Essay by Eric Worrall
“We are making progress” – but it sure doesn’t smell like progress.
From The Guardian;
Cop28: ‘failure is not an option,’ says summit president – as it happened
Sultan Al Jaber calls for countries to come together amid disagreements over the future of climate action
‘Failure is not an option’ – Al Jaber
Fiona Harvey
Sultan Al Jaber, president of Cop28, made a last-ditch call for all countries to come together this afternoon in Dubai, to find common ground amid deep disagreements over the future of climate action.
Everyone would be listened to, he said, emphasising as he has done from the start that this must be an inclusive process. “Everyone’s experience and national circumstances have merit and will be taken in consideration. We will not ignore anyone. As I’ve said many times, we will not neglect any issue, we will not neglect or undermine or underestimate any of the views or the national circumstances of any region or any country. And I promise that they will all be heard,” he said.
…
Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/live/2023/dec/10/cop28-live-focus-on-food-and-agriculture-as-climate-change-summit-continues
I actually feel a little sorry for Sultan Al Jaber. Despite being a big oil boss, I think he genuinely expected parties to behave rationally, that participants would be persuaded to buy his gas to help ween their economies off coal and oil, and everyone could go home and report real progress towards reducing global CO2 emissions.
What Al Jaber didn’t reckon on is the sheer irrationality of the climate movement. No agreement which includes a future role for fossil fuel is politically acceptable to Western climate extremists, no matter how much it reduces CO2 emissions. To the green extremists driving this entire process, Al Jaber has committed blasphemy by suggesting fossil fuel has a future. There is also a real possibility many participants at the COP conferences don’t actually want genuine progress, they just want someone to blame for the lack of progress.
Al Jaber is the perfect fall guy for the coming blame storm – he’s a big oil executive, and he was in charge of COP28.
Pinning the blame for failure on Al Jaber could have commercial consequences for the UAE economy, if greens in Europe and elsewhere demand the scapegoat be punished.
As the Green Blob wants to vandalize world economies, the UAE is being treated equally, as just another Capitalist exploiter. Only a fascist socialism run by the Green Blob is acceptable, and Wreckers are the only reason why their plans are not working perfectly. Just ask them.
“fascist socialism”
nazi commies?
If you know history, there are varieties of socialism, and the fascist is but one flavor. I do not accept the Stalinist definition of socialism as a stage of the inevitable Communist Path. The NSDAP were also socialists, just not Marxist-Leninist.
Quite right, Tom. They had an indentical method of operation.
For Marxist socialists, the target group is the bourgeoisie. For National socialists, the target group is the Jews. Otherwise, no difference between them whatsoever.
Nationalsozialistische Deutsche Arbeiterpartei,
German National Socialist Workers’ Party. NSDAP. Clue in the name. They were not Fascists, that was Mussolini’s mob, but they (Hitler) did adopt the Fascist State economic model. Unlike the Socialist economic model where the means of production are owned by the State and the State owns the individual’s labour output, Fascism leaves means of production in private hands and individuals own their own output. BUT… in both models everyone must endeavour as directed by the State in the interests of the State as determined by those running the State. So really a case of you say tomaytoe, I say tomaahtoe.
In fact the Fascist model is remarkably similar to today’s Western economic model, particularly considering the EU. I wonder why that might be?
Both Hitler and Mussolini were ardent Socialists who, following their experiences in the trenches in WWI, concluded that Socialism was not a class struggle but a struggle between nations – in Hitler’s case a race struggle too. In the trenches they saw fellow workers – supposedly the same class – fighting each other out of their own national interests.
Socialism and Fascism are not Left v Right polar opposites, they are both over there on the political Left, two ugly sisters with shared genes.
no politics not related to gw, please
Here is a quote from the guy (a Canadian communist) Maurice Strong who created the UNFCCC, Rio Earth Summit, Kyoto Protocol, IPCC with the remit to study nd report on the environmental damage caused by burning FF:
“What if a small group of world leaders were to conclude that the principal risk to the Earth comes from the actions of the rich countries?… In order to save the planet, the group decides: Isn’t the only hope for the planet that the industrialized civilizations collapse? Isn’t it our responsibility to bring that about?”
Gregory, the task of you young guys is to recognize that education of the last 3-4 generations has been political lefty propaganda designed for ulterior purpose . You have to educate yourself and transcend this cookie cutter pap. You have at least happened upon a website that gives you a leg up on the minions who simply accept unquestioningly the official line. By all means, argue a lot but take advantage of this opportunity.
Uhh…Nazi is short for “Nationalist Socialism” as named by Hitler who was a socialist from beginning to end.
“Fascism” comes from the “fasces”, a bundle of sticks tied together—-the symbol of the Roman Empire. Mussolini was a leader of the Italian Communist Party. His “fascism” as an economic theory proposed that the goals of socialism could best be achieved by utilizing the efficiency of private corporations——but have those corporations dominated by government. Obamacare is structured consistent with Mussolini’s fascism.
Mussolini used the symbol of Rome because his goals included reviving the greatness of the old Empire. This was his justification for invading North Africa, a part of old Rome.
Oddly enough the United States uses a great many versions in iconography related to the Senate and the Federal government, as a symbol from the Roman Republic rather than the Italian Fascisti.
Oh dear.. you are displaying your ignorance again, allusedup
All part of the far-left totalitarian crapsters.
Yeah, us totalitarian anarchists are up to no good.
Then stop it.
Admission of fact.. OK !
At least you know it to be so..
Many far-leftists are in total denial of the totalitarian nature behind the AGW scam.
“ I think he genuinely expected parties to behave rationally, that participants would be persuaded to buy his gas to help ween their economies off coal and oil, and everyone could go home and report real progress towards reducing global CO2 emissions.”
So … you think he’s an ignoramus? (I think he’s positioning himself to sell gas – either to the European ruling class or the ones who replace them when people have suffered enough.)
I think that, like Trump, he simply had no idea of the depth and breadth of the swamp he was entering.
COP28 a flop?
Think again
Phasing out or phasing down fossil fuels, purposely leaves in place high energy consumption per capita in the Western world, while preventing such high energy consumption per capita in Africa, without which their economies cannot develop.
That leaves plenty of fossil fuels available for the Western world, because Africans will not be allowed to use them.
They will be reminded by the West, with a big stick:
“You are in phase-out/phase-down mode”
“You are allowed to use high-cost wind, solar and batteries which we, the West, will provide,
“We, the West, will loan you the money, at high interest rates, to hang yourself forever.
Africans would stay soooo screwed, and stay soooo colonized
Be prepared for more migration to the West.
People do what they gotta do.
I am sure the UAE has plenty of potential customers for its exports – and also suppliers for its ventures like Barakah. Al Jaber will not be worried at all. Which Western nations are importing diesel from Ruwais refinery for example, now they foreswear Russian supply?
The UK imported some 1.7 million tonnes of avtur and diesel from the UAE in the first 9 months of 2023. I recall a previous prime minister went on a begging trip in 2020.
Pity the Sultan can’t pull a ‘Musk’ on ’em. Somebody should :<)
Al, COP28 was fun….see you at COP29….Failure is not an option….Progress is our most important product….CO2 is not a problem.
CO2 is not a problem, but rather an opportunity.
C02 as a problem, is a marketing tool to sell wind turbines, solar panels, backup batteries and EV’s. The biggest scam in the history of mankind. Sad fact is that their roll-out is causing more damage globally than would have occurred if C02 actually was a problem.
CO2 is not a problem … which is why no one can identify how much “man-made” CO2 warmed the earth last year – or any year.
“Pinning the blame for failure on Al Jaber could have commercial consequences for the UAE economy, if greens in Europe and elsewhere demand the scapegoat be punished.”
If the complainers actually think his nation or anyone else would punish him, they are sooo naive. He’s more likely to get a hero award.
NO SOLUTIONS REQUIRED, THANK YOU: It is self evident that the only technically rational solution is gas replacing coal and nuclear replacing both in electricity generation, cheapest and most sustainable by far, also sea freight can be nuclearised very effectively. Nuclear can be used to synthesise liquid hydrocarbons when its is in place atscale and much cheaper, as its has the potential to be at scale.
The REAL point is, that activists don’t want the problems solved, because that ends their power and boondoggles.
Nuclear in enrgy, GM foods in agricultural productivity, etc, solve the supposed problems without imposing regressive solutions and enacting regressive subsidies and taxation on the mass of people by law, in the name of fake soutions or to disadvanatge what works best for most by law,
Because real solutions, that the market will prefer, render the activists unemployed and powerless.
So they don’t want solutions, because that is what is best for most – we, the people they claim to act in the name of and don’t – but is not what’s best for the activist deceivers, because their phoney problems and regressive solutions they impose in their names provide the basis of their power, and justifies their their funding by the controlling elites with global political agendas, at our expense.
CEng, CPHys, MBA
Here’s where they ‘come together’ to make some meaningless far off ‘pledges’, declare victory, and promise to bring even more of their country club buddies on their private jets for next year!
Cheers!
Should have started with SPOILER ALERT (for those that haven’t seen this movie 27 times already).
What a bunch of useless parasites, sucking the money out of the peasants pockets.
““We are making progress” – but it sure doesn’t smell like progress.”
You know why, don’t you?
https://vigilantnews.com/post/loud-fart-erupts-john-kerrys-speech-on-climate-change-overshadowed-by-audible-call-to-reduce-personal-methane-contributions-video/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
I predict that the hotly proposed language “phase out fossil fuels” will not appear in the final COP 28 document. A lot of sensible countries are agin it.
COPs are not democracies. Every country has a veto and several seem adamantly against this language.
See my https://www.cfact.org/2023/11/29/un-cop-28-is-not-a-democracy/ where I made the same prediction last month.
The language is gone!
https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/11/climate/cop-28-draft-agreement-fossil-fuel-monday/index.html
I believe that “ failure is the ONLY option” that’s my new tag line. That is the only thing that will get the entire mob blob to reconsider and examine their fallacious rhetoric and reasoning process. 100 s of millions will have to experience out of control inflation, economic contraction and stifling personel and public debt loads before people come their senses and boot these people to kingdom come.
Define ‘failure’.
A COPfest success in getting rid of all fossil fuels would be an abject failure.
A situation where the COP’s were deemed to be a complete failure and abandoned, without agreements, would be a successful outcome.
“Failure … is not an option”
Of course it isn’t, it’s a feature.
So that there will be following COP vacations with partying and fine food.
Allow me to suggest that their frustration at COP28 is a product of simply trying to do things bass ackwards. Unless they plan on building a heck of a lot of current generation nuclear plants, there really isn’t any technological replacements for fossil fuels. Current generation nuclear in the western countries is frightfully costly and time consuming to build. Hydroelectric is probably not a significant viable replacement at this stage in the West.
A post-fossil fuels era will only arrive some day when the commercially viable and cost effective technological alternatives to fossil fuels are found and make it possible. That era will NOT get here with climate alarmist narrative pushers that seeks to demonize and drive out fossil fuels in the absence of those alternatives.
The green energy and climate activists can pound on the table, stomp their feet and throw temper tantrums until kingdom come with their demands, but I believe my bold-type statement above is going to be the reality they will have to live with whether they like it or not. Sadly, we may get to COP50 or higher before people start to wake up and realize it.
“Failure … is not an option”.
True. It is not even the only option.
It is a guaranteed certainty.
True, it was built into the process from the very beginning. The only question is, why were they set up to fail?
I suppose the news of the mighty freeze which has engulfed Europe and Russia has been carefully excluded from the sensitive precepts of COP 28. Pretty contradictory to the glamorous concept of global warming, but one shouldn’t rush to divest all one’s oil industry stocks, either.
You most know that if it’s warm it’s climate change, if it’s cold it’s climate change,
and if it’s just pleasant, climate change is just around the corner and will kill us all.
Nuclear to make electricity.
Coal or hydro to fill in the peaks
Use natural gas for transport
As much solar as you like: for air-conditioners or building ice-banks for cold stores etc BUT – the solar inverters must be grid-frequency aware/sensitive and thus able to throttle themselves down. or up maybe even
Forget all about wind, far too variable, unreliable and the machines age too fast
Save all the oil for making useful things
Diesel much better for any transport over long distances, over 100 miles or so. Also gas with refilling available EVERYWHERE and refill time 5 to 10 minutes.
Natural gas takes LARGE tanks.
Now for a commuter and with the ability to refill your tank at HOME with your own low pressure pump, natural gas beats the hell out of EVs. AND like EVs you avoid paying your FAIR share of road taxes.
Wake up in the morning with a full tank of NG and on you go, for over 100 miles of range. BUT almost nowhere to refuel if not in Cali of other like area that has installed capacity to refill NG vehicles.
There are quite a few CNG fueling stations available, but you do have to plan your trip:
https://ngvamerica.org/fuel/ngv-station-map/#/find/nearest?fuel=CNG,%20LNG
Or, just get government planners out of this and let the market sort things out. Usually that works best.
The “Conference of Parties” is aptly named. Sums the whole thing up.
The US-EIA is engaging in a gross deception regarding the costs of wind, solar, batteries, EVs, etc., which is fed to politicians and the public and the Media.
The purpose is to brainwash the people to pay more for electricity/kWh than would be the case if only fossil and nuclear and hydro were used.
The public is told wind and solar are competitive with fossil, which is total BS.
Levelized Cost of Energy by US-EIA
The wind/solar/battery bubble is in meltdown mode. This is not a surprise, because the US-EIA makes LCOE “evaluations” of W/S/B systems that purposely exclude major LCOE items.
The EIA deceptions reinforced the delusion W/S are competitive with fossil fuels, which is far from reality.
The excluded LOCE items are shifted to taxpayers, ratepayers, and added to government debts.
W/S would not exist without at least 50% subsidies
W/S output could not be physically fed into the grid, without the last four freebies.
1) Subsidies equivalent to about 50% of project owning and operations cost,
2) Grid extension/reinforcement to connect remote W/S to load centers
3) A fleet of quick-reacting power plants to counteract the W/S up/down output, on a less-than-minute-by-minute basis, 24/7/365,
4) A fleet of power plants to provide electricity during low-W/S periods, and during high-W/S periods, when rotors are feathered and locked,
5) Output curtailments to prevent overloading the grid, i.e., paying owners for not producing what they could have produced
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/biden-30-000-mw-of-offshore-wind-systems-by-2030-a-total-fantasy
EXCERPT from
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/battery-system-capital-costs-losses-and-aging
Example of Turnkey Cost of Large-Scale, Megapack Battery System, 2023 pricing
?itok=lxTa2SlF
The system consists of 50 Megapack 2, rated 45.3 MW/181.9 MWh, 4-h energy delivery
Power = 50 Megapacks x 0.979 MW x 0.926, Tesla design factor = 45.3 MW
Energy = 50 Megapacks x 3.916 MWh x 0.929, Tesla design factor = 181.9 MWh
Estimate of supply by Tesla, $90 million, or $495/kWh. See URL
Estimate of supply by Others, $14.5 million, or $80/kWh
All-in, turnkey cost about $575/kWh; 2023 pricing
https://www.tesla.com/megapack/design
<a href=”https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2022-03-21_15-28-46.png?itok=lxTa2SlF” target=”_blank” rel=”noopener nofollow ugc”
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/tesla-hikes-megapack-prices-commodity-inflation-soars
Annual Cost of Megapack Battery Systems; 2023 pricing
Assume a system rated 45.3 MW/181.9 MWh, and an all-in turnkey cost of $104.5 million, per Example 2
Amortize bank loan for 50% of $104.5 million at 6.5%/y for 15 years, $5.462 million/y
Pay Owner return of 50% of $104.5 million at 10%/y for 15 years, $6.738 million/y (10% due to high inflation)
Lifetime (Bank + Owner) payments 15 x (5.462 + 6.738) = $183 million
Assume battery daily usage for 15 years at 10%, and losses at 19%
Battery output = 15 y x 365 d/y x 181.9 MWh x 0.1, usage x 1000 kWh/MWh = 99,590,250 kWh delivered to HV grid
(Bank + Owner) payments, $183 million / 99,590,250 kWh = 183.8 c/kWh
Less 50% subsidies (ITC, depreciation in 5 years, deduction of interest on borrowed funds) is 91.9c/kWh
At 10% usage, publicized cost, 91.9 c/kWh
At 40% usage, publicized cost, 23.0 c/kWh
Excluded costs/kWh: 1) O&M; 2) system aging, 3) system losses from HV grid to HV grid, 3) grid extension/reinforcement to connect the battery systems, 5) downtime of parts of the system, 6) decommissioning in year 15, i.e., disassembly, reprocessing and storing at hazardous waste sites.
NOTE: The 40% usage is close to Tesla’s recommendation of 60% usage, i.e., not charging above 80% and not discharging below 20%. Tesla’s recommendation was not heeded be owners of the Hornsdale Power Reserve. They added Megapacks to offset rapid aging of the original system and added more Megapacks to increase the rating of the expanded system.
http://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/the-hornsdale-power-reserve-largest-battery-system-in-australia
Azerbaijan is up next – and it’s a fossil fuel state
It’s also a rather interesting choice, based on BRICS potential membership. UAE has been invited to join and Egypt’s president visited Azerbaijan in regards to BRICS interest, presumably seeing if the Azeri’s were willing to commit.
Is the west using COPfest as an encouragement not to join BRICS?
It is impossible to reason with lunatics.
Failure … is not an option,it’s a must.
I really fail too understand why Sultan Al Jaber, with the World listening, did not shout from the rooftops that Carbon Dioxide follows the rise in Temperature and his ‘black gold’ is not to blame?!
Although he knows better, he’s trying to get along by agreeing to get along. That’s always a mistake.
It should be called “Chamberlaining.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neville_Chamberlain
Those are comments better reserved for sane people with critical thinking skills and an appreciation for the scientific process. Those folks are hard to find at COP 28 along with all the preceding COP meetings and IPCC confabs.
Those traits are probably more commonly found among the ‘camp followers’ working overtime at the parties.
Unlike most of the COP boondoggles, this one is clearly NOT a failure due to the simple fact that the Host hasn’t lied through his teeth, and spoke the Truth for the first time I can recall. Got him into a lot of trouble, but may perhaps be the best thing to come out of this mess.
He gains some credibility, but not with the alarmists or COP party-goers.
Failure is not an option, it is a certainty. There is no way that Net zero can be anything but social and economic suicide. Whether they agree or not on this suicide pact, the world of people trying to live their lives and to thrive in spit of this stupidity will not let it succeed. Sultan Al Jaber doesn’t need our sympathy. He is in the business of providing energy to people who want to buy it. His business is secure. The business of those who want human society to passively and cooperatively just dies from hunger and cold is the business that is doomed.
When you are dealing with climate fundamentalists, and you are looking for give and take, success is not an option.
Of course failure is not an option because based on COP’s lack of success since the first conference in 1995, it’s a guarantee. Note as usual there are no penalties for failure to meet any emissions reduction targets or any strong indications of declining fossil fuel use. That’s because no country would agree to a treaty that forced it to send money to an unelected semi-dysfunctional organization like the UN which would probably direct it to equally dysfunctional and even more corrupt Third World recipients. Forget about any successes from COP; it’s proved to be nothing more than a non-productive gabfest that provides a free ride to delegates who know they won’t have to produce any positive results.
As a diversion from the previous failures, they are beating the methane drums.
I only have old Anglo Saxon words for the dear president and it relates to sex and travel.