LIVE TODAY at NOON CDT: Climate Tipping Points – Facts or Fiction?

For decades, climate alarmists have been warning of impending doom from climate change. Such admonitions go back as far as 1989, when a senior U.N. official announced that “entire nations would be wiped off the face of the Earth due to sea level rise.” Of course that hasn’t happened, and neither has any other predicted climate disaster since. Yet that hasn’t stopped new predictions from being made.

One of the favorite disaster scenarios is a “climate tipping point”, where supposedly Earth’s conditions reach a point where they flip-flop from stabilty to chaos. This past week, a rash of stories have been circulated in the media on the topic due to a recent study that predicts 20 climate tipping points in Earth’s future.

Our Climate Change Roundtable team explores whether these are fact or fiction.

Watch live here at 12PM Central time today:

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Bill Toland
September 16, 2022 9:10 am

Why are climate alarmists pushing this nonsense? If these tipping points actually existed, they would have occurred during the Holocene Climate Optimum.

michel
Reply to  Bill Toland
September 16, 2022 12:59 pm

CAGW is most interesting as a social phenomenon. There is a paper to be written on the phenomenon of belief in it, and the advocacy of the policies which its adherents argue for, and its links to other fashionable beliefs in gender, race and so on.

One source for people who want to think about this is ‘Sick Societies’ by Robert B. Edgerton. Another is the material on elite overproduction about which Turchin has written extensively.

At some point, when overproduction of elites gets out of hand, and way outstrips the elite positions available, you get a sort of nihilistic destructiveness among the educated but under employed.

The force of action of this group is extraordinary, as are the violence of the movements it gives rise to which is only equalled by their irrationality.

Reply to  Bill Toland
September 16, 2022 3:26 pm

nope.

  • Greenland Ice Sheet collapse
  • West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse
  • Collapse of ocean circulation in the polar region of the North Atlantic
  • Coral reef die off in the low latitudes
  • Sudden thawing of permafrost in the Northern regions
  • Abrupt sea ice loss in the Barents Sea.

the holocene may have got you 90% the way there, and now the last 10% will be easier

ever watch an ice cube melt

Mr.
Reply to  Steven M Mosher
September 16, 2022 4:02 pm

I wondered what you’d been up to for the time you’d been away from here Steve.

So, watching ice cubes melt – did you post it up on YouTube for the world to enjoy?
With subtitles?

Bill Toland
Reply to  Steven M Mosher
September 16, 2022 11:42 pm

Your comment only makes sense if you think that today’s temperature is already at the level of the Holocene Climate Optimum. It isn’t and therefore your comment is meaningless drivel.

Redge
Reply to  Steven M Mosher
September 16, 2022 11:46 pm

ever watch an ice cube melt

Nope, I’ve got better things to do

Graham
Reply to  Steven M Mosher
September 17, 2022 5:31 pm

What have you been drinking Mosh.
There is no proof that any of this will ever happen .
If you knew anything about science you would know that the effect of CO2 on raising the earths temperature is logarithmic and even a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere would make little difference to the worlds temperature .
You should also know that the theory of global warming depends on the tropical hotspot and this has never been located .
Coral reefs flourish in warm water and any bleaching is not caused by warmer water .
Antarctic ice is stable and also Greenland’s ice which melts in summer and grows in winter .
You are an alarmist and if you had any science ability you would not spout such crop wtih an a.

September 16, 2022 9:54 am

Actually, there are tipping points. That’s how we get glacials and interglacials. They are fairly stable when switched to either state, but the glacial state is about 10 times longer than interglacials.
The warmunists would have you believe we’d switch to a ‘super-interglacial’, but the real thing to fear is dropping back into a real glacial. And, that will come to pass.

Ben Vorlich
Reply to  John Shotsky
September 16, 2022 10:31 am

It’s a bistable multivibrator, noisy hence the different periods between interglacials

John
Reply to  Ben Vorlich
September 16, 2022 7:00 pm

Doesn,t that make it an RS or JK flipflop?.

Duane
Reply to  John Shotsky
September 16, 2022 1:43 pm

Yes – the data indicate that the climate flips from warm to cold rather quickly, from tens to hundreds of years duration, but the warming events are strung out over thousands of years.

rho
Reply to  Duane
September 16, 2022 6:58 pm

And Schawb wants to block some of the sun’s energy with contrails.

ATheoK
Reply to  John Shotsky
September 16, 2022 7:00 pm

but the real thing to fear is dropping back into a real glacial. And, that will come to pass.”

The reaal thing to fear is entering the next interglacial with low CO₂ levels harming Earth’s food supply.

Redge
Reply to  ATheoK
September 16, 2022 11:50 pm

“but the real thing to fear is dropping back into a real glacial. And, that will come to pass.”

The reaal thing to fear is entering the next interglacial with low CO₂ levels harming Earth’s food supply.

The real, real thing is how much fear the elites can install in the proles to make us super compliant

BobM
September 16, 2022 12:02 pm

Looks to me like the only tipping point on the horizon is the freezing that’s going to occur in a lot of European homes this winter. It looks like there’s no stopping that one, and it is all caused by humans disregarding nature.

Reply to  BobM
September 16, 2022 3:28 pm
  • Greenland Ice Sheet collapse
  • West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse
  • Collapse of ocean circulation in the polar region of the North Atlantic
  • Coral reef die off in the low latitudes
  • Sudden thawing of permafrost in the Northern regions
  • Abrupt sea ice loss in the Barents Sea.
BobM
Reply to  Steven M Mosher
September 16, 2022 5:33 pm

Come on, Mosher, you’re more intelligent than that. You don’t really believe that crap, do you?

roaddog
Reply to  Steven M Mosher
September 16, 2022 6:24 pm

Yawn.

ATheoK
Reply to  Steven M Mosher
September 16, 2022 7:05 pm

“Greenland Ice Sheet collapse

West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse

Collapse of ocean circulation in the polar region of the North Atlantic

Coral reef die off in the low latitudes

Sudden thawing of permafrost in the Northern regions

Abrupt sea ice loss in the Barents Sea.”

  • Greenland Ice Sheet collapse – Nope.
  • West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse -Nope.
  • Collapse of ocean circulation in the polar region of the North Atlantic -Nope.
  • Coral reef die off in the low latitudes -Nope.
  • Sudden thawing of permafrost in the Northern regions -Nope.
  • Abrupt sea ice loss in the Barents Sea. -Nope.

All proven specious.

Derg
Reply to  Steven M Mosher
September 17, 2022 4:45 am

Has the Bitcoin dough run dry?

michel
September 16, 2022 12:52 pm

There is a very interesting piece published by the GWPF and linked to, with a story, by Paul Homewood.

This is Paul’s take on it, clear and informative as always:

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2022/09/16/rethinking-the-greenhouse-effect/

And he provides a link to the paper itself.

The very interesting key point it makes is fairly simple. Its that recent global warming has mainly occurred in Northern Hemisphere winters, when CO2 effects should be smallest. Therefore some other cause than greenhouse effect must have caused it. And the suggestion is that its changes in ocean currents, and a mechanism how that might work, is offered.

Well, read it and see what you think. Very interesting.

Yooper
Reply to  michel
September 16, 2022 1:31 pm

How about this “Tipping Point” that Cap wrote about yesterday:

https://electroverse.co/pole-shift-and-low-solar-activity-global-environmental-crisis/

michel
Reply to  Yooper
September 16, 2022 7:04 pm

Have to check the data cited on the cycle. First time I have come across the theory.

Reply to  michel
September 16, 2022 3:32 pm

GWPF invited the Royal Society and the Met Office to review this paper, and to submit a response to be published as an appendix to it. No reply was received.

gwpf, funny they invited us to submit papers on temperture records and to answer their formal questions

i did both. they lost the work

michel
Reply to  Steven M Mosher
September 16, 2022 6:57 pm

I don’t know or have anything to say about how they have behaved to you on other matters.

But what do you think of the paper itself and its argument?

Duane
September 16, 2022 1:41 pm

Well, there have been at least some tipping points, but they were pretty catastrophic events, like the meteor strike that resulted in the KP extinction event … and when plate tectonics forced the closing of the Isthmus of Panama resulting in the creation of the current Atlantic Conveyor current. A slow motion increase in CO2 or average planetary temperature? I defy the warmunists to prove any such event ever happened and resulted in one of their “tipping points”.

September 16, 2022 3:23 pm

 Such admonitions go back as far as 1989, when a senior U.N. official announced that “entire nations would be wiped off the face of the Earth due to sea level rise.” 

nope. some guy in the government, a former newscaster, made up some shit about the maldives

here is the thing about science.

  1. its not about what one guy says
  2. you can always find one guy to say trump lost or anything else
  3. you dont prove a case with what one guy supposedly said
  4. cite the guy then research his background, alice.

but the post isnt about the truth. its about finding one guy who made a mistake.

because one nazi supporter makes all republicans wrong.

one mispelling by eistein makes all his science wrong.

this type of reasoning is what we see in religion. not science.

Mr.
Reply to  Steven M Mosher
September 16, 2022 4:11 pm

You mean the religion that breathlessly reports one heatwave, one hurricane, one drought, one flood, one freeze as sure-fire evidence of imminent catastrophic climate change?

Redge
Reply to  Steven M Mosher
September 17, 2022 12:15 am

this type of reasoning is what we see in religion. not science.

Science examines empirical data and accepts evidence with an open mind regardless of the source. There are many instances of accepted scientific wisdom being proven wrong and being corrected.

Religion refuses to recognise alternative points of view and damns alternative opinions as heresy.

‘even if we have to redefine peer review’

Ergo, “climate science” as practiced by the warmunista cabal is religion, not science.

Derg
Reply to  Steven M Mosher
September 17, 2022 4:46 am

Was Mann a fraud?

Dennis
Reply to  Steven M Mosher
September 17, 2022 7:19 am

That was when the prediction was made that the Sydney Australia Harbourside Opera House would disappear under water by 2000.

High tide marks around Sydney (Port Jackson) Harbour remain accurate today and the Opera House remains high and dry.

While attending a G20 Meeting in Queensland POTUS Obama visited a university there and told students that he was very concerned about the health of the GBR and he wondered if he should bring his children to view it before it’s too late. That was 2014/15 from memory.

Last edited 15 days ago by Dennis
Brock
September 16, 2022 3:48 pm

If there is positive feedback (i.e. warming from something like CO2 causes more warming), what stops the temperature from increasing? Systems with positive feedback normally destroy themselves and are quite difficult to control. Any systems engineer can tell you that. And any physicist can tell you there is not enough energy imbalance to do much of anything.

Redge
Reply to  Brock
September 17, 2022 12:18 am

Clouds, although we don’t know nearly enough about the feedback loop.

Clouds are still poorly represented in climate models despite decades of research.

Brock
Reply to  Redge
September 17, 2022 9:04 am

I agree the data seems to suggest that clouds are the moderating factor. I see no reason to believe that it’s a positive feedback, and NASA seems to agree. The clouds, overall, cool the earth and moderate the temperature rise.

roaddog
September 16, 2022 6:23 pm

Expressing concern about coral reefs, at a time when the Great Barrier Reef just demonstrated its greatest health in 36 years is either hilarious, or the definition of insanity.
Through the Looking Glass.

Dennis
Reply to  roaddog
September 17, 2022 7:21 am

It’s blackmail, cooperate Australia or we will declare the GBR in serious trouble and frighten the tourists away from State of Queensland, and therefore impact adversely on tourism generally.

Not interested in the other coral reefs, GBR is the best known.

RickWill
September 16, 2022 7:50 pm

There is one very clear tipping point and it will be obvious within the current millennium. Ice will again accumulate on the land surrounding the North Atlantic.

The current phase of glaciation started about 500 years ago. The boreal autumns are getting less sunlight meaning the land is cooling faster than the oceans ahead of the boreal winter. That means the moisture convergence to northern land masses is accelerating during winter and more is falling as snow. It will gradually accumulate.

Once ice gets thick enough not to melt each year, it never gets hotter than 0C – look at Greenland and Antarctica – albedo always high as well. That means the whole place gets colder despite increasing spring sunlight.

Glaciation cometh. September sunlight 55N last 5kyr and next 5kyr:
 -5.000   327.041981
   -4.000   328.121119
   -3.000   327.267869
   -2.000   324.850279
   -1.000   321.200778
    0.000   316.673287
    1.000   311.759101
    2.000   306.938708
    3.000   302.427109
    4.000   298.709046
    5.000   295.980735

Yooper
Reply to  RickWill
September 17, 2022 4:30 am

Way back in one of the geophysics courses I subjected myself to the question was asked: “What does it take to start an Ice Age?”. Proff’s answer: “One year when all the snow doesn’t melt.”

eo
September 17, 2022 12:07 am

Al Gore had a tipper.The tips he got were quite good, it propelled his career. However, with climate the tips were way out, and people even started calling events contrary to his predictions, Gore Effects. Somehow he reached tipping point and got rid of his tipper.

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