By P Gosselin
Summer-of-Hell Check
We are almost 1/3 of the way through the meteorological summer. Time to remember the prediction made by suspect biologist Marc Benecke in spring 2024. He had predicted “a summer of hell with almost complete certainty”. We reported. As early as March 2024, some meteorologists raised concerns about this forecast.
Shortly after Benecke gave his lecture, Kachelmannwetter created a video explaining the weather conditions needed for a warm or even hot summer. This is done very calmly and the video is correspondingly cautious with forecasts. However, it is well explained that summers in our latitudes have been getting warmer for years. Germany is indeed in for a warm week, but this could end at the weekend if a cold front pushes through from the north-west.
It is not possible to reliably predict how July and August will turn out. According to Wetterkontor, June 2024 has so far been slightly too cold in Germany compared to the statistical average.
(Image: Screenshot Wetterkonto.de)
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Predictions for heat, drought, tornados, hurricanes, flooding, sea ice, etc. How often do they pan out, and is anyone keeping score?
It doesn’t matter if anyone is keeping score.
All that matters are the headlines.
Headlines are the only thing the current attention-deficient generation know
The Met Office has declared May 2024 was the warmest May on record for the UK. This despite the whole monthe being cold and grey. They claim that night time temperatures were well above average and Scotland had a warm month. So in 12 months time nobody will remember that they were conned.
Strangely there are lost of records, all ignored by the eco loons.
The continuing peddling of climate panic narrative doesn’t help with climate mitigation plans, like more nuclear power because these predictions are failing too often. Credibility is being destroyed I suspect by those who need financing for their projects. This “summer” season in Swiss alps shows just how hopeless some of these predictions turn out and generates cartoons
Quite a few “anomalies from average” of -1.6C, -1.7C etc
That’s more than the warming we are meant to be avoiding
(1.5C, according to where-ever it was pulled from).
Job done !! 😉
Can we stop all this society destroying anti-CO2 nonsense now… PLEASE. !
Humans evolved it the Tropics, they can handle heat. There are around 9 times as many deaths from cool or cold weather than from warm or hot weather.
Cold causes our blood vessels to constrict to conserve heat and that causes an increase in strokes and heart attacks, major killers, during the cooler months.
This study says worldwide there are around 500,000 deaths from hot weather compared to about 4.6 million deaths from cold weather.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(21)00081-4/fulltext
Strokes by month in the US:
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/72/wr/mm7249a7.htm
A study of heart attacks in California by month:
https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/01.cir.100.15.1630
Both show an increase in deaths during the colder months compared with the warmer months, even in California.
The part of all of those accurate and valuable statistics is, there is no carnival or circus or sporting event or Mecca pilgrimage in winter so there are no groupings of hundreds or thousands of people dying from the cold. Ergo not news worthy.
What should conjure up concern of cold is the photos of hundreds of soldiers in WWII who died, frozen, still standing. While most were wounded first, it does create a disturbing image of the effects of cold.
Tyhe first rule of gaining publicity for climate predictions: ‘if you say it will be a normal summer, average summer, normal summer, it will not go viral’.
The reason you get all this nonsense is because extremism is the daily currency of ‘news’.
3 non interdependent rules:
As Groucho Marx didn’t quite say –
Those are my predictions, and if you don’t like them… well, I have others.
My favorite is one I concocted. Others may have, too, but I know not of those.
Ask 100 people for their opinions and what do you get? 117 opinions.
There’s a new panic
Joe-matose
Good political play on words.
It’s bloody chilly in the wind this morning in East Sussex.
We have had one of the coldest late spring and early summer in living memory here in central UK.
This past week however, has been glorious real summer weather with temperatures hovering around 26 deg C.
The south coast went up to 30 or 31 deg. C which is again a very pleasant summer temp.
It has now returned to normal English summer conditions, cold drizzling this morning and temps down 10 deg C compared with earlier in the week.
We call it ‘weather’
Actually, the BBC call it a heat wave for their own personal reasons I gather.
Mr GrimNasty claims it was a record warm spring
He didn’t say which planet
Some people hold a belief and won’t be swayed by real data, just resort to ridicule.
‘coldest late spring/early summer’ claim by Rod is just delusional.
There was a brief cool spell in Spring, far outweighed by the extensive warmth.
It was however very dull/wet, without the sunshine it can give the impression it is cooler than the actual temperature.
First few weeks of June was cool, like Germany above, overall it will turn out a few tenths of a degree above/below average after the recent warm period and 2 day hot spell.
The mean CET is on course to be the hottest in the entire 360+ year series, that is the fact. Not beliefs, feelings, and anecdotes about using central heating one night.
CET has been badly corrupted by bad temperature sites in recent years.
It is also run by the highly corrupted Met Orifice.
It has become totally unreliable.. just like the UK electricity supply system.
Believe nothing they say.. they are now a major part of the AGW scam.
They have always been at the centre of the AGW scam! Remember climate gate, Director Jones has had his finger on the temperature pulse for decades now, he hasn’t changed his spots. Just because it’s now one of the warmest years ever in our short historical record- mainly in the northern hemisphere- doesn’t mean the heat is not natural or unusual.
Globally the 1.5C critical UN limit has been breached several times in recent years without much fanfare and related dangerous weather hazards, – another failed prediction-so they will have to invent another critical limit to scare us.
Just a minor clarification. The UN 1.5C is not about transients. It is about a sustained temperature rise.
To be clear, I think the 1.5C precipice is bogus.
To be clear, I believe the IPCC to be a political machine driven, behind the scenes, by the One World Order
To be clear, the politics of the summary report, which require unanimous support from more than 120 country political representatives, is driven not by science, but by the desire to impoverish the West, and play Robin Hood.
To be clear, we need to strive for the highest factual levels, the clearest and most correct use of language, to set the bar high and force the alarmists to do likewise
There is way too much bogus pseudo science being touted and, unfortunately, accepted.
I choose at this point to stop my rant..
I do observations. You can’t fiddle those.
So do i. they don’t conform to your dogmas
And of course you can fiddle observations.
Its routine.
What dogma?
I’m not a climate scientist – and these days that’s a sure sign of being trustworthy.
UK weather: When is it going to get warmer? – BBC Weather Apr 22, 2024
UK weather: when is it going to improve? – BBC Weather Jun 10, 2024
Over to you.
“It was however very dull/wet, without the sunshine it can give the impression it is cooler than the actual temperature.”
Now that you clarified that- people in the UK should get back to panicking.
Mr Grim – maybe see also https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2024/06/26/uk-high-temperature-at-chertsey-amid-a-field-of-solar-panels/ for why the CET is getting hotter. Seems that the Met Office is trying to keep the classification of the weather stations somewhat secret, as well as the new sites being less than ideal.
So: some people believe that the data is good when it isn’t. The Met Office said that May was much warmer than usual, and the lived experience of most people was that it was colder. Turns out that the nighttime temperatures were higher, and the daytime temperatures were below average (as people experienced), but the average of day and night temperatures was higher. More pronounced in Scotland than the rest of the UK.
Nighttime increased temperature is pretty indicative of UHI.
A load of statistical maths is done to try to deliver a temperature figure that can reasonably be compared year to year. Might not actually be valid, though. If the method of measuring changes (LIG to electronic) then there’s no absolute comparison possible. Integration time is critical. If the local conditions change then the accuracy also changes – this is why they class weather station accuracy from 1 to 5. Really, despite all the effort to get accurate and comparable figures, it’s actually not possible given the weather stations themselves. Thus both precision and accuracy are a lot worse than stated, and I doubt if we can determine just how far off the figures are.
Thus Rod’s lived experience isn’t delusional – it’s what he lived through. Over here in SW France it’s been a pretty cool year so far, too. Weather forecast for Biarritz 20-21°C for the next few days.
You could have broken it to MGN more gently… He is an undoubted believer. He will be upset. Oh well.
Lies, damned lies and [government] statistics. Samuel Clemens said it all.
I can not state the number of times while driving that I screamed at the radio giving the weather forecast: “Look out the window [expletive deleted]!!!”
Mild and sunny with a gentle breeze while I was driving through a torrential downpour or blizzard like conditions.
Ah. A forecast is a pre-ordained fact.
Shocking warming: 1) During the natural warming cycle coming out of the Little Ice Age, the coldest period of the 11,500 y/o Holocene; 2) Urban Heat Island effects increasingly warping the temperature record and; 3) the insertion of ill-sited, hopelessly corrupted measuring stations in the official record.
Your governments constantly lie to you in matters both big and small. Follow the money, especially between politicians and their crony capitalist enablers. Throw in Leftist/Marxist ideologues and you have a perfect storm of misinformed voters.
A much better measure is the state of one’s tomato plants. Here in BC Canada, mine are pathetic.
Fran
My tomato plants are pathetic too. As a hobby beekeeper I can also state my bees have suffered from this warmest Spring ever and I have not taken off any honey this year because it has been too cold!
Putting
the heating on in May and June is not a reflection of record heat, despite what Mr Grimnasty might think.It is so cold outside of the Tropics that almost everybody has to live and work in heated buildings use heated transportation and have warm clothes most of the year.
I don’t care about the so-called heat in Europe that won’t happen.
Where is my heat here at the top of the Gulf of St Vincent?
It is freezing.
So much for global warming, the sea is boiling etc…
I have had the gas heater running close to 24 hours to keep the house warm..
“So much for global warming, the sea is boiling etc…”
It is, just not where either you or I are. But somewhere…
Just like happy hour: It’s five o’clock somewhere!
But somewhere?
Like over Tonga when it popped?
In “Climate Crisis” everywhere is warmer than somewhere else and everywhere is warmer that average.
“a summer of hell with almost complete certainty”.
Certainty is a binary – if you are not certain, you are uncertain and there using duch th8ng as incomplete certainty. . There is no ‘almost’. It’s like pregnancy, no woman is ‘almost’ pregnant, she either is or isn’t.
Language and words do matter.
Indeed. That is why the destruction of the meaning of words is the first task of the tyrant and the playbook for the Marxist.
Good one, John. I had that picked out to comment on, before I scrolled all the way down!
I have always disparaged the “95% fat free” claims. OK, so cut off the 5% fat and let me have the part that is fat free.
And what if I like fat?
Then you’ll be loving the new Leftist beauty standards for swimsuit and underwear models.
They can predict that 20 years from now cities and islands will be underwater and the Earth will be on fire, but they can’t correctly predict what will happen a month ahead of time
It was 67 F this morning (~7:00 am). Yesterday when I got in the car it was 103 F (~ 5:00 pm).
Tell me again how CO2 “traps heat”?
We just had the coldest spring I can remember in Calgary. No doubt it will still be the “hottest on record” once the numbers have been corrected.
It was warmer at night while you were asleep.
This prediction is hardly a rarity since the climate gurus, after witnessing a relatively mild and dry winter on the Canadian Prairies, pronounced with certitude that the entire region and probably beyond was in for a hot, drought-plagued summer. So here we are at the end of June and rainfall across it has been above normal, while temperatures have been slightly- or well-below average. Now we’re hearing that these conditions are the precursor of a snowy winter when temperatures could be in the sub-Arctic range probably because of the return of La Nina. In reality, they don’t know, but since many of the experts receive donations from climate alarmist groups, they’re guaranteed to blow any occurrences of climate extremes out of proportion.
I put no stock in experts and professionals.
Cool and wet here on the canadian prairies
down 5C tonight on July long weekend.
only been a couple nice days so far
Six years ago I could see that the UK would have poor summer weather periods for 2023 and 2024, using solar based analogues. Prediction details for last summer, a hot June, a washout July and much of August followed by a heatwave early September were all good. For this June I predicted negative North Atlantic Oscillation conditions 6-16th June, which worked out well.
From a farmers perspective, the real summer of hell’ would be a wet-cool July, August, and September to follow.
My neighbors were going to a town in Northern Italy on vacation, unable to make it there due to the storms, apparently that village was being evacuated by helicopter due to damage by land slides. Appears to be very severe weather there at the moment.
https://news.sky.com/story/four-dead-after-flooding-and-landslides-in-switzerland-and-northern-italy-13161278