Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
Well, the endless curiosity of my monkey-mind led me to some interesting datasets over at KNMI. They’re a variety of meteorological measurements made in Holland since 1964. I noticed that they have global solar radiation data, so I plotted that up to see the variations. I overlaid it with the CEEMD residual, which is what is left after the various cyclical variations have been removed. The CEEMD residual shows the overall trend of the data. (For more information on CEEMD analysis see my post “Noise-Assisted Data Analysis.)
Figure 1. Monthly Dutch solar radiation, January 1964 – January 2023
This was interesting. Solar ran about level for about five years, decreased for some twenty years or so, and then increased after that.
Next, I looked at the Dutch surface temperature, in the same manner.
Figure 2. Monthly Dutch surface temperature, January 1964 – January 2023
Fig. 2 shows a general slow rise in temperature over the period in question.
Now, my choice of these two datasets was not random. Remember that the central paradigm of modern climate science is the very simplistic view that changes in temperature are a linear function of changes in downwelling radiation.
Me, I think that’s nonsense. I know of no other complex chaotic system with that kind of simple input/output relationship … but that’s what mainstream climate science claims. I discuss this idea in my post entitled “The Cold Equations“.
So … here’s the relationship between solar radiation and temperature in Holland. In both cases, I’ve used the CEEMD residuals.
Figure 3. Monthly Dutch surface temperature, January 1964 – January 2023
Hmmm … not exactly a linear relationship. It starts with solar radiation dropping and temperature rising … and then that relationship reverses.
Hmmm indeed.
Now, this is just solar radiation. Unfortunately, the KNMI data doesn’t include downwelling longwave radiation. However, we have that data from the CERES dataset for the period from March 2000 to February 2022. Over that time the downwelling longwave radiation in Holland decreased by -5.0 W/m2.
And this in turn gives an overall (longwave + shortwave) sensitivity for that shorter time period of … 0.1°C per W/m2 … go figure.
Can we draw any overarching global conclusions from this analysis? No way. It’s just one small country … however, it does show that over the last ~60 years, there are many more things that affect the temperature of Holland than just downwelling radiation.
My best to all.
w.
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Willis,
Actually, you’ve demonstrated quite convincingly, that if you smooth data enough, you get smooth curves. You’ve also demonstrated quite convincingly that correlation does not prove causation.
Forgive me for asking, but with so many well read people in the forum, it surprises me that with all the talk about irradiation there is no mention of cosmic rays and their impact on cloud cover. I find that whole theory quite convincing….and would not be surprised if variations in cosmic rays over time could disturb a solar periodic cycle here and there. What is the problem with that (GCR) theory.
Per, I’ve written dozens of posts looking for some sunspot-cycle-related signals in surface weather data. Cosmic rays vary with the sunspot cycle, so if such an effect were significant, it should have turned up in my analyses … no joy.
My studies on this subject are here. Plus there’s a new one published just a half hour ago, it’s here. Enjoy.
w.