Steve Milloy
The claim that July 3-4, 2023 were the hottest days in the past 125,000 years is based on satellite data and computer modeling by the University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer. But there seems to be a problem with the Climate Reanalyzer.
The chart (above) is a screenshot from this morning. I highlighted the August 20, 2022 date because of what I tweeted below on that date.
My August 20, 2022 tweet from the Climate Reanalayzer shows that average global temperature anomaly on that date was -0.1°C.
But the screenshot from today, says the anomaly was 0.25°C — a 0.35°C difference. What happened? Is the Climate Reanalyzer reanalyzing temperatures to fit the narrative?
Tony Heller and others have spotlighted how data is being manipulated to advance the climate hoax.
Is that what the University of Maine is doing? Any explanation?
Read more about Global Temperatures and data shenanigans at EveryThingClimate.com
NASA’s GISTEMP routinely adjusts their Land Ocean Temperature Index which over time lowers temperatures back to 1900 and increases temperatures recorded since 1970.
I’m on an IPad in the woods, otherwise I’d post the links and an Excel graph to illustrate the point.
C’mon man, get out of the woods. 🙂
Ah, it’s good being in the woods. I worked there for 50 years.
I imagine you saw more bears there than Popes.
Were the bears Catholic? I suspect the Pope isn’t.
Or get off the iPad!
I had no idea that Apple products could not do links or MS applications. Glad I never bought any 🙂
The computers running MacOS do. I used MS Office to produce all three ebooks. The iPad’s running iOS don’t.
https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/microsoft-365/mobile/microsoft-365-mobile-apps-for-ios
More at the link.
Is “the woods” the name of a tavern?
Sounds like a great tavern name!
I like “The Liquid Learning Centre”
We used to have a neighborhood bar called “The Office”
remind me of one I saw in northern Vermont once, “The Gnaw and Chug”
Yea, but the all-time great bar sign, from NW Montana, was “Liquor in the Front and Poker in the Rear”.
Stockman’s in Missoula downtown (among more than a few in these parts).
No, but the “Dead Dog Pub” is just down the street.
Invites the obvious question: can you see the forest for the trees?
Where does the wood end and bush begin?
Careful you don’t step in what the bears did in the woods.
This is one of yours with “changes” from 2005 to 2015
It is easy to see the 1940 “blip” gets got rid of.
and where a lot of the faked warming comes from.
Those temperature data mannipulators didn’t count on us having the Wayback Machine. 🙂
This is important. I look at the ClimateReanalyzer.org website every day. I noticed a while back they must have changed something, as previously there were many more days like this when the anomaly was zero or close to it. Tony Heller would often point this out. So yes, something changed and they did not specify what, as far as I know.
I posted this on August 25, 2021. 0.0C T2m anomaly. Now the T2m anomaly for that date is given as 0.26C.
August 25, 2021 now given as 0.26C.
Must be horribly embarrassing for the University of Maine to be involved in fraudulent manipulation of data in one of their supported projects.
Nah, they’re probably being praised by all the other universities in the American Northeast for showing their faith in the “emergency”.
Have you heard that Hawaii has outlawed loud bursts of laughter.
From now on you are just allowed a lo ha.
Aloha Mark!
The future is certain, but the past is unpredictable!
I am so stealing that.
I can’t take credit. It’s a very old Soviet joke.
The older report and the newer report take in data from different weather models. The newer one used CFSv2, the older one used GFS. Meanwhile, the recent record global temperature is according not only to CFSR using CFSv2, but also to the ERA5 reanalysis using ECMWF, and the JRA-55 reanalysis.
Perhaps they were offered a nice pay raise if they show their dedication to the climate emergency cult.
More like a bribe in the form of increased grant money.
Change of personnel to a more zealous cult member, perhaps?
Twiddle a few “parameters”… etc etc
“Oh that isn’t warm enough.. I better adjust it !”
Read their disclaimer, it installs a lot of “confidence.”
Climate Reanalyzer
Information on this site is for educational purposes only without any implied warranties. The Climate Institute and University of Maine shall not be liable for damages or expenses resulting from the use of this website or data contained within.
It is not just temperatures being manipulated. Here is a bonza case of new math from 2 papers about fatalities from lead Pb poisoning in the US in recent years.
The Kaufman researchgate paper calculates about 10 deaths per year from medical diagnosis and death certificates in the USA – and dropping. The Lancet article suggests (but does not measure deaths) some 412,000 US deaths per year. The difference is 41,200 times greater and it demands explanation.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/10902871_Deaths_related_to_lead_poisoning_in_the_United_States_1979-1998
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(18)30025-2/fulltext
Those too young to have sampled the mathematical songs of mathematician Tom Lehrer, born 1928 and so 95 now, might enjoy this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UIKGV2cTgqA
Geoff S
Too many lies to keep straight.
Probably caused by a new Wall Street Journal campaign against lead in old electrical cables. Sometimes a good publication gets crazy. Several years ago the Consumer Reports started a campaign against arsenic in drinking water, declared target: zero. That’s a moving target, depending on our detection capabilities. I canceled my subscription, for now I still read the WSJ.
I had to give up on Science News and Scientific American for similar reasons, decades ago.
I still read the WSJ, also.
This “old electrical cables” thing seems legitimate.
What? They want to replace my substitute for licorice sticks? I chew on them all the time as a low-calorie substitute.
I especially liked the link to Tom Lehrer, haven’t heard that song in a long time.
The American study is dealing with cases of lead poisoning, with Pb levels in blood of about 45micrograms/decilitre usually found only in workers in lead industries. Environmental controls and regular testing over many years have dramatically reduced the incidents of lead poisoning in such industries. Amazingly the study cites consumers of moonshine as the largest population to succumb to lead poisoning these days!
The Lancet study deals with effects of the relatively by low levels of Pb found in the general population.
The studies are not dealing with the same thing.
“consumers of moonshine“
Many years ago (1970 ?) I saw a car radiator being used — still in the car —
At least I think that was what was going on. This was in a not so high-class section of
Atlanta, so we didn’t stop to chat.
James Snook,
They absolutely are talking about the same thing, deaths from Pb poisoning in the US.
You have completely missed the point. The post-modern way to count lead poisoning numbers is not from a medical diagnosis. It is usually a count of blood lead levels from patients otherwise unremarkably healthy. The blood lead levels are said to lower the IQ of victims, so the overall scheme is not measuring deaths, but rather inaccurate IQ scores.
Apart from dodgy IQ effects, there is little other medical harm diagnosed in the “victims” that is due to lead. Sure, high lead levels, way, way above these IQ level blood leads, do cause illness and death. The low level issue has been systematically corrupted mainly by a few academics who have made a name and a few quid out of imagination science. It is so entrenched by endless cries of “wolf, wolf” that people have lost interest in whether it is true or not. I have studied this quite deeply since I met Dr Allen Christopher’s (dec’d) who was by 1990 when we met, one of a few go-to international lead poisoning specialists. Allen had 40 years of research by then. The toxicity of lead has not changed, but the public relations advertising has. Geoff S
I’ll be honest I’ve done a bit of plumbing. If copper is prepared properly, with sanding, tinning, wiping, and minimal solder, I don’t see how a lot of lead would be leached into water. I wonder if we are not talking about lead PIPES like in Flint, Michigan.
In the UK we still have lead pipes made by the Romans passing water in the Roman Baths in the City of Bath. The rate of leaching is essentially zero, unless the water is very acid. Of course we now have lead free solder for plumbing, another non-problem solved for several times the price!
Not only several times the price, but these silver solders are a right pain to use. They require temperatures much higher than lead solders and you have a heightened risk of igniting surrounding structural materials.
412,000 deaths due to lead poisoning??? If population is 300,000,000, expected deaths would be in the order of 3,000,000. Thus the they are saying something in the order of 14% of total deaths are due to lead poisoning.
I know one case of serious lead poisoning – it was due to a BAD plumber who did a whole house using lead solder (and a householder who probably used to hot tap to fill the kettle).
In the UK it was in 1969 that domestic water pipes made from lead became illegal. Lead solder was legal for a further 20 years. When I was growing up it was standard practice to run the cold tap for a couple of minutes before filling the kettle first thing in the morning. Any house built before 1970 and not renovated to include modern pipework will have lead pipes. Soft water areas were more likely to be problematic as limescale from hard water coated the pipes and offered some protection.
I imagine there are a lot of people unwittingly ingesting lead in the UK
Fran,
What were the medical symptoms of that unlucky guy?
Did you remember his blood lead levels?
Geoff S
No matter what the Marxists peddle a^2 + b^2 = c^2 will always be fact
The cynic’s cynic, with a timeless quality.
“Vunce zer rockets are up, who cares vere zey come down?”
“That’s not my department, said Werner Von Braun.”
So – Climate Re-reanalyser?
“Is that what the University of Maine is doing? Any explanation?”
ALL the universities in New England have the climate emergency faith. If you’re an educator in any of them and lack the faith, you’ll soon lack a job.
That’s where the money is. Al Gore is a real genius 🙂
Above article’s first sentence:
“The claim that July 3-4, 2023 were the hottest days in the past 125,000 years is based on satellite data and computer modeling by the University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer.”
(my bold emphasis added)
That’s a witches’ brew if I ever saw one.
And do I need to comment further on how ridiculous it is to be talking about “average global temperature” using values asserted to good to ± 0.1 C, let alone good to ±0.01C as in the boxed data for August 20, 2022 overlaid on the first graph?
Apparently, the University of Maine doesn’t teach the mathematics and practice of using significant figures.
I have no doubt that there’s data manipulation going on . . . but it’s all equivalent to debating how many fairies can dance on the head of a pin.
Also, Mr. Milloy should know better.
Strange that they use only one significant figure for 2 m also. Yet, there are worse.
I knew a scientist that worked a stint in Antarctica and he had several vials filled with air from his time there. With a straight face he said something like this air from Antarctica contains 395.08 ppm CO2.
AI will make even the modern day scare fest computer modelling seem slightly accurate ish – they are already using it to show planet earth in 2050, roasted and barren, unless we all pay more taxes
Or, how many climate alarmists can dance on the head of a pin.
Or, how many climate alarmists are pin heads?
I would imagine most. 😉😊
“It’s a basic truth of the human condition, that everybody lies.”
Gregory House, M.D.
No, only politicians and alarmists
Both stand out above the rest as they lie all the time!
It is not called the Reanalyzer for nothing.
More Gleichschaltung orchestrated by the Propaganda Ministry. It’s hard to miss the heavy-handed coordination.
Correct Rich – they don’t even do subtle these days – it’s full on climate scare
It is all for the
gretagreater good. I just ran into this line in “Manabe’s Radiative–Convective Equilibrium” by Ramsawamy et al.:Values of equilibrium climate sensitivity near 4 K, the high end of the one-sigma range in the Sixth IPCC assessment (2.5–4 K for doubling of CO2 ; Forster et al. 2021) would be far less likely in the absence of a water vapor feedback comparable to that obtained by fixing relative humidity. MW67 is thus justly celebrated as laying the foundation for all estimates of the severity of global warming
You got to know when to celebrate..
More to the point, and my highest advice to the IPCC (of course, they won’t listen):
“You’ve got to know when to hold ’em, know when to fold ’em.”
— tip-of-the-hat to The Gambler, sung by Kenny Rogers
That’s a confusing bit of doubly negated technical writing. Simplifying:
“…sensitivity near 4 K…would be far less likely in the absence of water vapor feedback comparable to….fixing relative humidity”
Presumably this means that setting fixed RH in calculations results in high climate sensitivity of 4 C as a calculated answer.
But you can run Modtran at fixed RH and get a lot less than 4 C per CO2 doubling, Somewhat higher than fixed absolute humidity but not near 4 C….. So whatever Ramsawamy is saying is only partially correct.
First thing, anomalies are not temperatures! This is becoming one of my pet peeves. Anomalies are ΔT, and not temperature. They can be changed at wii by having a “”new” baseline that may or may not relate to past absolute temperatures at all.
Look at it this way. Anomalies can be manipulated to show warming when none really exists by manipulating baseline temps. That is one reason to also know what the absolute temps used to calculate the anomalies actually are.
This happens all the time. I illustrated dozens of examples in essay ‘When Data Isn’t’ In ebook Blowing Smoke. As just one example, NOAA changed its state by state reporting method from Drd964x in 2012 to ‘new and improved’ nClim Div in 2014. It gave all but 8 states ‘new and improved’ extra warming. For Conus, the former decadal change from 1895-2012 was 0.088F/decade. Under nClim Div, that became 0.135F/decade in 2014.
Climate science has been hijacked and is hopelessly corrupted.
Every Summer, especially in July, the hottest month in the N. Hemisphere, all the places with above average temperatures become the reporting locations for daily, alarmist climate crisis propaganda.
As if we never had record highs in July before the climate crisis. The decade of the 1930’s in the US makes this heat look like a picnic.
Almost half of the hottest state temperature records, that still stand were set in the 1930’s. 23 states.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_territory_temperature_extremes
From 1876-1878, the world lost 50,000,000 people, 3% of the population from a REAL climate crisis!
Causes of the Great Famine, One of the Deadliest Environmental Disasters
https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2017/12/15/causes-great-famine-drought/
Climate science, by an extremely wide margin, is the most corrupted scientific field but isn’t alone:
Summary and discussion of: “Why Most Published Research
Findings Are False”
Statistics Journal Club,
https://www.stat.cmu.edu/~ryantibs/journalclub/ioannidis.pdf
Climate Reanalyzer
Information on this site is for educational purposes only without any implied warranties. The Climate Institute and University of Maine shall not be liable for damages or expenses resulting from the use of this website or data contained within.
Seems they need to change that to…
“Information on this site is for propaganda purposes only… blah blah…
The past was erased, the erasure was forgotten, the lie became the truth – Orwell 1984
Very nice.
Steve,
I have screen grabs for 19th July 2022 and 13th August 2022 taken during the UK heatwaves, both then had +0.2C global anomalies, now looking as you have, they are showing +0.44C and +0.47C
The one/two dp rounding makes it impossible to say the exact difference, but without deeper investigation/understanding it does initially appear the past reference period has been cooled 2 or 3 tenths of a degree?
Well, the original Analyzer had its problems too:
That’s how winter temperatures in the southern hemisphere are “significantly higher” than last year.
Yea, like this
It is not appropriate to correct surface temperature anomalies to the temperature of the troposphere.
That’s a good one! Record Heat = No Data!
Got to love Heller! He exposes the climate change alarmist lies.
Everyone, especially the mainstream media, ignores the “Special Notice” on the Climate Reanalyzer “Daily 2-meter Air Temperature” page that they all screen shot and proclaim “hottest evah!”
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/
Special Notice (updated 13 July 2023)
Climate Reanalyzer is a data visualization website for climate and weather models and gridded datasets. Climate Reanalyzer is NOT a model. This “Daily 2-meter Air Temperature” page shows area-weighted daily means calculated from the 2-meter air temperature variable from the Climate Forecast System version 2 and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, which are publically available products of the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The purpose of the interactive chart and maps on this page is to provide daily snapshots of temperature as estimated from the Climate Forecast System. The mean global temperature increases in early July 2023, estimated from the Climate Forecast System, should NOT be taken as “official” observational records. It is important to note that much of the elevated global mean temperature signal was associated with weather patterns in the Southern Hemisphere that brought warmer-than-usual air over portions of the Antarctic.
Sometimes, reading through posts and comments here at WUWT, I suspect that I am hallucinating. This is one such occasion.
A simple glance at any reputable news channel reveals extreme heat waves, from the US to the Med, extreme flooding in Asia, record monthly global surface temps and record low sea ice extent in Antarctica… and on it goes.
This is actually happening in real time, right front of our eyes. Still you deny.
Delusional.
Summer tends to have heat waves and floods. There is nothing abnormal about that.
You often raise the point that U.S. area is only about 2% of global area so no one should conclude much from observations of it.
Yet, the satellite record encompasses less than 0.000001% of earth’s age or even just 0.4% of this interglacial period. Of course it is known that it’s cooler with more sea ice today than there was for most of the past 10,000 years.
Do you still DENY that there have always been floods heat waves etc etc
Do you still DENY that the current global temperature is well below most of the last 10,000 years !
There was NOT record monthly temperature, that is a LIE, and if you were paying any attention, you would know that.
Floods happen, especially in river valleys.
The current floods are not record levels.
The Antarctic has been explained to you as a weather event, but DENIAL is all you have.
You really need to start looking for REAL FACTS.
Not MSM hype and nonsense.
Then you won’t continue to look like such a GULLIBLE CHICKEN-LITTLE FOOL.
— I’m with Walter Lippmann on this — The ordinary citizen, he believed, was hopelessly gullible and ignorant – –.When everyone thinks the same, nobody is thinking.
You are funny. When I saw one report, they had Kansas, where I live, as part of the extreme heat with deep red. Guess what the temp was? 84°F, FOR GOD’S SAKE!
Middle of the U.S., in the middle of summer, and there is a risk of extreme heat. No s**t Sherlock. I think we have broken 100 one day. That’s a cool summer!
Yeah, it’s called summer. You know, when it gets hotter than spring and winter? I haven’t seen a summer in my lifetime that there wasn’t a heatwave somewhere, and often in several regions at once. Guess what will happen in winter? It will get cold. Then next summer it will get hot again and there’ll be more heatwaves. I know seasons are new when you’re a toddler but eventually you realize they do the same thing every year.
“but eventually you realize they do the same thing every year.”
Yes, he just needs a little more perspective. 🙂
At any point in time, somewhere in the world there is an extreme weather event occurring.
Funny how the modern media continually makes us aware of that. Yet when there was no media, the weather was mostly perfect, for no one knew about the extreme events elsewhere.
“Climate hoax” is just that, a hoax, scam, a trick meant to deceive. And the folks who are pushing it will do anything to continue the con. If they don’t, the grant money dries up and they would have to get real jobs.
Most are unsuited to real work and would perish.
Is Reanalysis a forecast not the past obs?
Hard to compare because parameters/definitions vary by source: baseline periods; coverage; just land, just sea or land&sea; at local weather station or gridded estimates/smoothing; 2m above surface, at actual elevation or lower troposphere; corrections/adjustments; just daily max or daily mean (avg of min&max); brief instant or 30min data; changes to instruments & methods; …. .
that the temperature at ground level has no bearing on the energy per cubic meter of the atmosphere measured is apparently immaterial to the lie on all levels
gravity doesn’t change
The increase in Antarctic temperatures is due to the weakening of the polar vortex in the lower stratosphere (it is strong in the upper stratosphere). The influx of water vapor over Antarctica means a loss of energy to the stratosphere, which sinks almost to the surface above the pole in winter. This is evidenced by temperatures below -60 C.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/07/17/2000Z/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-327.25,-82.36,490
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/07/17/2000Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-327.25,-82.36,490/loc=118.227,-75.527
Satellites detect more water vapor radiation over the Arctic Circle.
Sorry, over the southern polar circle.
2m world temperature is just a fantasy.
Recent global record high temperature claims are also based on the ECMWF weather model, the ERA5 reanalysis that heavily uses the ECMWF wqeather model, and also the Japanese JRA-55 and JRA-3Q reanalyses that use weather models. These weather models have input from multiple sources, including radiosondes aboard weather balloons and weather station readings.
As for the single day of 8/20/2022 having global temperature .1 degree C less than averaged over 1979-2000: This is an example of a pattern by Steve Milloy, of cherrypicking a single day of the year, or one country combined with one or two months of the year, or for about 9 years of one of the 7 most major global temperature datasets having towards its start one of the two greatest El Nino global temperature spikes since the one of 1878 and towards its end a triple dip La Nina.
After seeing another comment, I saw that what Steve Milloy was saying is that CFSR reported a different figure for 8/20/2022 that day than they did recently. So, I noticed they used different datasets (CFSv2 now instead of the GFS weather model in August 2022).
Afier I saw a comment below about a figure for a date in 2021 being changed, I checked to see if the 8/20/2022 report and the recent report on 8/20/2022 use the same dataset. They don’t. The older report is based on CFSR using the GFS weather model, the newer report is based on CFSR using CFSv2. Meanwhile, the recent global temperature records are also according to the ERA5 reanalysis using the ECMWF weather model (which mostly works better than the GFS one).