Susan Crockford
Official confirmation has come in this morning that polar bears that have spent the summer fasting along Western Hudson Bay now have enough ice to move offshore. That makes this year a bit later than usual (average is 16 November) but is not one of the extremely late freeze-ups, as happened in 1981, 2016 and 2021 when bears didn’t leave until the first week of December (Castro de la Guardia et al. 2017; Miller et al. 2022). Since breakup of sea ice came earlier than usual this summer, this means (as of 30 November) many bears will have been off the ice and without food for 166 days or 5.5 months.
However, so far, there have been no reports from this region of incidents of cannibalism, starving bears found wandering the landscape like zombies, or desperate attacks on people that polar bear specialists have warned us to expect (Abrahms et al. 2023; Stirling and Derocher 2012; Wilder et al. 2017).
Tracking WH Bears
Courtesy Andrew Derocher, University of Alberta, who monitors WH bears:
Close-up of the tracking map below. Note that pregnant females will stay ashore to give birth so not all of these tagged bears are expected to head onto the ice this fall to hunt for seals:
Still not a word from the Polar Bear Alert folks in Churchill, who as of today, haven’t released any of their weekly reports since 23 October 2023.
Ice Conditions in Canada
At 30 November 2023, courtesy Canadian Ice Services shows the expanding band of ice developing along the western shore of Hudson Bay but note also that the rest of the Canadian Arctic, as well as the Beaufort Sea, is completely covered in ice, as is most of Baffin Bay and Foxe Basin:
References
Abrahms, B., Carter, N.H., Clark-Wolf, T.J., et al. 2023. Climate change as a global amplifier of human–wildlife conflict. Nature Climate Change 13:224-234. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01608-5
Castro de la Guardia, L., Myers, P.G., Derocher, A.E., Lunn, N.J., Terwisscha van Scheltinga, A.D. 2017. Sea ice cycle in western Hudson Bay, Canada, from a polar bear perspective. Marine Ecology Progress Series 564: 225–233. http://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v564/p225-233/
Miller, E.N., Lunn, N.J., McGeachy, D., and Derocher, A.E. 2022. Autumn migration phenology of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in Hudson Bay, Canada. Polar Biology 45:1023-1034.
Stirling, I. and Derocher, A.E. 2012. Effects of climate warming on polar bears: a review of the evidence. Global Change Biology 18(9): 2694–2706.
Wilder, J.M., Vongraven, D., Atwood, T., et al. 2017. Polar bear attacks on humans: implications of a changing climate. Wildlife Society Bulletin 41(3):537-547. https://doi.org/10.1002/wsb.783
Good for the CAGW Poster Child, the Polar Bear, but I can’t help but wonder what the seals call this day?
Maybe next year. It’s a religion.
It has been religion for quite some time…
I can’t speak for the madhouse known as Canada, but here in southern England the cold is bang on time and quite severe.
How it can be colder in a warming world has yet to be [accurately] explained.
I’m off to get some more [smokeless] coal etc. Stuff Charles and the acolytes.
That’s Charles Windsor….
Thanks for clarifying… I thought his name was “Stuff Charles”.
It’s warming in the urban areas because of all the asphalt and concrete and that is where most of the weather stations are located in the world.
Quirky story tip
Nigel Farage is a contestant in ‘I’m a celebrity get me out of here’ – in Australia. Contestants are voted to remain by the public, the loser leaves the jungle. Nobody has got this sort of attention before…
“Bid to CANCEL Nigel heightens: Now two Labour MPs call for public to vote Farage OUT of jungle
“ITV should never have given him a platform to launder his reputation and I would urge anyone considering voting to keep him on to think twice,” [Labour MP Nadia] Whittome told the Mirror. She added: “Farage is not some affable clown but a poisonous influence on our society.”
[Labour MP] Kim Johnson added: “People should remember where Farage came from, what he’s said and what he’s been responsible for.”
https://www.gbnews.com/news/bid-to-cancel-nigel-two-labour-mps-farage-jungle
A clear case of [remainer] Farage derangement syndrome.
I suspect that the Great British Public are going to vote to keep Farage on as a result of this.
Two women Labour MPs, huh? If Farage is voted to stay, don’t these lefty global dominion gals understand that this is a vote against the “poisonous influence” they have on our society?
There is an article, “A New Reality to Bear”, in today’s Winnipeg Free Press stating that “As climate change increasingly drives El Niños — making the warmer global weather pattern both more frequent and more severe — residents in Churchill, and communities across Canada’s Arctic, are preparing for a new reality, one in which the largest land predator in the world comes into contact with people more often.” I have understood that ENSO events are not caused by global warming. Does anyone here have a recommendation for a good read on how ENSO is affected by global warming? Thanks.
What about the “Pizzly” bears? Pizzly bears are a cross between Grizzlies and Polar bears ….are they discriminated against?….and …..and what about the Siberian Polar bears….invading garbage dumps for food….do they need foreign aid?
They look more cuddly.
Dates (the calendar type) are not of much interest to bears but I wonder if they might like the type a local grocery store had yesterday – perfectly plump Medjool dates!
Anyway, the time interval of 166 days is amazing. I can’t imagine going for 7 days (~166 Hours) without food. At least a chocolate bar or cookies would be needed. 🙂
Thanks, Susan.
One question in my mind is whether the bears are really going without food, or switching to alternate prey? They might be able to live off stored fat by remaining inactive for the warmest half of the year, but they have survived several interglacials, so I suspect “nap and wait for cold weather” is not their only warm climate survival strategy.
The blockage of the polar vortex over the Bering Sea causes an easterly circulation over northern Canada. A smaller polar vortex is forming over Canada.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/webAnims/tpw_nrl_colors/namer/mimictpw_namer_latest.gif
Thank you, Susan Crockford, for your pre-emptive strike against the crisis polar bear journalism that generally strikes the media this time of year.
If the P. bears are in good shape and there are no problem bears reported despite extended time ashore, then they have found other food. Papers abound on the Great Greening in the Arctic and sub Arctic, i.e. NW Manitoba. Trougher scientists, of course, are sworn not to talk about expanded habitat (makes increased CO2 greatly net beneficial), which any sensible person will know is happening.
Indian and Bangladeshi biologists report rapid expansion of tiger populations:
https://www.globalcitizen.org/en/contt/indias-bengal-tiger-population-on-the-rise/
Sensible persons need not be told that tigers’ prey must have expanded even more than that of the tigers! Ditto, land-based animals in sub Arctic Manitoba: beaver, wolves, moose, caribou, bison and a variety of fur-bearing animals. Wolves reportedly even eat a lot of mice in between bigger kills.
If you want to understand polar bear resiliency, look at the map of tagged WHB bears again and see one tagged bear that swam across to Ikulivik northern Quebec 920km, another walked to Fort Severen Ontario (500km) and a third to Rankin Inlet, Nunavut 500km farther north. Also in June-July, thousands of beluga whales swim close to shore to calve and feed. They favor the favor warmer waters at the mouths of rivers. Hmmm, tasty.
”without food for 166 days”
Why? No plants, no worms, no crabs, no shellfish, no insects in summer?