January 27th, 2022 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
The various weather forecast models are coming closer to a consensus: During Friday night through Saturday night, New England and coastal portions of the mid-Atlantic states are going to experience an historic snowstorm.
For eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island it looks like up to 3 feet of snow are possible with wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph. Here are the forecast snow totals from three weather forecast models: ECMWF, Canadian, and the high-resolution NAM. The GFS model (not shown) is still wanting to take everything farther offshore (all images courtesy of WeatherBell.com):
Now, we all know that global warming was going to make snow a thing of the past. But when we continued to experience snowstorms, that, too, was blamed on global warming. Global warming theory explains every outcome, apparently.
And the recent cold in the NE U.S…. if it happened to be a warm winter, that would be due to global warming. But unusual cold is also due to global warming, since it apparently causes sinister waviness in the jet stream.
So, beginning Saturday and into Sunday, brace yourselves, because global warming hysteria is coming.
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Yes, we are in for some extreme climate hysteria.
Batten down the hatches.
Whatever that means.
…that’s sailor talk for “Get ready for a storm.”
The GCW/FMI SWE Tracker illustrates the current winter records for 2014/2015, relative to the long-term mean and variability of the snow water equivalent for the Northern Hemisphere (±1 standard deviation calculated for 1982-2012), excluding mountains. The historical SWE record is based on the time series of measurements by two different space-borne passive microwave sensors. The current data combines these satellite measurements with groundbased weather station records in a data assimilation scheme. Updated daily by GlobSnow, a Global Cryosphere Watch initiative, funded by the European Space Agency and coordinated by the Finnish Meteorological Institute.
http://globalcryospherewatch.org/state_of_cryo/snow/fmi_swe_tracker.jpg
At least it will be light, fluffy stuff – easy to plow, snowblow, and shovel, and won’t stick to tree branches, making them susceptible to breaking and bringing down power lines. Even my 24 year old snowblower should be able to handle it. I hope. We’re supposed to get about 12″ here. But there will be drifts. Sunday should be fun.
All we’re getting is falling iguanas, Bruce.
The good news is, I don’t think the wind causes them to drift. Could you imagine 15′ iguana drifts? Traffic would likely be affected.
Arctic air is reaching the southeastern US. It will be over Alabama overnight.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/webAnims/tpw_nrl_colors/namer/mimictpw_namer_latest.gif
The Himalayas are having an extra cold winter this year. That cold is also pushing into China over the last several weeks. … https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=115.52,29.00,980/loc=109.422,27.952
Yes. Here on the beach in Fort Lauderdale forecast is 40F—a falling green iguana night. A bit further north and inland (northeast side of Lake Okeechobee) they are forecasting frost, so the vast citrus groves in Indian River county are activating their frost prevention systems.
Pro tip: Don’t park under trees.
😉
I wonder if such temperatures would make it safer to hunt Burmese pythons?
CO2, the magic molecule, explans everything now.
…and so it begins:
Lot of snow in Turkey and Greece this week.
It’s rivers of clouds in South Australia and the outback-
South Australia makes major emergency declaration over storm damage and flooding (msn.com)
Rail repairs could take weeks after outback flooding, Stuart Highway remains closed – ABC News
In arid areas it doesn’t take much for rain to hammer the clay platelets and seal them for the runoff to begin in earnest. As for those rail lines washing away the engineers do their technical best to allow for Mother Nature with culverts and bridges but with thousands of kms and extreme localised rainfall a possibility anywhere anytime you have to accept a repair system at the ready.
They did reroute the Ghan railway line upon upgrade from its original low lying path following the Afghan cameleers route to higher ground as you can see-
The Ghan – Wikipedia
So the common washaways and interruption are a rarity now but just a reminder we don’t control the weather.
It will be a balmy mid 50s this weekend on the central plains
Yes, the central U.S. will have a few nice days coming up, but then about Thursday we will get the next batch of cold air. This is the coldest part of the year. I’m already looking at the garden catalogs. Spring is just around the corner.
There’s no business like snow business.
If every weather condition is ascribed to global warming, then in reality no weather condition can be ascribed to global warming.
The only problem for the alarmists is the extreme weather they are claiming is caused by CO2 is not unprecedented. Similar severe weather has occurred in the past, when CO2 was not a major factor.
The alarmists claim CO2 will cause unprecedented extreme weather, but we don’t see any of that. The alarmists are seeing things which don’t exist. They are seeing what they want to see, not what is there. This is the way religious zealots look at the world, blind to everything but one view of reality. Evidence or lack thereof, will not shake this kind of belief.
All this white stuff isn’t snow (Viner & Gore stopped that yrs ago).
Don’t you realise the world is on fire … so it must be ash !!!
Griff will confirm
I’m having trouble understanding something. This graph (the annual growth rate of CO2) https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/gr.html strongly correlated with the satellite temperature record https://images.remss.com/msu/msu_time_series.html
I feel like I am missing something here and maybe I’m stupid but to me it looks like CO2 does correlate with satellite temperature.
Until it doesn’t ……
check 1940s and 1970s ….. yes no satellites in 40s . but temp records exist …
😉
CO2 correlates with temperature from 1979 to 1998, the only time in history
1950 to 1979 it was exactly negative
1925 to 1940 CO2 was flat but temps were higher than today
Millions of years ago CO2 was 5x today but cold
So you can’t trust your lying eyes if you only look at a fraction of the record
“I feel like I am missing something here and maybe I’m stupid but to me it looks like CO2 does correlate with satellite temperature.”
What you are missing is that early on, those in charge of forming a global temperature profile deliberately distorted the temperature profile of the world to correspond with the rise of CO2 in the atmosphere, so it is no surprise that the global temperature profile looks very similar to the global CO2 profile. It was done deliberately to sell the Human-caused Climate Change narrative.
The official global surface temperature record is generated within a computer.
If you look at historic regional, unmodified temperature records, from all around the world, you will see that they show a completely different temperature profile than does the computer-generated global temperature record.
The regional temperatures were recorded by human beings down through the years, and their records depart radically from the computer-generated global temperature charts.
One of these temperature profiles is wrong. Is it the one that humans wrote down or is it the computer-generated profile? See the Climategate emails for why the computer-generated temperature profile is not fit for purpose. And there are several good books that touch on the subject, too, if you are interested.
Below is a NASA link to the regional U.S. surface temperature chart (Hansen 1999) and along side it is a bastardized, instrument-era Hockey Stick chart.
https://www.giss.nasa.gov/research//briefs/1999_hansen_07/
As you can see, the U.S. chart has a profile that warms for a few decades and then cools for a few decades and then warms again for a few decades, within narrow bands, and you can see that the warmest temperatures in the U.S. were back in the 1930’s, not today, as the alarmist claim.
The U.S. chart and all other regional charts from around the world have similar temperature profiles and they show that it was just as warm in the Early Twentieth Century as it is today, which means that CO2 has had little to do with temperatures since it was just as warm in the 1930’s, but with much less CO2 in the air then.
The bogus, bastardized, instrument-era Hockey Stick chart was mannipulated to cool the 1930’s into insignificance in order to enable the promoters of Human-caused Climate Change to claim that today is the warmest period in 1,000 years and humans are causing this warming with their CO2 output.
The bogus Hockey Stick is a Big Lie used to sell a CO2 crisis. It is the ONLY thing the alarmist have to show as “evidence” and it is entirely made up in their computers, and in their minds, and does not represent reality.
The U.S. regional chart and similar ones from around the world represent reality.
The Keepers of the Temperatuire Data have been lying to us for years. Note Hansen’s lame explanation for why the U.S. chart and the bogus Hockey Stick chart look so different. It’s in the text on the webpage.
And ask yourself, why it is that temperatures are currently cooling when humans are pumping more and more CO2 into the atmosphere/ Temperatures are currently 0.5C cooler than the highpoint of the satellite era. CO2 is increasing yet temperatures are cooling. The alarmists have some explaning to do.
Note that the satellite era started in 1979, which was the coolest time since the 1910’s, so the warming from 1979 to today is to be expected, and the next thing to expect, going by history, is a couple of decades of cooling from this point.
Has the theory that a cooling effect is negating global warming gained any traction? That could be possible too no?
*Anthropogenic global warming*
It would make a great national climate intelligence test.
http://www.climate4you.com/images/MSU%20UAH%20GlobalMonthlyTempSince1979%20AndCO2%20NEW.gif
You asked this question on on Middleton’s thread and this thread, and got some reasonable answers. Are you just trolling, or is there something specific that is troubling you?
Correlation does not establish causation.
all they did was send a stupid meme questioning my intelligence and I didn’t get any good answer. I’m troubled by not knowing the whole truth and I don’t know who to believe so I have to make an independent observation for myself so I can rest my uncertainty. I am sorry for the constant questions but that’s how much I care about the environment
Mr. Walter: Your concern is noted. Sorry if we get short with you, but your questions have been answered, for anyone reading here. Caring so much for the environment, you should consider some quiet reading and avoid showing ignorance. That way, you can avoid making enviros look bad.
paul, if Walter is new he may not have seen those answers. We need to take that into account. I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect newcomers to go back through all the archives to find their answers.
As to the previous thread and replies, I don’t recall them so I can’t comment on those responses.
How to deal with snow:
From experience growing up in the UP of michigan.
I was in Jerusalem, Israel 2 days ago and observed 4″-6″ of snow fall overnight. It was a beautiful “global warming” event (sarcasm intended)!
High elevation in the hills
Not uncommon
Spent a week there in mid December 2016
Was amazing
Dr Roy, don’t join the chorus by using terms like “historic”.
It’s a northeaster, it’s a big storm
But they happen
Using words like that is what Griff does every day
Historic
Extreme
Unprecedented
All false tells
And
Like everything else we need a new scary term to denote something sinister and new
Nor’easter is so 1900s
Atlantic winter death bomb cyclone vortex
Something like that
“Atlantic winter death bomb cyclone vortex”
Wasn’t she Colossus’s offsider in “Deadpool”?
All common weather events are now unique and “Historic”.
This trucker is just happy he isn’t going east or north on Sunday. I’ve driven in enough of that stuff. A few years ago they sent me into Boston to pick up a load the morning after they had received more snow in 24 hours than any time on record.
That same winter on another trip, brokerage tried to send me down into Connecticut into the teeth of a fast approaching Nor Easter. When I called in and told them that I would go but don’t expect to see me for a couple days because I would be stranded and besides I was sure the shipper would send their people home well before I got there, even if I did make it. They called the shipper and sure enough they said they were shutting down because of the weather.
Another time I was blasting across the I-90 MA turnpike when it was supposedly closed. There was no one out there but I was getting through just fine. When I made it to the place I was to deliver they were working but to dock one had to back up an incline and that had not been plowed. It took me a dozen tries to get into the dock and when I did I hit it pretty hard. There was no choice. If one slowed too much one would slide off to the side.
Before I was on e-logs I trucked out of Kansas City headed to my terminal in Indiana in a blizzard at night. Had to use the rumble strips to be sure I remained on the paved surface. I did not see a salt shaker or plow all that way across Missouri until I got to the St. Louis area. Not even on in Columbia. Took me 14 hours to make a trip that usually takes 8.25.
Many a time while driving in those conditions I have tilted the steering wheel up, then slid the seat up all the way, then opened the window and reached out with my left arm and grabbed the drivers side wiper to pull it away from the windshield so it slaps back and knocks the accumulating ice off the end of it so the wiper blade can again contact the glass. Even with the defroster on 100% heat and fan it can’t keep your blades from accumulating slush that freezes.
One time heading up I-79 in PA heading for Tonawanda, NY (North and NE side of the Buffalo area) the Jumbotron said that the I-90 Throughway was closed at Hamburg going into the Buffalo area due to heavy and fast falling lake effect snow. I diverted down I-86 and then cut north on US 219. My intention was to go north as far as could and then go east and work my way up to come into Tonawanda from the east. I got there and when I backed into the door at the Unifrax facility on Fire Tower road there was not a flake of snow on the ground or in the air. This when 14 miles SE as the crow flies they were in a snow emergency. Lake effect snow is some strange stuff.
This trucker is just happy he isn’t going east or north on Sunday. I’ve driven in enough of that stuff. A few years ago they sent me into Boston to pick up a load the morning after they had received more snow in 24 hours than any time on record.
That same winter on another trip, brokerage tried to send me down into Connecticut into the teeth of a fast approaching Nor Easter. When I called in and told them that I would go but don’t expect to see me for a couple days because I would be stranded and besides I was sure the shipper would send their people home well before I got there, even if I did make it. They called the shipper and sure enough they said they were shutting down because of the weather.
Another time I was blasting across the I-90 MA turnpike when it was supposedly closed. There was no one out there but I was getting through just fine. When I made it to the place I was to deliver they were working but to dock one had to back up an incline and that had not been plowed. It took me a dozen tries to get into the dock and when I did I hit it pretty hard. There was no choice. If one slowed too much one would slide off to the side.
Before I was on e-logs I trucked out of Kansas City headed to my terminal in Indiana in a blizzard at night. Had to use the rumble strips to be sure I remained on the paved surface. I did not see a salt shaker or plow all that way across Missouri until I got to the St. Louis area. Not even on in Columbia. Took me 14 hours to make a trip that usually takes 8.25.
Many a time while driving in those conditions I have tilted the steering wheel up, then slid the seat up all the way, then opened the window and reached out with my left arm and grabbed the drivers side wiper to pull it away from the windshield so it slaps back and knocks the accumulating ice off the end of it so the wiper blade can again contact the glass. Even with the defroster on 100% heat and fan it can’t keep your blades from accumulating slush that freezes.
One time heading up I-79 in PA heading for Tonawanda, NY (North and NE side of the Buffalo area) the Jumbotron said that the I-90 Throughway was closed at Hamburg going into the Buffalo area due to heavy and fast falling lake effect snow. I diverted down I-86 and then cut north on US 219. My intention was to go north as far as could and then go east and work my way up to come into Tonawanda from the east. I got there and when I backed into the door at the Unifrax facility on Fire Tower road there was not a flake of snow on the ground or in the air. This when 14 miles SW as the crow flies they were in a snow emergency. Lake effect snow is some strange stuff.
You might appreciate this:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/watch-as-a-snow-plow-driver-launches-a-spray-of-slush-into-oncoming-highway-traffic-leading-to-a-40-car-accident-on-the-ohio-turnpike/ar-AATa7So?ocid=msedgntp
When I was assigned to a team in Co. A, 3rd Bn., 10th SFG(A) I was a PFC fresh out of the Special Forces Qualification course. I was a medic and the rank for my slot was SSG. The lowest rank on a team is Sgt.
Since I was the ONLY private on a team in the whole Battalion at the time I got stuck with crap details. One of those was going to Bus driving school to become an instructor so that I could train other guys in Bus driving and thus the Battalion would not have to rely on support personnel which may or may not be available to transport teams to training or to an Air Force Base when being deployed.
So when 3rd Bn, did it’s annual winter warfare training I would drive a bus load of us from Camp Ethan Allan to Smugglers Notch for downhill ski training and then back after the training day was done. Of course I was also taking part in the training on top of driving and making sure that the Bus got started during the nights when the temp dropped below zero. Thankfully it had ether start.
So one day on the way back to our billets I was behind a big “V” plow that was throwing a lot of snow. I could not believe it when some moron in VW behind me decided to try and pass us and the plow.
The car disappeared in the solid wall of heavy snow and then reappeared about 30 ft, off the road half buried in the snow. We kept going and everyone on the left side of the bus that saw it was laughing.
Thank you for your service. I know that is usually reserved for the military, but people forget (or never even think about) how their food gets on the grocery shelves or how the other products they use daily make it to market. Granted, you are not (typically) getting shot at like the folks in the military, but you are on the road for long hours in sometimes dangerous conditions, away from your family, and doing tough work often for maybe not that much money compared to a desk jockey like myself. I appreciate and respect the job you do… Thank you!
Thank you. But I think I make pretty good money right now.
My bring home pay this week with a day of OT was $1,377.70.
Last week it was over $1,900.00 because of 2 days OT and a $300.00 fuel bonus.
Add to that the tax break for per diem I get when I file.
My income is well above the mean for the region I live in here in central Indiana and the rumor is they are going to up the pay for us guarantee drivers another $100.00 over our $1,600.00 base salary soon.
My bring home these days is about what my gross pay was pre-covid and pre hyperinflation.
These days about 95% of my runs are for the auto industry. The other 5% are for Nestle’s, hauling milk, cookie dough, pasta, or Boost, which is the Nestle’s version of Ensure.
Rather, I would say it won’t be a big snowstorm, but a big freeze in the southeastern US.
Boston (Logan Airport) Snowfalls:
Feb. 17-18, 2003: 27.6 inches (70.1 centimeters)
Feb. 6-7, 1978: 27.1 inches (68.8 centimeters)
March 31-April 1, 1997: 25.4 inches (64.5 centimeters)
Feb. 8-9, 2013: 24.9 inches (63.2 centimeters)
Jan. 26-27, 2015: 24.6 inches (62.4 centimeters)
Feb. 16-17, 2003: 23.6 inches (59.9 centimeters)
Jan. 22-23, 2005: 22.5 inches (57.1 centimeters)
Feb. 9, 2015: 22.2 inches (56.4 centimeters)
Jan. 20-21, 1978: 21.4 inches (54.3 centimeters)
Jan. 1978 (I believe) when I lived in VA we got 2 feet of snow from a massive storm. Curiously, that was before global warming, aka climate change, had been discovered. I seem to recall the TV weatherman, Bob Ryan, calling it… “bad weather”.
Joe Bastardi pointed out in this weeks Saturday Summary that the term “Bomb Cyclone” was one they were using back in the 70’s when he was a student at Penn State.
But the never ending hype will continue. If Joe and the European model are correct.
Going to be a rough one for lots of people in 4-5 days. Very cold with sleet, freezing rain, and snow stretching from Central Texas through Texarkana and Oklahoma. Wind turbine shutdown is possible again though not likely to be as bad as last year.
The forecast band for winter weather is from Central Texas all the way up through Indiana in the north to Kentucky in the south and continuing in a band on ENE all the way to Maine. Snow in the north predominates but further south freezing rain and sleet is most likely going to be the biggest problem.