From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
By Paul Homewood
We constantly hear that storms are getting worse because of global warming. These claims are not referring to hurricanes and tropical storms, but the sort of storm which hits the UK several times every winter.
These are known as Extratropical Storms. The clown Jim Dale made this very claim again this week after Strom Gerrit. According to him, it is all to do with warm oceans, which pep up these storms. If this was correct, there would never be any storms in the Arctic. But claims such as this show a basic misunderstanding of meteorology; astonishing for somebody who claims to be a meteorologist!
NOAA explain the difference between tropical and extratropical cyclones (ETCs):
http://web.archive.org/web/20060321200304/http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A7.html
Given that the Arctic has been warming in the last few decades, whilst the tropics have changed little, the temperature differentials they talk about are much smaller now, so ETCs should theoretically be weaker. It is TCs which feed off warm oceans, not ETCs.
As I reported the other day, here, the Met Office acknowledge that storms in the UK are not as strong as in the 1980s and 90s:
As a measure of storminess Figure 51 counts the number of days each year on which at least 20 stations recorded gusts exceeding 40/50/60 Kt (46/58/69 mph). Most winter storms have widespread effects, so this metric will reasonably capture fairly widespread strong wind events. The metric will consider large-scale storm systems rather than localized convective gusts.- The most recent two decades have seen fewer occurrences of max gust speeds above these thresholds than during the previous decades, particularly comparing the period before and after 2000.
This earlier period [before 2000] also included among the most severe storms experienced in the UK in the observational records including the ‘Burns’ Day Storm’ of 25 January 1990, the ‘Boxing Day Storm’ of 26 December 1998 and the ‘Great Storm’ of 16 October 1987. Any comparison of storms is complex as it depends on severity, spatial extent and duration. Storm Eunice was the most severe storm to affect England and Wales since February 2014, but even so, these storms of the 1980s and 1990s were very much more severe.”
However it is also worth looking at global trends. This was the IPCC’s conclusion in AR6:
In short, they can find no trends in either the frequency or intensity of ETCs. In particular, in the Atlantic the number of intense ETCs appears to have increased between 1979 and 1990 (a period of global cooling), and then fell up to 2010.
They also noted a poleward shift since the 1980s. Given that Britain lies in the usual belt of these storms, any shift polewards would tend to move storms north, away from the mainland.
Tropical cyclones are fueled by warm(er), ocean waters. In a warming world the water should be warmer. And with no trend available to confirm a rise in the number of the storms, does that mean that the world’s oceans are not warming?
I bet the ETC’s fall onto the same argument.
Have we been lied to? /sarc
If the data doesn’t support the theory. How long before the theory hits the wastebasket? In the real world, global warming, and it’s associated allies, would have been deleted long ago.
Seems the governments of the world can emit male bovine excrement without consequence.
We’re just here to pay for the(ir) experience.
Eng_Ian, “the theory hitting the wastebasket” is the Null Hypothesis in Science, and you are right to point out that it is disregarded by governments (and their enablers and beneficiaries). The CAGW issue is intertwined with other WOKE issues and similar nonsense. However, there are now appearing glimmers of hope, Gay has resigned as Harvard President, a conservative (Libertarian) President has been elected in Argentina, and Looney Tunes Trump Haters are losing traction. Wait for it.
The air is warmed primarily by interaction with surface, land or water, and by release of latent heat.
As long as we have records of air warming, however corrupted they may be, it reasonable to assume that land and ocean temperatures are increasing.
This does not imply any human causation, of course.
“”As I reported the other day, here, the Met Office acknowledge that storms in the UK are not as strong as in the 1980s and 90s:
Two blindingly obvious reasons for that:
UK is right on the edge of that increasing flow and what it does for the UK is to:
a/ Deflect the storms northwards toward the Arctic where they dump what energy they have and so melt the ice
b/ The expanding outflow of dense dry air causes the storms to become more vigorous while still hundreds of miles out to sea, (as they ascend that mountain of dense dry air) so when/if they do make it ashore on the UK, they are mostly all spent and burnt out
Simply grasp ‘soil erosion’ for a minute or two and everything suddenly falls into place
Over the last 30 years and more there has been one crystal clear trend. And it is still increasing with each passing year in what could be described as a positive feedback that is running out of control.
There’s still no telling when we will hit peak alarmism.
“I thought most of us were going to die from the climate crisis. I was wrong”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/jan/02/hannah-ritchie-not-the-end-of-the-world-extract-climate-crisis
Don’t be fooled; her faith remains undiminished.
Red alert in Antarctica: the year rapid, dramatic change hit climate scientists like a ‘punch in the guts’
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/31/red-alert-in-antarctica-the-year-rapid-dramatic-change-hit-climate-scientists-like-a-punch-in-the-guts
If only that were true. I’d pay to see them doubled up.
“2023 – a year of extreme weather”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/67618626
“Climate change: Seasonal shifts causing ‘chaos’ for UK nature”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67705812
And for those of you who harbour a slight distrust of the WEF, UNhinged etc. fear not. They say they – the special ones (h/t Mr Beanz) – are going to be open….
“”The WEF has released a partial outline of just what is on the agenda at its mostly closed-door 54th annual meeting.
It says it will “provide a crucial space to focus on the fundamental principles driving trust, including transparency, consistency and accountability.””
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2024/01/02/wef-says-davos-2024-meeting-of-the-globalist-elites-all-about-trust/
It’s plot worthy of Graham Linehan.
Is this why griff stopped posting?
https://www.tiktok.com/@beyondandonwards/video/7318671902468214048
I don’t do tock tick
But Griff was all for totalitarianism until WUWT made it a rule to open an account…
NOAA started out predicting an above average hurricane season for 2023, then a little later, they changed their prediction to a near-normal hurricane season, and now they are going to have to change it again to a below-average hurricane season.
Where are all the hurricane’s, NOAA? All that CO2 going into the air, and we have a below-normal hurricane season? Maybe CO2 and hurricane numbers have no connection.
Yuh, I expect them to “update” their predictions from a year ago- a new kind of science.
Actually, their August prediction only over-predicted ACE by 3 units. They did better than Colorado State (over by 15 units) and TSR (under by 6).
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/SeasonalVerification.html
Sorry for not including this but One unit of ACE equals 10−4 knots2
“Where are all the hurricane’s”
Might be hanging with the abused apostrophes.
UAH Dec 2023
Has Hunga Tonga run out of steam?
“. . . the temperature differentials they talk about are much smaller now, so ETCs should theoretically be weaker.”
It’s standard physics of meteorology. The weather is driven by differentials. If there were no differentials, then there would be very little weather.
New crisis coming
The end of weather
quote”No Trends In Extratropical Cyclones
Well that’s a total bummer, those happy hygge-loving folks up in Scandavia could have used a little extra heat, as might be delivered by the occasional AlphabetSoupOclone
Here’s a nice picture of some Tesla owners from that part the world
And another of the owner operator of a Heat. Pump. – they work really well in Scandavia doncha know
(The heat pumps, I can’t vouch for the owners)
enjoy
My IPCC Rule of Thumb
If they say there’s an uptrend (bad news)
I assume they mean no trend
If they say there’s no trend
I assume there’s a downtrend (good news)
If they say it’s 3:18pm
I check my watch
But if they say
“Scientists say climate change
causes man’s favorite organ to shrink
and women to get facial warts”,
then I’m a believer
You just do not doubt scientists.
The main think thats been note worthy about the UK’s recent run of stormy weather is not that the storms were stronger. But rather there often tracked over the UK rather then to the north of th UK. So they have had more impact on the UK then otherwise would be the case.
The only really rare event we have had was storm Ciaran. To have a storm track across the UK with such a low cental pressure was a very rare event indeed.
l have owned my barometer since October 1994 and when storm Ciaran went passed l recorded the lowest pressure reading since owning the barometer. Where my barometer went down to 28.17 inches (954 millibars). l think you have to go back to the 1920’s to find a recorded lower pressure reading then this within the UK.
meant “The thing”
What catches my attention is the variable number of storms over the decades. The number and severity seems to be oscillating up and down while CO2 (the gas of life) has been on a slow and steady increase over the past decades. From the very first posts I read about CAGW back in the 1990’s until today, it baffles me how all other drivers of climate change are ignored by the government funded talking heads.
“The UK State of the Climate report states that there are no compelling trends in storminess when considering maximum gust speeds over the last four decades. There is currently low confidence in attributing any changes to the number or position of storms in the Northern Hemisphere, including those affecting the UK.”
Met Office UK
…. but everything else.. Oh my GOD!!
I can’t get my head round this Arctic warming thing. The famous Danish Met Office series of temperatures of the ‘Arctic above 80N’ from 1958 to today shows temperature getting to about one and a half for three weeks in summer every year. Every year. I’ll allow there may be ‘ warmer’ minuses during the other months of the year but colour me unimpressed.
Here is UAH NoPol this century.
Apart from a spike in 2016 followed by cooling, and brief short spike in the last several months …
(I wonder what caused them) 😉
Where is the “warming” ?