Australia Average sea and air surface temperature change. Source: Australian Government Intergenerational Report 2023, Creative Commons License

Aussie Government Intergenerational Report 2023: We’ll All Live Longer and Be Richer in the Age of Climate Crisis

Essay by Eric Worrall

… But EV owners have a nasty surprise coming.

Intergenerational Report 2023

Australia’s future to 2063

This publication is available for your use under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia licence, with the exception of the Commonwealth Coat of Arms, images, signatures and where otherwise stated. The full licence terms are available from http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/au/legalcode.

[Page 3] The real economy is projected to be around two and a half times larger than today, and real incomes around 50 per cent higher, by 2062–63. However, like other countries, Australia’s economic growth is projected to be slower than in the past 40 years. This is being driven by lower projected population growth and reduced participation as the population ages, along with an assumption of slower long-run productivity growth. The economy is projected to grow by an average of 2.2 per cent per year in real terms over the next 40 years compared to 3.1 per cent over the past 40 years.

[Page 6] Population ageing

Australians are living longer, with more years in full health and more time using government-funded services. Over the next 40 years, life expectancy at birth is projected to continue to increase, from 81.3 years for men and 85.2 years for women in 2022–23, to 87.0 years for men and 89.5 years for women by 2062–63.A range of societal, cultural and economic factors have led to women delaying having children and having fewer children than previous generations. Australia’s total fertility rate, in line with most advanced economies, fell significantly during the second half of the twentieth century. It has been below the replacement rate of 2.1 babies per woman since the 1970s, and is expected to remain low in coming decades.2Australia’s population is ageing as a result of longer life expectancies and low fertility rates. The median age is expected to increase by 4.6 years between 2022–23 and 2062–63, to reach 43.1 years. In the same period, the number of people aged 65 and older will more than double. The number aged 85 and older will more than triple. Chapter 2 provides more information about the impacts of population ageing on Australia’s economy and fiscal position.

[Page 19] Box 1.5 Climate change and the labour market

The structural shifts required to decarbonise will promote the expansion of some industries, while the physical impacts of a warming climate will affect working conditions and labour supply for certain occupations.

The net zero transformation is expected to create job opportunities in some occupations and industries. According to the former National Skills Commission, almost half of industry groups are already involved in a green value chain.lxiv Renewable energy employment in Australia increased 120 per cent between 2009–10 and 2018–19, with rooftop solar PV systems comprising nearly half of 2018–19 employment.lxv

Well-designed emissions reduction and adaptation measures can support growth areas and smooth the transition of workers from emissions intensive industries. Advertised green jobs such as those in wind energy have higher remuneration compared to non-green jobs in the same occupation and location. The diffusion of innovation that is expected to accompany the deployment of new abatement technology has further potential to increase productivity and create growth over the long term.

The physical impacts of climate change present a different set of potential consequences for the labour market. Certain occupations and regions will face greater risk of heat stress and, therefore, reduced labour productivity because of rising temperatures (Chapter 5). In the absence of changes to the way people now work, this will affect hours worked and the ability of employers to recruit workers.lxvi These pressures are expected to persist over the next 40 years as national and global temperatures continue to rise. Well-targeted investment in adaptation measures will help reduce this risk to Australia’s labour markets.

[Page 99]

The direct impacts of higher temperatures on how we work are just one of the channels through which climate change will impact labour productivity, but one which could be significant. If global temperatures were to increase by up to 3°C or over 4°C, without adaptive changes to current ways of working, Australia’s aggregate labour productivity levels could decrease by 0.2 to 0.8 per cent by 2063.31

This is a significant economic cost, reducing economic output over this period by between $135 billion and $423 billion in today’s dollars, through the direct impacts of higher temperatures on labour productivity. If global action limits temperature increases to 2°C, Australia could benefit from up to an additional $155 billion in GDP in today’s dollars, relative to a scenario where temperatures increase up to 3°C. This is equivalent to 26 to 41 million more hours of work in 2063, underscoring the value of timely action to reduce emissions. Investing in targeted adaptation measures to limit worker heat exposure, such as strategic planting of trees or altering building designs to enhance passive cooling, can also mitigate the labour productivity impacts of higher temperatures to some degree.xv

[Page 108] Energy sector transformation will strengthen Australia’s competitive advantages

Increasing global temperatures will disrupt economic activities, requiring significant adaptation in order to mitigate potential impacts on productivity and economic growth. However, Australia’s natural competitive advantages mean it is also positioned to benefit from important aspects of the global net zero transformation.

[Page 201] Box 8.2 Electric vehicle uptake and fuel excise receipts

The net zero transformation is expected to result in a shift from internal combustion engine vehicles to electric vehicles over the coming decades. The transition to electric vehicles will have many benefits – lower emissions, improved air quality, and lower running costs for drivers. However, there will also be a fiscal impact from a loss of fuel excise receipts unless there is a change of policy.

Decreasing fuel excise collections over the rest of the century represents a challenge and an opportunity for policymakers around the globe. Jurisdictions are investigating alternatives to charging a fuel excise to stabilise public revenue and maintain road infrastructure. For example, in the United States, Oregon and Utah are trialling opt-in, pay-per-mile road user charge systems, which provide reduced registration fees.

[Page 258] Global climate scenarios

The future in relation to climate change is highly uncertain. The extent of future climate change, and the risks and opportunities emerging from it, will be affected by many unpredictable factors. These include global economic growth, population growth, urbanisation, consumption preferences, technology change and the extent of global policy cooperation. Global climate scenarios, which incorporate explicit assumptions about these factors, are a core input for modelling and analysis of how countries, sectors and regions may be impacted by climate change and the net-zero transformation.

Read more: https://treasury.gov.au/sites/default/files/2023-08/p2023-435150.pdf

The most fascinating aspect of the report is the minimal projected impact of climate change. Given that worst case climate harm projection of $423 billion is a pin prick in the context of expected economic growth, by the government’s own numbers, why is climate change still being treated as a significant issue? The report itself makes it clear that by their own numbers, the people of 2063 will all be richer and live longer than today.

If heat stress were ever to become a significant issue, the adaptive technologies of 2063 will vastly exceed our current adaptive capabilities. People working in extreme environments can already buy cool suits which contain ice blocks or electric cooling devices. Cattle and crops could be genetically engineered to improve their heat endurance. Product improvement and biotech will take care of any level of inconvenience global warming could deliver.

Despite the speculative hype about “highly uncertain” climate impacts, this report has to be considered yet another analysis which consigns global warming to its proper place in the scheme of things – at worst a minor inconvenience.


For more information on climate economics click here.

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Tom Halla
August 24, 2023 6:10 pm

Going off Jennifer Marohasy’s reporting, the BoM temperature graph is creative use of a cut-off-graph, as Australia was warmer before 1910.

bnice2000
Reply to  Tom Halla
August 24, 2023 6:32 pm

You mean like this.

Australia historic temperatures.jpg
B Zipperer
Reply to  bnice2000
August 24, 2023 9:19 pm

bnice:
I get nervous looking at a graph splicing tropospheric temps [“by eye”]
to surface temps.
Refrains of “Use Mike’s trick … to hide the decline” come to mind.

bnice2000
Reply to  B Zipperer
August 24, 2023 10:01 pm

Splicing BoM’ “adjusted/homogenised/distorted” urban data would be the other alternative. 😉

Tom Abbott
Reply to  B Zipperer
August 25, 2023 5:29 am

No splicing here, it’s all raw data. It shows it was just as warm in Australia in the Early Twentieth Century as it is today, and shows that the chart at the top of the article is a Big Lie, which distorts the real temperature profile.

CO2 has not managed to get things any hotter since the Early Twentieth Century. Which means CO2 is a minor player in the Earth’s atmosphere, since there is much more CO2 in the atmosphere today than there was then, yet it is no warmer today than it was then.

CO2 = Much Ado About Nothing

comment image?resize=640%2C542

bnice2000
Reply to  Tom Halla
August 24, 2023 6:34 pm

And UAH Australia from 1998 – 2018

Australia 20 years.png
KevinM
Reply to  bnice2000
August 24, 2023 8:46 pm

I wish more people understood what bnice2000’s graph shows.

bnice2000
Reply to  Tom Halla
August 24, 2023 6:38 pm

And Australia UAH since the 2015 El Nino

Australia UAH since 2015-16 El nino.png
Simon
Reply to  bnice2000
August 24, 2023 11:31 pm

Show it after the next El Nino and then it will mean something. Till then you are just cherry picking.

bnice2000
Reply to  Simon
August 24, 2023 11:37 pm

That is since the last El Nino, twerp !

Simon
Reply to  bnice2000
August 25, 2023 12:54 am

But it doesn’t include the next one … twerp!!!!!! Thats why I used the word “after.” Apples need to be compared to apples. You are so easily exposed. Next?

bnice2000
Reply to  Simon
August 25, 2023 2:28 am

OMG…. the simpleton thinks I can graph from the next El Nino..

Seems to think I am going to FABRICATE it like the AGW scammers do.

Every other slight peak has been followed by COOLING… Get over it. !

Or are you now saying that El Ninos cause warming ? 😉

Are you now saying that human CO2 causes El Ninos ?

That would be hilarious !

Stop exposing yourself… and your abject ignorance.

No-one wants to see you and your simple-mindedness.

ATheoK
Reply to  bnice2000
August 25, 2023 5:45 am

OMG…. the simpleton thinks I can graph from the next El Nino..”

That’s because alarmists prefer delusional or fantastical future results rather than drab boring real temperatures.

In alarmist lala land, scary predictions are the only kind of predictions.

Original long term individual station temperatures show cooling when graphed over time, except in urban areas with airport temperature stations.

  • The Arctic ice has not disappeared.
  • Attention by alarmists to Antarctica has been nil until Antarctica appears to have a slight temporary sea ice decline.
  • No Troposphere hot spot.
  • Fires are less than those documented in historical terms.
  • Oceanic sea levels are annually crawling higher by single mm digits.
  • Storms have neither increased nor become more powerful.
  • Climate model predictions have been completely delusional.
Jim Gorman
Reply to  bnice2000
August 27, 2023 5:17 am

bnice2000

Let me make a slight adjustment to your comment. Lower values of ΔT don’t exactly mean cooling or warming. They are just excursions from a baseline. A lower value after an El Nino just means that temps are just not as far from the baseline.

The real problem is identifying what is truly happening, Tmax or Tmin increasing.

bnice2000
Reply to  Simon
August 24, 2023 11:40 pm

Look at the graph two above, and the graph further down, simple one.

Australia COOLS after a spike. There is no underlying trend.

bnice2000
Reply to  Simon
August 25, 2023 12:27 am

Bom data is PROVEN to be based on unfit for purpose urban surface sites, homogenised to give a total unrealistic temperature fabrication.

FAIL !!!

ATheoK
Reply to  Simon
August 25, 2023 5:48 am

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate

Alarmist controlled wiki?!
🤣 😂 🤣 😂 🤣 😂 🤣 😂 🤣 😂
What a 🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡!

bnice2000
Reply to  Simon
August 25, 2023 12:27 am

CSIRO is a far-left bureaucratic non-science organisation.

It uses BoM data

Bom data is PROVEN to be based on unfit for purpose urban surface sites, homogenised to give a total unrealistic temperature fabrication.

FAIL !!!

bnice2000
Reply to  Simon
August 25, 2023 12:30 am

Also not the “disappearing” of “unfortunate” data before 1910

BoM is all about FAKERY, which only the most gullible ignoramus now fall for.

bnice2000
Reply to  bnice2000
August 25, 2023 12:31 am

first line…. not => note

Simon
Reply to  bnice2000
August 25, 2023 12:51 am

Yawn, so you play the fake news bullshit line. How shockingly surprising (another yawn) and may I add Trumpian of you. Such an easy way to ignore the evidence and justify your nonsense.

bnice2000
Reply to  Simon
August 25, 2023 2:19 am

You are still displaying for deviant ignorance, slimon

Still in DENIAL that the BoM fabrications are massively tainted and totally unfit for any sort of scientific purpose.

Still DENYING urban warming exists?

Still DENYING the fake homogenisation scam adds spurious warming.

At least you have now admitted that El Ninos cause warming, and NOT CO2.

Simon
Reply to  bnice2000
August 25, 2023 1:07 pm

At least you have now admitted that El Ninos cause warming, and NOT CO2.”
Um… no…. that was you and only you. And I’m still laughing.

bnice2000
Reply to  Simon
August 25, 2023 1:30 pm

Then why keep on harping about El Ninos causing warming.

Why did you say I should graph “from after the next El Nino” ?

Is something going to happen at that El Nino?

You really are making a total goose of yourself.

bnice2000
Reply to  Simon
August 26, 2023 4:34 am

Um… yes….”

You have now admitted it several times in a row.

Why else are you waiting for the next El Nino, if you don’t believe it will cause warming.?

Come on, stop avoiding the issue with petty attempts at distractions.

What was your reason for typing the words…

Show it after the next El Nino “..

Explain what you meant… if you can even figure that out.

karlomonte
Reply to  Simon
August 25, 2023 7:50 am

MAGA!

Simon
Reply to  karlomonte
August 25, 2023 1:05 pm

Got his mugshot teeshirt on order. I’ll send you a photo….

bnice2000
Reply to  Simon
August 25, 2023 1:58 pm

You are DERANGED. !

bnice2000
Reply to  Simon
August 25, 2023 2:14 pm

Even someone with such a near fatal case of TDS, must know these are all “trumped-iup” democrat political ploys.

They , and you, are SO, SO SCARED of him, because they know he will drain the swamp when he gets back in, and given what the democrats have done, a lot of them are headed for jail sentences.

The panic behind these fake lawsuits is palpable.

And Trump just keeps on keeping-on as the preferred Republican candidate.

Try not to cower and whimper too much when it happens, little worm.

Simon
Reply to  bnice2000
August 25, 2023 4:12 pm

Even someone with such a near fatal case of TDS, must know these are all “trumped-iup” democrat political ploys.”
Except there is sooo much concrete evidence against Trump. Tapes, witnesses, emails…. Only a true denier could deny that he is in real peril.

They , and you, are SO, SO SCARED of him, because they know he will drain the swamp “
Idiot. He is the swamp. And yes of course I am scared of what a morally corrupt man like him can do. It’s why I want him in jail.

“The panic behind these fake lawsuits is palpable.”
I know, let’s let a jury decide shall we? It is how the law works.

“And Trump just keeps on keeping-on as the preferred Republican candidate.”
Yep he is credible to the gullible. I saw a quote the other day that said “in 20 years, no one is going to admit they voted for Trump.” So true.

karlomonte
Reply to  Simon
August 25, 2023 6:15 pm

TDS Simon: “He told people to drink bleach!”

Simon
Reply to  karlomonte
August 25, 2023 10:13 pm

TDS Simon: “He told people to drink bleach!””
I think you find that was the Mango Mussolini.

karlomonte
Reply to  Simon
August 26, 2023 2:13 am

Exposed, like any good little marxist, all he can do is lie, and paper over old lies with new lies.

bnice2000
Reply to  Simon
August 25, 2023 8:26 pm

It is how the law works.”

Yet you have already convicted him, on very flimsy evidence.

You will find that all this crap is Democrat rancid mouthing is nothing but a vain attempt to denigrate and keep him from office.

The Democrat fear is palpable… the derangement syndrome is deep and soul-destroying,

… or would be if Democrats had souls.

karlomonte
Reply to  bnice2000
August 26, 2023 2:17 am

That the marxo-democrats are going to such illegal and unconstitutional lengths is strong evidence they are guilty.

TDS Simon does not care for the rule of law or equal justice.

He’s so stupid that he’s never learned the lessons of the French, Russian, Chinese, Cuban, revolutions. He wants a repeat.

karlomonte
Reply to  Simon
August 25, 2023 6:14 pm

Did you orgasm?

Simon
Reply to  karlomonte
August 25, 2023 6:17 pm

That’s a bit personal…. but ….maybe.

karlomonte
Reply to  Simon
August 26, 2023 2:11 am

You are no doubt one of the slimiest creatures I’ve even had the misfortune of encountering.

Simon
Reply to  karlomonte
August 26, 2023 1:38 pm

You are no doubt one of the slimiest creatures I’ve even had the misfortune of encountering.”
Oh…. you say the nicest things. Charmer…..

bnice2000
Reply to  Simon
August 26, 2023 2:26 pm

Yes, we know you have no counter to that fact.

You are certainly the most moronic, as well !

Ian_e
Reply to  Simon
August 25, 2023 1:28 am

Not for nothing, then, the old nursery rhyme about Simple Simon!

Simon
Reply to  Ian_e
August 25, 2023 1:04 pm

Not for nothing, then, the old nursery rhyme about Simple Simon!”
Thats so cute that think using an old nursery rhyme as a putdown is on any level clever.

bnice2000
Reply to  Simon
August 25, 2023 2:05 pm

No nursery rhyme needed.

You are, for sure, one of the stupidest people on the planet !

aussiecol
Reply to  Simon
August 25, 2023 4:12 pm

OK genius, spare everyone all the guessing and tell us how strong the next El Nino will be then???

Simon
Reply to  aussiecol
August 25, 2023 6:18 pm

That was not my point. Try reading what I wrote again.

aussiecol
Reply to  Simon
August 25, 2023 7:37 pm

”Show it after the next El Nino and then it will mean something”

Well it is the point. Your words, not mine…

bnice2000
Reply to  aussiecol
August 25, 2023 8:57 pm

You have to remember, aussiecol, that Simon really doesn’t have clue what he is talking about, ever. !

Simon
Reply to  aussiecol
August 25, 2023 10:11 pm

My point is our friend bnice2000 was being dishonest showing a graph that has not finished it’s El Nino warming cycle but he still has his negative trend line. Let’s wait till after the cycle is finished before drawing any conclusions. Simple really.

bnice2000
Reply to  Simon
August 25, 2023 11:00 pm

You really are a moron, aren’t you. ZERO COMPREHENSION !

Every other short spike is followed by a long cooling trend.

Sorry you are so darn STUPID that you cannot see this.

And sorry that you are so darn STUPID that you think I can graph things that haven’t happened yet.

And why do you think the El Nino is important….?

…. are you saying it will cause warming ?

El Nino warming cycle”

You are now ADMITTING that El Ninos cause warming, as I have said all along..

Not CO2… El Ninos

Thank you.

Now crawl back under your rock.

Simon
Reply to  bnice2000
August 26, 2023 12:23 am

Ohh you are a prickly bunny today. Did I touch a nerve?

bnice2000
Reply to  Simon
August 26, 2023 12:35 am

Poor Simon, clueless as always.

But at least now he knows that El Ninos cause warming.

In fact, the ONLY warming in the satellite data.

A big step forward for such a little mind.

karlomonte
Reply to  Simon
August 26, 2023 2:09 am

TDS Simon is a marxist (from the marxist paradise of New Zealand) who:

Cheers when lawyers are indicted with felony crimes for writing legal briefs or just appearing in court,

Cares nothing for the protections afforded to citizens by the U.S. Constitution.

Believes political rivals need to be imprisoned.

Convicts people without evidence if they don’t agree with his hardcore leftist politics, and give them a pass on real crimes if they do agree.

Take your marxist totalitarian one-party slavery and put it where the sun don’t shine.

Simon
Reply to  karlomonte
August 26, 2023 2:22 am

from the marxist paradise of New Zealand”
You got the paradise bit right. One of only three countries in the world whose life expectancy went up during covid… because we had a leader who had the guts to make the big calls. Tell me again how did the Mango Mussolini do? That’s right he told everyone to take BLEAH. How did that work out soldier?

bnice2000
Reply to  Simon
August 26, 2023 3:55 am

Yep, how IS covid working out for you in NZ, ?

I hope you have your Nth jab done, ready for the next one ;-).

14th Aug 2023 Covid-19 update: 5372, 20 further deaths and 171 in hospital | RNZ News

21st Aug 2023 Covid-19 update: 3953 new cases, a further 12 deaths | RNZ News

Simon
Reply to  bnice2000
August 26, 2023 2:04 pm

NZ covid deaths per million 960. USA, 3500.
Work it out Einstien. The US’s complete failure because they were led by an idiot intent on nothing more than getting re-elected resulted in nearly 4 times more deaths per million than NZ. Gosh I wonder who did better?

bnice2000
Reply to  Simon
August 26, 2023 2:29 pm

NZ, an isolated insignificant country…

Work it out, dolt !

Yes we all know Trump should never have listened to that far-left rat’sarse Fauci.

Simon
Reply to  bnice2000
August 26, 2023 6:17 pm

The problem was he didn’t listen Fauci he listened to his (ever expanding) “gut feeling.” If he had listened to Fauci there is no doubt he would have won the election and 100’s of thousands of Americans who died of covid would be alive now. Such a f**ck up of a leader. Worst president in the last 100 years and comes in at 41st on the Cspan list. Man child….
https://www.c-span.org/presidentsurvey2021/?page=overall

old cocky
Reply to  Simon
August 26, 2023 3:13 pm

NZ covid deaths per million 960. USA, 3500.

As a matter of interest, where did those figures come from?

The wikipedia article (yeah, yeah, I know) quotes 626 for NZ and 3,331 for the USA.

New Zealand did a bit worse than Japan, similar to South Korea and better than Australia, all of which took similar approaches.

The USA figures are similar to many European countries, and slightly better than the UK.

The entire Balkan Peninsula seems to have fared particularly badly.

Simon
Reply to  old cocky
August 26, 2023 6:18 pm
old cocky
Reply to  Simon
August 26, 2023 8:08 pm

Thanks.

It’s funny how things change over time. NZ did better than Aus in the wikipedia article, but worse in the worldometers article.

Simon
Reply to  old cocky
August 26, 2023 10:21 pm

I guess that is true. But both did their best to limit the spread and for the most part were pretty successful.

old cocky
Reply to  Simon
August 27, 2023 12:34 am

Was there much difference between the North and South Islands? Western Australia applied very strict border controls with the other states, and apparently didn’t have major internal restrictions.

The UK sort of kind of half heartedly tried to limit the spread as well, but came out about the same as the US.
Trying to keep partisan politics at bay, the US seemed to have a lack of coordination between the states, but I don’t think the UK had the same degree of having to herd cats.

I have no idea why the figures are so high for the Balkan peninsula. A lot of over-60s like northern Italy?

Simon
Reply to  old cocky
August 27, 2023 2:34 am

No the country is small so both Islands played by the same rules.

old cocky
Reply to  Simon
August 27, 2023 3:18 am

That was badly worded on my part. I was thinking of the case & death stats for each.

Simon
Reply to  old cocky
August 27, 2023 2:37 am

Trying to keep partisan politics at bay, the US seemed to have a lack of coordination”
They sure did. It is a fractured country. Each state makes its own rules… to their detriment.

old cocky
Reply to  Simon
August 27, 2023 3:17 am

We only have 6 states, and despite the regular meetings they started to squabble and do things their own ways.

bnice2000
Reply to  Simon
August 26, 2023 4:04 am

NZ, a piss-ant little country miles from anywhere,

Run, at the time, by a rabid semi-female Marxist dictator.

Just where someone like Simon belongs and feels at home.

old cocky
Reply to  bnice2000
August 26, 2023 1:52 pm

NZ, a piss-ant little country miles from anywhere,

A lot of people think the same about Oz 🙁

karlomonte
Reply to  Simon
August 26, 2023 8:34 am

TDS Simon: “Trump told people to drink bleach!”

old cocky
Reply to  Simon
August 26, 2023 3:17 pm

One of only three countries in the world whose life expectancy went up during covid

It seems there were 4, but the study only covered 27.

Australia isn’t on the list, but also increased life expectancy during at least 2020.

aussiecol
Reply to  Simon
August 26, 2023 1:23 am

”Simple really.”… as Simon says. lol

bnice2000
Reply to  Simon
August 26, 2023 2:01 am

was being dishonest showing a graph “

How is showing a graph of data completely up to the present day, dishonest. What an incredibly stupid comment.

(we expect nothing other than incredibly stupid from the simple one.)

Dishonest would be what the simpleton wants, and creating data that doesn’t exist.

Simply DISHONEST in every post he makes.

At least now he has admitted for all to see, that El Ninos cause warming…

… and has also ADMITTED, (by been totally unable to show any evidence), that there is NO evidence of warming by human CO2, whatsoever.

Jim Gorman
Reply to  Simon
August 27, 2023 5:12 am

You don’t even understand what you are looking at. These ARE NOT temperatures. These are ΔT, the change in temperature from the baseline. You want to make a graph of temperature, then do so. We can see just exactly how much the baseline is changing. It will be less than you can sense yourself. It will be much less than the daily or seasonal change in most of the highly populated globe.

Anomalies are also affected by which temperture of Tmax/Tmin is increasing most. Do you know which is changing the most, daytime temps or nighttime temps? Anomalies won’t tell you!

bnice2000
Reply to  Tom Halla
August 24, 2023 6:41 pm

Furthermore, if you go to Ken’s Kingdom, you will find heaps of BoM “adjustments”

… and also the fact that a large proportion of sites are totally unfit for the purpose of comparing temperatures over time, with large amounts of urban encroachments, new buildings, air conditioners etc etc all adding spurious non-climate warming.

Martin Brumby
August 24, 2023 6:32 pm

Your tax dollars at work right there, Aussies!

The geniuses who produce these predictions should be told to produce a forecast for the year they will retire. Any more than 10% incorrect?
Sorry, no pension.

Might concentrate some minds.

bnice2000
August 24, 2023 6:43 pm

I would love to see how and where BoM were measuring sea surface temperatures from 1910-1950 😉

Pat Frank
Reply to  bnice2000
August 24, 2023 10:43 pm

Recovered merchant bucket and ship-engine cooling-water-intake thermometer measurements, mostly. I recently published on all that.

bnice2000
Reply to  Pat Frank
August 25, 2023 8:59 pm

Other part is “where” it was measured..

How much of the ocean around Australia was covered?

Australia has a vast coastline.!

bnice2000
August 24, 2023 6:52 pm

Interesting pattern I’ve noticed in UAH Australia.

Jumps followed by cooling trends.

Lines are only hand drawn, but unless you close your eyes completely, you should be able to see the pattern.

Would be interesting to try to figure out the “why” of this pattern.

Aust UAH with cooling sections.png
bobclose
Reply to  bnice2000
August 25, 2023 2:54 am

Obviously, the El Nino effect is producing rapid warming for several years then slow decline back to the underlying weak warming or slow cooling trend since 2000. Now that the solar maxima is well behind us, the minima is now approaching, so we should expect more cooling over the next decade.
However, whatever happens there will be no alarming, dangerous trends to worry about, unless they are engineered by the incompetent authorities mismanaging surface temperatures like NOAA, BoM and using data-biased computer models to predict completely unreliable climate trends.

bnice2000
Reply to  bobclose
August 25, 2023 3:02 am

“El Nino effect is producing rapid warming for several years” 

??

The “rapid warming” jumps are only for a month or two or three…..

I doubt this August will be near as high as the July spike value.

old cocky
August 24, 2023 6:54 pm

This is interesting:

If global action limits temperature increases to 2°C, Australia could benefit from up to an additional $155 billion in GDP in today’s dollars, relative to a scenario where temperatures increase up to 3°C. 

It seems to tie in with earlier analyses (Lindzen?) and Nordhaus’s initial DICE model.

KevinM
Reply to  old cocky
August 24, 2023 8:50 pm

Bridge for sale.

old cocky
Reply to  KevinM
August 24, 2023 9:07 pm

No, thanks. We already have one.

davidmhoffer
August 24, 2023 7:09 pm

0.2 to 0.8% loss of productivity! That’s without adaptation! This is the end of the world? Less than 1%?

RickWill
August 24, 2023 7:19 pm

If heat stress were ever to become a significant issue, the adaptive technologies of 2063 will vastly exceed our current adaptive capabilities. 

This can be taken as embracing the notion that rising temperatures will be oppressive.. They won’t.

The dramatic rises are already evident – Greenland plateau in January trending up at 9C/century. From a base around MINUS 30C five decades back. The ice is gaining elevation due to the warmer winters. It will never get above 0C in January because it will remain an ice block.

The Mediterranean will warm a bit more in summer before monsoons become established and starts to flood the Sahara again to further green the Sahara. Some of the surface nudged the limit of 30C this summer but was not sustained long enough for convective instability to establish. Once the biomass is thriving in the Sahara, Europe will have more moderate summers despite peak summer sunlight continuing to rise.

Australia is not far off cooling on average. The Southern Hemisphere is cooling from south to north, following the reduction in peak solar. South Pole is already centuries past its peak solar at summer solstice. There is no warming trend over the globe south of 45S.

Looking at the atmospheric moisture over the northwestern Pacific right now gives a hint of where the climate is headed- 62mm above 45N near northern Japan. Think what that is going to do when it drops out over land in October and November.

Screen Shot 2023-08-25 at 12.09.19 pm.png
KevinM
Reply to  RickWill
August 24, 2023 8:56 pm

In AGW models, does Michigan’s economy beat Texas’s economy? I suppose one could respond with New York vs New Mexico… so – other factors must be much more important.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  RickWill
August 25, 2023 5:49 am

“There is no warming trend over the globe south of 45S.”

Do climate alarmists have an answer for why it is not warming in the southern hemisphere? I thought CO2 was a well-mixed gas. How can CO2 be warming the northern hemisphere, but not warming the southern hemisphere?

There seems to be a discrepancy in the CO2-caused global warming narrative.

RickWill
August 24, 2023 7:28 pm

The CSIRO have a lot to answer for with regard their claims that their climate modelling is useful. It is not. It has already caused tremendous waste in resources.

KevinM
August 24, 2023 8:43 pm

The structural shifts required to decarbonise will promote the expansion of some industries, while the physical impacts of a warming climate will affect working conditions and labour supply for certain occupations.

the physical impacts of a warming climate will affect working conditions and labour supply for certain occupations.

warming climate will affect working conditions

Every change has losers AND winners. Why was the author so scared to admit some might benefit? They just could not write the words some (Canadians! USA Upper midwest! Russians! Swedes!!) would benefit from AGW.

bnice2000
Reply to  KevinM
August 24, 2023 9:09 pm

And since the Tropics would barely warm at all (oceans cannot climb much above 30C)…

… basically any warming would be beneficial to nearly ALL the world’s populations

bnice2000
Reply to  KevinM
August 24, 2023 9:13 pm

warming climate will affect working conditions“”

If you are working inside, the outside temperature is irrelevant so long as you have reliable electricity.

It is a real pain to be working outside in cold conditions.

In warmer conditions, you just wear a wide brim hat and drink plenty of liquids.

Ben Vorlich
Reply to  KevinM
August 25, 2023 1:36 am

Svante Arrhenius thought that the Global Warming he predicted would be a net benefit to Sweden and presumably other countries at similar latitudes

bnice2000
Reply to  Ben Vorlich
August 25, 2023 2:22 am

Arrhenius lived in a cooler time. He knew that cold was not conducive to human life.

The slight warming since then has been nothing but beneficial to basically every living organism on the planet.

Bob
August 24, 2023 9:23 pm

They need to build more fossil fuel and nuclear generators to insure there is sufficient electricity to run air conditioners. They also need to forget about EVs because they can’t support air conditioners let alone get you where you need to go. These guys need help, they are talking like lunatics.

Redge
August 24, 2023 9:25 pm

We’ll All Live Longer and Be Richer in the Age of Climate Crisis

I think that is the “Royal We

HB
August 24, 2023 9:28 pm

From putting the pieces together Australia is planning to spend 5 trillion by 2050 to save accumulated losses of about 423 billion (worst case) by 2063
We plan to spend about 10 times the projected losses ,many years be fore the losses are these people nuts
Knowing the nature of this spending (renewables) it will need replacing every 20 years
Just keep burning gas and coal and develop a nuclear program

Chris Hanley
August 24, 2023 9:37 pm

The net zero transformation is expected to create job opportunities in some occupations and industries … Well-designed emissions reduction and adaptation measures can support growth areas and smooth the transition of workers from emissions intensive industries

Not if emission reduction means the counterproductive blowing up efficient electricity generation and replace it with inefficient generation.
The annual GDP growth has been in long-term decline for over forty years, is now about 2.3% (Trading Economics) and under the current ‘nut zero’ policies is very likely to accelerate downwards.

Hans Erren
August 24, 2023 9:46 pm

The Dutch government announced that the road tax exemption of electric vehicles will be lifted in two years, and that they are also going to pay road tax based on the weight of the vehicle.

Ouch….

Redge
August 24, 2023 9:46 pm

Appendix 5:

The extent of future climate change, and the risks and opportunities emerging from it, will be affected by many unpredictable factors. 

But we can still predict the future, honest mate, believe us.”

The IPCC have identified the following plausible combinations of SSP and RCP scenarios:

• SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.0 represent high and very high greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios in which CO2 emissions roughly double current levels by 2100 and 2050, respectively 

And yet no mention the IPCC themselves state that RCP8.5 is implausible.

Neither do they explicitly state which scenario they have based their headline fairy tales on.

I think we all know the reason why.

ozspeaksup
August 25, 2023 4:32 am

going by the last forecasts they did ?
just another load of crap modelling thats way out of reality
last thing we need is more immigrants when we cant house feed and educate or treat medically the pop we have now in spite of high taxes and all the other income theft govts managed so far
I sure dont want to live any longer than my youngest hound needs me around
well and truly over the damned lot of it

observa
August 25, 2023 9:24 am
sherro01
August 25, 2023 2:17 pm

Here is a consolidated view of UAH satellite temperatures over Australia, using the latest available data and version 6.0 that might differ from some other graphs shown here.
I copy the method of Viscount Monckton, working back timewise from the present to the earliest date (here May 2012) after which there is a cooling trend, not warming, using a linear least squares line fit of the monthly data.
Geoff S
https:// http://www.geoffstuff.com/uahaug2023.jpg

sherro01
August 25, 2023 2:25 pm

As an Australian scientist who has studied climate change since 1992, I was tempted to spring into print to rebut some of the report, using the quotes provided
However, a thorough job requires study of the whole report, so another sad weekend ahead.
It is sad because of the negative tone if the chosen extracts are typical of the whole report. Why be sad and concentrate on future jobs adversely affected by hotter weather on hot days, while not being happy concentrating on the benefits of hotter weather on cold days ahead? Geoff S

Retired_Engineer_Jim
August 25, 2023 9:44 pm

Oh Eric, genetic engineering? That’s as bad as nuclear power. How dare you?

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