely professional sniping at work, but the patsy didn’t get to shoot anybody.
Trump already lost anywhere that has vote by mail. Not absentee voting, mind you, that’s allowed everywhere, but vote by mail where ballots are mailed to everyone.
Election month is a direct result of Covid 19 fear mongering.
There is no other reason to justify the loss of ballot custody.
When the custody of ballots is lost, democracy is lost. You cannot guarantee one man one vote to anybody because you just don’t know where the ballots went.
Well all those who called him a threat to democracy and Hitler will be cringing right now. Bottom line is the secret service effed up bad not manning that roof and then there were precious minutes lost as the outsiders were warning of the gunman clambering on the roof- God must have been watching down on Trump: Israeli Special Operations veteran (youtube.com)
The insiders would have been scanned for weapons but that obvious unmanned roof has cost one innocent life and a couple more injured and maybe fighting for life.
Reagan’s assassination attempt in 1981 had that effect on me. But that was a totally ‘nother country.
Still, it’s hard to imagine how being a survivor of an assassin’s bullet that drew blood could be a negative consideration for undecided voters. It might give a push for disaffected Biden 2020 voters to get on the Trump train as well.
How can the Secret Service be so incompetent? When an agency performs basic duties so poorly, in invites conspiracy speculates. See Jeffery Epstein prison suicide if you want another example.
The ‘news’-media promoting daily screeds against Trump and Republicans, offered up as “opinion” pieces, and thereby influencing impressionable, immature minds.
Something that I have recently observed on MSN, is that there are commenters, without a single ‘Like’ on their current comment, showing a history of over 118,000 ‘Likes, for an average ratio of about 9:1 Likes/Comments. It is improbable when an articulate commenter more typically has a ratio of about 2:1. When I questioned such abnormal ratios (there were others) and rhetorically asked if they might be paid trolls, MSN refused to publish my comment, despite many accepted comments being borderline ‘Hate Speech.’
How about a young deluded fool thinking he would be famous for shooting Trump, imprisoned, but a hero to many…though the plan didn’t seem to work out for him…
DM,
That is also my uninformed, distant reaction, but of course it is too plain and it lacks the potential for alarm and indoctrination by evil people. Geoff S
I think the downvotes on TYS’s comment are unwarranted, if I’m understanding the statement correctly. The shooter didn’t just try, he actually did shoot Trump, even if the injury (fortunately) was minor.
A week or so ago I visited a museum on one of the islands in the Baltic Sea, nothing remarkable in that, however, one of the exhibits stated that it had been warmer and more humid in medieval times.
If it is valid to indict Trump for inciting an insurrection for telling supporters to ‘fight like hell’ to save their country.
Why is not valid to indict Biden for inciting an assassination for telling supporters ‘it is time to put Trump in the bulls-eye’???
Rather SCOTUS determined that there is a difference between official acts and unofficial acts.
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Are you suggesting that “it is time to put Trump in a bulls-eye’ is an official presidential action?
Assassination of a political opponent has never been considered an “official act” by any civilized society. Without one’s constitutionally protected “day in court,” it is simply murder. At the very least, it should lead to impeachment and removal from office.
Clyde,
Throughout political history bodily harm including terminal has been used many times for poliricalgain.
Yet, when one hears the plaintive post-shooting statements by global p;olitical leaders, most say something like “Violence canot be part of a true democracy”
Why is there this preference for a wish, rather than a recognition of a historic problem? Geoff S
Yes, realistically, assassination has often been resorted to, particularly for dictators, because there were usually no alternatives. However, in a free state, there are alternatives, such as an election. However, my point was that extralegal actions have rarely been encouraged, and if an attempt fails, the powers-that-be will look upon the attempt very seriously.
It’s a simple statement of fact, SCOTUS has essentially given the president the power to assassinate whoever he wants for whatever reason without any fear of prosecution.
But simply put you are lying. SCOTUS did not do that. Within the Constitution there are no articles or sections that indicate the president can kill “whoever he wants”.
The Executive Office is supposed to enforce the laws passed by Congress. That is why emergency Executive Orders should be confirmed by Congress. Being Commander In Chief, gives the President powers that others don’t have. That doesn’t excuse simple murder, for which the President should answer to Congress. It falls under the definition of “other high crimes.” Applied properly, the “immunity” confirmed by SCOTUS should be a shield against ‘Lawfare’ that impedes executive action, not as a release from criminal responsibility that has nothing to do with enforcing the laws passed by Congress.
Actually SCOTIS has sent the matter of Presidential immunity back to the lower courts for consideration amongst the various legal actions launched against Trump.
These lower courts must now consider whether any alleged action falls within a President’s 1) core constitutional powers, 2) within the periphery of his powers or 3) outside his powers.
If an action falls in the 1st the President has absolute immunity, in the second a ‘presumptive’ immunity and no immunity for the 3rd.
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Clearly you read the cliff notes of the dissent and not majority ruling.
” Posting to his social media platform, Truth Social, on Saturday, Trump’s first reaction to the footage was far from the mockery and conspiracy-mongering of other right-wing figures, with the former president seeming to express outrage at the “nasty” footage.
You are such a silly man. You post stuff that shows a violent attack by a psycho, then repeat the gay bullshit. Then you post another link that doesn’t work. And you call me a failure. Now address my point or don’t waste your time responding. Why is it OK for Trump to mock Pelosi’s attack?
Biden already got a pass. He can’t be charged with mishandling secret documents as a private citizen because he is unable to understand the charges against him.
Gosh the Donald was lucky! What a near miss. Pity for the casualties. What about future gun legislation? As a Brit where possession is illegal unless certificated, I think America is deranged about guns.
If millions of Patriot Americans did not have guns, when the British army was marauding the “Colonies”, we, Americans would all be UK citizens, and that would really be the pits.
Misery loves company – I’m fairly certain the precursor to the various ‘critical theories’, i.e. Postmodernism, initially reached our fair shores from Germany.
The “Battle of New Orleans” was fought 3 weeks after the Ghent peace treaty was signed. But colonial terrorists fired on the British columns returning to Europe. Forced to occasionally return fire despite orders to march directly to waiting ships, there ended up being nearly 2000 casualties. This according to my great grandfather’s 120 year old British history book.
When Napoleon led his 250,000 bedraggled, underfed, under-armed troops from Moscow out of Russia, only 20,000 were left to cross the French border, due to Russians picking off the horses and the laggards for 800 miles.
France never recovered its “greatness” til this day.
The current greatness is a Potemkin facade.
The same is true for the UK
3 weeks? How long did take for the news of peace to reach everyone back in the day of sail?
Who knew they were at peace? Only the British but not the Americans?
The Battle of New Orleans happened because neither side knew the war was over.
(Reminds me of stories of Japanese soldiers finally surrendering in the Philippines a decade or so after the WW2 was over. They were devoted to The Emperor but just never heard or were convinced he had surrendered.)
Well, the British basically authored the treaty of Ghent, made arrangements for it to be signed in Brussels, transported signatories including Americans to Brussels by ship, so they must have known weeks before the actual signing what the intent was, and sent their troops to the waiting ships assuming peace would be declared…remember you are taught revisionist history in school.
Just like US joining WW1 and WW2 was for “peace, justice, and freedom” from oppression….when analysis of the economics shows that many American businesses would be bankrupted if Europe was beaten by the Germans and huge debts for war materials were starting to look like they might not get paid….
Lexington and Concord happened when the British, oppressive back then, where marching to confiscate the arms colonist in Massachusetts had stockpiled. (They had their own personal guns and ammo. Lots of hunting back then to put food on the table.)
Some farmers said, “No”.
Is the world better off or worse off from their stand?
(WW1, WW2? We became steadfast allies.)
“it’s the culture that creates so many homicidal maniacs”
It’s also the culture of radical Leftists to not lock these maniacs up, either.
So the leftwing media creates homocidal maniacs by exposing people to leftwing, violent “entertainment, song and hateful speech”, and then lets them run wild in the streets.
The Radical Democrats are the real problem with our society. They are deranged, and following their lead ends in disaster.
If they take law-abiding Americans guns away, then only the crazy people will have guns. Crazy people don’t care about, and won’t pay attention to, laws and restrictions.
I have a gun. One night a burglar broke into my house in the middle of the night. He made his way to my bedroom door where I proceeded to cock the hammer back on my gun. The criminal heard the noise and understood what it meant, and turned around and ran just as fast as he could back out the door he broke into, never to be seen again.
I didn’t have to kill anyone or even shoot my gun and look how handy it came in for me. That burglar won’t be coming back to my house.
Not sure what he would have done if all I had was a knife on me.
Oz had a massive gun buyback after the Port Arthur Massacre in Tasmania and that was going to fix the problem. Now it seems Australians prefer to be stabbed to death by murderous types if you tune into the daily news. Strange preference if you ask this trap shooter.
It has been reported that explosive devices (generally illegal) were found in the shooter’s car. Would you prefer that a deranged person resort to unselective explosives with probable higher casualty rates? It appears that the shooter’s father bought the rifle for him, suggesting that Pennsylvania has a minimum age requirement of 21 to own a firearm. The father has lost a son, and may spend a long time in jail for a bad decision. That will be the immediate fall out.
The latest info’ that I have seen was that the father bought the rifle 11 years ago, when his son was 9. So, it appears that it was legally owned by the father and it is inconceivable that he would have given permission for his son to use it if he had told his father what he wanted it for.
This kid got ahold of a gun his father owned.
Haven’t heard much about his family.
Richard Greene
July 14, 2024 2:41 am
Donald Trump survives obvious assassination attempt.
Idiot Biden refuses to say this was an attempted assassination.
Shooter is killed on a nearby rooftop by a Secret Service sniper.
Secret Service and police had been warned minutes before the shots but failed to do their jobs.
They were also incompetent for ignoring the roof before the speech.
The shooter was named by the New York Post as Thomas Crooks of Bethel Park, PA in the Pittsburgh Metropolitan area.
The National Pulse has found Federal Election Commission (FEC) data matching the name to a location in Bethel Park, which–if the same person–shows the shooter was a donor to the Progressive Turnout Project through ActBlue, a left-wing political fundraising platform. The Progressive Turnout Project helps to elect far-left Democrats to Congress and other offices.
Eight years of leftists demonizing Trump as a fascist, comparing him to Hitler and calling him a threat to democracy.
Now leftists will act surprised that someone tried to kill Trump.
And they will soon try to ban guns and cancel the second amendment.
“Eight years of leftists demonizing Trump as a fascist, comparing him to Hitler and calling him a threat to democracy.
Now leftists will act surprised that someone tried to kill Trump. ”
I think we can expect to see on Fox News, every instance of a Democrat or leftwing media type demonizing Trump over the last eight years is going to be replayed and replayed. The Democrats are not going to be able to escape the fact that they have agitated the psychos in our midst to commit violence by calling Trump a modern-day Hitler, and a threat to Democracty and the U.S. Constitution.
Words have consequences. Let’s hope the bad consequences happen to those who deserve it, the radical, lying, violent Democrats who have constantly demonized Trump for political purposes.
This incident just makes Trump stronger. Trump’s former White House doctor, says Trump came as close to dying yesterday as you can without actually dying. Trump turned his head at just the right moment and the bullet grazed his ear rather than entering his skull. I think the Good Lord is watching over Donald Trump. And those of us who think he is the solution to our problems.
And the Secret Service has a lot of explaining to do. Why wasn’t the rooftop the shooter used guarded? It is an obvious sniper position.
And there are reports that the Trump organization asked for increased Secret Service personnel several times in the recent past and was turned down by the Biden administration.
And how did this shooter know just where to go at the Trump rally?. He didn’t live in that area, but it appears he is familiar with the area.
As near as I can tell the shooter got off about seven shots. He was using an AR which holds 20 or 30 rounds in a clip. So it looks like the Secret Service snipers got him before he could empty his rifle.
But now we’re not talking about going 25th Amendment on Joe Biden’s ass. That is, we changed the headlines for a few days or weeks. The media is now talking about something else.
That’s true. The media (the rightwing media anyway) is going to be talking about the radical Left’s demonization of Trump now, which is not a good look for the radical Left.
And they’ve given Joe a pass for saying, “I have one job and that’s to beat Donald Trump,” Biden said. “We’re done talking about the (June 27) debate. It’s time to put Trump in the bullseye.”
Why would Republicans want to invoke the 25th amendment on Biden? At this point he may be the easiest candidate to beat. I suspect that Harris can read a teleprompter accurately and avoid cackling if the occasion demands it. Biden simply can’t perform on demand. He’s like the windmills and solar panels he loves so much. Not dispatchable.
I see where they talked to a school mate of he Shooter’s and he said the Shooter was bullied in school.
When I saw the first picture of the shooter, I said to myself, this guy has been bullied all his life.
So he is a social outcast which may have driven him delusional and he bought into the violent leftwing demonizing of Trump and decided *he* would be the hero and take Trump out. That’s my take on it.
There are lots of psychos out there that are easily influenced by hateful propaganda. The radical Left should refrian from their violent rhetoric and quit agitating the psychopaths on the Left. But, of course, they won’t stop, it’s the only thing they have to attack their political opponents since they have no viable policies that anyone would want to vote for.
The latest issue of National Review has a picture of Trump morphed into Adolf Hitler.
Biden is currently pulling all his political advertisements from tv since they all demonize Trump to one extent or another, so they are trying to prevent the American people from seeing that there really is an ongoing demonization of Trump by Biden and the radical Democrats. Now, they want to hide that fact from the American people. Understanbly so, since it is such an ugly picture of the radical Democrats.
My brothers told me that you can indeed find killer mail from zero’s on “the radical left”, on X today. OTOH with Predecessor and his minions, it’s a feature.
Classic messenger killing. Might want to research “ultra leftist” David Frum, a former Republican presidential speech writer. And I can see why you diss the Atlantic. It started as a an abolitionist publication and is now the oldest in the land.
And of course, NO credible rebut to anything in the article…
Elected representatives and their staff are not “zero’s”. Celebrities are not “zero’s”. The violent rhetoric specifically against Trump goes back to 2016, but it never seems to get called out by the left, and by left-leaning media. Instead, it’s always thrown back on the right.
As usual, the left never takes responsibility for its own actions.
“Elected representatives and their staff are not “zero’s”. Celebrities are not “zero’s”.”
If they counsel violence they are. Thankfully, even if you could provide an actual example, it would be such a small fraction, compared to their Predecessor idolizing counterparts, that it would only reinforce my point.
“The violent rhetoric specifically against Trump goes back to 2016..”
Examples? Yes, I’m sure you can find the odd X loser. Just not the orders of magnitude higher number of those, both prominent and not, Mussolini’ing for Predecessor.
“I certainly could provide examples but what’s the point when you’re simply going to dismiss them like you just did?”
I certainly could provide examples but my mom’s calling me.
“You are the problem. You are willing to accept violent rhetoric. You buy into hysterical BS written by vile hateful creatures.”
Well, I just said the opposite. Repeatedly. And you continue to worm out on providing an y examples of those (pearl clutch!) “vile, hateful, creatures.”
“You have already staked out your position before I provide any evidence, so why should I bother?”
You should “bother” because it is your BS claim. Once again, per Chris Hitchens:
“That which can be asserted without evidence, can be dismissed without evidence”
Oh, BTW, this is what happens to those vanishingly few Democrats who spout “violent rhetoric”.
There’s a video on Rumble here: Secret Service Snipers Reaction to Trump shooter (rumble.com)
that shows Secret Service snipers already aimed at the assassin before he shoots. You can even see President Trump’s reaction to getting hit near the bottom of the screen before the SS shoots, without even re-aiming their rifles. It’s like they had orders not to shoot first.
Long before the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump on Saturday night such focused a harsh light on the Secret Service, the presidential security agency was already facing difficult questions about its capability, training, recruitment and emphasis on diversity.
Secret Service agents reportedly were even circulating a petition raising questions about their management a few weeks ago.
ex-SS agent Dan Bongino calls for the Bidenista SS director to resign:
Dan said the Trump organization requested more Secret Service coverage at Mar-a-Lago, and the Secret Service Director supposedly said she wasn’t going to send exta Secret Service people to guard a nightclub.
Biden has never fired anyone in his administration. He should fire the Secret Service Director.
The U.S. House of Representatives has called for the Secret Service Director to testify before Congress a week from tomorrow (Monday).
Dan Bongino and other former Secret Service Agents have a lot of dirt to dish on the leadership of the Secret Service. The hearing ought to be very interesting.
The video doesn’t look right. The news media videos show bunting behind the podium, and no building. The resolution is poor in your link, but it still doesn’t look realistic. There has been so much mis-information — on both sides — that I’d take the video with a large grain of salt.
I came across a high-resolution video supplied by the WSJ, showing two sniper teams on the north and south ‘barn’ roofs, both teams were pointing their rifles and spotting scopes in the direction of the deceased shooter. It appears that at least the north sniper shoots almost immediately after the assassin shoots Trump. That does raise the question of why they were already surveilling the position of the young man and didn’t attempt to neutralize him before he had a chance to shoot. Surely, the team’s spotter had a scope powerful enough to see the rifle and deduce the intent. Hopefully, a lot of questions will be asked — and answered adequately. https://news.yahoo.com/news/secret-faces-serious-questions-security-155157478.html
A local police officer climbed the ladder to check the roof out, and the kid pointed the rifle at him, forcing him back down the ladder. The kid then opened fire.
I hadn’t heard that before.
If true and he radioed in, that might explain why the SS snipers in a video seemed to already have their guns pointed in that direction.
(That makes me wonder if the SS “rules of engagement” require a shot be fired before they respond with lethal force?)
Just had a look at the video slowed down to max at highest resolution.
There’s no sign of blood on his hand or on his white shirt cuff.
No way his bleeding ear was the result of being hit with a 223 bullet shot from an AR15.
As previously noted, Trump is a terrible actor. He needed to keep his hand over the right ear. Now the producers have to bully, bribe and/or discredit/eliminate all the spectators with a clear view of his injured ear to say they saw the bullet hit or shut up.
I’m guessing it will be a loooong time, if ever, before the trajectory of this “shot” is published.
It’s what sheep do, cows too, to be fair. Seriously though, have you looked at Trump’s ears?
The little 223 round is highly unstable, from what I’ve read. It’s a battlefield advantage, in that it makes it tumble on impact, rather than just make a neat hole, creating nasty wounds which are worse for morale and logistics than clean kills.
A twig should be enough to make this bullet tumble at high speed, let alone Jumbo ears like Trump’s. He wouldn’t be asking for his shoe…
Had trouble teasing the attached still out of the fuzzy online video and then converting it to jpeg (I’d forgotten you can’t post pdfs here). It shows the second downward hand motion Trump makes, just before collapsing. My guess is that the first is the signal to start the fireworks. There’s another frame just before this one where his hand is just appearing from behind his head, and the palm is fully open.
If someone can obtain and post a clearer image of either or both, I’d appreciate it.
BTW, a review of the layout of the buildings and the two police snipers aiming at the alleged shooter suggests to me that Trump couldn’t have been shot from the shooter’s position. The shooter would have had to be aiming his barrel across the side ridge of the roof, not parallel to it, as the only picture I’ve seen shows him.
I am building a climate model primarily for the UAH data to remove all known effects, and I have modeled most of the critical events that shaped the last few decades, but the cooling in 2008, is not in Transmission, Ocean Heat, Enso or any climate metric for that matter except solar and Obama’s recession.
This model works only VIA stratospheric forcing of outgoing IR in the context of changing stratospheric aerosols and water vapor. But has no solar term integrated yet.
So, I took the OULU data inverted it and made an empirical model to make a crude algebraic compatible forcing function which I have not integrated into the model. The solar influence shows up in the stratosphere but does not show up in the troposphere.
My question is to even go down the path of solar you have to put the orbital term to compensate for Earths orbital eccentricity to show the 90+ WM^2 annual oscillation of TSI, right?
I have not looked at ocean heat content (OHC) estimates in the context of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) so cannot comment. As you probably know, the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) is one basis for defining El Niño/La Niña events where it reflects the rolling three-month average of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Niño-3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. In the figure below, I show the measured SST values themselves (not the anomalies) which is quite informative in my view. It also shows the 30-year average SST values, which are used to compute the anomaly values. The drop in SST of around 2C to below 25C in late 2007-early 2008 is clearly evident.
The ‘local’ reduction in SST during a La Niña event is primarily the result of upwelling colder waters reducing surface temperatures. In contrast, during El Niño events, the accumulated warm waters of the western Pacific spread eastwards (and poleward) and effectively shut off the upwelling colder water from reaching the surface. Another difference between processes is the duration of the higher or lower SSTs. In a strong or very strong El Niño the higher SSTs are essentially maintained for almost a whole year whereas strong La Niña events show a gradual decrease to a minimum, immediately followed by an increase back towards the average SST.
I’ve experimented quite a bit with OHC. I can’t get good short term variation skill out of it. It does have skill in regard to the long term trend; just not the month to month variation. I’ve found ONI or even just the monthly ENSO index to provide the best skill for the short term variation in UAH.
Experiment with volcanic forcing as well. The Climate Indicator project has the aerosol optical depth and effective radiative forcing data up through 2023 I believe. Adding the volcanic forcing helped my model.
And I’m sure you’re already doing this, but experiment with AMO, PDO, NAO, etc. data as well.
I see what you saying now, I loaded in ONI and it (2008 La-Nina) is there bigger than Dallas. Since it seems you are a data guy, here is the question.
How does an El Nino actually warm the world?
IMHO, every significant thunderstorm adds some quantity of H2O into the Stratosphere, there are several estimates as to how much on average of Water Vapor that the Stratosphere receives from convection over the course of a year. That water vapor takes 3+ years to cycle out of the Stratosphere. It would seem El-Nino’s / La-Nina perturb how much is emitted into the stratosphere and the forcing is realized globally in just a few months by the new radiative properties of the Stratosphere. Since we are blinded by monitoring CO2 over the decades, we have no direct measurements of actual Water Vapor content in the stratosphere beyond the Aqua data.
It would seem that El-Nino’s add more water vapor into the Stratosphere than normal and La-Nina emit less, and that is the mechanism of how the ENSO cycles regulate climate.
I have never heard an explanation from anyone on this topic that made any sense. I even asked Dr UAH himself and his answer should have been, I do not know.
Check it out, I got ONI put in as the oceanic H2O stratospheric input, and I have 2008 La-Nina emerging. These are just back of the napkin fixed equations. The next step is to heuristically perturb the variables for all 3 model inputs to derive at the solution that best fits the UAH global. And as to how much H2O HT injected into the Stratosphere is set at 1 trillion gallons based on various estimates. But I think that is too high.
Once transmission and ENSO perturbations have been completed. Then perturb the modeled quantity of HT stratospheric H2O to achieve the best fit.
Once I get the best fit, then remove that function from the UAH global, attempt a prediction based on Linear Prediction Coding to the desired prediction distance. Compute the new future predicted time series, and then add the modeled trend back.
I do not use any for CO2, my analysis clearly indicates that CO2 is not a player in climate on Earth. Stratospheric Water Vapor is the only greenhouse gas that has any measurable effect on climate.
My question is to even go down the path of solar you have to put the orbital term to compensate for Earths orbital eccentricity to show the 90+ WM^2 annual oscillation of TSI, right?
Unless I’m misunderstanding your intent I think the answer is no you don’t have to consider Earth’s orbital eccentricity. The annual cycle in solar irradiance due to Earth’s orbit has nearly the exact same profile each year. So by analyzing the temperature data in terms of monthly anomalies you have already compensated for the orbital profile of solar irradiance. Remember, there are actually 12 baselines (one for each month) that UAH uses to compute the anomalies.
Contrast this with the 11 year solar cycle which does have a different profile and so must be handled as a term in your model.
For Earth’s current orbit around the Sun, the aphelion-to-perihelion distance ratio is about 1.034, leading to a max-to-min TSI ratio of 1.069 (= 1.034^2).
The average annual solar radiation currently arriving at the top of the Earth’s atmosphere is about 1361 W/m2, referenced to the average distance of 1 AU distance from the Sun.
Therefore, the annual oscillation in TSI will have a max-min variation of (.069*1361)= 93.9 W/m^2,but that’s only relevant at top-of-atmosphere!
The larger problem you face in modeling Earth’s climate is in correctly accounting for:
— variations in areal extent and thickness of cloud coverage over Earth,
— variations in atmospheric average absolute humidity (i.e., TPW),
— variations in amount of suspended dust and aerosols across the atmosphere, and
— variations in Earth’s average surface emissivity (varying with vegetative coverage, snow coverage, ice coverage, and sea-state).
All of these must be considered in the calculations of the net reflectivity (aka albedo) of the Earth’s atmosphere and surface that establish the amount of TSI power received at top-of-atmosphere that never goes into warming Earth’s atmosphere or its surface.
Implicit in the above, the atmospheric variations in cloud coverage, humidity (water vapor), dust and aerosols affect how much LWIR power from Earth’s lower atmosphere and surfaces get transmitted through the atmosphere and into deep space.
Good luck with modeling all these factors . . . the best supercomputer climate models have not done a good job in this regard, particularly with respect to accurately modeling the effects of the many cloud types and their spatial and temporal variations. Reference the many WUWT articles related to cloud model deficiencies including constraints of their formation, dissipation and thermo-regulation (see works by Richard Lindzen and Willis Eschenback).
I agree, that is why I chose not to even play around with the troposphere, GCM’s do not work, regardless how much computer time you throw at them. I have a pretty good model that blows away anything out there, as far as outputting something accurate and useful about what the climate has in store a few years out.
… you have to put the orbital term to compensate for Earths orbital eccentricity to show the 90+ WM^2 annual oscillation of TSI, right?
I would say that to do it properly, not only eccentricity has to be accounted for, but at least the monthly if not weekly average solar elevation integrated across the Earth. (Don’t forget that the eccentricity introduces variability following the inverse-square law.) That affects the path length through the atmosphere as well as the footprint; the longer the path length, the greater the scattering and absorption. Because the surface reflectance varies in a very non-linear fashion for water, the reflectance should take into account the specular reflectance in addition to the diffuse reflectance, especially for the southern hemisphere, integrated across the whole globe. Cloudiness, notoriously, varies considerably with the time of day. It is not a trivial problem to do it right. That is one reason I haven’t tackled it. That and the fact that I don’t have ready access to my own supercomputer.
I am going a different angle, the Troposphere is essentially a state engine controlled by the composition of the Stratosphere in this model. The pain is a few years out, as far as predictability goes, and the forewarning is atmospheric transmission, global aviation and Enso.
The solar component is not really a factor as long as aviation is saturating the Stratosphere with water vapor. If and when that stops, the attempts at trying to model climate via *GCM) might actually work, but I doubt it would be possible to come up with anything useful from a GCM. At least I have not seen anything out of any climate models that would have predicted any of the droughts, freezes and unprecedented heat waves that would have been nice to have some kind of estimate a few years out for any given surface location.
That is the purpose of this model, not to try and guess how warm it will be at the end of the century, but if the potential for predictability of heat waves, floods, and Vortex breaches can be solved heuristically with AI in a decoupled and independent seasonally dependent methodology.
Transmission and Stratospheric Aerosols dictate the climatic responses that matter, and the clouds and storms associated with such activity just do what they do, they (weather) are not the cause, they are the effect of the forcing.
The fact that we are putting around 80 billion gallons of H2O into the stratosphere each year, I do not think that a supercomputer is required to model this, just the knowledge of what is at play here.
Global warming is directly caused by Stratospheric Anthropogenic water vapor from aviation, and if it stopped global temperatures will plumet, just as they did immediately following the lock down. 95 billion gallons per year down to 45 in 6 months. The stratospheric warming and subsequent breach that resulted in the Texas freeze was caused by the large drop in H2O from aviation. The subsequent massive injection of H2O into the Stratosphere by the HT eruption then pushed the world to record warmth. These two indents almost prove that stratospheric water vapor and aerosols are the control knob to Earth’s temperature.
Seems like this could be tested. Set a maximum altitude for planes over a test period. Not sure how long it would take, but definitely worth the effort.
The problem is that trying to cruise at 600+ knots through the turbulence would not work. Besides, the lock down tested that theory. The data is out there clear as a bell. The lockdown caused a massive drop in aviation in a few months. A stratospheric warming event occurred, then the Texas killer freeze.
And if there was any doubt about it, HT tweaked the experiment to the opposite state. I think all the data required is in place to validate this.
“Global warming is directly caused by Stratospheric Anthropogenic water vapor from aviation, and if it stopped global temperatures will plumet, just as they did immediately following the lock down.”
Well then, please explain what caused the global warming that has been scientifically documented to have occurred as Earth transitioned from its last glacial period into the Holocene, starting about about 12,000 year ago, well before there were any aircraft dumping water vapor into Earth’s stratosphere.
Also, I am not aware of any scientific paper that asserts global temperature “plummeted” immediately following any of the approximate end dates of the three separate COVID-19 pandemic lock down periods (ref: “Table of pandemic lockdowns” at the URL https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_lockdowns ), which based on just the major nations instituting such lockdowns would be:
— the months around and following May, June and July of 2020, — the months around and following September 2020 thru October 2021, — the months around and following February thru October of 2021 (yes, there is overlap with “end” of second period of lock downs in different countries).
You do understand that just about everything published on climate is pretty much worthless? And you will not find a paper yet, because this is my discovery.
And as far as the excitation of the Holocene interglacial that we are in. There will never be any answers to explain the timing of glacial / interglacial sequencing. The current literature about such things is a box of straws dumped out in zero G.
Antarctica moved over the South Pole 35 Million Years ago and set up some nice sea level oscillations that created a lot of oil and gas along the worlds coastal plains. The North and South CO2 and Temp proxies are entertaining, but inaccurate to such a degree that they cannot possibly bring anything to the table today, when we have the best data ever imagined being recorded.
Thats about all I have to say about the North and South pole as far as climate.
The drop in aviation from Obama’s recession brought global temperatures down to the UAH baseline. The climate science community, just says, that’s peculiar, shit happens, its weather, but its cooling, it’s not warming so ignore it.
The field of Climatology has absolutely no answers that explain the last few decades. Any temperature estimate before the 1800’s is a proxy and is woefully lacking any supporting data to attempt a model. This exercise is to attempt to find what will happens next year or a few years out, not the end of the century or last century.
This requires looking at data.
If you would like to look at the data, it is in this thread, I would be happy to answer any of your questions.
And finally, lock down periods? Aviation exhaust was cut in half over the course of a few months, that is all that is required for modeling purposes, and my model matches observed very well.
When I complete this model and remove it from the UAH, and if it then matches the solar trend.
I will send you a copy of this paper when I get it published.
In 2022, fossil fuels accounted for 82% of primary energy consumption in China and 88% in India, including 70% of total electricity generation in China and 77% in India.
Oct 19, 2023
China’s total power generation capacity reached 2,920 GW in 2023, in which coal’s share dropped to 39.9%, while the share of non-fossil fuels, namely nuclear and renewables, reached 53.9%, according to CEC’s newly published report titled “2023-2024 National Power Supply and Demand Analysis and Forecast.”
Yes but renewable’s generating capacity does not exist in reality and what it can produce is low. The capacity on a calm night is zero, which is closer to reality than nameplate.
Yes, it is rediculous to think the U.S. Supreme Court gave permission for the president to do anything he can think of.
The truth is the U.S. Supreme Court gave presidents immunity for actions that are consistent with carrying out the duties of a president.
No illegal act is included in the duties of a president, so if the president commits an illegal act, he is not immune from prosecution.
To believe otherwise is the heighth of stupidity, yet we have at least one U.S. Supreme Court Justice who believes just that. How delusional is this woman? Answer: Very delusional. So delusional that she has no business deciding U.S. law. She is divorced from reality.
This was all that needed to be said, and its sufficient. The torrents of personal abuse that preceded it just serve to dilute and diminish the real point.
If people could just confine themselves to this point, its completely convincing.
Its the end of the world as we know it
Fears for food security as Miliband pushes through Britain’s biggest solar farmEnergy Secretary’s decision to overturn planning inspectorate on project in rural eastern England sparks fury.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/07/13/fears-food-security-miliband-solar-farm/
Green MP opposes 100-milecorridor of wind farm pylons in his Suffolk constituency. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/07/06/net-zero-green-mp-adrian-ramsay-opposing-government-plans/
Labour lifts Tories’ ‘absurd’ ban on onshore windfarms. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/08/labour-lifts-ban-onshore-windfarms-planning-policy
Trump derangement syndrome
In response to the image of Trump after being shot yesterday a BBC Guest said: he looks like a football hooligan.
They can’t keep it in anymore.
No doubt, the extreme left will claim the assassin is a Trump supporter trying to blame Democrat supporters.
something I notice- others haven’t commented in the media – it looks to me that Trump turned his head a spit second before he got hit- facing the direction of the shooter- if he hadn’t turned quickly it would have hit him directly- maybe I’m wrong- just looks that way to me
I totally agree.
If Trump had not turned his head, the outcome may have been much worse than it was.
“Much worse…” As in one inch to the right at 130 yards and the bullet could have destroyed the right half of his brain!!
It is being reported in the US that the weapon was an “AR-15-type” rifle. Pretty accurate for 130 yards.
Could anyone who knows anything about ballistics believe that the little scratch on Trump’s ear was made by a tumbling 223 bullet?
The spooks have learned the lesson of the grassy knoll – eliminate the patsy before he can open his mouth.
Who knows what the aim was, how about a shared Consulate of two doddering geysers, where their handlers can run the country however they want?
Trump couldn’t act his way out of paper bag. George Bush was much more convincing during 911.
Think – murdered Kuwaiti Premies. Supposedly the entire US Intelligence community was taken in by a hoax created by the teenaged niece of the Kuwaiti Ambassador, allowing the “allies” to massacre the helpless Iraqui troops starnded without fuel or ammunition in the desert, while riding a high moral horse. Where was the United Nations and its Geneva Conventions then?
will claim the assassin is a Trump supporter
“Registered Republican” is trending all over now.
What’s really sick is the cries of “why did you miss” and the like. But the hateful rhetoric is from the right?
We have gone down a dark path in this country.
Not “we”. The radical Left has gone down a dark path. They are the haters.
I meant the collective “we” as a nation. Not everyone chose the path, but we have collectively been driven down the path whether we wanted to or not.
Sad thing is, I saw this coming more than 20 years ago. And for the last 10 I’ve said that I don’t see a peaceful end – the division is too great, and there is too much hate. Not wishing for anything, just looking at reality.
In my opinion all political parties inhabit the left and they all nurture division because that is their sustenance. Choosing independents means choosing real and harmless people over ideology.
registered republican? so he could vote in the primary for senator.
“registered” doesn’t really mean much, because of stuff like that. Apparently he has donated to Act Blue, that’s more telling to me.
Anyone else think that trying to shoot Trump will have exactly the opposite effect to that intended?
It might focus minds in the Democratic Party if this removes any remaining hope for Biden.
In such extreme moments … a person’s true character is reveled.
Trump’s true character is one of defiance and that of the un-cowed – the very qualities that anyone would want as a President of the United States.
.
It wont be a 1972 Nixon result (60.7% of the popular vote 520-17 electoral college votes) – but it’ll be closer…
Don’t underestimate the widespread, systematic, built-in cheating, such as with corrupt voter registration roles.
The voting rules are designed to enable and incentity massive cheating, such as early voting, mail in, and drop boxes
The US Constitution explicitly declares you have to a US citizen to vote in a Presidential Election, in fact, any election for federal office, such as House and Senate representatives of the US people.
Those enforceable requirements are not just optional suggestions
The Department of Injustice arbitrarily decided, after pushing by the Biden cabal, it would be a burden to show proof of citizenship, so therefore states are not required to ask, and in some states election workers are FORBIDDEN BY LAW to ask, such as Vermont, the impoverished SOCIALIST state.
Such rules are incitements to chaos, frustration and violence, make the US look like a banana republic, the laughing stock.
The US Supreme Court should immediately rule each voter is required to show proof of citizenship, to ensure the US Constitution is upheld BEFORE any voting and counting of ballots.
The U.S. House of Representatives passed the “Safe Act” last week, that requires that a person has to be an American citizen in order to vote in an American federal election.
President Biden has vowed to veto the law if it comes to his desk.
Democrats are not democratic, they are authoritarian.
They want their systemic, voting cheating structure to remain in tact, to maintain/increase their total command/control of the federal government.
They are willing to vilify, bull’s eye, lawfare, put in jail, and assassinate to protect it from challengers
It takes a minor cynic to believe, the Deep State aided/abetted the assassination attempt on Trump, by recruiting a weak, impressionable mind to do the dirty work, then snuff him out immediately after he fired about 9 shots.
Why was that roof, with a clear line of sight of the podium, available to an assassin with a rifle, and not occupied by police?
Why did police and Secret Service ignore a warning by a spectator, someone was climbing on that roof with a rifle?
Investigators, including of the Secret Service, will undertake to investigate the assassination attempt.
These same investigators have moved heaven and earth to harass Trump legally and politically for much of the last eight years.
Is there any evidence, Merritt Garland’s Justice Department has been fair and impartial about anything, especially regarding Trump?
As always, the investigators will double dog dare anyone to question their integrity. The lapdog Media will be enlisted to help out.
the Deep State aided/abetted the assassination attempt on Trump, by recruiting a weak, impressionable mind to do the dirty work,
Ever watch the movie “Shooter”?
I don’t trust the FBI to do the investigation. they have been anti Trump since 2016 ….they are good at lying too!
“Why was that roof, with a clear line of sight of the podium, available to an assassin with a rifle, and not occupied by police?”
And how did the shooter know the roof was “un-manned” ?
He seemed to know which building to use.
Cheatle needs to resign. She’s a DEI hire.
No need for minor cynics, just a fully functional mind.
Have you seen the photo of the “shooter”? It shows someone who doesn’t even know how to hold a rifle, let alone aim it.
His firearm (if that’s what it is) is pointing up, not down. Whatever he’s “aiming” at, it can’t be Trump. There’s no evidence of a riflescope, and no amateur would-be sniper would use a stock AR15 for a 100 yard head shot, nor would he be wearing glasses and unbound long hair.
The only picture I’ve found doesn’t have enough detail to distinguish the alleged AR15’s stock from the action. but if the stock is visible, he doesn’t have it against his shoulder. and if it’s the action, he’s got his cheek on it. I don’t think he’d get more than one shot off like that, and be lucky to hit anything except the ground or the roof.
At least three of the shots were fired in burst mode, ie. not from a stock civilian AR15, unless it had a bump-stock, which they would have mentioned.
As for Trump’s ear wound, my guess is it’s self-inflicted, probably facilitated by a shot of local anesthetic before the show began.
As the old saying goes – who benefits? Certainly not Biden, unless he’s sold out and is in on it. Have to wonder whether the three collateral hits were random (like the thousands of Palestinians), or a side dish of score settling?
There was definitely professional sniping at work, but the patsy didn’t get to shoot anybody.
Trump already lost anywhere that has vote by mail. Not absentee voting, mind you, that’s allowed everywhere, but vote by mail where ballots are mailed to everyone.
Election month is a direct result of Covid 19 fear mongering.
There is no other reason to justify the loss of ballot custody.
When the custody of ballots is lost, democracy is lost. You cannot guarantee one man one vote to anybody because you just don’t know where the ballots went.
The real ballots went into the shredder, the fake ballots, all for Biden, were counted, as shown by the pro Biden blips in graphs
That was just one way of many, the Democrat party used to pull off a coup d’Etat in the 2020 Election
That is why they kept Biden in the basement, because he was a bumbling puppet even in 2020. They knew his track record.
All his bumbling has gotten so bad, the Deep State has decided it harms their world domination goals going forward
So out with Biden, in with Harris, or whatever other warm body, that can “defeat” Trump,
However, the airhead Harris option was deemed too risky, so either in jail, or assassinate was left.
Even that frequently used latter option the Deep State blew.
Vote early and vote often =Democrats.
Every Western leader has had to sympathise, for some I’m sure it wasn’t easy.
Well all those who called him a threat to democracy and Hitler will be cringing right now. Bottom line is the secret service effed up bad not manning that roof and then there were precious minutes lost as the outsiders were warning of the gunman clambering on the roof-
God must have been watching down on Trump: Israeli Special Operations veteran (youtube.com)
The insiders would have been scanned for weapons but that obvious unmanned roof has cost one innocent life and a couple more injured and maybe fighting for life.
In any case the elder abusers and woke idiocracy are going down big time with their weasel words now-
‘Lost all contact with reality’: Amanda Seales called out over claims Trump shooting was ‘staged’ (youtube.com)
I think that one of the defining characteristics of Progressives is a dysfunctional personality as evidenced by a disconnect with reality.
Reagan’s assassination attempt in 1981 had that effect on me. But that was a totally ‘nother country.
Still, it’s hard to imagine how being a survivor of an assassin’s bullet that drew blood could be a negative consideration for undecided voters. It might give a push for disaffected Biden 2020 voters to get on the Trump train as well.
The really interesting question is who was behind this? An three letter agency? a foreign power?
The extremists at the DNC immediately pulled their “innocent”, inciting, bullseye, attack ads, after Trump was shot.
It would have been too politically obscene to have those being aired, ad nauseam, by the lapdog Media, while the US people are in a state of shock
https://redstate.com/bonchie/2024/07/14/in-the-aftermath-of-an-assassination-attempt-on-trump-the-press-n2176829
How can the Secret Service be so incompetent? When an agency performs basic duties so poorly, in invites conspiracy speculates. See Jeffery Epstein prison suicide if you want another example.
https://justthenews.com/government/security/congress-launches-instant-probe-trump-assassination-attempt-demands-answers
DEI
How could NORAD have been so incompetent as to fail to intercept a single hijacked commercial airliner, let alone four?
The ‘news’-media promoting daily screeds against Trump and Republicans, offered up as “opinion” pieces, and thereby influencing impressionable, immature minds.
Something that I have recently observed on MSN, is that there are commenters, without a single ‘Like’ on their current comment, showing a history of over 118,000 ‘Likes, for an average ratio of about 9:1 Likes/Comments. It is improbable when an articulate commenter more typically has a ratio of about 2:1. When I questioned such abnormal ratios (there were others) and rhetorically asked if they might be paid trolls, MSN refused to publish my comment, despite many accepted comments being borderline ‘Hate Speech.’
Our old climate friend Naomi Seibt, minutes after the assassination attempt posted this on Twitter:
https://x.com/i/status/1812287901356658962
Thanks for that.
Here in the US I hadn’t heard much from her recently.
How about a young deluded fool thinking he would be famous for shooting Trump, imprisoned, but a hero to many…though the plan didn’t seem to work out for him…
DM,
That is also my uninformed, distant reaction, but of course it is too plain and it lacks the potential for alarm and indoctrination by evil people. Geoff S
Trying to shoot, or actually shooting Mr. Trump?
I think the downvotes on TYS’s comment are unwarranted, if I’m understanding the statement correctly. The shooter didn’t just try, he actually did shoot Trump, even if the injury (fortunately) was minor.
Tony_G, exactly . . . thank you for using logic instead of just a visceral reaction to my short post.
A week or so ago I visited a museum on one of the islands in the Baltic Sea, nothing remarkable in that, however, one of the exhibits stated that it had been warmer and more humid in medieval times.
I didn’t think they were allowed to say that nowadays…
I don’t think they received the memo
If it is valid to indict Trump for inciting an insurrection for telling supporters to ‘fight like hell’ to save their country.
Why is not valid to indict Biden for inciting an assassination for telling supporters ‘it is time to put Trump in the bulls-eye’???
Joe can plead diminished responsibility
Or he can stop his ropeadope act, and plead guilty and resign, before being impeached
Because SCOTUS says the President is allowed to do that.
Rather SCOTUS determined that there is a difference between official acts and unofficial acts.
.
Are you suggesting that “it is time to put Trump in a bulls-eye’ is an official presidential action?
In practice, the distinction is meaningless.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXQ43yyJvgs
Edit:
To be clear, yes that probably does qualify as an official act, and that is definitely not a good thing.
Assassination of a political opponent has never been considered an “official act” by any civilized society. Without one’s constitutionally protected “day in court,” it is simply murder. At the very least, it should lead to impeachment and removal from office.
Clyde,
Throughout political history bodily harm including terminal has been used many times for poliricalgain.
Yet, when one hears the plaintive post-shooting statements by global p;olitical leaders, most say something like “Violence canot be part of a true democracy”
Why is there this preference for a wish, rather than a recognition of a historic problem? Geoff S
Yes, realistically, assassination has often been resorted to, particularly for dictators, because there were usually no alternatives. However, in a free state, there are alternatives, such as an election. However, my point was that extralegal actions have rarely been encouraged, and if an attempt fails, the powers-that-be will look upon the attempt very seriously.
“… I come not to praise Caesar, but to bury him.”
Are you seriously so soul-dead that you can’t give it a rest even for a few hours after an assassination attempt? Pathetic!
It’s a simple statement of fact, SCOTUS has essentially given the president the power to assassinate whoever he wants for whatever reason without any fear of prosecution.
Now you’re just gaslighting.
You have brown eyes, right? They have to be because you are SO full of excrement!
You’re smarter than that, aren’t you? No serious person believes that.
You mean like Obama did?
But simply put you are lying. SCOTUS did not do that. Within the Constitution there are no articles or sections that indicate the president can kill “whoever he wants”.
Check my link above.
You are, BTW, disagreeing with the dissenting opinion of several SC justices.
There were only 3 of them, all of the insane leftist faction.
The three parrots – Tweedledee, Tweedledum, and Tweedledumber – squawking the Party Line.
The Executive Office is supposed to enforce the laws passed by Congress. That is why emergency Executive Orders should be confirmed by Congress. Being Commander In Chief, gives the President powers that others don’t have. That doesn’t excuse simple murder, for which the President should answer to Congress. It falls under the definition of “other high crimes.” Applied properly, the “immunity” confirmed by SCOTUS should be a shield against ‘Lawfare’ that impedes executive action, not as a release from criminal responsibility that has nothing to do with enforcing the laws passed by Congress.
given the president the power to assassinate whoever he wants
You obviously didn’t read the decision, only the dissent, if you read anything at all.
Actually SCOTIS has sent the matter of Presidential immunity back to the lower courts for consideration amongst the various legal actions launched against Trump.
These lower courts must now consider whether any alleged action falls within a President’s 1) core constitutional powers, 2) within the periphery of his powers or 3) outside his powers.
If an action falls in the 1st the President has absolute immunity, in the second a ‘presumptive’ immunity and no immunity for the 3rd.
.
Clearly you read the cliff notes of the dissent and not majority ruling.
Only if it is an official act of his office
No, they did not. One emotionally compromised justice claimed but it’s not in the decision anywhere.
Because SCOTUS says the President is allowed to do that.
You are part of the problem.
Because Biden never said that.
Do you ever check before making stupid claims?
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/07/08/congress/defiant-biden-tells-donors-were-done-with-the-debate-00166834
Re-stated in the words that were really in your mind –
“I don’t want it to be true that Joe really said something as damning as this”
It is truly amazing the lies people will tell to affect politics.
“So, we’re done talking about the debate, it’s time to put Trump in a bullseye,” Biden said
Joe Biden said this on July 8, 2024. It was said to hundreds of top Democratic donors and bundlers in the president’s National Finance Committee.
It is truly amazing the lies people will tell to affect politics.
To themselves, and regardless of evidence to the contrary. How many things do they believe Trump said that he never actually said?
It’s true Biden said that. And it is also true that Trump mocked Pelosi’s husband after he was attacked with a hammer in a political attack.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DR7LHOfSA_k
And his son’s post was despicable.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/donald-trump-jr-mocks-paul-114116350.html
For the record I am against any political violence including what happened yesterday…. but it is funny how things come back to bite politicians.
I’ll note Biden rang Trump to see how he was yesterday. The act of a gentleman. I wonder whether Donald rang Paul Pelosi?
You FAIL yet again
” Posting to his social media platform, Truth Social, on Saturday, Trump’s first reaction to the footage was far from the mockery and conspiracy-mongering of other right-wing figures, with the former president seeming to express outrage at the “nasty” footage.
https://g.newsweek.com/www/images/newsletter-white.svgNEWSLETTER
Gay couples can be so argumentative, can’t they.!
Failure is all he has.
You are such a silly man. You post stuff that shows a violent attack by a psycho, then repeat the gay bullshit. Then you post another link that doesn’t work. And you call me a failure. Now address my point or don’t waste your time responding. Why is it OK for Trump to mock Pelosi’s attack?
It’s true Biden said that.
So where is the condemnation? Or does Biden get a pass?
Biden already got a pass. He can’t be charged with mishandling secret documents as a private citizen because he is unable to understand the charges against him.
I agree he should not have used those words. No excuse for it.
Thank you, Simon.
did he say that?
Gosh the Donald was lucky! What a near miss. Pity for the casualties. What about future gun legislation? As a Brit where possession is illegal unless certificated, I think America is deranged about guns.
There’s a whiff of the Wild West…
But it’s up to them, we may not have the guns but we do have the knives and machetes etc. Every day.
The American Left is deranged about guns. Predictably, the jurisdictions they reliably control have the highest levels of ‘gun violence’.
Exactly.
Toughest gun laws in Obama’s home town I believe?
You may not appreciate it, but guns in America are one hurdle against a global tyrannical government.
If millions of Patriot Americans did not have guns, when the British army was marauding the “Colonies”, we, Americans would all be UK citizens, and that would really be the pits.
History is sometimes determined by inches.
Unfortunately, neither the good peoples of the US nor the UK have been vigilant in protecting their liberties.
Yes. They have abdicated their democracies in favour of private power cartels. Ie. political parties.
It isn’t easy being an Englishman…. thanks to American critical theories that have been exported
Misery loves company – I’m fairly certain the precursor to the various ‘critical theories’, i.e. Postmodernism, initially reached our fair shores from Germany.
Frankfurt School
The “Battle of New Orleans” was fought 3 weeks after the Ghent peace treaty was signed. But colonial terrorists fired on the British columns returning to Europe. Forced to occasionally return fire despite orders to march directly to waiting ships, there ended up being nearly 2000 casualties. This according to my great grandfather’s 120 year old British history book.
When Napoleon led his 250,000 bedraggled, underfed, under-armed troops from Moscow out of Russia, only 20,000 were left to cross the French border, due to Russians picking off the horses and the laggards for 800 miles.
France never recovered its “greatness” til this day.
The current greatness is a Potemkin facade.
The same is true for the UK
3 weeks? How long did take for the news of peace to reach everyone back in the day of sail?
Who knew they were at peace? Only the British but not the Americans?
The Battle of New Orleans happened because neither side knew the war was over.
(Reminds me of stories of Japanese soldiers finally surrendering in the Philippines a decade or so after the WW2 was over. They were devoted to The Emperor but just never heard or were convinced he had surrendered.)
There was a Japanese soldier found in Guam during the 1970’s.
Well, the British basically authored the treaty of Ghent, made arrangements for it to be signed in Brussels, transported signatories including Americans to Brussels by ship, so they must have known weeks before the actual signing what the intent was, and sent their troops to the waiting ships assuming peace would be declared…remember you are taught revisionist history in school.
Just like US joining WW1 and WW2 was for “peace, justice, and freedom” from oppression….when analysis of the economics shows that many American businesses would be bankrupted if Europe was beaten by the Germans and huge debts for war materials were starting to look like they might not get paid….
Lexington and Concord happened when the British, oppressive back then, where marching to confiscate the arms colonist in Massachusetts had stockpiled. (They had their own personal guns and ammo. Lots of hunting back then to put food on the table.)
Some farmers said, “No”.
Is the world better off or worse off from their stand?
(WW1, WW2? We became steadfast allies.)
Have you thought about banning knives, too? Keep your British BS over there. You have more than enough problems with becoming an Islamic state.
Cricket bats, too!
Nope, it’s not the guns, it’s the culture that creates so many homicidal maniacs that’s at fault. America has always had guns.
“it’s the culture that creates so many homicidal maniacs”
It’s also the culture of radical Leftists to not lock these maniacs up, either.
So the leftwing media creates homocidal maniacs by exposing people to leftwing, violent “entertainment, song and hateful speech”, and then lets them run wild in the streets.
The Radical Democrats are the real problem with our society. They are deranged, and following their lead ends in disaster.
If they take law-abiding Americans guns away, then only the crazy people will have guns. Crazy people don’t care about, and won’t pay attention to, laws and restrictions.
I have a gun. One night a burglar broke into my house in the middle of the night. He made his way to my bedroom door where I proceeded to cock the hammer back on my gun. The criminal heard the noise and understood what it meant, and turned around and ran just as fast as he could back out the door he broke into, never to be seen again.
I didn’t have to kill anyone or even shoot my gun and look how handy it came in for me. That burglar won’t be coming back to my house.
Not sure what he would have done if all I had was a knife on me.
“I have one job and that’s to beat Donald Trump,” Biden said. “We’re done talking about the (June 27) debate. It’s time to put Trump in the bullseye.”
Seems that someone took Brandon literally.
We are so “deranged about guns” we are no longer ruled by Britain.
Oz had a massive gun buyback after the Port Arthur Massacre in Tasmania and that was going to fix the problem. Now it seems Australians prefer to be stabbed to death by murderous types if you tune into the daily news. Strange preference if you ask this trap shooter.
What a crass comment
It has been reported that explosive devices (generally illegal) were found in the shooter’s car. Would you prefer that a deranged person resort to unselective explosives with probable higher casualty rates? It appears that the shooter’s father bought the rifle for him, suggesting that Pennsylvania has a minimum age requirement of 21 to own a firearm. The father has lost a son, and may spend a long time in jail for a bad decision. That will be the immediate fall out.
Yes, I’m curious to see the fallout from the fact that the father bought the AR-15 rifle.
Did he buy it for the shooter? Or did he buy it for himself and then the shooter took the rifle without permission?
The latest info’ that I have seen was that the father bought the rifle 11 years ago, when his son was 9. So, it appears that it was legally owned by the father and it is inconceivable that he would have given permission for his son to use it if he had told his father what he wanted it for.
This kid got ahold of a gun his father owned.
Haven’t heard much about his family.
Donald Trump survives obvious assassination attempt.
Idiot Biden refuses to say this was an attempted assassination.
Shooter is killed on a nearby rooftop by a Secret Service sniper.
Secret Service and police had been warned minutes before the shots but failed to do their jobs.
They were also incompetent for ignoring the roof before the speech.
The shooter was named by the New York Post as Thomas Crooks of Bethel Park, PA in the Pittsburgh Metropolitan area.
The National Pulse has found Federal Election Commission (FEC) data matching the name to a location in Bethel Park, which–if the same person–shows the shooter was a donor to the Progressive Turnout Project through ActBlue, a left-wing political fundraising platform. The Progressive Turnout Project helps to elect far-left Democrats to Congress and other offices.
Eight years of leftists demonizing Trump as a fascist, comparing him to Hitler and calling him a threat to democracy.
Now leftists will act surprised that someone tried to kill Trump.
And they will soon try to ban guns and cancel the second amendment.
The Guardian puts it like this:
“”Trump rally shooting””. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2024/jul/13/trump-rally-gun-shots-pennsylvania-latest-updates
‘Sad day for America’: Sky News host blasts CNN coverage of attempted Trump assassination | Sky News Australia
see how often the leftists have called for this.
“Eight years of leftists demonizing Trump as a fascist, comparing him to Hitler and calling him a threat to democracy.
Now leftists will act surprised that someone tried to kill Trump. ”
I think we can expect to see on Fox News, every instance of a Democrat or leftwing media type demonizing Trump over the last eight years is going to be replayed and replayed. The Democrats are not going to be able to escape the fact that they have agitated the psychos in our midst to commit violence by calling Trump a modern-day Hitler, and a threat to Democracty and the U.S. Constitution.
Words have consequences. Let’s hope the bad consequences happen to those who deserve it, the radical, lying, violent Democrats who have constantly demonized Trump for political purposes.
This incident just makes Trump stronger. Trump’s former White House doctor, says Trump came as close to dying yesterday as you can without actually dying. Trump turned his head at just the right moment and the bullet grazed his ear rather than entering his skull. I think the Good Lord is watching over Donald Trump. And those of us who think he is the solution to our problems.
And the Secret Service has a lot of explaining to do. Why wasn’t the rooftop the shooter used guarded? It is an obvious sniper position.
And there are reports that the Trump organization asked for increased Secret Service personnel several times in the recent past and was turned down by the Biden administration.
And how did this shooter know just where to go at the Trump rally?. He didn’t live in that area, but it appears he is familiar with the area.
As near as I can tell the shooter got off about seven shots. He was using an AR which holds 20 or 30 rounds in a clip. So it looks like the Secret Service snipers got him before he could empty his rifle.
It’s been reported that President Trump’s bullet proof vest also took a round. A shooter getting as close as 400′ is indeed suspicious.
A shot taken by the vest appears to be false information. The shooter appears to have fired from ~450′.
Can you imagine the reception Trump is going to get at the Republican National Convention Thursday? I bet it’s going to be Epic.
But now we’re not talking about going 25th Amendment on Joe Biden’s ass. That is, we changed the headlines for a few days or weeks. The media is now talking about something else.
That’s true. The media (the rightwing media anyway) is going to be talking about the radical Left’s demonization of Trump now, which is not a good look for the radical Left.
CNN and CNBC have already tried to twist Trump’s calls to “fight” as he taken off the stage as, somehow, a call for violence.
And they’ve given Joe a pass for saying, “I have one job and that’s to beat Donald Trump,” Biden said. “We’re done talking about the (June 27) debate. It’s time to put Trump in the bullseye.”
Why would Republicans want to invoke the 25th amendment on Biden? At this point he may be the easiest candidate to beat. I suspect that Harris can read a teleprompter accurately and avoid cackling if the occasion demands it. Biden simply can’t perform on demand. He’s like the windmills and solar panels he loves so much. Not dispatchable.
I see where they talked to a school mate of he Shooter’s and he said the Shooter was bullied in school.
When I saw the first picture of the shooter, I said to myself, this guy has been bullied all his life.
So he is a social outcast which may have driven him delusional and he bought into the violent leftwing demonizing of Trump and decided *he* would be the hero and take Trump out. That’s my take on it.
There are lots of psychos out there that are easily influenced by hateful propaganda. The radical Left should refrian from their violent rhetoric and quit agitating the psychopaths on the Left. But, of course, they won’t stop, it’s the only thing they have to attack their political opponents since they have no viable policies that anyone would want to vote for.
bought into the violent leftwing demonizing of Trump
Some reports today that he wrote about “have to stop Hitler”
The latest issue of National Review has a picture of Trump morphed into Adolf Hitler.
Biden is currently pulling all his political advertisements from tv since they all demonize Trump to one extent or another, so they are trying to prevent the American people from seeing that there really is an ongoing demonization of Trump by Biden and the radical Democrats. Now, they want to hide that fact from the American people. Understanbly so, since it is such an ugly picture of the radical Democrats.
My brothers told me that you can indeed find killer mail from zero’s on “the radical left”, on X today. OTOH with Predecessor and his minions, it’s a feature.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/07/donald-trump-democracy-dictator/679006/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=author-david-frum&utm_term=Author+Following+-+David+Frum
The cretinous, slithery, slimy, oily blob cites the ultra-leftist Atlantic.
Not unexpected.
Classic messenger killing. Might want to research “ultra leftist” David Frum, a former Republican presidential speech writer. And I can see why you diss the Atlantic. It started as a an abolitionist publication and is now the oldest in the land.
And of course, NO credible rebut to anything in the article…
When the messenger is know to be a radical leftist piece of oily, slimy human .. Why not. !
There is nothing credible in the article to debunk, it is written from an ultra-leftist scum point of view.
You know that.
That is why you posted the link.
killer mail from zero’s
Elected representatives and their staff are not “zero’s”. Celebrities are not “zero’s”. The violent rhetoric specifically against Trump goes back to 2016, but it never seems to get called out by the left, and by left-leaning media. Instead, it’s always thrown back on the right.
As usual, the left never takes responsibility for its own actions.
“Elected representatives and their staff are not “zero’s”. Celebrities are not “zero’s”.”
If they counsel violence they are. Thankfully, even if you could provide an actual example, it would be such a small fraction, compared to their Predecessor idolizing counterparts, that it would only reinforce my point.
“The violent rhetoric specifically against Trump goes back to 2016..”
Examples? Yes, I’m sure you can find the odd X loser. Just not the orders of magnitude higher number of those, both prominent and not, Mussolini’ing for Predecessor.
“
You’re drooling, blob.
it would only reinforce my point.
Mussolini’ing
And you squirm out of it. I certainly could provide examples but what’s the point when you’re simply going to dismiss them like you just did?
You are the problem. You are willing to accept violent rhetoric. You buy into hysterical BS written by vile hateful creatures.
You have already staked out your position before I provide any evidence, so why should I bother? Discussion is useless with such a closed mind.
“I certainly could provide examples but what’s the point when you’re simply going to dismiss them like you just did?”
I certainly could provide examples but my mom’s calling me.
“You are the problem. You are willing to accept violent rhetoric. You buy into hysterical BS written by vile hateful creatures.”
Well, I just said the opposite. Repeatedly. And you continue to worm out on providing an y examples of those (pearl clutch!) “vile, hateful, creatures.”
“You have already staked out your position before I provide any evidence, so why should I bother?”
You should “bother” because it is your BS claim. Once again, per Chris Hitchens:
“That which can be asserted without evidence, can be dismissed without evidence”
Oh, BTW, this is what happens to those vanishingly few Democrats who spout “violent rhetoric”.
https://www.supertalk.fm/rep-bennie-thompson-fires-staffer-after-controversial-posts-over-trump-attack/
There’s a video on Rumble here: Secret Service Snipers Reaction to Trump shooter (rumble.com)
that shows Secret Service snipers already aimed at the assassin before he shoots. You can even see President Trump’s reaction to getting hit near the bottom of the screen before the SS shoots, without even re-aiming their rifles. It’s like they had orders not to shoot first.
What doesn’t kill him, makes him stronger. So, several billionaires are probably reassessing their support of lawfare against Trump.
I am pretty sure I remember Tucker Carlson saying that if the lawfare fails, the next step is assassination.
RE: The Secret Service:
https://justthenews.com/government/security/congress-launches-instant-probe-trump-assassination-attempt-demands-answers
ex-SS agent Dan Bongino calls for the Bidenista SS director to resign:
https://x.com/BonginoReport/status/1812296491974725835
Dan said the Trump organization requested more Secret Service coverage at Mar-a-Lago, and the Secret Service Director supposedly said she wasn’t going to send exta Secret Service people to guard a nightclub.
Biden has never fired anyone in his administration. He should fire the Secret Service Director.
The U.S. House of Representatives has called for the Secret Service Director to testify before Congress a week from tomorrow (Monday).
Dan Bongino and other former Secret Service Agents have a lot of dirt to dish on the leadership of the Secret Service. The hearing ought to be very interesting.
The video doesn’t look right. The news media videos show bunting behind the podium, and no building. The resolution is poor in your link, but it still doesn’t look realistic. There has been so much mis-information — on both sides — that I’d take the video with a large grain of salt.
I came across a high-resolution video supplied by the WSJ, showing two sniper teams on the north and south ‘barn’ roofs, both teams were pointing their rifles and spotting scopes in the direction of the deceased shooter. It appears that at least the north sniper shoots almost immediately after the assassin shoots Trump. That does raise the question of why they were already surveilling the position of the young man and didn’t attempt to neutralize him before he had a chance to shoot. Surely, the team’s spotter had a scope powerful enough to see the rifle and deduce the intent. Hopefully, a lot of questions will be asked — and answered adequately.
https://news.yahoo.com/news/secret-faces-serious-questions-security-155157478.html
Why was a roof that close, un-manned ?
How did the shooter know he could use that roof ?
It seems to have been, at best, a serious oversight to not secure the roof. Even Hollywood gets it right all the time.
He probably scouted the area ahead of the rally. Second choice, had it been secured, might have been a tree.
My question is, regarding the security, how did this kid crawl out on a white roof without being stopped before he killed and wounded innocent people?
Apparently there is video of people actually pointing him out to law enforcement before he started shooting.
A local police officer climbed the ladder to check the roof out, and the kid pointed the rifle at him, forcing him back down the ladder. The kid then opened fire.
I hadn’t heard that before.
If true and he radioed in, that might explain why the SS snipers in a video seemed to already have their guns pointed in that direction.
(That makes me wonder if the SS “rules of engagement” require a shot be fired before they respond with lethal force?)
I recall reading this morning the answer to this question is “yes”.
SS “rules of engagement”
Real Clear Politics reported that a source from the SS told them this is the case. Doesn’t make much sense to me.
Thanks,
Just had a look at the video slowed down to max at highest resolution.
There’s no sign of blood on his hand or on his white shirt cuff.
No way his bleeding ear was the result of being hit with a 223 bullet shot from an AR15.
As previously noted, Trump is a terrible actor. He needed to keep his hand over the right ear. Now the producers have to bully, bribe and/or discredit/eliminate all the spectators with a clear view of his injured ear to say they saw the bullet hit or shut up.
I’m guessing it will be a loooong time, if ever, before the trajectory of this “shot” is published.
Does the word “graze” have any meaning to you?
It’s what sheep do, cows too, to be fair. Seriously though, have you looked at Trump’s ears?
The little 223 round is highly unstable, from what I’ve read. It’s a battlefield advantage, in that it makes it tumble on impact, rather than just make a neat hole, creating nasty wounds which are worse for morale and logistics than clean kills.
A twig should be enough to make this bullet tumble at high speed, let alone Jumbo ears like Trump’s. He wouldn’t be asking for his shoe…
Had trouble teasing the attached still out of the fuzzy online video and then converting it to jpeg (I’d forgotten you can’t post pdfs here). It shows the second downward hand motion Trump makes, just before collapsing. My guess is that the first is the signal to start the fireworks. There’s another frame just before this one where his hand is just appearing from behind his head, and the palm is fully open.
If someone can obtain and post a clearer image of either or both, I’d appreciate it.
BTW, a review of the layout of the buildings and the two police snipers aiming at the alleged shooter suggests to me that Trump couldn’t have been shot from the shooter’s position. The shooter would have had to be aiming his barrel across the side ridge of the roof, not parallel to it, as the only picture I’ve seen shows him.
I am building a climate model primarily for the UAH data to remove all known effects, and I have modeled most of the critical events that shaped the last few decades, but the cooling in 2008, is not in Transmission, Ocean Heat, Enso or any climate metric for that matter except solar and Obama’s recession.
This model works only VIA stratospheric forcing of outgoing IR in the context of changing stratospheric aerosols and water vapor. But has no solar term integrated yet.
So, I took the OULU data inverted it and made an empirical model to make a crude algebraic compatible forcing function which I have not integrated into the model. The solar influence shows up in the stratosphere but does not show up in the troposphere.
My question is to even go down the path of solar you have to put the orbital term to compensate for Earths orbital eccentricity to show the 90+ WM^2 annual oscillation of TSI, right?
“but the cooling in 2008, is not in Transmission, Ocean Heat, Enso or any climate metric for that matter except solar and Obama’s recession”
The cooling in 2008 would have been (at least in part) the response to the 2007-2008 ‘strong’ La Niña (https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm).
I think my problem is that I am trying to get the Enso cycles from OHC. But it looks like that La-Nina cooled the atmosphere but not the oceans.
I have not looked at ocean heat content (OHC) estimates in the context of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) so cannot comment. As you probably know, the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) is one basis for defining El Niño/La Niña events where it reflects the rolling three-month average of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Niño-3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. In the figure below, I show the measured SST values themselves (not the anomalies) which is quite informative in my view. It also shows the 30-year average SST values, which are used to compute the anomaly values. The drop in SST of around 2C to below 25C in late 2007-early 2008 is clearly evident.
The ‘local’ reduction in SST during a La Niña event is primarily the result of upwelling colder waters reducing surface temperatures. In contrast, during El Niño events, the accumulated warm waters of the western Pacific spread eastwards (and poleward) and effectively shut off the upwelling colder water from reaching the surface. Another difference between processes is the duration of the higher or lower SSTs. In a strong or very strong El Niño the higher SSTs are essentially maintained for almost a whole year whereas strong La Niña events show a gradual decrease to a minimum, immediately followed by an increase back towards the average SST.
I’ve experimented quite a bit with OHC. I can’t get good short term variation skill out of it. It does have skill in regard to the long term trend; just not the month to month variation. I’ve found ONI or even just the monthly ENSO index to provide the best skill for the short term variation in UAH.
Experiment with volcanic forcing as well. The Climate Indicator project has the aerosol optical depth and effective radiative forcing data up through 2023 I believe. Adding the volcanic forcing helped my model.
And I’m sure you’re already doing this, but experiment with AMO, PDO, NAO, etc. data as well.
I see what you saying now, I loaded in ONI and it (2008 La-Nina) is there bigger than Dallas. Since it seems you are a data guy, here is the question.
How does an El Nino actually warm the world?
IMHO, every significant thunderstorm adds some quantity of H2O into the Stratosphere, there are several estimates as to how much on average of Water Vapor that the Stratosphere receives from convection over the course of a year. That water vapor takes 3+ years to cycle out of the Stratosphere. It would seem El-Nino’s / La-Nina perturb how much is emitted into the stratosphere and the forcing is realized globally in just a few months by the new radiative properties of the Stratosphere. Since we are blinded by monitoring CO2 over the decades, we have no direct measurements of actual Water Vapor content in the stratosphere beyond the Aqua data.
It would seem that El-Nino’s add more water vapor into the Stratosphere than normal and La-Nina emit less, and that is the mechanism of how the ENSO cycles regulate climate.
I have never heard an explanation from anyone on this topic that made any sense. I even asked Dr UAH himself and his answer should have been, I do not know.
Am I full of it?
Check it out, I got ONI put in as the oceanic H2O stratospheric input, and I have 2008 La-Nina emerging. These are just back of the napkin fixed equations. The next step is to heuristically perturb the variables for all 3 model inputs to derive at the solution that best fits the UAH global. And as to how much H2O HT injected into the Stratosphere is set at 1 trillion gallons based on various estimates. But I think that is too high.
Once transmission and ENSO perturbations have been completed. Then perturb the modeled quantity of HT stratospheric H2O to achieve the best fit.
Once I get the best fit, then remove that function from the UAH global, attempt a prediction based on Linear Prediction Coding to the desired prediction distance. Compute the new future predicted time series, and then add the modeled trend back.
1 – 3 are inputs
4 Modeled UAH global from the 3 inputs.
5 UAH Lower Troposphere Global
What emissivity do you use for CO2?
I do not use any for CO2, my analysis clearly indicates that CO2 is not a player in climate on Earth. Stratospheric Water Vapor is the only greenhouse gas that has any measurable effect on climate.
Unless I’m misunderstanding your intent I think the answer is no you don’t have to consider Earth’s orbital eccentricity. The annual cycle in solar irradiance due to Earth’s orbit has nearly the exact same profile each year. So by analyzing the temperature data in terms of monthly anomalies you have already compensated for the orbital profile of solar irradiance. Remember, there are actually 12 baselines (one for each month) that UAH uses to compute the anomalies.
Contrast this with the 11 year solar cycle which does have a different profile and so must be handled as a term in your model.
For Earth’s current orbit around the Sun, the aphelion-to-perihelion distance ratio is about 1.034, leading to a max-to-min TSI ratio of 1.069 (= 1.034^2).
The average annual solar radiation currently arriving at the top of the Earth’s atmosphere is about 1361 W/m2, referenced to the average distance of 1 AU distance from the Sun.
Therefore, the annual oscillation in TSI will have a max-min variation of (.069*1361)= 93.9 W/m^2, but that’s only relevant at top-of-atmosphere!
The larger problem you face in modeling Earth’s climate is in correctly accounting for:
— variations in areal extent and thickness of cloud coverage over Earth,
— variations in atmospheric average absolute humidity (i.e., TPW),
— variations in amount of suspended dust and aerosols across the atmosphere, and
— variations in Earth’s average surface emissivity (varying with vegetative coverage, snow coverage, ice coverage, and sea-state).
All of these must be considered in the calculations of the net reflectivity (aka albedo) of the Earth’s atmosphere and surface that establish the amount of TSI power received at top-of-atmosphere that never goes into warming Earth’s atmosphere or its surface.
Implicit in the above, the atmospheric variations in cloud coverage, humidity (water vapor), dust and aerosols affect how much LWIR power from Earth’s lower atmosphere and surfaces get transmitted through the atmosphere and into deep space.
Good luck with modeling all these factors . . . the best supercomputer climate models have not done a good job in this regard, particularly with respect to accurately modeling the effects of the many cloud types and their spatial and temporal variations. Reference the many WUWT articles related to cloud model deficiencies including constraints of their formation, dissipation and thermo-regulation (see works by Richard Lindzen and Willis Eschenback).
I agree, that is why I chose not to even play around with the troposphere, GCM’s do not work, regardless how much computer time you throw at them. I have a pretty good model that blows away anything out there, as far as outputting something accurate and useful about what the climate has in store a few years out.
I would say that to do it properly, not only eccentricity has to be accounted for, but at least the monthly if not weekly average solar elevation integrated across the Earth. (Don’t forget that the eccentricity introduces variability following the inverse-square law.) That affects the path length through the atmosphere as well as the footprint; the longer the path length, the greater the scattering and absorption. Because the surface reflectance varies in a very non-linear fashion for water, the reflectance should take into account the specular reflectance in addition to the diffuse reflectance, especially for the southern hemisphere, integrated across the whole globe. Cloudiness, notoriously, varies considerably with the time of day. It is not a trivial problem to do it right. That is one reason I haven’t tackled it. That and the fact that I don’t have ready access to my own supercomputer.
I am going a different angle, the Troposphere is essentially a state engine controlled by the composition of the Stratosphere in this model. The pain is a few years out, as far as predictability goes, and the forewarning is atmospheric transmission, global aviation and Enso.
The solar component is not really a factor as long as aviation is saturating the Stratosphere with water vapor. If and when that stops, the attempts at trying to model climate via *GCM) might actually work, but I doubt it would be possible to come up with anything useful from a GCM. At least I have not seen anything out of any climate models that would have predicted any of the droughts, freezes and unprecedented heat waves that would have been nice to have some kind of estimate a few years out for any given surface location.
That is the purpose of this model, not to try and guess how warm it will be at the end of the century, but if the potential for predictability of heat waves, floods, and Vortex breaches can be solved heuristically with AI in a decoupled and independent seasonally dependent methodology.
Transmission and Stratospheric Aerosols dictate the climatic responses that matter, and the clouds and storms associated with such activity just do what they do, they (weather) are not the cause, they are the effect of the forcing.
The fact that we are putting around 80 billion gallons of H2O into the stratosphere each year, I do not think that a supercomputer is required to model this, just the knowledge of what is at play here.
Global warming is directly caused by Stratospheric Anthropogenic water vapor from aviation, and if it stopped global temperatures will plumet, just as they did immediately following the lock down. 95 billion gallons per year down to 45 in 6 months. The stratospheric warming and subsequent breach that resulted in the Texas freeze was caused by the large drop in H2O from aviation. The subsequent massive injection of H2O into the Stratosphere by the HT eruption then pushed the world to record warmth. These two indents almost prove that stratospheric water vapor and aerosols are the control knob to Earth’s temperature.
Seems like this could be tested. Set a maximum altitude for planes over a test period. Not sure how long it would take, but definitely worth the effort.
The problem is that trying to cruise at 600+ knots through the turbulence would not work. Besides, the lock down tested that theory. The data is out there clear as a bell. The lockdown caused a massive drop in aviation in a few months. A stratospheric warming event occurred, then the Texas killer freeze.
And if there was any doubt about it, HT tweaked the experiment to the opposite state. I think all the data required is in place to validate this.
Well then, please explain what caused the global warming that has been scientifically documented to have occurred as Earth transitioned from its last glacial period into the Holocene, starting about about 12,000 year ago, well before there were any aircraft dumping water vapor into Earth’s stratosphere.
Also, I am not aware of any scientific paper that asserts global temperature “plummeted” immediately following any of the approximate end dates of the three separate COVID-19 pandemic lock down periods (ref: “Table of pandemic lockdowns” at the URL https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_lockdowns ), which based on just the major nations instituting such lockdowns would be:
— the months around and following May, June and July of 2020,
— the months around and following September 2020 thru October 2021,
— the months around and following February thru October of 2021 (yes, there is overlap with “end” of second period of lock downs in different countries).
“Also, I am not aware of any scientific paper”
You do understand that just about everything published on climate is pretty much worthless? And you will not find a paper yet, because this is my discovery.
And as far as the excitation of the Holocene interglacial that we are in. There will never be any answers to explain the timing of glacial / interglacial sequencing. The current literature about such things is a box of straws dumped out in zero G.
Antarctica moved over the South Pole 35 Million Years ago and set up some nice sea level oscillations that created a lot of oil and gas along the worlds coastal plains. The North and South CO2 and Temp proxies are entertaining, but inaccurate to such a degree that they cannot possibly bring anything to the table today, when we have the best data ever imagined being recorded.
Thats about all I have to say about the North and South pole as far as climate.
The drop in aviation from Obama’s recession brought global temperatures down to the UAH baseline. The climate science community, just says, that’s peculiar, shit happens, its weather, but its cooling, it’s not warming so ignore it.
The field of Climatology has absolutely no answers that explain the last few decades. Any temperature estimate before the 1800’s is a proxy and is woefully lacking any supporting data to attempt a model. This exercise is to attempt to find what will happens next year or a few years out, not the end of the century or last century.
This requires looking at data.
If you would like to look at the data, it is in this thread, I would be happy to answer any of your questions.
And finally, lock down periods? Aviation exhaust was cut in half over the course of a few months, that is all that is required for modeling purposes, and my model matches observed very well.
When I complete this model and remove it from the UAH, and if it then matches the solar trend.
I will send you a copy of this paper when I get it published.
Please keep us posted.
Sorry, test
Renewable news:
Analysis: China’s clean energy pushes coal to record-low 53% share of power in May 2024
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-clean-energy-pushes-coal-to-record-low-53-share-of-power-in-may-2024/
Here comes the boom: Wood Mackenzie forecasts massive solar, wind, and storage growth
https://www.renewableenergyworld.com/solar/here-comes-the-boom-wood-mackenzie-forecasts-massive-solar-wind-and-storage-growth/
Lower Cost Batteries Will Move The EV Revolution Forward More Quickly
https://cleantechnica.com/2024/07/13/lower-cost-batteries-will-move-the-ev-revolution-forward-more-quickly/
Oh my, so much is happening.
Nuclear news:
In 2022, fossil fuels accounted for 82% of primary energy consumption in China and 88% in India, including 70% of total electricity generation in China and 77% in India.
Oct 19, 2023
China’s total power generation capacity reached 2,920 GW in 2023, in which coal’s share dropped to 39.9%, while the share of non-fossil fuels, namely nuclear and renewables, reached 53.9%, according to CEC’s newly published report titled “2023-2024 National Power Supply and Demand Analysis and Forecast.”
Yes but renewable’s generating capacity does not exist in reality and what it can produce is low. The capacity on a calm night is zero, which is closer to reality than nameplate.
No danger of an awkward silence fro you, is there.
Don’t forget, in a warming world the current UK summer isn’t possible…
“”Why has summer 2024 been so cold?”” https://www.heart.co.uk/news/weather/why-has-summer-2024-been-so-cold/
Bless him, he actually believes this sales bulls***.
Why not you actually believe the SC gave double 007 status to any president to kill anyone.
Yes, it is rediculous to think the U.S. Supreme Court gave permission for the president to do anything he can think of.
The truth is the U.S. Supreme Court gave presidents immunity for actions that are consistent with carrying out the duties of a president.
No illegal act is included in the duties of a president, so if the president commits an illegal act, he is not immune from prosecution.
To believe otherwise is the heighth of stupidity, yet we have at least one U.S. Supreme Court Justice who believes just that. How delusional is this woman? Answer: Very delusional. So delusional that she has no business deciding U.S. law. She is divorced from reality.
roflmao.
Project, forecast, fantasize… make up nonsense and gibberish
Chinas renewable energy use barely registers.
No-one can afford wind and solar without massive subsidies.
EV sales are crashing and burning !
VW cutting EV jobs, other EV companies going under.
Massive depreciation on even subsided EV purchase price for only the rich.
Awkward gullibility !!
A few days old, but worth a read:
https://www.breitbart.com/sports/2024/07/09/fans-fume-after-nascar-debuts-electric-car/
Electric buggies didn’t go over very well at NASCAR.
Don’t feed the troll.
China’s, and India’s electricity use from unreliables is barely visible.
This was all that needed to be said, and its sufficient. The torrents of personal abuse that preceded it just serve to dilute and diminish the real point.
If people could just confine themselves to this point, its completely convincing.
Clown.
Did you look for any nuclear news? Two of your links are ‘might happen in the future’ We’ll see. The other is a cherry pick.
Meanwhile – a couple of other ‘might happens’:
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/constellation-talking-pennsylvania-three-mile-island-restart-sources-say-2024-07-02/
https://www.lr.org/en/knowledge/press-room/press-listing/press-release/nuclear-propulsion-could-transform-maritime-with-more-reliable-emissions-free-and-longer-lived-ships/
https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Study-highlights-benefits-of-nuclear-district-heat
However much one hates the media, it probably isn’t enough.
No wonder artists starve:
https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jul/13/artist-punches-holes-in-un-climate-report-six-hours-a-day-for-dutch-installation
Not that this is a surprise, but I have to ask if this is the first time someone has looked for fiberglass in the food chain
https://www.newsweek.com/glass-food-chain-pollution-seafood-1922314
Just as importantly, can the amount of fiberglass be traced to Sun damaged turbine blades?
Just another reason these are bad.
More lawfare and example of, only lawyers win in lawsuits:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna161167
If UHI can be so well measured in New Jersey, how can it be so well rejected by activists?
https://www.nj.com/essex/2024/07/nj-is-one-of-the-fastest-warming-states-and-this-city-is-bearing-the-brunt-of-the-heat.html
What good does wind generated power output catching up to coal when it isn’t reliable, or usable?
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna161242
Asking the bleeding obvious in Oz-
‘Will he live that long?’: Donald Trump’s safety prior to election is now ‘compromised’ (msn.com)
Elon gets it-
Elon Musk endorses Trump for first time in wake of rally shooting and calls for Secret Service chief’s resignation (msn.com)