INDIAN OCEAN (Oct. 08, 2008) Pirates leave the merchant vessel MV Faina for the Somali shore Wednesday, Oct. 8, 2008 while under observation by a U.S. Navy ship. The Belize-flagged cargo ship is owned and operated by Kaalbye Shipping, Ukraine and is carrying a cargo of Ukrainian T-72 tanks and related military equipment. The ship was attacked seized by pirates Sept. 25 and forced to proceed to anchorage off the Somali coast. U.S. Navy photo by Mass communication Specialist 2nd Class Jason R. Zalasky (Released) - Source Wikimedia, public domain

Climate Claim: Somali Pirates and Warlords Need More Access to Financial Services

Essay by Eric Worrall

According to European academic models, the reason the Horn of Africa is a crime and war torn horror show is locals don’t have enough access to Western financial services and high quality crops.

We built an algorithm to predict how climate change will affect future conflict in the Horn of Africa: here’s what we found

Published: July 6, 2022 8.33pm AEST

Jannis Hoch Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Natural Hazards, Utrecht University
Niko Wanders Assistant Professor in Hydrological Extremes, Utrecht University
Sophie de Bruin Researcher in Environmental Change, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

To try to project future risks from armed conflict in the region into the future, we – researchers from Utrecht University and the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, together with the Peace Research Institute Oslo and Uppsala University – created a new machine learning model to look at how different scenarios of armed conflict over the African continent could play out between now and 2050. Specifically, we wanted to know how armed conflict could be affected by climate change, as well as by future social and economic development.

Our results showed that cutting emissions globally and investing in socioeconomic development locally can reduce the risk of conflict. Doing this would also have the added benefits of helping local food production flourish and lowering dependency on the international trade market. But when we ran this scenario, the Horn of Africa still remained especially prone to conflict.

For example, it’s important that local farmers are given better access to banks and insurance, so if their crops fail one year they can start again the next. Farms need to prioritise crops that are more resilient against drought, such as quinoa, millet and sorghum. And financial organisations, governments, businesses and local communities must all be made responsible for lowering emissions and keeping climate change to a minimum

Read more: https://theconversation.com/we-built-an-algorithm-to-predict-how-climate-change-will-affect-future-conflict-in-the-horn-of-africa-heres-what-we-found-185627

I’m pretty sure there might be one or two social issues which need to be sorted out, before Western banks start issuing rural Somalis with credit cards.

Having said that the Horn of Africa isn’t an unrelenting horror show. I remember watching an interview a long time ago with a finance minister of Somaliland, a comparatively stable region of the Horn of Africa, who explained the reason for the stability of Somaliland is the LACK of access to Western banking services.

I can’t find the original interview, but there are plenty of others who came to the same conclusion.

In Somaliland, less money has brought more democracy

Unable to access foreign aid, Somaliland’s government has had to negotiate with citizens and business leaders for financial support – and provide stability and democracy in return

Nick Eubank
Fri 26 Aug 2011 16.00 AEST

As the humanitarian crisis in southern Somalia threatens millions of lives, Somalia’s little-known northern neighbour, Somaliland, is doing so well that its government recently offered to send aid across the border. That a small and relatively poor country that is also suffering from the ongoing drought would be in a position to help Somalia is itself remarkable; that Somaliland achieved this position without being officially recognised by the international community as a sovereign nation – and thus without being eligible for international assistance – is truly impressive.

But have Somaliland’s accomplishments come in spite of its ineligibility for foreign assistance, or because of it? Somaliland’s success – providing peace, stability and democracy in a region where all are scarce – is in large part due to the fact that the government has never received foreign aid. Because Somaliland’s government cannot access funding from the World Bank, IMF, or other major donors, officials were forced to negotiate with citizens and business leaders for financial support. This negotiation created the responsive political institutions that, in turn, have allowed the nation to fare relatively well in recent years and in the current crisis.

In one notable incident, the government was forced to implement democratic reforms in exchange for tax revenues from Somaliland’s main port. These revenues total less than $30m a year – a fraction of the more than $100m the government would have received from aid organisations if Somaliland had been eligible for international assistance. It is difficult to imagine that the owners of the port would have been able to exact the same concessions if the government had other funding options.

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/poverty-matters/2011/aug/26/somaliland-less-money-more-democracy

I suspect the absolute worst thing which could happen to Somalia is what the climate academics say their models advocate, more access to foreign cash. Dropping a truckload of Western money and financial “support” onto a government which has only recently and grudgingly accepted democratic reform, because this was the only way they could convince people to pay their taxes, could wreck the delicate accord which has hopefully set at least one part of Somalia onto the path to better governance, and undo all their hard won progress.

5 10 votes
Article Rating
37 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
fretslider
July 7, 2022 2:06 pm

We built an algorithm, er, that’s it.

Bryan A
Reply to  fretslider
July 7, 2022 10:03 pm

Well, one thing is certain, fund a country whose people depend in piracy for sustenance and you build a bigger and better (AKA more productive) pirate population with bigger boats and better arms. Their piracy intake is certain to double

Gordon A. Dressler
July 7, 2022 2:11 pm

You’re telling me the Somali pirates and warlords have plans to fight climate change?

Who knew?

Ron Long
Reply to  Gordon A. Dressler
July 7, 2022 2:40 pm

“…fight climate change?” not exactly Gordon. However, they do have plans to increase their access to financial institutions. What clueless idiots from Utrecht University do with their spare time is amazing.

Mike Lowe
Reply to  Ron Long
July 7, 2022 6:17 pm

I have gained the impression that a high proportion of these academics are misguided females. Are they struggling to gain recognition by selecting the most ridiculous subjects for study? Maybe feminism is not providing the answers which so many wish for them? “Equality” by all means, but surely not “equality of stupidity”!

Mac
Reply to  Gordon A. Dressler
July 7, 2022 3:36 pm

Speaking of Somali pirates. A woman dentist I knew retired and she and her husband went sailing around the horn of Africa and were boarded and killed. When I heard the news I wondered ..What were they thinking?

Fraizer
Reply to  Gordon A. Dressler
July 7, 2022 5:20 pm

Well, not fight it exactly. Kidnap it and hold it for ransom. Yeah, that’s the ticket.

2hotel9
July 7, 2022 2:37 pm

They are criminals and they live in desert regions. How are payday loans and unsecured credit/debit cards going to change that?

Tom in Florida
Reply to  2hotel9
July 8, 2022 9:30 am

Credit cards can be used to move them to liberal run cities in the U.S where they can steal anything they want with immunity.

2hotel9
Reply to  Tom in Florida
July 8, 2022 3:54 pm

Faux Blow Xiden is shipping them in enmass, why would they bother? Far easier to run credit/debit card scams inside America.

Simonsays
July 7, 2022 2:42 pm

The left have never found a problem that can’t be solved with other people’s money.

Steve Case
July 7, 2022 2:43 pm

Our results showed that cutting emissions globally and … would also have the added benefits of helping local food production flourish
_______________________________________________

Cutting emissions of CO2 will not make food crops flourish.

John the Econ
July 7, 2022 2:47 pm

Well, duh, of course. It’s hard to launder their booty and pay off people without access to decent banking services.

Michael in Dublin
July 7, 2022 2:53 pm

Anyone familiar with Africa and its history since WWII knows that greed, corruption, mismanagement, incompetence, lust for power and spread of Islam have played an important role in the dismal state of many countries. The rich mineral resources, the availability of huge amounts of water, the rich agricultural land offers the people opportunites if used wisely to vastly improve their standards of living. Flourishing farms have gone to wrack and ruin. Water schemes that have not been maintained have become worthless. The West has been happy to pour in arms into nations that can ill afford them. The UN, the World Bank, the IMF have done more to line the pockets of their management and staff than help impoverished people to become self supporting and independent people.

Joe Gordon
July 7, 2022 2:57 pm

I developed a computer simulation that showed that if I avoided the Somali Pirates long enough, gobbling up energy dots as I sailed around the region, I would eventually level up and score more points.

I ran this simulation with four Somali Pirates at a time. I then added a fifth, because, um, global warming. And to my absolute shock, it was much harder to score points and level up.

Therefore, proof that global warming is accelerating the Pirate crisis. This will likely lead to increased bombardment from asteroids, space invaders and even a tempest.

commieBob
Reply to  Joe Gordon
July 7, 2022 5:51 pm

You, and obviously many others, have it exactly reversed.

The decrease in the number of pirates over the last three hundred years is closely correlated with global warming. Global warming is obviously a result of not having enough pirates. link

Rud Istvan
July 7, 2022 3:10 pm

Meanwhile, the Netherlands government, advised by these idiots climate change colleagues, want to forcibly shut down 25% of Dutch agriculture because of cow farts and nitrogen fertilizer made from methane. Isn’t going too well. Farmers win when people starve; store shelves have emptied since farmer’s big tractors have blockaded food distribution warehouses in protest.

Despite their Dutch climate ‘piracy models’, the main Somali problems are two:

  1. Deep corruption, which allows piracy to co-exist (10% for the big guys?).
  2. Al Shabab, the local version of ISIS representing the ‘religion of peace’ so long as FGM, burquas, beards, and such are strictly enforced.
H.R.
July 7, 2022 3:32 pm

The fact that Pay Day Loans® doesn’t have an office in Somalia tells you everything you need to know. They have offices in neighborhoods where police won’t go.

Cash Advance / Payday Loans (amscot.com)

DonM
July 7, 2022 3:36 pm

“According to European academic models, the reason the Horn of Africa is a crime and war torn horror show is locals don’t have enough access to Western financial services ….”

mebbe the European academic institutions would like to step up, and directly invest a portion of their endowment in Somalia.

Then again, maybe they won’t. At a minimum they could model what would happen if they invested half of their endowment in Somalia. Then they could model what would happen if others peoples money was invested in Somalia.

Last edited 1 month ago by DonM
Bob
July 7, 2022 4:01 pm

How can super educated people like these be so mindless and clueless. It boggles the mind.

Danley Wolfe
July 7, 2022 4:20 pm

Maybe better posted on the National Enquirer newspaper for Climate Change … gossip post.

H.R.
July 7, 2022 5:04 pm

From an article Eric W. quoted:

Unable to access foreign aid, Somaliland’s government has had to negotiate with citizens and business leaders for financial support – and provide stability and democracy in return.”

That’s boots on the ground.

Then there’s the academic model, which spits out $#!T. Who ya gonna believe, boots on the ground or 0s and 1s?


My recommendation to those academics is to do follow-up interviews with Somali pirates to confirm their model.

I’m fairly certain Somali pirates accept PayPal for ransom payments made to free kidnapped Western travelers. If not, eh… there’s always the classic suitcase full of cash. That’s always good.

It will be an enlightening experience for the academics, and I am certain it will improve the inputs to their models.

waza
July 7, 2022 5:16 pm

“Western Financial Services” ?
Somaliland are already dealing directly with Turkey, Taiwan and UAE.
Having priority relations with the “west” is no longer mandatory.

Dena
July 7, 2022 6:09 pm

They can afford fast boats, gasoline to power them and enough guns to overpower a cargo ship. But yet, they don’t have the money to grow crops. Somehow I don’t think banks will help much. Heifer International makes a point of going into poor countries and giving them a leg up. I suspect they aren’t much interested in this part of the world because they will be robbed blind and be luck to escape with their freedom or their life.
There is a lot more wrong here than a simple response will solve.

dk_
July 7, 2022 6:43 pm

After all, access to Western financial services has worked out so well for Russia, Iran, China….

Kelvin Duncan
July 7, 2022 7:18 pm

There are plenty of poor countries that aren’t like those piratical horrors, so their model must be wrong. Surprise, surprise. Just like the climate models.

Rhoda R.
Reply to  Kelvin Duncan
July 10, 2022 3:49 am

I came to the conclusion – years ago – that you can write a computer model that proves ANY point that you want to make: Three lies: White lies, damn lies, computer models.

markl
July 7, 2022 8:16 pm

The alarmist claims attributed to climate change no longer surprise me and I’m sure the majority of people.

Philip CM
July 7, 2022 10:28 pm

Somalia, UN funding for 2021, $1.25bn [USD]

Seems to me they ‘re getting access to Western financial services.

As for agriculture, the United States, Canada, European Union and Australia, invest yearly in the Somali AgriFood Fund for small and medium enterprises in agribusiness in Somalia on fishing, agriculture, food processing, packaging, cold storage facilities, and livestock.

So maybe the problem with Somali pirates and warlords is that they are pirates and warlords and not farmers, fishermen, shepherds, or cattlemen. Just saying.

Redge
July 7, 2022 11:41 pm

When Somali pirates need western financial help, they just take it

Just ask Tom Hanks

Brazos Valley Chuck
Reply to  Redge
July 9, 2022 9:05 am

“Look at me. Look at me. I’m the captain now!”

DiggerUK
July 8, 2022 12:40 am

You should play to your strengths Eric, and not start commenting on politics.._

john harmsworth
July 8, 2022 1:09 pm

They have access to cash nearly everywhere they go. They just pull their gun and demand it.

Bruce Cobb
July 8, 2022 2:14 pm

How does a pirate talk on Talk Like A Pirate Day? Like a normal person?
Asking for a friend.

rah
July 8, 2022 10:46 pm

“According to European academic models, the reason the Horn of Africa is a crime and war torn horror show is locals don’t have enough access to Western financial services and high quality crops.”

LOL. Ukraine?

David S
July 9, 2022 5:12 pm

It seems to me that the solution to piracy is a few .50 BMG machine guns mounted on cargo ships with sailors trained to use them. RPGs might be nice too.

Rhoda R.
Reply to  David S
July 10, 2022 3:51 am

Pirates used to be hung upon capture. Old solution but was pretty effective in clearing out pirating in the Caribbean.

%d bloggers like this: