Why California’s climate disclosure law should doom green energy

From CFACT

California prides itself on being a leader with respect to tackling climate change.  This is because they believe, albeit on shaky scientific grounds, that their citizens “already” face devastating consequences inflicted on them by manmade global warming – including wildfires, sea level rise, drought, climate refugees, and other impacts that “threaten their health and safety”.

Thus, to lower their state’s carbon footprint, the legislature recently passed a law requiring all companies doing over $1 billion in business within California to “publicly disclose” (by 2026) all their “direct” greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions stemming from fuel combustion they utilize, as well as all “indirect” GHG emissions derived from the electricity, heating and cooling they consume.

By 2027, they must also disclose “indirect upstream and downstream” GHGs emitted by sources they do not own or directly control but from which they purchase goods and services, including GHG emissions associated with the “processing and use of sold products.”

This certainly appears to cover almost every mega-scale entity doing business in the once-Golden State. And it might help those who fret about climate change sleep better at night. But will it actually lower the planet’s greenhouse gas emissions?

The simple answer is “no”.  Let me explain.

Since only “zero-emission” vehicles can be sold in California by 2035, and the state must have 100% “clean” electricity by 2045, the new disclosure mandates should (at least in theory) cover GHG emissions associated with “upstream” operations required for processing raw materials, manufacturing new energy generation and use technologies, and transporting “clean energy” equipment sold to or used in California.

The new mandates should also cover wind turbines, solar panels, electric vehicle batteries, grid-scale backup batteries, transformers, expanded and enhanced transmission lines, and other equipment associated with California’s emerging “clean, green, renewable, sustainable” economy.

And they absolutely should also cover the extraction, processing, refining, and other activities required to obtain the nonrenewable metals, minerals, concrete, plastics, paints, other materials – and fuels – needed to manufacture and install those technologies.

The billion-dollar utility companies that buy and use all this equipment should absolutely be required to catalog and publicly disclose all emissions associated with these “clean” technologies.

If such an inventory is accurately taken, which is admittedly a bit “if”, it won’t paint a pretty picture for those touting renewables, Green building construction, and EV transportation “fixes”.

The International Energy Agency and other experts report that electric vehicles have six times more metals by weight than their internal combustion counterparts. Photovoltaic solar panels require six times more metals and minerals (other than steel and aluminum) per megawatt than a combined-cycle gas turbine that generates electricity pretty much 24/7/365; they also require at least 100 times more land area.

Weather-dependent, intermittent onshore wind turbines need 9-10 times more than a CCGT, and offshore wind turbines require fourteen times more raw materials. Putting 850-foot-tall wind turbines in California’s deep ocean waters would require mounting them on floating platforms big enough to prevent them from capsizing in storms; that would likely mean 40 times more materials.

For every 100,000 tons of copper (enough for 2,275 gigantic 12-MW offshore wind turbines), companies would have to blast and extract nearly 60,000,000 tons of ore and overlying rock and then use heat and chemicals to process almost 23,000,000 tons of ore. Every step involves fossil fuels.

Nickel for powerful nickel-cobalt-aluminum and nickel-manganese-cobalt EV batteries is found mainly in Indonesia, where companies mine the ore using diesel-powered equipment and send it to smelters fueled by coal. Once fully operational, a single nickel-processing industrial park in eastern Indonesia will burn more coal per year than Brazil.

Cobalt for cobalt-lithium batteries comes mostly from the Democratic Republic of Congo, involves extensive child and near-slave labor, and, like most other metals and minerals for “renewable” technologies, requires fossil fuels and toxic chemicals and is controlled by Communist China.

Manufacturing wind turbines, solar panels, and batteries is also heavily concentrated in China, whose coal-based power and resultant GHG emissions now exceed those of the rest of the world combined. In fact, China put 38.4 gigawatts (38,400 MW) of new coal-fired power capacity into operation in 2020 alone – more than three times the amount built everywhere else around the world.

In short, California’s Green transition is likely to be an ugly one for those actually intent on trying to lower greenhouse gas emissions. One can’t help but wonder what happens when Californian politicians realize their grand scheme to save Planet Earth from a manmade climate crisis actually results in possibly spewing out more greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere.

My guess is nothing at all – except, of course, to make sure such a valid inventory isn’t conducted in the first place.

This article originally appeared in The Orange County Register

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Tom Halla
February 25, 2024 2:10 pm

Gaslighting is the only energy use Greens approve of.

Bryan A
Reply to  Tom Halla
February 25, 2024 10:17 pm

Except that “Gas” will be forbidden so they’ll need to rename it

Dimlighting?
Greenlighting?
Lackoflighting?
Parttimelighting?
fuggetaboutlighting?

bobpjones
Reply to  Bryan A
February 26, 2024 3:55 am

You forgot, moonlighting.

Bryan A
Reply to  bobpjones
February 26, 2024 5:49 pm

I thought that moonlight required diesel generators to make solar panels work at night

Bob
February 25, 2024 2:18 pm

This is why we have to concentrate most of our efforts on the common guy. The majority of skeptics have believed that if we only proved scientifically that the CAGW premise was wrong our political leaders, academics, NGOs, environmentalists and others would see they were wrong and change their ways. That ain’t happening. Educate the common man, he will only stand taking the shaft for so long and then there will be hell to pay. Let’s educate him sooner so there is less hell to pay.

Reply to  Bob
February 26, 2024 12:01 am

Ordinary people are far more astute than CAGW Alarmists think, and know when they are being shafted.

toddzrx
Reply to  Bob
February 27, 2024 12:28 pm

To a degree this is happening organically. Just look at the EV market.

Rud Istvan
February 25, 2024 2:19 pm

This new law will guarantee that there NO >$1 billion companies left in CA soon. They don’t get “Vote with your feet.”

Lee Riffee
Reply to  Rud Istvan
February 25, 2024 4:17 pm

People and businesses are leaving CA in droves, no reason to think this won’t accelerate.

MarkW
Reply to  Rud Istvan
February 25, 2024 5:45 pm

Thanks to its highly progressive income taxes (personal and business), CA is very dependent on the wealthy to pay its bills.

The wealthy are the most able to leave, they have the most incentive to leave and leave is what they have been doing.

Reply to  Rud Istvan
February 26, 2024 11:25 am

I foresee a huge number of subsidiary companies created for business solely in California by >$1 billion companies newly doing business only outside the state.

Admin
February 25, 2024 2:24 pm

Hilarious – “concerned” citizens suing green energy companies for making insufficient effort to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.

Nick Stokes
February 25, 2024 2:37 pm

“My guess is nothing at all “

Yes, all guess work here, and arm waving. Nothing quantitative on emissions. Just Ooh, look at this. And the this is exaggerated, as you’d expect in a CFACT rant.

“The International Energy Agency and other experts report that electric vehicles have six times more metals by weight “
No, they don’t. The link is to a graph of critical materials – ie, pretty much what EVs use and ICE don.t. It does not include Fe or Al, which make up by far the greatest part of energy consumtion to extract.

“Weather-dependent, intermittent onshore wind turbines need 9-10 times more than a CCGT, and offshore wind turbines require fourteen times more raw materials.”
Again, no, they didn’t say that. The linked graph excludes the materials that CCGT most uses, Fe and Al.

Reply to  Nick Stokes
February 25, 2024 3:36 pm

There is a reason EV’s weigh more than ICEV’s. The last time I studied chemistry, nickel is a metal, cobalt is a metal, copper is a metal, lithium is a metal, neodymium is a metal, drive motor housings are metal.

Maybe you should explain why you think heavier vehicles have less metal by weight.

You might want to explain what older cast iron 5.5 liter engine weighs as compared to aluminum blocked 1.8 liter turbo engines weigh.

I’ve worked on both. I can tell you how car companies have achieved the gas economies levels they have, weight reduction.

Look up the weight of a 2MW Wind turbine vs a 2 MW Diesel generator. Tell us which weighs more.

Nick Stokes
Reply to  Jim Gorman
February 25, 2024 4:36 pm

EVs don’t weigh six times as much – tht’s what is claimed.

Shytot
Reply to  Nick Stokes
February 25, 2024 5:04 pm

The words used are “.. electric vehicles have six times more metals by weight…”
If you’re going to go off on another whinge fest at least get the details right.

Rud Istvan
Reply to  Nick Stokes
February 25, 2024 5:31 pm

NS, you have a growing credibility problem here. I just checked all upthread. The only persons claiming EV weighed 6x ICE was you. CFACT post said ‘metals by weight—excluding steel and aluminum. You could have but did not provide an alternative reference for such an obviously distorted claim. I value references and real data.

The real ICE/ EV weight comparison number is less than 1.5x depending on model comparison and EV version. You could have done that lookup, but did not.

To be very specific, my 2007MY FORD hybrid Escape SUV with AWD and a class 1 tow hitch weighs less than 400# more than the equivalent conventional HP 2007 Escape V6. Reason is simple. The small hybrid I4 engine block versus the big V6 engine block (plus steel crank shafts and con rods). Even if most of both are aluminum with only iron cylinder inserts and steel cranks/con rods, the extra V6 weight adds up.

Oh, and the small additional extra hybrid traction battery weight over the rear wheels adds towing stability to the hybrid version.
We used to pull a two horse trailer, a 16’ loaded fishing boat trailer, a 2 snowmobile trailer, and a 2 motorcycle trailer. No problems with the hybrid.

Nick Stokes
Reply to  Rud Istvan
February 25, 2024 5:39 pm

NS, you have a growing credibility problem here”
Really? The CFACT claim was
“The International Energy Agency and other experts report that electric vehicles have six times more metals by weight “
You don’t seem to have any interest in the credibility of that. Jim then said
“Maybe you should explain why you think heavier vehicles have less metal by weight.”
Well I didn’t say they had less metal. I said they didn’t have six times as much metal.

Reply to  Nick Stokes
February 25, 2024 5:56 pm

If you bothered to actually look at it, they are talking about “critical” minerals.

The actual data supports the claim..

Your whinging, does not support your claim.

Reply to  bnice2000
February 25, 2024 5:59 pm

Chart…

minerals-used-in-electric-cars-compared-to-conventional-cars
Nick Stokes
Reply to  bnice2000
February 25, 2024 8:34 pm

You left off the key, and the relevant note (underlined red (by me)):

comment image

Reply to  Nick Stokes
February 25, 2024 9:51 pm

You misunderstand intentionally…. Not the main structural materials..

They are talking about “critical minerals”

Sorry if your comprehension doesn’t reach that far.

You tried obfuscation and misdirection.

And FAILED AGAIN.

Nick Stokes
Reply to  bnice2000
February 25, 2024 9:54 pm

The IEA are talking about critical minerals. But in the CFACT rant, this became, as I quoted:
“The International Energy Agency and other experts report that electric vehicles have six times more metals by weight “

Reply to  Nick Stokes
February 25, 2024 11:24 pm

Critical materials.

Always read where the data comes from… and stop being a clueless idiot . !

You just FAILED AGAIN.

Bryan A
Reply to  Nick Stokes
February 26, 2024 6:02 pm

Looks like 6 times to me
ICE has…
Steel
Aluminum
Copper
Manganese

EV has…
Aluminum
Steel
Copper
Manganese
PLUS
Nickel
Graphite
Cobalt
Lithium
Zinc
Gold
Silver
Titanium
Neodymium
Rare Earth Metals

At least nearly 4 times the metals if not six times goes into EVs that don’t go into ICE

EVs also have lots of weight reducing plastic components that require Oil and Gas exploration and refinement for petrochemical stocks needed for their manufacture

MarkW
Reply to  bnice2000
February 25, 2024 9:24 pm

Your whinging, does not support your claim.

Has it ever?

MarkW
Reply to  Nick Stokes
February 25, 2024 9:23 pm

This is basic English here. The statement you quote doesn’t mean what you say it means. Even when corrected, you once again insist on sticking with your error one can only conclude that either you aren’t as smart as you believe yourself to be, or your only goal is to gaslight this site.

MarkW
Reply to  Nick Stokes
February 25, 2024 5:56 pm

You quoted the section, but then either don’t understand what the quote says, or you are lying again.

“The International Energy Agency and other experts report that electric vehicles have six times more metals by weight “

This quotes says that if pound for pound EVs have 6 times as much metal.
In other words, if EVs and IC vehicles weighed the same amount, The EV would have 6 times as much metal, by weight as does the ICV.

Nick Stokes
Reply to  MarkW
February 25, 2024 6:50 pm

The linked graph gives no support to that strained interpretation. It gives ICE 35 kg/vehicle (their units), EV 210 kg/vehicle. But the metals are a particulas subset deemed critical for EV. In fact the main one, graphite, is not even a metal. Their graph was of critical minerals. It did not include the main Ice metals, iron and Al.

Reply to  Nick Stokes
February 25, 2024 9:53 pm

Nick has got to the demented stage where he can’t even comprehend a simple graph.

Time to stop digging in your self-imposed quicksand, Nick.. !!

Reply to  bnice2000
February 26, 2024 8:24 am

If you remember Nick does grasp the difference between a solid (carbon) and a gas (CO2).

Reply to  mkelly
February 26, 2024 8:25 am

Should say doesn’t.

Reply to  Nick Stokes
February 26, 2024 1:35 am

 It gives ICE 35 kg/vehicle (their units), EV 210 kg/vehicle”

So now you ADMIT that EV’s use exactly SIX TIMES the amount of the critical materials.

You can’t even LIE straight on a plank !!

Reply to  Nick Stokes
February 26, 2024 4:17 am

nick, there is one advantage to ev being heaver than ice cars, that is that you should get better traction in the snow just before the battery goes dead 100 miles from the next charging station.

Bryan A
Reply to  Nick Stokes
February 26, 2024 10:34 pm

Iron and Aluminum are common to both ICE and EV with ICE Iron Heavy and EV Aluminum heavy. Titanium is used in the EV undercarriage to protect the battery and is nearly exclusive to EVs but for trim work in top end ICE applications

Nick Stokes
Reply to  MarkW
February 26, 2024 12:56 pm

The EV would have 6 times as much metal, by weight as does the ICV.”

Apart from not corresponding to the clear misrepresentation of the IEA gifures linked, that version makes absolutely no sense. Metals constitute almost the entire weight of an ICV. How could an EV beat that by a factor of 6? As I said above, it isn’t six times as heavy.

Bryan A
Reply to  Nick Stokes
February 27, 2024 7:12 am

One part of the EV is far more than 6 times heavier compared to ICE.
The fuel tank
ICE fuel tank weighs about 20-30 lbs depending on capacity (+6 lbs per gal 10gal 60# – 20gal 120#)
EV fuel tank weighs 1000 – 1100 lbs empty or full
That’s 10 times the weight for a full 15 gal tank and nearly 50 times the weight of an empty 15 gal tank

Bryan A
Reply to  Nick Stokes
February 25, 2024 6:32 pm

That’s your interpretation of what was stated and I agree with you…it is a misstatement

The International Energy Agency and other experts report that electric vehicles have six times more metals by weight than their internal combustion counterpart

The link does go on to explain that its only certain metals like

  • Copper
  • Lithium
  • Nickel
  • Manganese
  • Cobalt
  • Graphite
  • Zinc

With ICE having Copper and Manganese in significantly lower quantities
Steel and Aluminum aren’t mentioned because both cars have Similar quantities.
For example…
2024 Tesla Model 3 Curb weight 3,862 to 4,034 lbs
2024 Toyota Corolla Curb weight 2,955 to 3,150 lbs

2024 Tesla Model S Curb weight 4,561 to 4,766 lbs
2023 Nissan Maxima Curb weight 3,609 to 3,730 lbs

2024 Tesla Model Y Curb weight 4,154 to 4,398 lbs
2024 Nissan Rogue Curb weight 3,457 to 3,713 lbs

Difference being the fuel tanks

Dave Andrews
Reply to  Nick Stokes
February 26, 2024 6:58 am

The IEA published ‘The Role of Critical Minerals in the Clean Energy Transition’ in May 2021

“A typical electric car requires six times the mineral inputs of a conventional car and an onshore wind plant requires nine times more mineral resources than a gas fired plant. Since 2010 the average amount of minerals needed for a new unit of power generation capacity has increased by 50% as the share of renewables has risen.”

“a concerted effort to reach the goals of the Paris Agreement…..would mean a quadrupling of mineral requirements for clean energy technology by 2040. An even faster transition to hit net zero by 2050 would require six times more mineral inputs in 2040 than today.”

Nick Stokes
Reply to  Dave Andrews
February 26, 2024 1:26 pm

Here is the full context of that quote:
“An energy system powered by clean energy technologies differs profoundly from one fuelled by traditional hydrocarbon resources. Critical minerals such as copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt and rare earth elements are essential components in many of today’s rapidly growing clean energy technologies – from wind turbines and electricity networks to electric vehicles. Demand for these minerals is growing quickly as clean energy transitions gather pace.

Solar PV plants, wind farms and electric vehicles generally require more critical minerals to build than their fossil fuel-based counterparts. A typical electric car requires six times the mineral inputs of a conventional car and an offshore wind plant requires 13 times more mineral resources than a similarly sized gas-fired plant. “

They are obviously referring to their named critical minerals, as derived from the IEA graph posted above. The main component by weight of both EVs and ICVs is iron, and there is no way an EV requires six times as much iron.

Dave Andrews
Reply to  Nick Stokes
February 28, 2024 1:28 am

Nick you’re obfuscating again. You’ve taken a perhaps poorly worded sentence and are trying to use that to discredit the whole article.

The IEA put figures on the number of new lithium, cobalt and nickel mines that will be needed by 2030 to meet the Stated Policies and Announced Pledges scenarios They say demand for EV batteries is currently almost 50% of world supply and this will grow to 70% in the Stated Policies Scenario and 80% in the Announced Pledges Scenario by 2030

This will require 30 – 50 new lithium mines

For nickel and cobalt the Stated Policies Scenario will need 41 new nickel mines and 11 new cobalt mines. The Announced Pledges Scenario will require 60 nickel mines and 17 cobalt mines.

In total the number of new mines needed are:-

82 in the Stated Policies Scenario and 127 in the Announced Policies Scenario.

That is a massive increase in mining.

Reply to  Nick Stokes
February 25, 2024 5:15 pm

cobalt for the batteries doesn’t take much energy to extract… just young children.

Nick Stokes
Reply to  bnice2000
February 25, 2024 5:49 pm

The coming battery type is lithium iron phosphate (LFP). It already has 31% of the market, and it uses no cobalt at all. And its price is just about to halve, to US$3,388.00 for a 60 kWh pack.

Mr.
Reply to  Nick Stokes
February 25, 2024 9:20 pm

Renew Economy?

They’ve had Oz coal fueled electricity being totally replaced by wind, solar & batteries since about 2012 if I remember correctly when I first heard of them.

Hope springs eternal though, hey Nick?

I sincerely hope you haven’t been paying a subscription to them for these past 12 years or so.

Did they offer a money back guarantee to subscribers if they had nothing concrete to report after 10 years?

Nick Stokes
Reply to  Mr.
February 25, 2024 9:40 pm

No, it is thedriven.io. But their source is the chinese site
https://cnevpost.com/2024/01/17/battery-price-war-catl-byd-costs-down/
which seems to be close to the manufacturers.

Reply to  Nick Stokes
February 25, 2024 9:56 pm

Have fun with your bank account when you try to replace the battery in the EV.. .. you know.. the one that you don’t own.

I’m sure your petrol or diesel 4WD SUV/Ute is just the hypocrisy you aim for.

Reply to  Nick Stokes
February 25, 2024 10:01 pm

Yep, the way western societies are destroying themselves with “Net-Zero” idiocies..

… Everything will come from COAL FIRED China.

Reply to  Nick Stokes
February 25, 2024 10:17 pm

Why have you never answered the questions?

Which EV do you drive?

Is it your only car ?

Or if you want to go anywhere do you rely on a fossil fuel powered car?

Reply to  bnice2000
February 25, 2024 11:27 pm

Nick FAILS AGAIN.

Ranting over minor issues because he doesn’t bother looking at the data and where it comes from.

Then RUNNING AWAY from answering simple questions which would undoubtedly shows what a slimy little hypocrite he really is.

Reply to  bnice2000
February 26, 2024 5:58 am

“Brave, brave Sir Robin, Sir Robin ran away!”

Mr.
Reply to  Nick Stokes
February 25, 2024 10:59 pm

thedriven.io says it is owned by Renew Economy.

Reply to  Mr.
February 25, 2024 11:34 pm

Nick shoots himself in the foot… YET AGAIN. !!

Wonder he has any brains left at all… actually… no evidence he does.

Reply to  bnice2000
February 26, 2024 12:05 am

Stokes has more brains in his foot than he has in the rest of his body.

0perator
Reply to  Nick Stokes
February 26, 2024 7:09 am

Good grief man. You’re incomprehensively idiotic.

Nick Stokes
Reply to  0perator
February 26, 2024 1:23 pm

incomprehensively?

Reply to  Nick Stokes
February 25, 2024 9:59 pm

“The coming battery type”

They will be lucky to sell many.. the EV market is dying a natural death.

For the same reason everywhere.

Lithium, of course is such clean stuff to mine. (Nick doesn’t care about the environment)

E-Car Sales Stall In Germany…Trend Shows Country Will Fall Far Short Of 2030 Target (notrickszone.com)

Reply to  bnice2000
February 26, 2024 12:08 am

EV’s are failing today for exactly the same reason they failed over a century ago – poor range, expensive batteries, poor performance in cold weather, excessive weight.

Reply to  bnice2000
February 26, 2024 8:49 am

“The coming battery type”

Why is that the “answer” to the Green energy problems is always “coming to an outlet near you”?

old cocky
Reply to  bnice2000
February 26, 2024 12:22 pm

They are widely used in caravans and off-grid applications, partly because they are cheaper, and partly because they don’t have a tendency to emulate aluminium-rust reactions.
The power density is about half that of other Li battery chemistries.
That isn’t a problem for stationary applications or smaller scale mobile use (typically 1 – 5 kWh)

Reply to  Nick Stokes
February 26, 2024 1:51 am

Won’t make a lot of difference. It will lower the price disparity between EV and ICE. But it will not change the use disparity. The two key things here are range and speed of refuel, and they are related. It still will take you 5 times as long (or more) to refuel even using fast charging. And you’ll still end up doing it more often because of limited range. Range will still fall in cold weather – or in hot, if you use AC.

Governments can force everyone to use EVs. They can, as the UK is proposing, ban ICE car sales, or tax their use out of existence. What they cannot do is make EVs the use equivalent of ICE. They therefore cannot eliminate the collateral consequences of moving everyone to EVs.

They will also cost more to fuel from public charging points, and for large scale penetration people are going to be dependent on these – the very large portion of the population that doesn’t have off-street parking in a driveway.

It is not going to be just change the means of propulsion and carry on as now. Its going to mean, at least, a strong fall in car ownership, as there is no longer the same cost-benefit balance, and a lot less mobility. And that is going to work through the economy in very significant ways.

It is also most unlikely that the move will produce any significant reduction in CO2 emissions. The power to fuel the EVs is going to be generated substantially by gas, burned in power stations at 60% efficiency. There are then losses on the way to the use of the generated power to drive the cars, first in transmission, then in charging the batteries, then in using the power to drive the car itself.

The really striking thing about discussions of this subject is that there is no logical connection between the belief that there is a climate crisis and the idea that a move to EVs is both possible and desirable and will lower CO2 emissions. Whether or not there is a crisis, EVs are not going to replace ICEs on a like for like basis and will not significantly lower emissions.

Yet a belief in the virtues of the move to EVs, and its efficacy as a means of addressing the supposed crisis, is invariably found among climate alarmists, and what you get are lots of extreme intellectual contortions to try to justify it. In this its similar to the wind/solar obsession.

The climate movement is full of wishful thinking, and its doing its best to drive the rest of us into the ground based on it.

Mr.
Reply to  michel
February 26, 2024 7:30 am

Climatitis carries with it a raft of induced ailments which principally exhibit strong symptoms of advanced irrationality.

Reply to  Nick Stokes
February 26, 2024 5:59 am

Yay!

The Magic Battery has arrived!

Success. Not.

Bryan A
Reply to  karlomonte
February 26, 2024 6:24 pm

That magic battery is on the Curiosity Rover on Mars MM-RTG
That battery has been in continuous operation for the last 12 years without a recharge.

Dave Andrews
Reply to  Nick Stokes
February 26, 2024 7:19 am

IEA ‘Global EV Outlook 2022’

“Lithium iron phosphate does not need nickel or cobalt but comes with lower energy density and is therefore better suited to shorter range vehicles… SUVs comprise half of all EV models available globally and require larger batteries to travel the same distance”

Dave Andrews
Reply to  Dave Andrews
February 26, 2024 7:42 am

IEA ‘Global EV outlook 2023’,

“In France, Germany and the UK in 2022 the….average weight of a BEV SUV was 1.5 times higher than the average small BEV, requiring greater amounts of steel, aluminium and plastic… the battery in an SUV is twice as large requiring about 75% more critical minerals.”

old cocky
Reply to  Nick Stokes
February 26, 2024 12:16 pm

LiFePO4 batteries are used widely in caravans.

Current retail price for a 100Ah (approximately 1.2kWh) battery is about $A1,000.
There are lots of grey nomads who would welcome the order of magnitude price reduction.

Nick Stokes
Reply to  old cocky
February 26, 2024 1:22 pm
old cocky
Reply to  Nick Stokes
February 26, 2024 2:10 pm

Grey nomads get ripped off

No doubt, Nick, no doubt.

Per the article, that $US100 was a forecast for 2025, it’s currently $125 in China and $140-150 in the US and Europe.
It wasn’t clear if hat was ex-factory or wholesale bulk price.

By the time shipping is taken into account, plus a couple of levels of importer, wholesaler and retailer, it all adds up.

There are generic LiFePO4 batteries available at around $400/kWh, but there are is a difference between cheap and inexpensive.

Nick Stokes
Reply to  old cocky
February 26, 2024 2:29 pm

Per the article, that $US100 was a forecast for 2025″
A forecast made back in May. But
With both the EV industry and stationary storage sectors increasingly adopting batteries with LFP cathode chemistry, LFP pack average prices were found to be US$130/kWh and LFP cells at US$95/kWh. LFP is now just less than 1/3 (32%) cheaper than NMC.”

old cocky
Reply to  Nick Stokes
February 26, 2024 3:05 pm

Based on the figures in the article, those average prices are massively dominated by China. (China packs $126/kWh, US 11% higher, EU 26% higher)

Fair enough, they did say that cell prices were below $US100/kWh, but cells are only useful for manufacturing packs.
The packaging and control circuitry seems to comprise around 30% of the cost, so may be a limiting factor.

In any case, a retail price reduction would make grey nomads, cockies and hippies happier.

Reply to  Nick Stokes
February 26, 2024 5:56 am

Hey Stokes, tell us again how the world’s entire steel production can be shifted to “green hydrogen” steel — the last time you tried to run this yarn up the mast was hilarious.

Dave Andrews
Reply to  karlomonte
February 26, 2024 8:49 am

According to the World Steel Organisation total world crude steel production in 2023 was 1,882 Mt similar to 2022.

Hybrit in Sweden is the most advanced manufacturer using hydrogen to make steel and has produced 100 tonnes and is in the process of scaling up to 1Mt . It has succesfully built a sealed hydrogen storage cavern recently.

Long way to go to reach 1.8bn tonnes!

Reply to  Dave Andrews
February 26, 2024 11:38 am

A ratio of 0.00053, almost there!

Reply to  Nick Stokes
February 27, 2024 6:49 am

Tesla Cybertruck:

A document from NHTSA has revealed a few details regarding the 2024 Tesla Cybertruck ahead of the start of deliveries in November.

The document shows that the Cybertruck will come with dual-motor and tri-motor setups, with the single-motor version that was supposed to cost under $40K notably absent.

The document also revealed the Cybertruck will have a gross vehicle weight rating between 8001 and 10,000 pounds, depending on the specification.”

Ford F150EV:
“Dimensions
Length 232.7 in.
Overall width with mirrors 96.0 in.
Overall width without mirrors 80.0 in.
Height 78.3 in.
Wheelbase 145.5 in.
Bed length 67.1 in.
Cargo capacity, all seats in place 14.1 cu.ft.
Ground clearance 8.4 in.
Angle of approach 24.4 degrees
Angle of departure 23.6 degrees
Maximum towing capacity 7,700 lbs.
Maximum payload 2,235 lbs.
Gross weight 8,250 lbs.”

GM Hummer EV:
2024 GMC HUMMER EV ReviewPros

  • Moves incredibly quickly for something so big
  • Real off-road chops and capability
  • Lots of available tech and in-car driver aids
  • Nearly 400 miles of range in Edmunds’ real-world testing

Cons

  • Expensive price tag
  • Small cargo bed limits utility
  • Really heavy, which limits efficiency
  • Massive size makes city driving and parking lots stressful

What’s new

  • New, smaller 20-module battery pack becomes standard
  • Former, higher-capacity 24-module battery pack is now optional”

OverviewWhen engineers are turned loose to reimagine the old gas-guzzling Hummer H2 as a futuristic electric truck, you get the 2024 GMC Hummer EV. The results aren’t especially environmentally conscious — the 9,000-pound Hummer thirsts for electricity and its battery is twice the size of most EV batteries”

Phil R
February 25, 2024 2:42 pm

I’m not a businessman, much less a billion-dollar businessman, but wouldn’t businesses large enough to be subject to the law just create offshoots or subsidiaries or whatever to keep themselves under the bilion dollar limit?

Lee Riffee
Reply to  Phil R
February 25, 2024 4:37 pm

Rather than doing that, they might just simply move out of CA, or at least move their headquarters out and leave just a subsidiary in state.

MarkW
Reply to  Lee Riffee
February 25, 2024 6:02 pm

Was it this law, or a similar one that required the companies to calculate their world wide emissions?

Bryan A
February 25, 2024 2:48 pm

Pointing out Big Green Hypocrisy is verboten and buys you a first class ticket to the Climate Gulag/reeducation camp farthest from your familial support system

Ronald Stein
February 25, 2024 3:00 pm

California remains oblivious to the reality that ALL electricity came AFTER the discovery of oil, starting with the light bulb made from oil. All electrical generation from hydro, coal, natural gas, nuclear, wind, and solar are ALL based on the products, components, and equipment that are made with PRODUCTS made from the oil derivatives manufactured from crude oil.

 

California avoids energy literacy conversations about the “Elephant in the Room”, as the end of crude oil that is manufactured into all the products and transportation fuels that built the world to eight billion people, would be the end of civilization as “unreliable electricity” from breezes and sunshine cannot manufacture anything.

 

Rid the world of crude oil and we’re back to the pre-1800’s with no merchant ships, planes, trains, hospitals, airports, shipping terminals, communications, electronics, etc!!!!

AWG
Reply to  Ronald Stein
February 25, 2024 6:08 pm

akshully… California wants to end all use of hydrocarbons for Western Civilization, I don’t know of any Greens, especially Greta Thunberg and John Kerry who have wandered over to Arab nations, Russia, China or India and hectored what constitutes half the world’s population on their growing dependency on coal and petrol.

This has absolutely nothing to do with “a sustainable planet” a cluster of words that are floating abstractions – having no real meaning. It has everything to do with destroying forever more Western Civilization and all of the human flourishing that followed.

It is, to say the least, demonic, not science.

Reply to  AWG
February 25, 2024 7:37 pm

There are trillions to be made off of the estimated $US200 trillion it will cost. The rich own the media.

Reply to  AWG
February 25, 2024 10:35 pm

Product of a misanthropic suicide cult.

Rud Istvan
February 25, 2024 3:32 pm

A musing. Why is California so crazy? This new law driving companies out of state is but one of several recent examples. Others include:

  1. Mandating all new class 8 container haulers from its ports be BEV. Since those don’t exist, its ports will simply be increasingly bypassed by container shipping.
  2. Banning the sale of gas powered lawncare equipment. Those will just be imported from neighboring states (since the interstate commerce clause does NOT allow CA to regulate interstate commerce), and the CA lawn equipment business will rapidly disappear.
  3. Building the high speed rail to nowhere. It was fun while federal funds were involved, now not so much.
  4. CPUC mandated grid storage in MW rather than MWh. That one was easy to explain. The CA VCs were then funding (since failed) ‘grid battery’ startups that could deliver MW but not MWh. CPUC bought and paid for. Covered in essay California Dreaming in ebook Blowing Smoke.

So, the speculative musing. CA is so used to (rare) increasing rather than decreasing returns to scale tech successes (Apple’s walled garden, Google quasi ad search monopoly, Facebook social media capture) that it simply doesn’t anymore realize that is not how the rest of the world typically works. The norm is decreasing returns to scale.
Example. SYP plywood mills are never larger than about 180 mf^2/yr. The reason is simple. The declining costs of being a bigger mill are more than offset by the increasing transportation costs to supply such a mill from a necessarily enlarging woodshed.

A good very recent example. Google Gemini AI was intentionally programmed to ‘illustrate’ diversity in its AI images, so was so ridiculous concerning historical figures (black George Washington, female Pope) that imaging has been fully disabled until fixed. Google diversity zeal ignored the historical real world.

The rest of California should be similarly disabled until fixed.
A good start would be removing the state’s tailpipe emissions exception, which allows CA to force its nutty standards on the car companies nationally. Since designing and building 2 types of everything is cost prohibitive.

You want to be crazy, keep it inside your place not ours.

Curious George
Reply to  Rud Istvan
February 25, 2024 3:54 pm

Owing to a California blackout-prone electric supply, I want to buy a Honda 3.3kW generator. They are banned in California beginning in 2024, but they disappeared in 2022. I am told I can’t buy them even in Nevada if I don’t have a Nevada drivers license.

Randle Dewees
Reply to  Curious George
February 25, 2024 4:21 pm

Last year I purchased two Champion dual fuel generators, one 2500 Watt, one 4500 Watt. I also got several propane tanks for them. I just looked on Amz and I can still have a gen set sent to me here in Kali. Don’t know when the ban happens but you might want to get something Now.

BTW, I have used gov Honda generators extensively for field tests, worked fine. I have not run my Champs hard yet, but I did break them in about 10 hours, both work fine.

Reply to  Curious George
February 25, 2024 10:27 pm

https://www.google.ca/search?q=Honda+3.3kW+generator&sca_esv=41d00d5a24387526&tbm=shop&sxsrf=ACQVn0-wkmIQK9379uFU2GPnigOfMhLYGg:1708928469920&source=lnms

You’ll have to switch the location, sorry my default is for Canada and of course Google knows where I live – but it’ll get you pointed in the right direction.

Reply to  Curious George
February 26, 2024 11:43 am

There is always Wyoming.

Reply to  Rud Istvan
February 25, 2024 8:13 pm

Quite a few products are banned from being imported into California. For instance, If you live in (almost?) any other state, you can buy these things from Amazon and other on-line companies but they are not allowed to ship them to California. One can buy ammunition in Nevada without any hassle but bringing it home to California carries serious criminal charges. This seems to me to be regulating interstate commerce to some significant extent. What do you call it?

Drake
Reply to  Rud Istvan
February 25, 2024 8:26 pm

All 1 billion corporations MUST charge ALL costs associated to this new regulation to Cali customers.

Raise the prices of all products and services sold or provided in California ONLY.

BTW, almost every law created in the US congress claims the Interstate Commerce Clause of the US constitution for justification. THIS type of crap, and NY denying oil and gas pipelines, and Washington state not allowing the export of coal from their ports, etc. is what that clause was meant for IMO.

Reply to  Rud Istvan
February 26, 2024 11:42 am

There is a reason the bulk of the land mass of California is seriously trying to secede from L.A. and the Bay Area.

mleskovarsocalrrcom
February 25, 2024 3:43 pm

Just another virtue signal that will be ignored when the time comes.

February 25, 2024 4:38 pm

I have a fantasy in which I am permitted to just stop arguing with green energy zealots followed by my hand delivering hard slap to their face. Then in a stern voice I implore: “come on man snap out of it !” Like a scene from one of those old movies.

Reply to  John Oliver
February 26, 2024 8:56 am

Or a Brandon press conference.

0perator
February 25, 2024 5:05 pm

Just wait till they find out what is going on at The Geysers and the hills outside Bakersfield.

MarkW
February 25, 2024 5:32 pm

Weather-dependent, intermittent onshore wind turbines need 9-10 times more than a CCGT, and offshore wind turbines require fourteen times more raw materials. Putting 850-foot-tall wind turbines in California’s deep ocean waters would require mounting them on floating platforms big enough to prevent them from capsizing in storms; that would likely mean 40 times more materials.

You didn’t cover the fact that weather wind turbines last only half as long as the CCGT plant does. This would double the amount of materials needed to build the turbines.
Beyond that, turbines lose efficiency as they age, so the total number of turbines needed to replace the CCGT plant goes up over time.

MarkW
Reply to  MarkW
February 25, 2024 9:30 pm

That first paragraph was supposed to have been quoted.

Reply to  MarkW
February 25, 2024 10:44 pm

Make sure you qualify “raw materials” and be more precise, or another boring, infantile comment flame warm will erupt with Stokes, the King of Nit Pick – he must have a secretary to type in his comments that he expects everyone else to develop carpal tunnel and have their thumbs fall off typing legal-level precise comments.

dk_
February 25, 2024 5:47 pm

Isn’t there an exception for PG&E and other government operated monopolies?

honestyrus
February 25, 2024 6:27 pm

This is a nice idea. But most of the raw material related emissions (mining and refining) associated with solar panels, wind turbines and EV battery manufacture take place overseas in jurisdictions not exactly known for accurate and accurate and honest reporting of such matters. You can pretty much guarantee the environmental damage caused by those activities will be greatly understated.

February 25, 2024 7:11 pm

When human emissions of CO2 were cut by 25% during the start of the COVID pandemic CO2 levels kept going up at what looks like exactly the same pace.

‘Temporary reduction in daily global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement’
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0797-x
‘Charts for Mauna Loa CO2’
https://www.co2.earth/monthly-co2

Nick Stokes
Reply to  scvblwxq
February 25, 2024 7:48 pm

Your article did not say emissions were cut by 25%. It said they were down 17±8% at the beginning of April. Writing in May 2025, they estimated a 4-7% drop in whole year. They probably overestimated.

Reply to  Nick Stokes
February 25, 2024 10:46 pm

They are time travelers??? “May 2025?”

Nick Stokes
Reply to  PCman999
February 26, 2024 12:37 am

May 2020

Reply to  Nick Stokes
February 25, 2024 11:28 pm

” It said they were down 17±8% “

So could be 25%.. in fact….

“At their peak, emissions in individual countries decreased by –26% on average.”

Nick FAILS AGAIN !!

He’ll now start whinging that ‘scv’ should have typed “human emissions of CO2 were cut by 26%” not 25%

MarkW
Reply to  scvblwxq
February 25, 2024 9:37 pm

Even if your claim that the emissions dropped by 25% was accurate, you have to remember that CO2 concentrations have been increasing by an average of around 2ppm per year. Some years more, some years less.

A 25% drop would result in an increase for that year of 1.5ppm for that year. Given how noisy the data is, that small a decrease is not easily discernible.

Beyond that, that decrease was not for the whole year, it was for the few months of maximum shutdown.

John Hultquist
February 25, 2024 7:40 pm

I’ll guess – companies can take the forms for the first year, fill in a few big numbers and in subsequent years reduce those by 3%. After the lights go out in CA the companies will have moved and no one will pay any attention to the old numbers.

John Hultquist
February 25, 2024 8:49 pm

 TIP TIP

I haven’t seen much about this project:  Brightline West High-Speed  

Electric train from Rancho Cucamonga to Las Vegas scheduled to be completed before the 2028 Olympics got a $3-billion federal grant in December, got another boost Tuesday (Jan 23rd) when the Biden administration approved $2.5 billion in tax-exempt bonds for the $12-billion project.

 https://www.brightlinewest.com/overview/project

Reply to  John Hultquist
February 26, 2024 5:23 am

Are they allowing the high-speed railroad to use steel wheels rolling on steel track?

Hypocrites.

MyUsername
Reply to  John Hultquist
February 26, 2024 5:49 am

Modern public transport in the US? Hard to believe. Welcome to the 21st century 😀

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  MyUsername
February 27, 2024 3:36 am

It was the government that pushed American transport to highways and aviation, lest you forget. Too late to change the model now.

Drake
Reply to  AGW is Not Science
February 27, 2024 8:32 am

MUn is from a tiny European country and has no clue WRT the vast distances in the US west, and the US in general.

Amtrac, the east coast nationalized passenger rail, is massively subsidized so that east coast liberal government and business well to do commuters can be subsidized by illegal alien ditch diggers and fruit and vegetable pickers.

Why, because the east coast elite have the political power, that is why.

And now Cali is building the massively expensive high speed rail from So Cal to Frisco so that west coast elites can soon travel between Silicon Valley and Disneyland again highly subsidized by ditch diggers and fruit pickers.

At least the Brightline will provide travel from LA to LV for non-elites. So maybe even the ditch diggers and fruit pickers can afford to use it, and will actually have a reason to use it.

Brandon rode Amtrac to and from DC to his place in Delaware when he was in the Senate. I wounder why he would support such elitist subsidies. NOW his administration is spending way more billions rebuilding east coast tunnels etc. again for the benefit of east coast elites.

MUn, what a nimrod you are.

0perator
Reply to  John Hultquist
February 26, 2024 11:36 am

It’ll go the way of CA high speed rail. Just wasting billions of dollars.

Drake
Reply to  0perator
February 27, 2024 8:39 am

Actually as a resident of Vegas, I think this will end up supporting itself.

Brightline’s track record in Florida is very good so far.

Now when traveling FROM Vegas to Cali on weekends years ago we usually had smooth sailing because MOST of the traffic was going the other way. BUT I 15 is still only 2 lanes almost the whole way from the NV Cali boarder to Barstow, as it was when I moved to Vegas in 1977. SO, I would probably use the train once it is completed IF I wanted to go to Anaheim for a BB game or such. It would probably be a wash dollar wise once you factor in fuel and parking, etc.

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  John Hultquist
February 27, 2024 3:34 am

They’ll probably end up with a line from Barstow to an empty spot in the desert west of Las Vegas and be looking for another $5 Billion to finish it – but won’t be able to because of NIMBYS in and around Los Angeles and Las Vegas proper.

Drake
Reply to  AGW is Not Science
February 27, 2024 8:57 am

The complete route from LV to Rancho Cucamonga is engineered and EIS is completed, so NO. It is less expensive than increasing I 15 to 3 lanes and 4 lanes where the grade is steep enough to require a truck climbing lane. It will be a new dedicated rail line, one rail to start and possibly later, depending on ridership, a full length 2 track setup.

BTW: I have been following the multiple projected high speed rail plans from LV to Cali for 40 years. Mag lev, etc. were proposed in the past but that is just stupid expensive. I personally think 200 MPH steel on steel will be fine since it will cost less than half what mag lev would cost, both to build and to operate. Most of the design costs for this were subsidized buy the US, Nevada and Cali governments over the last 20 years so the actual government dollar input is higher than anyone imagines.

Unlike Obama’s so called shovel ready projects, this one IS, and they have already started the surveying and boring and other geotechnical work. Take a look:

https://www.brightlinewest.com/overview/project

observa
February 25, 2024 9:40 pm

It’s just not fair with that thar dirty Indo coal!
Australia on the brink as iron ore, nickel, lithium prices collapse | news.com.au — Australia’s leading news site
If we can’t get directly slushfunded then we need consumers to pay a green premium-
Fortescue’s Forrest urges LME to separate nickel contracts into ‘dirty’ and ‘clean’ (msn.com)
Move along cost of living folks nothing to see here and we’re only thinking of green jobs aplenty.

observa
February 25, 2024 9:57 pm

We’re going to be a hydrogen superpower-
The Premier and his hydrogen messaging problem – InDaily
It just takes a bit of imagineering although slushfunding sure helps-
Australia’s first hydrogen tractor to be trialled | Shepparton News (sheppnews.com.au)
Obviously not enough imagineering plus slushfunding in Californy-
Shell PULLS OUT of Hydrogen fuelling in California | MGUY Australia (youtube.com)

observa
Reply to  observa
February 25, 2024 10:12 pm

PS: Superpowering is a competitive business and you have to pick the winners just right-
$140m agreement finalised between Federal and WA Government’s to build a hydrogen hub – PACE Today

MyUsername
February 26, 2024 2:26 am

A Fossil Fuel Economy Requires 535x More Mining Than a Clean Energy Economy
https://www.distilled.earth/p/a-fossil-fuel-economy-requires-535x

More transitions, less risk: How renewable energy reduces risks from mining, trade and political dependence
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2214629621004035

China is building more coal plants but might burn less coal
https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/china-coal-plants

Reply to  MyUsername
February 26, 2024 5:21 am

More transitions, less risk: How renewable energy reduces risks from mining, trade and political dependence

This is leftist-marxist bullshit, what is the mined raw material needed to reduce raw iron ore and silica to steel and glass?

Hint—California next needs to outlaw sheet glass in buildings and cars and PV modules. And the steel needed to support same.

0perator
Reply to  MyUsername
February 26, 2024 7:10 am

Numbers just made up.

Dave Andrews
Reply to  MyUsername
February 26, 2024 9:15 am

IEA ‘The Role of Critical Minerals in the Clean Energy Transition’ (May 2021)

“A typical electric car requires SIX times the mineral inputs of a conventional car and an onshore wind plant requires nine times more mineral resources than a gas fired plant. Since 2018 the average amount of minerals needed for a new unit of power generation has increased by 50% as the share of renewables has risen.

Nick Stokes
Reply to  Dave Andrews
February 26, 2024 1:10 pm

Here is the full context of that quote:
“An energy system powered by clean energy technologies differs profoundly from one fuelled by traditional hydrocarbon resources. Critical minerals such as copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt and rare earth elements are essential components in many of today’s rapidly growing clean energy technologies – from wind turbines and electricity networks to electric vehicles. Demand for these minerals is growing quickly as clean energy transitions gather pace.
Solar PV plants, wind farms and electric vehicles generally require more critical minerals to build than their fossil fuel-based counterparts. A typical electric car requires six times the mineral inputs of a conventional car and an offshore wind plant requires 13 times more mineral resources than a similarly sized gas-fired plant. “

They are obviously referring to their named critical minerals, as derived from the IEA graph posted above. The main component by weight of both EVs and ICVs is iron, and there is no way an EV requires six times as much iron.

Dave Andrews
Reply to  Nick Stokes
February 28, 2024 1:32 am

Nick I’ve replied to you where you made this same comment earlier. The gist of my reply is that a massive increase in mining is necessary and the IEA have put figures on that which I detail in that reply.

bobpjones
February 26, 2024 6:11 am

Whilst into statistics, to replace our installed capacity of c 62GW, entirely with onshore wind, would require c 21,000 sq miles. Whereas if we installed CCGT the size of Pembroke(2.2GW), would require 29 power stations occupying 43 sq miles.

Of course, that doesn’t account for future energy needs, in particular, electrifying heating, transport, as well as future electric demands.

Additionally, a CCGT, could last 80 years, with a midlife refurbish, whereas during that time, the turbines would all have been replaced about four times.

The numbers just don’t make sense.

Capt Jeff
February 26, 2024 7:23 am

What’s the bet wind and solar will lobby for, and get an exemption.

AGW is Not Science
February 26, 2024 8:54 am

You forgot something. You also need to count the (probably gas fired) plants REQUIRED to provide 100% backup to, AND frequency management for, the worse-than-useless wind and solar, as they inefficiently run on “standby” ready to ramp up and meet the quite often unsatisfied demand, or providing fluctuating output to smooth out the garbage electricity produced by the worse-than-useless wind and solar installations.

February 26, 2024 9:07 am

California prides itself on being a leader with respect to tackling climate change.” 

That’s like bragging how many witches you burned last month. They might as well declare themselves the astrology capital of the Americas. Rumour has it the entire state elected government are being fitted with tin foil hats at this moment so as to fend off the dastardly invisible rays of logic being sent their way. You could send the entire lot of these people into an abundant tropical garden and they would starve to death in a week arguing about whether the edible flora and fauna was carbon neutral and therefore safe to consume. Hey, I think I have an idea…