By P Gosselin
Alarmists have claimed lately that global warming has hit Antarctica, finally. But that hasn’t been the case at all at the Japanese Showa station.
Today we present a a temperature chart of the Japanese Antarctic Showa station, located on the East Ongul Island in Queen Maud Land, Antarctica.
The temperature trend at Syowa, also called Showa, has been modestly downward since 1973:
Chart by: Kirye. Data source:: JMA.
There’s been no warming. Right now it’s winter in Antarctica and temperatures there are way below freezing. Recent claims that the ice is melting there are absurd.
For more on Antarctic issues go to our EverythingClimate.com page
So basically July winter average temperature can vary by 13 degrees but don’t go down and hang out there without plenty of fossil fuels or you’re gunna die. Right got it.
“Recent claims that the ice is melting there are absurd.”
No-one has claimed that ice is melting at Syowa. People have noted that formation of sea ice has been slow in recent months. That is a matter of photographic observation, and is in no way contradicted by a trend at Syowa.
“…temperatures there are well below freezing.” How cold was it? It was so cold the squirrels in Central Park were warming their nuts with a hairdryer. The only redeeming value of David Letterman were his squirrel comments.
The data in the graph closely matches NASA / GISS data for Syowa for July, also the GISS annual data eyeballing it shows no apparent warming for forty years. Warmest year since 1957 was 1989.
If only the eunuchs claiming Antarctica is warming had the balls to tell the truth…..
I’m only surprised that Mr.Stokes doesn’t point out that the “miraculous recovery” of the Amazon Basin’s trees in the last six months since that naughty “far-right” Jair Bolsonaro was replaced by Jail Bird Lula da Silva is a demonstration that Antarctica (just like the Amazon) can only be saved by electing more Communists!
That’s what his photographs and data prove!
Nothing at all seems to be going on in Antarctica.
Continuous, gap-free data from Syowa starts in February of 1966. Just looking at July is special pleading.
The trend since Feb ’66 looks like this:
The p-value is 0.233, not statistically significant.
However, that doesn’t account for autocorrelation. When adjusted for that, the trend looks like this:
There is no statistically significant trend in the Syowa temperature.
w.
How much snow/ice is on the ground compared to 40 years ago – I see a lot of bare (low albedo) rock in that photo
Did the ice melt? Did it evaporate?. How has the annual total and seasonal pattern changed.
Did it simply never even fall out of the sky?
How has the size if the station changed in that time. I see quite some monstrosity there, it cannot always have been.
From what I’m learning of the giant freezer cold store, 3 miles away from my thermometer, that unless you are at least 5 miles away from a large man-made ‘temperaure controlled object’ – any thermometer inside that radius will be reading junk.
Is that the case here, at Ice Station Snowy?
We’re told that the sea-ice has changed.
Question arising: How has the colour of the water changed. Is it clearer or muddier than it was before?
Is it muddier or more turbid because of soil erosion elsewhere on the planet.
Such is why sea-level is rising after all.
i.e. Torrents of mud and dust storms coming off farmland
Plus ash, smoke and more dust from wildfires: whether deliberate, criminal, accidental, natural or preventative
Simple Archimedes Principle.
Is there more or less algae/slime/seaweed or other aquatic mush floating in there than previously?
IOW Has the albedo of the water changed since ‘the start of industrial times‘
What about the albedo of ice & snow ‘on the ground’ because of soot/smoke and ‘pollution’ coming from ‘Oop North’
That pollution will melt the ice but also feed the ocean – vast amounts of it were/are = Oxides of Nitrogen and Sulphur.
To include finely divided Iron – plus Calcium and Magnesium from cement manufacture plus the myriad trace elements released from the shale in that cement as that cement erodes and wears
All = truly epic fertilisers.
There are a Million Plus One Reasons why what is happening (not happening) there and ‘The Dancing Angels‘ & ‘Phlogiston‘ are none of them.
But no matter, Dancing Angels mean we can all pile into a cheap, common and drunken brawl
Today’s random wonderation:
What **is** the difference between ‘starvation‘ and ‘malnourishment‘
A few days ago on the UHI thread someone asked about truly rural site’s trends
The only UK site that the MO has data for and is pretty rural is Eskdalenuir in the Scottish Borders. I downloaded the data, some of which goes back to 2914.
I’ve done a bit of tinkering in Excel, not a Willis examination by any means, and so far only January and June.
As far as I can tell TMax in January shows no trend, nor did June until this year, although even that only just beat a year in the 1920s. Without looking at every month, which I might do if time permits, the only measure showing a warming trend is TMin.
The coldest decades appear to be the 1950s and 1960s. That seems right to me from my life experience. My mother always said it was warmer before the War than after Eskdalenuir seems to agree with her!
I could well be wrong, Stokesy can use the data to prove it if he likes. I’d be interested if he does.
So I’m totally confused. Back home in San Francisco we’re being told the earth is in crisis! We’re all gonna die and then this stubborn Antarctic thing comes along and rains on the parade. What is it? Is the Climate Crisis Planet Earth burning up or is it not?
Hmmm . . . from the graph in the above article, it seems like there was a tie for record-breaking warming in the years 1990 and 2006.
Funny thing is, I don’t remember such claims making MSM headlines back then. But perhaps the alarmist were looking the other way.
how to check a skeptic claim. red flags
here is what i have found to be universally true.
sceptics ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS take a large dataset. Like worldwide historical records and select a small fraction to show.
they never show you this process of subsetting. or how the anser changes with every data cut.
cut number 1. from a record going back to 1957, they start at 1973. why.
cut number 2. from 12 months of the year they pick one. why. show all 12, show annual, show seasons.
cut number 3 from a globe they select antarctica
a. it has a negative greenhouse effect.
cut number 4. they select a coastal station rather than interior? why?
but we know the why, the sweetest cherries get picked.
proof? they dont show the process. they dont show the uncertainty in the selection methodology
full of tricks zone.
‘Recent claims that the ice is melting there are absurd.’
Of course the claim is absurd – actually, the ice is boiling!
OK, I’m calling triple cherry-picking on this post.
First, it’s cherry-picking to use just one month’s trends to claim that the station has been slightly cooling, when overall using all months it has been slightly warming.
Second, it’s cherry-picking to start the graph in 1973 when continuous data goes back to 1966 … especially when it’s been warming since ’66 and cooling since ’73
Third, it’s cherry-picking to claim cooling without pointing out that the “cooling” is far, far from significant. The p-value of the post-73 trend is a whopping 0.70.
Here’s the evidence:
The red/black line is post ’73, the orange/black line is the full dataset.
w.
Remember how July 2023 was the hottest month in the history of history? Well, someone forgot to tell my utility company which informed me that July 2023 was one degree COOLER than July 2022.
Hmmm.