Claim: How a Cognitive Bias is Blocking the Rise of Electric Cars

[More in the genre of: If those stoopid peasants only understood what is good for them!]

A UNIGE team shows that underestimating battery autonomy is a major psychological barrier to buying an electric car.

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITÉ DE GENÈVE

What are the barriers to the adoption of electric cars? Although the main financial and technological obstacles have been removed, their market share still needs to increase. In a recent study, a team from the University of Geneva (UNIGE) investigated the cognitive factors that still dissuade many people from switching to electric cars. They found that car owners systematically underestimate the capacity of electric driving ranges to meet their daily needs. These results, published in Nature Energy, open up new avenues to speed up the electrification of mobility in addition to conventional policy approaches.

The increase of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere is one of the main causes of global warming. Among the GHGs is carbon dioxide – the well-known CO2 – of which the transport sector is one of the main emitters. Fossil fuel vehicles alone account for nearly 18% of global CO2 emissions. The electrification of the vehicle fleet has therefore become one of the major challenges of the energy transition.

The number of electric vehicles is increasing in many countries. However, they are still far from having the market share that would allow a significant reduction in road traffic emissions. In 2020, they represented only 1% of the global vehicle fleet, including hybrid vehicles. To meet the 2030 climate targets, this proportion needs to reach at least 12%.

It’s (almost) all in the head

Now that the main financial and technological barriers have been removed (more affordable purchase prices, financial incentives, denser network of charging stations), what factors are still blocking widespread adoption of this mode of transportation? A large part of the answer lies in the cognitive biases and shortcuts of car drivers.

“Until now, initiatives related to the energy transition generally focused on the technological and financial barriers to their realization. Psychological factors have been given very little consideration. However, many studies show that individuals do not automatically adopt the behaviors most beneficial for themselves or society, often due to a lack of access to complete information”, explains Mario Herberz, first author of the study and researcher at the Consumer Decision and Sustainable Behavior Laboratory of the Department of Psychology at the Faculty of Psychology and Educational Sciences of the UNIGE.

The solution: tailored information

By interviewing more than 2,000 car drivers of different backgrounds and ages in Germany and the United States, the UNIGE scientists identified the source of the cognitive biases that were holding them back from adopting an electric vehicle. “We observed that the participants systematically underestimated the compatibility of electric battery capacities available on the current market with their real needs,” says Tobias Brosch, director of the Consumer Decision and Sustainable Behavior Laboratory and last author of the research.


In other words, consumers wrongly believe that the autonomy of current batteries is not sufficient to cover their daily journeys. This underestimation is substantial, the researchers estimating it at around 30%. “To reassure people, the solution is not only to densify the network of charging stations or to increase the size of batteries, which require scarcer resources such as lithium and cobalt. It is the provision of information adapted to the concrete needs of drivers that will reduce their concern and increase their willingness to adopt an electric vehicle,” explains Mario Herberz.

250 kilometers, the ideal range

The research team found that more than 90% of car trips could be completed with vehicles with a driving range of 200 kilometers, a modest range among the currently available batteries. “The trend is to increase performance, but we have observed that a greater range, beyond 300km for example, does not increase the fit to daily needs. It would only have a minimal impact on the number of additional trips that can be completed with one electric charge. Increasing the size of the batteries is therefore not a key element in the energy transition,” says Mario Herberz.


This research, partly financed by the Swiss Federal Office of Energy, demonstrates the importance of psychological factors and access to relevant information when implementing the energy transition. It opens up new avenues for promoting the electrification of mobility with scientifically informed interventions, as a complement to conventional policy approaches.


JOURNAL

Nature Energy

DOI

10.1038/s41560-022-01028-3 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

News article

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

Counteracting electric vehicle range concern with a scalable behavioural intervention

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

19-May-2022

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randomengineer
May 22, 2022 5:30 pm

There’s about 1 million US citizens who live full time in an RV. No electric vehicle is going to be able to fit that use case, although one can envision some minor fraction of retirees towing an EV runabout behind their class A. No idea how one of these might get charged in the average KOA or independent campground though.

UNGN
May 22, 2022 5:48 pm

Guy brought his $130K Hummer to the car show last weekend. Super cool crabwalking around people in his 9,000lb toy. My current upscale neighborhood is 20% Teslas, but electric cars are still for the rich. I’ll tow my 8.000 lb trailer with my 22 year old 3/4 ton SUV and daily drive my 30 year old sports cars. When working, good condition electric cars are $12,000. I’m all in. Until then….

MarkW
May 22, 2022 6:12 pm

Although the main financial and technological obstacles have been removed

When exactly did that happen?

Rhoda R.
Reply to  MarkW
May 22, 2022 8:33 pm

They had a technological wet dream this morning?

ihfan
Reply to  MarkW
May 23, 2022 8:37 am

Yea. Loved that line, too. Last time I checked (a few minutes ago), electric vehicles were still outside of my price range. Perhaps for the elite the financial obstacles do not exist, and since they don’t tow or haul anything there are no technological obstacles.

MarkW
May 22, 2022 6:20 pm

When a leftist starts talking about how individuals are failing to do the “socially” optimal thing, get ready to start kissing goodbye to more of your freedoms.

Christopher Chantrill
May 22, 2022 6:38 pm

“electricifation of mobility.”

They sure can come up with the world salad.

Rod Evans
Reply to  Christopher Chantrill
May 23, 2022 12:25 am

Christopher, I think they are visualising a cattle prod……

Reply to  Rod Evans
May 24, 2022 6:11 am

Funny I tend to dream about cattle prods every time a democrat pundit opens their mouth. 😊

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Christopher Chantrill
May 25, 2022 3:43 am

Given the range limitations and the increasingly less reliable electric grid due to adding worse-than-useless ‘renewables’ to the grid, that should read more like “the END of mobility.”

J.R.
May 22, 2022 7:39 pm

Just more elitist snobs complaining that the ignorant rubes won’t follow their directives.

Thousands of people live in apartments. Are apartment complex owners expected to install hundreds of charging stations in their parking lots? How will the local electricity grid support that? How high will rents have to be raised to cover the construction and maintenance of charging stations?

I envision private companies building multi-level charging garages.

H.R.
Reply to  J.R.
May 23, 2022 8:02 am

I envision property insurance companies saying, “We wish you luck” to those multi-level charging garages.

MarkW
Reply to  J.R.
May 23, 2022 8:34 am

Those multi-level charging garages are going to have to be within walking distance of your apartment.

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  J.R.
May 25, 2022 3:45 am

Which the EVs then will be prohibited from parking in due to the fire ‘issue.’ D’oh!

Gary R Wescom
May 22, 2022 8:09 pm

The folks doing this study should have talked to the automobile companies and their sales people. Vehicles are bought based upon peak expected use, not some fictitious average.

MarkW
Reply to  Gary R Wescom
May 23, 2022 8:35 am

It’s the same kind of thinking being used when you hear them talking about how much energy wind and solar are able to generate in a given year.

Averages mean nothing if power, or your car, is not available when you need it.

May 22, 2022 8:25 pm

“Now that the main financial and technological barriers have been removed (more affordable purchase prices, financial incentives, denser network of charging stations),..”

Having the taxpayers foot part of the bill (via subsidies for manufactures, tax credits for buyers, etc.) is NOT removing financial barriers.

Martin
May 22, 2022 8:37 pm

The paper must have been written strictly for a Swiss audience. Price and technological parity has not been achieved worldwide. Nor will it for a very long time…if ever.

DHR
May 22, 2022 9:05 pm

OK, so an electric car will fill 90% of an average person’s daily needs. That means to meet 100% of these needs, the average person will need a gas or diesel car as well. Two cars to do the job of one! A similar calculus attends electric power generation by windmills and solar panels. They can provide some fraction of our societies daily needs but for the remaining fraction, a “backup” generation system powered by something that is dispatchable such as gas, coal or nuclear power is also needed. And of course, that backup must be able to fill all the needs since at many times there is no wind or sun. Two power generating systems to do the job of one!

Someday, some person in power is going to have to bring some sense to these issues. That day seems not to be now.

JoHo
May 22, 2022 11:08 pm

Since the invasion of Ukraine do you think, as I do, that many people are waking up to the fact that some energy, food and materials may not be readily available? The question is, have politicians put one and one together and come up with the correct answer? Uhmmm, maybe not.
If China keeps on rattling its sabre and eventually conflicts with Taiwan ‘how available’ will the 90% of rare minerals they own or control be available to Western countries for EVs, Solar panels etc? They will have their boot firmly on the neck of our future technologies.
Aghh, but this will never happen..,,,,!!!!

Tom Abbott
Reply to  JoHo
May 23, 2022 3:45 am

Biden said “yes” earlier today when asked if the U.S. would defend Taiwan.

The White House gaff correction team is currently trying to walk this back a little.

I’m glad Biden said it. I don’t know why he said it, or whether he meant it. His brain doesn’t work properly in the best of times, since he is a radical leftist, and now that he is cognitively challenged, it’s hard to figure what the guy is thinking.

But the good thing is the Chicoms don’t know what to make of it, either. It’s good to keep the Chicoms guessing. It’s good to have the Chicoms think the U.S. might come to the aid of Taiwan if Taiwan is attacked.

The White House spin team shouldn’t walk that back too much.

starzmom
Reply to  Tom Abbott
May 23, 2022 7:37 am

On the other hand, what other answer is there on Taiwan? If Biden says no, we won’t defend them militarily, he may as well roll out the red carpet for them.

Sturmudgeon
Reply to  JoHo
May 23, 2022 2:16 pm

Pretty much all of this has been outlined on Sundance’s, the Treehouse.

Rod Evans
May 23, 2022 12:10 am

Here is some “tailored” information that the authors at UNIGE might find helpful.

  1. Individual choice is always based on personal perceptions.
  2. Pushing only one side of story is called propaganda not tailored information.
  3. Battery powered vehicles are good at many things e.g. silent morning deliveries
  4. ICE vehicles are good at many things. e.g. work and adventure activities.
  5. Battery based motive power charge, is > 80% from fossil fuel burning generation.
  6. Virtue signalling green energy is a first world privileged activity.
  7. If ‘Green’ energy i.e. wind and solar was adequate for civilisation the industrial era would not have been required.
  8. More people live better quality lives today than have ever lived in past history thanks to the industrial era developments. The replacement of muscle power with mechanical fossil fuel powered machinery allowed electricity to develop.
  9. If you want to take a battery powered pick up into the wild country, make sure you have a 12kW generator and 10 gals of fuel in the back.
  10. The daily home delivery of milk via a battery powered milk float, may be closer than we think. As the grid supply of electricity becomes ever less reliable fridges could become just another .cupboard
Reply to  Rod Evans
May 23, 2022 8:01 am

“If you want to take a battery powered pick up into the wild country”, not just the “wild country”, either. Wait for Fall and the college football season. Thousands of pickups drive a couple of hundred miles each way for tailgating, sometimes for multiple days. And that would be for just two team’s fans converging on a college town for the weekend. When you see 50 or 90 thousand fans in the stadium, remember there are another similar amount in parking lots and fields still tailgating, often watching the game on TV.

I just don’t see many Lightnings making the 545 mile trip between Knoxville, TN and Gainesville, FL., for the Florida-Tennessee game, for one example..

Mike Edwards
May 23, 2022 12:56 am

the main financial and technological obstacles have been removed”

So let me check that out:

  • EVs are significantly more expensive than their ICE equivalents
  • EVs have limited ranges and charging arrangements make longer journeys tricky and slow at best

The cognitive bias here is with the researchers, not with vehicle purchasers.

Sure, most of us drive short distances for much of the time. But what happens when we need to drive long distances – to visit relatives, to go on vacation? Do they expect us to walk?

Even if charging points are available in the right places, EVs still make long journeys a real hassle. We only have one car in our family – and this car has to suit all our journeys, not just the short journeys. So EVs are not even on the agenda for us.

I think that hybrids look a good option – as long as the range on battery power is enough for the typical short journey. But even hybrids are more expensive than pure ICE models.

“Cognitive bias” – yeah, us consumers are real idiots when it comes to knowing which products really suit our needs and our budgets.

Reply to  Mike Edwards
May 23, 2022 7:43 am

Sure, most of us drive short distances for much of the time. But what happens when we need to drive long distances – to visit relatives, to go on vacation? Do they expect us to walk?
Even if charging points are available in the right places, EVs still make long journeys a real hassle. We only have one car in our family – and this car has to suit all our journeys, not just the short journeys. So EVs are not even on the agenda for us.
———————————————————————–

If a currently available EV is not suitable for your circumstances and requirements, then you obviously shouldn’t buy one. However, I would expect, as the technology and manufacturing processes progress, the price of EVs will fall and newer types of batteries will be developed which are safer (no explosions) have shorter charging times and provide much longer ranges on a full charge.

If you’re driving a long distance and you’re worried about being stranded with a flat battery, then use your nous and do a bit of planning. Search the internet for locations on your journey which have a charging station.

As EVs increase in number, the number of charging stations will also increase. For example, restaurants will probably have large parking areas with chargers for their customers, so you can recharge your EV whilst having lunch. If you’re on holiday, the motel or hotel will have charging stations. Also, your EV will have a meter that shows you continually, at the current rate of usage, how many miles or kilometres you can drive before the battery becomes flat.

What’s the problem??

Reply to  Vincent
May 23, 2022 9:35 am

Who is going to pay for all these chargers, and where is the electricity going to come from? You do realize that fast chargers require significantly more current than the average building can supply, especially if many of them are installed? Yep, a hotel on a mountain will easily be able to get a gigawatt of 440 volt service.

Sturmudgeon
Reply to  Vincent
May 23, 2022 2:25 pm

Yep… those batteries are sure being ‘developed’… taking a darned long time, though. Electric vehicles will NEVER replace gasoline/diesel vehicles, UNLESS this current insanity against low-cost, efficient, readily available (fossil ?) fuels, continues to clog the brains of politicians and ne’er-do-wells.

MarkW
Reply to  Vincent
May 23, 2022 2:27 pm

Every time I need to make a trip outside my neighborhood, I need to research where all the charging stations are first, and be prepared to wait several hours while everyone else who is taking trips outside their neighborhood also recharges their cars?

If the government wasn’t hell bent on forcing everyone into EV’s whether they want to or not, I would have a lot more respect for your opinion.

niceguy
Reply to  MarkW
May 26, 2022 5:17 pm

Even in Paris almost all stations I see are basic European home current type: mono 230 V, for 7 kW max. The new “Belib” triple “bornes” offer 22 kW (tri-phase I think, they say also DC is available…) but I see very very few.

I saw real fast charge slots (those with high power DC) only the Seine river – probably for tourists.

And Paris isn’t power starved! It’s a power hub.

So if it isn’t done here, how could it be done in remote areas like in highway stations?

Reply to  Vincent
May 23, 2022 4:54 pm

However, I would expect, as the technology and manufacturing processes progress, the price of EVs will fall and newer types of batteries will be developed which are safer (no explosions) have shorter charging times and provide much longer ranges on a full charge.”

Why would you expect any of this? Do you know of any advances that are even on the drawing boards or is this just blind faith?

“Search the internet for locations on your journey which have a charging station.”

And when this station is out-of-service and is the only one around for miles?

” For example, restaurants will probably have large parking areas with chargers for their customers, so you can recharge your EV whilst having lunch.”

You don’t live in fly-over country do you? Places like western KS and NE, or rural Montana?

Reply to  Tim Gorman
May 23, 2022 7:38 pm

Cor Blimey! Are you not aware of the major advances in technology since the industrial revolution. There are so many examples of useful products that were very expensive initially, but gradually became more affordable, together with increasing performance, as the technology and manufacturing processes progressed.

Just a couple of examples are the digital camera and the large screen HD television. Why would any reasonable person think the EV will be an exception to such progress?

It’s true I don’t live in a ‘fly-over’ part of Australia. I live in the outer suburbs of a city. I currently drive a Kia Cerato ICE vehicle with a range of around 630 km on a full tank, which is a range very similar to the range of the latest Tesla EVs. The main reason I’m not currently interested in buying an EV is the ridiculously high price, just as I’m not currently interested in buying an 83 inch OLED 4k TV set for A$13,000.

I don’t know why people seem to think there should be one product that suits all circumstances. If you are a wealthy and egotistical person who likes to show off, you’ll probably buy a Rolls-Royce or Ferrari. If you are a practical, pragmatic, sensible and rational sort of person with only a modest income, then you will investigate the pros and cons of various types of vehicles and choose the one which best suits your circumstances.

Reply to  Vincent
May 24, 2022 3:14 pm

I wouldn’t be so sure Vincent. So far they have been developing EV’s in the US since 1890 and they are still not ready for prime time. Look up Baker electric vehicles. They were very popular with women clean and quiet. Sales of the approx. $8000 cars dropped after 1917 when Henry Ford developed an electric starter for the Model T which sold for about $450. Woman didn’t like hand cranking engines but they did like saving money. There are no great leaps in battery power density on the horizon, but there is a steady stream of fever dreams from the EV cultists.
For a fairly comical aside, in 2014 an Tesla model S was almost beaten in a 765 mile race by a 1915 model T
Link
https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a15112705/2013-tesla-model-s-vs-1915-ford-model-t-race-of-the-centuries-feature/

Reply to  Vincent
May 24, 2022 3:17 pm

Are you not aware of the major advances in technology since the industrial revolution.”

Those are PAST innovations. Where are the FUTURE innovations? I can’t find any that are beyond the “might work” phase of research!

“I’m not currently interested in buying an EV is the ridiculously high price,”

And yet you still think the price will come down? How? The components used in the batteries will only go up as demand increases. Meaning the price of an EV will go up, not down.



Reply to  Tim Gorman
May 24, 2022 6:49 pm

“Those are PAST innovations. Where are the FUTURE innovations? I can’t find any that are beyond the “might work” phase of research!”
————————————————————————————–
Where are the future innovations?? What a silly question. All future innovations are in the future, which does not yet exist. Didn’t you know that?

Reply to  Vincent
May 25, 2022 10:49 am

If they don’t exist then why the assumption that they will? An equal assumption would be that they won’t. Then you make your judgements on what path to take based on that!

Mike Edwards
Reply to  Vincent
May 24, 2022 2:00 pm

What’s the problem??”

The problem is that you are in dreamland and you are not dealing with the realities of EVs today.

“use your nous and do a bit of planning”

Yes, I do use my nous – and that means that I don’t own an EV, but instead I have a vehicle that will take me everywhere I want to go, with zero hassle. That’s called planning.

Reply to  Mike Edwards
May 24, 2022 7:08 pm

Of course I’m dealing with the realities of EVs. For most people, including me, they are currently too expensive. For some people, including you, they do not yet have a sufficient range on a full charge and there is not a sufficient number of available sharging stations in your area, and the charging time is currently inconveniently long.

These are all valid reasons for not buying an EV, but all these issues are being addressed. I think it’s very foolish to assume that no further progress can be achieved.

Mike Edwards
Reply to  Vincent
May 24, 2022 11:55 pm

“it’s very foolish to assume that no further progress can be achieved”

Where did I assume that no progress could be achieved? If the glaring problems can be addressed, then I would certainly consider an EV. But neither do I assume that the problems will be addressed.

What really annoys me is that the UK government is aiming to force us all to buy EVs, whether or not the problems have been addressed. They are even going to ban hybrids, which seem the best option to me. Total stupidity.

Reply to  Mike Edwards
May 23, 2022 9:30 am

As usual, it is the researchers who are the idiots. Suffering from the Dunning -Kreuger syndrome–which says stupid people don’t know how stupid they are, and assume everyone else is even more stupid. A bunch of arogant, supercilious elitist idiots.

Ted
May 23, 2022 4:06 am

‘Why aren’t people buying cars that cover 90% of their daily needs in favor of ones that cover 100% of their needs and cost less? It must be that they’re ignorant.’

And they got paid (Swiss) tax money to push this idiocy.

Stephen Rowland
May 23, 2022 4:27 am

In cold climates, heat is an issue also. Nothing drains a battery faster than -20 temperatures.

May 23, 2022 5:46 am

Global Warming angst is a first world problem; EVs are a first world solution. Actually they are a 1% of the first world solution.

jeffery p
May 23, 2022 5:48 am

These people are completely convinced that getting their agenda accepted is just a matter of messaging. Frame it correctly, and everyone will fall into line. Anything that questions that messaging is, of course, disinformation.

May 23, 2022 6:06 am

They found that car owners systematically underestimate the capacity of electric driving ranges to meet their daily needs. “

Daily needs? What about non-daily needs? Like most people I do on occasion take long trips. What am I supposed to do to meet that need?

Now that the main financial and technological barriers have been removed (more affordable purchase prices, financial incentives, denser network of charging stations), “

What financial barrier has been removed for the poor/ middle class and those on fixed incomes?

Where has the “denser network of charging stations been installed? There are none near me! The closest one is seven miles away and it is one at a gasoline station that must be shared with the public.

“We observed that the participants systematically underestimated the compatibility of electric battery capacities available on the current market with their real needs,””

Who defined “real needs”? Are we to become nothing more than automatons? Drive to and from work and the rest of the time sit in front of the TV listening to the propaganda of the elites who are exempt from the rules the rest of us have to follow?

“The research team found that more than 90% of car trips could be completed with vehicles with a driving range of 200 kilometers, a modest range among the currently available batteries.”

How are we to handle the other 10% of car trips? Just not make them? Abandon the rest of our lives?

What a freakin’ joke this is!

J.R.
Reply to  Tim Gorman
May 23, 2022 9:58 pm

For the remaining 10% we will have to rent internal combustion automobiles. Perhaps the green overlords will allow them to exist in order to attain the Great Electrification.

Editor
May 23, 2022 8:03 am

Are there really this many INSANE people working on government policy?

Fact: There are about 1.446 billion cars worldwide today.

Quote: “In 2020, they (electric and hybrid vehicles) represented only 1% of the global vehicle fleet, including hybrid vehicles.”

Quote: “To meet the 2030 climate targets, this proportion needs to reach at least 12%..”

The Math: 14.46 million electric vehicles on the road today. Needed: 175 million electric vehicles in 7.5 years, So we must launch over 23 million new electric vehicles per year to meet the “target”.

The worldwide production of automobiles is about 100 million a year. Only about 3% of those are electric today.

There is already shortage of critical materials for that 3%.

The electric/fossil fuel gap is and will increase, not decline…..

FACT: Such a rapid transition is impossible.

Olen
May 23, 2022 8:21 am

There is no error in thinking about buying an electric car. It is a matter of getting what you want for the money you can afford to spend. Even in daily use not many want to wait hours for the battery to charge when 5 minutes at a gas pump will get more miles. There is also the insurance for the car and house that will go up with the chance of a fire. And batteries lose more power as they age compared to the gasoline engine.

My insurance just went up on my house because of the price to replace it. The price to replace it went up because of government restrictions on fuel to force us into green energy. Anyone thinking I wont notice that at the ballot box is nuts.

May 23, 2022 8:46 am

Yes, I shall NOT have ane EV.

Because…

… because I am biased.

Yes, I am biased:

I am completely one-sided: I refuse to abandon the scientific method and reasoning.

Reply to  Joao Martins
May 25, 2022 4:20 am

I seem to suffer from the same bias. I might buy a EV if I take up golf as a past time, 🙄

May 23, 2022 8:54 am

Duane if I want to start a snow plowing business here in the UP of Michigan would you advice me to buy an EV or ICE truck. When it’s -10 F, snowing, and dark so I need heater, wipers and lights how many driveways will I complete with EV?

Reply to  mkelly
May 23, 2022 9:37 am

Maybe your own…

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Slowroll
May 25, 2022 3:58 am

Maybe. LOL

Burgher King
May 23, 2022 9:08 am

Joe Biden: “When it comes to the gas prices, we’re going through an incredible transition that is taking place that God willing when it’s over we’ll be stronger and the world will be stronger and less reliant on fossil fuels.”

He said this in Japan today, confirming that fast rising fuel prices are a deliberate feature of his energy policy.

David Anderson
May 23, 2022 9:20 am

250 kilometers, the ideal range

Why would, say, 500 kilometers be less than ideal? Seems the “ideal” range is infinity.

Bruce Cobb
May 23, 2022 9:25 am

What we have here is failure to communicate.
EVs good, ICEs bad.
EVs good, ICEs bad.
One and one is three…