By P Gosselin
Germany’s heating debacle takes on even greater dimensions
The Federal Ministry of Economics, headed by Robert Habeck (Green party) has “GROSSLY MISCALCULATED” the cost of removing oil and gas heating systems from homes and buildings, and installing heat pumps in their place by 2045.
Germany’s heat pump cost estimate is spiraling out of sight!
Instead of 132 billion euros cost by 2045 for citizens, the real price tag will be a whopping 621 billion euros!
The total real price tag for all buildings will be 776 billion euros.
“According to calculations by the property owners’ association Haus & Grund, Minister Habeck and his ministry have miscalculated by several hundred billion euros,” reports the German online Pleiteticker.de here.
Habeck’s Federal Ministry of Economics estimated the costs for homeowners at around 135 billion euros by 2045, however “citizens will have to pay many times the calculated costs.”
The president of Germany’s property owners’ association, Kai Warnecke, told Bild newspaper, “The target is 500 000 new heat pumps a year, at an average cost of 40,000 euros per heat pump.” But the real number would have to be 1.5 million heat pumps each year if Germany wishes to reach its stated 2045 target.
Another huge mistake made by Habeck’s Ministry is forgetting that heat pumps have a lifetime of only 20 years, so already by 2045 the pumps will need to begin being replaced. Habeck pledges to support citizens in replacing their oil and gas heating systems, but provides no details on the plan.
Kai Warnecke warns of the huge costs in the pipeline for Germans: “If we assume that about 80 per cent of the buildings are in the hands of the citizens, they will have to pay about 620.8 billion euros of the total 776 billion euros.”
Already critics are calling the proposed bill incoherent and the feasibility of the project to be non-existent. Many homeowners are already struggling financially from high electricity prices and inflation.
More than 1 trillion euros for a statistically insignificant climate benefit
And when the costs of extensive home renovation get added in, the total price tag soars to well over a trillion euros. Yet, the impact on the globe’s temperature from Germany’s planned contribution will be statistically insignificant.
“The target is 500 000 new heat pumps a year”
“Heat pumps: UK to install 600,000 a year by 2028”
And it’s no different here. The Climate Change Committee has estimated that reaching net zero will cost £50bn a year.
I’m noticing a pattern here…
It’s a scam, they are lying like hell.
Why: 600,000 into £50 Billion gets £83,000
Which just about buys you a heat pump and an EV
There are (presently but mandated to grow by 300,000pa) 30 Million houses/homes in the UK
Then(1): 600,000 per year into 30 Million gives you 50 years
Then(2) : Each heat pump will double the typical (Gov’s own figure of 8kWh) household electricity consumption
And an EV doing just 8,000 miles per year will add the same again = tripling UK household electricity consumption
(Insurance companies count on 10,000miles pa)
What Planet Are These Clowns On
and they’re not ‘funny haha‘ clowns, they are scary clowns – been given far too much power and are hideously abusing it
EVs, and I suspect heat pumps, are never going to be affordable, not in the way current technologies are. But then, they know this.
The latest scare is [older] multi-storey car parks and EV weights…
It seems, if it ain’t broke, they have to break it.
The goal of the socialists has always been to collapse the economy.
They then plan to declare that this proves the private market doesn’t work, and that the government needs to take over everything in order to save the day.
The goal of socialism is Communism.
as the demand for heat pumps soars- you can be sure that the price for them will soar- simple supply and demand economics
Don’t forget the cost of people trained in how to install heat pumps.
And are these going to be air-source heat pumps or ground-source? The economics and efficiencies are quite different, especially in winter, and GSHPs might have scalability issues if everyone is expecting to extract enough heat from the ground to heat their houses, all at the same time, from the same ground…
My question is “How many heat pumps are able to be manufactured per year?”
After the first year you need 600,000 plus the failure rate replacements. And as noted it gets worse from there.
Swell, so they replace fossil fuel fired vehicles and heating systems with electricity. So tell me, how is the electricity made?
“I’m noticing a pattern here…”
a new rampant mental disease far exceeding Covid
well its not as if we havent been banging on about it for years..My MP is a bloke ca]lled Kwarteng and he was so clueless that they put him in charge of the BEIS -Ministry of Business, Energy an Industrial Strategy. having made a right guddle of that he had a brief spell as Chancellor of the Exchequer. Now as a good member of the WEF Global Leaders he will be polishing up his resume for a more pointless sinecure where he can wreck even more of the economy. With a bit of luck the citizens of Spelthorne will vote the idiot out of Parliament next election
1) How much is the cost of heat pumps going to go up, given this huge increase in demand?
2) Where are the trained installers going to come from? Has the cost of these huge training programs been included in the cost of this scam?
3) How much will the wages of skilled installers increase given the huge increase in demand for them?
I got a heat pump in 2004. for the first two years I saved about $200 on heating, then the price of gas went up and the temperature went down. As gas was my backup i just broke even and the utility got rid of the year-round HP rate and added a summer AC penality. Now that I am retired I am at home all day and in the winter 70 degrees is miserable when the air blowing from the HP is not warm enough to raise the humidity. At 70 degree F with the air blowing and a 25% humidity means you wear a sweater and still feel cold. Worse, it seems like most winters have been cold enough that more than half the time the gas is heating and the price has gone up the last two years.
Two years ago, the utility was pushing Solar panels and because I had a heat pump it took 20 years to reach break-even point.
German engineering has a reputation for being good. Good designs, well built etc.
German politicians like so many around the world are stupid, corrupt and greedy.
What is it about politicians that, on the whole, make them so bad for the world?
You just said it, they are stupid, corrupt and greedy.
I ask myself that question all the time as I travel the world. It seems just about every where I go I discover another government that amounts to little more than being the enemy of the people. And the G7 seems to be setting records these days for poor leadership. China and Russia aren’t doing any better.
it’s the human race- apes that came out of the trees- we shouldn’t expect more
Douglas Adams said in Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy that many thought thgat the agricultural revolution was not a good idea and ythat they always wanted to go back to being hunter gatherers. And that some of us thought that coming down from the trees was a bad idea that would not end well. Looks like they were right
The role of a politician has evolved into:
A politicians power is measured by the size of the budget he controls. Expanding it is a primary motivator.
same for the burreacrats (I prefer to use the word burros)- a big budget and be sure to spend it all
If a politician actually fixed a problem, then the politician wouldn’t be needed anymore.
During WWII, German tanks were widely recognized as engineering marvels.
The problem was that they were so complex and required such precision machining, that it was impossible for them to be made in the huge quantities required.
I believe it was Patton who once remarked that quantity has a quality all its own.
It’s not a statistically insignificant climate benefit. It’s a statistically insignificant reduction in the planet’s CO2 emissions, the effect on climate of which will be nothing whatsoever.
Wow! A Trillion Euros for imaginary Climate Change Mitigation. I wonder how much Adaption a Trillion Euros would buy? Like every German citizen could move to the Mediterranean coast of Spain? If the population of Germany is around 84 million, that’s about 12,000 Euros for every citizen, children included, so a typical family of 4 would get about 48,000 Euros, enough to pay the move. Here’s the hidden benefit to humanity: the Germans would end up selling their houses at discount, and sane persons could move into them, re-start normal power plants, work in the factories, and generally enjoy a great cultural setting. Win-Win.
Even if the world achieved NetZero (somehow) the money would still need to be spent on Adaptation anyway, as well.
Weather is not climate. Just because the climate has been stopped from changing (somehow) doesn’t mean the weather won’t happen. We will still need flood defences, reservoirs and energy for heating, cooling and emergency transportation. And infrastructure wears out after 30 years so what we already have will need replacing.
Mitigation is costs in addition to Adaptation. Not in place of Adaptation.
The reverse is not the same.
Adaptation is costs in place of Mitiigation. Mitigation has minimal impact on the costs of Adaptation.
Net Zero is impossible to achieve. You have to destroy the divine principle of Photosynthesis whereby plants breathe in carbon dioxide and breathe out oxygen. Photosynthesis was there at creation & it is not an evolving system. Plant food is also important for our food chain.
Uh, sorry Sam. From Scientific American:
“4.6 billion years ago — Formation of Earth
3.4 billion years ago — First photosynthetic bacteria
They absorbed near-infrared rather than visible light and produced sulfur or sulfate compounds rather than oxygen. Their pigments (possibly bacteriochlorophylls) were predecessors to chlorophyll.
2.4–2.3 billion years ago — First rock evidence of atmospheric oxygen
2.7 billion years ago — Cyanobacteria
These ubiquitous bacteria were the first oxygen producers. They absorb visible light using a mix of pigments: phycobilins, carotenoids and several forms of chlorophyll.
1.2 billion years ago — Red and brown algae
These organisms have more complex cellular structures than bacteria do. Like cyanobacteria, they contain phycobilin pigments as well as various forms of chlorophyll.
0.75 billion years ago — Green algae
Green algae do better than red and brown algae in the strong light of shallow water. They make do without phycobilins.
0.475 billion years ago — First land plants
Mosses and liverworts descended from green algae. Lacking vascular structure (stems and roots) to pull water from the soil, they are unable to grow tall.
0.423 billion years ago — Vascular plants
These are literally garden-variety plants, such as ferns, grasses, trees and cacti. They are able to grow tall canopies to capture more light.”
Sorry Dave, but you should mention that our Genome & DNA prove that we are a young earth, because our genes are passed from one generation to the next with the breakdown that occurs and loss inside defective genes passed on and on throughout generations means that if the earth was formed as you say, then we should not be here! “Billions” of hypothetical years are always suspect. According to the book of Genesis records, the earth is about 6,000 years old.
Please, Sam; you are not even wrong. If you are attempting sarcasm, you failed miserably.
MCourtney, while I admire your attempt at Reality, you need to WOKE up. Cold weather is Climate Change and hot weather is Global Warming, and only buying carbon credits will have any impact.
The 20 year life claim is BS.
Heat pumps are just air conditioners with an extra valve. Probably half the people on this thread have one that is more than 20 years old.
After the manufacture anything is stopped no more spares are produced. Twenty years later you’re into salvage for parts.
Ask any owner of a thirty year old car about spares.
Probably half the people on this thread have one that is more than 20 years old.
Well I’ll agree with that as I have a ducted Mitsubishi Electric RC heatpump aircon that’s over 30 years old in a renter. However that’s an old style original Ozone depleter and not a fancy current inverter job full of digital motherboards running on ‘green’ regulated flow refrigerant. Sure they’re more efficient power wise but they’re often dying in less than 10 years and forget the 5yr max warranty period if a gekko or other critter fries an outdoor unit motherboard.
we had a Lennox split system installed in my Dads 35000 sq foot house after the duct system in slab rusted. Right away we had problems with circuit board failures and 6 mos waits for parts! After spending $37000 for the system and associated labor costs.
the $37000 figure is not a typo!
I’m told that replacing my current heap pump system which cost $9,000 new in 2008 will cost $25,000 today, and that new US-DOE performance standards will raise that cost to roughly $30,000 or more when the new standards go into effect.
You had me !!! there for a moment.
PS: They don’t make them like they used to-
Daikin Split System – Outside Unit error E7 – Air conditioners (whirlpool.net.au)
They’re not allowed to remember as they have to be ever greener and saving the planet 😉
British Gas is currently pushing heat pumps and say “you can expect your heat pump to last 20 years or more” Not that reassuring.
“Heat pumps are just air conditioners with an extra valve”
We went through this in the US 60 years ago with a huge push for the “all-electric home”. Heat pumps didn’t usually last as long as cooling-only air conditioners because they were running for more hours each year including almost continuously on the coldest nights. Also, once you eliminate natural gas from your home you will pay more for hot water, cooking, and clothes drying. Not to mention the loss of energy redundancy.
And they are all failing. Look around any 20-30 year old suburban neighborhood. And its not just replacement costs; its the costs of life extension as well.
I hope mine makes it to 20. It’s about 17 now. I already had to replace the evaporator coil that rusted out, which wasn’t a cheap job. And government regulations have prevented me from being able to get cheap R-22 to re-fill the unit with, so they tell me that when the next major part fails, I will likely just have to junk the whole system (it’s a GSHP) instead of repairing it. Grrrr….
Good luck on getting a plain old AC unit to last 20 years! I just had to replace mine three years ago and it was less than 15 years old. It cost $8K to replace, partly because the unit is in the attic (retrofit of an old house that has hot water heat). My mom had hers replaced a year before mine (wasn’t as expensive because it was installed on top of her furnace instead of in the attic) but her old unit was a real fluke. It lasted some 35 years! Must have been exceptionally well made. Never had any refrigerant added to it and no maintenance done (save for replacing filters on the furnace and cleaning off the compressor unit) until the day it sprung a refrigerant leak. But that’s a rarity by far.
Be interesting to know the Make of her AC unit.
It’s a rarity because it’s a statistical outlier on the curve.
The Make has nothing to do with it.
Just manufacturing luck.
Do not ‘have’, nor need, nor want, either. I’m good, and I hope, for more than 20 more years.
I have a few friends with relatively new heat pumps that would laugh in your face.
“…for a statistically insignificant climate benefit”
The key phrase. A stupendous cost for no measurable benefit. The stupidity of these people is of criminal proportions.
The greenies always forget how much fossil fuels it will take to try to make their green revolution happen, it always implodes that way, because to eliminate fossil fuels eliminates the green revolution.
I wonder if they have enough qualified electricians to install all of the heat pumps, induction stoves, EV chargers together with the panel and utility drop upgrades that will be required for this fantasy?
The heat pump people in the UK say they can train installers in a week. On the basis of that week’s training the government is planning on installing 600,000 a year from 2028. What could possibly go wrong?
And were’s the electricity for all those heat pumps and EV’s going to come from ?
In a few days, they’re going to shut down 3 nuclear power plants to boot.
If this keeps on going, green policies are soon going to be a leading to a failed state.
They add some windmills 😀
“the total price tag soars to well over a trillion euros”
I bet that won’t even cover the costs.
Meanwhile, most EU nations are planning a big military build up- that will cost trillions.
Forty thousand euros to install a heat pump? Here on the west coast of Canada it’s more like $8000 – $10,000 Canadian or say 6,000 euros. Something is wrong with the numbers in Europe.
Have all these heat pump advocates never actually looked into how well they work (or not)? Germany is not a good climate zone for heat pumps. I live in North East PA, and have a split ductless unit. On days under about 25F it doesn’t work worth a damn. Under 5F not at all. Just for the hell of it, I ran it full time for some weeks and found that it cost twice as much in energy costs than my oil furnace, and that is this year with the murderous heating oil prices. And, BTW, it didn’t heat as well as the oil furnace. In summer, the AC mode is fine, and not so costly to run. Primary difference is the temp differential outside to inside required for comfort is much less in the summer, ergo it runs for less time.
It sounds like they’re not specifying the difference between air source heat pumps and ground source units. The ground source ones don’t have the temperature differential problem in winter that you mention, but they’re even more expensive to install due to all the digging required…
Exactly! Refrigeration units were designed to keep things cold. Which is something they do very well. Producing heat, not so much. Ever feel the air that comes from the discharge of your fridge, or the discharge from a dehumidifier? Even at room temperature (say, 65-75F) the discharge air will be luke warm at best, maybe like a hair dryer on the very lowest heat setting. Worse yet, once that luke warm air leaves the indoor unit (where the heat exchanger would be on a furnace) and passes thru the ducts in a home or other building, it will be blowing at room temperature! Who wants to feel cool air drafting out of registers on a cold day? Not me!
I can’t for the life of me understand the logic (if there is any to be found) of taking something which works great for its intended purpose and then trying to replace that thing with something that doesn’t work nearly as well.
Imagine in the pre-industrial era being forced to use horses to traverse steep and challenging terrain instead of donkeys or mules. If you have the choice of any of the three to go on an expedition into the mountains, the logical and far most effective choice would be the latter two. No one would use a carpentry hammer when the job they are doing requires a sledge hammer. No one would use a hand trowel to dig a deep hole instead of a shovel. But sadly, it seems governments want people to do just that!
Yes, good comments. My reasoning when choosing the GSHP over a combination of air-source air-conditioning plus fossil fuel combustion heating was mostly a theory of “why buy and maintain 2 devices when one will do”. Of course, the 1 was more expensive than the 2 put together, because of all the digging required, but then also significantly more efficient than either, resulting in a fairly short payback period. I am a big fan of efficiency 🙂 I also like to do things differently, on the theory that if you’re following the crowd, you’re probably going in the wrong direction 🙂
(My favourite efficiency bonus is the ability to use the GSHP in the summer to pre-heat the water going to my hot water tank before sending the remaining waste heat into the ground. I need my house to be cold and my water to be hot, so why not just move the heat directly from one to the other? Love it! The same pre-heat happens in the winter, but in that case it’s just pulling the heat from the ground for both the house and the hot water tank, so it’s still an efficiency win, just not quite as brilliant.)
You are correct that the forced air temperature produced by a heat pump is cooler than a combustion furnace, but that doesn’t bother me. I don’t need my floor registers to produce burning hot air. I do have an electric resistance backup heating unit just in case, which I haven’t needed so far, and a natural gas fireplace for some extra localized winter warmth if necessary.
If I were to do it all over, I might choose the 2 separate devices, just to have a way to burn lots of fossil fuels and produce lots of CO2 plant food, grinding the greenies’ gears as much as possible. But overall I think I am still producing my fair share with my car anyway 🙂
Greens don’t know anything about pocket calculators, if they know, contrary to expectations, they have no clue how to use it.
None of this bodes well for the future of Taiwan as a democracy. The leaders of the Pacific Rim nations have been invited (maybe ordered) to the NATO talks this year. My bet is that they will be told not to rock the boat with China. If mainland China wants more control over Taiwan then mainland China should have more control over Taiwan.
If Europe is going to make any inroads into weaning off oil and gas, it will need a lot of stuff Made in China to achieve that.
The German current account has to be heading into the red. Blame Russia not Trump. Trump told them they were idiots for being reliant on Russian gas,
How about local SMRs supplying heat to approx. 100-250K homes each, within about 20km? It’s waste heat anyway.
At about $2B each, roughly $10,000 each, but they need the electricity from the reactor anyway, so really the only extra cost would be for the insulated pipeline.
Certainly much cheaper than €80,000 ea for poor heating that puts extra load on the grid.
Will be very interesting to see how this works out in the nuclear community heating system currently being being built in China.
You misunderstand, the waste heat must be as cold as possible to make the turbine efficiency reasonable, the exhaust must be into a good vacuum, which is produced when the steam turns to water. With a conventional cooling tower we manage something less than ambient temperature outside. For district heating you will need more or less boiling water. This will reduce the generation capability considerably (simple thermodynamics) which is not a good idea in winter when the heat is really needed. District heating on the back of electricity generation has never worked well, but this is far too difficult for any politician trying to sell the idea to understand.
I think we need a canary in the coal mine scenario here. All fossil fuel power, heat and cooling needs to immediately be removed from all government facilities. All government employees homes or residences should have the same done. If heat pumps and wind and solar are the answer then we can move forward with the rest of the country. If not then bugger off and get off our backs, we will keep whatever generation works best for us.