Essay by Eric Worrall
Some sad news after all the good news from Australia and New Zealand.
Centrist Parties Poised to Oust Poland’s Nationalist Government
The election, seen as one of the most significant in decades, was cast as a choice between the defense of Polish sovereignty and liberal values.
By Andrew Higgins
Reporting from Warsaw
Oct. 15, 2023 Updated 7:10 p.m. ETCentrist and progressive forces appeared capable of forming a new government in Poland after securing more seats in a critical general election on Sunday, despite the governing nationalist party, Law and Justice, winning the most votes for a single party.
Exit polls showing a strong second place finish by the main opposition group, Civic Coalition, and better than expected results for two smaller centrist and progressive parties suggested a dramatic upset that would frustrate the governing party’s hope of an unprecedented third consecutive term.
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Piotr Buras, the head of the Warsaw office of the European Council on Foreign Relations, declared the election “a triumph of both democracy and liberalism” that “opens the way for a massive reorientation of Poland’s domestic and European policy.”
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Read more: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/15/world/europe/poland-election.html
Poland’s Law and Justice party has been a major thorn in the side of European environmental zealotry, amongst other things they have consistently used their influence inside the EU to defend Poland’s sizeable coal generation and heavy industrial manufacturing heartland.
Poland’s Law and Justice Party also notably stopped supplying weapons to Ukraine in September, after Ukraine undermined the livelihoods of Polish farmers, by dumping subsidised grain on the European market.
While it is possible Law and Justice may cling on – their defeat is not quite a done deal – most pundits seem to be calling that Law and Justice opponents have the numbers to form a new government.
The new coalition government might well continue protecting Polish coal, ie not cede all sovereignty to Brussels.
Ukraine is opening up alternative routes to get its grain, steel and other products to world markets. Driving the Russian Black Sea Fleet out of Sevastopol helped, as did destroying Crimean air defenses and bases, electronic warfare complexes, command and control centers , and damaging dry docks and logistics hubs.
Unsurprising really, the Russian Navy is a relic of the 1970’s and 80’s – it’s hardly a modern navy and unsuited to modern warfare.
Czar Putrid Putin the Great disagrees – sez his Great Fleet ready to defeat the Japanese this time…..in a special military operation.
Well, he better do it soon because Japan is going to double its military budget.
Not really that much. The previous 1% was more of a political number and spending that in other countries would be for defence werent counted in Japan
Now they will be . Not that Japanese spending is very transparent anyway
It has newer smaller surface combatants, and its Kilo subs are up to date, one of which Ukraine put out of commission in dry dock, with an amphibious ship.
Yeah that’s why Putin wants the Crimea – the other Russian shipyards are unsuitable for year round large ship construction. There used to be 4 Kirov class ships, there’s now just one and the others have been cannibalised to keep it going. If Putin wants a modern navy with ships bigger than a destroyer or frigate he’s going to need the Crimean shipyards. Deny him those and he won’t hold Crimea.
Yes they are . St Petersburg and the White sea shipyards have no problem building all year . They have the icebreakers to keep the ship channels open
The major Black Sea shipyard for largest soviet naval ships was at Mykolaiv Ukraine not Crimea
Severodvinsk (White Sea), Admiralteyskiye Verfi (St. Petersburg) shipyards and the Baltic shipyards only build submarines and small combatants. The largest shipyards were at Mykolaiv, you’re right – not sure what’s left or what equipment/facilities the Russians were able to steal before being driven out but it will need to be rebuilt.
driven out by a nation with no navy to speak of
Big, modern navies are unsuited to modern warfare. Aircraft carriers are big targets that must be surrounded by tenders and a fleet especially dedicated to protecting them. They’re only useful in intimidating third world countries with armies moved by Toyota pick ups, at least when they’re not in dry dock undergoing billion dollar re-fits.
The one big job left is to trash the Kerch bridge. A job for ATACMs.
And the Ghost of Kek’v helped too! I mean, come on. “Mother of All Proxy Armies” is gone. Weapons not accompanied by “advisors” end up on black market. The new Current Thing started because the old one is mostly over, and it’s obvious even for neocons.
The war in Ukraine is not mostly over, as recent events show. Russian offensives in Kharkiv and Donetsk were meant achieve strategic breakthroughs, but have failed even to straighten tactical lines. Fixed and rotary wing Russian aviation has been clipped in Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia by ATACMs.
Iran hoped to capitalize on Western ammo shortages in order to torpedo peace between Israel and the Gulf States. Atrocities by its puppet Hamas have delayed the peace process but not derailed it.
Now air bases in Zaporizhzhia and Luhansk as well, thanks to ATACM missiles.
The EU has been trying almost everything to get rid of Poland’s Law and Justice party for years now; sanctions, court judgements and other underhand methods have so far failed. Although there were some issues I disagreed with, their policies seemed sensible and level-headed as a contrast to the EU’s increasingly stupid and fantastical policies.
No doubt it’s all lefty effort on Hungary now
I think Slovakia just turned reasonable.
And let’s watch Germany with hope. Germany is in recession and has a grim industrial future if dependent on wind and solar (bought from China). The German people may wake up to the self-destructive nature of the Greens.
How long does it usually take for the Germans to.wake up to the self-destructive nature of the ruling party? 12+ years? Let’s hope it’s quicker this time.
I think they had some outside help last time.
The Green Party won 15% of the votes in the most recent general election in Germany (2021). The latest opinion poll puts them on 13%. Not much change there.
However, the SPD is down 9 points to 17% and the FPD are down 6 points to 6%. Thus the three coalition parties between them are on only 38%. That would be too little to form a majority government.
On the other hand the CDU/CSU are up 9 points on 28%. But who could they join to form a majority? The AfD are on 23% which might be enough but a coalition between the CDU/CSU and the AfD is probably unlikely. A coalition between the CDU/CSU and the FPD would not have a majority.
The only way the CDU/CSU could be part of a majority government would be in a coalition with the SPD and the FPD.
However, the next federal election in Germany is not due for another two years. A lot could happen between now and then.
That should be 36%, not 38%.
Division instead of unity seems to be the politics everywhere in the free world and beyond now. Right in tune with the Marxist ideology of divide and conquer. AGW is another cog in that plan. It’s not only ‘who counts the votes’ that matters but also who controls the media.
I’m quite sure Uncle Joe will help defend you every bit as much as in Afghanistan.
If ever one needed a demonstration of the power of the need to feel virtuous, the sight of people freely voting for their own demise provides it.
Quite the opposite.
The Law and Justice party has been going soft on Russia. They started moving away from backing Ukraine.
The Polish people know what will come next if Ukraine is successfully gobbled up. They had that for half a century from the 1940s.
What’s the weather like in Poland? I suspect like America’s northern prairie? Or even Canadian? So, they’re probably not worried about over heating. I doubt they’ll be happy spending billions of dollars to go green. Maybe this election wasn’t about the climate thing- lots of other issues they’re facing.
I’m hoping the Reform UK party makes huge in roads in the UK general election, maybe a few MPs – from acorns and all that
The UK has been decimated since Bliars ruinous years and the faux Conservatives (not even small c) have continued the lefty rot, with the 3 main parties perpetually trying to out lefty each other with ever more idiotic policies
There is no proper right wing Party to vote for, it’s a mess and a bad time for democracy in general
The climate cabal and nut zero religion are deeply ingrained in both the left wing Labour and the socialist Tory parties and devolved Governments in Scotland, Wales & N Ireland are even more dystopian & dire – all globalist puppets selling out national interests to rich, powerful elitist masters
Stuck between a rock and an hard place, UK voters are trapped in a pincer movement – no one is enacting policies on behalf of the silent majority, whilst the shouty, hysterical, eternally offended left and extreme left wing minorities enjoy endless financial and legal support for themselves and their activist agendas, often at the expense and in defiance of the majority
Reform UK are a pretty diverse lot. Everyone paints them as right wing, but that is only true south of Watford Gap. I would still vote for them if I was there, any change is better than the status quo.
Damn shame Nigel disbanded UKIP, there’s so much more work to be done…
Farage didn’t disband UKIP, he just abandoned it. It’s still going with Neil Hamilton as its current leader.
The problems facing western democracies cannot be fixed by yet another party. The problem is the very concept of political parties. P. parties make for control and influence by narrow interest groups ranging from donors and media to populist eco-loons and vote buying crooks.
Independent representatives cannot all be bought and are less likely to be someone else’s puppet. In the first instance they have to pass a higher bar than simply being a parties nominee for which the main qualification is obedience to the party.
If you put rubbish in you get rubbish out. Its that simple.
Tusk was Mr anti-Brexit
He is everything Brussels wants
Meanwhile, the rest of the EU is ready to double down on their commitments – https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/eu-wrangles-over-negotiating-stance-cop28-climate-summit-2023-10-16/
Piotr Buras, the head of the Warsaw office of the European Council on Foreign Relations, declared the election “a triumph of both democracy and liberalism” that “opens the way for a massive reorientation of Poland’s domestic and European policy.”
Does thart mean that the parties which are likely to form the next Polish government are in favour of taking in all of the immigrants the EU wants to foist on them, and close down Polish coal mines? And remove restrictions on abortion? And give the LGBTXYZ lobby everything it demands? Have the Poles really voted for that?
It probably just shows that people get tired of a government, of whatever persuasion, after a few years and vote in the other lot, whatever they will do. The same thing is about to happen in the UK. The polls suggest we are heading for a Labour government. How many people actually support Labour’s policies is another matter. How many people even know Labour’s policies?
Don’t worry this much.
Look at Poland’s stance on the next-to-last Current Thing: yesterday Bornholm blow up, today «screw you, your proxy war and your bums», tomorrow… who ever knows?
Their traditional state of affairs seems to be: lots of squabbling factions, and factions within factions, all the way down. Most of which are torn between opportunism, old feuds and opposing some rival faction just for the hell of it. One could try to predict fortunes of any large coalition going up and down, and where exactly it will stand. One could just as well try to predict where exactly weathervane on top of a thin pole to which an excitable dog is tied will point in a turbulent wind.
It’s too chaotic. No point to hope, no point to dread.