Study: EV’s are Cars for People Who Don’t Need to Drive (as much)

Notable lines from the following article.

If federal agencies are overestimating true mileage, that results in overestimating the emissions savings.

Additionally, the researchers say it’s also important to consider that making a battery-powered EV typically results in higher upfront emissions compared to making a gasoline vehicle. Helveston and the research team says it will take longer to compensate for those higher up-front emissions if people aren’t driving the EV enough.

New study finds electric vehicles are driven less than gas cars

One of the largest studies to date finds the current generation of EV owners drive far fewer miles than owners of gas vehicles, translating to lower emissions savings from EVs.Peer-Reviewed Publication

GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY

WASHINGTON (November 6, 2023) – Mass adoption of electric vehicles (EV) is a key part of plans to decarbonize the United States’ energy system. As EV ownership in the U.S. increases, understanding how much EV owners are driving their cars informs everything from climate and energy models to U.S. policy and energy planning. Thus far, the assumption among modelers and regulatory bodies like the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has been that EV owners drive their cars about the same number of miles as owners of gas vehicles. New research published in Joule, however, challenges that assumption and suggests we may be overestimating emissions savings from EVs. 

In one of the largest studies on EV mileage to date, researchers at the George Washington University and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory examined odometer data from 12.9 million used cars and 11.9 million used SUVs between 2016 and 2022. They found that battery electric vehicle (BEV) cars were driven almost 4,500 fewer miles annually than gas cars. The study found a gap for both cars and SUVs: electric cars had traveled 7,165 miles while gas-powered cars had traveled 11,642 miles annually, and electric SUVs traveled 10,587 miles while their gas-powered counterparts traveled 12,945 miles annually. 

“People often assume that buying an EV is good for the environment, and it generally is, but the impacts scale with mileage,” John Helveston, study co-author and Assistant Professor of Engineering Management and Systems Engineering at GW, says. “Our study shows that the current generation of EV owners aren’t using them as much as gas cars. For maximum impact, we need the highest-mileage drivers behind the wheel of EVs rather than low-mileage drivers.” Because EVs generally have lower emissions over their lifetime, replacing a higher-mileage gasoline vehicle with an EV results in larger emissions savings, all else being equal.

The researchers also compared miles traveled in Tesla versus non-Tesla BEVs, given Tesla’s prominence in the EV market and other features like higher-range vehicles and a well-established fast-charging network. Nonetheless, they found that while Teslas were driven more than other EVs, Teslas were still driven less than conventional gas cars. The study did show that plug-in hybrid and hybrid vehicles were driven similarly to gas vehicles, however.

The study has implications for policymakers and regulators who are drafting and implementing emissions regulations, as the findings challenge current assumptions about how far people are driving their electric vehicles. For example, the latest analysis from the EPA assumes EVs are already driven the same number of miles as conventional gas cars. 

“If you’re going to craft a model that predicts how much emissions can be saved from EV adoption, that model heavily depends on how much you think EVs will be driven. If federal agencies are overestimating true mileage, that results in overestimating the emissions savings,” Helveston adds. “We need to better understand not just who is buying EVs, but how they’re driving them. What trips are EV owners substituting for a cleaner trip in an EV, and what trips are EV owners not taking?” 

While not a focus of the study, Helveston suggested a couple of factors that may be affecting how far EV owners are driving their cars, including a lack of charging infrastructure that may limit EV owners’ ability to reliably take longer-distance trips. Researchers also suggest multi-vehicle households may be another reason behind these findings; people who own EVs often own multiple vehicles, and they may be spreading out their annual miles over each of them, resulting in lower overall mileage on the EV.

“The magnitude of data used in this study posed several technical challenges, but I hope our efforts can inform policy around the impacts of EV adoption”, said Lujin Zhao, a GW Ph.D. student who led the study.

The study’s findings also have implications for the electricity grid as it means the anticipated electricity consumption from EV adoption may be lower than utilities are planning for. Additionally, the researchers say it’s also important to consider that making a battery-powered EV typically results in higher upfront emissions compared to making a gasoline vehicle. Helveston and the research team says it will take longer to compensate for those higher up-front emissions if people aren’t driving the EV enough.

The study, “Quantifying Electric Vehicle Mileage in the United States,” was published in Joule. The research was supported by a grant from the Electric Power Research Institute.

-GW-


JOURNAL

Joule

DOI

10.1016/j.joule.2023.09.015 

ARTICLE TITLE

Quantifying Electric Vehicle Mileage in the United States

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

24-Oct-2023

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Sweet Old Bob
November 6, 2023 6:05 pm

Another bit of sanity appears ….

😉

Bryan A
Reply to  Sweet Old Bob
November 6, 2023 8:49 pm

Sounds like another way of saying
People who need to travel any distance to work daily prefer I C vehicles likely due to the potential for range anxiety that’s associated with B E V ownership. So only people who commute minimal miles daily are buying B E Vs thus B E Vs aren’t driven as far as I C vehicles

November 6, 2023 6:44 pm

When we are all forced to drive EVs then we should be driving the same number of miles as now in ICEs unless the increased ‘refueling’ time reduces the hours available to travel.

Reply to  John in Oz
November 7, 2023 1:54 am

EVs are being driven less than gasoline vehicles.
Gee, what a surprise.

This has been known for at least 5 years from California data.

This study just confirms it

The lapdog, subsidized Media is carefully hiding the data, not broadcasting it, to artificially boost EV adoption.

They do not want to loose ACCESS to government bureaucrats regarding the latest stories, and associated scare-mongering, to remain in good graces

The Media also do not mention insurance rates, which are 3 to 4 times higher fro EVs, totally wiping out any fuel cost savings

WE ARE SOOOOO GREEN.

Get into an accident, the battery gets shaken up, a short may develop in one of the thousands of cells, and you are so screwed, because you will need a new battery for $15000 to $20000.

This info is directly from the owner of a body shop, when I asked him about a Tesla, which had relatively minor damage
He said we are waiting for a new battery.

MarkW
Reply to  wilpost
November 7, 2023 9:24 am

Hopefully he had removed the battery and was storing it well away from everything else.

Neo
Reply to  John in Oz
November 7, 2023 10:42 am

Why isn’t DC an EV only town ?

Make them live it .. 24/7/365

gezza1298
Reply to  John in Oz
November 7, 2023 3:30 pm

Waiting time for a charger plus the charging time will eat into your day. Travelling salespeople will visit a lot fewer customers.

John Hultquist
November 6, 2023 6:56 pm

 An EV buyer has the mental character of a Paddle ball player.
[A one-person game played with a paddle and a ball attached via an elastic string]
A charger acts as the paddle and the attached rubber ball is the EV.
Traveling the open road (a poem; and more) is a concept unknown to an EV owner.
See the USA in your Chevrolet (a commercial jingle) is another contrast.
Am I revealing my age? 🙂

OldRetiredGuy
November 6, 2023 6:58 pm

Been driving my son’s Tesla Model 3 for a week while wife and I are watching the grandkids. The acceleration (3.1 to 60) and cornering like it’s on rails are fun, especially on the hills and curves here. But it only has 240 mile range at 80%, so it’s always connected to charge. Not a big deal around the city, but dealing with superchargers on a road trip??? Don’t see taking it across Nevada on The Loneliest Highway (US 50), that’s for sure.

Chasmsteed
Reply to  OldRetiredGuy
November 7, 2023 3:18 am

I drove a demo Tesla S which had been – shall we say – driven spiritedly – and with just over 10000 miles on the clock the tyres were shot.
My son drives an Audi e-tron around the Nurbergring – certainly not a fair test – but tyre and battery management are an ongoing problem. At race pace it can manage about two thirteen mile laps – but the tyres go “greasy” (literally start melting) after the first lap.
That feeling of “cornering on rails” is because of the 1 ton battery low down in the chassis – but tearing around in a 2.8 ton behemoth is hard on the tyres.
I suspect tyre costs on an EV might come as a surprise to some drivers.

Reply to  Chasmsteed
November 7, 2023 4:08 am

“That feeling of “cornering on rails” is because of the 1 ton battery low down in the chassis”

Yes. That should make it hold the road better.

gezza1298
Reply to  Chasmsteed
November 7, 2023 3:28 pm

Suspension and steering parts also wear out so far from being cheaper to maintain they are more expensive.

Reply to  OldRetiredGuy
November 7, 2023 7:25 am

That’s just it – EV’s are fine as toy cars and the highway equivalent of a go-kart, but are simply not up to the job of replacing ICE vehicles; not now and probably not ever.

MarkW
Reply to  OldRetiredGuy
November 7, 2023 9:26 am

Lead foot driving is murder on mileage. Both for EVs and ICEVs.

MarkW
Reply to  MarkW
November 7, 2023 9:27 am

Both miles/gallon and feet/kWh.

Chris Hanley
November 6, 2023 7:23 pm

In one case study Volkswagen found that for manufacture and driving the first 60,000 miles a small EV using a small battery (e-Golf) will emit more CO2 (including from power plants) than a comparable diesel sedan.
Volvo in a similar study found an e-SUV with a mid-size battery had greater emissions than a comparable gasoline SUV for the first 45,000 miles assuming an EU grid while assuming a more realistic coal-dominated grid the breakeven point reaches about 100,000 miles by which time the EV battery would be sh0t anyway (link).

mleskovarsocalrrcom
November 6, 2023 7:54 pm

EVs are niche cars, simple as that. And within that niche they do very well. I also don’t know of any EV owners that are without an ICE car in the home.

Reply to  mleskovarsocalrrcom
November 6, 2023 8:50 pm

And within that niche they do very well.

Yep. Similar to a golf buggy. But don’t park next to one. In fact, keep the golf buggy away from the club house as well. They were OK when they used lead-acid batteries but are now just as fire prone as most EVs since moving to lithium batteries.

Reply to  mleskovarsocalrrcom
November 6, 2023 9:00 pm

It’s easy to do well in a niche of one

atticman
Reply to  mleskovarsocalrrcom
November 7, 2023 1:15 am

In the UK, years ago, that niche was delivering milk! The classic British milk-float with its huge lead-acid batteries was everywhere. Almost silent in movement, only the rattling of the bottles in their crates betrayed their presence…

atticman
Reply to  atticman
November 7, 2023 1:16 am

Oh, and a top speed of about 20 mph.

Mr.
November 6, 2023 8:11 pm

A motorized vehicle is a conveyance – a tool to use for transporting people, stock or articles from one place to another.

As with all tools, the most appropriate tool should be used to complete particular jobs.

So people should always have BEV, Hybrid EV or ICE vehicles available to them depending on their needs.

Any justifications for choosing a particular type of conveyancing tool other than basically transporting people, stock or articles from one place to another is a personal choice indulgence.

But most importantly, governments must keep their snotty noses out of peoples’ selections of conveyances.

Izaak Walton
Reply to  Mr.
November 6, 2023 8:29 pm

But most importantly, governments must keep their snotty noses out of peoples’ selections of conveyances.”

Where exactly do you want to draw the line? Should governments stop maintaining roads? Or train tracks? Should governments really not set safety standards, speed limits, alcohol limits etc? Driving a car is safe, reliable and usual enjoyable because of a whole host of government laws and regulations to ensure that I can do so. Do you really want to live somewhere with no roads, speed limits, seat belts or regulations on how much pollution a car can emit?

Mr.
Reply to  Izaak Walton
November 6, 2023 8:50 pm

Governments are supposed to be responsive to the will of the people Izaak.

People are not supposed to be responsive to the will of governments.

Geddit?

Reply to  Mr.
November 7, 2023 5:17 am

‘Governments are supposed to be responsive to the will of the people…’

The Lockean ideal, per the Declaration, is that the only valid purpose of government is to secure our inalienable rights, hence the adoption of a Constitution granting the Federal government only certain enumerated powers.

I’d argue that by asking our Federal government to ‘be responsive’ to our every need, we’re in grave danger of becoming enslaved by it.

MarkW
Reply to  Frank from NoVA
November 7, 2023 9:31 am

A government that give you anything you want, can also take everything you have.

Reply to  Izaak Walton
November 6, 2023 9:06 pm

What on earth are you talking about, Izaak?

Where did Mr even suggest governments should stop maintaining roads etc?

Where exactly do you want to draw the line?

Dictatorial edicts by governments based on flawed science.

missoulamike
Reply to  Redge
November 6, 2023 9:24 pm

That’s the typical lefty/greenie deflection by Mr. Fish. Fortunately people are starting to quit buying what he and his ilk are peddling. Trying to convince people that societal advancement is a result of gov action when in reality it is in spite of gov cronyism and rent seeking.

MarkW
Reply to  missoulamike
November 7, 2023 9:35 am

Which is the reason why socialism always devolves into totalitarianism. When people start ignoring government, then government has to assume more powers to force people to behave as the socialists want them to.

MarkW
Reply to  Redge
November 7, 2023 9:33 am

Izaak is one of those people who assumes that government is good at everything, and that there is no difference between letting government build roads and letting government decide what kind of cars will drive on those roads.

Bryan A
Reply to  Izaak Walton
November 6, 2023 10:48 pm

What it comes down to is that Government’s place isn’t in my garage nor my bank account. If/when transportation evolves away from FF and into something better, it will be because it IS something better and not simply from a Government Edict

D. J. Hawkins
Reply to  Izaak Walton
November 6, 2023 11:10 pm

Nice, a classic false equivalence argument. Or possible strawman, since the OP didn’t discuss any of those subjects. A brainless remark, in any event.

Reply to  D. J. Hawkins
November 7, 2023 12:28 am

A brainless remark, in any event.”

Izzy has proven he is capable of nothing better than brainless remarks.

DavsS
Reply to  Izaak Walton
November 7, 2023 1:27 am

Are you gunning for the award for highest number of red herrings, strawmen and/or non sequiturs in a single comment?

Reply to  Izaak Walton
November 7, 2023 2:14 am

You seemed to not understand what you quoted- “keep their snotty noses out of peoples’ selections of conveyances”. He wasn’t talking about all those other things.

Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
November 7, 2023 4:15 am

What Izaak did is called “changing the subject”.

Reply to  Tom Abbott
November 7, 2023 7:56 am

That’s what I see people doing at hearings with Sen. John Kennedy. He ropes them back in very nicely. It’s fun to watch.

George Daddis
Reply to  Izaak Walton
November 7, 2023 5:29 am

Trains were doing well (cost, time schedules, etc) before government got involved.
The comparison would be if (a big if) EVs starting displacing ICE vehicles and the government started subsidizing fossil fuel cars to keep that industry alive.

Reply to  Izaak Walton
November 7, 2023 5:59 am
  1. The original farm-to-market roads here in the US *were* privately maintained. We now pay taxes for local/state/national government entities to maintain them.
  2. Private companies maintain most freight/passenger train tracks here in the US. Local governments only maintain inner-city public transportation.

We do *NOT* pay taxes to the government to tell us how to live. When I was growing up in 50’s we had lots of county/state roads with no speed limits other than what your vehicle was capable of. No seat belts in my first two cars, they didn’t come with them from the manufacturer. Nor do government regulations mandate reliability standards for cars in the US, you want to drive a clunker that breaks down every other day the government can’t stop you!

MarkW
Reply to  Izaak Walton
November 7, 2023 9:31 am

In your ignorant opinion, deciding what kind of car people are permitted to drive is no different from setting safety standards?

What is it about socialists and their eagerness to inject government into every aspect of everyone else’s lives?

Reply to  Izaak Walton
November 7, 2023 11:33 am

Where exactly do you want to draw the line?

What about you? Are you ok with government saying “You MUST drive this type of car”?
How about “you may only use this type of toothpaste?” or “You may only eat this type of food”?

And your comparisons are ridiculous – mandating what you can drive is not even vaguely the same as maintaining infrastructure.

missoulamike
Reply to  Mr.
November 6, 2023 9:33 pm

Exactly. Utility is number one for the majority of the population that lacks the discretionary income to buy a toy/bourgeoise status symbol for getting to work and needed tasks. Many rely on older, worn but usable 2nd hand vehicles. I’ve not heard anyone in the so called “brain trust” mention how these millions are supposed to get around when any used EV at a price they can afford is going to need a new battery for 10 or 20 grand.

Old.George
Reply to  Mr.
November 7, 2023 8:35 am

But most importantly, governments must keep their snotty noses out of peoples’ selections of conveyances.”

More broadly, people’s choices should be unrestricted. There needs to be some valid reason to take away a choice. The usual justification is harm to others if such a choice is allowed.

The justification for promoting EVs is the Climate Scare.
The justification for forcing certain businesses to remain closed was the Pandemic Scare.
The justification for weapons control is Mass Shooter Fear.
The justification for the universal searches at airports is the Terrorism Fear.

Most importantly, federal government should keep their snotty noses out of free peoples’ business. Enforce the Constitution — nothing more.

John Aqua
November 6, 2023 8:25 pm

Another revelation that the benefits of the “green” revolution are overstated. Surprise!

Bob
November 6, 2023 8:43 pm

I know I should be more excited about this article but it makes me want to vomit just thinking that anyone thinks this nonsense is necessary.

Lee Riffee
November 6, 2023 8:55 pm

This isn’t at all surprising, considering that almost no one has an EV as their only ride. Replace “EV” with “motorcycle” and you get the drift…. Very likely most motorcycles are driven far less (despite their excellent fuel economy and lower “carbon footprint”) than other types of vehicles, at least in the US. Whereas, in countries like India, where the weather doesn’t really get that cold and the populace is a lot poorer, the opposite would be true.

This is of course because a motorcycle (and EVs) is a “fun” vehicle rather than a utilitarian machine to transport the rider from point A to point B. In fact, EVs and motorcycles have a lot in common. Number one, they don’t do well in cold weather (and ice and snow). OK, you wont’ get rained on in a Tesla, but you won’t have the range you have in warmer weather and you may have problems getting it moving if it gets really cold and you don’t have a garage to store it in. Number two, neither are practical vehicles that can do work (outside of simply transporting people). You can’t carry or tow much with a motorcycle, and EV trucks are a joke.

This isn’t to say that there aren’t people who will happily buy them (EVs and motorcycles) and enjoy traveling around in/on them. Both Harley Davidson and Tesla seem to have a cult-like status among their fans.

But they will always be second, third or fourth vehicles and will, for the most part, be weekend and fair weather rides. I know that around here (in central Maryland), when the weather is nice enough for motorcycle riders to be out and about in abundance, this is also the time I see a lot of Teslas. I really don’t think that’s a coincidence….

Lee Riffee
Reply to  Right-Handed Shark
November 7, 2023 6:16 am

Well, yeah – I forgot about that! They also pile 100 people (and luggage, animals, etc) into a bus meant to carry 50 people as well….

MarkW
Reply to  Lee Riffee
November 7, 2023 9:45 am

They also have a lot of people who ride on the outside of trains.

November 6, 2023 9:39 pm

Oh dear, ‘human minds’ eh.
(I’ve tickled myself so much here I don’t even know myself if I’m being serious or not)

Because, it’s as simple as a really simple thing = electric cars are fitted with (thank you to those crafty Chinee Peeple with spyware and malware everywhere) – EVs are fitted with a ‘Bad Vibe Generator

Like the malware and trojans, = “a little addition” to any one or more of the humongous silicon chips there are in there

And this device is sensitive to time, date, miles, durations of journeys and myriad other little trivialities.
Each ‘year’ (Chinese New, purchase anniversary or other) it resets itself then as the weeks roll by and the miles ramp up, it gradually increases its output of Bad Vibes – emanating from somewhere anywhere within the car.

And those Bad Vibes put the driver and occupants into A Bad Mood and they simply don’t want to be in there, driving anywhere or any-more than strictly necessary.
Could be an odour, negative ions, ozone gas, the window won’t close properly, the door starts squeaking, a few grains of itching powder in the air-con, window tinting subtly/randomly changes etc etc etc

Fortunately, it is adjustable:
Simply ‘right-crash’ the Control panel (under the steering wheel column and behind the 10,000 Volt wang-wang regulator), scroll right-to-left and look for the ‘深圳’ setting.
Enter the password ” 廣東省 “, repeat the incatation “广东省” seven times then a drop-down menu labelled ‘ SumTingWong’ will appear to fall-over

From there, adjust the Bad Vibe setting to what ever you wish. Simples.
Happy motoring…..

November 6, 2023 9:49 pm

From the article:

“While not a focus of the study, Helveston suggested a couple of factors that may be affecting how far EV owners are driving their cars, including a lack of charging infrastructure that may limit EV owners’ ability to reliably take longer-distance trips.”

This makes complete sense. If you’re in the habit of driving long distances, in areas with few recharging stations, then a BEV might not be a good choice, at this current stage of development.

However, if you use the car mostly to commute between home and workplace, and perhaps make short trips to the coast during the weekend, then buying a BEV could be a good option, especially if you can charge the BEV at night, at home, using off-peak electricity rates, and especially if one has a large solar array on the roof, including battery storage for excess power.

A BEV with a 300-400km range would be sufficient for my purposes. The only obstacle is the current high, initial price, compared with an equivalent ICE vehicle. I suspect that China will soon remove that obstacle. Don’t we all know that products made in China are much cheaper?
I’ve been wearing an impressive, water-resistant, Sports watch for a few years, made in China. It works perfectly well and cost me only A$15 at Kmart. That’s less than 10 US dollars. Fantastic! 

Reply to  Vincent
November 7, 2023 12:30 am

Feel free to buy a Chinese EV and park it in your garage.. 😉

Reply to  bnice2000
November 7, 2023 5:14 am

The percentage of BEVs that spontaneously combust is far, far less than the percentage of CO2 in the atmosphere. (wink)

Reply to  Vincent
November 7, 2023 12:38 am

And the next thing we import from China will be their form of government.. won’t that be fun!

Reply to  Right-Handed Shark
November 7, 2023 4:25 am

The radical Democrats are trying very hard to implement the Chicom system of government here in the United States.

They are very close to their goal if sensible people don’t vote the right way in the next election, or if the radical Democrats are successful at cheating, which amounts to the same thing: The Dictatorship of the Democrats and the end of our personal freedoms.

MarkW
Reply to  Tom Abbott
November 7, 2023 9:52 am

Government report indicates how worked with Stanford to censor Americans who disagreed with the DNC prior to the 2020 election.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/secret-reports-reveal-how-government-worked-censor-americans-prior-2020-election-jim-jordan-says

Reply to  MarkW
November 8, 2023 3:24 am

Just like what a communist government would do.

The Democrats are getting close to taking our freedoms away.

abolition man
Reply to  Right-Handed Shark
November 7, 2023 7:47 am

Gov. Navin Gruesome was just in China getting pointers from Chairman Xi. He will use them if his stealth campaign to replace Brandon is needed to prevent Orange Hitler! Marxism SUCKS!

Reply to  abolition man
November 7, 2023 7:45 pm

Marxism is the government owns the means of production.

Reply to  scvblwxq
November 8, 2023 3:26 am

Marxism is the government (the Dictator and his Cronies) owns everything.

Disputin
Reply to  Vincent
November 7, 2023 3:54 am

“However, if you use the car mostly to commute…”

And there’s the rub. The future is unknowable, so you never know when an emergency will require the use of your only car when it’s being recharged. With an ICE, it doesn’t take long to put fuel in. With a BEV on the other hand…

D. J. Hawkins
November 6, 2023 11:14 pm

The root question of course is what were the driving habits of EV owners before they bought an EV? Given range anxiety, it is entirely possible that the pool of EV owners tends to be populated by those who already drive fewer miles per year than average.

Rod Evans
November 6, 2023 11:36 pm

The limited miles being driven by BEV users is not surprising. The main market for BEVs is the company car fleet and the retired with wealth team.
That leaves the vast majority of the motive world i.e. the second hand car market fraternity who make up by far, the largest group of drivers.
I have not yet met anyone that has bought as their go to choice of used car purchase a second hand BEV.
My neighbour is a used car salesman. His business accurately reflects the popular choices of the period. He has so far not even had one BEV pass through his business.
When that changes I will let you know. For now, using the Steve test (that’s his name) is sufficient indication for me, that BEV is not a popular option among those who spend their own money and are looking for value for money.
The real market is made up of real people and the market will decide.

Reply to  Rod Evans
November 7, 2023 12:36 am

Not in the UK it won’t.

On Jan 1 2024, in a couple of months from now, 20% of all the new cars a manufacturer sells must be EVs. Every ICE over 80% attracts a fine of £15,000.

The percentage then rises annually until it becomes 80% EVs in 2030. When and if the Labour Party comes to power, in about a year from now, they are talking about reinstating the 2030 total ban on ICE new car sales.

Do not think the Government cannot or will not do this. They can and they will.

I suspect the reason for the lower mileage cited in the piece is that most of the EVs are second cars, or low mileage buyers. But when the bans come into effect the mileage of all current car users will have to fall also, because EVs in their current form will not support the ICE usage patterns. Its a combination of limited range, which leads to more refuelling stops, and longer refuel times – at the moment it seems to be a half hour for fast chargers, if you can find one, compared to a few minutes for ICE. Indeed, if you can find any free charging point of any sort. An EV is not a plugin replacement for an ICE car.

Basic queuing theory!

If people can’t drive as they do now, they won’t. They will adapt because they have to. Their adaptations will bring lots of changes to how people live and work and will have quite large social and economic effects. It will then also change the value proposition of owning a car. It will lead to people holding on to their old ICE cars, which will affect total sales, and eventually it will make cars what they used to be in the 1950s in the UK, a luxury item for occasional uses. I would expect the new car market from individual buyers to collapse, and for there to be a flood of ex fleet cars onto the used EV market, depressing prices and leading to large losses by the fleet operators.

At the moment in the UK roughly 60% of EV sales are to fleets because of tax incentives. The percentage should increase as the low mileage and second car market segments are saturated and fewer and fewer of the remaining buyers can use an EV in their application.

It is amazing that the country has embarked on this policy with no analysis, at least no published analysis, of the total economic and social effects.

Reply to  michel
November 7, 2023 12:48 am

Telegraph says: The reality is fewer than one in four new battery-powered electric cars are going to private buyers.

Worse than I had thought.

Dave Andrews
Reply to  michel
November 7, 2023 7:48 am

They got that figure from The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders(SMMT) update on new car registrations in October 2023 “Private registrations accounted for fewer than one in 4 new BEVs this year”

SMMT also noted that 4753 standard chargepoints came online in the quarter. Installation was disproportionately focused on London and the South East which received 4 out of 5 new chargepoints despite the region accounting for fewer than 2 in 5 new plug in registrations during the period. In comparison just 13 chargers were installed in Yorkshire and Humberside, whilst the North had 105 chargers taken out of service!

As I said in a post yesterday the North – South divide in the UK remains as prominent as ever.

Reply to  michel
November 7, 2023 1:10 am

And of course you have the higher insurance, and refusals to underwrite EVs. Cannot get away from it, no country is going to simply replace ICE cars with EVs and then carry on as before.

Rod Evans
Reply to  michel
November 7, 2023 1:30 am

The idea a government can mandate what you can buy is being explored and found to be failing…..again. The economic cost of imposed inefficiency which is what removal of market forces does, simply destroys the economy. The USSR did not fail because it lacked authority to mandate who could do what and when and where. It failed because the system of command i.e. communism was inferior to the demand option of the market, i.e. free trade.
The growth of the car use in the UK came about because it was the best least cost option. The destruction of any alternative option i.e. closure of the railways and the loss of local employment within walking distance makes car use essential.
Clearly, there is no reason why a new paradigm can’t be achieved, I simply hope for everyone’s sake it is better than the one we were or are being forced to abandon.
Time will tell.

Reply to  Rod Evans
November 7, 2023 7:06 am

Yes, I agree with almost all of this. But just because something is predictably disastrous in its effects, as Net Zero is, doesn’t mean that governments will refrain from doing it.

I think they will do it on cars, and most likely the other crazineses too, and it will, as you say ‘simply destroy the economy’. But the chances of avoiding it, when SNP, Conservatives, Plaid, Labour, Liberals, Greens are all totally committed to it? Few and none. You would have to bet at this point that the odds are some government of any persuasion is going to keep on keeping on.

Labour is very likely to form the next government. They have committed to restoring the absolute ban on ICE new car sales in 2030. Sunak only dared to relax this to making 80% of new car sales in 2030 EVs. That was a sign of how dominant the mania is, the smart thing to do was abolish the restrictions, indeed to reform the idiotic Climate Change Act. But he didn’t dare.

All the other parties will go along with the 2030 total ban. This is a House of Commons that nodded through Theresa May’s intensification of the Climate Change Act without even a vote. After having previously voted through the Act itself with only a couple of dissents, virtual unanimity. Don’t underestimate their willingness to take the country over the cliff. Is it denial? Is it simple ignorance? Is it cowardice? Who knows, but the only thing that will change their minds is when they experience the consequences and get voted out, which will happen, but not before they have brought about the disaster.

Anyone living in the UK should accept that its going to happen, and that heat pumps are going to happen too. It doesn’t matter how you vote, at this point the horse has left the stable. It will be a disaster, and it will have zero effect on the climate, but there is no sign that they are going to stop.

Reply to  michel
November 7, 2023 4:34 am

“At the moment in the UK roughly 60% of EV sales are to fleets”

So, I guess those fleets park their EV’s together in the same place in some circumstances.

I wonder what the insurance rates are for doing that? Will insurers go along with parking a bunch of EV’s in a parking garage without requiring large insurance payments?

Or is doing so such a hazard that it should be outlawed?

Trying to Play Nice
Reply to  Rod Evans
November 7, 2023 4:58 am

Where I live, the drivers of Teslas seem to be younger because it is a status symbol in some circles and they believe the EV hype. The retired with wealth group tends to drive expensive, powerful ICEVs.

ferdberple
November 7, 2023 12:20 am

The telling numbers are the plug-in hybrids. They have the same mileage as the ICE’s. The difference being you ate not tied to the electrical grid.

Reply to  ferdberple
November 7, 2023 1:11 am

Yes, a good indicator.

Dave Andrews
Reply to  ferdberple
November 7, 2023 8:06 am

According to the UK Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) registrations of Mild Hybrid EVs, Hybrid EVs and Plug in Hybrid EVs in October 2023 amounted to 62,022, BEVS were 23,943 and Diesel and Petrol 67,464.

“Private registrations accounted for fewer than 1 in 4 new BEVs this year”

heme212
November 7, 2023 1:26 am

the sheer quantity of lies involved in the green nude eel is actually frightening. No sane person would build a system based on an oil exec telling us their gasoline has 200,000 BTU per gallon. Yet this is exactly what we are doing with renewables. Think that car is zero emission? Think you’ll get anywhere near the rated 220 watts out of that solar panel? Think that inverter is really 95% efficient? Think those batteries will actually last 4000 cycles?’
This “system” will come crashing down solely under the weight of its own BS.

abolition man
Reply to  heme212
November 7, 2023 8:07 am

“the sheer quantity of lies involved in the green nude eel is actually frightening.” That is why the Nude Eelers are so hysterical and cannot allow any debate! They must get their programs implemented before the wheels come off!
Once it is a fait accompli they will say, “Oops, how were we to know?” and “Well, too late to reverse course now.” They expect that Europeans and Americans will sit back and watch while the rest of the world passes them by economically. They are completely delusional!!
Delusions and self-hypnosis are the hallmarks of the Green Nude Eelers; their emotions have the strength of twenty because their hearts are pure! I’m definitely stealing that! Green Nude Eel! Ha!

November 7, 2023 3:58 am

From the article: “The study did show that plug-in hybrid and hybrid vehicles were driven similarly to gas vehicles, however.”

That being the case, I would guess that long charging times are the reason people are not driving their EV’s as much as anticipated.

Plug-in hybrids require less time to charge than a full EV, so that must be the difference, since plug-in hybrids are driven as much as gasoline vehicles, according to this study, and of course, non-plug-in hybrids are no different from a regular gasoline-powered car, so they are driven as much as a gasoline car.

Charging times, and the hassle of doing so. appears to be the explanation.

scadsobees
November 7, 2023 6:03 am

So they’re basically glorified golf carts?
I’d love a glorified golf cart to drive every day and plug in every night, and park it next to my truck that I use for towing and the car I use for interstate trips.

But I don’t have the money to be able to afford three vehicles, so I’ll just stick with my ICE for now. And for many years to come.

November 7, 2023 7:05 am

“If federal agencies are overestimating true mileage, that results in overestimating the emissions savings.”

If? . . . you really needed to lead with the word “If” and to imply this is a real question???

Anyone who has studied the Obama and Biden administrations, the Democratic Party platforms, the “green renewables” alarmists, the EPA, and the EV lobbyists pushes for BEVs will have no doubt this was intentional from the get-go.

MarkW
November 7, 2023 9:22 am

Given the fact that EVs are being sold as the perfect car for around the town driving and for people with short commutes, I find it quite surprising that anyone is surprised that people with EVs don’t drive them much.

rhs
November 7, 2023 6:31 pm
mikeq
November 8, 2023 12:26 am

Hmmm…

Some time ago, I wanted to check Eirgrid’s demand estimate for EV’s in 2031.

So, I went to CarsIreland.ie and transcribed make, model and mileage for all 2018 used EV’s listed for sale on October 17, 2023.
There was a total of 99 EV’s (out of over 5,000 2018 cars listed), of which 53 were Nissan Leafs, 12 Hyundai Ioniqs, and 9 each BMW i3 and Renault Zoe. Over 90% of Irish EV’s are mini sized cars.
Average km was 15,345 km/yr, 9,534 miles/year. Average annual electric demand for these cars was .2.59MWh/yr

Average km/yr for all Irish cars is about 22,000 to 23,000 km/yr, about 14,000 miles/yr, about 45% higher than the average for EVs.

Eirgrid’s 2031 estimate of private EV demand is 1.975 TWh for 845,000 vehicles.
This comes to 2.34 MWh per vehicle, lower than 2018 actual.

Eirgrid’s estimate of demand per EV is therefore inaccurate and underestimated for three major reasons:

  1. It is 9.6% less than the calculated actual demand for vehicles registered in 2018.
  2. The subset of EV vehicles registered in 2018 has average km/yr significantly lower (only about 70%) than all vehicles.
  3. The EV’s registered to date are predominantly smaller EV’s with lower demand requirements. Larger EVs, such as the Jaguar i-Pace, require about 34% more W/km to run (223 vs 166)

Next step: Generate a more accurate estimate of annual future electricity demand per EV:

  1. Actual demand per EV in 2018 is calculated to be 2.585 MWh
  2. Adjusting for average mileage of all cars, (+45%), 2.585 * 1.45 = 3.75 MWh
  3. Adjust for larger average size of vehicle, say 10% (there are many more smaller than medium or large cars) 3.75 * 1.1 = 4.54

Thus Eirgrids estimate of future demand per EV needs to be almost doubled.

I wonder if forecasts of future EV power demand in other countries are any more accurate.

The problem is that in today’s political environment, genuine professional and technical competence and expertise is not valued. What is valued is exclusively input that conforms to predetermined outcomes, thus pressure to consistently low-ball estimates.

Reply to  mikeq
November 8, 2023 5:45 pm

Great info.

All that means, the CO2 of EVs during their 8- y driving years is greater than stated by woke government sources, who do not understand the subtleties you mention

That higher CO2 will increase lifetime CO2, to be greater than of equivalent, efficient gasoline vehicles, on a mine to landfill basis,

Coach Springer
November 8, 2023 5:49 am

“Researchers also suggest multi-vehicle households may be another reason behind these findings; people who own EVs often own multiple vehicles, and they may be spreading out their annual miles over each of them, resulting in lower overall mileage on the EV.”

The article is trying really hard to not get past the preference for ICE by suggesting it is the ICE’s fault and if you get rid of them, then people will use EVs. Well, thanks for that bit of obvious. I think they designed the study looking for good news for EVs which introduced bias even in the numbers they found disappointing.

Bruce Cobb
November 8, 2023 9:42 am

Then, on the other hand, EVs are great for people who want to virtue signal how they are helping to “save the planet”, and they even get a tax break for doing so. Win-win!

Reply to  Bruce Cobb
November 8, 2023 5:53 pm

The higher-income people driving these EVs for virtue-signaling, show-boating, usually have gasoline vehicles for more demanding tasks, such as hauling things, camping, having 3 or more passengers, going uphill on a cold, snowy day, going on a long trip.

Recently, a battery plane flew from New York to Florida. It took ten days!!!

Lindberg flew across the Atlantic to Paris in about 30 hours, in 1937?