The Week That Was: 2022-10-01 (October 1, 2022)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “A man who is certain he is right is almost sure to be wrong.”– Michael Faraday
Number of the Week: 14
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: The weather disturbance in Southeast US disrupted travel resulting in a brief TWTW with a very brief This Week Section which is not summarized.
********************
Tim Ball – RIP: The world lost a gentleman and scholar with the death of Timothy Francs Ball at the age of eighty-three. Tim retired as a professor at the University of Winnipeg specializing in geography with emphasis on historical climatology. He emphasized the weather records of the Hudson Bay Company which covered the area of North America that drains into the Hudson Bay, most of central Canada. The area is also known as Rupert’s Land. The records show that warming and cooling in the area is natural, there is nothing unusual with today’s climate change.
Ball was co-author of Eighteenth-Century Naturalists of Hudson Bay which discusses the flora and fauna of Rupert’s Land as well as the careful efforts by members of the Hudson Bay Company to consistently record weather. Although these locations were far distant from one another, they provide a solid 200-hundred-year record of what occurred over a large, major area of North America.
In 2007, Tim earned the wrath of the climate change alarmists including the United States Geological Survey when he criticized the listing of the polar bear as an endangered species about to be eliminated by global warming. Based on the weather (climate) records, Ball did not consider the melting of the Arctic ice sheet unusual. A member of the US National Snow and Ice Data Center strongly disagreed and trashed the paper, without evidence why. We are now seeing that the polar bear is thriving due to a reduction in hunting (particularly the use of airplanes while hunting polar bear) and that the Arctic Ice Sheet is rebounding as it has in the past.
Tim long recognized the great failings of global climate models that are not tested against observations. He authored several essays on the importance of naturally occurring Rossby Waves. These eddies, or swirls, can become stationary. In the summer they can cause stationary high-pressure systems, causing “heat waves.” In the winter they can cause polar weather to descend on the east side of the Rockies, over parts of the Great Plains – a Texas “blue norther.” Among other matters, he understood the difference of behavioral pattern of plains and woodland buffalo (bison) and how natives hunted them.
Since he plainly spoke for science based on evidence, Tim was sued by several people. Perhaps the worst was by Michael Mann, which drained him financially and emotionally. Mr. Mann lost and was ordered to pay court costs in British Columbia, Canada. But Mr. Mann never did. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy – Tim Ball – RIP and Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
********************
Challenging the Orthodoxy: Recently retired from Plasma Physics Division, U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, Wallace Manheimer has authored papers on diverse subjects such as magnetic fusion, inertial fusion, and the energy/climate dilemma. His recent paper in the Journal of Sustainable Development, “While the Climate Always Has and Always Will Change, There Is no Climate Crisis” is noteworthy.
Chairman of SEPP, Tom Sheahen gave a presentation to the Irish Climate Science Forum and CLINTEL on the second most absurd push by climate scientists after CO2 – Methane. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
********************
Hurricanes: After a strong tropical storm weakens, it become an “extratropical” storm, but this has no clear definition as to either strength or latitude. It is extratropical because it began in the tropics and was a cyclone (a hurricane). Former hurricane Fiona hit eastern Canada and politicians shouted alarm of global warming; however, former hurricanes have hit Greenland as well, without such cries of alarm.
Hurricane Ian was a large strong storm that made landfall in the Fort Myers and Cape Coral area of Florida, where hurricanes seldom make landfall. But the claims that the hurricane was unprecedented appear false. After presenting records of prior hurricanes, Paul Homewood writes:
“To be blunt, 130 Kt wind speeds are not consistent with 940 MB pressure.
“And this is not the only evidence of inconsistency. Estimates of wind speeds from satellite data are largely based on the Digital Dvorak system, which measures temperatures within the cyclone.
“According to the satellites, Ian only peaked at around 120 Kts at landfall. Indeed, it briefly peaked higher on the 27th when winds were estimated at 110 Kts. The red line represents the actual measurements, while the green line is the published number, in this case peaking at 135 Kts just prior to landfall:” [Homewood gives charts supporting his statements]
The claim of 150 mph winds (130 Kt) may be quietly abandoned. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Changing Weather.
********************
A Mineral Cliff? As the leaders of many nations assert that solar, wind and other sources of energy are the solution to the [non-existent] problem of human-caused climate change, resorting to censorship of “climate change deniers” is very much in vogue. Further, advocates of the great energy-leap forward assume that there are no difficulties for obtaining the rare earths needed for this transition. See links under Censorship and Challenging the Orthodoxy.
********************
Number of the Week – 14: According to an article in Geosystems and Geoenvironment, there are fourteen rare earths or metals that will be needed to reach net zero. The most critical rare earths of metals are: Te (tellurium), In (Indium), Ag (silver), and Cd (Cadmium). See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Censorship
Jacinda Ardern calls for a Global Ministry of Truth to stop disinformation “weapon”
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 1, 2022
Jacinda Ardern is Prime Minister of New Zealand
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
While the Climate Always Has and Always Will Change, There Is no Climate Crisis
By Wallace Manheimer, Journal of Sustainable Development, Sep 8, 2022
file:///C:/Users/Owner/Downloads/6319af1906dc4.pdf
Methane: The Irrelevant Greenhouse Gas
By Tomas P. Sheahen, ICSF & CLINTEL, Sep 21, 2022
Slides and Video
The rush towards Net Zero risks global geopolitical instability, along with the loss of vital technological capabilities, according to a new analysis of the future requirements for rare metals.
By David Whitehouse, Net Zero Watch, Sep 29, 2022
Link to paper: Net Zero climate remediations and potential terminal depletion of global critical metal resources: A synoptic geological perspective
By David Groves, et al., Geosystems and Government, Sep 22, 2022
After Hurricane Ian: No Trend in Florida Landfalls, Global Activity Trending Down
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Sep 29, 2022
Data Driven Perspective on Ian and Hurricane Trends
By Joseph D’Aleo, ICECAP, Sep 30, 2022
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/perspective_on_ian_and_hurricane_trends1/
Challenging the Orthodoxy – Tim Ball — RIP
Tim Ball, R.I.P.
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 28, 2022
On The Death Of Climate Scientist Dr. Tim Ball
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Sep 26, 2022
Ball’s Bearing, Tim Ball, 1938-2022
By Mark Steyn, His Blog, Sep 26, 2022
RIP Dr. Tim Ball, Climate Realist
By Anthon Watts, WUWT, Sep 25, 2022
Please Donate Towards Dr. Tim Ball’s Funeral Expenses
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 30, 2022
Defending the Orthodoxy
Climate Scientists Want To Ban Dissenting Views
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 28, 2022
[SEPP Comment: They don’t want to be told their predictions are wrong, their evidence is lacking?]
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Everybody knows: global wildfires are getting worse
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 28, 2022
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Fossil Fuels Are the Greenest of Energy Sources
By Gregory Wrightstone, CO2 Coalition, Sep 26, 2022
The Pessimistic Rationalist and the Philosopher of Fossil Fuels
Review of Vaclav Smil’s How the World Really Works and Alex Epstein’s Fossil Future
By Rupert Darwall, Real Clear Energy, Sep 26, 2022
Gigantic Ozone Hole – 7 Times Larger Than Antarctica’s – Widens Over The Tropics
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Sep 26, 2022
Link to latest paper: Observation of large and all-season ozone losses over the tropics
By Qing-Bin Lua, aip Advances, July 5, 2022
The IPCC botched the math, E-C-E-C-S
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 28, 2022
Seeking a Common Ground
Euro energy crisis: A rare opportunity to recalibrate priorities?
By Vijay Jayaraj, CO2 Coalition, Sep 26, 2022
Models v. Observations
How has hurricane prediction skill changed? And a very warm, dry weekend ahead.
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Sep 30, 2022
A twenty-six-decade record of Atlantic hurricanes
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 28, 2022
From the CO2Science Archive:
Notable US Hurricanes In History
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 1, 2022
Hurricane Fiona
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 26, 2022
[SEPP Comment: A look at past hurricanes hitting Canada.]
Hurricane Ian
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 29, 2022
Long Term Trends In Atlantic Hurricane Activity
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 30, 2022
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
The Ice-Free Arctic–Part II
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 27, 2022
“What is astonishing however is that these buffoons are still in a job and living off the taxpayer.
In any other field of science, to be so consistently wrong for so long would have quickly led to a well-earned oblivion.”
There Is No Detectable Link Between Greenland’s Climate And Atmospheric CO2 Changes
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Sep 29 2022
Link to one study: Deglacial to Mid Holocene environmental conditions on the northeastern Greenland shelf, western Fram Strait
By Katrine Elnegaard Hansen, et al. Quaternary Science Reviews, Oct 1, 2022
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Hunger In America: Why Hasn’t It Already Been Ended?
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Sep 24, 2022
“And now we are told that that enormous generosity by the American people still did not fix the problem. So the White House will hold a new big conference, undoubtedly to give every advocate a platform to come and demand yet more and more spending.
If you’re wondering how it could be possible to spend the incredible sum of $182.5 billion in one year on food and nutrition programs in American without eliminating hunger, one potential answer can be found in the recent series at PowerLine about the Minnesota Feeding Our Future scandal. According to recent federal indictments, scammers in this one incident stole well over $200 million in federal food aid and used it mainly to buy luxury goods and real estate for themselves. “
[SEPP Comment: Over 60 years ago President Kennedy started the war on hunger, and this is what the taxpayer gets!]
Just like that: European Fertilizer production down 70%
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 26, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
The time travel crisis
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 28, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
We just fiddle this dial here and…
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 28, 2022
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Earth saved — by DC grifters!? U.S. State Dept appoints first ever ‘diplomat for plants & animals’ — & she just happens to be the wife of Biden’s Chief of Staff!
By Marc Morano, Climate Depot, Sep 29, 2022
Questioning European Green
Germany’s Power Supply Will Likely Be Plagued By Supply Gaps Until [by] 2030, Institute Finds
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct. 1, 2022
Energy Institute: supply gaps in the electricity market possible by 2030
By Die kalte Sonne , (Translated by P. Gosselin)
Questioning Green Elsewhere
No one told us it might actually cost money
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 28, 2022
“Going woke on climate could well mean going broke. As the Financial Post put it, ‘Immoral and irresponsible’: U.S. banks threaten to leave Mark Carney’s green alliance over legal risks’.”
Non-Green Jobs
German Industry Collapse: Companies Leaving In Droves…”Can No Longer Bear Cost Explosion”!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 25, 2022
Litigation Issues
All Eyes on SCOTUS With Climate Case on Deck
By Phil Goldberg, Real Clear Energy, Sep 29, 2022
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
UN Secretary General Windfall Tax Proposal Is Crazy
By Jeff Eshelman, Energy in Depth, Sep 20, 2022
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
EV Tax Credits Fund Income Inequality, Environmental Harm
By William L. Kovacs, Real Clear Energy, Sep 26, 2022
Energy Issues – Non-US
Race To The Bottom
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 25, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Net Zero electricity to promote growth???]
Would more UK gas actually bring down prices?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 25, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Gas has other uses in addition to electricity generation.]
As war on gas pipelines escalates, Britain faces national security crisis
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, Sep 28, 2022
As underwater gas pipes explode, ponder that a third of UK gas comes from an underwater pipe
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 29, 2022
Colder, Wetter Than Normal September Pushes German Gas Consumption +14.5%, Winter Gas Outage Looms!
By P Gosselin, Net Zero Watch, Sep 30, 2022
Net Zero Watch warns Liz Truss she will fail without a credible energy plan
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, Sep 17, 2022
Energy Issues — US
Clean Energy Week 2022: Powering Through the Red Tape
By Michael Mohr-Ramirez, Real Clear Energy, Sep 29, 2022
New England Power Market: Warnings Aplenty (blackouts, energy poverty too)
By Allen Brooks, Master Resource, Sep 28, 2022
Return of King Coal?
RWE readying three brown coal plants for restart from early October
By Vera Eckert, Reuters, Sep 26, 2022
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Renewables and the Great Texas Blackout: Baker Institute Study Tip-toes to Key Causality
By Robert Bradley Jr, Master Resource, Sep 29, 2022
“There is not only government failure in the quest to address market failure. There is analytic failure in identifying market failure that government is empowered to correct. Restated, problems attributed to markets are often the result of prior government intervention on close inspection.”
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Make Your Mind Up About Hydrogen, BBC!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 27, 2022
[SEPP Comment: It may not be the magic fuel?]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Must we say it again?
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 28, 2022
[SEPP Comment: The climate effect of electric cars will be trivial.]
Carbon Schemes
Oil giant Shell is leading the way on this $4 trillion climate change solution some say won’t work
By Marianna Cerini, Yahoo, Sep 26, 2022
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Bet the world, but not my superannuation [pension fund] on our climate models says modeler Prof Andy Pitman
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 30, 2022
Mann that was fast
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Sep 28, 2022
Police rescue passengers from powerless electric ferry!
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Sep 30, 2022
[SEPP Comment: As the PM demands censorship of supporters of fossil fuels!]
This seems a good thread to test if I’m now out of mod-purgatory.
So, just for a bit of fun… The Monday Grauniad Round-up:. What the sceptical are up against today.
I’m tired of the lies – The Guardian is committed to giving a platform to young activists as the climate crisis becomes a very real, present-day phenomenon
(Snigger…)
Not too late to insulate homes this winter, says Lord Deben
Charles abandons plans to attend Cop27 ‘following Liz Truss’s advice’
The climate crisis? We’ve been investigating it for more than 100 years
Climate warnings have been around for decades. Guardian reporting on the issue dates back as far as 1890;
Support urgent, independent climate journalism today
This summer saw vast tracts of parks and lawns scorched by drought in the UK, but more watering is not a sustainable solution. So what does the future hold for grass?
Ad nauseam
https://www.theguardian.com/uk/environment
What planet is Deben on? Can Nasa send a probe?
My small patch of lawn went totally brown this summer, as you would expect. Guess what happened next… yes it bounced back and now I have to mow it again.
strativarius formerly fretslider
I’m not
Hold on. I made an error. gimmmee five.
Ok Charles…
Brilliant!
Thank you very much
I believe the former fretslider should be Stratocaster not Strativarious.
You got the Strat bit right!
As Paul Homewood implied, “seldom” ≠ “unprecedented”.
From the HURDAT2 dataset, from 1851 to 2016 (I’ve not had time to update this one).
Almost nowhere on the US southern and eastern coastlines, from Texas to Maine, is at “zero risk” of having a hurricane make landfall there over the next 150-200 years.
Salute!
I also wonder how the greenies near Ft Myers are doing with their Teslas….hmmmm?
When I rescued my parents after Katrina, the two 6 gallon gas containers I brought made all the difference for the two vehicles we used. Dad had filled up before the storm hit, but there were no gas stations or “charging” posts within 120 or more miles east of NOLA/southern MS. No cell phone either!
Gums sends…
Climate Change Spells the Death of an Important Migration.
You have to love it when they make things up out of whole cloth. Of course, no imaginary new reason for alarm is likely to be questioned. If the threat is “existential” it must be real. For instance,
“Scientists report that alarming increases in atmospheric CO2 levels pose an existential threat to Spring Break. College students all across the northeastern United States have gone into mourning, knowing they will no longer have reason to frequent the strip clubs, bars and jails of Florida, Georgia and Alabama each spring. The anticipated economic damage to the entertainment and law enforcement communities of coastal communities is expected to be devastating.”
Yawn.
Please urge the House of Lords to host presentations by climate contrarians on renewables, and the Oxford Union to host a series of debates on climate change.
Yep – and, while you are at it, how about an ascent of Everest on a skateboard?
“The claim of 150 mph winds (130 Kt) may be quietly abandoned.”
The sooner, the better. There is no legit. support for the over estimated speed of the winds over land during the first 6 hours of the event.
Almost all the anemometers were 30-50 mph lower most of the time and the difference with this hurricane between the stated winds and measured winds was double any of them that I remember.
Calling this the 4th strongest hurricane in Florida ever and 22nd strongest ever in the United States is the biggest piece of DISinformation in US hurricane history…….by a wide margin.
This is based on the empirical data here:
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/89366/
I have the utmost respect for the NHC and even flew into Hurricane Gloria in September 1985 with their meteorologists on a hurricane hunter.
They’re very underappreciated for what their timely products and the thousands of lives they’ve saves. I really hope that they will reconcile the authentic data to better reflect the actual winds and strength of Hurricane Ian.
The thing that made this hurricane so unique was the huge storm surge, with compound flooding from the extreme rains in combination with the storm surge.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/89399/
“article in Geosystems and Geoenvironment, there are fourteen rare earths or metals that will be needed to reach net zero. The most critical rare earths of metals are: Te (tellurium), In (Indium), Ag (silver), and Cd (Cadmium).”
None of the above are rare earth metals!! This ranks ‘Geosystems and Geoenvironment’ as a social ‘science’ activist rag. Can one retract a whole publication?¿ Maybe this is even scientific fraud.
La, Ce, Pr, Nd, Pr*, Sm, Eu, Gd, Tb, Dy, Ho, Er, Tm, Yb, Lu (lighter elements above Lanthanum -Yttrium and Scandium are often included). Of the 17 rare earths, only Neodymium and Dysprosium are needed for windmills. The metals they list (plus a few others) are for solar. Promethium* isotopes are all radioactive so only a few hundred grams exist naturally from time to time. It is produced by radiation of adjacent Nd and Sm for a few applications Pm-147, one being the glowing swords for kids to play with -apparently harmless.