Expected unserved energy, ESOO Central scenario, 2023-24 to 2032-33. Source AEMO, Permitted use. Annotations "Your grid reliability is stuffed zone" and "Enhanced risk of blackouts" added by Eric Worrall. Unserved energy (USE) represents energy that cannot be supplied to consumers when demand exceeds supply under certain circumstances, resulting in involuntary load shedding (loss of customer supply) in the absence of out of market intervention, such as the Reliability and Emergency Reserve Trader (RERT)12 or other voluntary curtailment.

Aussie Renewable Investment Slumped 80% in 2023

Essay by Eric Worrall

Rooftop solar / battery installations were the exception. Perhaps Aussie households are preparing for the coming grid failure?

Australian renewable sector recorded ‘alarming’ slowdown in 2023, energy body finds

Peter Hannam Wed 13 Mar 2024 01.00 AEDT

Investments in renewable energy plants showed an “alarming” slowdown in 2023, with financial approvals for new solar farms shrinking more than a third while no new windfarms won backing, the Clean Energy Council said in its annual report.

“There were no new financial commitments to utility-scale wind projects in 2023 (compared to six in 2022) – a disheartening situation that needs to be addressed,” the council said. The seven new solar projects with 912 megawatts of capacity last year was down from the 1.5GW in 10 solar farms in 2022.

On a rolling 12-month average, investment in the December quarter sank to the lowest level since the council began gathering data in 2017, dipping below $1bn.

Slow approvals, though, including in states such as New South Wales, mean the decade-end target of supplying 82% of electricity by renewables will be challenging, Green Energy Markets said in a recent report.

By comparison, grid solar was 18% higher than in January-February 2023, while wind generation was up 5%. Rooftop solar output increased 10%.

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/mar/13/australian-renewable-sector-recorded-alarming-slowdown-in-2023-energy-body-finds

I have a friend in sunny Queensland, the same latitude as Miami, who has invested in a state of the art rooftop solar / battery combination. His rooftop solar is good for keeping the refrigerators and freezers running, running the lights and keeping the TV and computers working, but it doesn’t generate enough power to run home cooling or heating.

Of course, some power is better than no power.

This political and leadership failure is sending a dreadful signal to what remains of Australian jobs and industry. If they invest in their own generation capacity, they risk getting slapped with a carbon tax. But the grid is rapidly deteriorating towards third world levels of reliability. Option “C”, pack up and relocate their factory and facilities to somewhere with sane energy policy, must be an increasingly attractive proposition.

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Editor
March 20, 2024 2:27 am

“the decade-end target of supplying 82% of electricity by renewables will be challenging”. Nonsense, they will meet it easily – by quietly changing the target. A bit like how climate models make reliable predictions.

Reply to  Mike Jonas
March 20, 2024 5:51 am

Unreliable, unbelievable, outrageous, subjective guesses?

Nick Stokes
March 20, 2024 2:53 am

Re the diagram, the AEMO introduces the ESOO Central Scenario saying:
“The ESOO Central scenario, which incorporates the reliability forecast, assesses power system reliability considering only a sub-set of known developments which have demonstrated sufficient commitment towards commissioning in the NEM. It serves to advise on the additional development needs required to maintain reliability in the NEM. “

IOW it ignores anything new that will be started up.

Reply to  Nick Stokes
March 20, 2024 3:36 am

Makes sense to only include things that someone might actually build….

… rather than fantasy projects…

Wouldn’t you say !!

Buckshot holes in your foot again… ? Poor Nick.

Reply to  Eric Worrall
March 20, 2024 4:12 am

If they close Eraring Power Station…

…,it will only be a short time before Sydney suffers major prolonged blackouts.

That could cascade to the whole NEM if they are not very careful.

Maybe that would wake these stupid clowns up to reality !!

Reply to  Eric Worrall
March 20, 2024 6:03 am

I am reading this during breakfast, and starting to feel angry at all the idiots who voted for the present government.

In the US, Trump will win for the third time, after his win was turned into a fraudulent loss in 2020, due to a coup d’Etat.

This time he will win by a landslide, and overcome all the fraud they are planning.

He will undo all the Bull Manure the leftist idiots have been using to cripple the US, and close the border like a sardine can.

No one allowed in without documents, obtained in their own country, approved by the US, BEFORE being allowed to enter the US.

Reply to  wilpost
March 20, 2024 1:19 pm

dream on. The power structure in the US isn’t going to allow a upset any more than their beloved CCP would.

Richard Greene
Reply to  bnice2000
March 20, 2024 4:44 am

To be consistent, fantasy predictions of CAGW doom should be accompanies by

fantasy Nut Zero projects,

fantasy fusion energy,

fantasy hydrogen energy,

fantasy much better EV batteries,

fantasy Antarctica melting,

fantasy dangerous sea level rise
and
the fantasy Nut Zero engineering project with no detailed plan or funding, to allegedly stop the rise of the atmospheric CO2 level .

all supported by the fantasy that more CO2 in the atmosphere is very bad news !

Mr.
Reply to  Nick Stokes
March 20, 2024 4:49 am

Nick, do you mean like the fleet of diesel generators being started up just like South Australia has?

paul courtney
Reply to  Nick Stokes
March 20, 2024 11:04 am

Mr. Stokes: It ignores anything new that “will be” started up? Or ignores what “may be” started up? “Cause much of the “planned” start-ups are not happening, cancellations and such, Joe Biden economy drove the costs up, so what do you expect, they should guess at the future? I prefer to analyze the present.

observa
March 20, 2024 3:12 am

As you were Jeeves as there’s no rush for the upgrade now and besides the Green investments aren’t looking overly sustainable-
Bentley delays electric vehicle roll out (msn.com)

strativarius
March 20, 2024 3:13 am

Always good to see we’re in good company when it comes to going climate mental.

Why is any opposition to something now a de-facto culture war?

UK government accused of trying to ‘stoke culture war on climate issues’
Caroline Lucas has accused the government of stoking a culture war on climate issues by calling for more investment in new gas-fired power plants before a general election.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/mar/13/uk-government-accused-of-trying-to-stoke-culture-war-on-climate-issues

A new ‘style guide’ is required.

observa
Reply to  strativarius
March 20, 2024 3:44 am

Why is any opposition to something now a de-facto culture war?

Well you do have to contextualise these matters with higher moral stands-
Neil Young returning to Spotify after two-year boycott (msn.com)
Chuckle.

observa
Reply to  observa
March 20, 2024 3:53 am

PS: Poor Kneel is suffering peer reviewed scientific anxiety-
‘Wokeness’ is linked to unhappiness, anxiety and depression, study finds (msn.com)
LOL.

strativarius
Reply to  observa
March 20, 2024 4:27 am

So much for Rocking in the Free World!

Mr.
Reply to  observa
March 20, 2024 4:53 am

Well living in a constant state of being offended on behalf of other people who really dgaf about what you think they should be offended about (which is the essence of wokeness) will do that to you.

observa
March 20, 2024 3:21 am

She’ll be right mate as we’re going to become a renewables Superpower-
‘Walking straight into a trap’: Fears China will become ‘only player’ in renewable market (msn.com)

strativarius
March 20, 2024 4:02 am

Story tip:

Renault slams larger electric vehicles as ‘environmental nonsense’ and calls for smaller petrol carshttps://www.gbnews.com/lifestyle/cars/renault-larger-electric-vehicles-smaller-petrol-cars

Apparently, car manufacturers are under threat. I wonder why?

Richard Greene
March 20, 2024 4:37 am

Great reporting

I read at least one dozen climate and energy articles every day of the year. No one else mentioned this 80% reduction. I especially look for free articles from Australia, UK and Germany, as canary in r the coalmine leading indicators for the US.

All those nations are marching in the wrong direction. Being in the lead wasting money on Nut Zero is bad news.

Australia has coal and uranium for power, does not use the uranium and would rather export most of the coal where it will increase some other nation’s carbon dioxide emissions. Who does that?

Australia exports the largest share of coal of any nation, at 54% of the total. In 2020, exports of coal accounted for 1% of national revenue, with a total valu

Mr.
Reply to  Richard Greene
March 20, 2024 4:56 am

I love a suspense-filled ending to a comment. 🥱

Scissor
Reply to  Mr.
March 20, 2024 5:38 am

Wait until the power goes out.

Reply to  Mr.
March 20, 2024 7:17 am

Given the WUWT demographic, they need to collect emergency contact data upon registration. And while I’m on about tha

strativarius
Reply to  bigoilbob
March 20, 2024 8:12 am

The demographic?

And that is what exactly?

Mr.
Reply to  strativarius
March 20, 2024 8:32 am

I’m thinking that just as I was, most here would be assessed as being in the top 1% of population in verbal logic, top 1% of population in numeric logic, and top 8% of population in spatial relations proficiency.

Even BoB would make the grade I reckon.

Because he does come here often, and can usually comprehend the discussions, even if his positions on most topics are irrational.

Reply to  strativarius
March 20, 2024 8:35 am

Obviously, greatly disproportionately, CMoB’ely. But it’s harm free. All you need is a keyboard and a wifi conn, available in most care facilities. The staff gets more time for the needs of the other guests, and there’s less cloud yelling disruption.

I’m for all of that…

paul courtney
Reply to  bigoilbob
March 20, 2024 10:52 am

Mr. bob: I’m sure you like it quiet in your wing of the rest home, you and the other demented pretend oilmen.

Reply to  bigoilbob
March 20, 2024 11:40 am

Not one of oilyblob’s two brain cells was used in that comment.

Reply to  bigoilbob
March 20, 2024 11:39 am

Given the WUWT demographic”

Lots of rationally minded people with science and engineering qualifications.

… and the occasional greasy and very ignorant troll.

Reply to  Mr.
March 20, 2024 9:07 am

There are two kinds of people.
Those that can extrapolate from incomplete data…

ozspeaksup
March 20, 2024 5:02 am

the only reason rooftops stayed up a bit is govvy handouts. take that and thered be zero.
and the rebates are down to as little as 3c when charges are 32c or more and even that may be removed and auto tripping of homes to block input are coming as well. =no returns and no drawdown as its almost ALL grid connected.

March 20, 2024 5:48 am

I have a friend in sunny Queensland, the same latitude as Miami, who has invested in a state of the art rooftop solar / battery combination. His rooftop solar is good for keeping the refrigerators and freezers running, running the lights and keeping the TV and computers working, but it doesn’t generate enough power to run home cooling or heating.

How long until they breakeven on the investment?

strativarius
Reply to  Ben_Vorlich
March 20, 2024 6:09 am

Or even just break down?

Janice Moore
Reply to  Ben_Vorlich
March 20, 2024 11:43 am

Until the price of solar (installation and the costs of maintenance and replacement) accurately reflects solar’s COST, SOLAR IS A SCAM.

(Note: this is re: U.S., but, parallel situation in Australia, so relevant)

“Since rooftop solar customers pay less on their utility bills, they end up contributing less toward maintaining the grid, which they still use. That has meant the cost burden was shifted to those without rooftop solar, and often those who can’t afford it.

(Wall Street Journal, below)

“For rooftop solar companies, generous incentives were the training wheels that had to come off at some point.”

(Wall Street Journal, below)

Solar as a grid source of electricity is uneconomic, from the rooftop to the large solar arrays. So various government interventions pushed by the solar lobby must come to the rescue.

Solar’s Investment Tax Credit (ITC) offers a dollar-for-dollar federal tax credit for 26 percent of the cost of installing solar. Enacted in 2006, it has been extended several times and continue through 2023.

But then comes net metering, a local/state program that requires utilities to buy solar from the same rooftop systems–at inflated prices. …”

(Source: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/01/05/net-metering-rethink-rooftop-solar-in-trouble-a-hidden-subsidy-in-addition-to-itc/By Robert Bradley Jr. — January 5, 2022 — Emphases mine.)

Anyone involved in promoting solar should be ashamed of themselves.

Reply to  Janice Moore
March 20, 2024 1:27 pm

Who has to pay for it is a different issue from how much more difficult rooftop solar makes keeping the grid stable.

Janice Moore
Reply to  AndyHce
March 20, 2024 5:42 pm

Hi, Andy. I was addressing Ben V.’s quote about Eric W.’s friend.

Reply to  Janice Moore
March 20, 2024 4:26 pm

Actually, my bill has a “daily supply charge” which is the same regardless of any solar feed in. It is meant to cover the grid costs.

Here’s an example of an Origin Energy bill.

Trying to change my plan so I get more solar feed in credit. 😉

Electricity-bill
Janice Moore
Reply to  bnice2000
March 20, 2024 5:44 pm

Heh.

Janice Moore
Reply to  Eric Worrall
March 20, 2024 5:43 pm

Good for him. 🙂

Stu
Reply to  Eric Worrall
March 20, 2024 7:34 pm

Who does?

Around here the power goes out all the time (trees, transformers fried etc.). But I don’t want (lithium) batteries because of bushfires and anyway an off-grid system is way more expensive than a generator

Mr.
March 20, 2024 7:17 am

Story tip.

New York shut down Indian Point nuclear power plant in 2022 and now reaches the “oh shit” moment with increased emissions.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/mar/20/nuclear-plant-closure-carbon-emissions-new-york

Erik Magnuson
Reply to  Mr.
March 20, 2024 9:06 am

Always bugged me that a large percentage of the global warming scare zealots were/are the anti-nuclear zealots as well. Example #1 is John Holdren.

March 20, 2024 7:50 am

Perhaps we are getting close to closing time at the Magical Thinking Energy Bar and Grill. Last person out the door won’t need to shut out the lights.

Mr.
March 20, 2024 2:05 pm
Bob
March 20, 2024 2:20 pm

Energy production and transmission should never be left in the hands of people who can’t be held accountable. We can’t hold the government accountable therefore they must be removed from energy production and transmission.

March 20, 2024 4:33 pm

Rooftop solar / battery installations were the exception. Perhaps Aussie households are preparing for the coming grid failure?

I have recently had an exchange with my poles and wires supplier, AusNet, regarding any ongoing cost attached to going off grid wrt the daily supply fee. I now pay $1.70 per day for the supply fee and it is the most expensive ongoing charge because I am a net producer. The supply fee is a significant component in the decision to go off-grid when the feed in tariff ends.

What I determined is that Ausnet would continue to charge my last retailer for the existing meter despite them no longer requiring the data or having any means to charge me. The retailer would need to have AusNet remove the meter to avoid being charged.

So the cost of grid defection falls onto the retailer until they arrange for the meter to be removed. After that, AusNet get less income.

Household battery purchases are increasing rapidly in Australia as people realise they can make power at lower cost than the grid power. Australia is a big country and remote WDGs impose a hefty burden on consumers for the cost of transmission, which needs massive expansion.

Australia is one of the few places where off-grid solar is a real economic prospect for individual households. If households abandon the grid in number, the ever increasing grid costs will fall on fewer consumers.

It was evident that Ausnet had not thought through the consequence of households and businesses leaving the grid.

Beta Blocker
March 20, 2024 6:54 pm

A question for Nick Stokes: If the current government ministers in Oz — a.k.a. the Wizards of Oz — wanted to guarantee that their ambitious renewable energy targets are met, and on the schedule they want to see happen, then why wouldn’t they simply nationalize the power grid in its entirety and then directly procure all the renewable technology and systems needed to make their vision for a carbonless energy future a reality?

Reply to  Beta Blocker
March 20, 2024 10:02 pm

Please don’t give the closet communists any encouragement to go full stupid.

“…then why don’t they simply…” …they are probably itching to reveal their real plans, once they have totally collapsed civilization, that then requires them to become the totalitarians they truly want to be.