By Robert Bradley Jr. — February 28, 2024
“I’ve been around automotive for a long time, but I’ve NEVER seen incentives that represent 90% of new vehicle price. For a Toyota, 10% is the most I’ve seen. Yet, this is exactly what’s happening for the Toyota Mirai.” (James Carter, below)
EVs compete against hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles–at least in California where some one hundred hydrogen dispensing stations are. The range and fill-time of HFCVs is quite competitive with EVs. But it is downhill from there–and a major mess for sellers and buyers. The California Energy Commission (remember Methanol?) has failed again.
Consultant James Carter on LinkedIn summarized a recent article in Jalopnik, by Logan Carter, Toyota Offers $40,000 Discount On A Car Most People Can’t Fuel Up.” His autopsy (verbatim):
- Toyota’s innovative Mirai might just be the best deal on the car market right now, but access to hydrogen fuel is getting harder.
- Even with ~$60,000 in total discounts, Mirai is still a BAD deal.
- “The $40,000 cash incentive deal is limited to 2023 model year Mirai Limited models, and includes zero percent financing for qualifying buyers. All new Mirais include $15,000 in complimentary fuel at the time of sale.”
- I’ve been around automotive for a long time, but I’ve NEVER seen incentives that represent 90% of new vehicle price. For a Toyota, 10% is the most I’ve seen. Yet, this is exactly what’s happening for the Toyota Mirai.
Detail
Vehicle: $66,000, less $40,000 discount
Finance: $6,500 interest, less $6,500 discount
Fuel for 5 years /15,000 miles annually: $45,000, less $15,000
So, in total, this car will cost you $56,000 over 5 years, which is roughly the same as a Model Y Performance mostly charged from home. Perhaps add $5k for interest payments for the Y.
Here’s the rub: At the end of 5 years, that Model Y will be worth about $25,000. The Mirai? Likely $2,000 to $3,000, based on history. In other words, that hugely discounted Mirai is still a BAD DEAL.
Why is it still bad? Because the only Hydrogen stations are in California, and all suffer very irregular supply. In other words, there’s no guarantee you’ll get fuel when you need it. Which, unfortunately, is rule #1….
Conclusion: “Driveway Jewelry”
For FCEV, unless you stay within California, road trips are impossible. So, this car is really no more than driveway jewelry, and while it is a good looking car, I personally would still want to go places. And at that task it fails miserably.
Comment
So-called “green hydrogen” is in trouble, big trouble. Free marketeers on one side and environmentalists on the other are critical of government subsidies for greenwashing. ExxonMobil most recently has warned that without enough government subsidies, it will scrap its one-year-old plan to construct the world’s largest clean hydrogen facility. Such would be good news all ’round–even for ExxonMobil to call costs to date sunk and gear its operations to consumer demand, not transient political fads.
These idiots need to see the light and just go to alcohol fuel cells. Only way fuel cells have a chance!!!!
That would make the car an alcoholic!
Forgetting the fuel cap after filling up would be driving with an open container!
Methanol fuel cells have been tested. The carbon doesn’t react and the residue poisons the electrodes.
Really? I am disappointed to hear that – it seemed to me to be the best hope for a liquid fuel which we sort of have to have for transport. Don’t get me wrong, I have no issue with ICE, but it would be nice to have a usable electric motor vehicle for low emissions options in cities.
Batteries will never compete on a power to weight ratio and that pretty much kills them for transport. Fuel cells with a liquid H source looked like being the best option as we have an established system of distributing liquid fuels and they refill quickly.
Do you have the source for the poor output of methanol cells? I only see positive reports – but they probably come from companies making them….
All of the hydrogen fueling stations in the U.S. are along the San Andreas fault, mostly.
LoL Ha Ha! On the plus side those crazy enough to buy an undriveable vehicle and who live in the risk zone kind of deserve each other.
15,000(y) X 5(y) = 75,000mi $45,000 less $15,000 ($30,000 or $60,000???)
75,000mi @ $45,000 works out to 60¢ per mile
My car gets 30+mpg so it costs me $4.29 to go 30mi.
That H2 car would cost $18 to go the same distance
Hydrogen doesn’t like to stay in its bottle
some years ago there was a truck of it in Eugene/Springfield a valve on it was leaking and they shut down I-105 and evacuated a nearby school
Apparently the same result is possible from a leaking valve on a propane tank (“bottle”), be it on a BBQ grill, a tanker truck, or a railroad tank car.
show me
Uhhh . . . like hydrogen, propane gas is invisible.
Next.
Fire marshal: Underground propane tank leak led to Sterling house explosionhttps://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/fire-marshal-underground-propane-tank-leak-led-to-sterling-house-explosion/ar-BB1iMV9e
I remember going to an EGBC branch social evening in the late 1990’s, where we were treated to a tour of Ballard Power Systems in Burnaby BC–they had even been mentioned in a SOTU address by president Bill Clinton! At the time Ballard was testing hydrogen fuel cells in busses, and I remember being at a stop light beside one in winter. When the light turned green nobody could see it–we were completely enveloped in fog from the buss’s exhaust.
That would be at least a quarter century ago; it seems that success for automotive-use hydrogen fuel cells falls in the same category as nuclear fusion–it’s always just around the corner, much like the governor in The Best Little Whorehouse In Texas.
I’m not alone–the general attitude of investors does not imply tremendous faith in the present or future—
“Historical daily share price chart and data for Ballard Power Systems since 1995 adjusted for splits and dividends. The latest closing stock price for Ballard Power Systems as of February 29, 2024 is 3.14.
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/BLDP/ballard-power-systems/stock-price-history
Fuel Cell Energy stock exhibits similar behavior, all time high price about $7000 (split adjusted) and today’s price about $1. The average shareholder lost money but C suite, directors, banks and brokers and some employees are able to make money by harvesting options.
The technical challenges of fuel cells are similar to batteries. Robust cells are feasible but at high cost. Developing inexpensive reliable technology is not so easy.
“…inexpensive reliable technology…”
Why, that would be the ICE, right?
Just to be clear, FCE does not produce automative fuel cells. They produce stationary, fractional megawatt to 1.4 MW sized units..
The German version should be named “Hindenburg.”
“the world’s largest clean hydrogen facility.”
Exxon leadership are out of their ever-lovin’ minds. It’ll be a huge profit-sink. And hydrogen will deliver less energy than the water-gas conversion required.
Tax write-off, subsidy mining, looking like they are ‘doing the right thing’.
End result: not efficient or cost-effective.
Pat yourself on the back(try to avoid dislocation), move on to something else.
There is no such thing as a tax write-off for business. You can only deduct expenses, not pledges.
Big in Japan
They’re pushing this technology and hydrogen transport methodologies heavily in Japan and have increased hydrogen fueling stations a lot over the past few years. Current-ish numbers:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1236606/japan-hydrogen-fuel-station-number-by-region/
I’m not sure why this is although I’m following its development closely as I’m working on some technology that could be useful in the area, and I’m hoping for its success in Japan. I don’t see Toyota as doing this for virtue-signaling points, but I might be wrong.
Japan’s Eneos (not to be confused with Ineos in the UK) has just had press releases on their electrochemical process for hydrogenating toluene directly to get methylcyclohexane (MCH) as a hydrogen transporter. They are building plants in Australia and the US:
https://www.eneos.co.jp/english/company/rd/intro/low_carbon/dmch.html
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/japans-eneos-invests-into-us-clean-hydrogen-company-2024-01-11/
Good looking car as the article says:
Toyota are hedging their bets.
Building a hydrogen ICE engine requires much the same labour and technology (Block, crankshaft, cylinder head, drivechain etc.) as petrol/diesel cars.
No need to turn their factories upside down to make all EV’s.
If and when the green scam is dropped, and whether or not hydrogen is adopted, Toyota will not have sunk Billions into EV technology and can continue with a largely unchanged workforce, production lines and supply chain.
Inscrutable Japanese.
Gotta have those “good looks”, damn the practicality.
Yeah, the Ferrari SF90 has 3 electric motors, definitely for virtue-signaling to the rich lefties who run around telling everybody they’re socialists:
According to the IEA S Korea has the largest fuel cell car market with 32,000 vehicles by June 2023. US is second with 16,000 and Japan third, although less than 1000 were sold there in 2022.
By mid 2023 there were over 8000 fuel cell trucks worldwide and 7000 fuel cell buses. 95% of the trucks and 85% of the buses were in China.
Globally there were 1,100 hydrogen refuelling stations with over 300 in China, 250 in Europe, 180 in S Korea, 180 in Japan
IEA ‘Global Hydrogen Review 2023 Revised version’ (Dec 2023)
Compliancecarincalifornia
Sorry I find all modern cars and trucks very ugly. The big screens in the dash should be illegal, when you are in the car you should only be driving not watching video. A proper sized truck would be nice too. Get rid of the high bed sides so you can easily reach into the bed and don’t need set of stairs appearing out of the tailgate to climb into the bed. I miss my old 1992 F150😞
Get the government out of the transportation business. The only reason we are in this mess is because of the government. Without government subsidies, tax incentives, mandates and regulatory forgiveness non of this EV or hydrogen vehicle nonsense could possibly happen.
I’ll back you up if you expand to getting government out of the energy business.
A major issue with hydrogen-powered internal combustion engines is that they have a short lifespan. Typically, these engines last for around 20,000 km before needing to be replaced. This is due to extra wear on the cylinders caused by hydrogen fuel, which has been demonstrated in previous experiments.
I believe that the Toyota Mirai is a hydrogen FUEL CELL vehicle, not a hydrogen ICE vehicle. Which is to say it doesn’t burn the hydrogen to move pistons up and down. It combines it with Oxygen to generate electricity to drive an electric motor. Technically I think it probably qualifies as an metal (Hydrogen)-air battery that, on paper at least, has substantially higher energy density than any possible Lithium battery. I guess it might be a reasonable vehicle choice if you have a reliable source of Hydrogen and driving around next to a couple of tanks full of Hydrogen stored at 10,000 psi doesn’t make you nervous.
Personally, I’m a nervous sort. I think I’ll pass on the opportunity to buy one. Even deeply discounted.
Haven’t these clowns ever heard of The Hydrogen Bomb?…
You are right about the Toyota Mirai. The problem with this type of “battery” is that hydrogen is stored in metal-hydride, which is heavy and bulky, and dangerous in case of a car crash.
I was referring to attempts to make cars powered by an internal combustion engine, using hydrogen as fuel: no go!
The central principle is that hydrogen is not a viable energy vector.End of story.
“. . . due to extra wear on the cylinders caused by hydrogen fuel . . .”
Never, ever heard of such as long as the hydrogen-fueled ICE (not a fuel-cell powered vehicle that uses electric motors) is designed with proper oil lubrication of its piston-cylinder sliding interfaces and with proper water (or perhaps air) cooling of the metal comprising the engine block.
The product of hydrogen combustion with air is mostly water, the same substance used to externally cool the combustion cylinders.
The steam that is created during combustion washes the oil off of the cylinder walls. Just like a steam genny only internal.
Gee, really???
My understanding is that the motor oil lubrication to the piston rings and combustion cylinder walls is continuously “renewed” by the splashing that results from the crankshaft moving up and down in the oil pan as it is rotating.
Also, you are apparently unaware that burning a gallon of gasoline in an ICE produces about a gallon of water as a product of gasoline-air combustion (ref: https://www.quora.com/How-much-water-does-my-car-produce-after-burning-one-gallon-of-gas ).
Thus, you’ll have to explain how that water (created as steam) doesn’t, according to you, likewise “wash the oil off the combustion cylinder walls.”
The difference is the proportions. With H² it is all steam. That is why steam cylinders use a much different oil than a car engine.
So, does that “much different oil” prevent the combustion steam from “washing oil off the cylinder walls” (your words), or not?
Your successive posts about this are inconsistent.
Not so, that’s a common misunderstanding since we are talking about hydrogen combustion with air, not with pure oxygen.
“The combustion of hydrogen with oxygen produces water as its only product:
2H2 + O2 = 2H2O
“The combustion of hydrogen with air however can also produce oxides of nitrogen (NOx):
H2 + O2 + N2 = H2O + N2 + NOx
The oxides of nitrogen are created due to the high temperatures generated within the combustion chamber during combustion. This high temperature causes some of the nitrogen in the air to combine with the oxygen in the air.
“The amount of NOx formed depends on:
• the air/fuel ratio
• the engine compression ratio
• the engine speed
• the ignition timing
• whether thermal dilution is utilized
In addition to oxides of nitrogen, traces of carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide can be present in the exhaust gas, due to seeped oil burning in the combustion chamber.
“Depending on the condition of the engine (burning of oil) and
the operating strategy used (a rich versus lean air/fuel ratio), a hydrogen engine can produce from almost zero emissions (as low as a few ppm) to high NOx and significant carbon monoxide emissions.”
— source of above quoted text: https://www1.eere.energy.gov/hydrogenandfuelcells/tech_validation/pdfs/fcm03r0.pdf (Page 3-17)
I see you can cut and paste with the best of them.
As I said before traces don’t count. The increased amount steam doesn’t wash all the oil off, just a miniscule fraction more than usual. This over time will lead to excessive wear shortening the life of the engine. In a steam engine, with 100% steam, the rings would fail very quickly if it used standard engine oil as a lubricant. If you need to see the difference look up steam oil and compare additives.
Except for the fact that none of your posts prior to this one make any mention whatsoever of “traces” . . . let alone that they “don’t count”.
Based on this, I’ll give your advice all the consideration that it deserves.
You really are a waste of skin.
Ever heard the term “ad hominem attack”?
You’re welcome.
The doomsters got it badly wrong and we’re really running out of plant food-
Supermarket shelves depleted of soda water and soft drink amid low supply of carbon dioxide (msn.com)
Substitute hydrogen and that will really make them fly off the shelves if they don’t go pop.
Only a a trade-in for another Tesla, and only if the batteries are not more than about 75% capable. You won’t get that price from another dealer, or from a private sale. Maybe an insurance write-off.
Used evs are a glut in a closed and reducng market.
Ten years ago… https://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/22/a-new-twist-on-an-old-grade-school-science-project/
The author gives the car too much credit. It hasn’t even been reviewed and yet it is treated as fine other than its unavailable fuel source.
From the above article:
“The range and fill-time of HFCVs is quite competitive with EVs.”
Really? I understand that the range of a HFCV is about the same that of an EV, but the time to fill a HFCV compressed gas tank is more like that to fill an ICE vehicle’s gasoline or diesel tank (i.e., on the order of minutes, not hours).
Assuming, of course, you have remaining range to drive to one of the those (about) 100 hydrogen gas filling stations located in California.
Toyota . . . virtue signaling a market product that has essentially zero infrastructure support. Caveat emptor.
It will take a while to fill. the Hydrogen is also difficult to compress into a tank.
Please define “a while”. Please define “difficult”.
Use a dictionary. The time to fill depends on many factors. Having worked with H² I know compressing takes a lot of effort so unless your filling with liquid H² you will be there a while.
Hopeless.
For your reference (which took all of about 30 seconds to find by Web search) and to supplement your knowledge:
“Fuel cell electric cars typically go 300 miles or more on a full tank of hydrogen, with the ability to refuel in 3 to 5 minutes. Hydrogen fueling is no more complicated or time-consuming than filling a standard car with gas.”
— source: https://driveclean.ca.gov/hydrogen-fueling
ROTFL.
Sorry but I actually know better. Why pray tell would you use the Canadian government drive clean portal to get any “REAL” information?
🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣
As I posted above, hopeless.
The URL that I referenced, https://driveclean.ca.gov/hydrogen-fueling ,
is from the state of California, in the United States, not Canada.
Had you bothered to read—more importantly to understand— this text in the upper left corner of the referenced website, you just might have realized this fact:
“Brought to you by the California Air Resources Board”
Now, you were saying something about “I actually know better” . . .
You think CARB is a better reference? You are getting dumber by the minute. How many years have you worked with H²? I bet none.
I’ve worked with hydrogen enough years to know its chemical symbol is not H².
You?
Again, hopeless . . as in, when you find you are digging yourself deeper and deeper into a hole, the first rule is to stop digging.
Guess you are unacquainted with a diatomic molecule. I use the superscript just because it is faster and I’m lazy.
After hearing all the bad press garnered by EVs, which were overpriced and overrated from the outset, consumers are understandably wary of any new transportation modes with unproven track records. So before manufacturers and governments get too gung-ho about hydrogen fuel-cell types and start providing and expecting excessive incentives for them, they had better make certain they’re competitively priced and mechanically/technically reliable. Otherwise they could wind up being overproduced and unsaleable resulting in big monetary setbacks for the producers.
Calling Governor Newsom….calling Governor Newsom…
Fisker warns it’s running out of cash and may not make it through 2024 (msn.com)
good riddance.