Expected unserved energy, ESOO Central scenario, 2023-24 to 2032-33. Source AEMO, Permitted use. Annotations "Your grid reliability is stuffed zone" and "Enhanced risk of blackouts" added by Eric Worrall. Unserved energy (USE) represents energy that cannot be supplied to consumers when demand exceeds supply under certain circumstances, resulting in involuntary load shedding (loss of customer supply) in the absence of out of market intervention, such as the Reliability and Emergency Reserve Trader (RERT)12 or other voluntary curtailment.

After “The Voice”: Aussie PM Vows to Refocus on Renewable Energy

Following the resounding defeat of a constitutional plebescite to introduce racial segregation into the Aussie constitution, Australia’s Prime Minister has vowed to focus on green energy.

Voice to climate

Can you hear me?

Judith Sloan
14 October 2023 9:00 AM

The Prime Minister has flagged that, post the Voice referendum, his government will turn its full attention to the decarbonisation of the economy and the prospect of Australia becoming an renewable energy superpower.

By contrast, most of us are living in the real world, wondering how we can cover the mortgage and the bills, getting the kids to school on time and thinking about what’s for dinner. Prosaic stuff to be sure, but beautiful thoughts about identity politics and climate change are generally back of mind, if at all.

But what the surveys also reveal is that, notwithstanding people’s concerns about climate change – economists call this elicitation bias or wanting to sound worthy – when it comes to bearing any additional financial burden to act on climate change, there is a marked reluctance to pay any significant price at all. The recent 20-per-cent rise in electricity prices, for instance, is well above the rate of increase that people are happy to pay for the sake of doing something about the climate.

Read more: https://www.spectator.com.au/2023/10/voice-to-climate/

Australia’s green revolution appears to have stalled. Back in June WUWT reported there were no new financial commitments for the previous quarter, across all of Australia. Coal plant operators are racing for the exit door, fleeing a jurisdiction where they are no longer welcome, but nobody is building enough dispatchable energy to replace the lost coal capacity.

Worse, the energy market is in turmoil. Albanese Government’s response to a supply crunch driven energy spike in 2022 was to introduce politically expedient price controls – which hasn’t exactly settled market jitters about the profitability of investing in Australia’s energy market.

As Australia heads into an El Niño Summer which promises scorching temperatures, with an East Coast grid which the AEMO admits is heading towards serious shortfalls, it seems only a matter of time until Australia’s East Coast experiences severe and prolonged blackouts.

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October 15, 2023 2:22 pm

Tasmania looks good – small population and lots of hydro.

Eric – do you know why Queensland almost gets back to normal in 2031-32? (Perhaps most of the people will have left?)

Eng_Ian
Reply to  Smart Rock
October 15, 2023 2:36 pm

I think the drop is a direct consequence of the phrase “……and then a miracle happens”

Crisp
Reply to  Eric Worrall
October 15, 2023 11:26 pm

The Qld Govt is proposing a pumped storage dam at Eungella, near Mackay. This will intrude onto a national park with high conservation values. No EIA’s were ever carried out. The government has compulsorily acquired all the land they require, taking out much productive and valuable agricultural land. How much they spent is a State secret.
A friend living on one of the farms told me that they have only now started carrying out the requisite geotechnical investigations, so they don’t even know if the dam can even be built!
It wouldn’t surprise me if it can’t. The Qld Govt has form in this area. 15 years ago they spent $500M on a dam that will never be built because of subsequent environmental and geotechnical issues.

Reply to  Crisp
October 16, 2023 3:12 am

“How much they spent is a State secret.” How do they justify it as a State secret?

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
October 16, 2023 4:22 am

commercial in confidence is the usual stunt they use

CampsieFellow
Reply to  Crisp
October 16, 2023 3:24 am

Is the dam to be made from concrete? That’s a substance that we are supposed to do without. Bamboo and other materials are now the preferred choice for buildings, etc.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Smart Rock
October 16, 2023 4:20 am

ah yes but…Tassie also ran short of hydro water last el nino so its not all beer n skittles, the proposed 2nd cable to mainlands looking like a no go dud too

Tom Halla
October 15, 2023 2:25 pm

Well, rolling blackouts helped do in Gray Davis, and led to his recall. One can only hope.

KevinM
Reply to  Tom Halla
October 15, 2023 6:40 pm

Did California change in general?

Tom Halla
Reply to  KevinM
October 15, 2023 6:55 pm

Arnold Schwarzenegger got rolled by the Democrats, he being married to a Kennedy. It only delayed their folly for maybe one election cycle.

Reply to  KevinM
October 16, 2023 4:32 am

“Did California change in general?”

Yes, California has gotten a *lot* worse since Gray Davis was governor. It looks like those who can afford to move are leaving California. Thirty percent of the businesses in San Francisco have shut down their operations and moved elsewhere.

Gasoline is over $6 per gallon.

Newsom is crippling the trucking industry with their efforts to reduce CO2.

They don’t lock up criminals in California.

And on and on.

Radical Democrat rule in California is a disaster in slow motion. And it’s that way in all the other Democrat-controlled States, too.

Reply to  Tom Abbott
October 16, 2023 12:33 pm

The Republicans are in just as bad shape with fraudsters commanding all their attention. They should be opposing the Democrats on the phony ‘Climate Change’ wasting of money, instead, they are silent.

Reply to  Tom Halla
October 15, 2023 10:07 pm

My take home message from the link was this:

‘We are not a racist country’: Jacinta Nampijinpa Price speaks out after Voice defeat
I wish this lady could run for office here where I live (Oakland, California). The only racism here is what the libtard democrats can manufacture. If they didn’t have stuff that doesn’t exist, they’d have nothing.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  philincalifornia
October 16, 2023 4:28 am

anyone who has lived near the family and extended mates of indigenous families may beg to differ. friends in NT have to barricade homes/ yards and even then get robbed too often. they cant sell because no one else is stupid enough to buy into that town anymore.mates son delivers to remote communities hes the good guy travelling thousands of Km round trips for 3 days to bring food water medical etc, so while hes checking the rear of 3 containers…lil darlings (all under 12) smashed the windscreen stole his wallet phone and everything else not bolted down, now they have to provide a police escort into town and supervise the unloading, and leaving.

old cocky
Reply to  ozspeaksup
October 16, 2023 1:21 pm

That cycle of parental neglect and crime does seem to be a problem, but it’s not confined to a single racial group.
The difficult problem is breaking that cycle, rather than talking about forming a committee to discuss ways to consider talking about forming a committee to…

Reply to  old cocky
October 16, 2023 5:03 pm

It’s a terrible problem, especially for societies that felt that they had it under control. I’m clueless about how to solve this so I’ll keep my mouth shut on this topic ozspeaksup.

Reply to  ozspeaksup
October 16, 2023 4:58 pm

I don’t doubt your post at all. I was referring to the place where I live.

Len Werner
October 15, 2023 2:30 pm

Would it be too much to ask to have a referendum on this government initiative like the recent inequality one? It seems you can do that in Australia.

gezza1298
Reply to  Len Werner
October 16, 2023 3:52 am

Yes, it would as referendums are only hold in the expectation of getting the correct answer. Australians, like us in the UK, have given the wrong answer so can’t be trusted with another one.

October 15, 2023 2:41 pm

The PM is a moron who governs with sentimentality rather than judiciously. The referendum vote showed this to him unequivocally. What does he do?…continue to govern with sentimentality.
Climate ”scientists” are destroying the West and enabled by people like Albo.

Mr.
Reply to  Mike
October 15, 2023 4:56 pm

Ideological infection is usually a lifetime condition.

PM Albansleese declared many years ago that his sole mission in life was “fighting Tories”.

Clearly, he didn’t even realise what country he lives in.
There are no “Tories” in Australia.

The established Australian Labor Party (ALP) process when electoral wipeout is undeniably imminent is to pass the “leadership” to an ambitious female understudy so that she/they can take the unavoidable pizzling from the voters at the next election.

Reply to  Mr.
October 15, 2023 5:20 pm

Yes I would not be surprized if he follows the Andrews/Ardern guidebook.

another ian
Reply to  Mike
October 15, 2023 5:49 pm

The PM is a moron who governs with sentimentality rather than judiciously”

Shouldn’t that be “differential semtimentality”?

leefor
Reply to  Mike
October 15, 2023 8:25 pm

According to Tom Uren – “Instead, Uren described him as “an activist in Young Labor and one of the main organisers of the Left in NSW”. 
In other words, Albo was a factional operator. 
Uren even said that “when I first put him (Albo) on my staff some of my comrades on the Left said, ‘Oh, you’re putting a young Trot on your staff’”.

https://www.advanceaustralia.org.au/each_way_albo_caught_out_again

And they expect Albo to return to his hard left roots once he is no longer PM.

eo
October 15, 2023 3:02 pm

Australia should have another referendum to enshrine climate change in its constitution. Then the rich/poor electorate divide will show up again. The rich has more options to meet their energy needs without any pain in the same way they have more guilt towards their exploitation of the aborigines not to mention the convicts and poor migrants.

KevinM
Reply to  eo
October 15, 2023 6:46 pm

Campaign for a tax to achieve something good then hire an accountant to avoid paying the tax?

ozspeaksup
Reply to  eo
October 16, 2023 4:44 am

guess youre NOT an Aussie?
it wasnt about rich/poor at all
its about 2.7% claiming aboriginality many of whom are far removed in reality but…claiming gets you a LOT of advantages for child care other govt assists and priority in a queue.
ie I mentioned a long wait as Cat 1 urgent for surgery
My mates a Snr nurse and asked why I hadnt marked the form as being of Torrens strait/aboriginal descent as I would have got to the top of the list.
thats exactly how its done by many , and maybe a few had a great granny in the ancestors but its truly odd how a poofteenth of a races dna magically gives them “feelz” of belonging and the right to claim, while they happily ignore the entire white/other ethnicity they carry to a higher degree.
the majority of Aussies are well and truly over the whingeing about how hard done by they are. they get more remote rural health care than the whites who live in the same areas do.
more subsidised housing is made available, than for poor white people ditto their own schools and all the rest.
theres mention of some 38billion spent but NO accounting for it.
more are in jail per capita? yes because they DO commit more crimes starting at 7 and up break n enter theft and assaults. the parents cant or wont keep the kids HOME at night so they roam, then whitey cops blame because we didnt do enough? to prevent it?
really?
they choose to live in the bush “traditionally” but then demand all mod cons be provided?
NO
and that, is why the majority voted NO!

Walter Sobchak
October 15, 2023 3:26 pm

“I think that this situation absolutely requires a really futile and stupid gesture be done on somebody’s part!”

Animal House

Reply to  Walter Sobchak
October 15, 2023 4:45 pm

Echoes Beyond the Fringe in about 1961:

Peter Cook: I want you to lay down your life, Perkins. We need a futile gesture at this stage. It will raise the whole tone of the war. Get up in a crate, Perkins, pop over to Bremen, take a shufti, don’t come back. Goodbye, Perkins. God, I wish I was going too.

Mr.
Reply to  Walter Sobchak
October 15, 2023 5:51 pm

Monty Python nailed the “gesture motion” in Life Of Brian.

Reg: Right. Now, uh, item four: attainment of world supremacy within the next five years. Uh, Francis, you’ve been doing some work on this.

Francis: Yeah. Thank you, Reg. Well, quite frankly, siblings, I think five years is optimistic, unless we can smash the Roman empire within the next twelve months.

Reg: Twelve months?

Francis: Yeah, twelve months. And, let’s face it. As empires go, this is the big one, so we’ve got to get up off our arses and stop just talking about it!

ScienceABC123
October 15, 2023 3:28 pm

Synopsis: Aussie Government: “Renewable energy hasn’t worked, so we’re going to continue trying to get it to work until it does, or we all end up with no electricity. Whichever comes first…”

October 15, 2023 3:59 pm

I imagine if there are blackouts there will be an attempt to spin it as being due to high power demand because of climate change. It will be used to push renewables even harder. Hopefully common sense will prevail and a rational energy policy can be developed, but I’m not holding my breath.

gezza1298
Reply to  Jonny5
October 16, 2023 3:56 am

Amazing how they think more of something that can’t work 24/7 will make it work 24/7. UK politicians are just as stupid.

John Kelly
October 15, 2023 4:19 pm

I’m still waiting for my $250 electricity rebate (or whatever it was) that Albo and his grinning idiot Energy Minister promised at the last election.

Reply to  John Kelly
October 15, 2023 4:41 pm

That was an election promise. You should know they are not worth the air used to make such statements.

Reply to  John Kelly
October 15, 2023 4:46 pm

But then your bill will go up by $500…

KevinM
Reply to  John Kelly
October 15, 2023 6:50 pm

I think American tax prep services call that an “early refund”, i.e. a loan against future revenue.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  John Kelly
October 16, 2023 4:52 am

did you register?
you did have to go to the webpage and see if cheaper supplier was available.
in Vic we got 250 into banks then albos upped it to 500 fed BUT the second part therof is going direct TO the powercos (seemingly in 3mth installments) and you should see credit on your bill.
so guessing they got it in one lump sum and will have earnt interest for 3 mths before they handed it on, many millions per state profit to powercos

October 15, 2023 4:42 pm

Simply Blackout Bowen and Albo are trying very hard to push all those curves to the left.
Nuclear power if off the table as its dangerous and classed not green by the ALP, Greens and Teals.
The LNP are trying to push the nuclear concept and the population see it as sensible but the hard left/green hate it so nothing will happen.

I am looking at a back up generator at present. 
To run a house these generators seem to be, oh shock, oh horror diesel, natural gas or LPG, nothing green here. Any generators over 15KVA are 3 phase. That means rewiring the house, main switch board and changing the feed in wiring. Not easy as many houses have only a single phase feed.

Looks like I will have to also replace the solar panels soon as they are about 20 years old and the local red dust detreats the surface fast. 

No referendum on climate change or energy as there are too many sheeple who believe the rubbish. They will want to go harder with renewables and we all suffer their stupidity.

Reply to  nhasys
October 15, 2023 4:43 pm

Should be:
red dust degrades the surface fast

Reply to  nhasys
October 15, 2023 5:25 pm

I kinda like ”detreats” 😀

another ian
Reply to  nhasys
October 15, 2023 6:00 pm

You’ve done well to get 20 years. Local reports of “good red dust” killing solar pump panels in 10 years.

Fran
Reply to  nhasys
October 15, 2023 5:49 pm

Does this mean you expect blackouts that last for days/weeks? We deal with weather related blackouts several times a year lasting up to 2 days with a small generator to keep freezers frozen and a few lights. Stove is propane and supplemental heat is propane.

another ian
Reply to  nhasys
October 15, 2023 5:57 pm

You must have a pretty good “Man Cave” if you need more that 15 KVA?

And I would have thought you shouldn’t need rewiring downstream of the existing switchboard?

Chris Hanley
Reply to  nhasys
October 15, 2023 6:03 pm

there are too many sheeple who believe the rubbish

Maybe not, as the recent referendum on aboriginal constitutional recognition shows ordinary voters are far more willing to express their genuine thoughts in the privacy of a voting booth.

Bob
October 15, 2023 5:40 pm

The sooner the better, there is no point in delaying the inevitable. The Australian people need to tell their leaders to take a hike and not just at the ballot box.

another ian
October 15, 2023 5:47 pm

What a useful graph if you are a seller of gen sets!

Mr.
Reply to  Eric Worrall
October 15, 2023 8:06 pm

I used to have a 6kva “silent” genny.

Had to locate it about 25 metres from the hose though, in order to tolerate its :silent” operation.

No doubt many more of these “silent” Chinese-made gennies will soon be on the Aussie market.

Reply to  Mr.
October 16, 2023 4:54 am

I never have understood why they don’t offer a good muffler for those small generators.

Reply to  Tom Abbott
October 16, 2023 11:50 am

Probably only so much you can do to reduce the noise.

ResourceGuy
October 15, 2023 6:25 pm

Yes, move to a safer idiot policy topic.

mikelowe2013
October 15, 2023 9:07 pm

Equally useless!

October 15, 2023 9:39 pm

Australia is determined to do with solar what Germany has accomplished with wind: Economic destruction.

Crisp
October 15, 2023 11:44 pm

Most of us Aussies are rapt that this vile Voice proposal was crushed.
It would have created a perpetually divided unequal society based on institutionalized racism. Citizens would be unequal before the law based purely on race.
It would have been anti-democratic, unaccountable, and irremovable.
It would have totally changed the federal system of government in Australia and made the machinery of government even more grindingly slow than it already is.

The voting has exposed a huge divide in Australia, with the inner capital cities (and the ACT – equivalent of Washington DC) and their chardonnay sipping, white-privileged, Woke socialists/greenies/Teals voting Yes and the rest of the country strongly voting No.
The exploding-head reactions have been a delight to watch on TV. You may have to watch where you walk in these cities; you might slip on one of the many spittle-covered dummies littering the footpath.

Reply to  Crisp
October 16, 2023 4:58 am

Australia’s voters voted to save themselves, so maybe there is hope for the rest of us. Maybe our voters will vote to save themselves from the radical, destructive Left, too.

ozspeaksup
October 16, 2023 4:19 am

well no ones ever said albos smart, and he proves it daily.
hes utterly tone deaf to the electorates actual views
weve had some nuff nuffs but hes looking like the winner KRudd and juLIAR and tantrums turnbull all contenders

and for those that might have been wondering?
I had neurosurgery for the 3 largest aneurysms, one long stent got all of them on the 5th, after a long wait
so far so good, no loss of finemotor skills or anything else
I have lost the headaches and BP dropped, funny that!
the blood thinners are a bit hellish though;-)
so it appears I will be around to annoy the warmists a while longer

observa
October 16, 2023 5:55 am

The usual suspects would have you believe indigenous folk are all victims and have no voice. However there are over 3500 various aboriginal bodies and Land Councils and here’s the Coalition of Peaks with ‘Meet our Members’ for a sample of where $35billion gets spread around-
Coalition of Peaks
But the classic is the NIAA and note what 1300 employees proudly boast-
National Indigenous Australians Agency (niaa.gov.au)

The National Indigenous Australians Agency (NIAA) vision is to ensure Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples are heard, recognised and empowered.
We recognise each First Nations community is unique. We work in partnership with community to make sure policies, programs and services meet their unique needs.
We work to support the Minister for Indigenous Australians.

Apparently that lot were all drawing their salaries under false pretenses and they really needed Albo’s heartfelt Voice imbedded in the Constitution to ‘Close the Gap’ for a portion of aboriginals largely in remote outback regions. Over 3 out of 5 Australians smelled a rat with Mr Sneaky and Co but that could be misplaced cynicism with such a flow of emotion for the one true Voice the passionate ones knew in their hearts was the answer.

In which case Albo and Co could easily legislate their one true Voice and demonstrate how wrong and misguidedthe majority are. So are they going to legislate their Voice for that? Not on your nellie they’re not because that would mean measurable quantifiable outcomes and you know how it is with lefties.

old cocky
Reply to  observa
October 16, 2023 1:34 pm

The National Indigenous Australians Agency (NIAA) vision is to ensure Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples are heard, recognised and empowered.

We recognise each First Nations community is unique. We work in partnership with community to make sure policies, programs and services meet their unique needs.

We work to support the Minister for Indigenous Australians.

That’s quite a noble vision statement. If NIAA and the Minister and Cabinet follow through with it, it may actually help.

The usual government department approach to consultation is:
“This is what we plan to do.
What do you think?
La la la I can’t hear you.
Well, that’s all settled then.”

William Howard
October 16, 2023 7:48 am

might want to check with Jacinda first

October 16, 2023 8:37 am

Hopefully his efforts on “green” energy will be just as successful.